Modeling the photovoltaic (PV) energy output with high accuracy is essential for predicting and analyzing the performance of a PV system. In the particular cases of building-integrated and building-attached photovoltaic systems (BIPV and BAPV, respectively) the time-varying partial shading conditions are a relevant added difficulty for modeling the PV power conversion. The availability of laser imaging detection and ranging (LIDAR) data to create very-high-resolution elevation digital models can be effectively used for computing the shading at high resolution. In this work, an artificial neural network (ANN) has been used to model the power generation of different BIPV arrays on a 5 min basis using the meteorological and solar irradiance on-site conditions, as well as the shading patterns estimated from a digital surface model as inputs. The ANN model has been validated using three years of 5-min-basis monitored data showing very high accuracy (6−16% of relative error depending on the... [more]

Problems with inaccurate prediction of electricity generation from photovoltaic (PV) farms cause severe operational, technical, and financial risks, which seriously affect both their owners and grid operators. Proper prediction results are required for optimal planning the spinning reserve as well as managing inertia and frequency response in the case of contingency events. In this work, the impact of a number of meteorological parameters on PV electricity generation in Poland was analyzed using the Pearson coefficient. Furthermore, seven machine learning models using Lasso Regression, K−Nearest Neighbours Regression, Support Vector Regression, AdaBoosted Regression Tree, Gradient Boosted Regression Tree, Random Forest Regression, and Artificial Neural Network were developed to predict electricity generation from a 0.7 MW solar PV power plant in Poland. The models were evaluated using determination coefficient (R2), the mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE). It w... [more]

This paper presents the results of comparative studies on the implementation of machine learning methods in the damage intensity assessment of masonry buildings. The research was performed on existing residential buildings, subjected to negative impacts of the industrial environment induced by coal mining plants during their whole technical life cycle. The research was justified on the grounds of safety of use, as well as potential energy losses and CO2 emissions generated by the inefficient management of building materials resources resulting from poor planning of retrofitting. In this field, the research is in line with the global trends of large-scale retrofitting of existing buildings in European countries due to their thermal insulation parameters and seismic hazard. By combining this with the effects of material degradation throughout the technical lifecycle of buildings, the proposed methods allow for a more efficient approach to maintaining quality management of large groups of... [more]

As telecommunications are becoming increasingly important for modern systems, ensuring secure data transmission is getting more and more critical. Specialised numerous devices that form smart grids are a potential attack vector and therefore is a challenge for cybersecurity. It requires the continuous development of methods to counteract this risk. This paper presents a heuristic approach to detecting threats in network traffic using statistical analysis of packet flows. The important advantage of this method is ability of intrusion detection also in encrypted transmissions. Flow information is processing by neural networks to detect malicious traffic. The architectures of subsequent versions of the artificial neural networks were generated based on the results obtained by previous iterations by searching the hyperparameter space, resulting in more refined models. Finally, the networks prepared in this way exhibited high performance while maintaining a small size—thereby making them an... [more]

Load prediction with higher accuracy and less computing power has become an important problem in the smart grids domain in general and especially in demand-side management (DSM), as it can serve to minimize global warming and better integrate renewable energies. To this end, it is interesting to have a general prediction model which uses different standard machine learning models in order to be flexible enough to be used in different regions and/or countries and to give a prediction for multiple days or weeks with relatively good accuracy. Thus, we propose in this article a flexible hybrid machine learning model that can be used to make predictions of different ranges by using both standard neural networks and an automatic process of updating the weights of these models depending on their past errors. The model was tested on Mayotte Island and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) obtained was 1.71% for 30 min predictions, 3.5% for 24 h predictions, and 5.1% for one-week prediction... [more]

The Equivalent Consumption Minimization Strategy (ECMS) is a well-known control strategy for the definition of optimal power-split in hybrid-electric vehicles, because of its effectiveness and reduced calibration effort. In this kind of Energy Management Systems (EMS), the correct identification of an equivalence factor (K), which translates electric power in equivalent fuel consumption, is of paramount importance. To guarantee charge sustaining operation, the K factor must be adjusted to different mission profiles. Adaptive ECMS (A-ECMS) techniques have thus been introduced, which automatically determine the optimal equivalence factor based on the vehicle mission. The aim of this research activity is to assess the potential in terms of fuel consumption and charge sustainability of different A-ECMS techniques on a gasoline hybrid-electric passenger car. First, the 0D vehicle and powertrain model was developed in the commercial CAE software GT-SUITE. An ECMS-based EMS was used to contro... [more]

