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Records Added in 2023
Records added in 2023
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14676. LAPSE:2023.22234
Analysis and Application of the Direct Flux Control Sensorless Technique to Low-Power PMSMs
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: direct flux control, inductance matrix, motor control, motor drive, PMSM, sensorless technique, synchronous motor
In the field of sensorless control of permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSMs), different techniques based on machine anisotropies have been studied and implemented successfully. Nevertheless, most proposed approaches extract the rotor position information from the measured machine currents, that, when applied to low-power machines, might require high-bandwidth current sensors. An interesting alternative is given by sensorless techniques that exploit the star-point voltage of PMSMs, such as the direct flux control technique. This work aims at analyzing the conditions of applicability of such technique by considering a more thorough description of the machine inductance matrix. After a comprehensive mathematical description of the technique and characterization of the machine anisotropy information that is extracted from the star-point voltage, simulation as well as experimental results conducted on a test machine are presented and discussed in order to validate the proposed theory.
14677. LAPSE:2023.22233
Study on Loose-Coupling Methods for Aircraft Thermal Anti-Icing System
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: aircraft ice accretion, conjugate heat transfer, heat and mass transfer, loose-coupling method, thermal anti-icing system
To simulate aircraft thermal anti-icing systems and solve the conjugate heat transfer of air-droplet flow and solid skin, the heat and mass transfer model of the runback water on the anti-icing surface was combined with the heat conduction equation of the skin by loosely coupled methods. According to the boundary conditions used for the runback water conservation equations, two loose-coupling methods for the heat exchange between the runback water and the solid skin were developed based on surface heat flow and surface temperature, respectively. The anti-icing and ice accretion results of a NACA 0012 electro-thermal anti-icing system were obtained by the two loose-coupling methods. The heat flow-based method directly solves the thermodynamic model of the runback water without any extra assumptions, but the convergence rate is relatively slow. On the other hand, the temperature-based method achieves higher calculation speed, but the freezing point is extended to an artificial temperatur... [more]
14678. LAPSE:2023.22232
Estimating the Impact of Arc Furnaces on the Quality of Power in Supply Systems
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: arc furnace, model research, unbalance, voltage fluctuations
Arc furnaces, due to their high unit power and load nature, belong to the receivers affecting the power quality. A dynamically changing electric arc is the main source of disturbances generated by arc devices. This current article presents the results of model tests of disturbances caused by arc furnaces. It also presents the attempts to estimate the power supply conditions for arc furnaces, so that they do not generate unacceptable disturbances to the power system. Various models of the electric arc are proposed. The values of the elements making up the furnace supply system were based on actual parameters. In these networks, measurements of electricity quality indicators were carried out, which allowed us to refer to the obtained results of model tests with the real values. Accordingly, to the real conditions, the values of the short-circuit power of the network and the power of furnace transformers were also adopted in the tests.
14679. LAPSE:2023.22231
Sustainable Wind Power Plant Modernization
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: efficiency, modernization, recycling, sustainable development, wind power plant
The production of energy in wind power plants is regarded as ecologically clean because there being no direct emissions of harmful substances during the conversion of wind energy into electricity. The production and operation of wind power plant components make use of the significant potential of materials such as steel, plastics, concrete, oils, and greases. Energy is also used, which is a source of potential negative environmental impacts. Servicing a wind farm power plant during its operational years, which lasts most often 25 years, followed by its disassembly, involves energy expenditures as well as the recovery of post-construction material potential. There is little research in the world literature on models and methodologies addressing analyses of the environmental and energy aspects of wind turbine modernization, whether in reference to turbines within their respective lifecycles or to those which have already completed them. The paper presents an attempt to solve the problems... [more]
