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Records with Subject: Energy Systems
5201. LAPSE:2023.19161
Costs to Reduce the Human Health Toxicity of Biogas Engine Emissions
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: avoided health damage cost, health impact assessment, internal combustion engines, regulated biogas emissions, unregulated biogas emissions
The anaerobic digestion of biodegradable substrates and waste is a well-known process that can be used worldwide to produce a renewable fuel called biogas. At the time of writing, the most widespread way of using biogas is its direct usage in combined heat and power internal combustion engines (CHP-ICEs) to generate electricity and heat. However, the combustion process generates emissions, which in turn have an impact on human health. Therefore, there is a need to: (i) measure the ICE emissions (both regulated and unregulated), (ii) compute the impact on human health, (iii) identify the substances with the highest impact and (iv) calculate the avoided damage to human health per Euro of investment in technology able to abate the specific type of pollutant. To this end, the authors conducted an experimental campaign and selected as a test case a 999 kWel biogas internal combustion engine. Then, the collected data, which included both regulated and unregulated emissions, were used to calc... [more]
5202. LAPSE:2023.19152
Analysis of Unidirectional Secondary Resonant Single Active Bridge DC−DC Converter
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: battery charger, DC–DC converter, isolated converter, secondary resonant single active bridge (SR–SAB) converter, soft switching, unidirectional converter
A compact and highly efficient unidirectional DC−DC converter is required as a battery charger for electrical vehicles, which will rapidly become widespread in the near future. The single active bridge (SAB) converter is proposed as a simple and high-frequency isolated unidirectional converter, which is comprised of an active H-bridge converter in the primary side, an isolated high frequency transformer, and a rectifying secondary diode bridge output circuit. This paper presents a novel, unidirectional, high-frequency isolated DC−DC converter called a Secondary Resonant Single Active Bridge (SR−SAB) DC−DC converter. The circuit topology of the SR−SAB converter is a resonant capacitor connected to each diode in parallel in order to construct the series resonant circuit in the secondary circuit. As a result, the SR−SAB converter achieves a higher total power factor at the high frequency transformer and a unity voltage conversion ratio under the unity transformer turns ratio. Small and no... [more]
5203. LAPSE:2023.19148
The Influence of the Nature of Redox-Active Moieties on the Properties of Redox-Active Ionic Liquids and on Their Use as Electrolyte for Supercapacitors
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Energy Storage, ionic liquid mixtures, redox-active ionic liquids, supercapacitors, task-specific ionic liquids
In this work, two new redox-active ionic liquids, one based on 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidine-N-oxide and the other based on 4,4′-bipyridine, are synthesized and characterized. A ferrocene-based redox-active ionic liquid is used for referencing the results. All ionic liquids are formed via salt-metathesis from halogenate to bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide. Their fundamental thermal characteristics are assessed with differential scanning calorimetry. While the imidazolium ionic liquids show no melting point, the phase transition is well observable for the viologen-based ionic liquid. The properties of the neat redox-active ionic liquids and of binary mixtures containing these ionic liquids (0.1 m) and 1-butyl-1-methyl pyrrolidinium-bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide have been investigated. Finally, the use of these binary mixtures in combination with activated carbon-based electrodes has been considered in view of the use of these redox-active electrolytes in supercapacitors.
