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Showing records 498 to 522 of 847. [First] Page: 1 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Last
Improving Detection of False Data Injection Attacks Using Machine Learning with Feature Selection and Oversampling
Ajit Kumar, Neetesh Saxena, Souhwan Jung, Bong Jun Choi
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: critical infrastructure, Data Injection Attack, Machine Learning, power system, smart grid, water treatment plant
Critical infrastructures have recently been integrated with digital controls to support intelligent decision making. Although this integration provides various benefits and improvements, it also exposes the system to new cyberattacks. In particular, the injection of false data and commands into communication is one of the most common and fatal cyberattacks in critical infrastructures. Hence, in this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of machine-learning algorithms in detecting False Data Injection Attacks (FDIAs). In particular, we focus on two of the most widely used critical infrastructures, namely power systems and water treatment plants. This study focuses on tackling two key technical issues: (1) finding the set of best features under a different combination of techniques and (2) resolving the class imbalance problem using oversampling methods. We evaluate the performance of each algorithm in terms of time complexity and detection accuracy to meet the time-critical requiremen... [more]
The Development of CO2 Instantaneous Emission Model of Full Hybrid Vehicle with the Use of Machine Learning Techniques
Maksymilian Mądziel, Artur Jaworski, Hubert Kuszewski, Paweł Woś, Tiziana Campisi, Krzysztof Lew
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: CO2 emission, electric vehicles, emission modelling, full hybrid, Machine Learning, passenger cars, vehicle emission
Road transport contributes to almost a quarter of carbon dioxide emissions in the EU. To analyze the exhaust emissions generated by vehicle flows, it is necessary to use specialized emission models, because it is infeasible to equip all vehicles on the road in the tested road sections with the Portable Emission Measurement System (PEMS). However, the currently used emission models may be inadequate to the investigated vehicle structure or may not be accurate due to the used macroscale. This state of affairs is especially related to full hybrid vehicles, since there are none of the microscale emission models that give estimated emissions values exclusively for this kind of drive system. Several automakers over the past decade have invested in hybrid vehicles with great opportunities to reduce costs through better design, learning, and economies of scale. In this work, the authors propose a methodology for creating a CO2 emission model, which takes relatively little computational time, a... [more]
Optimising High-Rise Buildings for Self-Sufficiency in Energy Consumption and Food Production Using Artificial Intelligence: Case of Europoint Complex in Rotterdam
Berk Ekici, Okan F. S. F. Turkcan, Michela Turrin, Ikbal Sevil Sariyildiz, Mehmet Fatih Tasgetiren
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, BIPV, building performance simulation, computational optimisation, energy consumption, Machine Learning, metropolis, self-sufficiency, vertical farming
The increase in global population, which negatively affects energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and arable land, necessitates designing sustainable habitation alternatives. Self-sufficient high-rise buildings, which integrate (electricity) generation and efficient usage of resources with dense habitation, can be a sustainable solution for future urbanisation. This paper focuses on transforming Europoint Towers in Rotterdam into self-sufficient buildings considering energy consumption and food production (lettuce crops) using artificial intelligence. Design parameters consist of the number of farming floors, shape, and the properties of the proposed façade skin that includes shading devices. Nine thousand samples are collected from various floor levels to predict self-sufficiency criteria using artificial neural networks (ANN). Optimisation problems with 117 decision variables are formulated using 45 ANN models that have very high prediction accuracies. 13 optimisation algorithms are use... [more]
Analysis of Residual Current Flows in Inverter Based Energy Systems Using Machine Learning Approaches
Holger Behrends, Dietmar Millinger, Werner Weihs-Sedivy, Anže Javornik, Gerold Roolfs, Stefan Geißendörfer
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: anomaly detection, Machine Learning, photovoltaic, predictive maintenance, reconstruction error, reliability, renewable energies, residual current