14680. LAPSE:2023.22230
A Phase-Shift-Modulated LLC-Resonant Micro-Inverter Based on Fixed Frequency Predictive-MPPT
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: fixed frequency, LLC resonant converter, micro-inverter, MPPT, phase-shift control
Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) control is an essential part of every photovoltaic (PV) system, in order to overcome any change in ambient environmental conditions and ensure operation at maximum power.. Recently, micro-inverters have gained a lot of attention due to their ability to track the true MPP for each individual PV module, which is considered a powerful solution to overcome the partial shading and power mismatch problems which exist in series-connected panels. Although the LLC resonant converter has high efficiency and high boosting ability, traditional MPPT techniques based on Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) do not work well with it. In this paper, a fixed frequency predictive MPPT technique is presented for the LLC resonant converter to be used as the first-stage in a PV micro-inverter. Using predictive control enhances the tracking efficiency and reduces the steady state oscillation. Operation with fixed switching frequency for the LLC resonant converter improves the tota... [more]
14681. LAPSE:2023.22229
Second-Order Approximation of the Seismic Reflection Coefficient in Thin Interbeds
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: amplitude variation with incident angle (AVA), reflection coefficient, second-order approximation, seismic modeling, thin bed, thin interbed
As most of the lithostratigraphic reservoirs in China are thin interbeds, the study of seismic responses in thin interbeds is an integral part of lithologic reservoir exploration. However, at present, the research on seismic reflection coefficients of thin interbeds in exploration seismology is still weak, which leads to the lack of theoretical basis for the subsequent interpretation of amplitude variation with offset (AVO) related to thin interbed. To solve this problem, in this paper, we proposed second-order approximate equations of the seismic reflection coefficients in thin-bed and thin-interbed layers. Under the assumption of a small impedance contrast in layered media, we made a second-order approximation with a more evident physical meaning to the reflection coefficient calculation method proposed by Kennett. Then, based on the test of the single thin-layer theoretical model, it was confirmed that the second-order approximation equation of the PP-wave (reflected compressional w... [more]
14682. LAPSE:2023.22228
Experimental Realization of Heavily p-doped Half-Heusler CoVSn Compound
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: CoVSn, half-Heusler, heterogeneous structure, thermoelectric
Hypothetical half-Heusler (HH) ternary alloy of CoVSn has already been computationally investigated for possible spintronics and thermoelectric applications. We report the experimental realization of this compound and the characterizations of its thermoelectric properties. The material was synthesized by a solid-state reaction of the stoichiometric amounts of the elements via powder metallurgy (30 h mechanical milling and annealing at 900 °C for 20 h) and spark plasma sintering (SPS). The temperature-dependent ternary thermodynamic phase diagram of Co-V-Sn was further calculated. The phase diagram and detailed analysis of the synthesized material revealed the formation of the non-stoichiometry HH CoVSn, mixed with the binary intermetallic phases of SnV3, Co2Sn, and Co3V. The combination of X-ray diffraction, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and thermoelectric transport properties confirmed the formation of a multi-phase compound. The analysis revealed the predicted thermoelectric... [more]
14683. LAPSE:2023.22227
Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems with Single-Axis Sun Tracker: Case Study for Central Vietnam
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: grid-connected, photovoltaic system, sun tracker
Recently, the demand for small grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) systems has been rapidly increasing; this is due to the reduction in the costs of grid-connected storage systems as compared to those of the stand-alone ones. Notably, the performance of the solar tracking system is not only depending on the types but also the region that they are set up and used. To understand how solar tracking systems work globally, we need to know their performance in each country and even the different parts of a country. In this study, two grid-connected PV systems with 250 W solar modules were used to investigate the efficient improvement of a single-axis sun tracking system in Central Vietnam. First, a mechanical tracking device with a linear actuator and a controller was designed and then its performance was comprehensively investigated with a grid-connected PV system. In addition to evaluating the energy gain by the tracking system, this study also considered the energy consumption of the linear... [more]