5204. LAPSE:2023.19146
Effect of Divided Exhaust Period in a High Efficiency TGDI Engine
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: dedicated hybrid engine (DHE), divided exhaust period (DEP), exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), gasoline engine, high efficiency, turbocharged gasoline direct injection (TGDI)
The divided exhaust period (DEP) concept was applied to a high-efficiency gasoline engine and its impact on various engine performance aspects were investigated. To this end, key design parameters of DEP components were optimized through 1-D engine simulation. The designed DEP components were fabricated and experimental verification was performed through an engine dynamometer test. The developed DEP engine shows suitable performance for electrified vehicles, with a maximum thermal efficiency of 42.5% as well as a wide sweet spot area of efficiency over 40%. The improvement in thermal efficiency was mainly due to a reduction in pumping loss. Notably, the reduction in pumping loss was achieved under high exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) flow conditions, where further improvements in fuel consumption could be achieved through a synergistic combination of DEP implementation and high dilution combustion. Furthermore, a significantly improved catalyst light-off time, uncharacteristic in turbo... [more]
5205. LAPSE:2023.19143
Analytical Solution of Problems about the Radiative and Radiative−Conductive Stationary Heat Transfer in a Medium with an Arbitrary Dependence of the Scattering and Absorption on Frequency Boundary Conditions
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: diffusion of thermal radiation, radiative–conductive heat transfer
We defined a method for the analytical solution of problems on stationary radiative and radiative−conductive heat transfer in a medium with an arbitrary frequency dependence of absorption and scattering near its boundary. We obtained formulas for the heat conductance of the remote surface and the thickness of the radiative−conductive relaxation of the medium. We determined characteristics of radiant heat transfer from the medium to free space such as the radiation spectrum, the radiation temperature and the medium outer boundary temperature. In addition, we solved the problem on the radiative−conductive heat transfer from one of two parallel surfaces to another with a medium between them.
5206. LAPSE:2023.19138
Modern Trends in Design of Catalysts for Transformation of Biofuels into Syngas and Hydrogen: From Fundamental Bases to Performance in Real Feeds
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: biofuel reforming, coking stability, design, mechanism, nanocomposite active components, performance, structured catalysts
This review considers problems related to design of efficient structured catalysts for natural gas and biofuels transformation into syngas. Their active components are comprised of fluorite, perovskite and spinel oxides or their nanocomposites (both bulk and supported on high surface area Mg-doped alumina or MgAl2O4) promoted by platinum group metals, nickel and their alloys. A complex of modern structural, spectroscopic and kinetic methods was applied to elucidate atomic-scale factors controlling their performance and stability to coking, such as dispersion of metals/alloys, strong metal-support interaction and oxygen mobility/reactivity as dependent upon their composition and synthesis procedures. Monolithic catalysts comprised of optimized active components loaded on structured substrates with a high thermal conductivity demonstrated high activity and stability to coking in processes of natural gas and biofuels reforming into syngas. A pilot-scale axial reactor equipped with the int... [more]
5207. LAPSE:2023.19137
Optimal Time-of-Use Electricity Price for a Microgrid System Considering Profit of Power Company and Demand Users
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: energy storage system, photovoltaic power, time-of-use electricity, wind power
With high proportions of renewable energy generation in power systems, the power system dispatch with renewable energy generation has currently become a popular research direction. In our study, we propose a multi-objective dispatch model for a hybrid microgrid comprising a wind generator, photovoltaic (PV) generator, and an energy storage system to optimize the time-of-use (TOU) electricity price. The objective of the proposed multi-objective dispatch model is to maximize the profit of the power company and demand users, and minimize the proportion of users abandoning PV power and wind power. The elastic price of the load demand with a linear function is employed to optimize the TOU electricity price. Finally, we applied five test cases to validate the practicability of the multi-objective dispatch model.
