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Records with Keyword: Technoeconomic Analysis
Logistics Management of Agri-Industrial Waste for Energy Valorization in Uruguay
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Biomass, Energy Systems, Modelling and Simulations, Optimization, Supply Chain, Technoeconomic Analysis
The energy recovery of agro-industrial residual biomass offers a pathway to reduce fossil fuel emissions in thermal processes while valorizing waste. In practice, however, the primary bottleneck is logistical: feedstocks are geographically dispersed, with low bulk density and high moisture content, driving up collection, pretreatment, and transport costs. This work combines geospatial processing with mathematical optimization to design a multi-stage logistics network. The model incorporates intermediate densification options and technology selection (chipping, pelletizing, or briquetting) to supply one or more final waste-to-energy plants. The case study focuses on Northeastern Uruguay, considering forestry residues, meat-processing waste, and rice husks. We formulate a multi-period Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) model aimed at minimizing the total annualized cost, encompassing transportation, logistical operations, capital investment, and plant O&M, subject to supply constrai... [more]
Techno-economic analysis of hydrogen refueling station with on-site production from a novel blue H2 and N2 production system
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Distributed Production, Hydrogen, Hydrogen Refueling Stations, Modelling, Technoeconomic Analysis
This study presents a techno-economic modeling framework integrating a modular blue H2N2 production unit with a hydrogen refueling station (HRS) across capacities ranging from 0.1 to 4.0 tpd. A model-based approach is used to size key process and refueling components and to estimate the resulting hydrogen retail cost. The analysis indicates that hydrogen retail costs range from 4.6 to 10.8 USD kgH2-1 over the considered capacity range. Relative to alternative on-site hydrogen production pathways, the proposed system demonstrates better cost-effectiveness while meeting clean hydrogen production standards. The approach is particularly suitable for regions with established natural gas infrastructure, as it leverages existing supply chains. Overall, the results provide actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders in planning future hydrogen refueling infrastructure.
Development of a process modeling library for the design and optimization of beverage production plants
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Dynamic Modelling, Energy Efficiency, Matlab, Modelling and Simulations, Process Design, Simulation, Technoeconomic Analysis
Today, beverage production plants are planned and designed from the material-handling context as a packaged-goods production facility, not as a process plant. Therefore, a lot of potential for optimization exists. This paper presents a new approach to the design of beverage production plants according to the design of process plants. A component library for the simple creation of beverage production plant process models is developed. All steps in the plant design process can be accelerated and automated to be used for the high number of existing and new installations around the world. As first use case an energy optimization upgrade for existing Carbonated-Soft-Drink production lines is described to save cooling and heating energy in warm climates.
Energy Integration Via Heat Pump in a Simulated Fluidized TSA Column for CO2 Capture from Biomass-Derived Flue Gases
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Adsorption, Carbon Dioxide Capture, GAMS, Modelling and Simulations, Technoeconomic Analysis
We present a steady-state, optimization-based techno-economic study of a continuous fluidized temperature-swing adsorption (TSA) system for post-combustion CO2 capture from biomass-derived flue gas, using two adsorption stages and one desorption stage with integrated heat-pump thermal management. The GAMS/CONOPT4 model couples molar and energy balances, Toth adsorption equilibrium, fluidized-bed hydrodynamics and literature cost correlations. Optimization yields CO2 purity of 96% v/v and 95.5% recovery at low, safe pressures with particle Reynolds numbers of 2-11, indicating near-minimum-fluidization operation. The nominal capture cost is 87 USD/tonCO2 with an internal rate of return of 42%; utilities comprise 49% of annualized costs and the adsorption compressor dominates equipment capital. Disabling the heat pump increases modeled capture cost to 124 USD/tonCO2, highlighting the heat pump's decisive role in reducing energy demand and costs. Adding adsorption stages lowers modeled cos... [more]
Analysis and comparison of technologies for the regeneration of a capture solution in DAC absorption systems
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Aspen Plus, Carbon Dioxide Capture, Life Cycle Analysis, Modelling and Simulations, OpenLCA, Technoeconomic Analysis
