Modern power engineering is struggling with various problems that have not been observed before or have occurred very rarely. The main cause of these problems results from the increasing number of connected distributed electricity sources, mainly renewable energy sources (RESs). Therefore, energy generation is becoming more and more diverse, both in terms of technology and location. Grids that have so far worked as receiving networks change their original function and become generation networks. The directions of power flow have changed. In the case of distribution networks, this is manifested by power flows towards transformer stations and further to the network with a higher voltage level. As a result of a large number of RESs, their total share in the total generation increases. This has a significant impact on various aspects of the operation of the power system. Voltage profiles, branch loads, power flows and directions of power flows between areas change. As a result of the rando... [more]

One method to reduce CO2 emissions from vehicle exhaust is the use of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) fuel. The global use of this fuel is high in European countries such as Poland, Romania, and Italy. There are a small number of computational models for the purpose of estimating the emissions of LPG vehicles. This work is one of the first to present a methodology for developing microscale CO2 emission models for LPG vehicles. The developed model is based on data from road tests using the portable emission measurement system (PEMS) and on-board diagnostic (OBDII) interface. This model was created from a previous exploratory data analysis while using gradient-boosting machine learning methods. Vehicle velocity and engine RPM were chosen as the explanatory variables for CO2 prediction. The validation of the model indicates its good precision, while its use is possible for the analysis of continuous CO2 emissions and the creation of emission maps for environmental analyses in urban areas. T... [more]

The maintenance paradigm has evolved over the last few years and companies that want to remain competitive in the market need to provide condition-based maintenance (CBM). The diagnosis and prognosis of the health status of equipment, predictive maintenance (PdM), are fundamental strategies to perform informed maintenance, increasing the company’s profit. This article aims to present a diagnosis and prognosis methodology using a hidden Markov model (HMM) classifier to recognise the equipment status in real time and a deep neural network (DNN), specifically a gated recurrent unit (GRU), to determine this same status in a future of one week. The data collected by the sensors go through several phases, starting by cleaning them. After that, temporal windows are created in order to generate statistical features of the time domain to better understand the equipment’s behaviour. These features go through a normalisation to produce inputs for a feature extraction process, via a principal comp... [more]

The development of data-driven building energy consumption prediction models has gained more attention in research due to its relevance for energy planning and conservation. However, many studies have conducted the inappropriate application of data-driven tools for energy consumption prediction in the wrong conditions. For example, employing a data-driven tool to develop a model using a small sample size, despite the recognition of the tool for producing good results in large data conditions. This study delivers a review of 63 studies with a precise focus on evaluating the performance of data-driven tools based on certain conditions; i.e., data properties, the type of energy considered, and the type of building explored. This review identifies gaps in research and proposes future directions in the field of data-driven building energy consumption prediction. Based on the studies reviewed, the outcome of the evaluation of the data-driven tools performance shows that Support Vector Machin... [more]

Assets deteriorate over time, as well as being covered, corroded, or becoming old in less obvious ways. Maintenance can extend the remaining useful life (RUL) of an asset system, but sooner or later it must surely be replaced. In this study, we propose a new RUL estimation methodology to assist in decision making for the maintenance and replacement of assets from prioritizing equipment in a renovation plan. Our methodology uses advanced data analysis techniques that consider multiple competing criteria with the goal of maximizing values of the asset throughout its life cycle, while considering the rules of remuneration and service quality of the current regulation, as well as the values at risk according to the decisions and actions taken. Experimental results with real datasets show the efficiency of the proposed approach. Finally, this work also presents the development of an analytical tool to optimize asset renewal decisions applying the RUL estimation methodology proposed and its... [more]

Lithium-ion batteries have found applications in many parts of our daily lives. Predicting their remaining useful life (RUL) is thus essential for management and prognostics. Most approaches look at early life prediction of RUL in the context of designing charging profiles or optimising cell design. While critical, said approaches are not directly applicable to the regular testing of cells used in applications. This article focuses on a class of models called ‘one-cycle’ models which are suitable for this task and characterized by versatility (in terms of online prediction frameworks and model combinations), prediction from limited input, and cells’ history independence. Our contribution is fourfold. First, we show the wider deployability of the so-called one-cycle model for a different type of battery data, thus confirming its wider scope of use. Second, reflecting on how prediction models can be leveraged within battery management cloud solutions, we propose a universal Exponential-s... [more]

