Flexibility is a critical feature of any industrial system as it tells us about the range of conditions under which the system can effectively and safely operate. It is becoming increasingly important as we face greater volatilities in market conditions, diverse customer needs, more stringent safety and environmental regulations, the growing use of resources with varying availability such as renewable energy, and an increased likelihood of disruptions caused by, for example, extreme weather... (ABSTRACT ABBREVIATED)

This work explores the economic and environmental opportunities for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the Brazilian sugarcane industry. Brazil was one of the first countries to use biomass fuels for transportation and is currently the 2nd largest producer of the world’s bioethanol. Bioethanol produced from sugarcane can be upgraded to SAF via the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM)-certified pathway alcohol-to-jet (ATJ); however, at least two challenges exist for commercial implementation. First, technologies to produce bio-jet fuels cost more than their conventional fossil-based counterparts. Second, there is considerable uncertainty regarding returns on investment as the sugar and ethanol markets have been historically volatile. As such, we propose a new optimization model to inform risk-conscious investment decisions on SAF production capacity in sugarcane mills. Specifically, we propose a linear program (LP) to model an integrated sugarcane mill that can produce suga... [more]

The food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) has been receiving increasing interest in the open literature as a framework to address the widening gap between natural resource availability and demand, towards more sustainable and cost-competitive solutions. The FEWN aims at holistically integrating the three interconnected subsystems of food, energy and water, into a single representative network. However, such an integration poses formidable challenges due to the complexity and multi-scale nature of the three subsystems and their respective interconnections. Additionally, the significant input data uncertainty and variability, such as energy prices and demands, or the evaluation of emerging technologies, contribute to the system’s inherent complexity. In this work, we revisit the FEWN problem in an attempt to elucidate and address in a systematic way issues related to its multi-scale complexity, uncertainty and variability. In particular, we provide a classification of the sources of data and te... [more]

With growing concern over the effects of green-house gas emissions, there has been an increase in emission-reducing policies by governments around the world, with over 70 countries having set net-zero emission goals by 2050-2060. These are ambitious goals that will require large investments into the expansion of renewable and low-carbon technologies. The decisions about which technologies should be invested in can be difficult to make since they are based on information about the future, which is uncertain. When considering emerging technologies, a source of uncertainty to consider is how the costs will develop over time. Learning curves are used to model the decrease in cost as the total installed capacity of a technology increases. However, the extent to which the cost decreases is uncertain. To address the uncertainty present in multiple aspects of the energy sector, multistage stochastic programming is employed considering both exogenous and endogenous uncertainties. It is observed... [more]

Chemical recycling of plastics is a promising technology to reduce carbon footprint and ease the pressure of waste treatment. Specifically, highly efficient conversion technologies for polyolefins will be the most effective solution to address the plastic waste crisis, given that polyolefins are the primary contributors to global plastic production. Significant challenges encountered by plastic waste valorization facilities include the uncertainty in the composition of the waste feedstock, process yield, and product price. These variabilities can lead to compromised performance or even render operations infeasible. To address these challenges, this work applied the robust optimization-based framework to design an integrated polyolefin chemical recycling plant. Data-driven surrogate model was built to capture the separation units’ behavior and reduce the computational complexity of the optimization problem. It was found that when process yield and price uncertainties were considered, wa... [more]

In this work, we present recent algorithmic and implementation advances of the nonconvex two-stage robust optimization solver PyROS. Our advances include extensions of the scope of PyROS to models with uncertain variable bounds, improvements to the formulations and/or initializations of the various subproblems used by the underlying cutting set algorithm, and extensions to the pre-implemented uncertainty set interfaces. The effectiveness of PyROS is demonstrated through the results of an original benchmarking study on a library of over 8,500 small-scale instances, with variations in the nonlinearities, degree-of-freedom partitioning, uncertainty sets, and polynomial decision rule approximations. To demonstrate the utility of PyROS for large-scale process models, we present the results of a carbon capture case study. Overall, our results highlight the effectiveness of PyROS for obtaining robust solutions to optimization problems with uncertain equality constraints.

This paper presents an algorithm for developing sparse surrogate models that satisfy mass/energy conservation even when the training data are noisy and violate the conservation laws. In the first step, we employ the Bayesian Identification of Dynamic Sparse Algebraic Model (BIDSAM) algorithm proposed in our previous work to obtain a set of hierarchically ranked sparse models which approximate system behaviors with linear combinations of a set of well-defined basis functions. Although the model building algorithm was shown to be robust to noisy data, conservation laws may not be satisfied by the surrogate models. In this work we propose an algorithm that augments a data reconciliation step with the BIDSAM model for satisfaction of conservation laws. This method relies only on known boundary conditions and hence is generic for any chemical system. Two case studies are considered-one focused on mass conservation and another on energy conservation. Results show that models with minimum bia... [more]

Two process designs for the separation section of a flexible dimethyl ether and methanol polygeneration plant are presented, as well as an optimization method which can determine the optimal design under market uncertainty quickly and to global optimality without loss of model fidelity. The polygeneration plant produces a product mixture that is either mostly dimethyl ether or mostly methanol depending on market conditions by using a classic two-stage dimethyl ether production catalytic reaction route in which the second stage is bypassed when the market demand is such that methanol production is more favorable than dimethyl ether. The downstream distillation sequence is designed to purify the products to desired specifications despite the wide variability in feed condition that corresponds to the upstream reaction system operating either in DME-rich or methanol-rich mode. Because the optimal design depends on uncertain market conditions (realized as the percentage of the time in which... [more]