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Records with Keyword: Machine Learning
423. LAPSE:2023.20152
Predicting the Parameters of Vortex Bladeless Wind Turbine Using Deep Learning Method of Long Short-Term Memory
March 10, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Computational Fluid Dynamics, data science, deep learning, Energy, Energy Conversion, long short-term memory, Machine Learning, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, wind turbine
From conventional turbines to cutting-edge bladeless turbines, energy harvesting from wind has been well explored by researchers for more than a century. The vortex bladeless wind turbine (VBT) is considered an advanced design that alternatively harvests energy from oscillation. This research investigates enhancing the output electrical power of VBT through simulation of the fluid−solid interactions (FSI), leading to a comprehensive dataset for predicting procedure and optimal design. Hence, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method, due to its time-series prediction accuracy, is proposed to model the power of VBT from the collected data. To find the relationship between the parameters and the variables used in this research, a correlation matrix is further presented. According to the value of 0.3 for the root mean square error (RMSE), a comparative analysis between the simulation results and their predictions indicates that the LSTM method is suitable for modeling. Furthermore, the LST... [more]
424. LAPSE:2023.20065
Advances in the Application of Machine Learning Techniques for Power System Analytics: A Survey
March 10, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: intelligent transportation, load forecasting, Machine Learning, photovoltaic, power flows, power quality, power systems, smart grids, survey
The recent advances in computing technologies and the increasing availability of large amounts of data in smart grids and smart cities are generating new research opportunities in the application of Machine Learning (ML) for improving the observability and efficiency of modern power grids. However, as the number and diversity of ML techniques increase, questions arise about their performance and applicability, and on the most suitable ML method depending on the specific application. Trying to answer these questions, this manuscript presents a systematic review of the state-of-the-art studies implementing ML techniques in the context of power systems, with a specific focus on the analysis of power flows, power quality, photovoltaic systems, intelligent transportation, and load forecasting. The survey investigates, for each of the selected topics, the most recent and promising ML techniques proposed by the literature, by highlighting their main characteristics and relevant results. The r... [more]
425. LAPSE:2023.19929
Machine Learning-Based Production Prediction Model and Its Application in Duvernay Formation
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: grey relation analysis, Machine Learning, production prediction, sensitivity analysis
The production of a single gas well is influenced by many geological and completion factors. The aim of this paper is to build a production prediction model based on machine learning technique and identify the most important factor for production. Firstly, around 159 horizontal wells were collected, targeting the Duvernay Formation with detailed geological and completion records. Secondly, the key factors were selected using grey relation analysis and Pearson correlation. Then, three statistical models were built through multiple linear regression (MLR), support vector regression (SVR), gaussian process regression (GPR). The model inputs include fluid volume, proppant amount, cluster counts, stage counts, total horizontal lateral length, gas saturation, total organic carbon content, condensate-gas ratio. The model performance was assessed by root mean squared errors (RMSE) and R-squared value. Finally, sensitivity analysis was applied based on best performance model. The analysis shows... [more]
426. LAPSE:2023.19851
Data-Driven Virtual Replication of Thermostatically Controlled Domestic Heating Systems
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: connected thermostats, energy conservation, forecasting, Machine Learning, residential buildings
Thermostatic load control systems are widespread in many countries. Since they provide heat for domestic hot water and space heating on a massive scale in the residential sector, the assessment of their energy performance and the effect of different control strategies requires simplified modeling techniques demanding a small number of inputs and low computational resources. Data-driven techniques are envisaged as one of the best options to meet these constraints. This paper presents a novel methodology consisting of the combination of an optimization algorithm, two auto-regressive models and a control loop algorithm able to virtually replicate the control of thermostatically driven systems. This combined strategy includes all the thermostatically controlled modes governed by the set point temperature and enables automatic assessment of the energy consumption impact of multiple scenarios. The required inputs are limited to available historical readings from smart thermostats and externa... [more]
427. LAPSE:2023.19832
A Generic Pipeline for Machine Learning Users in Energy and Buildings Domain
