LAPSE:2023.30449
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.30449
Evolutionary Hybrid System for Energy Consumption Forecasting for Smart Meters
April 14, 2023
The usage of smart grids is growing steadily around the world. This technology has been proposed as a promising solution to enhance energy efficiency and improve consumption management in buildings. Such benefits are usually associated with the ability of accurately forecasting energy demand. However, the energy consumption series forecasting is a challenge for statistical linear and Machine Learning (ML) techniques due to temporal fluctuations and the presence of linear and non-linear patterns. Traditional statistical techniques are able to model linear patterns, while obtaining poor results in forecasting the non-linear component of the time series. ML techniques are data-driven and can model non-linear patterns, but their feature selection process and parameter specification are a complex task. This paper proposes an Evolutionary Hybrid System (EvoHyS) which combines statistical and ML techniques through error series modeling. EvoHyS is composed of three phases: (i) forecast of the linear and seasonal component of the time series using a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, (ii) forecast of the error series using an ML technique, and (iii) combination of both linear and non-linear forecasts from (i) and (ii) using a a secondary ML model. EvoHyS employs a Genetic Algorithm (GA) for feature selection and hyperparameter optimization in phases (ii) and (iii) aiming to improve its accuracy. An experimental evaluation was conducted using consumption energy data of a smart grid in a one-step-ahead scenario. The proposed hybrid system reaches statistically significant improvements when compared to other statistical, hybrid, and ML approaches from the literature utilizing well known metrics, such as Mean Squared Error (MSE).
Keywords
energy consumption, forecasting, hybrid systems, Machine Learning, smart metering, statistical models, time series
Suggested Citation
Izidio DMF, de Mattos Neto PSG, Barbosa L, de Oliveira JFL, Marinho MHDN, Rissi GF. Evolutionary Hybrid System for Energy Consumption Forecasting for Smart Meters. (2023). LAPSE:2023.30449
Author Affiliations
Izidio DMF: Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife 50740-560, Brazil; Advanced Institute of Technology and Innovation (IATI), Recife 50751-310, Brazil
de Mattos Neto PSG: Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife 50740-560, Brazil [ORCID]
Barbosa L: Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife 50740-560, Brazil [ORCID]
de Oliveira JFL: Escola Politécnica de Pernambuco, Universidade de Pernambuco, Recife 50720-001, Brazil [ORCID]
Marinho MHDN: Escola Politécnica de Pernambuco, Universidade de Pernambuco, Recife 50720-001, Brazil [ORCID]
Rissi GF: CPFL Energia, Campinas, São Paulo 13088-900, Brazil
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
7
First Page
1794
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-03-24
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en14071794, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.30449
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doi:10.3390/en14071794
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Apr 14, 2023
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