Browse
Subjects
Records with Subject: System Identification
151. LAPSE:2023.27476
Data-Driven Three-Phase Saturation Identification from X-ray CT Images with Critical Gas Hydrate Saturation
April 4, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: critical gas hydrate saturation, data management, machine-learning, random forest, saturation identification, X-ray CT image
This study proposes three-phase saturation identification using X-ray computerized tomography (CT) images of gas hydrate (GH) experiments considering critical GH saturation (SGH,C) based on the machine-learning method of random forest. Eight GH samples were categorized into three low and five high GH saturation (SGH) groups. Mean square error of test results in the low and the high groups showed decreases of 37% and 33%, respectively, compared to that of the total eight. Additionally, a universal test set was configured from the total eight and tested with two trained machines for the low and high GH groups. Results revealed a boundary at ~50% of SGH signifying different saturation identification performance and the ~50% was estimated as SGH,C in this study. The trained machines for the low and high SGH groups had less performance on the larger and smaller values, respectively, of SGH,C. These findings conclude that we can take advantage of suitable separation of obtained training data... [more]
152. LAPSE:2023.27424
Feasibility for Damage Identification in Offshore Wind Jacket Structures through Monitoring of Global Structural Dynamics
April 4, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: damage identification, finite element model, mode shapes, natural frequencies, offshore wind jacket structure
The modal response of a four-legged jacket structure to damages are explored and resulting considerations for damage detection are discussed. A finite element model of the Wikinger (Iberdrola) jacket structure is used to investigate damage detection. Damages, such as cracks, scour, corrosion and more, are modelled in a simulation environment. The resulting modal parameters are calculated, these parameters are compared to those from an unaltered structure and metrics are calculated including frequency change, modal assurance criterion and modal flexibility. A highly detailed design-model is used to conduct a sensitivity study on modal parameters for a range of changes. By conducting this on the same structure, this acts as a useful reference for those interested in the dynamic response of offshore wind jacket structures. Additionally, this paper addresses the issue of changes in mode parameters resulting from turbine yaw. This paper also considers the challenge of mode-swapping in semi-... [more]
153. LAPSE:2023.27390
The Identification of Hotspots in the Bioenergy Production Chain
April 4, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: bioeconomy, bioenergy, biogas plant, energy return on investment, hotspot analysis, life cycle assessment
Increasing interest in bioenergy production in the context of the transition towards a circular economy and the promotion of renewable energy has produced demands for optimization of the value chain of energy production to improve the environmental viability of the system. Hotspot analysis based on life cycle assessment (LCA) contributes to the mitigation of environmental burdens and is a very important step towards the implementation of a bioeconomy strategy. In this study, hotspots identified using two parallel pathways: a literature review and empirical research on four different biogas plants located in Poland. LCA and energy return on investment (EROI) analysis of the whole bioenergy production chain were considered to identify unit processes or activities that are highly damaging to the environment. The biogas plants differ mainly in the type of raw materials used as an input and in the method of delivery. The results show that the most impactful processes are those in the delive... [more]
154. LAPSE:2023.27326
MELCOR Analysis of a SPARC Experiment for Spray-PAR Interaction during a Hydrogen Release
April 4, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: containment, hydrogen behavior, MELCOR code, PAR, severe accident, SPARC test facility, spray
A series of experiments were performed in the SPARC (spray-aerosol-recombiner-combustion) test facility to simulate a hydrogen mitigation system with the actuation of a PAR (passive auto-catalytic re-combiner) and spray system. In this study, the SPARC-SPRAY-PAR (SSP1) experiment is chosen to benchmark the MELCOR (a lumped-parameter code for severe accident analysis) predictions against test data. For this purpose, firstly we prepared the base input model of the SPARC test vessel, and tested it by a simple verification problem with well-defined boundary conditions. The implementation of a currently used PAR correlation in MELCOR is shown to be appropriate for the simulation of a PAR actuation experiment. In an SSP1 experiment, the PAR is reacting with hydrogen, and the spray actuation starts as soon as hydrogen injection is complete. The MELCOR simulation well predicts the pressure behavior and the gas flow affected by operating both a PAR and spray system. However, the local hydrogen... [more]
155. LAPSE:2023.27300
Dynamic Response Characterization of Floating Structures Based on Numerical Simulations
April 4, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: automated operational modal analysis, floating structures, operational modal analysis, output-only identification methods, semi-submersible, spar buoy, SSI-COV