5208. LAPSE:2023.19136
Performance Enhancement of a Partially Shaded Photovoltaic Array by Optimal Reconfiguration and Current Injection Schemes
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: current injection, DC to DC converter, maximum power point tracking, partial shading, photovoltaic array, reconfiguration, series parallel
The output of a photovoltaic array is reduced considerably when PV panels are shaded even partially. The impact of shading causes an appreciable loss in power delivery, since the PV panels are connected in series and parallel to contribute to the required voltage and power for the load. The prevailing research on mitigating the shading impact is mostly based on complex reconfiguration strategies where the PV panels are subjected to complex rewiring schemes. On the other hand, to disperse the shading many studies in the literature defend the physical rearrangement of the panels. The available intensive reconfiguration schemes, such as the series parallel (SP), bridge link (BL), honeycomb (HC), and total cross tied (TCT) schemes, try only to mitigate the shading impact and there is no scope for compensation; as a result, a loss of output power is inevitable. In the proposed research work, both the mitigation of and the compensation for the losses incurred due to shading are studied. In t... [more]
5209. LAPSE:2023.19134
Integrated Sustainable Energy for Sub-Saharan Africa: A Case Study of Machinga Boma in Malawi
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: energy access, hybrid energy systems, Malawi Machinga Boma, sub-Saharan Africa
Nearly 60% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa still live without access to electricity. Comparing the access rate of the countries in the region, Malawi ranks as one of the least electrified, with electricity available to only 14.6% of its population, as of 2018. This issue makes Malawi the case study of this research and poses the research question, “How can the low electricity access rate in Malawi be addressed?”. To address this research question, possible off grid, integrated, sustainable energy systems based on locally available energy resources—solar, wind, and diesel—are proposed. The multiyear and sensitivity analysis function of HOMER Pro microgrid simulation software is used to analyze the off grid performance of the proposed combinations of diesel generators, wind turbines, solar Photovoltaics, and battery storage, in providing power for an estimate of 400 households and nonresidential outlets in Machinga Boma, a community in the Southern region of Malawi. Based on the... [more]
5210. LAPSE:2023.19125
Experimental Investigations of the Ignitability of Several Coal Dust Qualities
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: ash content, dust explosion characteristics, lignite dust, median particle size, moisture content, the ignitability characteristic number
The ignition characteristics of coal dust is of high importance for the flame stability in coal-fired power plants. We investigate the ignitability of six lignite dust qualities and one hard coal using dust explosion tests and an ignitability characteristic number. The paper aims to identify the degree of impact of the properties of coals, such as the moisture content, the ash content etc., on the ignition characteristics and ultimately to compare the identified relevant ignition parameters to the ignition performance of the dust qualities in an industrially relevant environment. The minimum cloud ignition temperature (MCIT), the maximum rate of pressure rise ((dp/dt)max), the maximum explosion pressure (pmax), the deflagration index (Kst-value) and the modified ignitability characteristic number (ZWZmod.) were determined and were attributed to the moisture content, the ash content and the median particle size. The MCIT was largely influenced by the volatile content, whereas the variat... [more]
5211. LAPSE:2023.19123
Low Power Modular Battery Management System with a Wireless Communication Interface
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Energy Efficiency, lithium-ion batteries, low power electronics, modular battery management systems, wireless communication protocols
The paper concerns the design and development of large electric energy storage systems made of lithium cells. Most research advances in the development of lithium-ion battery management systems focus solely on safety, functionality, and improvement of the procedures for assessing the performance of systems without considering their energy efficiency. The paper presents an alternative approach to the design and analysis of large modular battery management systems. A modular battery management system and the dedicated wireless communication system were designed to analyze and optimize energy consumption. The algorithms for assembly, reporting, management, and communication procedures described in the paper are a robust design tool for further developing large and scalable battery systems. The conducted analysis of energy efficiency for the exemplary 100S15P system shows that the energy used to power the developed battery management system is comparable to the energy dissipated due to the... [more]
5212. LAPSE:2023.19121
On the Need to Determine Accurately the Impact of Higher-Order Sensitivities on Model Sensitivity Analysis, Uncertainty Quantification and Best-Estimate Predictions
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: adjusted parameters and responses, best-estimate predicted model parameters, best-estimate predicted model responses, curse of dimensionality, data assimilation, high-order response sensitivities to model parameters, model calibration
This work aims at underscoring the need for the accurate quantification of the sensitivities (i.e., functional derivatives) of the results (a.k.a. “responses”) produced by large-scale computational models with respect to the models’ parameters, which are seldom known perfectly in practice. The large impact that can arise from sensitivities of order higher than first has been highlighted by the results of a third-order sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of an OECD/NEA reactor physics benchmark, which will be briefly reviewed in this work to underscore that neglecting the higher-order sensitivities causes substantial errors in predicting the expectation and variance of model responses. The importance of accurately computing the higher-order sensitivities is further highlighted in this work by presenting a text-book analytical example from the field of neutron transport, which impresses the need for the accurate quantification of higher-order response sensitivities by demonstrating that... [more]