Accurate prediction of an off-normal event in a nuclear reactor is dependent upon the availability of sensory data, reactor core physical condition, and understanding of the underlying phenomenon. This work presents a method to project the data from some discrete sensory locations to the overall reactor domain during conduction cooldown scenarios similar to High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors (HTGRs). The existing models for conductive cooldown in a heterogeneous multi-body system, such as an assembly of prismatic blocks or pebble beds relies on knowledge of the thermal contact conductance, requiring significant knowledge of local thermal contacts and heat transport possibilities across those contacts. With a priori knowledge of bulk geometry features and some discrete sensors, a machine learning approach was devised. The presented work uses an experimental facility to mimic conduction cooldown with an assembly of 68 cylindrical rods initially heated to 1200 K. High-fidelity temperatu... [more]

In recent years, machine learning, especially deep learning, has developed rapidly and has shown remarkable performance in many tasks of the smart grid field. The representation ability of machine learning algorithms is greatly improved, but with the increase of model complexity, the interpretability of machine learning algorithms is worse. The smart grid is a critical infrastructure area, so machine learning models involving it must be interpretable in order to increase user trust and improve system reliability. Unfortunately, the black-box nature of most machine learning models remains unresolved, and many decisions of intelligent systems still lack explanation. In this paper, we elaborate on the definition, motivations, properties, and classification of interpretability. In addition, we review the relevant literature addressing interpretability for smart grid applications. Finally, we discuss the future research directions of interpretable machine learning in the smart grid.

In recent years, demand for electric energy has steadily increased; therefore, the integration of renewable energy sources (RES) at a large scale into power systems is a major concern. Wind and solar energy are among the most widely used alternative sources of energy. However, there is intense variability both in solar irradiation and even more in windspeed, which causes solar and wind power generation to fluctuate highly. As a result, the penetration of RES technologies into electricity networks is a difficult task. Therefore, more accurate solar irradiation and windspeed one-day-ahead forecasting is crucial for safe and reliable operation of electrical systems, the management of RES power plants, and the supply of high-quality electric power at the lowest possible cost. Clouds’ influence on solar irradiation forecasting, data categorization per month for successive years due to the similarity of patterns of solar irradiation per month during the year, and relative seasonal similarity... [more]

The geological sequestration of CO2 in deep saline aquifers is one of the most effective strategies to reduce greenhouse emissions from the stationary point sources of CO2. However, it is a complex task to quantify the storage capacity of an aquifer as it is a function of various geological characteristics and operational decisions. This study applies physics-based proxy modeling by using multiple machine learning (ML) models to predict the CO2 trapping scenarios in a deep saline aquifer. A compositional reservoir simulator was used to develop a base case proxy model to simulate the CO2 trapping mechanisms (i.e., residual, solubility, and mineral trapping) for 275 years following a 25-year CO2 injection period in a deep saline aquifer. An expansive dataset comprising 19,800 data points was generated by varying several key geological and decision parameters to simulate multiple iterations of the base case model. The dataset was used to develop, train, and validate four robust ML models—... [more]

Well planning for every drilling project includes cost estimation. Maximizing the rate of penetration (ROP) reduces the time required for drilling, resulting in reducing the expenses required for the drilling budget. The empirical formulas developed to predict ROP have limited field applications. Since real-time drilling data acquisition and computing technologies have improved over the years, we implemented the data-driven approach for this purpose. We investigated the potential of machine learning and deep learning algorithms to predict the nonlinear behavior of the ROP. The well was drilled to confirm the geothermal reservoir characteristics for the FORGE site. After cleaning and preprocessing the data, we selected two models and optimized their hyperparameters. According to our findings, the random forest regressor and the artificial neural network predicted the behavior of our field ROP with a maximum absolute mean error of 3.98, corresponding to 19% of the ROP’s standard deviatio... [more]

Smart buildings that utilize innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), the internet of things (IoT), and cloud computing to improve comfort and reduce energy waste are gaining popularity. Smart buildings comprise a range of sensors to measure real-time indoor environment variables essential for the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system control strategies. For accuracy and smooth operation, current HVAC system control strategies require multiple sensors to capture the indoor environment variables. However, using too many sensors creates an extensive network that is costly and complex to maintain. Our proposed research solves the mentioned problem by implementing a machine-learning algorithm to estimate unmeasured variables utilizing a limited number of sensors. Using a six-month data set collected from a three-story smart building in Japan, several extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were designed and trained to estimate unmeasured room temp... [more]

