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Records Added in April 2023
Records added in April 2023
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9201. LAPSE:2023.26287
A Multi-Criteria Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Nitrogen and Sulfur Fertilization in Different Cultivars of Winter Rapeseed—Productivity, Economic and Energy Balance
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Biosystems
Keywords: biomass yield and quality, Brassica napus L., cultivar, energy balance, fertilization, profitability
This article presents the results of a three-year experiment involving a multi-criteria evaluation (productivity, economic and energy balance) of the effectiveness of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) fertilization in different cultivars of winter oilseed rape (open-pollinated, semi-dwarf hybrid, long-stem hybrid) grown in north-eastern (NE) Poland. The yield of the semi-dwarf cultivar was 11% lower than the yield of the long-stem hybrid cultivar and 18% higher than the yield of the open-pollinated cultivar. In all cultivars, N fertilization improved yields up to a rate of 180 kg ha−1 and up to a rate of 230 kg ha−1 in years with low precipitation in spring and summer. Seed yield increased in all cultivars in response to S fertilization at 40 kg ha−1. Higher rates of N fertilizer decreased the content of crude fat and glucosinolates (GLS) and increased the concentration of total protein in all cultivars. Sulfur fertilization increased the content of total protein (in long-stem cultivars) and... [more]
9202. LAPSE:2023.26286
A Novel Switching Table for a Modified Three-Level Inverter-Fed DTC Drive with Torque and Flux Ripple Minimization
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: direct torque control, neutral-point-clamped (NPC), switching table, three-level inverter, torque ripple, total harmonic distortion
The use of a direct torque control (DTC) drive is a well-known control strategy that is applied frequently to induction motors. Although torque and stator flux ripples are major disadvantages of this approach, using a higher-level inverter helps to overcome these issues. In this paper, we propose a novel switching table with a modified control strategy for a three-level inverter to achieve ripple minimization, as well as smooth switching and neutral point balance; the latter features are generally ignored in many works. The proposed model is compared with a conventional DTC and an improved three-level inverter-fed voltage vector synthesis model in the Matlab/Simulink® environment with low, normal, and high-speed operation under load torque disturbances. The performance indexes and the comparative results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed model in reducing the torque and stator flux ripples by up to 70% and 78%, respectively, generating a lower total harmonic distortion (THD%) i... [more]
9203. LAPSE:2023.26285
Development of a Heuristic Control Algorithm for Detection and Regeneration of CO Poisoned LT-PEMFC Stacks in Stationary Applications
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: air bleed, carbon monoxide, CO detection, CO poisoning, LT-PEMFC, regeneration, short stack
Combined heat and power (CHP) systems based on low-temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells (LT-PEMFC) technology are suspected to CO poisoning on the anode side. The fuel cell CO sensitivity increases with ongoing operation time leading to high performance losses. In this paper we present the development of detection and regeneration algorithm based on air bleed to minimize voltage losses due to CO poisoning. Therefore, CO sensitivity tests with two short stacks with different operation time will be analyzed and the test results of aged membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) will be presented for the first time. Additionally, the first results of the algorithm in operation will be shown.
