Effectively transporting drilled cuttings to the surface is a vital part of the well construction process. Usually, mechanistic models are used to estimate the cuttings concentration during drilling. Based on the results from these model, operational parameters are adjusted to mitigate any nonproductive time events such as pack-off or lost circulation. However, these models do not capture the underlying complex physics completely and frequently require updating the input parameters, which is usually performed manually. To address this, in this study, a data-driven modeling approach is taken and evaluated together with widely used mechanistic models. Artificial neural networks are selected after several trials. The experimental data collected at The University of Tulsa−Drilling Research Projects (in the last 40 years) are used to train and validate the model, which includes a wide range of wellbore and pipe sizes, inclinations, rate-of-penetration values, pipe rotation speeds, flow rate... [more]

A stand-alone machine learned turbulence model is developed and applied for the solution of steady and unsteady boundary layer equations, and issues and constraints associated with the model are investigated. The results demonstrate that an accurately trained machine learned model can provide grid convergent, smooth solutions, work in extrapolation mode, and converge to a correct solution from ill-posed flow conditions. The accuracy of the machine learned response surface depends on the choice of flow variables, and training approach to minimize the overlap in the datasets. For the former, grouping flow variables into a problem relevant parameter for input features is desirable. For the latter, incorporation of physics-based constraints during training is helpful. Data clustering is also identified to be a useful tool as it avoids skewness of the model towards a dominant flow feature.

The traditional way to mitigate loss circulation in drilling operations is to use preventative and curative materials. However, it is difficult to quantify the amount of materials from every possible combination to produce customized rheological properties. In this study, machine learning (ML) is used to develop a framework to identify material composition for loss circulation applications based on the desired rheological characteristics. The relation between the rheological properties and the mud components for polyacrylamide/polyethyleneimine (PAM/PEI)-based mud is assessed experimentally. Four different ML algorithms were implemented to model the rheological data for various mud components at different concentrations and testing conditions. These four algorithms include (a) k-Nearest Neighbor, (b) Random Forest, (c) Gradient Boosting, and (d) AdaBoosting. The Gradient Boosting model showed the highest accuracy (91 and 74% for plastic and apparent viscosity, respectively), which can... [more]

This research aims to bring together thermal modelling and machine learning approaches to improve the understanding on the operation and fault detection of a wind turbine gearbox. Recent fault detection research has focused on machine learning, black box approaches. Although it can be successful, it provides no indication of the physical behaviour. In this paper, thermal network modelling was applied to two datasets using SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) temperature data, with the aim of detecting a fault one month before failure. A machine learning approach was used on the same data to compare the results to thermal modelling. The results found that thermal network modelling could successfully detect a fault in many of the turbines examined and was validated by the machine learning approach for one of the datasets. For that same dataset, it was found that combining the thermal model losses and the machine learning approach by using the modelled losses as a feature in t... [more]

A reliable prediction of sustainable energy consumption is key for designing environmentally friendly buildings. In this study, three novel hybrid intelligent methods, namely the grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA), wind-driven optimization (WDO), and biogeography-based optimization (BBO), are employed to optimize the multitarget prediction of heating loads (HLs) and cooling loads (CLs) in the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. Concerning the optimization of the applied algorithms, a series of swarm-based iterations are performed, and the best structure is proposed for each model. The GOA, WDO, and BBO algorithms are mixed with a class of feedforward artificial neural networks (ANNs), which is called a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to predict the HL and CL. According to the sensitivity analysis, the WDO with swarm size = 500 proposes the most-fitted ANN. The proposed WDO-ANN provided an accurate prediction in terms of heating load (training (R2 correlation =... [more]

The article deals with the problem of detecting moisture in the walls of historical buildings. As part of the presented research, the following four methods based on mathematical modeling and machine learning were compared: total variation, least-angle regression, elastic net, and artificial neural networks. Based on the simulation data, the systems for the reconstruction of “pixel by pixel” tomographic images were trained. In order to test the reconstructive algorithms obtained during the research, images were generated based on real measurements and simulation cases. The method comparison was performed on the basis of three indicators: mean square error, relative image error, and image correlation coefficient. The above indicators were applied to four selected variants that corresponded to various parts of the walls. The variants differed in the dimensions of the tested wall sections, the number of electrodes used, and the resolution of the 3D image meshes. In all analyzed variants,... [more]

