Sustainable development and the increasing demand for equitable energy use as well as the reduction of waste of energy are the author’s social and scientific motivations. This new paradigm is the selection of a pertinent methodology to evaluate the efficiency of habitat thermomodernization, which is one of the scientific tasks of the presented study. In order to meet the social and scientific requirements, 380 buildings from the end of the last century (made of large plate technology), which were thermally improved at the beginning of the XXI century, were designed for a comparative analysis of the predictive modelling of heating energy consumption. A specific set of important variables characterizing the examined buildings has been identified. Groups of variables were used to estimate the energy consumption in such a way as to achieve a compromise between the difficulty of obtaining them and the quality of forecast. To predict energy consumption, the six most appropriate neural method... [more]

Recently, a lot of research has been carried out on partial discharge (PD) using machine learning techniques. However, most of these studies have focused on the identification of multiple PD sources, PD classification, or denoising PD measurements, with few studies on real-time PD occurrence detection. In this paper, we propose a method to detect PD occurrence based on anomaly pattern detection. The proposed method consists of three steps. First, in the data preprocessing step, the pulse sequence data are converted into a feature vector stream by applying a sliding window technique. In the next step, normal data modeling is performed using feature vectors transformed from pulse sequence data collected in a normal state where no PD occurs. Finally, for the monitored pulse sequence, an online process for PD detection is carried out through conversion to a feature vector data stream and an anomaly pattern detection method. Experimental results using simulated PD data demonstrate the capab... [more]

The importance of price forecasting has gained attention over the last few years, with the growth of aggregators and the general opening of the European electricity markets. Market participants manage a tradeoff between, bidding in a lower price market (day-ahead), but with typically higher volume, or aiming for a lower volume market but with potentially higher returns (balance energy market). Companies try to forecast the extremes of revenues or prices, in order to manage risk and opportunity, assigning their assets in an optimal way. It is thought that in general, electricity markets have quasi-deterministic principles, rather than being based on speculation, hence the desire to forecast the price based on variables that can describe the outcome of the market. Many studies address this problem from a statistical approach or by performing multiple-variable regressions, but they very often focus only on the time series analysis. In 2019, the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) was made ava... [more]

The accurate determination of methane adsorption isotherms in coals is crucial for both the evaluation of underground coalbed methane (CBM) reserves and design of development strategies for enhancing CBM recovery. However, the experimental measurement of high-pressure methane adsorption isotherms is extremely tedious and time-consuming. This paper proposed the use of an ensemble machine learning (ML) method, namely the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT), in order to accurately estimate methane adsorption isotherms based on coal properties in the Qinshui basin, China. The GBDT method was trained to correlate the adsorption amount with coal properties (ash, fixed carbon, moisture, vitrinite, and vitrinite reflectance) and experimental conditions (pressure, equilibrium moisture, and temperature). The results show that the estimated adsorption amounts agree well with the experimental ones, which prove the accuracy and robustness of the GBDT method. A comparison of the GBDT with two com... [more]

The goal of the paper is to develop an online forecasting procedure to be adopted within the H2020 InteGRIDy project, where the main objective is to use the photovoltaic (PV) forecast for optimizing the configuration of a distribution network (DN). Real-time measurements are obtained and saved for nine photovoltaic plants in a database, together with numerical weather predictions supplied from a commercial weather forecasting service. Adopting several error metrics as a performance index, as well as a historical data set for one of the plants on the DN, a preliminary analysis is performed investigating multiple statistical methods, with the objective of finding the most suitable one in terms of accuracy and computational effort. Hourly forecasts are performed each 6 h, for a horizon of 72 h. Having found the random forest method as the most suitable one, further hyper-parameter tuning of the algorithm was performed to improve performance. Optimal results with respect to normalized root... [more]

Load forecasting provides essential information for engineers and operators of an electric system. Using the forecast information, an electric utility company’s engineers make informed decisions in critical scenarios. The deregulation of energy industries makes load forecasting even more critical. In this article, the work we present, called Nearest Neighbors Load Forecasting (NNLF), was applied to very short-term load forecasting of electricity consumption at the national level in Mexico. The Energy Control National Center (CENACE—Spanish acronym) manages the National Interconnected System, working in a Real-Time Market system. The forecasting methodology we propose provides the information needed to solve the problem known as Economic Dispatch with Security Constraints for Multiple Intervals (MISCED). NNLF produces forecasts with a 15-min horizon to support decisions in the following four electric dispatch intervals. The hyperparameters used by Nearest Neighbors are tuned using Diffe... [more]

