LAPSE:2023.29754
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.29754
Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting
Spyros Theocharides, Marios Theristis, George Makrides, Marios Kynigos, Chrysovalantis Spanias, George E. Georghiou
April 13, 2023
A main challenge for integrating the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation remains the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts and the establishment of robust performing methods. The purpose of this work is to address these technological challenges by evaluating the day-ahead PV production forecasting performance of different machine learning models under different supervised learning regimes and minimal input features. Specifically, the day-ahead forecasting capability of Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR), and regression tree (RT) models was investigated by employing the same dataset for training and performance verification, thus enabling a valid comparison. The training regime analysis demonstrated that the performance of the investigated models was strongly dependent on the timeframe of the train set, training data sequence, and application of irradiance condition filters. Furthermore, accurate results were obtained utilizing only the measured power output and other calculated parameters for training. Consequently, useful information is provided for establishing a robust day-ahead forecasting methodology that utilizes calculated input parameters and an optimal supervised learning approach. Finally, the obtained results demonstrated that the optimally constructed BNN outperformed all other machine learning models achieving forecasting accuracies lower than 5%.
Keywords
day-ahead forecasting, Machine Learning, neural networks, photovoltaic, regression tree, support vector regression
Suggested Citation
Theocharides S, Theristis M, Makrides G, Kynigos M, Spanias C, Georghiou GE. Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Power Production Forecasting. (2023). LAPSE:2023.29754
Author Affiliations
Theocharides S: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus [ORCID]
Theristis M: Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA [ORCID]
Makrides G: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus
Kynigos M: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus
Spanias C: Distribution System Operator, Electricity Authority of Cyprus (EAC), Nicosia 1399, Cyprus [ORCID]
Georghiou GE: PV Technology Laboratory, FOSS Research Centre for Sustainable Energy, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Cyprus, Nicosia 1678, Cyprus
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
4
First Page
1081
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-02-18
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14041081, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.29754
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doi:10.3390/en14041081
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Apr 13, 2023
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