5213. LAPSE:2023.19116
Design Optimization of Electrodynamic Structure of Permanent Magnet Piston Mechanical Electric Engine
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: engine, integrated design, linear motor, mechanical-electric engine, Optimization
To meet the demand of multiple power requirements, and enhance power utilization, a new type of dual-element electricity unit is designed in this study, which is a permanent magnet piston mechanical electric engine. Based on the analysis method of traditional internal combustion engines and linear generators, the working principle of the engine and the magnetic field distribution in the electrodynamic structure are analyzed, the machine dynamics model and electrodynamics model of the engine are established, then the theoretical evaluation is additionally established using finite elements. Based on this, an optimization model is constructed with the electrodynamic shape dimension as the optimization variable, with the intention of growing the output power. The optimization of the engine electrodynamic shape is executed via the use of the finite aspect approach and the NLPQL optimization algorithm integrated. The results show that the optimized engine output electricity expanded to 8.40... [more]
5214. LAPSE:2023.19113
Experimental Study on the Starting-Up and Heat Transfer Characteristics of a Pulsating Heat Pipe under Local Low-Frequency Vibrations
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: heat transfer performance, local vibration, pulsating heat pipe, starting-up characteristic
Vibrations have attracted much attention as an effective method for enhancing heat transfer in pulsating heat pipes (PHPs). This study mainly investigates and explores the effects of local low-frequency vibrations on the starting-up and heat transfer characteristics of a PHP. The starting-up temperature and average temperatures along the evaporation section of the pulsating heat pipe were experimentally scrutinized, along with thermal performance, under local vibrations on evaporation, condensation and adiabatic sections, respectively. The following important conclusions can be derived by the experimental study: (1) The effect of vibrations at the evaporation section and at the adiabatic section during the starting-up time of the PHP were more significant than that at the condensation section; (2) vibrations at different positions could reduce the starting-up temperature of the PHP—the effect of the vibrations at the evaporation section was the best when heat power was lower, while the... [more]
5215. LAPSE:2023.19110
Research on the State of Charge of Lithium-Ion Battery Based on the Fractional Order Model
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: fractional order model, lithium ion battery, SOC estimation
Accurate estimation of the state of charge (SOC) of lithium batteries is paramount to ensuring consistent battery pack operation. To improve SOC estimation accuracy and suppress colored noise in the system, a fractional order model based on an unscented Kalman filter and an H-infinity filter (FOUHIF) estimation algorithm was proposed. Firstly, the discrete state equation of a lithium battery was derived, as per the theory of fractional calculus. Then, the HPPC experiment and the PSO algorithm were used to identify the internal parameters of the second order RC and fractional order models, respectively. As discovered during working tests, the parameters identified via the fractional order model proved to be more accurate. Furthermore, the feasibility of using the FOUHIF algorithm was evaluated under the conditions of NEDC and UDDS, with obvious colored noise. Compared with the fractional order unscented Kalman filter (FOUKF) and integer order unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithms, th... [more]
5216. LAPSE:2023.19105
Reactivity Model as a Tool to Compare the Combustion Process in Aviation Turbine Engines Powered by Synthetic Fuels
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: combustion process, reactivity model, synthetic jet fuels, turbine engines
The paper aims to verify the thesis that the reactivity model, developed in earlier research, can be used to compare the fuels combustion processes in turbine engines, which is important for predicting the behavior of different alternative fuels in combustion process. Synthetic blending components from alcohol to jet and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids technologies and their blends with conventional jet fuel were used in tests. The undertaken laboratory tests reveal the differences between the properties of the tested fuels. Bench tests were carried out on a test rig with a miniature turbojet engine, according to authorial methodology. For each blend, on selected points of rotational speed the carbon oxide concentration in the exhaust gases was recorded. The obtained results allowed the formulation of empirical power functions describing relations between carbon oxide concentration and fuel mass flow rate. Based on general assumptions, the reactivity model was adopted to compare... [more]
5217. LAPSE:2023.19103
Reduced Scale Laboratory for Training and Research in Condition-Based Maintenance Strategies for Combustion Engine Power Plants and a Novel Method for Monitoring of Inlet and Exhaust Valves
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: condition-based maintenance, internal combustion engines, thermal power plants
This paper presents the practical aspects of development of a reduced scale laboratory and a set of monitoring tools for Internal Combustion Engines used in Thermal Power Plants. The reduced scale laboratory is based on the necessity of researchers to test new sensors and monitoring strategies that, otherwise, are seldom allowed to be installed in real plants without certification. In addition, the reduced scale laboratory allows the flexibility to insert failures on purpose, in order to evaluate the performance of new sensors/strategies in a safe and controlled environment. The paper also presents the development of a set of reduced cost sensors for monitoring in-cylinder pressure, crank angle, and the position of inlet and exhaust valves (without using ultrasound sensors, which may produce noisy readings on engines operating on gas-diesel fuel mode).