The analyzed research issue provides a model for Carbon Footprint estimation at an early design stage. In the context of climate neutrality, it is important to introduce regenerative design practices in the architect’s design process, especially in early design phases when the possibility of modifying the design is usually high. The research method was based on separate consecutive research works−partial tasks: Developing regenerative design guidelines for simulation purposes and for parametric modeling; generating a training set and a testing set of building designs with calculated total Carbon Footprint; using the pre-generated set to train a Machine Learning Model; applying the Machine Learning Model to predict optimal building features; prototyping an application for a quick estimation of the Total Carbon Footprint in the case of other projects in early design phases; updating the prototyped application with additional features; urban layout analysis; preparing a new approach based... [more]

As data centers have become increasingly important in recent years their operational management must attain higher efficiency and reliability. Moreover, the power consumption of a data center is extremely large, and it is anticipated that it will continue to increase, so energy saving has become an urgent issue concerning data centers. In the meantime, the environment of the server rooms in data centers has become complicated owing to the introduction of virtualization technology, the installation of high-heat density information and communication technology (ICT) equipment and racks, and the diversification of cooling methods. It is very difficult to manage a server room in the case of such a complicated environment. When energy-saving measures are implemented in a server room with such a complicated environment, it is important to evaluate “temperature risks” in advance and calculate the energy-saving effect after the measures are taken. Under those circumstances, in this study, two... [more]

Energy has a strategic role in the economic and social development of countries. In the last few decades, energy demand has been increasing exponentially across the world, and predicting energy demand has become one of the main concerns in many countries. The residential and commercial sectors constitute about 34.7% of global energy consumption. Anticipating energy demand in these sectors will help governments to supply energy sources and to develop their sustainable energy plans such as using renewable and non-renewable energy potentials for the development of a secure and environmentally friendly energy system. Modeling energy consumption in the residential and commercial sectors enables identification of the influential economic, social, and technological factors, resulting in a secure level of energy supply. In this paper, we forecast residential and commercial energy demands in Iran using three different machine learning methods, including multiple linear regression, logarithmic m... [more]

This study conducts saturation modeling in a gas hydrate (GH) sand sample with X-ray CT images using the following machine learning algorithms: random forest (RF), convolutional neural network (CNN), and support vector machine (SVM). The RF yields the best prediction performance for water, gas, and GH saturation in the samples among the three methods. The CNN and SVM also exhibit sufficient performances under the restricted conditions, but require improvements to their reliability and overall prediction performance. Furthermore, the RF yields the lowest mean square error and highest correlation coefficient between the original and predicted datasets. Although the GH CT images aid in approximately understanding how fluids act in a GH sample, difficulties were encountered in accurately understanding the behavior of GH in a GH sample during the experiments owing to limited physical conditions. Therefore, the proposed saturation modeling method can aid in understanding the behavior of GH i... [more]

In this paper a novel fault detection, isolation, and identification (FDI&E) scheme using a coupling diagnosis method with the integration of the model-based method and unsupervised learning algorithm is proposed and developed for monitoring gas turbine sensor faults, which represents an integration of Square Root Cubature Kalman Filters (SRCKF) and an improved Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Application with Noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. A detection indicator produced by SRCKF with a specific hypothesis is used for extracting sensor fault features against process and measurement noise, as well as operating conditions. Then, an improved DBSCAN is implemented based on a voting scheme to detect and isolate the faulty sensors. Finally, a residual-based fault estimation scheme is proposed to track sensor fault evolution and help to judge the types of faults. Moreover, the observability of the model involved is analyzed to verify the stable operation of the FDI&E scheme. Various experiments... [more]

Renewable Energy Communities consist in an emerging decentralized market mechanism which allows local energy exchanges between end-users, bypassing the traditional wholesale/retail market structure. In that configuration, local consumers and prosumers gather in communities and can either cooperate or compete towards a common objective, such as the minimization of the electricity costs and/or the minimization of greenhouse gas emissions for instance. This paper proposes data analytics modules which aim at helping the community members to schedule the usage of their resources (generation and consumption) in order to minimize their electricity bill. A day-ahead local wind power forecasting algorithm, which relies on state-of-the-art Machine Learning techniques currently used in worldwide forecasting contests, is in that way proposed. We develop furthermore an original method to improve the performance of neural network forecasting models in presence of abnormal wind power data. A techniqu... [more]