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: benchmarking, evaluation and model verification, features, Machine Learning, pipeline, prediction, training, tuning, validation
One of the biggest problems in applying machine learning (ML) in the energy and buildings field is the lack of experience of ML users in implementing each ML algorithm in real-life applications the right way, because each algorithm has prerequisites to be used and specific problems or applications to be implemented. Hence, this paper introduces a generic pipeline to the ML users in the specified field to guide them to select the best-fitting algorithm based on their particular applications and to help them to implement the selected algorithm correctly to achieve the best performance. The introduced pipeline is built on (1) reviewing the most popular trails to put ML pipelines for the energy and building, with a declaration for each trial drawbacks to avoid it in the proposed pipeline; (2) reviewing the most popular ML algorithms in the energy and buildings field and linking them with possible applications in the energy and buildings field in one layout; (3) a full description of the pr... [more]
428. LAPSE:2023.19748
A Systematic Review of Energy Management Strategies for Resource Allocation in the Cloud: Clustering, Optimization and Machine Learning
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: cloud data centers, clustering methods, energy consumption, Machine Learning, Optimization, physical machines, resources allocation, virtual machines
Nowadays, many organizations and individual users are employing cloud services extensively due to their efficiency, reliability and low cost. A key aspect for cloud data centers is to achieve management methods to reduce energy consumption, increasing the profit and reducing the environmental impact, which is critical in the deployment of leading-edge technologies today such as blockchain and digital finances, IoT, online gaming and video streaming. In this review, various clustering, optimization, and machine learning methods used in cloud resource allocation to increase the energy efficiency and performance are analyzed, compared and classified. Specifically, on the one hand, we discuss how clustering methods and optimization techniques are widely applied in energy management due to their capacity to provide solutions for energy consumption reduction. On the other hand, we study how multi-objective optimization methods focus on reducing energy consumption as well as service level agr... [more]
429. LAPSE:2023.19607
Intelligent Condition Monitoring of Wind Power Systems: State of the Art Review
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: condition monitoring, data mining, diagnosis, health management, Machine Learning, operations and maintenance, prognosis, wind turbines
Modern wind turbines operate in continuously transient conditions, with varying speed, torque, and power based on the stochastic nature of the wind resource. This variability affects not only the operational performance of the wind power system, but can also affect its integrity under service conditions. Condition monitoring continues to play an important role in achieving reliable and economic operation of wind turbines. This paper reviews the current advances in wind turbine condition monitoring, ranging from conventional condition monitoring and signal processing tools to machine-learning-based condition monitoring and usage of big data mining for predictive maintenance. A systematic review is presented of signal-based and data-driven modeling methodologies using intelligent and machine learning approaches, with the view to providing a critical evaluation of the recent developments in this area, and their applications in diagnosis, prognosis, health assessment, and predictive mainte... [more]
430. LAPSE:2023.19600
A Comprehensive Review of Lithium-Ion Cell Temperature Estimation Techniques Applicable to Health-Conscious Fast Charging and Smart Battery Management Systems
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: computational cost, electric vehicles, electromagnetic impedance spectroscopy, Kalman filter, Machine Learning, online prediction, thermal modelling
Highly nonlinear characteristics of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) are significantly influenced by the external and internal temperature of the LIB cell. Moreover, a cell temperature beyond the manufacturer’s specified safe operating limit could lead to thermal runaway and even fire hazards and safety concerns to operating personnel. Therefore, accurate information of cell internal and surface temperature of LIB is highly crucial for effective thermal management and proper operation of a battery management system (BMS). Accurate temperature information is also essential to BMS for the accurate estimation of various important states of LIB, such as state of charge, state of health and so on. High-capacity LIB packs, used in electric vehicles and grid-tied stationary energy storage system essentially consist of thousands of individual LIB cells. Therefore, installing a physical sensor at each cell, especially at the cell core, is not practically feasible from the solution cost, space and w... [more]
431. LAPSE:2023.19466
Exploring and Predicting the Knowledge Development in the Field of Energy Storage: Evidence from the Emerging Startup Landscape