Output-only methods are widely used to characterize the dynamic behavior of very diverse structures. However, their application to floating structures may be limited due to their strong nonlinear behavior. Therefore, since there is very little experience on the application of these experimental tools to these very peculiar structures, it is very important to develop studies, either based on numerical simulations or on real experimental data, to better understand their potential and limitations. In an initial phase, the use of numerical simulations permits a better control of all the involved variables. In this work, the Covariance-driven Stochastic Subspace Identification (SSI-COV) algorithm is applied to numerically simulated data of two different solutions to Floating Offshore Wind Turbines (FOWT) and for its capability of tracking the rigid body motion modal properties and susceptibility to different modeling restrictions and environmental conditions tested. The feasibility of apply... [more]
156. LAPSE:2023.27042
Identification of Technoeconomic Opportunities with the Use of Premium Efficiency Motors as Alternative for Developing Countries
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: cost-effectiveness, economic assessment, energy cost, energy saving, energy-efficient motors
More than 65% of electricity consumed worldwide by the industrial sector is used in electric-motor-driven systems. For this reason, the efficiency of electric motors is an important factor in improving the energy efficiency of the industry. Additionally, this contributes to reducing energy consumption, production costs, as well as CO2eq emissions. The replacement of motors with efficiency class IE1 by motors of efficiency class IE3 is one possible alternative to increase the efficiency of electric motor systems. When a program to replace motors with others of greater efficiency is initiated, it is necessary to casuistically evaluate all identified opportunities. Economic viability can be evaluated using a variety of methods. Often, the methods recommended by manufacturers or consulting entities focus on simple payback time without accounting for all influencing factors. This paper contributes to the academic discussion by proposing a methodology based on the calculation of energy-savin... [more]
157. LAPSE:2023.26980
System Identification and LQR Controller Design with Incomplete State Observation for Aircraft Trajectory Tracking
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: control, flight dynamics, Kalman filter, LQR, static output feedback, system identification, trajectory tracking
This paper presents a controller design process for an aircraft tracking problem when not all states are available. In the study, a nonlinear-transport aircraft simulation model was used and identified through Maximum Likelihood Principle and Extended Kalman Filter. The obtained mathematical model was used to design a Linear−Quadratic Regulator (LQR) with optimal weighting matrices when not all states are measured. The nonlinear aircraft simulation model with LQR controller tracking abilities were analyzed for multiple experiments with various noise levels. It was shown that the designed controller is robust and allows for accurate trajectory tracking. It was found that, in ideal atmospheric conditions, the tracking errors are small, even for unmeasured variables. In wind presence, the tracking errors were proportional to the wind velocity and acceptable for small and moderate disturbances. When turbulence was present in the experiment, state variable oscillations occurred that were pr... [more]
158. LAPSE:2023.26878
Identification of the Determinants of the Effectiveness of On-Road Chicanes in Transition Zones to Villages Subject to a 70 km/h Speed Limit
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: chicane, solar cells, speed reduction, speed restriction, traffic calming, transition zone
In recent decades traffic calming, especially in villages situated on through roads, has become an urgent issue. Various schemes are applied in the transition zones to reduce the inbound traffic speeds and thus improve the traffic safety. The studies conducted in several countries point to different determinants of the speed reduction obtained in this way. This article deals with the schemes including a central island horizontally deflecting one lane, located in transition zones to villages with 70 km/h speed restriction on two-lane roads (6 m carriageway width). In order to identify the speed reduction determinants, the speeds before and after chicanes were measured and the effect of the three criteria was investigated, characterising: the traffic management scheme, road design parameters, landscape elements present in the surroundings of the transition zone and visibility conditions. Based on the confirmation of logical tautology of many pre-selected factors, one aggregate parameter... [more]
159. LAPSE:2023.26780
Identification of Phase Fraction−Temperature Curves from Heat Capacity Data for Numerical Modeling of Heat Transfer in Commercial Paraffin Waxes
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: apparent heat capacity method, numerical modeling, paraffin heat capacity data, phase fraction–temperature curves, solid–liquid phase transition