Direct air capture is gaining significant interest due to its potential to achieve carbon-negative emissions. With the aim to reduce the energy consumption and in line with the electrification of chemical processes, the absorption direct air capture system is integrated into a bipolar membrane electrodialysis cell stack for solvent regeneration and carbon dioxide release. The scheme solution is characterized by carbon dioxide bubbles inside the cell reducing efficiency so that other regeneration schemes have been proposed in the literature. A direct comparison of those is missing in the existing state of the art: the present work wants to fill this gap. In addition to the above process, the reaction of the rich solution with a weak organic acid and the use of both nanofiltration and reverse osmosis membranes are considered in other process schemes. The three case studies are modelled in Aspen Plus software with the aim to compare the energy consumption and total cost while the environm... [more]
Safe and Sustainable by Design Pharmaceuticals through Combined Computer-Aided Retrosynthesis, Techno-Economic Analysis, and Life Cycle Assessment
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computer-Aided Retrosynthesis, Life Cycle Analysis, Modelling and Simulations, Quality by Digital Design, Safe-and-Sustainable-by-Design, Technoeconomic Analysis
Recent advances in computer-aided retrosynthesis (CAR), flow chemistry, and continuous manufacturing collectively offer new opportunities to enable environmentally sustainable development and manufacturing practices across the pharmaceutical development and manufacturing value chain. However, the implementation of these methods and technologies remains scattered and fragmented, preventing full realization of their potential to address one of the most urgent needs in the pharmaceutical and related sectors. This work introduces a holistic digital framework for the design and optimization of an end-to-end manufacturing process for paracetamol (acetaminophen). The framework integrates Green-by-Design synthetic and purification routes of the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) aims to deliver cost efficiency and robust quality, safety, and environmental sustainability assurance. The approach integrates AI-driven CAR with plant wide modelling, Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA), and prospecti... [more]
In silico solvent selection for green and cost-effective pregabalin crystallisation
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: crystallisation, environmental impact analysis, Pregabalin, solvent selection, technoeconomic analysis
Identifying cost-optimal yet environmentally friendly crystallisation processes in the production of small molecule pharmaceuticals is a highly complex task, since multiple solvent systems often exist which could be used to purify a given drug to a similar standard. It is, however, rarely possible to test each of these solvent systems within a laboratory setting, since this would be time-consuming and incur large material costs. It has, therefore, been suggested that process modelling tools should be used to screen different crystallisation processes available to produce a new drug prior to studying them experimentally - essentially allowing a shortlist of promising process candidates to be created. Indeed, it has been shown by several authors that this sort of work can be conducted without any need to establish the crystallisation kinetics associated with each drug-and-solvent combination considered: the reason being that crystallisation processes may be defined as simple solid-liquid... [more]
Techno-economic Analysis of Alternatives for Carbon Capture and Utilization and Green Ammonia Production from a Cement Plant Flue Gas
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Aspen Plus, Cement industry, Green ammonia production, SNG production, Techno-economic analysis
The manufacturing industry is the second largest emitter of CO2, with the cement industry being one of the main contributors (7-8 % of the global emissions). Carbon capture and utilization (CCU) technologies are promising decarbonization solutions for the cement industry, addressing both fossil fuel-related (40 %) and process-derived emissions (60 %). Within a cement plant, producing synthetic natural gas (SNG) from captured CO2 is particularly suitable, as it is sufficient to fully replace solid fuels in the rotary kiln. On the other hand, the use of zero-carbon fuels, such as green ammonia, is also recognized as a promising approach for decarbonization. In this work, a superstructure was developed to explore alternative routes for producing SNG and green ammonia from CO2 and N2 in cement plant flue gas, respectively. The routes were modelled in Aspen Plus® V14, and their economic viability was assessed. Currently, the most promising route, at a cost of 109 €/tonne of flue gas, involv... [more]
Optimising Waste-to-Energy Power Generation in Trinidad and Tobago
