The use of renewable energies, such as Photovoltaic (PV) solar power, is necessary to meet the growing energy consumption. PV solar power generation has intrinsic characteristics related to the climatic variables that cause intermittence during the generation process, promoting instabilities and insecurity in the electrical system. One of the solutions for this problem uses methods for the Prediction of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation (PSPPG). In this context, the aim of this study is to develop and compare the prediction accuracy of solar irradiance between Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Long-Term Short Memory (LSTM) network models, from a comprehensive analysis that simultaneously considers two distinct sets of exogenous meteorological input variables and three short-term prediction horizons (1, 15 and 60 min), in a controlled experimental environment. The results indicate that there is a significant difference (p < 0.001) in the prediction accuracy between the ANN and LS... [more]

Wind power represents a promising source of renewable energies. Precise forecasting of wind power generation is crucial to mitigate the challenges of balancing supply and demand in the smart grid. Nevertheless, the major difficulty in wind power is its high fluctuation and intermittent nature, making it challenging to forecast. This study aims to develop efficient data-driven models to accurately forecast wind power generation. Crucially, the main contributions of this work are listed in the following major elements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of enhanced machine learning models to forecast univariate wind power time-series data. Specifically, we employed Bayesian optimization (BO) to optimally tune hyperparameters of the Gaussian process regression (GPR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) with different kernels, and ensemble learning (ES) models (i.e., Boosted trees and Bagged trees) and investigated their forecasting performance. Secondly, dynamic information has been inco... [more]

Data are an important asset that the electric power industry have available today to support management decisions, excel in operational efficiency, and be more competitive. The advent of smart grids has increased power grid sensorization and so, too, the data availability. However, the inability to recognize the value of data beyond the siloed application in which data are collected is seen as a barrier. Power load time series are one of the most important types of data collected by utilities, because of the inherent information in them (e.g., power load time series comprehend human behavior, economic momentum, and other trends). The area of time series analysis in the energy domain is attracting considerable interest because of growing available data as more sensorization is deployed in power grids. This study considers the shapelet technique to create interpretable classifiers for four use cases. The study systematically applied the shapelet technique to data from different hierarchi... [more]

The definition of room functions in Building Information Modeling (BIM) using IfcSpace entities is an important quality requirement that is often not fulfilled. This paper presents a three-step method for enriching open BIM representations based on Industry Foundation Classes (IFC) with room function information (e.g., kitchen, living room, foyer). In the first step, the geometric algorithm for detecting and defining IfcSpace entities and injecting them into IFC models is presented. After deriving the IfcSpaces, a geometric method for calculating the graph of connections between spaces based on accessibility is described; this information is not explicitly stored in IFC models. In the final step, a graph convolution-based neural network using the accessibility graph to classify the IfcSpace entities is described. Local node features are automatically extracted from the geometry and neighboring elements. With the help of a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), the connection and spatial co... [more]

Sustainable energy systems rely on energy yield from renewable resources such as solar radiation and wind, which are typically not on-demand and need to be stored or immediately consumed. Solar irradiance is a highly stochastic phenomenon depending on fluctuating atmospheric conditions, in particular clouds and aerosols. The complexity of weather conditions in terms of many variable parameters and their inherent unpredictability limit the performance and accuracy of solar power forecasting models. As renewable power penetration in electricity grids increases due to the rapid increase in the installation of photovoltaics (PV) systems, the resulting challenges are amplified. A regional PV power prediction system is presented and evaluated by providing forecasts up to 72 h ahead with an hourly time resolution. The proposed approach is based on a local radiation forecast model developed by Blue Sky. In this paper, we propose a novel method of deriving forecast equations by using an irradia... [more]

Driven by the development of machine learning (ML) and deep learning techniques, prognostics and health management (PHM) has become a key aspect of reliability engineering research. With the recent rise in popularity of quantum computing algorithms and public availability of first-generation quantum hardware, it is of interest to assess their potential for efficiently handling large quantities of operational data for PHM purposes. This paper addresses the application of quantum kernel classification models for fault detection in wind turbine systems (WTSs). The analyzed data correspond to low-frequency SCADA sensor measurements and recorded SCADA alarm logs, focused on the early detection of pitch fault failures. This work aims to explore potential advantages of quantum kernel methods, such as quantum support vector machines (Q-SVMs), over traditional ML approaches and compare principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE) as feature reduction tools. Results show that the pro... [more]

