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Showing records 151 to 175 of 364. [First] Page: 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Last
Methodology Presentation for the Configuration Optimization of Hybrid Electrical Energy Systems
Dubravko Žigman, Tomislav Tomiša, Krešimir Osman
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: electrical hybrid system, hybrid power system configuration, methodology, microgrid, Optimization, Simulation
The paper presents the methodology that should be used to optimize hybrid power system configurations, i.e., the chosen microgrid scenario. The methodology was developed with the aim of evaluating the different production capacities of a system and comparing them with alternative connections to the main grid. It has a step-by-step structure and includes part of the steps performed by simulations in a computer program. It provides us with not only a basic but also a representative idea of an actual microgrid configuration, which is further used as support in the system’s design. An algorithm has been developed to check the energy flows and correct the selling price. The program HOMER Pro is used as the program support in performing the hybrid optimization simulation. In the analysis, it was found that the maximum share of generation from renewable energy sources in relation to the power grid is 143%, while the share of renewable energy sources in the generated energy is 65.3%. Greenhous... [more]
A Simulation Environment for Training a Reinforcement Learning Agent Trading a Battery Storage
Harri Aaltonen, Seppo Sierla, Rakshith Subramanya, Valeriy Vyatkin
March 10, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, battery, electricity market, frequency containment reserve, frequency reserve, real-time, reinforcement learning, Simulation, timescale
Battery storages are an essential element of the emerging smart grid. Compared to other distributed intelligent energy resources, batteries have the advantage of being able to rapidly react to events such as renewable generation fluctuations or grid disturbances. There is a lack of research on ways to profitably exploit this ability. Any solution needs to consider rapid electrical phenomena as well as the much slower dynamics of relevant electricity markets. Reinforcement learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that has shown promise in optimizing complex problems involving uncertainty. This article applies reinforcement learning to the problem of trading batteries. The problem involves two timescales, both of which are important for profitability. Firstly, trading the battery capacity must occur on the timescale of the chosen electricity markets. Secondly, the real-time operation of the battery must ensure that no financial penalties are incurred from failing to meet the techn... [more]
Simulation Modeling of a Photovoltaic-Green Roof System for Energy Cost Reduction of a Building: Texas Case Study
Sojung Kim, Burchan Aydin, Sumin Kim
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: condensate water, green roof, photovoltaic, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Simulation, urban agriculture
This study aims at introducing a modeling and simulation approach for a green roof system which can reduce energy cost of a building exposed to high temperatures throughout the summer season. First, to understand thermal impact of a green roof system on a building surface, a field-based study has been conducted in Commerce, Texas, U.S., where the average maximum temperature in summer is 104 °F (40 °C). Two types of analyses were conducted: (1) comparison of temperature between different plant type via Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and (2) polynomial regression analysis to develop thermal impact estimation model based on air temperature and presence of a green roof. In addition, an agent-based simulation (ABS) model was developed via AnyLogic® University 8.6.0 simulation software, Chicago, IL, U.S., in order to accurately estimate energy cost and benefits of a building with a photovoltaic-green roof system. The proposed approach was applied to estimate energy reduction cost of the Keith... [more]
Improving the Energy Efficiency of Buildings Based on Fluid Dynamics Models: A Critical Review
Xiaoshu Lü, Tao Lu, Tong Yang, Heidi Salonen, Zhenxue Dai, Peter Droege, Hongbing Chen
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: buildings, Energy Efficiency, fluid dynamics models, indoor environment, Simulation, ventilation