This paper addresses very short-term (10 s) forecasting of power demand of highly variable loads. The main purpose of this study is to develop methods useful for this type of forecast. We have completed a comprehensive study using two different time series, which are very difficult to access in practice, of 10 s power demand characterized by big dynamics of load changes. This is an emerging and promising forecasting research topic, yet to be more widely recognized in the forecasting research community. This problem is particularly important in microgrids, i.e., small energy micro-systems. Power demand forecasting, like forecasting of renewable power generation, is of key importance, especially in island mode operation of microgrids. This is due to the necessity of ensuring reliable power supplies to consumers. Inaccurate very short-term forecasts can cause improper operation of microgrids or increase costs/decrease profits in the electricity market. This paper presents a detailed stati... [more]

Primary frequency reserves in Northern Europe have traditionally been provided with hydro plants and fossil fuel-burning spinning reserves. Recently, smart distributed energy resources have been equipped with functionality needed to participate on frequency reserves. Key categories of such resources include photovoltaic systems, batteries, and smart loads. Most of these resources are small and cannot provide the minimum controllable power required to participate on frequency reserves. Thus, virtual power plants have been used to aggregate the resources and trade them on the frequency reserves markets. The information technology aspects of virtual power plants are proprietary and many of the details have not been made public. The first contribution of this article is to propose a generic data model and application programming interface for a virtual power plant with the above-mentioned capabilities. The second contribution is to use the application programming interface to cope with the... [more]

The ability to forecast electricity generation for a small wind turbine is important both on a larger scale where there are many such turbines (because it creates problems for networks managed by distribution system operators) and for prosumers to allow current energy consumption planning. It is also important for owners of small energy systems in order to optimize the use of various energy sources and facilitate energy storage. The research presented here addresses an original, rarely predicted 48 h forecasting horizon for small wind turbines. This topic has been rather underrepresented in research, especially in comparison with forecasts for large wind farms. Wind speed forecasts with a 48 h horizon are also rarely used as input data. We have analyzed the available data to identify potentially useful explanatory variables for forecasting models. Eight sets with increasing data amounts were created to analyze the influence of the types and amounts of data on forecast quality. Hybrid,... [more]

Proper management of solar energy as an effective renewable source is of high importance toward sustainable energy harvesting. This paper offers a novel sophisticated method for predicting solar irradiance (SIr) from environmental conditions. To this end, an efficient metaheuristic technique, namely electromagnetic field optimization (EFO), is employed for optimizing a neural network. This algorithm quickly mines a publicly available dataset for nonlinearly tuning the network parameters. To suggest an optimal configuration, five influential parameters of the EFO are optimized by an extensive trial and error practice. Analyzing the results showed that the proposed model can learn the SIr pattern and predict it for unseen conditions with high accuracy. Furthermore, it provided about 10% and 16% higher accuracy compared to two benchmark optimizers, namely shuffled complex evolution and shuffled frog leaping algorithm. Hence, the EFO-supervised neural network can be a promising tool for th... [more]

A vehicle ad hoc network (VANET) is a solution for road safety, congestion management, and infotainment services. Integration of cognitive radio (CR), known as CR-VANET, is needed to solve the spectrum scarcity problems of VANET. Several research efforts have addressed the concerns of CR-VANET. However, more reliable, robust, and faster spectrum sensing is still a challenge. A novel segment-based CR-VANET (Seg-CR-VANET) architecture is therefore proposed in this paper. Roads are divided equally into segments, and they are sub-segmented based on the probability value. Individual vehicles or secondary users produce local sensing results by choosing an optimal spectrum sensing (SS) technique using a hybrid machine learning algorithm that includes fuzzy and naïve Bayes algorithms. We used dynamic threshold values for the sensing techniques. In this proposed cooperative SS, the segment spectrum agent (SSA) made the global decision using the tri-agent reinforcement learning (TA-RL) algorithm... [more]

Owing to the ever-growing impetus towards the development of eco-friendly and low carbon footprint energy solutions, biodiesel production and usage have been the subject of tremendous research efforts. The biodiesel production process is driven by several process parameters, which must be maintained at optimum levels to ensure high productivity. Since biodiesel productivity and quality are also dependent on the various raw materials involved in transesterification, physical experiments are necessary to make any estimation regarding them. However, a brute force approach of carrying out physical experiments until the optimal process parameters have been achieved will not succeed, due to a large number of process parameters and the underlying non-linear relation between the process parameters and responses. In this regard, a machine learning-based prediction approach is used in this paper to quantify the response features of the biodiesel production process as a function of the process pa... [more]

