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Records with Subject: Modelling and Simulations
1280. LAPSE:2023.28869
Thermodynamic Analysis of Biomass Gasification Using Aspen Plus: Comparison of Stoichiometric and Non-Stoichiometric Models
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: air–steam gasification, Aspen Plus, Biomass, bubbling fluidised bed, sensitivity analysis.
The gasification process involves several reactions that occur simultaneously and are interrelated by several independent variables. Simulation tools can help us to understand the process behaviour and predict the efficiency and final composition of the products. In this work, two thermodynamic equilibrium models developed in Aspen Plus® software were assessed: a non-stoichiometric model based on the feedstock composition and on the most probable compounds expected from the results of the gasification process using minimisation of Gibbs free energy and a stoichiometric model based on a set of chemical reactions considered as the most relevant to describe the gasification process. Both models were validated with experimental data from a bubbling fluidised bed semi-pilot scale gasifier using pine kernel shells (PKS) as feedstock. The influence of temperature, stoichiometric ratio (SR) and steam to biomass ratio (SBR) were analysed. Overall, predictions of the gas composition and gasifica... [more]
1281. LAPSE:2023.28868
Using Smart-WiFi Thermostat Data to Improve Prediction of Residential Energy Consumption and Estimation of Savings
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: energy consumption, energy savings, Machine Learning, residential, smart WiFi thermostats.
Energy savings based upon use of smart WiFi thermostats ranging from 10 to 15% have been documented, as new features such as geofencing have been added. Here, a new benefit of smart WiFi thermostats is identified and investigated; namely, as a tool to improve the estimation accuracy of residential energy consumption and, as a result, estimation of energy savings from energy system upgrades, when only monthly energy consumption is metered. This is made possible from the higher sampling frequency of smart WiFi thermostats. In this study, collected smart WiFi data are combined with outdoor temperature data and known residential geometrical and energy characteristics. Most importantly, unique power spectra are developed for over 100 individual residences from the measured thermostat indoor temperature in each and used as a predictor in the training of a singular machine learning models to predict consumption in any residence. The best model yielded a percentage mean absolute error (MAE) fo... [more]
1282. LAPSE:2023.28858
Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries: A Review Oriented to Fluid-Dynamic Optimization
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, Energy Storage, flow battery, flow field, numerical model, vanadium, vanadium redox flow battery, VRFB.
Large-scale energy storage systems (ESS) are nowadays growing in popularity due to the increase in the energy production by renewable energy sources, which in general have a random intermittent nature. Currently, several redox flow batteries have been presented as an alternative of the classical ESS; the scalability, design flexibility and long life cycle of the vanadium redox flow battery (VRFB) have made it to stand out. In a VRFB cell, which consists of two electrodes and an ion exchange membrane, the electrolyte flows through the electrodes where the electrochemical reactions take place. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations are a very powerful tool to develop feasible numerical models to enhance the performance and lifetime of VRFBs. This review aims to present and discuss the numerical models developed in this field and, particularly, to analyze different types of flow fields and patterns that can be found in the literature. The numerical studies presented in this review... [more]
1283. LAPSE:2023.28856
Analytical Determination of the Slot and the End-Winding Portion of the Winding-to-Rotor Capacitance for the Prediction of Shaft Voltage in Electrical Machines
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: EDM currents, shaft voltage, traction motor, winding-to-rotor capacitance.
Common-mode voltage, caused by a 2-level inverter, is a source of discharge currents in motor bearings. Due to the capacitive coupling, between the stator winding and the rotor, an image of the common-mode voltage is produced on the shaft—which can exceed the dielectric strength of the lubrication film of motor bearings. Accurate determination of the winding-to-rotor capacitance is necessary to predict the shaft voltage. This article proposes a novel analytical determination of the slot and the end-winding portion of the winding-to-rotor capacitance. The calculation rules, which are based on the method of image charges and the charge simulation method, take into account the continuity and the boundary conditions of the field areas. Results are validated by means of finite element method simulations. Notably, deviations are in the single-digit percentage range. Furthermore, the presented methods are simple to implement.
1284. LAPSE:2023.28821
A Novel Feature Set for Low-Voltage Consumers, Based on the Temporal Dependence of Consumption and Peak Demands
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: clustering, consumer categorization, feature construction, load duration curve, load profiling, peak demand.