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: life-cycle assessment, mixed-integer linear programming, supply chain optimisation, sustainable power generation, techno-economic analysis, waste-to-energy
Trinidad and Tobago emits 11.3 metric tonnes of CO2-eq per capita per year, making it one of the highest per capita per year greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters globally. An estimated 87% of these emissions are linked to the industrial sector, including power generation. This study aims to reduce the national environmental impact of the power generation and waste disposal sectors, with the goal of reducing the country's reliance on natural gas and promoting sustainable power generation via waste-to-energy (WTE) pathways. This work seeks to implement a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework, along with techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) to determine potential sustainable objectives with respect to T&T's power system. The study implements supply chain optimisation considering single objective optimisation (SOO) with life-cycle (LC) endpoint externalities included. The key constraint of the system was the production of sufficient electricity to sustain the... [more]
10. LAPSE:2026.0261
Feasibility of Integrating Sugarcane-Derived Biogas into the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle for BECCS Power Generation
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: BECCS, Biogas, Biomethane, Energy Efficiency, Technoeconomic Analysis
The development of energy technologies with low CO2 emissions is increasingly important for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. In this context, power plants based on the Allam-Fetvedt Cycle appear promising because this cycle (introduced in 2012) features inherent CO2 capture. In this context, its association with biogas as fuel enables its application as a Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) system. This study evaluates the technical, energetic, and economic feasibility of an Allam-Fetvedt Cycle power plant fueled by biogas. The methodology is based on detailed process simulations performed using Aspen Plus® v14. Two biogas production scenarios were assessed: Case 1 and Case 2, corresponding to the processing of 8 and 24 million tons of sugarcane per year, respectively. The economic analysis indicated a high capital investment, primarily in the Air Separation Unit (ASU) and the Balance of Plant (BOP). Nevertheless, a significant reduction in the... [more]
11. LAPSE:2026.0253
Integration of computer aided design and emerging technology development based on a series of scale-up demonstration tests; Case study of thermal energy storage
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Adsorption, Energy Systems, Life Cycle Analysis, Modelling and Simulations, Technoeconomic Analysis
Early-stage system-level assessment of emerging technologies is essential for achieving climate neutrality and a circular economy; however, such assessments are often constrained by the lack of representative life cycle inventory data. In thermal energy systems, performance strongly depends on scale, making direct application of laboratory- or bench-scale experimental data potentially misleading in life cycle assessment (LCA). This study investigates the influence of experimental scale on system-level evaluation using a zeolite-based thermal energy storage (TES) system as a case study.LCAs were conducted using performance data from laboratory-, bench-, and pilot-scale experiments and compared with predicted commercial-scale performance derived from numerical simulations. The TES system stores waste heat via water vapor desorption from zeolite and generates pressurized steam using a moving-bed with indirect heat exchanging system. Heat recovery ratios of 36%, 50%, and 61% were obtained... [more]
12. LAPSE:2026.0247
Techno-Economic Assessment of Decarbonization Pathways for Methanol and Formaldehyde Production: A Superstructure Optimization Approach
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Energy Transition, Formaldehyde, Industrial Symbiosis, Methanol, Superstructure Optimization, Technoeconomic Analysis
This study aims to compare different pathways for achieving CO2 emission reductions during the production of methanol and, subsequently, formaldehyde, i.e., its major derivative. An equation-oriented model of the formaldehyde sector is developed, incorporating a superstructure of various transition pathways including feedstock switching (biomass, biogas, waste), process electrification (Power-to-X), and CO2 capture. The OSMOSE tool is used to evaluate the superstructure and compare the alternative production pathways on the basis of thermodynamic, environmental, and economic key performance indicators for future scenarios (2025 and 2050). Furthermore, to cope with the limitations of predefined pricing scenarios, a parameter sweep is performed, exploring a broader set of economic conditions and seeking to identify the zones of economic optimality associated with each configuration through the solving of a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming cost minimization problem, while generalizing the... [more]