14684. LAPSE:2023.22226
Underfrequency Load Shedding: An Innovative Algorithm Based on Fuzzy Logic
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: adaptive load shedding, fuzzy logic, islanding operation, underfrequency load shedding
In contemporary power systems, the load shedding schemes are typically based on disconnecting a pre-specified amount of load after the frequency drops below a predetermined value. The actual conditions at the time of disturbance may largely differ from the assumptions, which can lead to non-optimal or ineffective operation of the load shedding scheme. For many years, increasing the effectiveness of the underfrequency load shedding (UFLS) schemes has been the subject of research around the world. Unfortunately, the proposed solutions often require costly technical resources and/or large amounts of real-time data monitoring. This paper puts forth an UFLS scheme characterized by increased effectiveness in the case of large disturbances and reduced disconnected power in the case of small and medium disturbances compared to the conventional load-shedding solutions. These advantages are achieved by replacing time-consuming consecutive load dropping with the simultaneous load dropping mechani... [more]
14685. LAPSE:2023.22225
An Accurate Discrete Current Controller for High-Speed PMSMs/Gs in Flywheel Applications
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: current loop decoupling, delay compensation, Discrete current controller, FESS, High-speed PMSM/G
High-speed Permanent-Magnet Synchronous Motors/Generators (PMSMs/Gs) in a Flywheel Energy Storage System (FESS) are faced with high cross-coupling voltages and low switching-to-fundamental frequency ratios. High cross-coupling voltages between d-q axis current loops lead to transient current errors, which is more serious at lower switching-to-fundamental-frequency ratios. If the delays are not properly considered during the current controller design in a digital control system, the low switching-to-fundamental-frequency ratios may result in oscillatory or unstable responses. In this study, an accurate discrete current controller for high-speed PMSMs/Gs is proposed based on an accurate discrete model that takes the phase and magnitude errors generated during the sampling period into consideration, and an Extended State Observer (ESO) is applied to estimate and compensate the back EMF error. The cross-coupling problem is well settled, and the current loop dynamic at lower switching-to-fu... [more]
14686. LAPSE:2023.22224
Optimal Energy Management in a Standalone Microgrid, with Photovoltaic Generation, Short-Term Storage, and Hydrogen Production
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: deferrable loads, demand side management, Fuel Cells, Hydrogen, Model Predictive Control, solar photovoltaic energy, standalone renewable energy systems
This paper addresses the energy management of a standalone renewable energy system. The system is configured as a microgrid, including photovoltaic generation, a lead-acid battery as a short term energy storage system, hydrogen production, and several loads. In this microgrid, an energy management strategy has been incorporated that pursues several objectives. On the one hand, it aims to minimize the amount of energy cycled in the battery, in order to reduce the associated losses and battery size. On the other hand, it seeks to take advantage of the long-term surplus energy, producing hydrogen and extracting it from the system, to be used in a fuel cell hybrid electric vehicle. A crucial factor in this approach is to accommodate the energy consumption to the energy demand and to achieve this, a model predictive control (MPC) scheme is proposed. In this context, proper models for solar estimation, hydrogen production, and battery energy storage will be presented. Moreover, the controlle... [more]
14687. LAPSE:2023.22223
Long-term Static and Operational Reserves Assessment Considering Operating and Market Agreements Representation to Multi-Area Systems
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: multi-area operating reserve assessment, operating reserve assessment, static reserve assessment
This paper exploits different computational modelling to assess long-term static and operating reserves to multi-area systems. To deal with intermittent renewable generation and other types of technologies, this paper is proposing a flexible simulation model able to capture not only technological innovation of power system components and their electric and energetic behaviors, but also operational procedures and market agreements representations to yield planning insights about the performance of the multi-area systems. Results based on two modified test systems with a variate of generation technologies and interconnections are used to show the potential of the simulation model.
