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Records with Subject: Energy Systems
4976. LAPSE:2023.19960
Assessment of the Feasibility of Implementing Shower Heat Exchangers in Residential Buildings Based on Users’ Energy Saving Preferences
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Cramér’s V coefficient, drain water heat recovery, greywater heat recovery, heuristics, measure of association, Podkarpackie Voivodeship, Poland, survey research
In Poland, domestic hot water is heated mainly using fossil fuel energy sources. Such an approach results in the depletion of natural resources, pollution of the atmosphere and, consequently, irreversible changes to the climate. In response to this problem, this research identified the factors that most determine energy savings for heating water in residential buildings, as well as those that affect the choice of an alternative energy source. Additionally, the possibility of implementing shower heat exchangers in existing and newly built residential buildings was assessed, as well as society’s willingness to use such devices. The research was carried out on a sample of 462 inhabitants of the Podkarpackie Voivodeship (Poland). A questionnaire survey was used as a tool. The conducted research has shown that the perspective of environmental protection is not a sufficient motivator to save energy for heating domestic hot water. It is necessary to implement appropriate programs aimed at inf... [more]
4977. LAPSE:2023.19946
Organic Dyes in Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells Featuring Back Reflector
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: back reflector, DSSC, dye-sensitized solar cell, enediol group, light trapping, organic dye
Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) were fabricated using a photoelectrode covered by a porous layer of titanium dioxide, platinum counter electrode, iodide/triiodide electrolyte and three different dyes: phenylfluorone (PF), pyrocatechol violet (PCV) and alizarin (AL). After the adsorption of the dyes on the mesoporous TiO2 layer, the measurement of absorption spectra of all the tested dyes revealed a significant broadening of the absorption range. The positions of highest occupied molecular orbital (HOMO) and lowest occupied molecular orbital (LUMO) levels of dye molecules were determined, indicating that all three dyes are good candidates for light harvesters in DSSCs. The cells were tested under simulated solar light, and their working parameters were determined. The results showed that the implementation of the back reflector layer made of BaSO4 provided an improvement in the cell efficiency of up to 17.9% for phenylfluorone, 60% for pyrocatechol violet and 21.4% for alizarin dye.
4978. LAPSE:2023.19943
Analysis and Forecasting of PM2.5, PM4, and PM10 Dust Concentrations, Based on In Situ Tests in Hard Coal Mines
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: dust, in situ tests, prediction
The method of analyzing the results of dust concentration measurements in mine workings that was conducted within the ROCD (Reducing risks from Occupational exposure to Coal Dust) European project using the developed dust prediction algorithm is presented. The analysis was based on the measurements of average dust concentration with the use of the CIP-10R gravimetric dust meters, for the respirable PM4 dust concentration, and IPSQ analyzer for instantaneous concentration measurements (including PM2.5 dust) and with the use of Pł-2 optical dust meters for instantaneous concentration measurements of PM10 dust. Based on the analyses of the measurement results, the characteristics of the distribution of PM10, PM4, and PM2.5 dust particles were developed for the tested dust sources. Then, functional models based on power functions were developed. The determined models (functions) allow predicting the dust distribution in such conditions (and places) for which we do not have empirical data.... [more]
4979. LAPSE:2023.19940
How Much Can Small-Scale Wind Energy Production Contribute to Energy Supply in Cities? A Case Study of Berlin
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: energy transition, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, urban wind energy, wind potential assessment
In light of the global effort to limit the temperature rise, many cities have undertaken initiatives to become climate-neutral, making decentralized urban energy production more relevant. This paper addresses the potential of urban wind energy production with small wind turbines, using Berlin as an example. A complete framework from data selection to economic feasibility is constructed to enable the empirical assessment of wind energy for individual buildings and Berlin as a whole. Based on a detailed dataset of all buildings and hourly wind speed on a 1 km2 grid, the results show that multiple turbines on suitable buildings can significantly contribute to households’ energy consumption but fall short of covering the full demand. For individual households, our economic evaluation strongly recommends the self-consumption of the produced electricity. The findings suggest that while the use of small wind turbines should be continuously encouraged, exploring other renewable resources or co... [more]
4980. LAPSE:2023.19934
Energy Re-Shift for an Urbanizing World