To move the world toward a more sustainable energy future, it is crucial to use the limited hydrocarbon geological resources efficiently and to develop technologies that facilitate this. More rational management of petroleum reservoirs and underground gas storage can be obtained by optimizing well control. This paper presents a novel approach to optimal well control based on the combination of optimal control theory, innovative artificial intelligence methods, and numerical reservoir simulations. In the developed algorithm, well control is based on an auto-adaptive parameterized decision tree. Its parameters are optimized by state-of-the-art machine learning, which uses previous results to determine favorable parameters. During optimization, a numerical reservoir simulator is applied to compute the objective function. The developed solution enables full automation of the wells for optimal control. An exemplary application of the developed solution to optimize underground storage of gas... [more]

In CO2 sequestration projects, assessing caprock structural stability is crucial to assure the success and reliability of the CO2 injection. However, since caprock experimental data are sparse, we applied a Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm to generate stochastic data from the given mean and standard deviation values. The generated data sets were introduced to a neural network (NN), including four hidden layers for classification purposes. The model was then used to evaluate organic-rich Draupne caprock shale failure in the Alpha structure, northern North Sea. The train and test were carried out with 75% and 25% of the input data, respectively. Following that, validation is accomplished with unseen data, yielding promising classification scores. The results show that introducing larger input data sizes to the established NN provides better convergence conditions and higher classification scores. Although the NN can predicts the failure states with a classification score of 97%, the structural... [more]

Quantifying the climatic effect on residential electricity consumption (REC) can provide valuable insights for improving climate−energy damage functions. Our study quantifies the effect of climate on the REC in Tibet using machine learning algorithm models and model-agnostic interpretation tools of feature importance scores and partial dependence plots. Results show that the climate contributes about 16.46% to total Tibet REC while socioeconomic factors contribute about 83.55%. Precipitation (particularly snowfall) boosts electricity consumption during the cold season. The effect of the climate is stronger in urban Tibet (~25.06%) than rural Tibet (~14.79%), particularly in September when electricity-aided heating is considered optional, as higher incomes amplified the REC response to the climate. With urbanization and income growth, the climate is expected to contribute more to Tibet REC. Hence, precipitation should be incorporated in climate−REC functions for the social cost of carbo... [more]

Solar power has rapidly become an increasingly important energy source in many countries over recent years; however, the intermittent nature of photovoltaic (PV) power generation has a significant impact on existing power systems. To reduce this uncertainty and maintain system security, precise solar power forecasting methods are required. This study summarizes and compares various PV power forecasting approaches, including time-series statistical methods, physical methods, ensemble methods, and machine and deep learning methods, the last of which there is a particular focus. In addition, various optimization algorithms for model parameters are summarized, the crucial factors that influence PV power forecasts are investigated, and input selection for PV power generation forecasting models are discussed. Probabilistic forecasting is expected to play a key role in the PV power forecasting required to meet the challenges faced by modern grid systems, and so this study provides a comparati... [more]

Rotor bars are one of the most failure-critical components in induction machines. We present an approach for developing a rotor bar fault identification classifier for induction machines. The developed machine learning-based models are based on simulated electrical current and vibration velocity data and measured vibration acceleration data. We introduce an approach that combines sequential model-based optimization and the nested cross-validation procedure to provide a reliable estimation of the classifiers’ generalization performance. These methods have not been combined earlier in this context. Automation of selected parts of the modeling procedure is studied with the measured data. We compare the performance of logistic regression and CatBoost models using the fast Fourier-transformed signals or their extracted statistical features as the input data. We develop a technique to use domain knowledge to extract features from specific frequency ranges of the fast Fourier-transformed sign... [more]

This paper details the selection of machine learning models for predicting the effectiveness of a heat pipe system in a concentric tube exchanger. Heat exchanger experiments with methanol as the working fluid were conducted. The value of the angle varied from 0° to 90°, values of temperature varied from 50 °C to 70 °C, and the flow rate varied from 40 to 120 litres per min. Multiple experiments were conducted at different combinations of the input parameters and the effectiveness was measured for each trial. Multiple machine learning algorithms were taken into consideration for prediction. Experimental data were divided into subsets and the performance of the machine learning model was analysed for each of the subsets. For the overall analysis, which included all the three parameters, the random forest algorithm returned the best results with a mean average error of 1.176 and root-mean-square-error of 1.542.