14688. LAPSE:2023.22222
Investigation of the Effects of Plasma Discharges on Methane Decomposition for Combustion Enhancement of a Lean Flame
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: combustion, flame stability, lean flame, plasma actuator
The present work focuses on the impact of dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma actuators (PAs) on non-premixed lifted flame stabilization in a methane CH4-air Bunsen burner. Two coaxial DBD-PA configurations are considered. They are composed of a copper corona, installed on the outer surface of a quartz tube and powered with a high voltage sinusoidal signal, and a grounded needle installed along the burner axis. The two configurations differ in the standoff distance value, which indicates the positioning of the high frequency/high voltage (HV) electrode’s upper edge with respect to the needle tip. Experimental results highlight that flame reattachment is obtained at a lower dissipated power when using a negative standoff distance (i.e., placing the needle upstream with respect to the corona). At 11 kV peak-to-peak voltage and 20 kHz frequency, plasma actuation allowed for reattaching the flame with a very low dissipated power (of about 0.05 W). Numerical simulations of the electro... [more]
14689. LAPSE:2023.22221
Thermogravimetric Kinetic Study of Automobile Shredder Residue (ASR) Pyrolysis
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: ASR (Automobile Shredder Residue), thermogravimetiric analysis, isoconversional method, thermal kinetic analysis
The separated and sorted combustibles from automobile shredder residue (ASR) can be pyrolyzed and used as a heat source or liquefied to produce materials with added value. In this study, the thermal decomposition properties of ASR were determined and thermal kinetic studies were performed. Four types of raw materials were separated from ASR and mixed at a constant ratio: 38.5 wt.% of plastic; 31.6 wt.% of fiber; 17.3 wt.% of sponge; and 12.3 wt.% of rubber. Pyrolysis kinetics analysis was carried out using the Thermogravimetric analysis-derivative thermogravimetry (TGA-DTG) technique and activation energy were calculated by differential and integral isoconversional model methods, Flynn-Wall-Ozawa (FWO), Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose (KAS), and Friedman. Thermogravimetric analysis was performed under nitrogen with four temperature rate conditions from room temperature to 800 °C. In the thermal degradation profile, peaks representing mass loss rates were observed for each sample at different... [more]
14690. LAPSE:2023.22220
3D Mapping of the Sprinkler Activation Time
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, detection, fire, performance-based design, smoke management, suppression
Sprinkler activation is one of the key events defining the course of a compartment fire. The time when activation occurs is commonly used in the determination of the design fire scenario, which is the cornerstone of the design of building fire safety features. A well-known model of sprinkler activation (response time index (RTI) model) was introduced into the numerical scheme of the ANSYS Fluent computational fluid dynamics (CFD) package. The novel way in which the model is used is the calculation of the time for sprinkler activation within each discrete cell of the domain. The proposed novel approach was used in a case-study to assess the effects of comfort mode natural ventilation on a sprinkler’s activation pattern. It was found that hinged vents in the comfort mode had a significant effect on sprinkler activation, both in terms of delaying it as well as limiting the total number of cells in which the sprinkler would have activated. In some scenarios with a hinged vent, no activatio... [more]
14691. LAPSE:2023.22219
Smart Electrochromic Windows to Enhance Building Energy Efficiency and Visual Comfort
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: building integrated electrochromic, control strategies, device architectures, energy saving, visual comfort
Electrochromic systems for smart windows make it possible to enhance energy efficiency in the construction sector, in both residential and tertiary buildings. The dynamic modulation of the spectral properties of a glazing, within the visible and infrared ranges of wavelengths, allows one to adapt the thermal and optical behavior of a glazing to the everchanging conditions of the environment in which the building is located. This allows appropriate control of the penetration of solar radiation within the building. The consequent advantages are manifold and are still being explored in the scientific literature. On the one hand, the reduction in energy consumption for summer air conditioning (and artificial lighting, too) becomes significant, especially in "cooling dominated" climates, reaching high percentages of saving, compared to common transparent windows; on the other hand, the continuous adaptation of the optical properties of the glass to the changing external conditions makes it... [more]
14692. LAPSE:2023.22218
Study of a Thin Film Aluminum-Air Battery
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Al-air battery, MnO2, paper based thin film battery