Waterflooding is one of the methods used for increased hydrocarbon production. Waterflooding optimization can be computationally prohibitive if the reservoir model or the optimization problem is complex. Hence, proxy modeling can yield a faster solution than numerical reservoir simulation. This fast solution provides insights to better formulate field development plans. Due to technological advancements, machine learning increasingly contributes to the designing and building of proxy models. Thus, in this work, we have proposed the application of the two-stage proxy modeling, namely global and local components, to generate useful insights. We have established global proxy models and coupled them with optimization algorithms to produce a new database. In this paper, the machine learning technique used is a multilayer perceptron. The optimization algorithms comprise the Genetic Algorithm and the Particle Swarm Optimization. We then implemented the newly generated database to build local... [more]

Critical heat flux (CHF) is an essential parameter that plays a significant role in ensuring the safety and economic efficiency of nuclear power facilities. It imposes design and operational restrictions on nuclear power plants due to safety concerns. Therefore, accurate prediction of CHF using a hybrid framework can assist researchers in optimizing system performance, mitigating risk of equipment failure, and enhancing safety measures. Despite the existence of numerous prediction methods, there remains a lack of agreement regarding the underlying mechanism that gives rise to CHF. Hence, developing a precise and reliable CHF model is a crucial and challenging task. In this study, we proposed a hybrid model based on an artificial neural network (ANN) to improve the prediction accuracy of CHF. Our model leverages the available knowledge from a lookup table (LUT) and then employs ANN to further reduce the gap between actual and predicted outcomes. To develop and assess the accuracy of our... [more]

Geothermal energy is considered an essential renewable resource to generate flexible electricity. Geothermal resource assessments conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey showed that the southwestern basins in the U.S. have a significant geothermal potential for meeting domestic electricity demand. Within these southwestern basins, play fairway analysis (PFA), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office, identified that the Tularosa Basin in New Mexico has significant geothermal potential. This short communication paper presents a machine learning (ML) methodology for curating and analyzing the PFA data from the DOE’s geothermal data repository. The proposed approach to identify potential geothermal sites in the Tularosa Basin is based on an unsupervised ML method called non-negative matrix factorization with custom k-means clustering. This methodology is available in our open-source ML framework, GeoThermalCloud (GTC). Using this GTC framework, we dis... [more]

The corrosion rate is an important indicator describing the degree of metal corrosion, and quantitative analysis of the corrosion rate is of great significance. In the present work, the support vector machine (SVM) and the artificial neural network (ANN) integrating the k-fold split method and the root-mean-square prop (RMSProp) optimizer are used to evaluate the corrosion rates of alloys, i.e., copper H65, aluminum 3003, and 20# steel, applied to the heating tower heat pump (HTHP) in various anti-freezing solutions at different corrosion times, flow velocities, and temperatures. The mean-square error (MSE) versus the epoch of the ANN model shows that the result breaks the local minimum and is at or close to the global minimum. Comparisons of the SVM-/ANN-evaluated corrosion rates and the measured ones show good agreements, demonstrating the good reliability of the obtained SVM and ANN models. Moreover, the ANN model is recommended since it performs better than the SVM model according... [more]

Fault detection and diagnosis (FDD) systems enable high cost savings and energy savings that could have economic and environmental impact. This study aims to develop and validate a data-driven FDD system for a chiller. The system uses historical operation data to capture quantitative correlations among system variables. This study evaluated the effectiveness and robustness of eight FDD classification methods based on the experimental data of the chiller (the ASHRAE 1043-RP project). The training data used for the FDD system is classified into four cases. Moreover, true and false positive rates are used to characterize the performance of the classification methods. The results show that local fault is not significantly sensitive to training data, and shows high classification accuracy for all cases. The system fault has a significant effect on the amount of data and the severity levels on the classification accuracy.

Defining distinctive areas of the physical properties of rocks plays an important role in reservoir evaluation and hydrocarbon production as core data are challenging to obtain from all wells. In this work, we study the evaluation of lithofacies values using the machine learning algorithms in the determination of classification from various well log data of Kazakhstan and Norway. We also use the wavelet-transformed data in machine learning algorithms to identify geological properties from the well log data. Numerical results are presented for the multiple oil and gas reservoir data which contain more than 90 released wells from Norway and 10 wells from the Kazakhstan field. We have compared the the machine learning algorithms including KNN, Decision Tree, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM. The evaluation of the model score is conducted by using metrics such as accuracy, Hamming loss, and penalty matrix. In addition, the influence of the dataset features on the prediction is investig... [more]