9204. LAPSE:2023.26284
Solution-Processed Titanium Oxide for Rear Contact Improvement in Heterojunction Solar Cells
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: chemical grown, electron-selective, heterojunction solar cell, surface passivation, titanium oxide
In this work, we demonstrated a heterojunction Si solar cell utilizing chemically grown titanium oxide (TiOx) as an electron-selective contact layer at its rear surface. With TiOx, the rear surface was passivated to reduce carrier recombination. The reverse saturation current, which is an indicator of carrier recombination, exhibited a 4.4-fold reduction after placing a TiOx layer on the rear surface. With reduced recombination, the open-circuit voltage increased from 433 mV to 600 mV and consequently, the power conversion efficiency (PCE) increased from 9.57 to 14.70%. By X-ray photoemission spectroscopy, the surface passivation was attributed to a silicon oxide interfacial layer formed during the chemical growth process. This passivation results in a 625 cm/s surface recombination velocity for the TiOx-passivated Si surface, which is 2.4 times lower than the sample without TiOx, ensuring the carriers pass through the rear contact without extensive recombination. According to these re... [more]
9205. LAPSE:2023.26283
Studies on the Efficiency of the Impact of Paraffin Inhibitors on Lowering the WAT Temperature and Reducing the Amount of Paraffin Deposit
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: paraffin inhibitors, paraffin wax deposition, paraffins, WAT, WPC
This paper discusses the issues of the impact of pressure and temperature on the precipitation of paraffin deposits from reservoir fluids in the presence of previously prepared paraffin inhibitors. Using a properly modified PVT apparatus, the temperature of the beginning of paraffin precipitation (wax appearance temperature—WAT) has been determined, below which the solid paraffin phase was captured on a specialized filter in various temperatures. Based on the conducted experiments, a boundary has been established separating the paraffin area (the presence of paraffins as their solid phase) from an area without paraffin. Measurements of the amount of paraffin using the filter allowed the determination of the WPC (wax precipitation curve), due to which additional data is provided regarding the amount of precipitated paraffin deposit below the WAT. The developed methodology enables to conduct the measurements within a wide range of pressures using the sample saturated with reservoir gas,... [more]
9206. LAPSE:2023.26282
Variable Structure Control of a Small Ducted Wind Turbine in the Whole Wind Speed Range Using a Luenberger Observer
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: back-to-back converter topology, ducted wind turbines, energy management, Luenberger observer, soft stall method, variable-speed fixed-pitch wind turbines, wind energy conversion system
This paper proposes a new variable structure control scheme for a variable-speed, fixed-pitch ducted wind turbine, equipped with an annular, brushless permanent-magnet synchronous generator, considering a back-to-back power converter topology. The purpose of this control scheme is to maximise the aerodynamic power over the entire wind speed range, considering the mechanical safety limits of the ducted wind turbine. The ideal power characteristics are achieved with the design of control laws aimed at performing the maximum power point tracking control in the low wind speeds region, and the constant speed, power, and torque control in the high wind speed region. The designed control laws utilize a Luenberger observer for the estimation of the aerodynamic torque and a shallow neural network for wind speed estimation. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified through tests in a laboratory setup. Moreover, a comparison with other solutions from the literature allowed us to bette... [more]
9207. LAPSE:2023.26281
Testing System for the On-Site Checking of Magneto-Thermal Switches with Arc Fault Detection
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: AFDD, arc fault detection devices, surge arrester
Arcing is a harmful condition that can lead to electrical fires. The U.S. National Electrical Code requires the installation of electric arc breakers in all residential areas. However, such devices can fail, and therefore, may not work when needed. At present, there are no tests to confirm the correct operation of this type of device. This study aimed to propose an experimental test method to verify the proper functioning of magneto-thermal switches with an electric arc protection function for the occurrence of arc faults. The results show that the proposed method adequately detected the correct operations and tripping time by using different surge suppressors. The proposed system lays the foundations for a portable test system for the periodic checking of electrical systems in which arc fault detection devices (AFDDs) are installed.