Faults and unintended conditions in grid-connected photovoltaic systems often cause a change of the residual current. This article describes a novel machine learning based approach to detecting anomalies in the residual current of a photovoltaic system. It can be used to detect faults or critical states at an early stage and extends conventional threshold-based detection methods. For this study, a power-hardware-in-the-loop approach was carried out, in which typical faults have been injected under ideal and realistic operating conditions. The investigation shows that faults in a photovoltaic converter system cause a unique behaviour of the residual current and fault patterns can be detected and identified by using pattern recognition and variational autoencoder machine learning algorithms. In this context, it was found that the residual current is not only affected by malfunctions of the system, but also by volatile external influences. One of the main challenges here is to separate th... [more]
Wind, Solar, and Photovoltaic Renewable Energy Systems with and without Energy Storage Optimization: A Survey of Advanced Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques
Laith Abualigah, Raed Abu Zitar, Khaled H. Almotairi, Ahmad MohdAziz Hussein, Mohamed Abd Elaziz, Mohammad Reza Nikoo, Amir H. Gandomi
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: algorithm, Artificial Intelligence (AI), deep learning, Machine Learning, Optimization, photovoltaic (PV), power generation, renewable energy systems, solar energy, storage systems, survey, wind energy
Nowadays, learning-based modeling methods are utilized to build a precise forecast model for renewable power sources. Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques have been recognized as effective methods in generating and optimizing renewable tools. The complexity of this variety of energy depends on its coverage of large sizes of data and parameters, which have to be investigated thoroughly. This paper covered the most resent and important researchers in the domain of renewable problems using the learning-based methods. Various types of Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms employed in Solar and Wind energy supplies are given. The performance of the given methods in the literature is assessed by a new taxonomy. This paper focus on conducting comprehensive state-of-the-art methods heading to performance evaluation of the given techniques and discusses vital difficulties and possibilities for extensive research. Based on the results, variations in efficiency, robustness... [more]
Synthesizing Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Outputs for Clastic Rocks Using Machine Learning Methods, Examples from North West Shelf and Perth Basin, Western Australia
Reza Rezaee
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: AdaBoost, bulk volume irreducible, clastic rocks, CMR, free fluid index, log generation, Machine Learning, nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logs, permeability, Western Australia
A nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) logging tool can provide important rock and fluid properties that are necessary for a reliable reservoir evaluation. Pore size distribution based on T2 relaxation time and resulting permeability are among those parameters that cannot be provided by conventional logging tools. For wells drilled before the 1990s and for many recent wells there is no NMR data available due to the tool availability and the logging cost, respectively. This study used a large database of combinable magnetic resonance (CMR) to assess the performance of several well-known machine learning (ML) methods to generate some of the NMR tool’s outputs for clastic rocks using typical well-logs as inputs. NMR tool’s outputs, such as clay bound water (CBW), irreducible pore fluid (known as bulk volume irreducible, BVI), producible fluid (known as the free fluid index, FFI), logarithmic mean of T2 relaxation time (T2LM), irreducible water saturation (Swirr), and permeability from Coates... [more]
Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Power System Transient Stability Assessment
Petar Sarajcev, Antonijo Kunac, Goran Petrovic, Marin Despalatovic
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, deep learning, Machine Learning, power system stability, transient stability assessment, transient stability index
The high penetration of renewable energy sources, coupled with decommissioning of conventional power plants, leads to the reduction of power system inertia. This has negative repercussions on the transient stability of power systems. The purpose of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art regarding the application of artificial intelligence to the power system transient stability assessment, with a focus on different machine, deep, and reinforcement learning techniques. The review covers data generation processes (from measurements and simulations), data processing pipelines (features engineering, splitting strategy, dimensionality reduction), model building and training (including ensembles and hyperparameter optimization techniques), deployment, and management (with monitoring for detecting bias and drift). The review focuses, in particular, on different deep learning models that show promising results on standard benchmark test cases. The final aim of the review is to point out... [more]
