The ability to forecast electricity generation for a small wind turbine is important both on a larger scale where there are many such turbines (because it creates problems for networks managed by distribution system operators) and for prosumers to allow current energy consumption planning. It is also important for owners of small energy systems in order to optimize the use of various energy sources and facilitate energy storage. The research presented here addresses an original, rarely predicted 48 h forecasting horizon for small wind turbines. This topic has been rather underrepresented in research, especially in comparison with forecasts for large wind farms. Wind speed forecasts with a 48 h horizon are also rarely used as input data. We have analyzed the available data to identify potentially useful explanatory variables for forecasting models. Eight sets with increasing data amounts were created to analyze the influence of the types and amounts of data on forecast quality. Hybrid,... [more]

Proper management of solar energy as an effective renewable source is of high importance toward sustainable energy harvesting. This paper offers a novel sophisticated method for predicting solar irradiance (SIr) from environmental conditions. To this end, an efficient metaheuristic technique, namely electromagnetic field optimization (EFO), is employed for optimizing a neural network. This algorithm quickly mines a publicly available dataset for nonlinearly tuning the network parameters. To suggest an optimal configuration, five influential parameters of the EFO are optimized by an extensive trial and error practice. Analyzing the results showed that the proposed model can learn the SIr pattern and predict it for unseen conditions with high accuracy. Furthermore, it provided about 10% and 16% higher accuracy compared to two benchmark optimizers, namely shuffled complex evolution and shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Hence, the EFO-supervised neural network can be a promising tool for th... [more]

A vehicle ad hoc network (VANET) is a solution for road safety, congestion management, and infotainment services. Integration of cognitive radio (CR), known as CR-VANET, is needed to solve the spectrum scarcity problems of VANET. Several research efforts have addressed the concerns of CR-VANET. However, more reliable, robust, and faster spectrum sensing is still a challenge. A novel segment-based CR-VANET (Seg-CR-VANET) architecture is therefore proposed in this paper. Roads are divided equally into segments, and they are sub-segmented based on the probability value. Individual vehicles or secondary users produce local sensing results by choosing an optimal spectrum sensing (SS) technique using a hybrid machine learning algorithm that includes fuzzy and naïve Bayes algorithms. We used dynamic threshold values for the sensing techniques. In this proposed cooperative SS, the segment spectrum agent (SSA) made the global decision using the tri-agent reinforcement learning (TA-RL) algorithm... [more]

Owing to the ever-growing impetus towards the development of eco-friendly and low carbon footprint energy solutions, biodiesel production and usage have been the subject of tremendous research efforts. The biodiesel production process is driven by several process parameters, which must be maintained at optimum levels to ensure high productivity. Since biodiesel productivity and quality are also dependent on the various raw materials involved in transesterification, physical experiments are necessary to make any estimation regarding them. However, a brute force approach of carrying out physical experiments until the optimal process parameters have been achieved will not succeed, due to a large number of process parameters and the underlying non-linear relation between the process parameters and responses. In this regard, a machine learning-based prediction approach is used in this paper to quantify the response features of the biodiesel production process as a function of the process pa... [more]

A main challenge for integrating the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation remains the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts and the establishment of robust performing methods. The purpose of this work is to address these technological challenges by evaluating the day-ahead PV production forecasting performance of different machine learning models under different supervised learning regimes and minimal input features. Specifically, the day-ahead forecasting capability of Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR), and regression tree (RT) models was investigated by employing the same dataset for training and performance verification, thus enabling a valid comparison. The training regime analysis demonstrated that the performance of the investigated models was strongly dependent on the timeframe of the train set, training data sequence, and application of irradiance condition filters. Furthermore, accurate results were obtained utilizing only the measured power o... [more]

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low comput... [more]

Estimation of fluid saturation is an important step in dynamic reservoir characterization. Machine learning techniques have been increasingly used in recent years for reservoir saturation prediction workflows. However, most of these studies require input parameters derived from cores, petrophysical logs, or seismic data, which may not always be readily available. Additionally, very few studies incorporate the production data, which is an important reflection of the dynamic reservoir properties and also typically the most frequently and reliably measured quantity throughout the life of a field. In this research, the random forest ensemble machine learning algorithm is implemented that uses the field-wide production and injection data (both measured at the surface) as the only input parameters to predict the time-lapse oil saturation profiles at well locations. The algorithm is optimized using feature selection based on feature importance score and Pearson correlation coefficient, in com... [more]