5218. LAPSE:2023.19097
Combustion Behavior and Kinetics Analysis of Isothermal Oxidized Oils from Fengcheng Extra-Heavy Oil
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: combustion behavior, extra-heavy oil, isothermal oxidized oil, kinetics analysis, low-temperature oxidation
The low-temperature oxidation (LTO) of heavy oil is of great significance for the combustion front stability, which directly influences the efficiency and safety of in-situ combustion (ISC). To provide feasible heating by artificial ignition before the implementation of ISC in the Xinjiang Fengcheng (FC) oilfields, this paper investigates the oxidation behavior of FC extra-heavy oil and its isothermal oxidized oils. Firstly, FC extra-heavy oil was subjected to isothermal oxidation experiments conducted utilizing an oxidation reactor, and the physical properties of the gaseous products and oxidized oils were analyzed. The combustion behavior of the FC extra-heavy oil and oxidized oils was then studied by non-isothermal thermogravimetry and differential scanning calorimetry. Subsequently, the Friedman and Ozawa−Flynn−Wall methods were adopted to perform kinetic analysis. Oxygen consumption was always greater than the production of CO and CO2, so oxygen addition reactions were the main pa... [more]
5219. LAPSE:2023.19093
A Novel Single-Switch High Step-Up DC−DC Converter with Three-Winding Coupled Inductor
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: high step-up DC–DC converters, photovoltaic energy, three-winding coupled inductor, zero current switching
This paper introduces a single-switch, high step-up DC−DC converter for photovoltaic applications such as power optimizers and microinverters. The proposed converter employs two voltage multipliers cells with switched capacitor and magnetic coupling techniques to achieve high voltage gain. This feature, along with a passive clamp circuit, reduces the voltage stress across the switch, allowing for the employment of low RDSon MOSFET. This leads to low conduction loss of the switch. The diodes operate with zero-current switching at their turn-off transition, eliminating the reverse recovery losses. Additionally, the switch turns on with zero-current switching, leading to insignificant switching loss associated with its turn-on transition. The operation principle and steady-state analysis are presented and validated through experimental results obtained from a 140 W prototype of the proposed converter.
5220. LAPSE:2023.19090
Impact of Time-Use Behaviour on Residential Energy Consumption in the United Kingdom
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: energy consumption, time-use behaviour, work patterns
In order to have the best possible chance of achieving ‘decent work’ and ‘climate action’ as laid forth in the UN Sustainable Development Goals, government and policy makers must pay close attention to current time-use patterns, as well as the way these might change in the near future. Here we contribute to the existing literature on time-use behaviour through a systematic exploration of the relationship between working patterns and energy consumption from the perspective of time-use. Our starting point is the premise that different work arrangements impact the timing of energy demand not only in workplaces, but also at home. Using the data from the 2014−2015 UK time-use survey, we were able to capture patterns of time-use behaviours and to assess their relationship with daily energy consumption. We propose a systematic time-use-based approach for estimating residential energy consumption with regards to activity timing, activity location, activity coordination, and appliance type. We... [more]
5221. LAPSE:2023.19089
Enhancing Stability and Robustness of State-of-Charge Estimation for Lithium-Ion Batteries by Using Improved Adaptive Kalman Filter Algorithms
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: adaptive Kalman filter, lithium-ion battery, robustness, SOC estimation, stability
The traditional Kalman filter algorithms have disadvantages of poor stability (the program cannot converge or crash), robustness (sensitive to the initial errors) and accuracy, partially resulted from the fact that noise covariance matrices in the algorithms need to be set artificially. To overcome the above problems, some adaptive Kalman filter (AKF) algorithms are studied, but the problems still remain unsolved. In this study, two improved AKF algorithms, the improved Sage-Husa and innovation-based adaptive estimation (IAE) algorithms, are proposed. Under the different operating conditions, the estimation accuracy, filter stability, and robustness of the two proposed algorithms are analyzed. Results show that the state of charge (SOC) Max error based on the improved Sage-Husa and the improved IAE is less than 3% and 1.5%, respectively, while the Max errors of the original algorithms is larger than 16% and 4% The two proposed algorithms have higher filter stability than the traditiona... [more]