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: battery, co-classification, Crunchbase, Energy Storage, link prediction, Machine Learning, network analysis, startups, technological development
The distribution and deployment of energy storage systems on a larger scale will be a key element of successfully managing the sustainable energy transition by balancing the power generation capability and load demand. In this context, it is crucial for researchers and policy makers to understand the underlying knowledge structure and key interaction dynamics that could shape the future innovation trajectory. A data-driven approach is used to analyze the evolving characteristics of knowledge dynamics from static, dynamic and future-oriented perspective. To this end, a network analysis was performed to determine the influence of individual knowledge areas. Subsequently, an interaction trend analysis based on emergence indicators was conducted to highlight the promising relations. Finally, the formation of new knowledge interactions is predicted using a link prediction technique. The findings show that ensuring the energy efficiency is a key issue that has persisted over time. In future,... [more]
432. LAPSE:2023.19428
Sustainable Consumption in Consumer Behavior in the Time of COVID-19: Topic Modeling on Twitter Data Using LDA
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: consumer behavior, coronavirus, COVID-19, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), Machine Learning, semantic analysis, semantic network analysis, sentiment analysis, sustainable consumption, Twitter
By using text mining techniques, this study identifies the topics of sustainable consumption that are important during the COVID-19 pandemic. An Application Programming Interface (API) streaming method was used to extract the data from Twitter. A total of 14,591 tweets were collected using Twitter streaming API. However, after data cleaning, 13,635 tweets were considered for analysis. The objectives of the study are to identify (1) the topics users tweet about sustainable consumption and (2) to detect the emotion-based sentiments in the tweets. The study used Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm for topic modeling and the Louvain algorithm for semantic network clustering. NRC emotion lexicon was used for sentiment analysis. The LDA model discovers six topics: organic food consumption, food waste, vegan food, sustainable tourism, sustainable transport, and sustainable energy consumption. While the Louvain algorithm detects four clusters—lifestyle and climate change, responsible c... [more]
433. LAPSE:2023.19427
Forecasting Natural Gas Spot Prices with Machine Learning
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: forecasting, Machine Learning, Natural Gas, spot price
The ability to accurately forecast the spot price of natural gas benefits stakeholders and is a valuable tool for all market participants in the competitive gas market. In this paper, we attempt to forecast the natural gas spot price 1, 3, 5, and 10 days ahead using machine learning methods: support vector machines (SVM), regression trees, linear regression, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and ensemble of trees. These models are trained with a set of 21 explanatory variables in a 5-fold cross-validation scheme with 90% of the dataset used for training and the remaining 10% used for testing the out-of-sample generalization ability. The results show that these machine learning methods all have different forecasting accuracy for every time frame when it comes to forecasting natural gas spot prices. However, the bagged trees (belonging to the ensemble of trees method) and the linear SVM models have superior forecasting performance compared to the rest of the models.
434. LAPSE:2023.19426
Optimal Allocation for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: clustering, electric vehicle charging, feature importance, kriging, Machine Learning
Currently, more than 30% of the fine dust generated in the Seoul metropolitan area is a pollutant emitted from automobiles such as diesel vehicles, and air pollution caused by this is becoming increasingly serious. In addition, the importance of electric vehicle distribution is increasing due to the strengthening of international environmental regulations on automobile exhaust gas and increasing the possibility of depletion of petroleum resources. This manuscript proposes a method for selecting an optimal electric vehicle charging station location in expanding charging facilities to activate electric vehicle distribution. For the sake of illustration, directions will be provided on how to select the best location for electric vehicle charging stations using data from Seoul, which has the best access. As the features, the number of living population and work force people and the number of guest facilities, which are determined to affect demand for quick charging, are considered. The mis... [more]
435. LAPSE:2023.19368
A Machine-Learning Approach to Identify the Influence of Temperature on FRA Measurements
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: comparative standard deviation, frequency response analysis interpretation, Machine Learning, support vector machine, transformer condition monitoring