In today’s world, renewable energy sources are increasingly integrated with nonrenewable energy sources into electric grids and pose new challenges because of their intermittent and variable nature. Energy prediction using soft-computing techniques plays a vital role in addressing these challenges. As electricity consumption is closely linked to other energy sources such as natural gas and oil, forecasting electricity consumption is essential for making national energy policies. In this paper, we utilize various data mining techniques, including preprocessing historical load data and the load time series’s characteristics. We analyzed the power consumption trends from renewable energy sources and nonrenewable energy sources and combined them. A novel machine learning-based hybrid approach, combining multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), and CatBoost, is proposed in this paper for power forecasting. A thorough comparison is made, taking into account the results o... [more]

A good understanding of different rock types and their distribution is critical to locate oil and gas accumulations in the subsurface. Traditionally, rock core samples are used to directly determine the exact rock facies and what geological environments might be present. Core samples are often expensive to recover and, therefore, not always available for each well. Wireline logs provide a cheaper alternative to core samples, but they do not distinguish between various rock facies alone. This problem can be overcome by integrating limited core data with largely available wireline log data with machine learning. Here, we presented an application of machine learning in rock facies predictions based on limited core data from the Umiat Oil Field of Alaska. First, we identified five sandstone reservoir facies within the Lower Grandstand Member using core samples and mineralogical data available for the Umiat 18 well. Next, we applied machine learning algorithms (ascendant hierarchical cluste... [more]

Society’s concerns with electricity consumption have motivated researchers to improve on the way that energy consumption management is done. The reduction of energy consumption and the optimization of energy management are, therefore, two major aspects to be considered. Additionally, load forecast provides relevant information with the support of historical data allowing an enhanced energy management, allowing energy costs reduction. In this paper, the proposed consumption forecast methodology uses an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and incremental learning to increase the forecast accuracy. The ANN is retrained daily, providing an updated forecasting model. The case study uses 16 months of data, split in 5-min periods, from a real industrial facility. The advantages of using the proposed method are illustrated with the numerical results.

Drilling technology and specially drilling equipment has dramatically changed in the last 10 years through intensive and innovative technologies, both in terms of hardware and software. While engineers are focusing on safer, faster, and more reliable than ever technologies, big data and automation are currently considered the way forward to achieve these goals. Especially when automation concepts are proposed, the prior testing and qualification under a laboratory-controlled environment are mandatory. Drilling simulators have been hugely successful in training industry personnel and academic professionals. A big reason for its success lies in the seamless integration of hardware and software to include an interactive user interface. Physical experimental simulators have the advantage of exposing the user with visual and auditive aids to better understand the real process. This paper provides an insight into the construction and results obtained using a dedicated laboratory setup, which... [more]

Electricity theft and fraud in energy consumption are two of the major issues for power distribution companies (PDCs) for many years. PDCs around the world are trying different methodologies for detecting electricity theft. The traditional methods for non-technical losses (NTLs) detection such as onsite inspection and reward and penalty policy have lost their place in the modern era because of their ineffective and time-consuming mechanism. With the advancement in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), newer and efficient NTL detection methods have been proposed by different researchers working in the field of data mining and AI. The AI-based NTL detection methods are superior to the conventional methods in terms of accuracy, efficiency, time-consumption, precision, and labor required. The importance of such AI-based NTL detection methods can be judged by looking at the growing trend toward the increasing number of research articles on this important development. However, the autho... [more]

Deep neural networks are rapidly gaining popularity. However, their application requires setting multiple hyper-parameters, and the performance relies strongly on this choice. We address this issue and propose a robust ex-ante hyper-parameter selection procedure for the day-ahead electricity price forecasting that, when used jointly with a tested forecast averaging scheme, yields high performance throughout three-year long out-of-sample test periods in two distinct markets. Being based on a grid search with models evaluated on long samples, the methodology mitigates the noise induced by local optimization. Forecast averaging across calibration window lengths and hyper-parameter sets allows the proposed methodology to outperform a parameter-rich least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-estimated model and a deep neural network (DNN) with non-optimized hyper-parameters in terms of the mean absolute forecast error.

A simple yet effective optimization technique is developed to solve nonlinear conjugate heat transfer. The proposed Nonlinear Optimization with Replacement Strategy (NORS) is a mutation of several existing optimization processes. With the improvements of 3D metal printing of turbine components, it is feasible to have film holes with unconventional diameters, as these holes are created while printing the component. This paper seeks to optimize each film hole diameter at the leading edge of a turbine vane to satisfy several optimum thermal design objectives with given design constraints. The design technique developed uses linear regression-based machine learning model and further optimizes with strategic improvement of the training dataset. Optimization needs cost and benefit criteria are used to base its decision of success, and cost is minimized with maximum benefit within given constraints. This study minimizes the coolant flow (cost) while satisfying the constraints on average metal... [more]