The area-proportional baseline method generates phase fraction−temperature curves from heat capacity data of phase change materials. The curves describe the continuous conversion from solid to liquid over an extended temperature range. They are consistent with the apparent heat capacity and enthalpy modeling approach for the numerical solution of heat transfer problems. However, the curves are non-smooth, discrete signals. They are affected by noise in the heat capacity data and should not be used as input to continuous simulation models. This contribution proposes an alternative method based on spline approximation for the generation of consistent and smooth phase fraction−temperature, apparent heat capacity−temperature and enthalpy−temperature curves. Applications are presented for two commercial paraffins from Rubitherm GmbH considering heat capacity data from Differential Scanning Calorimetry and 3-layer-calorimetry. Apparent heat capacity models are validated for melting experimen... [more]
160. LAPSE:2023.26760
Modelling of a Three-Body Hinge-Barge Wave Energy Device Using System Identification Techniques
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: Renewable and Sustainable Energy, system identification, Wave Energy, wave energy converters
In order to increase the prevalence of wave energy converters (WECs), they must provide energy at competitive prices, especially when compared with other renewable energy sources. Thus, it is imperative to develop control system technologies that are able to maximize energy extraction from waves, such that the delivered energy cost is reduced. An important part of a model-based controller is the model that it uses. System identification techniques (SITs) provide methodologies to get accurate dynamic models from input-output data. However, even though these techniques are well developed in other application areas, they are seldom used in the context of WECs. This paper proposes several strategies based on SIT to get a linear time-invariant model for a three-body hinge-barge wave energy device using experimental data. The main advantage of the model obtained with this methodology, against other methods such as linear potential theory, is that this model remains valid even for relatively... [more]
161. LAPSE:2023.26748
Identification and Categorization of Factors Affecting the Adoption of Energy Efficiency Measures within Compressed Air Systems
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: assessment factors, compressed air systems, Energy Efficiency, energy efficiency measures, nonenergy benefits
Understanding the factors driving the implementation of energy efficiency measures in compressed air systems is crucial to improve industrial energy efficiency, given their low implementation rate. Starting from a thorough review of the literature, it is thus clear the need to support companies in the decision-making process by offering an innovative framework encompassing the most relevant factors to be considered when adopting energy efficiency measures in compressed air systems, inclusive of the impacts on the production resources and the operations of a company. The framework, designed following the perspective of the industrial decision-makers, has been validated, both theoretically and empirically, and preliminarily applied to a heterogeneous cluster of manufacturing industries. Results show that, beside operational, energetic, and economic factors, in particular contextual factors such as complexity, compatibility, and observability may highlight critical features of energy effi... [more]
162. LAPSE:2023.26624
Liquid-Based Battery Temperature Control of Electric Buses
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: battery cooling, control strategy, driving profile, electric buses, system identification
Previous research identified that battery temperature control is critical to the safety, lifetime, and performance of electric vehicles. In this paper, the liquid-based battery temperature control of electric buses is investigated subject to heat transfer behavior and control strategy. Therefore, a new transient calculation method is proposed to simulate the thermal behavior of a coolant-cooled battery system. The method is based on the system identification technique and combines the advantage of low computational effort and high accuracy. In detail, four transfer functions are extracted by a thermo-hydraulic 3D simulation model comprising 12 prismatic lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cells, housing, arrestors, and a cooling plate. The transfer functions describe the relationship between heat generation, cell temperature, and coolant temperature. A vehicle model calculates the power consumption of an electric bus and thus provides the input for the transient calculation. Fu... [more]
163. LAPSE:2023.26602
Adaptive Square-Root Unscented Kalman Filter-Based State-of-Charge Estimation for Lithium-Ion Batteries with Model Parameter Online Identification
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: adaptive square-root unscented Kalman filter, lithium-ion batteries, recursive least squares, state-of-charge estimation
The state-of-charge (SOC) is a fundamental indicator representing the remaining capacity of lithium-ion batteries, which plays an important role in the battery’s optimized operation. In this paper, the model-based SOC estimation strategy is studied for batteries. However, the battery’s model parameters need to be extracted through cumbersome prior experiments. To remedy such deficiency, a recursive least squares (RLS) algorithm is utilized for model parameter online identification, and an adaptive square-root unscented Kalman filter (SRUKF) is designed to estimate the battery’s SOC. As demonstrated in extensive experimental results, the designed adaptive SRUKF combined with RLS-based model identification is a promising SOC estimation approach. Compared with other commonly used Kalman filter-based methods, the proposed algorithm has higher precision in the SOC estimation.