The built environment is the global sector with the greatest energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. As a result, building energy savings can make a major contribution to tackling the current energy and climate change crises. Fluid dynamics models have long supported the understanding and optimization of building energy systems and have been responsible for many important technological breakthroughs. As Covid-19 is continuing to spread around the world, fluid dynamics models are proving to be more essential than ever for exploring airborne transmission of the coronavirus indoors in order to develop energy-efficient and healthy ventilation actions against Covid-19 risks. The purpose of this paper is to review the most important and influential fluid dynamics models that have contributed to improving building energy efficiency. A detailed, yet understandable description of each model’s background, physical setup, and equations is provided. The main ingredients, theoretical interpretatio... [more]
Effects of Water Injection Strategies on Oxy-Fuel Combustion Characteristics of a Dual-Injection Spark Ignition Engine
Xiang Li, Yiqiang Pei, Dayou Li, Tahmina Ajmal, Khaqan-Jim Rana, Abdel Aitouche, Raouf Mobasheri, Zhijun Peng
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: dual-injection spark ignition (SI) engine, oxy-fuel combustion (OFC), Simulation, water injection (WI) strategies
Currently, global warming has been a serious issue, which is closely related to anthropogenic emission of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) in the atmosphere, particularly Carbon Dioxide (CO2). To help achieve carbon neutrality by decreasing CO2 emissions, Oxy-Fuel Combustion (OFC) technology is becoming a hot topic in recent years. However, few findings have been reported about the implementation of OFC in dual-injection Spark Ignition (SI) engines. This work numerically explores the effects of Water Injection (WI) strategies on OFC characteristics in a practical dual-injection engine, including GDI (only using GDI), P50-G50 (50% PFI and 50% GDI) and PFI (only using PFI). The findings will help build a conceptual and theoretical foundation for the implementation of OFC technology in dual-injection SI engines, as well as exploring a solution to increase engine efficiency. The results show that compared to Conventional Air Combustion (CAC), there is a significant increase in BSFC under OFC. Ignition... [more]
Influence of Fuel Type and Water Content Variation on Pollutant Emission Characteristics of a Biomass Circulating Fluidized Bed Boiler
Jianjie He, Shanjian Liu, Di Yao, Ranran Kong, Yaya Liu
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: Biomass, circulating fluidized bed, fuel type, pollutant emission, Simulation, water content
In general, the biomass raw materials burned by biomass power plants generally have the characteristics of variable fuel types, high moisture content, and high volatile content. In this paper, a 130 t/h biomass circulating fluidized bed (BCFB) model was established on the MWorks platform with Modelica language. The influence of biomass type changes on operation parameters, the corresponding steady-state characteristics, and the dynamic characteristics of the BCFB were carried out. The temperature corresponding to the combustion of pine was overall higher than that of the other fuels, and the flue gas from the combustion of pine had the highest concentration of SO2, up to 520.49 mg/Nm3. The flue gas from the combustion of pure cotton sticks had the highest concentration of NO, up to 254.34 mg/Nm3. The changes of fuel type and moisture content all have a great influence on the operation of BCFBs. The emission of pollutants was not only related to the element content of fuel, but also clo... [more]
Linearization of Thermal Equivalent Temperature Calculation for Fast Thermal Comfort Prediction
Christian Rommelfanger, Louis Fischer, Jérôme Frisch, Christoph Van Treeck
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: heat transfer, numerical fluid simulation, Simulation, thermal comfort
Virtual simulations and calculations are a key technology for future development methods. A variety of tools and methods for calculating thermal comfort have not gained sufficient acceptance in practice due to their inherent complexity. This article investigates alternative means of determining thermal comfort, namely, the linearization of the equivalent temperature calculation. This enables a wide range of users to evaluate thermal comfort in a fast and easy manner, for example, for energy efficiency simulation. A flow and thermal model were created according to the requirements of DIN EN ISO 14505 to determine heat transfer coefficients under calibration conditions. The model to simulate the equivalent temperature in calibration conditions comprises a geometrically realistic 3D model of a human test person according to the standard. The influence of the turbulence model, as well as the influence of the equivalent temperature on the heat transfer coefficient in calibration conditions,... [more]