9208. LAPSE:2023.26280
A Mini Review on Doped Nickel-Based Electrocatalysts for Hydrogen Evolution Reaction
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: electrochemical hydrogen evolution reaction, heteroatom doping, nickel-based catalysts
The energy crisis and environmental pollution have attracted much attention and have promoted researches on clean and sustainable hydrogen energy resources. With the help of highly active and stable transition metal nickel-based catalysts, the production of hydrogen from water electrolysis from electrolyzed water has become an inexpensive and efficient strategy for generating hydrogen energy. In recent years, heteroatom doping has been found to be an effective strategy to improve the electrocatalytic hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) performances of nickel-based catalysts in acidic, neutral, and alkaline media. This review will highlight many recent works of inexpensive and readily available heteroatom-doped nickel-based HER catalysts. The evaluation methods for the performances of HER catalyst will be briefly described, and the role of heteroatom doping and its application in nickel-based catalyst will be summarized. This article will also point out some heteroatom doping strategies,... [more]
9209. LAPSE:2023.26279
Study of the Effect of Movable Water Saturation on Gas Production in Tight Sandstone Gas Reservoirs
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: gas drive water, movable water saturation, NMR, tight sandstone gas reservoir, water production
The movable water saturation of tight sandstone reservoirs is an important parameter in characterizing water production capacity, and there is a great need to understand the relationship between movable water saturation and water production characteristics. However, movable water behavior in this context remains unclear. In this study, four groups of tight sandstone cores from the Sulige gas field are measured to understand the movable water saturation characteristics. Then, the effects such as reservoir micropore throat, clay mineral and physical properties on movable water saturation are analyzed, and the movable water saturation and water production characteristics are discussed. The results show that higher movable water saturation will result in a greater amount of water in the gas drive. There is a critical pressure difference of the gas drive, and a large amount of movable water will flow out. Movable water saturation is independent of the porosity, permeability and initial wate... [more]
9210. LAPSE:2023.26278
DC Current Interruption Based on Vacuum Arc Impacted by Ultra-Fast Transverse Magnetic Field
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: current interruption, DC circuit breaker, magnetic field, plasma physics, vacuum arc, vacuum circuit breaker, vacuum interrupter, zero-crossing
In this paper, the effect of an external ultrafast transverse magnetic field (UFTMF) on a vacuum arc in the diffused mode has been studied. According to the results of studies, a novel approach for making a zero-crossing in a DC arc current has been presented. Plasma voltage fluctuations of the vacuum arc, which are caused by UFTMF, have been investigated via finite element simulation and two-fluid description of plasma physics. By making an appropriate UFTMF through an external circuit, the arc current can be commuted successfully from the vacuum interrupter (VI) to a parallel capacitor and charge it up. In this way, a zero-crossing in the arc current can be achieved, and the current will be interrupted by the VI. Simulation results, which are supporting physical backgrounds for this analysis, have been presented in this paper while technological issues for industrial implementation of this concept have been discussed in detail.
9211. LAPSE:2023.26277
Probabilistic Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Hierarchical Trending Method
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: distribution networks, hierarchical trending method, prediction interval, probabilistic forecasting, spatial load forecasting
The efficient spatial load forecasting (SLF) is of high interest for the planning of power distribution networks, mainly in areas with high rates of urbanization. The ever-present spatial error of SLF arises the need for probabilistic assessment of the long-term point forecasts. This paper introduces a probabilistic SLF framework with prediction intervals, which is based on a hierarchical trending method. More specifically, the proposed hierarchical trending method predicts the magnitude of future electric loads, while the planners’ knowledge is used to improve the allocation of future electric loads, as well as to define the year of introduction of new loads. Subsequently, the spatial error is calculated by means of root-mean-squared error along the service territory, based on which the construction of the prediction intervals of the probabilistic forecasting part takes place. The proposed probabilistic SLF is introduced to serve as a decision-making tool for regional planners and dis... [more]
9212. LAPSE:2023.26276
Data Driven Robust Energy and Reserve Dispatch Based on a Nonparametric Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: data driven robust optimization, energy and reserve dispatch, nonparametric Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model, polyhedral uncertainty set