In the course of the switch to renewable energy sources, there is a shift from a few large energy sources (power plants) to a large number of small, distributed energy sources (e.g., photovoltaic systems) and energy storage devices (e.g., electric vehicles). This results in the need to know and identify these energy sources and sinks as soon as new devices are installed, in order to ensure grid stability. This paper presents an approach to identify energy sources and energy storage in smart meter data, using photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles as examples. For this purpose, the Pecan Street dataset is used, which has been extended by charging processes from the ACN dataset. The presented approach comprises a combination of a Convolutional Neural Network and a Multilayer Perceptron, which decides separately, on the basis of the smart meter data of a household, whether an electric vehicle and a photovoltaic system are present. It is shown that the combination of both classifiers a... [more]

Primary fuels, i.e., crude oil, natural gas, and power coal, dominate the total global demand for primary energy. Among them, crude oil plays a particularly important role due to the universality of applications and the practical lack of substitutes in transport. Crude oil is also one of the main sources of primary energy in Poland and accounts for around 30% of the energy consumed. Poland covers only 3% of its needs from domestic deposits. The rest is imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Great Britain, Kazakhstan, and Norway. Due to such a high import of raw material, Poland must anticipate future demand. On the one hand, this article aims to analyze the current (2020) and future (2040) crude oil consumption on the Polish market. The study analyzes the geopolitical and economic foundations of the functioning of the energy raw-materials market, the crude oil supply, the structure of Poland’s energy mix, and assumptions about the energy policy until 2040. On the other hand, conc... [more]

This paper proposes a novel network anomaly detection framework based on data balance and feature selection. Different from the previous binary classification of network intrusion, the network anomaly detection strategy proposed in this paper solves the problem of multiple classification of network intrusion. Regarding the common data imbalance of a network intrusion detection set, a resampling strategy generated by random sampling and Borderline SMOTE data is developed for data balance. According to the features of the intrusion detection dataset, feature selection is carried out based on information gain rate. Experiments are carried out on three basic machine learning algorithms (K-nearest neighbor algorithm (KNN), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF)), and the optimal feature selection scheme is obtained.

Data-driven normal behaviour models have gained traction over the last few years as a convenient way of modelling turbine operational health to detect anomalies. By leveraging high-dimensional operational relationships, temperature thresholds can be automatically calculated based on each individual turbine unique operating envelope, in theory minimising false alarms and providing more reliable diagnostics. The aim of this work is to provide further insight into practical uses and limitations of implementing normal behaviour temperature models in practice, to inform practitioners, as well as assist in improving wind turbine generator fault detection systems. Results suggest that, on average, as little as two months of data are adequate to produce stable temperature alarm thresholds, with the worst case example requiring approximately 200−290 days of data depending on the component and desired convergence criteria.

Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography (ECVT) has emerged as an attractive technology for addressing instrumentation requirements in various energy-related multiphase flow systems. ECVT can monitor multiple flow conditions and reconstruct real-time 3D images from capacitance measurements using a large set of electrode plates placed around the processes column enclosing the sensed flow system. ECVT is non-intrusive and allows the measurement of changes in mutual capacitance between all possible plate pair combinations. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of recent advances in ECVT, enabling robust monitoring of multiphase flows, especially water-containing multiphase flows.

Numerical models can be used for many purposes in oil and gas engineering, such as production optimization and forecasting, uncertainty analysis, history matching, and risk assessment. However, subsurface problems are complex and non-linear, and making reliable decisions in reservoir management requires substantial computational effort. Proxy models have gained much attention in recent years. They are advanced non-linear interpolation tables that can approximate complex models and alleviate computational effort. Proxy models are constructed by running high-fidelity models to gather the necessary data to create the proxy model. Once constructed, they can be a great choice for different tasks such as uncertainty analysis, optimization, forecasting, etc. The application of proxy modeling in oil and gas has had an increasing trend in recent years, and there is no consensus rule on the correct choice of proxy model. As a result, it is crucial to better understand the advantages and disadvan... [more]