Modelling to Lower Energy Consumption in a Large WWTP in China While Optimising Nitrogen Removal
Mónica Vergara-Araya, Verena Hilgenfeldt, Di Peng, Heidrun Steinmetz, Jürgen Wiese
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Energy Efficiency, Modelling, nitrogen removal, optimisation, Simulation, wastewater treatment
In the last decade, China has sharply tightened the monitoring values for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). In some regions with sensitive discharge water bodies, the values (24 h composite sample) must be 1.5 mg/L for NH4-N and 10 mg/L for total nitrogen since 2021. Even with the previously less strict monitoring values, around 50% of the wastewater treatment plants in China were permanently unable to comply with the nitrogen monitoring values. Due to the rapid changes on-site to meet the threshold values and the strong relation to energy-intensive aeration strategies to sufficiently remove nitrogen, WWTPs do not always work energy-efficiently. A Chinese WWTP (450,000 Population equivalents or PE) with upstream denitrification, a tertiary treatment stage for phosphorus removal and disinfection, and aerobic sludge stabilisation was modelled in order to test various concepts for operation optimisation to lower energy consumption while meeting and undercutting effluent requirements. F... [more]
Simulation Study on Active Air Flow Distribution Characteristics of Closed Heat Pump Drying System with Waste Heat Recovery
Hai-Bo Zhao, Kun Wu, Jing-Feng Zhang
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: flow distribution, flow field, heat pump drying, Simulation
A tridimensional turbulent flow model is established for a closed heat pump drying system with waste heat recovery to improve the drying air flow characteristics and reduce the energy consumption of air circulation. The active flow distribution mode is introduced to guide air flowing in the system’s drying cabinet, top air duct, mixing zone, and heat pump. It is found that the wind velocity in the cabinet’s supply channel is greater than that in the return channel, the velocity distribution in the top duct is uneven, and the outlet velocity of the bypass fan is high and a vortex forms. A partition panel added in the top duct and modulating fans in the drying cabinet are proposed to solve these problems. The simulation results show that removing the circulating fan, changing the volume flow of the bypass fan, adopting the alternative operation mode of the bypass fans, reducing the air volume flow of the supply fan, and reducing the total pressure of the fans can improve the dry air velo... [more]
Forecasting the CO2 Emissions at the Global Level: A Multilayer Artificial Neural Network Modelling
Pradyot Ranjan Jena, Shunsuke Managi, Babita Majhi
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial neural network model, CO2 emission, forecasting, Simulation
Better accuracy in short-term forecasting is required for intermediate planning for the national target to reduce CO2 emissions. High stake climate change conventions need accurate predictions of the future emission growth path of the participating countries to make informed decisions. The current study forecasts the CO2 emissions of the 17 key emitting countries. Unlike previous studies where linear statistical modeling is used to forecast the emissions, we develop a multilayer artificial neural network model to forecast the emissions. This model is a dynamic nonlinear model that helps to obtain optimal weights for the predictors with a high level of prediction accuracy. The model uses the gross domestic product (GDP), urban population ratio, and trade openness, as predictors for CO2 emissions. We observe an average of 96% prediction accuracy among the 17 countries which is much higher than the accuracy of the previous models. Using the optimal weights and available input data the for... [more]
Simulation Study on the Effect of Flue Gas on Flow Field and Rotor Stress in Gas Turbines
Guangkui Liu, Sicong Sun, Kui Liang, Xisheng Yang, Dong An, Qi Wen, Xiaohan Ren
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: fume volume, internal flow field of gas turbine, rotor stress, Simulation
A flue gas turbine is the main energy recovery equipment in a heavy oil catalytic cracking unit. Blade erosion and fracture are the main reasons for gas turbine failure. In this study, the characteristics of the flow field and rotor stress in the gas turbine under different fume volumes are simulated and analyzed by simulation software (ANSYS). The influences of fume volume on the high-temperature fume flow field, temperature, velocity, catalyst particle movement rotor stress in the gas turbine, as well as the influence law of flue gas flow on temperature gradient, pressure gradient, velocity distribution, and the main position of blade erosion were studied. The stress distribution and maximum stress position of the impeller were also determined. It was found that the variation trends of the pressure gradient in the calculation domain of the gas turbine under different fume volumes are similar. The pressure on the working face of the rotor blade decreases gradually along the flow direc... [more]