Machine learning is widely used as a panacea in many engineering applications including the condition assessment of power transformers. Most statistics attribute the main cause of transformer failure to insulation degradation. Thus, a new, simple, and effective machine-learning approach was proposed to monitor the condition of transformer oils based on some aging indicators. The proposed approach was used to compare the performance of two machine-learning classifiers: J48 decision tree and random forest. The service-aged transformer oils were classified into four groups: the oils that can be maintained in service, the oils that should be reconditioned or filtered, the oils that should be reclaimed, and the oils that must be discarded. From the two algorithms, random forest exhibited a better performance and high accuracy with only a small amount of data. Good performance was achieved through not only the application of the proposed algorithm but also the approach of data preprocessing.... [more]

The usage of smart grids is growing steadily around the world. This technology has been proposed as a promising solution to enhance energy efficiency and improve consumption management in buildings. Such benefits are usually associated with the ability of accurately forecasting energy demand. However, the energy consumption series forecasting is a challenge for statistical linear and Machine Learning (ML) techniques due to temporal fluctuations and the presence of linear and non-linear patterns. Traditional statistical techniques are able to model linear patterns, while obtaining poor results in forecasting the non-linear component of the time series. ML techniques are data-driven and can model non-linear patterns, but their feature selection process and parameter specification are a complex task. This paper proposes an Evolutionary Hybrid System (EvoHyS) which combines statistical and ML techniques through error series modeling. EvoHyS is composed of three phases: (i) forecast of the... [more]

The objective of this paper is to develop a two-step predict and correct non-intrusive Parametric Model Order Reduction (PMOR) methodology for the problem of changing well locations in an oil field that can eventually be used for well placement optimization to gain significant computational savings. In this work, we propose a two-step PMOR procedure, where, in the first step, a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD)-based strategy that is non-intrusive to the simulator source code is introduced, as opposed to the convention of using POD as a simulator intrusive procedure. The non-intrusiveness of the proposed technique stems from formulating a novel Machine Learning (ML)-based framework used with POD. The features of the ML model (Random Forest was used here) are designed such that they take into consideration the temporal evolution of the state solutions and thereby avoid simulator access for the time dependency of the solutions. The proposed PMOR method is global, since a single reduc... [more]

Wind power is cleaner and less expensive compared to other alternative sources, and it has therefore become one of the most important energy sources worldwide. However, challenges related to the operation and maintenance of wind farms significantly contribute to the increase in their overall costs, and, therefore, it is necessary to monitor the condition of each wind turbine on the farm and identify the different states of alarm. Common alarms are raised based on data acquired by a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system; however, this system generates a large number of false positive alerts, which must be handled to minimize inspection costs and perform preventive maintenance before actual critical or catastrophic failures occur. To this end, a fault detection methodology is proposed in this paper; in the proposed method, different data analysis and data processing techniques are applied to real SCADA data (imbalanced data) for improving the detection of alarms related... [more]

Early prediction of thermal loads plays an essential role in analyzing energy-efficient buildings’ energy performance. On the other hand, stochastic algorithms have recently shown high proficiency in dealing with this issue. These are the reasons that this study is dedicated to evaluating an innovative hybrid method for predicting the cooling load (CL) in buildings with residential usage. The proposed model is a combination of artificial neural networks and stochastic fractal search (SFS−ANNs). Two benchmark algorithms, namely the grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA) and firefly algorithm (FA) are also considered to be compared with the SFS. The non-linear effect of eight independent factors on the CL is analyzed using each model’s optimal structure. Evaluation of the results outlined that all three metaheuristic algorithms (with more than 90% correlation) can adequately optimize the ANN. In this regard, this tool’s prediction error declined by nearly 23%, 18%, and 36% by applying... [more]

Effectively transporting drilled cuttings to the surface is a vital part of the well construction process. Usually, mechanistic models are used to estimate the cuttings concentration during drilling. Based on the results from these model, operational parameters are adjusted to mitigate any nonproductive time events such as pack-off or lost circulation. However, these models do not capture the underlying complex physics completely and frequently require updating the input parameters, which is usually performed manually. To address this, in this study, a data-driven modeling approach is taken and evaluated together with widely used mechanistic models. Artificial neural networks are selected after several trials. The experimental data collected at The University of Tulsa−Drilling Research Projects (in the last 40 years) are used to train and validate the model, which includes a wide range of wellbore and pipe sizes, inclinations, rate-of-penetration values, pipe rotation speeds, flow rate... [more]

A stand-alone machine learned turbulence model is developed and applied for the solution of steady and unsteady boundary layer equations, and issues and constraints associated with the model are investigated. The results demonstrate that an accurately trained machine learned model can provide grid convergent, smooth solutions, work in extrapolation mode, and converge to a correct solution from ill-posed flow conditions. The accuracy of the machine learned response surface depends on the choice of flow variables, and training approach to minimize the overlap in the datasets. For the former, grouping flow variables into a problem relevant parameter for input features is desirable. For the latter, incorporation of physics-based constraints during training is helpful. Data clustering is also identified to be a useful tool as it avoids skewness of the model towards a dominant flow feature.