Partial Discharge Diagnostics: Data Cleaning and Feature Extraction
Donny Soh, Sivaneasan Bala Krishnan, Jacob Abraham, Lai Kai Xian, Tseng King Jet, Jimmy Fu Yongyi
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: condition monitoring, denoising, feature extraction, Machine Learning, partial discharge, PRPD
Detection of partial discharge (PD) in switchgears requires extensive data collection and time-consuming analyses. Data from real live operational environments pose great challenges in the development of robust and efficient detection algorithms due to overlapping PDs and the strong presence of random white noise. This paper presents a novel approach using clustering for data cleaning and feature extraction of phase-resolved partial discharge (PRPD) plots derived from live operational data. A total of 452 PRPD 2D plots collected from distribution substations over a six-month period were used to test the proposed technique. The output of the clustering technique is evaluated on different types of machine learning classification techniques and the accuracy is compared using balanced accuracy score. The proposed technique extends the measurement abilities of a portable PD measurement tool for diagnostics of switchgear condition, helping utilities to quickly detect potential PD activities... [more]
eSCIFI: An Energy Saving Mechanism for WLANs Based on Machine Learning
Guilherme Henrique Apostolo, Flavia Bernardini, Luiz C. Schara Magalhães, Débora C. Muchaluat-Saade
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Machine Learning, RoD strategy mechanisms, smart buildings, Wi-Fi networks, WLAN energy saving mechanism
As wireless local area networks grow in size to provide access to users, power consumption becomes an important issue. Power savings in a large-scale Wi-Fi network, with low impact to user service, is undoubtedly desired. In this work, we propose and evaluate the eSCIFI energy saving mechanism for Wireless Local Area Networks (WLANs). eSCIFI is an energy saving mechanism that uses machine learning algorithms as occupancy demand estimators. The eSCIFI mechanism is designed to cope with a broader range of WLANs, which includes Wi-Fi networks such as the Fluminense Federal University (UFF) SCIFI network. The eSCIFI can cope with WLANs that cannot acquire data in a real time manner and/or possess a limited CPU power. The eSCIFI design also includes two clustering algorithms, named cSCIFI and cSCIFI+, that help to guarantee the network’s coverage. eSCIFI uses those network clusters and machine learning predictions as input features to an energy state decision algorithm that then decides whi... [more]
Design of a Condition Monitoring System for Wind Turbines
Jinje Park, Changhyun Kim, Minh-Chau Dinh, Minwon Park
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial neural network, correlation analysis, Machine Learning, operations and maintenance, wind turbine
Renewable energy is being adopted worldwide, and the proportion of offshore wind turbines is increasing. Offshore wind turbines operate in harsh weather conditions, resulting in various failures and high maintenance costs. In this paper, a condition diagnosis model for condition monitoring of an offshore wind turbine has been developed. The generator, main bearing, pitch system, and yaw system were selected as components subject to the condition monitoring by considering the failure rate and downtime of the wind turbine. The condition diagnosis model works by comparing real-time and predictive operating data of the wind turbine, and about four years of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) data from a 2 MW wind turbine was used to develop the model. A deep neural network and an artificial neural network were used as machine learning to predict the operational data in the condition diagnosis model, and a confusion matrix was used to measure the accuracy of the failure determi... [more]
Diagnosis for Slight Bearing Fault in Induction Motor Based on Combination of Selective Features and Machine Learning
Hisahide Nakamura, Yukio Mizuno
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: bearing fault, diagnosis, Machine Learning, motor current signature analysis (MCSA)
Induction motors are widely used in industry and are essential to industrial processes. The faults in motors lead to high repair costs and cause financial losses resulting from unexpected downtime. Early detection of faults in induction motors has become necessary and critical in reducing costs. Most motor faults are caused by bearing failure. Machine learning-based diagnostic methods are proposed in this study. These methods use effective features. First, load currents of healthy and faulty motors are measured while the rotating speed is changing continuously. Second, experiments revealed the relationship between the magnitude of the amplitude of specific signals and the rotating speed, and the rotating speed is treated as a new feature. Third, machine learning-based diagnoses are conducted. Finally, the effectiveness of machine learning-based diagnostic methods is verified using experimental data.