Economic Analysis and Generic Algorithm for Optimizing the Investments Decision-Making Process in Oil Field Development
Catalin Popescu, Sorin Alexandru Gheorghiu
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: costs, data analysis, decision making, economic model, forecast parameters, investments, Modelling, oil price, Optimization, Simulation
Due to the substantial amounts of money involved and the complex interactions of a number of different factors, managers of oil and gas companies are faced with significant challenges when making investment decisions that will increase business efficiency and achieve competitive advantages, especially through cost control. Due to the various uncertainties of the current period, optimal investment strategies are difficult to determine. Thus, through an economic analysis that includes data analysis, quantitative risk analysis scenarios, modelling and simulations, a work framework, in the form of a generic algorithm, is proposed with the aim of generating a complex procedure for optimizing investment decisions in oil field development. A complex set of elements is considered in the analysis: costs (operational expenditures (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX), daily drilling rig costs), prices (oil, gas, separation and water injection preparation), production profiles, different types... [more]
Thermal Protection Technology for Acoustic−Magnetic Device in a Geothermal Water Anti-Scaling System
Alexey Korzhakov, Sergei Oskin
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: acoustic transmitter, acoustic–magnetic device, geothermal water, heat transfer, QuickField, Simulation
This article presents the results of the design of acoustic−magnetic device thermal protection technology based on simulation. The acoustic−magnetic device (AMD) was installed in the heat supply system of a greenhouse complex with a geothermal heat source, developed and patented by the authors of this paper. Simulation was performed to investigate the possibility of maintaining the acoustic transmitter temperature of the acoustic−magnetic device in its operating range. The QuickField Student Edition v 6.4 simulation environment was used for this purpose. Based on the results of the simulation, the optimum thermal mode of the acoustic−magnetic device was developed and implemented. The optimum temporal operating mode of the acoustic−magnetic device is necessary for the optimization of the non-reagent treatment of geothermal water in a heat supply system of a greenhouse complex. It allows for a considerable reduction in the intensity of scale formation in the heat exchanger and equipment... [more]
Sensitivity Analysis of a Two-Phase CFD Simulation of a 1 kN Paraffin-Fueled Hybrid Rocket Motor
Benoit Dequick, Michel Lefebvre, Patrick Hendrick
March 8, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, hybrid rocket, nitrous oxide, paraffin, RANS, sensitivity analysis, Simulation, two-phase
At Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), research was performed on a 1 kN lab-scale Hybrid Rocket Motor (the ULB-HRM). It has a single-port solid paraffin fuel grain and uses liquid N2O as an oxidizer. The first Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of the motor was developed in 2020 and improved in 2021, using ANSYS Fluent software. It is a 2D axisymmetric, two-phase steady-state Reynolds-Averaged Navier−Stokes (RANS) model, which uses the average fuel and oxidizer mass flow rates as inputs. It includes oxidizer spray droplets and entrained fuel droplets, therefore adding many additional parameters compared to a single-phase model. It must be investigated how they affect the predicted operating conditions. In this article, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the model’s robustness. It is demonstrated that the CFD model performs well within the boundaries of its purpose, with average deviations between predicted and experimental values of about 1% for the chamber pressur... [more]
PVcheck—A Software to Check Your Photovoltaic System
Markus Rinio
March 8, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: long-term stability, peak power, performance, photovoltaic, PV system, pvlib python, Simulation, solar cell, solar module, system check