164. LAPSE:2023.26537
A Corrected Equilibrium Manifold Expansion Model for Gas Turbine System Simulation and Control
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: corrected equilibrium manifold expansion model, gas turbine, multiple input multiple output, similarity theory, system identification
During recent decades, the equilibrium manifold expansion (EME) model has been considered as a powerful identification tool for complex industrial systems with the aim of system control and simulation. Based on a two-step “dynamic and static” identification method, an approximate nonlinear state-space model is built by using multiple polynomials. However, the existing identification method is only suitable for single-input (SI) systems, but not for multi-input (MI) systems, where EME models cannot guarantee global calculation stability. For solving such a problem, this paper proposes a corrected equilibrium manifold expansion (CEME) model based on gas turbine prior knowledge. The equilibrium manifold is extended in dimension by introducing similarity equations instead of the high dimensional polynomial fitting. The dynamic similarity criterion of similarity theory guarantees the global stability of the CEME model. Finally, the comparative test between the CEME model and the existing MI... [more]
165. LAPSE:2023.26262
Non-Intrusive Identification of Load Patterns in Smart Homes Using Percentage Total Harmonic Distortion
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: demand response, load disaggregation, percentage total harmonic distortion and non-intrusive identification of load pattern
Demand Response (DR) plays a vital role in a smart grid, helping consumers plan their usage patterns and optimize electricity consumption and also reduce harmonic pollution in a distribution grid without compromising on their needs. The first step of DR is the disaggregation of loads and identifying them individually. The literature suggests that this is accomplished through electric features. Present-day households are using modern power electronic-based nonlinear loads such as LED (Light Emitting Diode) lamps, electronic regulators and digital controllers to reduce the electricity consumption. Furthermore, usage of SMPS (Switched-Mode Power Supply) for computing and mobile phone chargers is increasing in every home. These nonlinear loads, while reducing electricity consumption, also introduce harmonic pollution into the distribution grid. This article presents a deterministic approach to the non-intrusive identification of load patterns using percentage Total Harmonic Distortion (THD... [more]
166. LAPSE:2023.26255
A Thematic Network-Based Methodology for the Research Trend Identification in Building Energy Management
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: building energy management, latent Dirichlet allocation, social network analysis, text mining, topic model
The rapid increase in the number of online resources and academic articles has created great challenges for researchers and practitioners to efficiently grasp the status quo of building energy-related research. Rather than relying on manual inspections, advanced data analytics (such as text mining) can be used to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness in literature reviews. This article proposes a text mining-based approach for the automatic identification of major research trends in the field of building energy management. In total, 5712 articles (from 1972 to 2019) are analyzed. The word2vec model is used to optimize the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) results, and social networks are adopted to visualize the inter-topic relationships. The results are presented using the Gephi visualization platform. Based on inter-topic relevance and topic evolutions, in-depth analysis has been conducted to reveal research trends and hot topics in the field of building energy management. The res... [more]
167. LAPSE:2023.26239
Parameters Identification of Equivalent Model of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG) Wind Farm Based on Analysis of Trajectory Sensitivity
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: improved GLPSO hybrid algorithm, parameter identification, PMSG, trajectory sensitivity
As wind farms have great influences on power system stability, it is essential to develop an adaptive as well as robust equivalent model of it. In this paper, a detailed equivalent model of PMSG wind farm and initialization method is developed. The trajectory sensitivity of parameters is analyzed. Then, the key parameters are estimated using improved Genetic Learning Particle Swarm Optimization (GLPSO) hybrid algorithm with phasor measurement unit (PMU). The description and generalization capability, stability for parameter identification of the equivalent model under wake effects, and when some wind turbines are off-line or wind speed is unknown after an event are analyzed. The maximum differences between the values of estimated parameters and their real ones are less than 10% for the proportional magnification constant of DC voltage controller Kp2 and grid side current controller Kp3. The convergence rate and global optimization performance of the improved GLPSO hybrid algorithm is 0... [more]