A thin film aluminum-air battery has been constructed using a commercial grade Al-6061 plate as anode electrode, an air-breathing carbon cloth carrying an electrocatalyst as cathode electrode, and a thin porous paper soaked with aqueous KOH as electrolyte. This type of battery demonstrates a promising behavior under ambient conditions of 20 °C temperature and around 40% humidity. It presents good electric characteristics when plain nanoparticulate carbon (carbon black) is used as electrocatalyst but it is highly improved when MnO2 particles are mixed with carbon black. Thus, the open-circuit voltage was 1.35 V, the short-circuit current density 50 mA cm−2, and the maximum power density 20 mW cm−2 in the absence of MnO2 and increased to 1.45 V, 60 mA cm−2, and 28 mW cm−2, respectively, in the presence of MnO2. The corresponding maximum energy yield during battery discharge was 4.9 mWh cm−2 in the absence of MnO2 and increased to 5.5 mWh cm−2 in the presence of MnO2. In the second case,... [more]
14693. LAPSE:2023.22217
iABACUS: A Wi-Fi-Based Automatic Bus Passenger Counting System
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: automatic passenger counting, cloud computing, IEEE 802.11 standards, mobile devices, smart phones
Since the early stages of the Internet-of-Things (IoT), one of the application scenarios that have been affected the most by this new paradigm is mobility. Smart Cities have greatly benefited from the awareness of some people’s habits to develop efficient mobility services. In particular, knowing how people use public transportation services and move throughout urban infrastructure is crucial in several areas, among which the most prominent are tourism and transportation. Indeed, especially for Public Transportation Companies (PTCs), long- and short-term planning of the transit network requires having a thorough knowledge of the flows of passengers in and out vehicles. Thanks to the ubiquitous presence of Internet connections, this knowledge can be easily enabled by sensors deployed on board of public transport vehicles. In this paper, a Wi-Fi-based Automatic Bus pAssenger CoUnting System, named iABACUS, is presented. The objective of iABACUS is to observe and analyze urban mobility by... [more]
14694. LAPSE:2023.22216
Characteristic Properties of Alternative Biomass Fuels
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: alternative biofuels, biomass analysis, emissions
Biomass is one of the most promising renewable energy sources because it enables energy accumulation and controlled production. With this, however, the demand for biofuels grows and thus there is an effort to expand their portfolio. Nevertheless, to use a broader range of biofuels, it is necessary to know their fuel properties, such as coarse and elemental analysis, or lower heating value. This paper presents the results of testing the fuel properties of several new, potentially usable biofuels, such as quinoa, camelina, crambe, and safflower, which are compared with some traditional biofuels (wood, straw, sorrel, hay). Moreover, the results of the determination of water content, ash, and volatile combustible content of these fuels are included, along with the results of the elemental analysis and the determination of higher and lower heating values. Based on these properties, it is possible to implement designs of combustion plants of different outputs for these fuels.
14695. LAPSE:2023.22215
A Techno-Economic Centric Integrated Decision-Making Planning Approach for Optimal Assets Placement in Meshed Distribution Network Across the Load Growth
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: distributed generation, distributed static compensator, distribution network, distribution network planning, losses minimizations, mesh distribution network, multi-criteria decision making, unanimous decision making, voltage stability assessment index
The modern distribution networks under the smart grid paradigm have been considered both interconnected and reliable. In grid modernization concepts, the optimal asset optimization across a certain planning horizon is of core importance. Modern planning problems are more inclined towards a feasible solution amongst conflicting criteria. In this paper, an integrated decision-making planning (IDMP) approach is proposed. The proposed methodology includes voltage stability assessment indices linked with loss minimization condition-based approach, and is integrated with different multi-criteria decision-making methodologies (MCDM), followed by unanimous decision making (UDM). The proposed IDMP approach aims at optimal assets sitting and sizing in a meshed distribution network to find a trade-off solution with various asset types across normal and load growth horizons. An initial evaluation is carried out with assets such as distributed generation (DG), photovoltaic (PV)-based renewable DG,... [more]
14696. LAPSE:2023.22214
Energy-Efficient 3D Navigation of a Solar-Powered UAV for Secure Communication in the Presence of Eavesdroppers and No-Fly Zones
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: aerospace energy systems, communication security, eavesdropping, electric vehicles, Energy Efficiency, navigation, path planning, solar power, solar-powered UAVs
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) have been regarded as a promising means to reshape future wireless communication systems. In this paper, we consider how to plan the trajectory of a solar-powered UAV under a cloudy condition to secure the communication between the UAV and a target ground node against multiple eavesdroppers. We propose a new 3D UAV trajectory optimization model by taking into account the UAV energy consumption, solar power harvesting, eavesdropping and no-fly zone avoidance. A Rapidly-exploring Random Tree (RRT) method is developed to construct the UAV trajectory. Computer simulations and comparisons with a baseline method demonstrate that the proposed method is able to produce trajectories to ensure the valid wireless communication link with the ground node and prevent eavesdropping.