Accelerating Energy-Economic Simulation Models via Machine Learning-Based Emulation and Time Series Aggregation
Alexander J. Bogensperger, Yann Fabel, Joachim Ferstl
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, distributed energy resources, electricity markets, emulation-model, energy communities, Machine Learning, meta-model, sampling, surrogate-model, TSA
Energy-economic simulation models with high levels of detail, high time resolutions, or large populations (e.g., distribution networks, households, electric vehicles, energy communities) are often limited due to their computational complexity. This paper introduces a novel methodology, combining cluster-based time series aggregation and sampling methods, to efficiently emulate simulation models using machine learning and significantly reduce both simulation and training time. Machine learning-based emulation models require sufficient and high-quality data to generalize the dataset. Since simulations are computationally complex, their maximum number is limited. Sampling methods come into play when selecting the best parameters for a limited number of simulations ex ante. This paper introduces and compares multiple sampling methods on three energy-economic datasets and shows their advantage over a simple random sampling for small sample-sizes. The results show that a k-means cluster samp... [more]
Machine Learning to Rate and Predict the Efficiency of Waterflooding for Oil Production
Ivan Makhotin, Denis Orlov, Dmitry Koroteev
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: data-driven, Machine Learning, secondary oil recovery, waterflooding effect
Waterflooding is a widely used secondary oil recovery technique. The oil and gas industry uses a complex reservoir numerical simulation and reservoir engineering analysis to forecast production curves from waterflooding projects. The application of such standard methods at the stage of assessing the potential of a huge number of projects could be computationally inefficient and requires a lot of effort. This paper demonstrates the applicability of machine learning to rate the outcome of waterflooding applied to an oil reservoir. We also explore the relationship of project evaluations by operators at the final stages with several performance metrics for forecasting. Real data about several thousand waterflooding projects in Texas are used in the current study. We compare the ML models rankings of the waterflooding efficiency and the expert rankings. Linear regression models along with neural networks and gradient boosting on decision threes are considered. We show that machine learning... [more]
A Convolutional Neural Network Approach for Estimation of Li-Ion Battery State of Health from Charge Profiles
Ephrem Chemali, Phillip J. Kollmeyer, Matthias Preindl, Youssef Fahmy, Ali Emadi
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: battery management systems, convolutional neural networks, deep learning, Li-ion batteries, Machine Learning, state-of-health estimation
Intelligent and pragmatic state-of-health (SOH) estimation is critical for the safe and reliable operation of Li-ion batteries, which recently have become ubiquitous for applications such as electrified vehicles, smart grids, smartphones, as well as manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. This paper introduces a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based framework for directly estimating SOH from voltage, current, and temperature measured while the battery is charging. The CNN is trained with data from as many as 28 cells, which were aged at two temperatures using randomized usage profiles. CNNs with between 1 and 6 layers and between 32 and 256 neurons were investigated, and the training data was augmented with noise and error as well to improve accuracy. Importantly, the algorithm was validated for partial charges, as would be common for many applications. Full charges starting between 0 and 95% SOC as well as for multiple ranges ending at less than 100% SOC were tested. The proposed CNN... [more]
Machine Learning Schemes for Anomaly Detection in Solar Power Plants
Mariam Ibrahim, Ahmad Alsheikh, Feras M. Awaysheh, Mohammad Dahman Alshehri
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: anomaly detection, correlation, Machine Learning, time series analysis
The rapid industrial growth in solar energy is gaining increasing interest in renewable power from smart grids and plants. Anomaly detection in photovoltaic (PV) systems is a demanding task. In this sense, it is vital to utilize the latest updates in machine learning technology to accurately and timely disclose different system anomalies. This paper addresses this issue by evaluating the performance of different machine learning schemes and applying them to detect anomalies on photovoltaic components. The following schemes are evaluated: AutoEncoder Long Short-Term Memory (AE-LSTM), Facebook-Prophet, and Isolation Forest. These models can identify the PV system’s healthy and abnormal actual behaviors. Our results provide clear insights to make an informed decision, especially with experimental trade-offs for such a complex solution space.
Improving Subsurface Characterisation with ‘Big Data’ Mining and Machine Learning
Rachel E. Brackenridge, Vasily Demyanov, Oleg Vashutin, Ruslan Nigmatullin
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Big Data, hydrocarbon exploration, Machine Learning, multivariant analysis, reservoir, subsurface characterisation, supervised learning, unsupervised learning
Large databases of legacy hydrocarbon reservoir and well data provide an opportunity to use modern data mining techniques to improve our understanding of the subsurface in the presence of uncertainty and improve predictability of reservoir properties. A data mining approach provides a way to screen dependencies in reservoir and fluid data and enable subsurface specialists to estimate absent properties in partial or incomplete datasets. This allows for uncertainty to be managed and reduced. An improvement in reservoir characterisation using machine learning results from the capacity of machine learning methods to detect and model hidden dependencies in large multivariate datasets with noisy and missing data. This study presents a workflow applied to a large basin-scale reservoir characterization database. The study aims to understand the dependencies between reservoir attributes in order to allow for predictions to be made to improve the data coverage. The machine learning workflow comp... [more]