Frequency response analysis (FRA) is a powerful and widely used tool for condition assessment in power transformers. However, interpretation schemes are still challenging. Studies show that FRA data can be influenced by parameters other than winding deformation, including temperature. In this study, a machine-learning approach with temperature as an input attribute was used to objectively identify faults in FRA traces. To the best knowledge of the authors, this has not been reported in the literature. A single-phase transformer model was specifically designed and fabricated for use as a test object for the study. The model is unique in that it allows the non-destructive interchange of healthy and distorted winding sections and, hence, reproducible and repeatable FRA measurements. FRA measurements taken at temperatures ranging from −40 °C to 40 °C were used first to describe the impact of temperature on FRA traces and then to test the ability of the machine learning algorithms to discri... [more]
436. LAPSE:2023.19359
Petroleum Reservoir Control Optimization with the Use of the Auto-Adaptive Decision Trees
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, auto-adaptive decision tree, CCS-EOR, Machine Learning, production optimization, sequential model-based algorithm configuration
The global increase in energy demand and the decreasing number of newly discovered hydrocarbon reservoirs caused by the relatively low oil price means that it is crucial to exploit existing reservoirs as efficiently as possible. Optimization of the reservoir control may increase the technical and economic efficiency of the production. In this paper, a novel algorithm that automatically determines the intelligent control maximizing the NPV of a given production process was developed. The idea is to build an auto-adaptive parameterized decision tree that replaces the arbitrarily selected limit values for the selected attributes of the decision tree with parameters. To select the optimal values of the decision tree parameters, an AI-based optimization tool called SMAC (Sequential Model-based Algorithm Configuration) was used. In each iteration, the generated control sequence is introduced into the reservoir simulator to compute the NVP, which is then utilized by the SMAC tool to vary the... [more]
437. LAPSE:2023.19309
Solar Irradiance Prediction with Machine Learning Algorithms: A Brazilian Case Study on Photovoltaic Electricity Generation
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: artificial neural network, extreme learning machine, Machine Learning, solar energy forecasting, support vector machine
Forecasting photovoltaic electricity generation is one of the key components to reducing the impacts of solar power natural variability, nurturing the penetration of renewable energy sources. Machine learning is a well-known method that relies on the principle that systems can learn from previously measured data, detecting patterns which are then used to predict future values of a target variable. These algorithms have been used successfully to predict incident solar irradiation, but the results depend on the specificities of the studied location due to the natural variability of the meteorological parameters. This paper presents an extensive comparison of the three ML algorithms most used worldwide for forecasting solar radiation, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), aiming at the best prediction of daily solar irradiance in a São Paulo context. The largest dataset in Brazil for meteorological parameters, containing measure... [more]
438. LAPSE:2023.19186
Application of Deep Learning for Quality of Service Enhancement in Internet of Things: A Review
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Information Management
Keywords: deep learning, internet of things, Machine Learning, quality of service
The role of the Internet of Things (IoT) networks and systems in our daily life cannot be underestimated. IoT is among the fastest evolving innovative technologies that are digitizing and interconnecting many domains. Most life-critical and finance-critical systems are now IoT-based. It is, therefore, paramount that the Quality of Service (QoS) of IoTs is guaranteed. Traditionally, IoTs use heuristic, game theory approaches and optimization techniques for QoS guarantee. However, these methods and approaches have challenges whenever the number of users and devices increases or when multicellular situations are considered. Moreover, IoTs receive and generate huge amounts of data that cannot be effectively handled by the traditional methods for QoS assurance, especially in extracting useful features from this data. Deep Learning (DL) approaches have been suggested as a potential candidate in solving and handling the above-mentioned challenges in order to enhance and guarantee QoS in IoT.... [more]
439. LAPSE:2023.19119
Machine Learning-Based Condition Monitoring for PV Systems: State of the Art and Future Prospects
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: condition monitoring, deep learning, Fault Detection, faults diagnosis, Machine Learning, open source datasets, photovoltaic systems