This paper proposes a novel feature construction methodology aiming at both clustering yearly load profiles of low-voltage consumers, as well as investigating the stochastic nature of their peak demands. These load profiles describe the electricity consumption over a one-year period, allowing the study of seasonal dependence. The clustering of load curves has been extensively studied in literature, where clustering of daily or weekly load curves based on temporal features has received the most research attention. The proposed feature construction aims at generating a new set of variables that can be used in machine learning applications, stepping away from traditional, high dimensional, chronological feature sets. This paper presents a novel feature set based on two types of features: respectively the consumption time window on a daily and weekly basis, and the time of occurrence of peak demands. An analytic expression for the load duration curve is validated and leveraged in order to... [more]
1285. LAPSE:2023.28816
Potential Energy, Demand, Emissions, and Cost Savings Distributions for Buildings in a Utility’s Service Area
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: demand side management, grid-interactive efficient buildings, urban-scale energy modeling, valuation.
Several companies, universities, and national laboratories are developing urban-scale energy modeling that allows the creation of a digital twin of buildings for the simulation and optimization of real-world, city-sized areas. Prior to simulation-based assessment, a baseline of savings for a set of utility-defined use cases was established to clarify the initial business case for specific energy efficient building technologies. In partnership with a municipal utility, 178,337 OpenStudio and EnergyPlus models of buildings in the utility’s 1400 km2 service area were created, simulated, and assessed with measures for quantifying energy, demand, cost, and emissions reductions of each building. The method of construction and assumptions behind these models is discussed, definitions of example measures are provided, and distribution of savings across the building stock is provided under a maximum technical adoption scenario.
1286. LAPSE:2023.28810
Parametric Study of Air Infiltration in Residential Buildings—The Effect of Local Conditions on Energy Demand
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: airflow network, airtightness, building exposure, climate data, performance simulation.
Airtightness is nowadays one of the physical parameters which determine overall building energy performance. In a wide range of states, the upper limit for air change rate at a Pa (na), air permeability rate at a Pa (qa), or specific leakage rate at a Pa (wa) is determined by the formal regulations. It should be highlighted that airtightness requirements are mainly the same around the world, disregarding any site and climatic conditions. The main goal of the presented work was to reveal the effect of individual location and surrounding infiltration rate and heat demand. The analyses were done using numerical techniques and computational models of the three buildings developed and calibrated based on the blower door test results. The compared buildings characterize by a similar geometry but differ in the air change rate at 50 Pa (n50). Analyses done for different locations and levels of sheltering by surrounding elements allow the determination of the real effect of local conditions. Th... [more]
1287. LAPSE:2023.28803
Application of Genetic Algorithm Elements to Modelling of Rotation Processes in Motion Transmission Including a Long Shaft
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: analytical mechanics, computer simulation, Genetic Algorithm, Hamilton–Ostrogradski principle, long shaft equations, mathematical modelling.
Genetic algorithms are used to parameter identification of the model of oscillatory processes in complicated motion transmission of electric drives containing long elastic shafts as systems of distributed mechanical parameters. Shaft equations are generated on the basis of a modified Hamilton−Ostrogradski principle, which serves as the foundation to analyse the lumped parameter system and distributed parameter system. They serve to compute basic functions of analytical mechanics of velocity continuum and rotational angles of shaft elements. It is demonstrated that the application of the distributed parameter method to multi-mass rotational systems, that contain long elastic elements and complicated control systems, is not always possible. The genetic algorithm is applied to determine the coefficients of approximation the system of Rotational Transmission with Elastic Shaft by equivalent differential equations. The fitness function is determined as least-square error. The obtained resul... [more]
1288. LAPSE:2023.28795
Numerical and Experimental Analysis of Flow Pattern, Pressure Drop and Collection Efficiency in a Cyclone with a Square Inlet and Different Dimensions of a Vortex Finder
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: CFD simulations, CTA mesaurements, cyclone separator, dust removal, gas flow pattern, pressure drop, pressure drop, vortex finder.