Modeling Subsurface Performance of a Geothermal Reservoir Using Machine Learning
Dmitry Duplyakin, Koenraad F. Beckers, Drew L. Siler, Michael J. Martin, Henry E. Johnston
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy predictions, geothermal reservoir management, geothermal reservoir modeling, Machine Learning
Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells—increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells—and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. In this study, we describe a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable such a strategy. Our computational approach allows us, first, to translate sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy, and second, to find optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) al... [more]
A Shallow Neural Network Approach for the Short-Term Forecast of Hourly Energy Consumption
Andrea Manno, Emanuele Martelli, Edoardo Amaldi
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: 24 h ahead energy forecast, ARIMA, Artificial Neural Networks, long short-term memory networks, Machine Learning, support vector machines
The forecasts of electricity and heating demands are key inputs for the efficient design and operation of energy systems serving urban districts, buildings, and households. Their accuracy may have a considerable effect on the selection of the optimization approach and on the solution quality. In this work, we describe a supervised learning approach based on shallow Artificial Neural Networks to develop an accurate model for predicting the daily hourly energy consumption of an energy district 24 h ahead. Predictive models are generated for each one of the two considered energy types, namely electricity and heating. Single-layer feedforward neural networks are trained with the efficient and robust decomposition algorithm DEC proposed by Grippo et al. on a data set of historical data, including, among others, carefully selected information related to the hourly energy consumption of the energy district and the hourly weather data of the region where the district is located. Three differen... [more]
A Time Series Forecasting of Global Horizontal Irradiance on Geographical Data of Najran Saudi Arabia
Hisham A. Alghamdi
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: forecasting, GHI, GSR, Machine Learning, solar energy
Environment-friendly and renewable energy resources are the need of each developed and undeveloped country. Solar energy is one of them, thus accurate forecasting of it can be useful for electricity supply companies. This research focuses on analyzing the daily global solar radiation (GSR) data of Najran province located in Saudi Arabia and proposed a model for the prediction of global horizontal irradiance (GHI). The weather data is collected from Najran University. After inspecting the data, I we found the dependent and independent variables for calculating the GHI. A dataset model has been trained by creating tensor of variables belonging to air, wind, peak wind, relative humidity, and barometric pressure. Furthermore, six machine learning algorithms convolutional neural networks (CNN), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machines (SVM), logistic regression (LR), random forest classifier (RFC), and support vector classifier (SVC) techniques are used on dataset model to predict... [more]
Collection and Utilization of Indoor Environmental Quality Information Using Affordable Image Sensing Technology
Joosang Lee, Deok-Oh Woo, Jihoon Jang, Lars Junghans, Seung-Bok Leigh
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: affordable technology, indoor environmental quality, Internet of Things, Machine Learning, operative temperature, ventilation control
Incorporating Internet of Things (IoT) technology into the operation of buildings is expected to generate immense synergy, thereby saving energy and improving occupant comfort by overcoming the limitations of the existing system. Preventing operations in the absence of occupants can save energy, and the occupants’ preferred operating temperature should be used as the control set-point rather than the nominal temperature. In this study, IoT technology and image sensors are used to rapidly detect indoor environment changes, and a method is proposed to utilize air quality and thermal comfort as the control set-points. A real-time ventilation control algorithm is proposed based on the CO2 concentration calculated according to the number of occupants. To check the thermal comfort level, the real-time operating temperature estimated from the surface temperature data of the infrared array sensor is reflected in the comfort zone defined by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Ai... [more]
Providing Convenient Indoor Thermal Comfort in Real-Time Based on Energy-Efficiency IoT Network
Bouziane Brik, Moez Esseghir, Leila Merghem-Boulahia, Ahmed Hentati
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Energy Efficiency, Genetic Algorithm, indoor thermal comfort monitoring, IoT network, Machine Learning
Monitoring the thermal comfort of building occupants is crucial for ensuring sustainable and efficient energy consumption in residential buildings. It enables not only remote real-time detection of situations, but also a timely reaction to reduce the damage made by harmful situations in targeted buildings. In this paper, we first design a new Internet of Things (IoT) architecture in order to provide remote availability of both indoor and outdoor conditions, with respect to the limited energy of IoT devices. We then build a multi-output prediction model of indoor parameters using a random forest learning algorithm, and based on a longitudinal real dataset of one year. Our prediction model considers outdoor conditions to predict the indoor ones. Hence, it helps to detect discomfort situations in real-time when comparing predicted variables to real ones. Furthermore, when detecting an indoor thermal discomfort, we provide a new genetic-based algorithm to find the most suitable values of i... [more]