Traditional robust optimization methods use box uncertainty sets or gamma uncertainty sets to describe wind power uncertainty. However, these uncertainty sets fail to utilize wind forecast error probability information and assume that the wind forecast error is symmetrical and independent. This assumption is not reasonable and makes the optimization results conservative. To avoid such conservative results from traditional robust optimization methods, in this paper a novel data driven optimization method based on the nonparametric Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model (DPGMM) was proposed to solve energy and reserve dispatch problems. First, we combined the DPGMM and variation inference algorithm to extract the GMM parameter information embedded within historical data. Based on the parameter information, a data driven polyhedral uncertainty set was proposed. After constructing the uncertainty set, we solved the robust energy and reserve problem. Finally, a column and constraint gener... [more]
9213. LAPSE:2023.26275
Multi-Time Scale Spillover Effect of International Oil Price Fluctuation on China’s Stock Markets
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: crude oil price, spillover effect, stock market, t-Copula model, wavelet analysis
With the continuous increase of China’s foreign-trade dependence on crude oil and the accelerating integration of the international crude oil market and the Chinese finance market, the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on China’s stock markets increasingly attracts the attention of the public. In order to explore the impact of international oil price fluctuation on China’s stock markets and the time-varying spillover differences of industry sectors, this study proposes three research hypotheses and constructs a multi-time scale analysis framework based on wavelet analysis and a time-varying t-Copula model. In this paper, we use the Shanghai Composite Index as the representative of a general trend of the stock market, and we use the stock index of the China Securities Industry as the counterpart of industrial sectors. Based on the data from 5 January 2005 to 31 May 2020, this paper measures and analyzes the spillover effect of international oil price fluctuation on... [more]
9214. LAPSE:2023.26274
Cumulative Fatigue Damage Balancing for Modular Multilevel Converter
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: cumulative fatigue damage, lifetime balancing control, modular multilevel converter, reliability improvement, thermal stresses
With many advantages, modular multilevel convert (MMC) has been extensively used in high and medium voltage power transmission projects. The thermal performance and reliability of components in MMC are key issues in system operation. However, in the current research on the reliability of MMC components, there are few methods to improve service lifetime expectancy of the components. This paper proposes a balance control algorithm, based on the cumulative fatigue damage of components, feedback to the control terminal for allocating the sub-module (SM) operating state and generating trigger pulses. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified and discussed in case studies. It is found that this algorithm is able to improve the aging degree of components in the meanwhile, the improvement in MMC reliability comes at the cost of slightly increasing capacitor voltage fluctuations and total harmonic distortion (THD). Due to the limitation of capacitor thermal performance, S... [more]
9215. LAPSE:2023.26273
Annual Variation in Energy Consumption of an Electric Vehicle Used for Commuting
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: electric vehicle, energetic macroscopic representation, energy consumption, heating ventilation air conditioning, Simulation, traction
The energy consumption of an electric vehicle is primarily due to the traction subsystem and the comfort subsystem. For a regular trip, the traction energy can be relatively constant but the comfort energy has variation depending on seasonal temperatures. In order to plan the annual charging operation of an eco-campus, a simulation tool is developed for an accurate determination of the consumption of an electric vehicle throughout year. The developed model has been validated by comparison with experimental measurement of a real vehicle on a real driving cycle. Different commuting trips are analyzed over a complete year. For the considered city in France (Lille), the comfort energy consumption has an overconsumption up to 33% in winter due to heating, and only 15% in summer due to air conditioning. The urban commuting driving cycle is more affected by the comfort subsystem than extra-urban trips.
9216. LAPSE:2023.26272
Management of Radioactive Waste Containing Graphite: Overview of Methods
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: graphite, graphite processing, irradiated graphite, radioactive waste, spent TRISO fuel, waste disposal, waste management
Since the beginning of the nuclear industry, graphite has been widely used as a moderator and reflector of neutrons in nuclear power reactors. Some reactors are relatively old and have already been shut down. As a result, a large amount of irradiated graphite has been generated. Although several thousand papers in the International Nuclear Information Service (INIS) database have discussed the management of radioactive waste containing graphite, knowledge of this problem is not common. The aim of the paper is to present the current status of the methods used in different countries to manage graphite-containing radioactive waste. Attention has been paid to the methods of handling spent TRISO fuel after its discharge from high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR) reactors.