This paper presents an on-line diagnosis method for large photovoltaic (PV) power plants by using a machine learning algorithm. Most renewable energy output power is decreased due to the lack of management tools and the skills of maintenance engineers. Additionally, many photovoltaic power plants have a long down-time due to the absence of a monitoring system and their distance from the city. The IEC 61724-1 standard is a Performance Ratio (PR) index that evaluates the PV power plant performance and reliability. However, the PR index has a low recognition rate of the fault state in conditions of low irradiation and bad weather. This paper presents a weather-corrected index, linear regression method, temperature correction equation, estimation error matrix, clearness index and proposed variable index, as well as a one-class Support Vector Machine (SVM) method and a kernel technique to classify the fault state and anomaly output power of PV plants.

This study focuses on establishing a surrogate model based on machine learning techniques to predict the time-averaged spatially distributed behaviors of vaporizing liquid jets in turbulent air crossflow for momentum flux ratios between 5 and 120. This surrogate model extends a previously developed Gaussian-process-based framework applicable to laminar flows to accommodate turbulent flows and demonstrates that in addition to detailed fields of primitive variables, second-order turbulence statistics can also be predicted using machine learning techniques. The framework proceeds in 3 steps—(1) design of experiment studies to identify training points and conducting high-fidelity calculations to build the training dataset; (2) Gaussian process regression (supervised training) for the range of operating conditions under consideration for gaseous and dispersed phase quantities; and (3) error quantification of the surrogate model by comparing the machine learning predictions with the truth mo... [more]

In order to combat climate change, many countries have promised to bolster Renewable Energy (RE) production following the Paris Agreement with some countries even setting a goal of 100% by 2025. The reasons are twofold: capitalizing on carbon emissions whilst concomitantly benefiting from reduced fossil fuel dependence and the fluctuations associated with imported fuel prices. However, numerous countries have not yet made preparations to increase RE production and integration. In many instances, this reluctance seems to be predominant in energy-rich countries, which typically provide heavy subsidies on electricity prices. With such subsidies, there is no incentive to invest in RE since the time taken to recoup such investments would be significant. We develop a model using a Neural Network (NN) regression algorithm to quantitatively illustrate this conjecture and also use it to predict the reduction in electricity price subsidies required to achieve a specified RE production target. Th... [more]

Granulators play a key role in many pharmaceutical processes because they are involved in the production of tablets and capsule dosage forms. Considering the characteristics of the production processes in which a granulator is involved, proper maintenance of the latter is relevant for plant safety. During the operational phase, there is a high risk of explosion, pollution, and contamination. The nature of this process also requires an in-depth examination of the time-dependence of the process variables. This study proposes the application of canonical variate analysis (CVA) to perform fault detection in a granulation process that operates under time-varying conditions. Beyond this, a different approach to the management of process non-linearities is proposed. The novelty of the study is in the application of CVA in this kind of process, because it is possible to state that the actual literature on the theme shows some limitations of CVA in such processes. The aim was to increase the ap... [more]

The energy efficiency of Data Center (DC) operations heavily relies on a DC ambient temperature as well as its IT and cooling systems performance. A reliable and efficient cooling system is necessary to produce a persistent flow of cold air to cool servers that are subjected to constantly increasing computational load due to the advent of smart cloud-based applications. Consequently, the increased demand for computing power will inadvertently increase server waste heat creation in data centers. To improve a DC thermal profile which could undeniably influence energy efficiency and reliability of IT equipment, it is imperative to explore the thermal characteristics analysis of an IT room. This work encompasses the employment of an unsupervised machine learning technique for uncovering weaknesses of a DC cooling system based on real DC monitoring thermal data. The findings of the analysis result in the identification of areas for thermal management and cooling improvement that further fee... [more]

With the increase in penetration of photovoltaics (PV) into the power system, the correct prediction of return on investment requires accurate prediction of decrease in power output over time. Degradation rates and corresponding degraded energy estimation must be known in order to predict power delivery accurately. Solar radiation plays a key role in long-term solar energy predictions. A combination of auto-encoder and long short-term memory (AE-LSTM) based deep learning approach is adopted for long-term solar radiation forecasting. First, the auto-encoder (AE) is trained for the feature extraction, and then fine-tuning with long short-term memory (LSTM) is done to get the final prediction. The input data consist of clear sky global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and historical solar radiation. After forecasting the solar radiation for three years, the corresponding degradation rate (DR) influenced energy potentials of an a-Si PV system is estimated. The estimated energy is useful economi... [more]