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: alternative energy technologies, Central and Eastern Europe, energy landscape, energy mitigation, geopolitical energy change, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, rural-to-urban transition, smart city, urban energy transition, urbanization agenda
This essay considers the rural-to-urban transition and correlates it with urban energy demands. Three distinct themes are inspected and interrelated to develop awareness for an urbanizing world: internal urban design and innovation, technical transition, and geopolitical change. Data were collected on the use of energy in cities and, by extension, nation states over the last 30 years. The urban population boom continues to pressure the energy dimension with heavily weighted impacts on less developed regions. Sustainable urban energy will need to reduce resource inputs and environmental impacts and decouple economic growth from energy consumption. Fossil fuels continue to be the preferred method of energy for cities; however, an increased understanding is emerging that sustainable energy forms can be implemented as alternatives. Key to this transition will be the will to invest in renewables (i.e., solar, wind, hydro, tidal, geothermal, and biomass), efficient infrastructure, and smart... [more]
4981. LAPSE:2023.19932
Simulation of Optimal Driving for Minimization of Fuel Consumption or NOx Emissions in a Diesel Vehicle
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: autonomous vehicle, dynamic programming, fuel consumption, NOx, optimal driving, RDE
Significant reduction in fuel consumption and NOx emissions can be achieved just by changing the driving along the road. In this paper, dynamic programming is employed to find two different driving profiles optimized for fuel consumption and NOx creation minimization in a diesel vehicle. Results, show that the fuel reduction driving cycle leads to fuel savings of 4% compared with the average consumption with arbitrary driving. The NOx reduction driving profile improves the emissions of arbitrary driving by a 34.5%. NOx oriented driving profile improves the emissions of the fuel-oriented cycle by a 38% at the expense of a fuel consumption penalty of 10%. This result points out the difficulty of a simultaneous NOx and fuel consumption reduction, stressing the efforts to be done in this field during the following years. Strategies followed and conclusions drawn from this paper are relevant concerning vehicle autonomy integration.
4982. LAPSE:2023.19931
Heat Transfer Analysis for Non-Contacting Mechanical Face Seals Using the Variable-Order Derivative Approach
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: heat transfer analysis, non-contacting mechanical face seal, variable order derivative integral transform
This article presents a variable-order derivative (VOD) time fractional model for describing heat transfer in the rotor or stator in non-contacting mechanical face seals. Most theoretical studies so far have been based on the classical equation of heat transfer. Recently, constant-order derivative (COD) time fractional models have also been used. The VOD time fractional model considered here is able to provide adequate information on the heat transfer phenomena occurring in non-contacting face seals, especially during the startup. The model was solved analytically, but the characteristic features of the model were determined through numerical simulations. The equation of heat transfer in this model was analyzed as a function of time. The phenomena observed in the seal include the conduction of heat from the fluid film in the gap to the rotor and the stator, followed by convection to the fluid surrounding them. In the calculations, it is assumed that the working medium is water. The maj... [more]
4983. LAPSE:2023.19928
Research on Mechanical Defect Detection and Diagnosis Method for GIS Equipment Based on Vibration Signal
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: detection and diagnosis, gas insulated switchgear, mechanical defect, vibration
Gas insulated switchgear equipment (GIS) is widely used in power system, and more attention has been paid to discharge defects than mechanical defects. However, since mechanical defects are a major cause of the failure in GIS, it is of great significance to carry out relevant research on mechanical defects. Detection and diagnosis methods of mechanical defects based on vibration signal are studied in this paper. Firstly, vibration mechanisms of GIS are analyzed. Due to structural differences between single phase insulated type GIS and three phase insulated type GIS, there are big differences in vibration mechanisms between the two types of GISs. Secondly, experimental research on mechanical defects is carried out based on a 110 kV GIS equipment and a self-developed vibration detection system; results show that mechanical defects can be diagnosed by analyzing signal amplitude, frequency spectrum and waveform distortion rate, and a large current is more beneficial for diagnosing mechanic... [more]
4984. LAPSE:2023.19925
Biodiesel Production over Niobium-Containing Catalysts: A Review
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: biodiesel, heterogeneous catalysts, Niobium catalysts