The indicated mean effective pressure (IMEP) is a key parameter for measuring the power output of an internal combustion engine (ICE). This indicator can be used to locate the high efficiency regions of engines. Therefore, it makes sense to predict the IMEP based on the machine learning (ML) approaches. However, different ML models are applicable to different scenarios, so it is important to choose the right model for prediction. The objective of this paper was to compare three ML models’ (ANN, SVR, RF) predictive performance in forecasting IMEP indicator with the input parameters spark timing (ST), speed and load. A validated one-dimensional (1D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was employed to provide 756 sets of data for the training, validation, and testing of the model. The results indicated that the random forest (RF) model had the worst prediction performance, and support vector regression (SVR) had a slightly better prediction performance than the artificial neural netw... [more]

The article presents research on the influence of the type of UHF antenna and the type of machine learning algorithm on the effectiveness of classification of partial discharges (PD) occurring in the insulation system of a power transformer. For this purpose, four antennas specially adapted to be installed in the transformer tank (UHF disk sensor, UHF drain valve sensor, planar inverted F-type antenna, Hilbert curve fractal antenna) and a reference log-periodic antenna were used in laboratory tests. During the research, the main types of PD, typical for oil-paper insulation, were generated, i.e., PD in oil, PD in oil wedge, PD in gas bubbles, surface discharges, and creeping sparks. For the registered UHF PD pulses, nine features in the frequency domain and four features in the wavelet domain were extracted. Then, the PD classification process was carried out with the use of selected methods of supervised machine learning. The study investigated the influence of the number and type of... [more]

Thin-walled tubes are widely used as energy-absorbing components in traffic vehicles, which can absorb part of the energy in time by using the plastic deformation of the components during collision so as to reduce the damage of the vehicle body and improve the overall safety and reliability of traffic vehicles. The prefolded design of thin-walled tube components can guide it to achieve the ideal energy dissipation performance according to the preset damage path, so the related research based on origami tubes has attracted a lot of attention. Since the geometry of the origami tubes is controlled by many parameters and stress and deformation is a complex nonlinear damage process, most of the previous studies adopted the method of case analysis to carry out numerical simulation and experimental verification of the relevant influence parameters. This paper makes a new exploration of this kind of problem and focuses on solving the related technical problems in three aspects: 1. The automati... [more]

In this study, we present a new approach for load forecasting (LF) using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) for Kermanshah City. Imagine if there is a need for electricity in a region in the coming years, we will have to build a power plant or reinforce transmission lines, so this will be resolved if accurate forecasts are made at the right time. Furthermore, suppose that by building distributed generation plants, and predicting future consumption, we can conclude that production will be more than consumption, so we will seek to export energy to other countries and make decisions on this. In this paper, a novel combination of neural networks (NNs) and type-2 fuzzy systems (T2FSs) is used for load forecasting. Adding feedback to the fuzzy neural network can also benefit from past moments. This feedback structure is called a recurrent fuzzy neural network. In this paper, Kermanshah urban electrical load data is used. The simulation results prove the efficiency of this method for for... [more]

The forecast and estimation of total electric power demand of a residential community, its baseload, and its heating ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) power component, which represents a very large portion of a community electricity usage, are important enablers for optimal energy controls and utility planning. This paper proposes a method that employs machine learning in a multi-step integrated approach. An LSTM model for total electric power at the main circuit feeder is trained using historic multi-year hourly data, outdoor temperature, and solar irradiance. New key temperature indicators, TmHAVC, corresponding to the standby zero-power operation for HVAC systems for summer cooling and winter heating are introduced using a V-shaped hourly total load curve. The trained LTSM model is additionally run with TmHVAC and zero irradiance inputs yielding an estimated baseload, which is representative of typical occupancy patterns. The HVAC power component is disaggregated as the differ... [more]

Data driven approaches are utilized for optimal sensor placement as well as for velocity prediction of wind turbine wakes. In this work, several methods are investigated for suitability in the clustering analysis and for predicting the time history of the flow field. The studies start by applying a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) technique to extract the dynamics of the flow. This is followed by evaluations of different hyperparameters of the clustering and machine learning algorithms as well as their impacts on the prediction accuracy. Two test cases are considered: (1) the wake of a cylinder and (2) the wake of a rotating wind turbine rotor exposed to complex flow conditions. The training and test data for both cases are obtained from high fidelity CFD approaches. The studies reveal that the combination of a classification-based machine learning algorithm for optimal sensor placement and Bi-LSTM is sufficient for predicting periodic signals, but a more advanced technique is req... [more]

Low salinity water injection (LSWI) is an emerging way to improve waterflood performance through chemical processes. The presence of clay minerals is one of the required parameters to successfully implement LSWI in sandstone formations. The ability of clays to exchange the cations, represented by cation exchange capacity (CEC), leads to oil detachment from the rock surface and changes the formation wettability toward water-wet. There are still limited studies that discuss the implementation of specific CEC models in the field-scale LSWI reservoir simulation. This paper attempts to propose an improved method of clay-induced rock typing that can be representatively implemented for field-scale reservoir simulation. The scope of this study is limited to a sandstone reservoir from an oil field in Indonesia. The oil is considered light, and the reservoir contains main clay minerals, including kaolinite and illite, and a trace of chlorite was also found from the XRD evaluation. CEC can be der... [more]