Having a photovoltaic (PV) system raises the question of whether it runs as expected. Measuring its energy yield takes a long time and the result still contains uncertainties from varying weather conditions and possible shading of the modules. Here, a free software PVcheck to measure the peak power of the system is announced, using the power data of a single sunny day. The software loads a data file of the generated power as a function of time from this day. This data file is provided by typical inverters. The software then simulates this power curve using known parameters like angle and location of the PV system. The assumed peak power of the simulation can then be adjusted so that the simulated curve matches the measured one. The software runs under Microsoft Windows™ and makes use of the free library pvlib python. The simulation can be refined by importing weather data like temperature, wind speed, and insolation. Furthermore, curves describing the nominal module efficiency as a fun... [more]
Eco-Friendly and Economical Solar Heater Design Using Internal Structure and Phase Change Materials
Jihu Lee, Sung-Hun Son, Kibum Kim
March 8, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, phase change materials, Simulation, solar air heater
Indoor heating systems currently used are highly dependent on fossil fuels; hence, it is urgent to develop a new heating system to achieve carbon zero-emission. A solar air heater is eco-friendly because it generates nearly zero greenhouse gases. In this study, a parametric study was conducted for optimizing solar air heater design applicable to indoor heating. Installing the internal structure in the solar heater changes the interior flow characteristic, resulting in the air temperature increased by about 14.2 K on average compared to the heater without the internal structure. An additional case study was carried out to optimize the ideal quantity of phase change materials (PCM) in terms of mass fraction and heat capacity for various operating conditions. An excessive amount of PCM (e.g., 66% of the storage space filled with PCM) deteriorates the performance of the air heater unless the entire PCM could be melted during the daytime. After heating, the air temperature was maintained th... [more]
Optimization of Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle Power Plant for Polygeneration of Power and Chemicals
Ammar Bany Ata, Peter Maximilian Seufert, Christian Heinze, Falah Alobaid, Bernd Epple
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: EBSILON, heat integration, HRSG, IGCC, Polygeneration, Simulation
Efficient and flexible operation is essential for competitiveness in the energy market. However, the CO2 emissions of conventional power plants have become an increasingly significant environmental dilemma. In this study, the optimization of a steam power process of an IGCC was carried out, which improved the overall performance of the plant. CCPP with a subcritical HRSG was modelled using EBSILON Professional. The numerical results of the model were validated by measurements for three different load cases (100, 80, and 60%). The results are in agreement with the measured data, with deviations of less than 5% for each case. Based on the model validation, the model was modified for the use of syngas as feed and the integration of heat into an IGCC process. The integration was optimized with respect to the performance of the CCPP by varying the extraction points, adjusting the steam parameters of the extractions and modifying the steam cycle. For the 100% load case, a steam turbine power... [more]
Artificial Negative Polarity Thunderstorm Cell Modeling of Nearby Incomplete Upward Discharges’ Influence on Elements of Monitoring Systems for Air Transmission Lines
Nikolay Lysov, Alexander Temnikov, Leonid Chernensky, Alexander Orlov, Olga Belova, Tatiana Kivshar, Dmitry Kovalev, Vadim Voevodin
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial thunderstorm cell, electromagnetic radiation spectrum, lightning, model element, Simulation, transmission line monitoring system, upward leader discharges, wavelet
The article represents results of a physical simulation of incomplete upward leader discharges induced on air transmission lines’ elements, using charged artificial thunderstorm cells of negative polarity. The influence of such discharges on closely located model sensors (both of rod and elongated types) of digital monitoring systems, as well as on the models of receiver-transmission systems of local data collection (antennas), was determined. Effect of heterogeneity of electromagnetic field caused by incomplete upward discharges on frequency specter of signals generated on sensors and antennas was estimated. Wavelet analysis was carried out to determine the basic frequency diapasons of such signals. Based on experimental data obtained, suppositions about the extent of influence of nearby incomplete leader discharges on the functioning of currently used systems of transmission lines’ monitoring were made.