The behaviours of individual flow structures have become a relevant matter of study in turbulent flows as the computational power to allow their study feasible has become available. Especially, high instantaneous Reynolds Stress events have been found to dominate the behaviour of the logarithmic layer. In this work, we present a viability study where two machine learning solutions are proposed to reduce the computational cost of tracking such structures in large domains. The first one is a Multi-Layer Perceptron. The second one uses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Both of the methods are developed with the objective of taking the the structures’ geometrical features as inputs from which to predict the structures’ geometrical features in future time steps. Some of the tested Multi-Layer Perceptron architectures proved to perform better and achieve higher accuracy than the LSTM architectures tested, providing lower errors on the predictions and achieving higher accuracy in relating the st... [more]

Many electric utilities currently have a low level of smart meter implementation on traditional distribution grids. These utilities commonly have a problem associated with non-technical energy losses (NTLs) to unidentified energy flows consumed, but not billed in power distribution grids. They are usually due to either the electricity theft carried out by their own customers or failures in the utilities’ energy measurement systems. Non-technical energy losses lead to significant economic losses for electric utilities around the world. For instance, in Latin America and the Caribbean countries, NTLs represent around 15% of total energy generated in 2018, varying between 5 and 30% depending on the country because of the strong correlation with social, economic, political, and technical variables. According to this, electric utilities have a strong interest in finding new techniques and methods to mitigate this problem as much as possible. This research presents the results of determining... [more]

Dead oil viscosity is a critical parameter to solve numerous reservoir engineering problems and one of the most unreliable properties to predict with classical black oil correlations. Determination of dead oil viscosity by experiments is expensive and time-consuming, which means developing an accurate and quick prediction model is required. This paper implements six machine learning models: random forest (RF), lightgbm, XGBoost, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, stochastic real-valued (SRV) and SuperLearner to predict dead oil viscosity. More than 2000 pressure−volume−temperature (PVT) data were used for developing and testing these models. A huge range of viscosity data were used, from light intermediate to heavy oil. In this study, we give insight into the performance of different functional forms that have been used in the literature to formulate dead oil viscosity. The results show that the functional form f(γAPI,T), has the best performance, and additional correlating pa... [more]

Smart-meter technology advancements have resulted in the generation of massive volumes of information introducing new opportunities for energy services and data-driven business models. One such service is non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM). NILM is a process to break down the electricity consumption on an appliance level by analyzing the total aggregated data measurements monitored from a single point. Most prominent existing solutions use deep learning techniques resulting in models with millions of parameters and a high computational burden. Some of these solutions use the turn-on transient response of the target appliance to calculate its energy consumption, while others require the total operation cycle. In the latter case, disaggregation is performed either with delay (in the order of minutes) or only for past events. In this paper, a real-time NILM system is proposed. The scope of the proposed NILM algorithm is to detect the turning-on of a target appliance by processing the me... [more]

Modern energy automation solutions and demand response applications rely on load profiles to monitor and manage electricity consumption effectively. The introduction of smart control systems capable of handling additional fuzzy parameters, such as weather data, through machine learning methods, offers valuable insights in an attempt to adjust consumer behavior optimally. Following recent advances in the field of fuzzy control, this study presents the design and implementation of a fuzzy control system that processes environmental data in order to recommend minimum energy consumption values for a residential building. This system follows the forward chaining Mamdani approach and uses decision tree linearization for rule generation. Additionally, a hybrid feature selector is implemented based on XGBoost and decision tree metrics for feature importance. The proposed structure discovers and generates a small set of fuzzy rules that highlights the energy consumption behavior of the building... [more]

Lithium-ion batteries power numerous systems from consumer electronics to electric vehicles, and thus undergo qualification testing for degradation assessment prior to deployment. Qualification testing involves repeated charge−discharge operation of the batteries, which can take more than three months if subjected to 500 cycles at a C-rate of 0.5C. Accelerated degradation testing can be used to reduce extensive test time, but its application requires a careful selection of stress factors. To address this challenge, this study identifies and ranks stress factors in terms of their effects on battery degradation (capacity fade) using half-fractional design of experiments and machine learning. Two case studies are presented involving 96 lithium-ion batteries from two different manufacturers, tested under five different stress factors. Results show that neither the individual (main) effects nor the two-way interaction effects of charge C-rate and depth of discharge rank in the top three sig... [more]