To ensure the continuity of electric power generation for photovoltaic systems, condition monitoring frameworks are subject to major enhancements. The continuous uniform delivery of electric power depends entirely on a well-designed condition maintenance program. A just-in-time task to deal with several naturally occurring faults can be correctly undertaken via the cooperation of effective detection, diagnosis, and prognostic analyses. Therefore, the present review first outlines different failure modes to which all photovoltaic systems are subjected, in addition to the essential integrated detection methods and technologies. Then, data-driven paradigms, and their contribution to solving this prediction problem, are also explored. Accordingly, this review primarily investigates the different learning architectures used (i.e., ordinary, hybrid, and ensemble) in relation to their learning frameworks (i.e., traditional and deep learning). It also discusses the extension of machine learnin... [more]
440. LAPSE:2023.19112
Edge Computing and IoT Analytics for Agile Optimization in Intelligent Transportation Systems
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Information Management
Keywords: agile optimization, edge computing, fog, intelligent transportation systems, Internet of Things, Machine Learning, smart cities
With the emergence of fog and edge computing, new possibilities arise regarding the data-driven management of citizens’ mobility in smart cities. Internet of Things (IoT) analytics refers to the use of these technologies, data, and analytical models to describe the current status of the city traffic, to predict its evolution over the coming hours, and to make decisions that increase the efficiency of the transportation system. It involves many challenges such as how to deal and manage real and huge amounts of data, and improving security, privacy, scalability, reliability, and quality of services in the cloud and vehicular network. In this paper, we review the state of the art of IoT in intelligent transportation systems (ITS), identify challenges posed by cloud, fog, and edge computing in ITS, and develop a methodology based on agile optimization algorithms for solving a dynamic ride-sharing problem (DRSP) in the context of edge/fog computing. These algorithms allow us to process, in... [more]
441. LAPSE:2023.19055
Model Predictive Control of Internal Combustion Engines: A Review and Future Directions
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, combustion control, emissions, internal combustion engines, Machine Learning, Optimization, predictive control
An internal combustion engine (ICE) is a highly nonlinear dynamic and complex engineering system whose operation is constrained by operational limits, including emissions, noise, peak in-cylinder pressure, combustion stability, and actuator constraints. To optimize today’s ICEs, seven to ten control actuators and 10−20 feedback sensors are often used, depending on the engine applications and target emission regulations. This requires extensive engine experimentation to calibrate the engine control module (ECM), which is both cumbersome and costly. Despite these efforts, optimal operation, particularly during engine transients and to meet real driving emission (RDE) targets for broad engine speed and load conditions, has still not been obtained. Methods of model predictive control (MPC) have shown promising results for real-time multi-objective optimal control of constrained multi-variable nonlinear systems, including ICEs. This paper reviews the application of MPC for ICEs and analyzes... [more]
442. LAPSE:2023.19032
Analysis of Supercritical CO2 Cycle Using Zigzag Channel Pre-Cooler: A Design Optimization Study Based on Deep Neural Network
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: deep learning neural network, Machine Learning, multiobjective genetic algorithm, Optimization, PCHEs 2, pre-cooler design 1, sCO2-BC
The role of a pre-cooler is critical to the sCO2-BC as it not only acts as a sink but also controls the conditions at the main compressor’s inlet that are vital to the cycle’s overall performance. Despite their prime importance, studies on the pre-cooler’s design are hard to find in the literature. This is partly due to the unavailability of data around the complex thermohydraulic characteristics linked with their operation close to the critical point. Henceforth, the current work deals with designing and optimizing pre-cooler by utilizing machine learning (ML), an in-house recuperator and pre-cooler design, an analysis code (RPDAC), and a cycle design point code (CDPC). Initially, data computed using 3D Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equation is used to train the machine learning (ML) model based on the deep neural network (DNN) to predict Nusselt number (Nu) and friction factor (f). The trained ML model is then used in the pre-cooler design and optimization code (RPDAC) to ge... [more]
443. LAPSE:2023.19004
Electric Vehicles Charging Management Using Machine Learning Considering Fast Charging and Vehicle-to-Grid Operation
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: decision tree, deep neural networks, distribution grid optimization, electric vehicle charging, K-nearest neighbors, long short-term memory, Machine Learning, random forest, support vector machine, vehicle to grid
Electric vehicles (EVs) have gained in popularity over the years. The charging of a high number of EVs harms the distribution system. As a result, increased transformer overloads, power losses, and voltage fluctuations may occur. Thus, management of EVs is required to address these challenges. An EV charging management system based on machine learning (ML) is utilized to route EVs to charging stations to minimize the load variance, power losses, voltage fluctuations, and charging cost whilst considering conventional charging, fast charging, and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies. A number of ML algorithms are contrasted in terms of their performances in optimization since ML has the ability to create accurate future decisions based on historical data, which are Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Deep Neural Networks (DNN). The results verify the reliability of the use of LSTM for the manage... [more]