Nowadays, the synthesis of biofuels from renewable raw materials is very popular. Among the various challenges involved in improving these processes, environmentally benign catalysts compatible with an inexpensive feedstock have become more important. Herein, we report the recent advances achieved in the development of Niobium-containing heterogeneous catalysts as well as their use in routes to produce biodiesel. The efficiency of different Niobium catalysts in esterification and transesterification reactions of lipids and oleaginous raw materials was evaluated, considering the effect of main reaction parameters such as temperature, time, catalyst load, and oil:alcohol molar ratio on the biodiesel yield. The catalytic performance of Niobium compounds was discussed considering the characterization data obtained by different techniques, including NH3-TPD, BET, and Pyr-FT-IR analysis. The high catalytic activity is attributed to its inherent properties, such as the active sites distributi... [more]
4985. LAPSE:2023.19924
Influence of Swirl Clocking on the Performance of Turbine Stage with Three-Dimensional Nozzle Guide Vane
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: lean angle, stage efficiency, sweep angle, total pressure loss
The effect of the swirl clocking on three-dimensional nozzle guide vane (NGV) is investigated using computational fluid dynamics. The research reports the loss characteristics of leaned and swept NGVs and the influence of swirl clocking. The three-dimensional NGVs are built by stacking the same 2D profile along different linear axes, characterized by different angles with respect to the normal or radial direction: ε = −12° ~ +12° for the leaned and γ = −5° ~ +10° for the swept airfoils. A total of 40 models are analyzed to study the effects of lean and sweep on aerodynamic performance. To investigate the influence of swirl clocking, the analysis cases include the center of the swirl that was positioned at the leading edge as well as the middle of the passage. The prediction results show that the relationship of the changes in mass flow rate and throat area are not monotonic. Further observation confirms the redistribution of loading and flow angle under different lean and sweep angles;... [more]
4986. LAPSE:2023.19919
Smart and Renewable Energy System to Power a Temperature-Controlled Greenhouse
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: battery storage systems, fuzzy logic controller, greenhouse, Matlab, multi-source power systems, PV plant, SEPIC converter, Simulink, wind plant
This paper presents the modeling and simulation of a Multi-Source Power System (MSPS)—composed of two renewable energy sources and supported by a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)—to supply the ventilation and heating system for a temperature-controlled agricultural greenhouse. The first one is a photovoltaic (PV) generator connected to a DC/AC inverter and the second one is a wind turbine connected to a Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG). The temperature contribution in the model of the PV generator is deeply studied. A Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) control based on fuzzy logic is used to drive a SEPIC converter to feed the maximum power to the greenhouse actuators. The operation of the actuators (ventilation and heating systems), on the basis of the mismatch between the internal temperature and the reference one, is controlled by a PI controller optimized by fuzzy logic, for more robust results. The simulation of the system is carried out in a Matlab/Simulink envi... [more]
4987. LAPSE:2023.19911
Water and Energy Efficiency Assessment in Urban Green Spaces
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: irrigation efficiency, landscape water requirement, urban green spaces, water balance, water–energy balance
Urban green spaces can be intensive water and energy consumers in the cities, particularly in water scarce regions. Though a very efficient use of such resources is necessary, tools for assessing both water and energy consumption and efficiency are not available. In this paper, a new methodology based on water and energy balances is developed for assessing the water-use and energy efficiency in urban green spaces. The proposed balances, adapted from those developed for water supply systems, are specifically tailored for accounting for urban green spaces specificities, namely, landscape water requirements, other uses besides irrigation and over irrigation water losses. The methodology is demonstrated in two case studies of different nature and characteristics: a modern garden with a smart irrigation system and an urban park with traditional irrigation system. The results show that the developed water balances allow to estimate and assess the irrigation efficiency over the years and to a... [more]
4988. LAPSE:2023.19908
Numerical Analysis of Minimum Ground Temperature for Heat Extraction in Horizontal Ground Heat Exchangers
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: ground heat exchanger, ground temperature, heat extraction, heat pump