3D Unsteady Simulation of a Scale-Up Methanation Reactor with Interconnected Cooling Unit
Liyan Sun, Kun Luo, Jianren Fan
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: circulating fluidized bed, CO methanation, heat transfer, Simulation
The production of synthetic natural gas (SNG) via methanation has been demonstrated by experiments in bench scale bubbling fluidized bed reactors. In the current work, we focus on the scale-up of the methanation reactor, and a circulating fluidized bed (CFB) is designed with variable diameter according to the characteristic of methanation. The critical issue is the removal of reaction heat during the strongly exothermic process of the methanation. As a result, an interconnected bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) is utilized and connected with the reactor in order to cool the particles and to maintain system temperature. A 3D model is built, and the influences of operating temperature on H2, CO conversion and CH4 yield are evaluated by numerical simulations. The instantaneous and time-averaged flow behaviors are obtained and analyzed. It turns out that the products with high concentrations of CH4 are received at the CFB reactor outlet. The temperature of the system is kept under control by us... [more]
An Assessment of Heating Load Reduction by a Solar Air Heater in a Residential Passive Ventilation System
Junichiro Matsunaga, Koki Kikuta, Hideki Hirakawa, Keita Mizuno, Masaki Tajima, Motoya Hayashi, Akira Fukushima
March 6, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: actual measurement, passive ventilation, residential house, Simulation, solar air heater, ventilation load
In this paper, the authors examined the technology to maximize the use of renewable energy. Passive ventilation systems are expected to reduce the energy consumption of the fan and the maintenance burden. In addition, the wall-mounted solar air heater can supply thermal energy without using any energy at all. Therefore, this paper presents a “passive ventilation system with a solar air heater” that combines a passive ventilation system with the solar air heater to preheat the air. This system can reduce the ventilation load. To evaluate the solar air heater performance in a real environment, we developed a simulation for calculating the heat collection capacity of the solar air heater, and then the system was implemented in a real building for verification. The simulation performs hourly unsteady calculations, allowing for accurate evaluation of the annual simulation. Based on the measurement results, the effects of heating load reduction and prediction methods are presented. The solar... [more]
Numerical Simulation of the Effects of Oil Gun Location and Oil Feed Rate on Coal Ignition and Burner Wall Temperature in a Tiny Oil Ignition Burner
Qilei Ma, Wenqi Zhong, Xi Chen, Jianhua Li, Hui Zhang
March 6, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: extension distance, oil feed rate, Simulation, tiny oil ignition burner, wall overheating
To solve the overheating problem of tiny oil ignition burners’ walls during the firing-up process in a 330 MWe tangentially pulverized coal-fired boiler, a numerical model of a tiny oil ignition burner was carefully built considering combustion, gas−solid flow, and heat transfer. Then, the burner location and oil feed rate were optimized based on the model to prevent the burner’s walls from overheating. The effects of the oil gun extension distance (100, 200, 300, 400, 500 mm) and oil feed rate (160, 140, 120, 100, 80, 70, 60 kg/h) on coal ignition performance and burner wall temperature were carefully investigated. The simulation results showed good agreement with the measured results. The results indicated that decreasing the oil gun distance within the burner diminished the flame length of the co-combustion of oil and pulverized coal, thus lowering the burner wall temperature. Decreasing the oil feed rate appropriately could also reduce the burner wall temperature without influencin... [more]
Mathematical Modeling of Urea Reaction with Sulfuric Acid and Phosphoric Acid to Produce Ammonium Sulfate and Ammonium Dihydrogen Phosphate Respectively
Juan Carlos Beltrán-Prieto, Karel Kolomazník
March 6, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: adiabatic heat, enthalpy, mathematical modeling, reaction rate, Simulation, urea stabilization