The traditional way to mitigate loss circulation in drilling operations is to use preventative and curative materials. However, it is difficult to quantify the amount of materials from every possible combination to produce customized rheological properties. In this study, machine learning (ML) is used to develop a framework to identify material composition for loss circulation applications based on the desired rheological characteristics. The relation between the rheological properties and the mud components for polyacrylamide/polyethyleneimine (PAM/PEI)-based mud is assessed experimentally. Four different ML algorithms were implemented to model the rheological data for various mud components at different concentrations and testing conditions. These four algorithms include (a) k-Nearest Neighbor, (b) Random Forest, (c) Gradient Boosting, and (d) AdaBoosting. The Gradient Boosting model showed the highest accuracy (91 and 74% for plastic and apparent viscosity, respectively), which can... [more]

This research aims to bring together thermal modelling and machine learning approaches to improve the understanding on the operation and fault detection of a wind turbine gearbox. Recent fault detection research has focused on machine learning, black box approaches. Although it can be successful, it provides no indication of the physical behaviour. In this paper, thermal network modelling was applied to two datasets using SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) temperature data, with the aim of detecting a fault one month before failure. A machine learning approach was used on the same data to compare the results to thermal modelling. The results found that thermal network modelling could successfully detect a fault in many of the turbines examined and was validated by the machine learning approach for one of the datasets. For that same dataset, it was found that combining the thermal model losses and the machine learning approach by using the modelled losses as a feature in t... [more]

A reliable prediction of sustainable energy consumption is key for designing environmentally friendly buildings. In this study, three novel hybrid intelligent methods, namely the grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), wind-driven optimization (WDO), and biogeography-based optimization (BBO), are employed to optimize the multitarget prediction of heating loads (HLs) and cooling loads (CLs) in the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Concerning the optimization of the applied algorithms, a series of swarm-based iterations are performed, and the best structure is proposed for each model. The GOA, WDO, and BBO algorithms are mixed with a class of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs), which is called a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to predict the HL and CL. According to the sensitivity analysis, the WDO with swarm size = 500 proposes the most-fitted ANN. The proposed WDO-ANN provided an accurate prediction in terms of heating load (training (R2 correlation =... [more]

The article deals with the problem of detecting moisture in the walls of historical buildings. As part of the presented research, the following four methods based on mathematical modeling and machine learning were compared: total variation, least-angle regression, elastic net, and artificial neural networks. Based on the simulation data, the systems for the reconstruction of “pixel by pixel” tomographic images were trained. In order to test the reconstructive algorithms obtained during the research, images were generated based on real measurements and simulation cases. The method comparison was performed on the basis of three indicators: mean square error, relative image error, and image correlation coefficient. The above indicators were applied to four selected variants that corresponded to various parts of the walls. The variants differed in the dimensions of the tested wall sections, the number of electrodes used, and the resolution of the 3D image meshes. In all analyzed variants,... [more]

This paper addresses very short-term (10 s) forecasting of power demand of highly variable loads. The main purpose of this study is to develop methods useful for this type of forecast. We have completed a comprehensive study using two different time series, which are very difficult to access in practice, of 10 s power demand characterized by big dynamics of load changes. This is an emerging and promising forecasting research topic, yet to be more widely recognized in the forecasting research community. This problem is particularly important in microgrids, i.e., small energy micro-systems. Power demand forecasting, like forecasting of renewable power generation, is of key importance, especially in island mode operation of microgrids. This is due to the necessity of ensuring reliable power supplies to consumers. Inaccurate very short-term forecasts can cause improper operation of microgrids or increase costs/decrease profits in the electricity market. This paper presents a detailed stati... [more]

Primary frequency reserves in Northern Europe have traditionally been provided with hydro plants and fossil fuel-burning spinning reserves. Recently, smart distributed energy resources have been equipped with functionality needed to participate on frequency reserves. Key categories of such resources include photovoltaic systems, batteries, and smart loads. Most of these resources are small and cannot provide the minimum controllable power required to participate on frequency reserves. Thus, virtual power plants have been used to aggregate the resources and trade them on the frequency reserves markets. The information technology aspects of virtual power plants are proprietary and many of the details have not been made public. The first contribution of this article is to propose a generic data model and application programming interface for a virtual power plant with the above-mentioned capabilities. The second contribution is to use the application programming interface to cope with the... [more]