14697. LAPSE:2023.22213
Studies on the Gasification Performance of Sludge Cake Pre-Treated by Hydrothermal Carbonization
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: gasification, hydrothermal carbonization, sewage sludge cake, tar
Proper treatment and careful management of sewage sludge are essential because its disposal can lead to adverse environmental impacts such as public health hazards, as well as air, soil, and water pollution. Several efforts are being made currently not only to safely dispose of sewage sludge but also to utilize it as an energy source. Therefore, in this study, initiatives were taken to valorize sewage sludge cake by reducing the moisture content and increasing the calorific value by applying a hydrothermal treatment technique for efficient energy recovery. The sludge cake treated at 200 °C for 1 h was found to be the optimum condition for hydrothermal carbonization, as, in this condition, the caloric value of the treated sludge increased by 10% and the moisture content removed was 20 wt.%. To recover energy from the hydrothermally treated sludge, a gasification technology was applied at 900 °C. The results showed that the product gas from hydrothermally treated sludge cake had a higher... [more]
14698. LAPSE:2023.22212
Analyzing the Validity of Brazilian Testing Using Digital Image Correlation and Numerical Simulation Techniques
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Brazilian test, Digital Image Correlation, MAPE, Simulation, Spider Berea sandstone, stress distribution
Characterizing the mechanical behavior of rocks plays a crucial role to optimize the fracturing process in unconventional reservoirs. However, due to the intrinsic anisotropy and heterogeneity in unconventional resources, fracture process prediction remains the most significant challenge for sustainable and economic hydrocarbon production. During the deformation tracking under compression, deploying conventional methods (strain gauge, extensometer, etc.) is insufficient to measure the deformation since the physical attachment of the device is restricted to the size of the sample, monitoring limited point-wise deformation, producing difficulties in data retrieval, and a tendency to lose track in failure points, etc. Where conventional methods are limited, the application of digital image correlation (DIC) provides detailed and additional information of strain evolution and fracture patterns under loading. DIC is an image-based optical method that records an object with a camera and moni... [more]
14699. LAPSE:2023.22211
Experimental Verification of the Inverse Method of the Heat Transfer Coefficient Calculation
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: control volume method, diagnostic system, experimental verification, inverse problems
The purpose of this work is to formulate a method which can be used to solve nonlinear inverse heat conduction problems and to calculate the heat transfer coefficient distribution on the unknown boundary. The domain under consideration is divided into control volumes in polar coordinates, and heat balance equations are written. Based on temperature transients measured in selected points on the outer surface, temperature values in other points of the domain are determined. Finally, the heat transfer coefficient distribution on the inner surface with the unknown boundary condition is calculated from the presented heat balance equation. The proposed inverse method was verified experimentally using a collector that is part of a semi-industrial laboratory system. This collector is a horizontal, cylindrical thick-walled tank with flat side walls with outlets that enable oil supply and removal. Each side wall has an additional connector to ensure venting. The calculations made it possible to... [more]
14700. LAPSE:2023.22210
An Ensemble Learner-Based Bagging Model Using Past Output Data for Photovoltaic Forecasting
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: bagging, decision tree, ensemble, lagged data, Light GBM, Machine Learning, photovoltaic power forecasting, random forest, XGBoost
As the world is aware, the trend of generating energy sources has been changing from conventional fossil fuels to sustainable energy. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the ratio of renewable energy sources should be increased, and solar and wind power, typically, are driving this energy change. However, renewable energy sources highly depend on weather conditions and have intermittent generation characteristics, thus embedding uncertainty and variability. As a result, it can cause variability and uncertainty in the power system, and accurate prediction of renewable energy output is essential to address this. To solve this issue, much research has studied prediction models, and machine learning is one of the typical methods. In this paper, we used a bagging model to predict solar energy output. Bagging generally uses a decision tree as a base learner. However, to improve forecasting accuracy, we proposed a bagging model using an ensemble model as a base learner and adding pas... [more]