From a practical point of view, a turbine load cycle (TLC) is defined as the time a turbine in a power plant remains in operation. TLC is used by many electric power plants as a stop indicator for turbine maintenance. In traditional operations, a maximum time for the operation of a turbine is usually estimated and, based on the TLC, the remaining operating time until the equipment is subjected to new maintenance is determined. Today, however, a better process is possible, as there are many turbines with sensors that carry out the telemetry of the operation, and machine learning (ML) models can use this data to support decision making, predicting the optimal time for equipment to stop, from the actual need for maintenance. This is predictive maintenance, and it is widely used in Industry 4.0 contexts. However, knowing which data must be collected by the sensors (the variables), and their impact on the training of an ML algorithm, is a challenge to be explored on a case-by-case basis. In... [more]

The identification of underground formation lithology is fundamental in reservoir characterization during petroleum exploration. With the increasing availability and diversity of well-logging data, automated interpretation of well-logging data is in great demand for more efficient and reliable decision making for geologists and geophysicists. This study benchmarked the performances of an array of machine learning models, from linear and nonlinear individual classifiers to ensemble methods, on the task of lithology identification. Cross-validation and Bayesian optimization were utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of different models and performances were evaluated based on the metrics of accuracy—the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), precision, recall, and F1-score. The dataset of the study consists of well-logging data acquired from the Baikouquan formation in the Mahu Sag of the Junggar Basin, China, including 4156 labeled data points with 9 well-loggi... [more]

Electric load management through continuous monitoring and intelligent controlling has become a pressing requirement, particularly in light of rising electrical energy costs. The main purpose of this work is to realize a low-voltage electrical distribution panelboard that allows for real-time load monitoring and that provides a load forecasting feature at the household level. In this regard, we demonstrate the design and the implementation details of an IoT-enabled panelboard with smart features. An IoT dashboard was used to display the most significant information in terms of voltage, current, real power, reactive power, apparent power, power factor, and energy consumption. Additionally, the panel system offers visualization capabilities that were integrated into a cloud-based machine learning modeling. Among several algorithms used, the Gaussian SVM regression exhibited the best training and validation results for the load forecasting feature. It is possible for the proposed design t... [more]

Permanent-magnet linear motors (PMLMs) are widely used in various fields of industrial production, and the optimization design of the PMLM is increasingly attracting attention in order to improve the comprehensive performance of the motor. The primary problem of PMLM optimization design is the establishment of a motor model, and this paper summarizes the modeling of the PMLM electromagnetic field. First, PMLM parametric modeling methods (model-driven methods) such as the equivalent circuit method, analytical method, and finite element method, are introduced, and then non-parametric modeling methods (data-driven methods) such as the surrogate model and machine learning are introduced. Non-parametric modeling methods have the characteristics of higher accuracy and faster computation, and are the mainstream approach to motor modeling at present. However, surrogate models and traditional machine learning models such as support vector machine (SVM) and extreme learning machine (ELM) approac... [more]

Under the idea of low carbon economy, natural gas has drawn widely attention all over the world and becomes one of the fastest growing energies because of its clean, high calorific value, and environmental protection properties. However, policy and political factors, supply-demand relationship and hurricanes can cause the jump in natural gas prices volatility. To address this issue, a deep learning model based on oil and gas news is proposed to predict natural gas price trends in this paper. In this model, news text embedding is conducted by BERT-Base, Uncased on natural gas-related news. Attention model is adopted to balance the weight of the news vector. Meanwhile, corresponding natural gas price embedding is conducted by a BiLSTM module. The Attention-weighted news vectors and price embedding are the inputs of the fused network with transformer is built. BiLSTM is used to extract used price information related with news features. Transformer is employed to capture time series trend... [more]

Reinforcement learning has emerged as a potentially disruptive technology for control and optimization of HVAC systems. A reinforcement learning agent takes actions, which can be direct HVAC actuator commands or setpoints for control loops in building automation systems. The actions are taken to optimize one or more targets, such as indoor air quality, energy consumption and energy cost. The agent receives feedback from the HVAC systems to quantify how well these targets have been achieved. The feedback is captured by a reward function designed by the developer of the reinforcement learning agent. A few reviews have focused on the reward aspect of reinforcement learning applications for HVAC. However, there is a lack of reviews that assess how the actions of the reinforcement learning agent have been formulated, and how this impacts the possibilities to achieve various optimization targets in single zone or multi-zone buildings. The aim of this review is to identify the action formulat... [more]