13. LAPSE:2026.0238
Optimizing Renewable Energy Storage Systems to Accelerate Sustainable Data Center Deployment
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Alternative Fuels, Energy Storage, Optimization, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Technoeconomic Analysis
Behind-the-meter generation from variable renewable energy is a potential pathway for new data centers to obtain power more quickly and more sustainably than interconnecting to existing electrical grids. Energy storage is needed to accommodate the variability of wind and solar energy across multiple timescales. Hydrogen from electrolysis and ammonia made from this hydrogen can be used as fuel for dispatchable power generation while offering lower $/MWh storage costs than batteries. In this work, we analyze the economics of using hydrogen, and/or ammonia along with batteries in hybrid energy storage systems to enable data centers to be powered by 100% renewables. We perform this analysis using an optimization model for the selection, sizing, and coordinated hourly operation of constituent energy storage technologies toward minimizing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). The model uses an hourly resolution scheduling horizon of five years to account for hourly, seasonal, and interannual... [more]
14. LAPSE:2026.0221
Techno-Economic Assessment and Optimisation of Self-Sufficient Biomethane Systems for Regional Decarbonisation
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Alternative Fuels, Biofuels, Modelling and Simulations, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Technoeconomic Analysis
Existing gas network infrastructure are important national energy assets, transporting mostly fossil-derived natural gas to end-users. Biomethane, methane derived from anaerobic digestion (AD) of organic matter, presents a potential route to replace fossil fuels with home-grown renewable gas. Combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) of the CO2 in the biogas potentially results in carbon negative energy. This work seeks to understand the feasibility of operating a part of the gas network isolated from the main natural gas network fully on biomethane in Scotland. We present an integrated techno-economic optimisation framework for designing self-sufficient biomethane islands, applied to the Inverness network. The model, implemented as a nonlinear program (NLP), maximises annual net profit from biomethane sales and Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) tariffs subject to practical constraints such as GGSS-compliance of =50 % waste-derived biomethane, seasonal supply, land/scale, demand bal... [more]
15. LAPSE:2026.0211
Integrated solvent and process design with technoeconomic and lifecycle assessment for solvent-based recycling of end-of-life vehicle plastics
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Lifecycle Assessment, Process optimization, SAFT-? Mie, Solvent design, Solvent-based plastic recycling, Technoeconomic analysis
The accumulation of automotive plastic waste poses a growing environmental threat; while recycling has the potential to address this, its use remains limited by the complexity of the materials used in vehicle components. Specifically, the presence of mixtures of polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE), and polyoxymethylene (POM) in the materials makes mechanical recycling challenging due to the difficulty of separation. To address the inefficiency of current end-of-life management, we present a systematic computational framework integrating computer-aided molecular and process design (CAMPD) with technoeconomic assessment (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) to design a solvent-based recycling process capable of producing near-virgin quality resins. This framework involves utilizing the SAFT-?? Mie equation of state to predict thermodynamic properties and employing nonlinear programming (NLP) to perform process optimization. From an evaluation of 875 solvent candidates, we identify 72 fea... [more]
16. LAPSE:2026.0210
Techno-economic feasibility of gallium recovery from semiconductor wastewater
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: circular economy, critical raw material, GaAs semiconductor wastewater, Gallium recovery, ion exchange, solvent extraction, techno-economic analysis
Gallium is a critical material with increasing demand driven by compound semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) and gallium arsenide (GaAs) used in power electronics and optoelectronics and a highly concentrated supply chain, with 98 % of refined production occurring in China. While recycling remains limited, GaAs semiconductor manufacturing generates wastewater that can contain gallium concentrations ranging from 1-35 mg·L?¹, representing an underutilized secondary resource. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of recovering gallium from GaAs semiconductor wastewater across an input range of 10-100 m³·d?¹ using process modelling and a techno-economic analysis comparing two alternative separation routes: ion exchange (IX) and solvent extraction (SX). Using a real-world industrial wastewater composition, IX achieves a higher overall recovery than single-stage SX (80.40 % vs. 62.54 %), which translates into consistently lower levelized costs of gallium. The r... [more]