The paper presents results of numerical simulations and experimental investigations of a cyclone with a square inlet and different dimensions of a vortex finder. Investigations were conducted for five, different cyclone models. The main goal of the research was to determine the influence of cyclone vortex finder geometry (diameter, length) on key parameters for a cyclone operation, such as: gas flow pattern, gas velocity and pressure distribution, pressure drop and collection efficiency. The analysis of flow pattern inside the cyclone was carried out with the use of CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) simulations, verified using CTA (Constant Temperature Anemometry). Similarly, pressure distributions, pressure drop and collection efficiency for cyclones were determined numerically and with measurements. The study demonstrated that dimensions of the vortex finder have a significant effect on a cyclone performance. The numerical visualisations of flow showed some unfavorable and beneficia... [more]
1289. LAPSE:2023.28790
Study on the Impact Pressure of Swirling-Round Supercritical CO2 Jet Flow and Its Influencing Factors
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: flow field, impact pressure, numerical simulation, rock-breaking efficiency, supercritical carbon dioxide, swirling-round jet.
Supercritical carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) jet is capable of decreasing the threshold pressure of rock breakage and mitigating formation damage, owing to its low viscosity, high diffusivity, and extremely-low surface tension. The swirling-round jet holds the advantages of both a swirling jet and a round jet. Therefore, the comprehensive technique, swirling-round SC-CO2 (SR-SC-CO2) jet, is expected to substantially enhance rock-breaking efficiency. However, theoretical analysis of the flow field characteristics of SR-SC-CO2 has not been reported yet. This work aims to lay a theoretical foundation for employing SR-SC-CO2 in drilling and fracturing. The flow field is simulated using Naiver-Stokes equations and the RNG k-ε turbulence model. Sensitivity analysis, regarding pressure drop of the nozzle, confining pressure, fluid temperature, jetting distance, the diameter of the nozzle’s central hole, and grooving area, are performed. We show that the combined swirling-round SC-CO2 jet flow could... [more]
1290. LAPSE:2023.28780
Experimental Study and Conjugate Heat Transfer Simulation of Turbulent Flow in a 90° Curved Square Pipe
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: conjugate heat transfer, heat exchanger, secondary flow, temperature fields, turbulent flow.
This paper discusses the turbulent flow and heat transfer from a uniform air flow with high temperature to the outside through a 90° curved square pipe. Both conjugate heat transfer (CHT) simulation and experiments of temperature field measurements at cross sections of the pipe are performed. A straight pipe is investigated and compared with the 90° curved pipe. The temperature of the air flow at the inlet of the pipe is set at 402 K, and the corresponding Reynolds number is approximately 6 × 104. To obtain the spatial average temperature at each cross section, the temperature fields are measured along the streamwise of the pipes and in the circumferential direction using thermocouples at each cross section from the inlet to the outlet of both the straight and curved pipes. Furthermore, the simulation is performed for turbulent flow and heat transfer inside the pipe wall using the Re-normalization group (RNG) k-ε turbulence model and CHT method. Both the experimental and numerical resu... [more]
1291. LAPSE:2023.28775
Determination of Heat Losses from the Pipeline in SDHW System during the Continuous Change of the Supply Temperature
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, heat loss, heat transfer, solar domestic hot water system.
In this article, the research object is the solar domestic hot water (SDHW) heating system that has been in operation since 2015 and is located on the campus of the Bialystok University of Technology (Poland). The thermal performance of solar collectors are thoroughly investigated so far. Therefore, special attention was paid to the issue of the heat loss from pipes. The measurements showed that the heat transfer in circulation pipes is quite complex due to continuous fluctuations in water temperature at the supply of this loop. As it turned out, the application of the classical method of energy balancing and the readings from heat meters gave inaccurate results in this case. The main aim of this study was to develop a different approach to solving the problem of determination of heat losses. The method presented in this article is based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and measurement results as the input data. The practical result of this study was the development of two relatio... [more]
1292. LAPSE:2023.28757
Energy-Saving Inertial Drive for Dual-Frequency Excitation of Vibrating Machines
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: dual-frequency, FEM simulation, inertial vibrator, sieving screen, spectrum.