Machine Learning Approach for Maximizing Thermoelectric Properties of BiCuSeO and Discovering New Doping Element
Nuttawat Parse, Chakrit Pongkitivanichkul, Supree Pinitsoontorn
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: BiCuSeO, Machine Learning, thermoelectric materials, thermoelectric properties
Machine learning (ML) has increasingly received interest as a new approach to accelerating development in materials science. It has been applied to thermoelectric materials research for discovering new materials and designing experiments. Generally, the amount of data in thermoelectric materials research, especially experimental data, is very small leading to an undesirable ML model. In this work, the ML model for predicting ZT of the doped BiCuSeO was implemented. The method to improve the model was presented step-by-step. This included normalizing the experimental ZT of the doped BiCuSeO with the pristine BiCuSeO, selecting data for the BiCuSeO doped at Bi-site only, and limiting important features for the model construction. The modified model showed significant improvement, with the R2 of 0.93, compared to the original model (R2 of 0.57). The model was validated and used to predict the ZT of the unknown doped BiCuSeO compounds. The predicted result was logically justified based on... [more]
Short- and Very Short-Term Firm-Level Load Forecasting for Warehouses: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models
Andrea Maria N. C. Ribeiro, Pedro Rafael X. do Carmo, Patricia Takako Endo, Pierangelo Rosati, Theo Lynn
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ARIMA, deep learning, energy consumption, Extreme Gradient Boosting, GRU, LSTM, Machine Learning, Random Forest, RNN, short-term load forecasting, STLF, SVR, time series prediction, very short-term load forecasting, VSTLF
Commercial buildings are a significant consumer of energy worldwide. Logistics facilities, and specifically warehouses, are a common building type which remain under-researched in the demand-side energy forecasting literature. Warehouses have an idiosyncratic profile when compared to other commercial and industrial buildings with a significant reliance on a small number of energy systems. As such, warehouse owners and operators are increasingly entering energy performance contracts with energy service companies (ESCOs) to minimise environmental impact, reduce costs, and improve competitiveness. ESCOs and warehouse owners and operators require accurate forecasts of their energy consumption so that precautionary and mitigation measures can be taken. This paper explores the performance of three machine learning models (Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest, and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost)), three deep learning models (Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Long Short-Term Memo... [more]
Error Compensation Enhanced Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting
Dimitrios Kontogiannis, Dimitrios Bargiotas, Aspassia Daskalopulu, Athanasios Ioannis Arvanitidis, Lefteri H. Tsoukalas
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, deep learning, electricity price forecasting, Energy, error estimation, Machine Learning, neural networks
The evolution of electricity markets has led to increasingly complex energy trading dynamics and the integration of renewable energy sources as well as the influence of several external market factors contributed towards price volatility. Therefore, day-ahead electricity price forecasting models, typically using some kind of neural network, play a crucial role in the optimal behavior of market agents. The most prominent models and benchmarks rely on improving the accuracy of predictions and the time for convergence by some sort of a priori processing of the dataset that is used for the training of the neural network, such as hyperparameter tuning and feature selection techniques. What has been overlooked so far is the possible benefit of a posteriori processing, which would consider the effects of parameters that could refine the predictions once they have been made. Such a parameter is the estimation of the residual training error. In this study, we investigate the effect of residual... [more]
Support Vector Quantile Regression for the Post-Processing of Meso-Scale Ensemble Prediction System Data in the Kanto Region: Solar Power Forecast Reducing Overestimation
Takahiro Takamatsu, Hideaki Ohtake, Takashi Oozeki
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ensemble prediction system, Machine Learning, numerical weather prediction, quantile regression, solar power forecast, support vector regression
Although the recent development of solar power forecasting through machine learning approaches, such as the machine learning models based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, has been remarkable, their extreme error requires an increase in the amount of reserve capacity procurement used for the power system safety. Hence, a reduction of the serious overestimation is necessary for efficient grid operation. However, despite the importance of the above issue, few studies have focused on the model design, suppressing serious errors, to the best of the authors’ knowledge. This study investigates a prediction model that can reduce the huge overestimation of the solar irradiance, which poses a risk to the power system. The specific approaches used are as follows: the employment of Support Vector Quantile Regression (SVQR), the utilization of Meso-scale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS, Meso-scale EPS for the regions of Japan) data, which is based on the forecasts from Meso-scale Model... [more]
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