17. LAPSE:2026.0209
Integration of carbon dioxide capture in a wine effluent biorefinery through the use of deep eutectic solvents
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: biorefinery, Deep Eutectic Solvents, techno-economic analysis, wine effluents
The wine industry generates large volumes of organic effluents, whose inadequate management poses significant environmental challenges but also offers opportunities for resource recovery. In this work, an integrated biorefinery scheme for the valorization of winery effluents is proposed and evaluated through steady-state simulation in Aspen Plus®. The biorefinery converts winery wastewater into a portfolio of value-added chemicals and biofuels, including levulinic acid, propylene glycol, formic acid, light gases, naphtha, sustainable aviation fuel, green diesel, and bioethanol, while enabling water recovery and carbon dioxide management. Two alternative CO2 capture routes are analyzed and compared: a conventional CaO-based carbonation-calcination process and an innovative absorption system using deep eutectic solvents (DES), specifically choline chloride-urea. Technical performance is assessed through chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal, recovery, conversion, yield, and product mass r... [more]
18. LAPSE:2026.0203
Process-Informed Design of Electrochemical Cells for Urea Production: A Techno-Economic and Systems Engineering Approach
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Sequestration, Life Cycle Analysis, Multiscale Modelling, Process Design, Technoeconomic Analysis, urea electrosynthesis
Conventional urea production is a centralized and fossilintensive process associated with significant greenhousegas (GHG) emissions and limited flexibility for deep decarbonization. As an alternative, the Integrated COnversion of NItrate and Carbonate steams (ICONIC) project is developing innovative electrochemical urea (eurea), via the co-electroreduction of nitrogen and carbon sources using renewable power. While recent research advances in electrocatalysis have demonstrated promising Faradaic efficiencies (FE) toward urea, the design of electrochemical systems involves inherent tradeoffs between key performance indicators (KPIs) such as current density, cell voltage, and FE. Crucially, the implications of electrolyzerlevel performance on plantlevel economics and environmental impacts remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we integrate process modelling with technoeconomic and lifecycle assessment (TEA-LCA) to evaluate the trade-offs of KPIs from a process systems per... [more]
19. LAPSE:2026.0202
Development of a Novel Microwave-assisted Process that Converts Mixed Plastic Waste to Olefins and Aromatics
June 12, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Microwave-assisted Heating, Plastic Waste Pyrolysis, Process Design, Technoeconomic Analysis
Plastic waste represents an abundant and underutilized resource that can be converted into valuable products through microwave-assisted pyrolysis. In this research, a novel microwave-assisted processing plant that converts mixed plastic waste to olefins and aromatics is developed and simulated on Aspen Plus (v.14) guided by laboratory-scale experimental data. The experimental results show that at a bulk temperature of 400°C and ambient pressure, approximately 95% of a solid waste plastic feed comprised of equal portions of polypropylene and polyethylene is converted to gases, with nearly two-thirds of the resulting effluent gas composed of olefins. Simulation results show that 2889.1 kg/h propylene, 2088.0 kg/h ethylene and 96.3 kg/h aromatics (benzene and toluene) are produced as main products from 8000 kg/h of mixed plastic feed. High-purity propane and ethane streams were also recovered and sold as byproducts. A technoeconomic analysis is subsequently conducted, revealing that the p... [more]
20. LAPSE:2026.0029
Supplementary material for: Integrated molecular and process design with technoeconomic and lifecycle assessment for solvent-based recycling of end-of-life vehicle plastics
February 2, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: Lifecycle Assessment, Process optimization, SAFT-γ Mie, Solvent design, Solvent-based plastic recycling, Technoeconomic Analysis
This document contains digital supplementary material for the article “Integrated molecular and process design with technoeconomic and lifecycle assessment for solvent-based recycling of end-of-life vehicle plastics,” submitted to the peer-reviewed proceedings of the 36th European Symposium on Computer-Aided Process Engineering (ESCAPE 2026).