The low energy efficiency and excessive power of electric motors of large-scale vibrating machines for processing bulk materials motivated a new design of the inertial drive. This drive consists of one motor and two coaxial unbalanced masses, whose rotational frequencies are related in the ratio 2:1. This approach allows for a generation of the excitation force with variable amplitude and frequency, which changes depending on the inertial characteristics and shaft rotation frequency and does not relate to the phase difference of the unbalanced masses. Because of this, the symmetry axis of the resulting vector hodograph can be changed. The spectral composition of the exciting force up to 200 Hz contains higher harmonics, the energy share of which is 25.4% from the 2nd harmonic and 14.1% from the 3rd and higher harmonics that correspondingly improves bulk material treatment in comparison to single-frequency vibrators. The finite element model is used for checking the strength capacity of... [more]
1293. LAPSE:2023.28754
Numerical Modeling and Optimization of an Air Handling Unit
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: air handling unit, Computational Fluid Dynamics, flow control unit, Modelling.
Concerns about the efficiency of Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning systems, including Air Handling Units (AHUs), started in the last century due to the energy crisis. Thenceforth, important improvements on the AHUs performance have emerged. Among the various improvements, the control of the AHUs and the redesign of the fans are the most important ones. Although, with increasingly demanding energy efficiency requirements, other constructive solutions must be investigated. Therefore, the objective of this work is to investigate, using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool, the fluid flow inside an AHU and to analyze different constructive solutions in order to improve the AHU performance. The numerical model provided a reasonable agreement with the experimental results in terms of air flow rate, despite the assumed simplifications. Regarding the constructive solution concept, the CFD results for the two different flow control units (FCUs) showed improvements in terms of fan... [more]
1294. LAPSE:2023.28750
Impact of Changes in the Required Thermal Insulation of Building Envelope on Energy Demand, Heating Costs, Emissions, and Temperature in Buildings
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: building envelope, deterministic mathematical model, financial savings, perceptible temperature, reduction of harmful emissions, the index of annual usable energy demand for heating, thermal transmittance coefficient.
Various methods can be used to reduce energy consumption in buildings. One of them is the tightening of energy requirements, which, like other methods, cannot result in a worsening of the indoor environmental quality. The article presents a study on the impact of changes in the thermal insulation of the building envelope on the energy demand, heating costs, and emissions. Mathematical models of the dependence of the index of annual usable energy demand for heating (EUH) of a residential house on the thermal transmittance coefficients (Ui) of selected building elements were developed. Values of Ui were adopted at three levels, corresponding to the maximum required values—as approved in Polish law for the periods from 2014, 2017, and 2021. The analyses were conducted for the location of the building in three of the five climate zones of Poland. It turned out that the differences in the energy demand in various locations in Poland amount to 32.6%. The change in Ui in the analyzed period c... [more]
1295. LAPSE:2023.28746
Performance of Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle and Its Turbomachinery with the Printed Circuit Heat Exchanger with Straight and Zigzag Channels
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: heat exchanger optimization, multi-objective genetic algorithm, sCO2-Brayton cycle, supercritical carbon dioxide cycle simulation.
Since printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHE) are the largest modules of a supercritical carbon dioxide Brayton cycle, they can considerably affect the whole system’s performance and layout. Straight-channel and zigzag-channel printed circuit heat exchangers have frequently been analyzed in the standalone mode and repeatedly proposed for sCO2−BC. However, the impact of heat exchanger designs with straight and zigzag-channel configurations on the performance of the cycle and its components, i.e., the turbine and compressor, has not been studied. In this context, this study evaluates the effect of different heat exchanger designs with various values of effectiveness (ϵ), inlet Reynolds number (Re), and channel configuration (zigzag and straight channel) on the overall performance of the sCO2−BC and its components. For the design and analysis of PCHEs, an in-house PCHE design and analysis code (PCHE-DAC) was developed in the MATLAB environment. The sCO2−BC performance was evaluated utilizi... [more]
1296. LAPSE:2023.28728
Towards a Predictive Simulation of Turbulent Combustion?—An Assessment for Large Internal Combustion Engines
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: combustion, Computational Fluid Dynamics, emissions, internal combustion engines, large engines, LES, spray, turbulence.