9217. LAPSE:2023.26271
Double Linker Triphenylamine Dyes for Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: atomistic modelling, co-sensitization, DFT, light harvesting, MD, solar energy, surface engineering, synthesis, TDDFT
Most organic dyes synthesized for dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC) use a single linker group to bind to the metal oxide photo-anode. Here we describe the synthesis and testing of two new triphenylamine dyes containing either two carboxylic acids 5-[2-(4-diphenylamino-phenyl)-vinyl]-isophthalic acid (10) or two cyanoacrylic acids (2Z, 2′Z)-3, 3′-(5-((E)-4-(diphenylamino) styryl)-1, 3-phenylene) bis (2-cyanoacrylic acid) (8) as linker groups. Full characterization data are reported for these dyes and their synthetic intermediates. DSC devices have been prepared from these new dyes either by passive or fast dyeing and the dyes have also been tested in co-sensitized DSC devices leading to a PCE (η = 5.4%) for the double cyanoacrylate linker dye (8) co-sensitized with D149. The dye:TiO2 surface interactions and dye excitations are interpreted using three modelling methods: density functional theory (at 0 K); molecular dynamics (at 298 K); time dependent density functional theory. The modell... [more]
9218. LAPSE:2023.26270
Detection Technology for Battery Safety in Electric Vehicles: A Review
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: detecting technology, electrical safety test, environmental safety test, EV, LIB, mechanical safety test
The safety of electric vehicles (EVs) has aroused widespread concern and attention. As the core component of an EV, the power battery directly affects the performance and safety. In order to improve the safety of power batteries, the internal failure mechanism and behavior characteristics of internal short circuit (ISC) and thermal runaway (TR) in extreme cases need to be tested and studied. The safety of lithium ion batteries (LIBs) has become a research hotspot for many scholars. With unreasonable misuse or abuse of lithium ion batteries, it is easy to cause internal short circuits, resulting in thermal runaway, which poses a great threat to the safety of the whole vehicle. This comprehensive review aims to describe the research progress of safety testing methods and technologies of lithium ion batteries under conditions of mechanical, electrical, and thermal abuse, and presents existing problems and future research directions.
9219. LAPSE:2023.26269
Natural Fractures in Carbonate Basement Reservoirs of the Jizhong Sub-Basin, Bohai Bay Basin, China: Key Aspects Favoring Oil Production
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: basement reservoir, carbonate rock, influencing factor, Jizhong Sub-basin, natural fracture, oil production
Analysis of natural fractures is essential for understanding the heterogeneity of basement reservoirs with carbonate rocks since natural fractures significantly control key attributes such as porosity and permeability. Based on the observations and analyses of outcrops, cores, borehole image logs, and thin sections from the Mesoproterozoic to Lower Paleozoic in the Jizhong Sub-Basin, natural fractures are found to be abundant in genetic types (tectonic, pressure-solution, and dissolution) in these reservoirs. Tectonic fractures are dominant in such reservoirs, and lithology, mechanical stratigraphy, and faults are major influencing factors for the development of fractures. Dolostones with higher dolomite content are more likely to have tectonic fractures than limestones with higher calcite content. Most tectonic fractures are developed inside mechanical units and terminate at the unit interface at nearly perpendicular or high angles. Also, where a thinner mechanical unit is observed, t... [more]
9220. LAPSE:2023.26268
Two-Stage Fuzzy Logic Inference Algorithm for Maximizing the Quality of Performance under the Operational Constraints of Power Grid in Electric Vehicle Parking Lots
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: electric vehicles, fuzzy logic inference, parking lot, quality of experience, quality of performance
The widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has entailed the need for the parking lot operators to satisfy the charging and discharging requirements of all the EV owners during their parking duration. Meanwhile, the operational constraints of the power grids limit the amount of simultaneous charging and discharging of all EVs. This affects the EV owner’s quality of experience (QoE) and thereby reducing the quality of performance (QoP) for the parking lot operators. The QoE represents a certain percentage of the EV battery required for its next trip distance; whereas, the QoP refers to the ratio of EVs with satisfied QoE to the total number of EVs during the operational hours of the parking lot. This paper proposes a two-stage fuzzy logic inference based algorithm (TSFLIA) to schedule the charging and discharging operations of EVs in such a way that maximizes the QoP for the parking lot operators under the operational constraints of the power grid. The first stage fuzzy inference... [more]
9221. LAPSE:2023.26267
Introduction to the Special Issue: Policy for Low-Carbon Transformations
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Gradual changes in energy and mobility systems in recent decades have triggered new and significant policy challenges [...]