In this work, numerical simulation calculations were performed to investigate the minimum ground temperature that occurs when extracting thermal energy in a horizontal ground heat exchanger system in the Central European climate. The influence of ground thermal conductivity, heat flux extracted from the ground, periodic interruptions in the operation of the heat exchanger, periodic supply of heat energy to the ground, relative humidity of the ambient air, evaporation rate coefficient, and convective heat transfer coefficient on the ground minimum temperature were investigated. Based on the simulation, it was found that the high value of ground thermal conductivity favorably affects the operation of the installation with a ground heat exchanger. Both the reduction of the maximum heat flux taken from the ground, as well as periodic interruptions in the operation of the exchanger effectively protects the ground against excessive cooling. Further, it was found that heat supply to the groun... [more]
4989. LAPSE:2023.19903
Aging Behavior of Lithium Titanate Battery under High-Rate Discharging Cycle
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: aging mechanisms, cycle life, high-rate discharging, lithium titanate battery
The high-rate discharging performance of a lithium titanate battery is one of its main properties. In conditions that require ultra-high-rate discharging, a lithium titanate battery can be discharged continuously at a current of 50 C (50 times of its maximum capacity) or higher. In this paper, we take cylindrical steel shell lithium titanate cells as the research object and perform aging cycles at 66 C on these cells. The ultra-high-rate discharging cycles cause a rapid high-power capacity fading while the available capacity at normal current rate is not affected. The capacity at 66 C decreases to 80% of initial value in 10 cycles. This paper also analyzes the aging process of a lithium titanate battery at high-rate discharging with incremental capacity (IC) analysis, and presents the aging behavior of lithium titanate battery qualitatively, which is inconsistent with existing research. We attribute the aging mechanism of ultra-high-rate discharging cycles to the decrease of ionic mobi... [more]
4990. LAPSE:2023.19902
Establishment of a Real-Time Simulation of a Marine High-Pressure Common Rail System
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: closed-loop control, high-pressure common rail, marine diesel engine, real-time simulation model
In this paper, the high-pressure common rail system of the marine diesel engine is taken as case study to establish a real-time simulation model of the high-pressure common rail system that can be used as the controlled object of the control system. On the premise of ensuring accuracy, the real-time simulation should also respond quickly to instructions issued by the control system. The development of the real-time simulation is based on the modular modeling method, and the high-pressure common rail system is divided into submodels, including the high-pressure oil pump, common rail tube, injector, and mass conversion. The submodels are built using the “surrogate model” method, which is mainly composed of MAP data and empirical formulas. The data used to establish the real-time simulation are not only from the empirical research into the high-pressure common rail system, but also from simulations of the high-pressure common rail system undertaken in AEMSim. The data obtained from this r... [more]
4991. LAPSE:2023.19901
Applying Solar PV to Heat Pump and Storage Technologies in Australian Houses
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: heat pumps, self-consumption, solar photovoltaics, space cooling, space heating, thermal storage
Innovative mechanical services coupled with renewable energy systems are crucial for achieving a net zero energy goal for houses. Conventional systems tend to be vastly oversized because they lack the means to buffer energy flows and are based on peak loads. This paper presents an approach to achieve a net zero energy goal for houses by using a solar PV system, heat pumps, and thermal and electrical storage batteries, all off-the-shelf. Constraining one part of the system and then showing how to manage energy storage and flow is a paradigm shift in sizing. The design is for a modest-sized house built in Melbourne, Australia. The output of a solar photovoltaic array drives a small-scale heat pump to heat water, buffering its energy in a thermal battery to energise a radiant space heating system. Space cooling is provided by a separate heat pump. Through energy storage in electrical and thermal batteries, it is possible to meet the electricity, heating and cooling needs of the house for... [more]
4992. LAPSE:2023.19900
Analysis of the Possibility of Management of Curly-Leaf Pondweed for Energetic Purposes
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: biochemical analysis, biogas, Biomass, combustion, curly-leaf pondweed, elemental analysis, energy use, lake restoration, proximate analysis
The possibilities of using curly-leaf pondweed for energy purposes were analyzed. This plant contributes to overgrowth of water reservoirs, causing their eutrophication. The plants examined were from two different water reservoirs: Lake Winiary (Gniezno) and Lake Rusalka (Poznan). On the basis of the investigations, it was determined that it is possible to use curly-leaf pondweed for energy purposes, both in the combustion method and in the biomethane fermentation process. Studies were performed to assess the suitability of the plants for combustion as a solid biofuel and studies on the use of pondweed as a fermenter feedstock. The calorimetric study showed the possibility of obtaining more energy for the curly-leaf pondweed coming from Lake Rusalka. The heat of combustion of these plants was 13.95 MJ·kg−1 (Winiary pondweed) and 9.10 MJ·kg−1 (Rusalka pondweed). On the other hand, the calorific value of these plants was 12.60 MJ·kg−1 (Winiary pondweed) and 7.80 MJ·kg−1 (Rusalka pondweed... [more]