Frequently the question arises in what sense numerical simulation can be considered predictive if prior model tuning with test results is necessary. In this paper a summary of the present Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulation methods for in-cylinder modelling is presented with a focus on combustion processes relevant for large engines. The current discussion about the sustainability of internal combustion engines will have a strong impact on applying advanced CFD methods in industrial processes. It is therefore included in the assessment. Simplifications and assumptions of turbulence, spray, and combustion models, as well as uncertainties of model boundary conditions, are discussed and the future potential of an advanced approach like Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is evaluated. It follows that a high amount of expertise and a careful evaluation of the numerical results will remain necessary in the future to apply the best-suited models for a given combustion process. New chemical... [more]
1297. LAPSE:2023.28727
Non-Intrusive Measurements to Incorporate the Air Renovations in Dynamic Models Assessing the In-Situ Thermal Performance of Buildings
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: air renovation, building energy, building envelope, non-intrusive measurements, on-board monitoring, performance assessment.
This paper reports the analysis of the feasibility to characterise the air leakage and the mechanical ventilation avoiding the intrusiveness of the traditional measurement techniques of the corresponding indicators in buildings. The viability of obtaining the air renovation rate itself from measurements of the concentration of the metabolic CO2, and the possibilities to express this rate as function of other climatic variables, are studied. N2O tracer gas measurements have been taken as reference. A Test Cell and two full size buildings, with and without mechanical ventilation and with different levels of air leakage, are considered as case studies. One-month test campaigns have been used for the reference N2O tracer gas experiments. Longer periods are available for the analysis based on CO2 concentration. When the mechanical ventilation is not active, the results indicate significant correlation between the air renovation rate and the wind speed. The agreement between the N2O referenc... [more]
1298. LAPSE:2023.28713
Dynamic Approach to Evaluate the Effect of Reducing District Heating Temperature on Indoor Thermal Comfort
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: dynamic model, energy performance of buildings, indoor comfort, low temperature district heating, renovation, urban scale.
To reduce energy consumption for space heating, a coordinated action on energy supply, building fabric and occupant behavior is required to realize sustainable improvements. A reduction in district heating supply temperature is an interesting option to allow the incorporation of renewable energy sources and reduce distribution losses, but its impact on the final users must be considered. This aspect is especially critical as most European countries feature an old building stock, with poor insulation and heating systems designed for high-temperature operation. In this study, a complete methodology is devised to evaluate the effect of district heating temperature reduction on the end users by modeling all the stages of the system, from the primary heat exchanger to the indoor environment. A dynamic energy performance engine, based on EN ISO 52016-1:2017 standard and completed with a heat exchanger model, is implemented, and its outputs are used to calculate thermal comfort indicators thr... [more]
1299. LAPSE:2023.28711
Investigation of Turbulence Modeling for Point-Absorber-Type Wave Energy Converters
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, RANS, turbulence modeling, Wave Energy.
Reviewing the literature of CFD-based numerical wave tanks for wave energy applications, it can be observed that different flow conditions and different turbulence models are applied during numerical wave energy converter (WEC) experiments. No single turbulence model can be identified as an `industry standard’ for WEC modeling. The complexity of the flow field around a WEC, together with the strong dependency of turbulence effects on the shape, operational conditions, and external forces, hampers the formulation of such an `industry standard’. Furthermore, the conceptually different flow characteristics (i.e., oscillating, free surface flows), compared to the design cases of most turbulence models (i.e., continuous single-phase flow), can be identified as a source for the potential lack of accuracy of turbulence models for WEC applications. This communication performs a first step towards analyzing the accuracy and necessity of modeling turbulence effects, by means of turbulence models... [more]
1300. LAPSE:2023.28710
Numerical Simulations of DDT Limits in Hydrogen-Air Mixtures in Obstacle Laden Channel
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: DDT, DDT limits, ddtFoam, hydrogen-air, obstacle laden tube.
The main aim of this study was to perform numerical simulations of deflagration to detonation transition process (DDT) in hydrogen−air mixtures and assess the capabilities of freeware open-source ddtFoam code to simulate and capture DDT limits. The numerical geometry was based on the real 0.08 × 0.11 × 4 m (H × W × L), rectangular cross-section detonation channel previously used to experimentally investigate DDT limits in obstacle-filled channel. The constant blockage ratio (BR) equal to 0.5 was kept for three obstacle spacing configurations: S = H, 2H, 3H. The results showed that hydrogen concentration limits for successful DDT from simulations are close to the experimental values, however, the simulated DDT limits range is wider than the experimental one and depends on the obstacles spacing. The numerical results were analyzed by means of propagation velocities, overpressures, and run-up distances. The best match between numerical and experimental DDT limits was observed for obstacle... [more]
1301. LAPSE:2023.28701
Nonequilibrium Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Coal Ash
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: ash fusion, coal ash, fly ash, nonequilibrium molecular dynamics.