Urea is the final product of protein metabolism in mammals and can be found in different biological fluids. Use of mammalian urine in agricultural production as organic fertilizer requires safe handling to avoid the formation of ammonia that will decrease the fertilizer value due to the loss of nitrogen. Safe handling is also required to minimize the decomposition of urea into condensed products such as biuret and cyanuric acid, which will also have a negative impact on the potential sustainable production of crops and sanitation technologies. The study of thermodynamics and reaction kinetics of urea stabilization plays a key role in understanding the conditions under which undesirable compounds and impurities in urea-based fertilizers and urea-based selective catalytic reduction systems are formed. For this reason, we studied the reaction of urea in acid media to achieve urea stabilization by modeling the reaction of urea with sulfuric acid and phosphoric acid, and estimating the reac... [more]
ARIMA Models in Electrical Load Forecasting and Their Robustness to Noise
Ewa Chodakowska, Joanicjusz Nazarko, Łukasz Nazarko
March 6, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ARIMA, electricity load, forecasting, model identification, robustness, Simulation, tolerance to noise
The paper addresses the problem of insufficient knowledge on the impact of noise on the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model identification. The work offers a simulation-based solution to the analysis of the tolerance to noise of ARIMA models in electrical load forecasting. In the study, an idealized ARIMA model obtained from real load data of the Polish power system was disturbed by noise of different levels. The model was then re-identified, its parameters were estimated, and new forecasts were calculated. The experiment allowed us to evaluate the robustness of ARIMA models to noise in their ability to predict electrical load time series. It could be concluded that the reaction of the ARIMA model to random disturbances of the modeled time series was relatively weak. The limiting noise level at which the forecasting ability of the model collapsed was determined. The results highlight the key role of the data preprocessing stage in data mining and learning. They cont... [more]
Overview of Thermal Hydraulic Optimization and Verification for the EU-DEMO HCPB BOP ICD Variant
Wolfgang Hering, Evaldas Bubelis, Sara Perez-Martin, Maria-Victoria Bologa
March 6, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: balance of plant, energy balance, EU-DEMO, helium-cooled pebble bed, indirect coupled design, power conversion system, Simulation, thermal storage
When progressing from the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) to the Demonstration Fusion Reactor (DEMO), a system for transferring plasma heat exhaust to a power conversion system is necessary for the so-called Balance of Plant (BOP). During the preconceptual phase of the EU-DEMO project, different BOP concepts were investigated in order to identify the main requirements and feasible architectures to achieve that goal in the most efficient way. This paper comprises the investigations performed during the DEMO preconceptual design phase (p-CDP) and compares the different variants. The main aspect was focused on the helium-cooled pebble bed (HCPB) breeding blanket (BB) concept. After all assessments were performed, the indirect coupled design (ICD) was chosen as the reference configuration for the DEMO HCPB BOP for further development and optimization. The ICD provides decoupling using a molten salt storage loop, which accumulates thermal power during plasma pulses t... [more]
Simulation of Crop Yields Grown under Agro-Photovoltaic Panels: A Case Study in Chonnam Province, South Korea
Jonghan Ko, Jaeil Cho, Jinsil Choi, Chang-Yong Yoon, Kyu-Nam An, Jong-Oh Ban, Dong-Kwan Kim
March 6, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: AVP, crop model, DSSAT, GCSM, Simulation, yield
Agro-photovoltaic systems are of interest to the agricultural industry because they can produce both electricity and crops in the same farm field. In this study, we aimed to simulate staple crop yields under agro-photovoltaic panels (AVP) based on the calibration of crop models in the decision support system for agricultural technology (DSSAT) 4.6 package. We reproduced yield data of paddy rice, barley, and soybean grown in AVP experimental fields in Bosung and Naju, Chonnam Province, South Korea, using CERES-Rice, CERES-Barley, and CROPGRO-Soybean models. A geospatial crop simulation modeling (GCSM) system, developed using the crop models, was then applied to simulate the regional variations in crop yield according to solar radiation reduction scenarios. Simulated crop yields agreed with the corresponding measured crop yields with root mean squared errors of 0.29-ton ha−1 for paddy rice, 0.46-ton ha−1 for barley, and 0.31-ton ha−1 for soybean, showing no significant differences accord... [more]
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