444. LAPSE:2023.18960
Evaluation of Deep Learning-Based Neural Network Methods for Cloud Detection and Segmentation
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: generation, ground-based sky image, irradiation, load scheduling, Machine Learning, photovoltaic power, short-term forecasting, solar irradiance, solar photovoltaics, total cloud cover
This paper presents a systematic approach for accurate short-time cloud coverage prediction based on a machine learning (ML) approach. Based on a newly built omnidirectional ground-based sky camera system, local training and evaluation data sets were created. These were used to train several state-of-the-art deep neural networks for object detection and segmentation. For this purpose, the camera-generated a full hemispherical image every 30 min over two months in daylight conditions with a fish-eye lens. From this data set, a subset of images was selected for training and evaluation according to various criteria. Deep neural networks, based on the two-stage R-CNN architecture, were trained and compared with a U-net segmentation approach implemented by CloudSegNet. All chosen deep networks were then evaluated and compared according to the local situation.
445. LAPSE:2023.18906
A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Brent, clustering, COVID-19 pandemic, energy commodities, financial crises, Gasoline, Machine Learning, t-SNE, WTI
The identification of critical periods and business cycles contributes significantly to the analysis of financial markets and the macroeconomy. Financialization and cointegration place a premium on the accurate recognition of time-varying volatility in commodity markets, especially those for crude oil and refined fuels. This article seeks to identify critical periods in the trading of energy-related commodities as a step toward understanding the temporal dynamics of those markets. This article proposes a novel application of unsupervised machine learning. A suite of clustering methods, applied to conditional volatility forecasts by trading days and individual assets or asset classes, can identify critical periods in energy-related commodity markets. Unsupervised machine learning achieves this task without rules-based or subjective definitions of crises. Five clustering methods—affinity propagation, mean-shift, spectral, k-means, and hierarchical agglomerative clustering—can identify an... [more]
446. LAPSE:2023.18901
A Meta-Modeling Power Consumption Forecasting Approach Combining Client Similarity and Causality
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, data analysis, Energy, ensemble neural networks, feature engineering, Machine Learning, meta-modeling, neural networks, power forecasting
Power forecasting models offer valuable insights on the electricity consumption patterns of clients, enabling the development of advanced strategies and applications aimed at energy saving, increased energy efficiency, and smart energy pricing. The data collection process for client consumption models is not always ideal and the resulting datasets often lead to compromises in the implementation of forecasting models, as well as suboptimal performance, due to several challenges. Therefore, combinations of elements that highlight relationships between clients need to be investigated in order to achieve more accurate consumption predictions. In this study, we exploited the combined effects of client similarity and causality, and developed a power consumption forecasting model that utilizes ensembles of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Our novel approach enables the derivation of different representations of the predicted consumption based on feature sets influenced by similarity an... [more]
447. LAPSE:2023.18850
Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence and Forecasting
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: crude oil prices, exchange rates, forecasting, Machine Learning, nonlinear causality, support vector regression
The relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates have always been of interest to academics and policy analysts. There are theoretical transmission channels that justify such links; however, the empirical evidence is not clear. Most of the studies on causal relationships in this area have been restricted to a linear framework, which can omit important properties of the investigated dependencies that could be exploited for forecasting purposes. Based on the nonlinear Granger causality tests, we found strong bidirectional causal relations between crude oil prices and two currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and weaker between crude oil prices and JPY/USD. We showed that the significance of these relations has changed in recent years. We also made an attempt to find an effective strategy to forecast crude oil prices using the investigated exchange rates as regressors and vice versa. To this aim, we applied Support Vector Regression (SVR)—the machine learning method of time series... [more]
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