Both molecular dynamics (MD) and nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations were performed to simulate coal ashes using the Guillot-Sator model in this work. The structural and transport properties of coal ashes at high temperatures have been obtained. Superheating of coal ash system with anorthite crystal structure initial configuration has been observed for MD simulation which explains the discrepancy between previous MD simulation results and FactSage thermochemical calculations. The fluxing effects of both calcium oxide and sodium oxide have been investigated systematically through MD and NEMD simulations. Moreover, the viscosities of coal ash systems have been computed by two methods: (1) Stokes-Einstein equation; (2) NEMD simulations. Estimations of viscosities for various coal ash systems based on Stokes-Einstein equation exhibit a strong temperature dependence of viscosity, which agrees with previous experimental results. On the other hand, NEMD simulation results tha... [more]
1302. LAPSE:2023.28699
CSP Quasi-Dynamic Performance Model Development for All Project Life Cycle Stages and Considering Operation Modes. Validation Using One Year Data
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: CSP, parabolic trough, performance model, plant data validation, power block, quasi dynamic, Simulation, transient modelling.
The energy production of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants not only depends on their design, but also of the weather conditions and the way they are operated. A performance model (PM) of a CSP plant is an essential tool to determine production costs, to optimize design and also to supervise the operation of the plant. The challenge is developing a PM that is both easy enough to be useful during the earlier stages of the project, and also useful for supervision of plant operation. This requires one to be able to describe the step between the different modes of operation and to fit the response to transient meteorological phenomena, not so relevant in terms of aggregate values, but crucial for the supervision. The quasi-dynamic performance model (QD-PM) can predict the net energy exported to the grid, as well as all the key operational variables. The QD-PM was implemented using Matlab-Simulink of Mathwoks (MA, USA) with a modular structure. Each module is developed using specific sof... [more]
1303. LAPSE:2023.28694
Improvement of a Nusselt-Based Simulation Model for Heat Transfer in Rotary Heat Exchangers
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: heat recovery, heat recovery system, heat recovery wheel, heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC), local Nusselt number, regenerator, rotary heat exchanger, temperature effectiveness, thermal efficiency, thermal wheel.
In the last 50 years, the technology of rotary heat exchangers has not changed considerably. A reliable simulation can help improve the design of this technology. In this work, a simulation for rotary heat exchangers was developed and validated with multiple experimental data. This simulation takes an innovative approach based on locally calculated heat transfer coefficients and considers the entry region effect. This approach proved to be accurate since the average difference between the experimental results and the proposed model with a constant heat boundary condition is 0.1% and the maximum absolute deviation 1%. Experimental, as well as simulation results, indicate that lower empty tube gas velocity (1 m/s) and higher rotational speed (12 rpm) improve thermal efficiency compared to commonly used operating conditions. Additionally, a new model for predicting the local internal Nusselt number for sine ducts in the rotor channels is proposed, which considers the entry region effect.
1304. LAPSE:2023.28692
Forecasting Volatility of Energy Commodities: Comparison of GARCH Models with Support Vector Regression
April 12, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: energy commodities, forecasting, futures contracts, GARCH models, Machine Learning, support vector regression, volatility.
We compare the forecasting performance of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) -type models with support vector regression (SVR) for futures contracts of selected energy commodities: Crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoil and gasoline. The GARCH models are commonly used in volatility analysis, while SVR is one of machine learning methods, which have gained attention and interest in recent years. We show that the accuracy of volatility forecasts depends substantially on the applied proxy of volatility. Our study confirms that SVR with properly determined hyperparameters can lead to lower forecasting errors than the GARCH models when the squared daily return is used as the proxy of volatility in an evaluation. Meanwhile, if we apply the Parkinson estimator which is a more accurate approximation of volatility, the results usually favor the GARCH models. Moreover, it is difficult to choose the best model among the GARCH models for all analyzed commodit... [more]
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