In recent years, machine learning applications have received increasing interest from power system researchers. The successful performance of these applications is dependent on the availability of extensive and diverse datasets for the training and validation of machine learning frameworks. However, power systems operate at quasi-steady-state conditions for most of the time, and the measurements corresponding to these states provide limited novel knowledge for the development of machine learning applications. In this paper, a data mining approach based on optimization techniques is proposed for filtering root-mean-square (RMS) voltage profiles and identifying unusual measurements within triggerless power quality datasets. Then, datasets with equal representation between event and non-event observations are created so that machine learning algorithms can extract useful insights from the rare but important event observations. The proposed framework is demonstrated and validated with both... [more]

Frequency control is essential to ensure reliability and quality of power systems. North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) Control Performance Standard 1 (CPS1) is widely adopted by many operating authorities to examine the quality of the frequency control. The operating authority would have a strong interest in knowing how the frequency-sensitive features affect the CPS1 score and finding out more effective unit-dispatch schedules for reaching the CPS1 goal. As frequency-sensitive features usually possess multi-variable and high-correlated characteristics, this paper employed an ensemble learning technique (the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree algorithm, GBDT) to construct Frequency Response Model (FRM) of the Taipower system in Taiwan to evaluate by CPS1 score. The proposed CPS1 model was then integrated with Unit Commitment (UC) program to determine the unit-dispatch that achieves the targeted CPS1 score. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed CPS1-UC plat... [more]

Nowadays we can observe a growing demand for installations of new gas pipelines in Europe. A large number of them are installed using trenchless Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) technology. The aim of this work was to develop and compare new machine learning models dedicated for risk assessment in HDD projects. The data from 133 HDD projects from eight countries of the world were gathered, profiled, and preprocessed. Three machine learning models, logistic regression, random forests, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), were developed to predict the overall HDD project outcome (failure free installation or installation likely to fail), and the occurrence of identified unwanted events. The best performance in terms of recall and accuracy was achieved for the developed ANN model, which proved to be efficient, fast and robust in predicting risks in HDD projects. Machine learning applications in the proposed models enabled eliminating the involvement of a group of experts in the risk... [more]

Fault detection in microgrids presents a strong technical challenge due to the dynamic operating conditions. Changing the power generation and load impacts the current magnitude and direction, which has an adverse effect on the microgrid protection scheme. To address this problem, this paper addresses a field-transform-based fault detection method immune to the microgrid conditions. The faults are simulated via a Matlab/Simulink model of the grid-connected photovoltaics-based DC microgrid with battery energy storage. Short-time Fourier transform is applied to the fault time signal to obtain a frequency spectrum. Selected spectrum features are then provided to a number of intelligent classifiers. The classifiers’ scores were evaluated using the F1-score metric. Most classifiers proved to be reliable as their performance score was above 90%.

The study objective was to model and predict the bioethanol production process from lignocellulosic biomass based on an example of empirical study results. Two types of algorithms were used in machine learning: artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest algorithm (RF). Data for the model included results of studying bioethanol production with the use of ionic liquids (ILs) and different enzymatic preparations from the following biomass types: buckwheat straw and biomass from four wastelands, including a mixture of various plants: stems of giant miscanthus, common nettle, goldenrod, common broom, fireweed, and hay (a mix of grasses). The input variables consisted of different ionic liquids (imidazolium and ammonium), enzymatic preparations, enzyme doses, time and temperature of pretreatment, and type of yeast for alcoholic fermentation. The output value was the bioethanol concentration. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) was used in the artificial neural networks. Two model types we... [more]

This paper introduces an off-grid DoA estimation via two-stage cascaded network which can resolve a mismatch between true direction-of-arrival (DoA) and discrete angular grid. In the first-stage network, the initial DoAs are estimated with a convolutional neural network (CNN), where initial DoAs are mapped on the discrete angular grid. To deal with the mismatch between initially estimated DoAs and true DoAs, the second-stage network estimates a tuning vector which represents the difference between true DoAs and nearest discrete angles. By using tuning vector, the final DoAs are estimated by moving initially estimated DoAs as much as the difference between true DoAs and nearest discrete angles. The limitation on estimation accuracy induced by the discrete angular grid can be resolved with the proposed two-stage network so that the estimation accuracy can be further enhanced. Simulation results show that adding the second-stage network after the first-stage network helps improve the esti... [more]