5222. LAPSE:2023.19086
Experimental Characterization of Lithium-Ion Cell Strain Using Laser Sensors
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: battery swelling, experimental mechanics, state of charge, strain, thickness change modelling
The characterization of thickness change during operation of LFP/Graphite prismatic batteries is presented in this work. In this regard, current rate dependence, hysteresis behaviour between charge and discharge and correlation with phase changes are deepened. Experimental tests are carried out with a battery testing equipment correlated with optical laser sensors to evaluate swelling. Furthermore, thickness change is computed analytically with a mathematical model based on lattice parameters of the crystal structures of active materials. The results of the model are validated with experimental data. Thickness change is able to capture variations of the internal structure of the battery, referred to as phase change, characteristic of a certain state of charge. Furthermore, phase change shift is a characteristic of battery ageing. Being able to capture these properties with sensors mounted on the external surface the cell is a key feature for improving state of charge and state of healt... [more]
5223. LAPSE:2023.19082
Control-Oriented Modeling for Nonlinear MIMO Turbofan Engine Based on Equilibrium Manifold Expansion Model
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: control-oriented modeling, equilibrium manifold expansion (EME) model, multiple input multiple output (MIMO), turbofan engine
This paper investigates the control-oriented modeling for turbofan engines. The nonlinear equilibrium manifold expansion (EME) model of the multiple input multiple output (MIMO) turbofan engine is established, which can simulate the variation of high-pressure rotor speed, low-pressure rotor speed and pressure ratio of compressor with fuel flow and throat area of the nozzle. Firstly, the definitions and properties of the equilibrium manifold method are presented. Secondly, the steady-state and dynamic two-step identification method of the MIMO EME model is given, and the effects of scheduling variables and input noise on model accuracy are discussed. By selecting specific path, a small amount of dynamic data is used to identify a complete EME model. Thirdly, modeling and simulation at dynamic off-design conditions show that the EME model has model accuracy close to the nonlinear component-level (NCL) model, but the model structure is simpler and the calculation is faster than that. Fina... [more]
5224. LAPSE:2023.19081
Changes in Electricity Production from Renewable Energy Sources in the European Union Countries in 2005−2019
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: cluster analysis, concentration analysis, energy transformation, European Union, gross electricity production, k-means, renewable sources
The policy related to the use of renewable sources is a key element of the energy policy executed in the European Union (EU). One of the targets set for 2050 is to increase the share of electricity in energy consumption to 50%, and 80% of electricity is to be generated from low-carbon sources. In recent years, the EU economies have significantly modified their electricity production, which raises the question of the scale of these changes. The aim of the presented analysis is to assess changes in the use of renewable sources for electricity production in the EU countries in 2005−2019. Gini coefficient and k-mean are applied in the analysis. The conducted research shows that EU countries, in line with the energy policy assumptions, have both increased the share of renewable sources in energy production, especially in electricity production, as well as increased the diversity of used renewable sources. The results also indicate a vast diversity in terms of the use of such sources for the... [more]
5225. LAPSE:2023.19078
Forecasting for Battery Storage: Choosing the Error Metric
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: battery storage, error metrics, forecasting, loss function
We describe our approach to the Western Power Distribution (WPD) Presumed Open Data (POD) 6 MWh battery storage capacity forecasting competition, in which we finished second. The competition entails two distinct forecasting aims to maximise the daily evening peak reduction and using as much solar photovoltaic energy as possible. For the latter, we combine a Bayesian (MCMC) linear regression model with an average generation distribution. For the former, we introduce a new error metric that allows even a simple weighted average combined with a simple linear regression model to score very well using the competition performance metric.
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