168. LAPSE:2023.26052
Thermal Bridge Modeling and a Dynamic Analysis Method Using the Analogy of a Steady-State Thermal Bridge Analysis and System Identification Process for Building Energy Simulation: Methodology and Validation
March 31, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: modeling and dynamic analysis, system identification, thermal bridge
It is challenging to apply heat flow through a thermal bridge, which requires the analysis of 2D or 3D heat transfer to building energy simulation (BES). Research on the dynamic analysis of thermal bridges has been underway for many years, but their utilization remains low in BESs. This paper proposes a thermal bridge modeling and a dynamic analysis method that can be easily applied to BESs. The main idea begins with an analogy of the steady-state analysis of thermal bridges. As with steady-state analysis, the proposed method first divides the thermal bridge into a clear wall, where the heat flow is uniform, and the sections that are not the clear wall (the thermal bridge part). For the clear wall part, the method used in existing BESs is applied and analyzed. The thermal bridge part (TB part) is modeled with the linear time-invariant system (LTI system) and the system identification process is performed to find the transfer function. Then, the heat flow is obtained via a linear combin... [more]
169. LAPSE:2023.26046
Multidisciplinary Characterization of Unconventional Reservoirs Based on Correlation of Well and Seismic Data
March 31, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: brittle spot identification, brittleness, elastic properties, rock physics, shale reservoir
Combinatorial analysis of key petrophysical parameters can provide valuable information about subsurface hydrocarbon reservoirs. This is particularly important for reservoirs with unconventional rock formations that, due to the low permeability, need to be stimulated by fracturing treatment to provide fluid flow to the exploitation wellbore. In this article, based on data from unconventional shale formations (N Poland), we outline how independent sets of elastic and petrophysical parameters and other reservoir features can be co-analyzed to estimate the fracture susceptibility of shale intervals, which are characterized by a high total organic carbon (TOC) content and high porosity. These features were determined by analysis of each horizon’s elastic and mineralogical brittleness index (BI). These two variants were calculated first in 1D; integrated with the seismic data and finally compared with other parameters such as acoustic impedance, ratio of compressional and shear wave velocit... [more]
170. LAPSE:2023.25722
Battery Models for Battery Powered Applications: A Comparative Study
March 29, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: battery electric vehicles, battery model, e-mobility, electric vehicles, parameter identification
Battery models have gained great importance in recent years, thanks to the increasingly massive penetration of electric vehicles in the transport market. Accurate battery models are needed to evaluate battery performances and design an efficient battery management system. Different modeling approaches are available in literature, each one with its own advantages and disadvantages. In general, more complex models give accurate results, at the cost of higher computational efforts and time-consuming and costly laboratory testing for parametrization. For these reasons, for early stage evaluation and design of battery management systems, models with simple parameter identification procedures are the most appropriate and feasible solutions. In this article, three different battery modeling approaches are considered, and their parameters’ identification are described. Two of the chosen models require no laboratory tests for parametrization, and most of the information are derived from the man... [more]
171. LAPSE:2023.25652
Is Secure Communication in the R2I (Robot-to-Infrastructure) Model Possible? Identification of Threats
March 29, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: cybersecurity, DSRC (dedicated short-range communications), R2I (robot-to-infrastructure), robot companion
The increase in the role of companion robots in everyday life is inevitable, and their safe communication with the infrastructure is one of the fundamental challenges faced by designers. There are many challenges in the robot’s communication with the environment, widely described in the literature on the subject. The threats that scientists believe have the most significant impact on the robot’s communication include denial-of-service (DoS) attacks, satellite signal spoofing, external eavesdropping, spamming, broadcast tampering, and man-in-the-middle attacks. In this article, the authors attempted to identify communication threats in the new robot-to-infrastructure (R2I) model based on available solutions used in transport, e.g., vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I), taking into account the threats already known affecting the robot’s sensory systems. For this purpose, all threats that may occur in the robot’s communication with the environment were analyzed. Then the risk analysis was carr... [more]