9222. LAPSE:2023.26266
Genetic Algorithm Approach for Gains Selection of Induction Machine Extended Speed Observer
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: gains selection, Genetic Algorithm, induction machine, speed observer, stability
The subject of this paper is gains selection of an extended induction machine speed observer. A high number of gains makes manual gains selection difficult and due to nonlinear equations of the observer, well-known methods of gains selection for linear systems cannot be applied. A method based on genetic algorithms has been proposed instead. Such an approach requires multiple fitness function calls; therefore, using a quality index based on simulations makes gains selection a time-consuming process. To find a fitness function that evaluates, in a short time, quality indices based on poles placement have been proposed. As the observer is nonlinear, equations describing the observer dynamics have been linearized. The relationship between poles placement and real dynamic properties has been shown. A series of studies has been performed to investigate the influence of the operating point of the machine on the dynamics of the observer. It has been proven that rotor speed has a significant i... [more]
9223. LAPSE:2023.26265
Carbon Taxes and the Composition of New Passenger Car Sales in Europe
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: automobile industry, carbon tax, climate policy, GMM, new passenger car sales, socioeconomic factors
This paper examines the effectiveness of implementing carbon taxes to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from transport. Using the system Generalized Method of Moments estimator, we utilize cross-country analysis for the first time to study the impact of carbon taxes on the composition of petrol versus diesel passenger cars sold in 17 countries over the period 2013−2017. The results suggest that increasing carbon taxes affects consumer behavior, causing a significant shift from petrol to diesel fuel vehicles, controlling for factors such as the price of passenger cars, fuel price, interest rates, income level, population density, inflation, and vehicle stock.
9224. LAPSE:2023.26264
A Photovoltaic-Fed Z-Source Inverter Motor Drive with Fault-Tolerant Capability for Rural Irrigation
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: fault-tolerant, induction motor drive, Insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT), inverter, open-circuit fault, photovoltaic (PV), short-circuit fault, Z-source network
In recent years, photovoltaic (PV) systems have emerged as economical solutions for irrigation systems in rural areas. However, they are characterized by low voltage output and less reliable configurations. To address this issue in this paper, a promising inverter configuration called Impedance (Z)-source inverter (ZSI) is designed and implemented to obtain high voltage output with single-stage power conversion, particularly suitable for irrigation application. An improved and efficient modulation scheme and design specifications of the network parameters are derived. Additionally, a suitable fault-tolerant strategy is developed and implemented to improve reliability and efficiency. It incorporates an additional redundant leg with an improved control strategy to facilitate the fault-tolerant operation. The proposed fault-tolerant circuit is designed to handle switch failures of the inverter modules due to the open-circuit and short-circuit faults. The relevant simulation and experiment... [more]
9225. LAPSE:2023.26263
Short-Term Direct Probability Prediction Model of Wind Power Based on Improved Natural Gradient Boosting
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: blending fusion, improved natural gradient boosting, short-term direct probability prediction, wind power
Wind energy has been widely used in renewable energy systems. A probabilistic prediction that can provide uncertainty information is the key to solving this problem. In this paper, a short-term direct probabilistic prediction model of wind power is proposed. First, the initial data set is preprocessed by a box plot and gray correlation analysis. Then, a generalized method is proposed to calculate the natural gradient and the improved natural gradient boosting (NGBoost) model is proposed based on this method. Finally, blending fusion is used in order to enhance the learning effect of improved NGBoost. The model is validated with the help of measured data from Dalian Tuoshan wind farm in China. The results show that under the specified confidence, compared with the single NGBoost metamodel and other short-term direct probability prediction models, the model proposed in this paper can reduce the forecast area coverage probability while ensuring a higher average width of prediction interva... [more]
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