4993. LAPSE:2023.19897
Application of ORC in a Distributed Integrated Energy System Driven by Deep and Shallow Geothermal Energy
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: distributed integrated energy system, efficiency improvement, geothermal energy, heat pump, ORC
This study presents a distributed integrated energy system driven by deep and shallow geothermal energy based on forward and reverse cycle for flexible generation of cold, heat and electricity in different scenarios. By adjusting the strategy, the system can meet the demand of heat-electricity in winter, cool-electricity in summer and electricity in transition seasons. The thermodynamic analysis shows that the thermal efficiency of the integrated energy system in the heating and power generation mode is 16% higher than that in the cooling and power generation mode or the single power generation mode. Meanwhile, the annual heat-obtaining quantity of the system is reduced by 11% compared with that of the independent power generation system, which effectively alleviates the imbalance of the temperature field of the shallow geothermal reservoir. In terms of net power generation, the integrated energy system can generate approximately 31% more electricity than the conventional independent c... [more]
4994. LAPSE:2023.19896
Separation of the Mixture 2-Propanol + Water by Heterogeneous Azeotropic Distillation with Isooctane as an Entrainer
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: 2-propanol, alcohols, azeotropes, Biofuels, dehydration, heterogeneous azeotropic distillation, isooctane, Water
Advanced processes, which are alternatives to ordinary distillation, are essential to dehydrate azeotropic alcoholic mixtures for biofuel production. In that regard, this work focuses on the analysis of heterogeneous azeotropic distillation for the separation of a 2-propanol + water mixture in order to recover the alcohol with a sufficiently low water content. By comparing the performances of various entrainers on the basis of ternary maps, isooctane was selected for further process analysis. An advantage it poses is related to the fact that traces of it within the recovered dehydrated alcohol are highly welcome with a view to its subsequent use as a fuel. Aspen Plus® V11 software was employed for the simulation of the process, thus filling the gap existing in the literature due to the lack of studies on the process analysis of the heterogeneous azeotropic distillation of the 2-propanol + water system using isooctane as an entrainer.
4995. LAPSE:2023.19894
Analysis of Expected Skin Burns from Accepted Process Flare Heat Radiation Levels to Public Passersby
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Modelling, natural gas flaring, passersby, radiant heat exposure, skin burns
Hot flaring, even from quite high flare stacks, may result in significant heat radiation outside a facility to, e.g., public roads where random passersby may be exposed. The present study suggests a novel method for analyzing a typical flare heat radiation exposure and investigates skin burns that may be inflicted on an exposed person if a facility needs to depressurize in an emergency situation. A typical radiation field from an ignited natural gas vent was taken as the boundary condition, and these values were compared to radiation levels mentioned by the American Petroleum Institute (API 521), e.g., 1.58 kW/m2 and above. Due to facility perimeter fences along roads in larger industry areas, it was assumed that an exposed person may flee along a road rather than in the ideal direction away from the flare. It was assumed that naked skin, e.g., a bare shoulder or a bald head is exposed. The Pennes bioheat equation was numerically solved for the skin layers while the person escapes alon... [more]
4996. LAPSE:2023.19890
Differences of Main Enrichment Factors of S1l11-1 Sublayer Shale Gas in Southern Sichuan Basin
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: gas content, inorganic pore, organic pore, S1l11-1 sublayer
In this study, shale cores from 20 wells in the S1l11-1 sublayer of Longmaxi Formation buried in shallow shale (3500 m) in the southern Sichuan Basin, China were collected to compare their pore structures and gas-bearing properties using multiple experiments. Results showed that the deep layer has relatively lower brittle mineral content, which is disadvantageous in terms of the higher requirements it imposes on hydraulic fracturing. Results also showed that the most important factor controlling the differential enrichment of S1l11-1 shale gas in southern Sichuan Basin is porosity. Moreover, the porosity composition of shallow shale and deep shale has significant differences: the porosity of shallow shale is dominated by organic pores, while for deep shale, both organic and inorganic pores are important. The inorganic pores provide significant storage space for free gas in deep shale; their contribution warrants more attention. We also found that the difference in organic porosity of t... [more]