172. LAPSE:2023.25594
A Multi-Model Probability Based Two-Layer Fusion Modeling Approach of Supercapacitor for Electric Vehicles
March 29, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: fusion model, Genetic Algorithm, parameter identification, supercapacitor
The improvement of the supercapacitor model redundancy is a significant method to guarantee the reliability of the power system in electric vehicle application. In order to enhance the accuracy of the supercapacitor model, eight conventional supercapacitor models were selected for parameter identification by genetic algorithm, and the model accuracies based on standard diving cycle are further discussed. Then, three fusion modeling approaches including Bayesian fusion, residual normalization fusion, and state of charge (SOC) fragment fusion are presented and compared. In order to further improve the accuracy of these models, a two-layer fusion model based on SOC fragments is proposed in this paper. Compared with other fusion models, the root mean square error (RMSE), maximum error, and mean error of the two-layer fusion model can be reduced by at least 23.04%, 8.70%, and 30.13%, respectively. Moreover, the two-layer fusion model is further verified at 10, 25, and 40 °C, and the RMSE ca... [more]
173. LAPSE:2023.25482
Identification of Similar Seismic Waves Using the Phase-Only Correlation Function and Wavelet Transform
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: acoustic emission, cluster analysis, multiplet, phase-only correlation, wavelet transform
Accurately determined acoustic emission (AE) locations provide significant information on fracture systems, such as the orientation of fractures in a geothermal reservoir. To determine the relative source locations among a group of seismic events, similar AE waveforms must be detected and the relative arrival times of the P and S waves must be determined. In this paper, a method to identify similar AE waveforms is proposed, in which wavelet transform scalograms are used to determine the phase-only correlation function. The proposed method was applied to arbitrarily selected seismic waveforms, and its feasibility was evaluated by comparing the results with those obtained when the phase-only correlation function was obtained by using Fourier transform results.
174. LAPSE:2023.25404
Complementary Feature Extractions for Event Identification in Power Systems Using Multi-Channel Convolutional Neural Network
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: convolutional neural network (CNN), event classification, phasor measurement unit (PMU), successive event, synchrophasor
This paper presents an event identification process in complementary feature extractions via convolutional neural network (CNN)-based event classification. The CNN is a suitable deep learning technique for addressing the two-dimensional power system data as it directly derives information from a measurement signal database instead of modeling transient phenomena, where the measured synchrophasor data in the power systems are allocated by time and space domains. The dynamic signatures in phasor measurement unit (PMU) signals are analyzed based on the starting point of the subtransient signals, as well as the fluctuation signature in the transient signal. For fast decision and protective operations, the use of narrow band time window is recommended to reduce the acquisition delay, where a wide time window provides high accuracy due to the use of large amounts of data. In this study, two separate data preprocessing methods and multichannel CNN structures are constructed to provide validat... [more]
175. LAPSE:2023.25375
Identification and Classification of Global Theoretical Trends and Supply Chain Development Directions
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: bibliometric analysis, consumption changes, COVID-19 pandemic, Delphi, environmental changes, Industry 4.0, knowledge visualization, Supply Chain
The study presented in the paper is an innovative research approach. It is the result of linking the concept of supply chain management and global changes, which at present are clearly visible on a global scale, with research methodology based on the systematic literature review, knowledge visualization and an expert method that makes use of knowledge, experience and opinions of experts in a given field. This research is about a Delphi study that was conducted in the context of the development of trends of supply chain and global changes, based on the findings of a systematic literature review. The qualitative study was conducted with 30 Delphi experts in the field of the supply chain. This progressive approach to the research topic allowed us to discover key global trends and modern supply chain development directions in the context of global changes, as well as their assessment and projection of the developmental potential of these trends.