In this paper, the possibility of installing small hydraulic turbines in existing water-supply networks, which exploit the daily pressure fluctuations in order to produce energy, is examined. For this purpose, a network of five pressure sensors is developed, which is connected to an artificial intelligence system in order to predict the daily pressure values of all nodes of the network. The sensors are placed at the critical nodes of the network. The locations of the critical nodes are implemented by applying graph theory algorithms to the water distribution network. EPANET software is used to generate the artificial intelligence training data with an appropriate external call from a Python script. Then, an improvement model is implemented using the Harmony Search Algorithm in order to calculate the daily pressure program, which can be allocated to the turbines and, consequently, the maximum energy production. The proposed methodology is applied to a benchmark water supply network and... [more]

Optimizing the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system to minimize district heating usage in large groups of managed buildings is of the utmost important, and it requires a machine learning (ML) model to predict the energy consumption. An industrial use case to reach large building groups is restricted to using normal operational data in the modeling, and this is one reason for the low utilization of ML in HVAC optimization. We present a methodology to select the best-fitting ML model on the basis of both Bayesian optimization of black-box models for defining hyperparameters and a fivefold cross-validation for the assessment of each model’s predictive performance. The methodology was tested in one case study using normal operational data, and the model was applied to analyze the energy savings in two different practical scenarios. The software for the modeling is published on GitHub. The results were promising in terms of predicting the energy consumption, and one of t... [more]

Transmission losses through the building envelope account for a large proportion of building energy balance. One of the most important parameters for determining transmission losses is thermal transmittance. Although thermal transmittance does not take into account dynamic parameters, it is traditionally the most commonly used estimation of transmission losses due to its simplicity and efficiency. It is challenging to estimate the thermal transmittance of an existing building element because thermal properties are commonly unknown or not all the layers that make up the element can be found due to technical-drawing information loss. In such cases, experimental methods are essential, the most common of which is the heat-flux method (HFM). One of the main drawbacks of the HFM is the long measurement duration. This research presents the application of deep learning on HFM results by applying long-short term memory units on temperature difference and measured heat flux. This deep-learning r... [more]

In this paper, for the data set of the Iberian Electricity Market for the period 1 January 2015 to 30 June 2019, 19 different models are considered from econometrics, statistics, and artificial intelligence to explain how electricity markets work. This survey allows us to obtain a more complete, critical view of the most cited models. The machine learning models appear to be very good at selecting the best explanatory variables for the price. They provide an interesting insight into how much the price depends on each variable under a nonlinear perspective. Notwithstanding, it might be necessary to make the results understandable. Both the autoregressive models and the linear regression models can provide clear explanations for each explanatory variable, with special attention given to GARCHX and LASSO regression, which provide a cleaner linear result by removing variables that have a minimal linear impact.

Amongst energy-related CO2 emissions, electricity is the largest single contributor, and with the proliferation of electric vehicles and other developments, energy use is expected to increase. Load forecasting is essential for combating these issues as it balances demand and production and contributes to energy management. Current state-of-the-art solutions such as recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and sequence-to-sequence algorithms (Seq2Seq) are highly accurate, but most studies examine them on a single data stream. On the other hand, in natural language processing (NLP), transformer architecture has become the dominant technique, outperforming RNN and Seq2Seq algorithms while also allowing parallelization. Consequently, this paper proposes a transformer-based architecture for load forecasting by modifying the NLP transformer workflow, adding N-space transformation, and designing a novel technique for handling contextual features. Moreover, in contrast to most load forecasting studies... [more]

Battery storage is emerging as a key component of intelligent green electricitiy systems. The battery is monetized through market participation, which usually involves bidding. Bidding is a multi-objective optimization problem, involving targets such as maximizing market compensation and minimizing penalties for failing to provide the service and costs for battery aging. In this article, battery participation is investigated on primary frequency reserve markets. Reinforcement learning is applied for the optimization. In previous research, only simplified formulations of battery aging have been used in the reinforcement learning formulation, so it is unclear how the optimizer would perform with a real battery. In this article, a physics-based battery aging model is used to assess the aging. The contribution of this article is a methodology involving a realistic battery simulation to assess the performance of the trained RL agent with respect to battery aging in order to inform the selec... [more]

This study presents a novel hybrid framework combining feature selection, oversampling, and machine learning (ML) to improve the prediction performance of vehicle insurance. The framework addresses the class imbalance problem in binary classification tasks by employing principal component analysis for feature selection, the synthetic minority oversampling technique for oversampling, and the random forest ML classifier for prediction. The results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid framework outperforms the conventional approach and achieves better accuracy. The purpose of this study is to provide insurance managers and practitioners with novel insights into how to improve prediction accuracy and decrease financial risks for the insurance industry.