4997. LAPSE:2023.19888
Assessment of Dependency of Unsteady Onset Flow and Resultant Tidal Turbine Fatigue Loads on Measurement Position at a Tidal Site
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: fatigue loading, tidal turbine, turbulence
This work determines the variation in the fatigue loading on a tidal turbine at two depth positions and two different locations within a site. Site data were obtained at the European Marine Energy Centre, EMEC, test facility in Scotland, which has been compiled at the University of Edinburgh. The turbine modelled is the 18m Diameter DEEP-gen 1MW horizontal axis turbine. A blade element method is combined with a synthetic turbulence inflow to determine forces along the blade over a period of five tidal cycles. The focus is on establishing the difference between the loads at one tidal site, with an emphasis on the variety of turbulent conditions, with the onset flow fluctuations as great as 17% and the average integral lengthscales varying from 11 to 14 m at hub height. Fatigue loading is assessed using damage equivalent loads, with a 30% variation between turbine positions and 32% between turbine locations within a site, for one design case. When long term loading is assessed, a 41% dif... [more]
4998. LAPSE:2023.19885
Biomonitoring Studies and Preventing the Formation of Biogenic H2S in the Wierzchowice Underground Gas Storage Facility
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: formation waters collected, hydrogen sulphide, Natural Gas, organic sulphur compounds, sulphate reducing bacteria, underground gas storage
The article discusses the results of biomonitoring research at the Underground Gas Storage (UGS). Hydrogen sulphide, as one of the products of microbiological reaction and transformation, as well as a product of chemical reactions in rocks, is a subject of interest for global petroleum companies. The materials used in this research work were formation waters and stored natural gas. The biomonitoring of reservoir waters and cyclical analyses of the composition of gas stored at UGS Wierzchowice enabled the assessment of the microbiological condition of the reservoir environment and individual storage wells in subsequent years of operation. Investigations of the formation water from individual wells of the UGS Wierzchowice showed the presence of sulphate reducing bacteria bacteria (SRB), such as Desulfovibrio and Desulfotomaculum genera and bacteria that oxidize sulphur compounds. In the last cycles of UGS Wierzchowice, the content of hydrogen sulphide and sulphides in the reservoir water... [more]
4999. LAPSE:2023.19879
Projection of Post-Pandemic Italian Industrial Production through Vector AutoRegressive Models
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: drivers for energy service demand, industrial production projections, long-term effects of COVID-19 pandemic, TIMES-Italy, Vector AutoRegressive model
Energy system models for the analysis of future scenarios are mainly driven by the set of energy service demands that define the broad outlines of socio-economic development throughout the model time horizon. Here, the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the drivers of the industrial production in six energy-intensive subsectors are addressed using Vector AutoRegressive models. The model results are computed either considering or not considering the effects of the pandemic. The comparison to established pre-pandemic trends allows for validating the robustness of the selected model. The anticipated effect of the pandemic to 2040 shows a long-term reduction by 3% to 10%, according to the different subsector, in the industrial energy service demand. When the computed service demands are used as input to the TIMES-Italy model, which shows good capability to reproduce the energy consumption of the industrial sectors in the period 2006−2020, the impact of the pandemic on energy con... [more]
5000. LAPSE:2023.19876
Driving Factors and Future Prediction of Carbon Emissions in the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ Countries
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Belt and Road Initiative, carbon emission, driving factors, SSP scenario
‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (B&R) countries play critical roles in mitigating global carbon emission under the Paris agreement, but their driving factors and feasibility to reduce carbon emissions remain unclear. This paper aims to identify the main driving factors (MDFs) behind carbon emissions and predict the future emissions trajectories of the B&R countries under different social-economic pathways based on the extended STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model. The empirical results indicate that GDP per capita and energy consumption structure are the MDFs that promote carbon emission, while energy intensity improvement is the MDF that inhibits carbon emission. Population, as another MDF, has a dual impact across countries. The carbon emissions in all B&R countries are predicted to increase from SSP1 to SSP3, but emissions trajectories vary across countries. Under the SSP1 scenario, carbon emissions in over 60% of B&R countries can pea... [more]
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