A main challenge for integrating the intermittent photovoltaic (PV) power generation remains the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts and the establishment of robust performing methods. The purpose of this work is to address these technological challenges by evaluating the day-ahead PV production forecasting performance of different machine learning models under different supervised learning regimes and minimal input features. Specifically, the day-ahead forecasting capability of Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR), and regression tree (RT) models was investigated by employing the same dataset for training and performance verification, thus enabling a valid comparison. The training regime analysis demonstrated that the performance of the investigated models was strongly dependent on the timeframe of the train set, training data sequence, and application of irradiance condition filters. Furthermore, accurate results were obtained utilizing only the measured power o... [more]

Machine-learning technologies have exhibited robust competences in solving many petroleum engineering problems. The accurate predictivity and fast computational speed enable a large volume of time-consuming engineering processes such as history-matching and field development optimization. The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) project desires rigorous history-matching and multi-objective optimization processes, which fits the superiorities of the machine-learning approaches. Although the machine-learning proxy models are trained and validated before imposing to solve practical problems, the error margin would essentially introduce uncertainties to the results. In this paper, a hybrid numerical machine-learning workflow solving various optimization problems is presented. By coupling the expert machine-learning proxies with a global optimizer, the workflow successfully solves the history-matching and CO2 water alternative gas (WAG) design problem with low comput... [more]

Estimation of fluid saturation is an important step in dynamic reservoir characterization. Machine learning techniques have been increasingly used in recent years for reservoir saturation prediction workflows. However, most of these studies require input parameters derived from cores, petrophysical logs, or seismic data, which may not always be readily available. Additionally, very few studies incorporate the production data, which is an important reflection of the dynamic reservoir properties and also typically the most frequently and reliably measured quantity throughout the life of a field. In this research, the random forest ensemble machine learning algorithm is implemented that uses the field-wide production and injection data (both measured at the surface) as the only input parameters to predict the time-lapse oil saturation profiles at well locations. The algorithm is optimized using feature selection based on feature importance score and Pearson correlation coefficient, in com... [more]

The behaviours of individual flow structures have become a relevant matter of study in turbulent flows as the computational power to allow their study feasible has become available. Especially, high instantaneous Reynolds Stress events have been found to dominate the behaviour of the logarithmic layer. In this work, we present a viability study where two machine learning solutions are proposed to reduce the computational cost of tracking such structures in large domains. The first one is a Multi-Layer Perceptron. The second one uses Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Both of the methods are developed with the objective of taking the the structures’ geometrical features as inputs from which to predict the structures’ geometrical features in future time steps. Some of the tested Multi-Layer Perceptron architectures proved to perform better and achieve higher accuracy than the LSTM architectures tested, providing lower errors on the predictions and achieving higher accuracy in relating the st... [more]

Many electric utilities currently have a low level of smart meter implementation on traditional distribution grids. These utilities commonly have a problem associated with non-technical energy losses (NTLs) to unidentified energy flows consumed, but not billed in power distribution grids. They are usually due to either the electricity theft carried out by their own customers or failures in the utilities’ energy measurement systems. Non-technical energy losses lead to significant economic losses for electric utilities around the world. For instance, in Latin America and the Caribbean countries, NTLs represent around 15% of total energy generated in 2018, varying between 5 and 30% depending on the country because of the strong correlation with social, economic, political, and technical variables. According to this, electric utilities have a strong interest in finding new techniques and methods to mitigate this problem as much as possible. This research presents the results of determining... [more]

Dead oil viscosity is a critical parameter to solve numerous reservoir engineering problems and one of the most unreliable properties to predict with classical black oil correlations. Determination of dead oil viscosity by experiments is expensive and time-consuming, which means developing an accurate and quick prediction model is required. This paper implements six machine learning models: random forest (RF), lightgbm, XGBoost, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, stochastic real-valued (SRV) and SuperLearner to predict dead oil viscosity. More than 2000 pressure−volume−temperature (PVT) data were used for developing and testing these models. A huge range of viscosity data were used, from light intermediate to heavy oil. In this study, we give insight into the performance of different functional forms that have been used in the literature to formulate dead oil viscosity. The results show that the functional form f(γAPI,T), has the best performance, and additional correlating pa... [more]

Smart-meter technology advancements have resulted in the generation of massive volumes of information introducing new opportunities for energy services and data-driven business models. One such service is non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM). NILM is a process to break down the electricity consumption on an appliance level by analyzing the total aggregated data measurements monitored from a single point. Most prominent existing solutions use deep learning techniques resulting in models with millions of parameters and a high computational burden. Some of these solutions use the turn-on transient response of the target appliance to calculate its energy consumption, while others require the total operation cycle. In the latter case, disaggregation is performed either with delay (in the order of minutes) or only for past events. In this paper, a real-time NILM system is proposed. The scope of the proposed NILM algorithm is to detect the turning-on of a target appliance by processing the me... [more]