21. LAPSE:2026.0027
Supplementary material for "Techno-Economic Assessment of Decarbonization Pathways for Methanol and Formaldehyde Production: A Superstructure Optimization Approach"
February 2, 2026 (v1)
Subject: Uncategorized
Supplementary material for "Techno-Economic Assessment of Decarbonization Pathways for Methanol and Formaldehyde Production: A Superstructure Optimization Approach" (ESCAPE36, Sheffield, June 2026)
22. LAPSE:2025.0216
Short-Cut Correlations for CO2 Capture Technologies in Small-Scale Applications
October 13, 2025 (v2)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Carbon Capture, Short-cut correlations, Small-scale capture, Technoeconomic Analysis
The escalating urgency to address climate change has driven carbon capture (CC) technologies into the spotlight, particularly for large-scale emitters, which benefit from economies of scale. However, small-scale emitters account for a significant share of CO2 emissions, yet such applications remain largely overlooked in the literature. While CC cost is often used as a key performance indicator (KPI) for CC technologies, the lack of standardized cost estimation methods leads to inconsistencies, complicating comparisons, and hindering the deployment of CC systems. This study addresses these challenges by developing flexible short-cut correlations for selected CC technologies, providing estimates of the total equipment cost (TEC) and energy consumption specific to small-scale applications across various CO2 inlet concentrations (mol%) and capture scales (10 100 kt/y). The flexibility of the correlations enables the integration of various cost estimation methods available in the literatu... [more]
23. LAPSE:2025.0603
Production of Olefins from Carbon Dioxide and Renewable Energy
September 11, 2025 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, Electrolysis, Methanol, Olefins, Process Design, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Technoeconomic Analysis
Nowadays, it is crucial to change daily habits to live in a more sustainable world. From an industrial point of view, the capture of CO2 is becoming more and more important in the chemical industry to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and its reuse can be an alternative to fossil resources. Another major challenge for future engineers is the significant increase in the use of renewable energy sources. In this perspective, a process allowing the synthesis of three different olefins from CO2 captured in industrial flue gases and using only wind energy is established. This process is separated into three major sections: water electrolysis, carbon dioxide reduction to produce methanol and methanol-to-olefins synthesis. The targeted production capacity is of 450 000 tonnes per year of olefins, which are considered to be ethylene, propylene and butylene. This process, which involves a complete flowsheet modelling is implemented with the Aspen Plus software. A heat integration is performed to i... [more]
24. LAPSE:2025.0564
Robust Techno-economic Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment, and Quality and Sustainability by Digital Design of Three Alternative Continuous Pharmaceutical Tablet Manufacturing Processes
June 27, 2025 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: gProms, Life Cycle Assessment, Modelling and Simulations, Pharmaceutical tableting, Quality and and Sustainability by Digital Design QSbDD, Technoeconomic Analysis
This study presents a comprehensive comparison of the three alternative downstream manufacturing technologies for pharmaceuticals: i) Dry Granulation (DG) through roller compaction, ii) Direct Compaction (DC), and iii) Wet Granulation (WG) based on the economic, environmental and product quality performances. Firstly, the integrated dynamic mathematical models of the different downstream (drug product) processes were developed using gPROMS formulated products based on data from the literature or/and our recent experimental work. The process models were developed and simulated to reliably capture the impact of the different design options, process parameters, and material attributes. Uncertainty analysis was conducted using global sensitivity analysis to identify the set of critical process parameters (CPP) and critical material attributes (CMA) that mostly influence the quality and performance of the final pharmaceutical tablets in each case, captured by the critical quality attribute... [more]
25. LAPSE:2025.0557
Integrating process and demand uncertainty in capacity planning for next-generation pharmaceutical supply chains
June 27, 2025 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: Advanced Pharmaceutical Manufacturing, Planning & Scheduling, Stochastic Optimization, Supply Chain, Technoeconomic Analysis
Emerging sectors within the biopharmaceutical industry are undergoing rapid scale-up due to the market boom of gene therapies and vaccine platform technologies. Manufacturers are pressured to orchestrate resources and plan investments under future demand uncertainty and, critically, an early-stage process uncertainty for platforms still under development. In this work, a multi-product multi-stage stochastic optimization problem integrating demand uncertainty is presented and augmented with a worst-case optimization approach with respect to process uncertainty. Results focus on a comparison between fixed equipment facilities and modular technologies, highlighting an inherent flexibility of the latter option due to shorter recourse actions for capacity scale-out. The impact of process uncertainty integration is quantified. With more conservative decisions taken in first-stages of the time horizon, expected costs result lower for modular single-use equipment. This suggests that capacity a... [more]
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