Energy savings based upon use of smart WiFi thermostats ranging from 10 to 15% have been documented, as new features such as geofencing have been added. Here, a new benefit of smart WiFi thermostats is identified and investigated; namely, as a tool to improve the estimation accuracy of residential energy consumption and, as a result, estimation of energy savings from energy system upgrades, when only monthly energy consumption is metered. This is made possible from the higher sampling frequency of smart WiFi thermostats. In this study, collected smart WiFi data are combined with outdoor temperature data and known residential geometrical and energy characteristics. Most importantly, unique power spectra are developed for over 100 individual residences from the measured thermostat indoor temperature in each and used as a predictor in the training of a singular machine learning models to predict consumption in any residence. The best model yielded a percentage mean absolute error (MAE) fo... [more]

Hydroelectric power plants’ operational decisions are associated with several factors, such as generation planning, water availability and dam safety. One major challenge is to control the water spillage from the reservoir. Although this action represents a loss of energy production, it is a powerful strategy to regulate the reservoir level, ensuring the dam’s safety. The decision to use this strategy must be made in advance based on level and demand predictions. The present work applies supervised machine learning techniques to predict the operating condition of spillage in a hydroelectric plant for 5 h ahead. The use of this method, in real time, aims to assist the operator so that he can make more assertive and safer decisions, avoiding waste of energy resources and increasing the safety of dams. The Random Forest and Multilayer Perceptron methods were used to define the architecture compared to the forecasting capacity. The proposed methodology was applied to a 902.5 MW Hydroelectr... [more]

A probabilistic machine learning method is applied to icing related production loss forecasts for wind energy in cold climates. The employed method, called quantile regression forests, is based on the random forest regression algorithm. Based on the performed tests on data from four Swedish wind parks available for two winter seasons, it has been shown to produce valuable probabilistic forecasts. Even with the limited amount of training and test data that were used in the study, the estimated forecast uncertainty adds more value to the forecast when compared to a deterministic forecast and a previously published probabilistic forecast method. It is also shown that the output from a physical icing model provides useful information to the machine learning method, as its usage results in an increased forecast skill when compared to only using Numerical Weather Prediction data. A potential additional benefit in machine learning for some stations was also found when using information in the... [more]

We compare the forecasting performance of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) -type models with support vector regression (SVR) for futures contracts of selected energy commodities: Crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoil and gasoline. The GARCH models are commonly used in volatility analysis, while SVR is one of machine learning methods, which have gained attention and interest in recent years. We show that the accuracy of volatility forecasts depends substantially on the applied proxy of volatility. Our study confirms that SVR with properly determined hyperparameters can lead to lower forecasting errors than the GARCH models when the squared daily return is used as the proxy of volatility in an evaluation. Meanwhile, if we apply the Parkinson estimator which is a more accurate approximation of volatility, the results usually favor the GARCH models. Moreover, it is difficult to choose the best model among the GARCH models for all analyzed commodit... [more]

Innovative heating networks with a hybrid generation park can make an important contribution to the energy turnaround. By integrating heat from several heat generators and a high proportion of different renewable energies, they also have a high degree of flexibility. Optimizing the operation of such systems is a complex task due to the diversity of producers, the use of storage systems with stratified charging and continuous changes in system properties. Besides, it is necessary to consider conflicting economic and ecological targets. Operational optimization of district heating systems using nonlinear models is underrepresented in practice and science. Considering ecological and economic targets, the current work focuses on developing a procedure for an operational optimization, which ensures a continuous optimal operation of the heat and power generators of a local heating network. The approach presented uses machine learning methods, including Gaussian process regressions for a repe... [more]

A key aspect for achieving a high-accuracy Photovoltaic (PV) power simulation, and reliable digital twins, is a detailed description of the PV system itself. However, such information is not always accurate, complete, or even available. This work presents a novel approach to learn features of unknown PV systems or subsystems using genetic algorithm optimization. Based on measured PV power, this approach learns and optimizes seven PV system parameters: nominal power, tilt and azimuth angles, albedo, irradiance and temperature dependency, and the ratio of nominal module to nominal inverter power (DC/AC ratio). By optimizing these parameters, we create a digital twin that accurately reflects the actual properties and behaviors of the unknown PV systems or subsystems. To develop this approach, on-site measured power, ambient temperature, and satellite-derived irradiance of a PV system located in south-west Germany are used. The approach proposed here achieves a mean bias error of about 10%... [more]