Modern energy automation solutions and demand response applications rely on load profiles to monitor and manage electricity consumption effectively. The introduction of smart control systems capable of handling additional fuzzy parameters, such as weather data, through machine learning methods, offers valuable insights in an attempt to adjust consumer behavior optimally. Following recent advances in the field of fuzzy control, this study presents the design and implementation of a fuzzy control system that processes environmental data in order to recommend minimum energy consumption values for a residential building. This system follows the forward chaining Mamdani approach and uses decision tree linearization for rule generation. Additionally, a hybrid feature selector is implemented based on XGBoost and decision tree metrics for feature importance. The proposed structure discovers and generates a small set of fuzzy rules that highlights the energy consumption behavior of the building... [more]

Lithium-ion batteries power numerous systems from consumer electronics to electric vehicles, and thus undergo qualification testing for degradation assessment prior to deployment. Qualification testing involves repeated charge−discharge operation of the batteries, which can take more than three months if subjected to 500 cycles at a C-rate of 0.5C. Accelerated degradation testing can be used to reduce extensive test time, but its application requires a careful selection of stress factors. To address this challenge, this study identifies and ranks stress factors in terms of their effects on battery degradation (capacity fade) using half-fractional design of experiments and machine learning. Two case studies are presented involving 96 lithium-ion batteries from two different manufacturers, tested under five different stress factors. Results show that neither the individual (main) effects nor the two-way interaction effects of charge C-rate and depth of discharge rank in the top three sig... [more]

In recent years, machine learning applications have received increasing interest from power system researchers. The successful performance of these applications is dependent on the availability of extensive and diverse datasets for the training and validation of machine learning frameworks. However, power systems operate at quasi-steady-state conditions for most of the time, and the measurements corresponding to these states provide limited novel knowledge for the development of machine learning applications. In this paper, a data mining approach based on optimization techniques is proposed for filtering root-mean-square (RMS) voltage profiles and identifying unusual measurements within triggerless power quality datasets. Then, datasets with equal representation between event and non-event observations are created so that machine learning algorithms can extract useful insights from the rare but important event observations. The proposed framework is demonstrated and validated with both... [more]

Frequency control is essential to ensure reliability and quality of power systems. North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s (NERC) Control Performance Standard 1 (CPS1) is widely adopted by many operating authorities to examine the quality of the frequency control. The operating authority would have a strong interest in knowing how the frequency-sensitive features affect the CPS1 score and finding out more effective unit-dispatch schedules for reaching the CPS1 goal. As frequency-sensitive features usually possess multi-variable and high-correlated characteristics, this paper employed an ensemble learning technique (the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree algorithm, GBDT) to construct Frequency Response Model (FRM) of the Taipower system in Taiwan to evaluate by CPS1 score. The proposed CPS1 model was then integrated with Unit Commitment (UC) program to determine the unit-dispatch that achieves the targeted CPS1 score. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed CPS1-UC plat... [more]

Nowadays we can observe a growing demand for installations of new gas pipelines in Europe. A large number of them are installed using trenchless Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) technology. The aim of this work was to develop and compare new machine learning models dedicated for risk assessment in HDD projects. The data from 133 HDD projects from eight countries of the world were gathered, profiled, and preprocessed. Three machine learning models, logistic regression, random forests, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), were developed to predict the overall HDD project outcome (failure free installation or installation likely to fail), and the occurrence of identified unwanted events. The best performance in terms of recall and accuracy was achieved for the developed ANN model, which proved to be efficient, fast and robust in predicting risks in HDD projects. Machine learning applications in the proposed models enabled eliminating the involvement of a group of experts in the risk... [more]

Fault detection in microgrids presents a strong technical challenge due to the dynamic operating conditions. Changing the power generation and load impacts the current magnitude and direction, which has an adverse effect on the microgrid protection scheme. To address this problem, this paper addresses a field-transform-based fault detection method immune to the microgrid conditions. The faults are simulated via a Matlab/Simulink model of the grid-connected photovoltaics-based DC microgrid with battery energy storage. Short-time Fourier transform is applied to the fault time signal to obtain a frequency spectrum. Selected spectrum features are then provided to a number of intelligent classifiers. The classifiers’ scores were evaluated using the F1-score metric. Most classifiers proved to be reliable as their performance score was above 90%.