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Records with Subject: Energy Management
Showing records 29 to 53 of 1388. [First] Page: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Last
Bioprocessing of Waste for Renewable Chemicals and Fuels to Promote Bioeconomy
Gayathri Priya Iragavarapu, Syed Shahed Imam, Omprakash Sarkar, Srinivasula Venkata Mohan, Young-Cheol Chang, Motakatla Venkateswar Reddy, Sang-Hyoun Kim, Naresh Kumar Amradi
May 24, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: biohydrogen, biomethane, organic waste, volatile fatty acids, waste biorefinery
The world’s rising energy needs, and the depletion of fossil resources demand a shift from fossil-based feedstocks to organic waste to develop a competitive, resource-efficient, and low-carbon sustainable economy in the long run. It is well known that the production of fuels and chemicals via chemical routes is advantageous because it is a well-established technology with low production costs. However, the use of toxic/environmentally harmful and expensive catalysts generates toxic intermediates, making the process unsustainable. Alternatively, utilization of renewable resources for bioprocessing with a multi-product approach that aligns novel integration improves resource utilization and contributes to the “green economy”. The present review discusses organic waste bioprocessing through the anaerobic fermentation (AF) process to produce biohydrogen (H2), biomethane (CH4), volatile fatty acids (VFAs) and medium chain fatty acids (MCFA). Furthermore, the roles of photosynthetic bacteria... [more]
Stock Price Forecasting of IBEX35 Companies in the Petroleum, Electricity, and Gas Industries
Ivan Borisov Todorov, Fernando Sánchez Lasheras
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: electricity and gas companies, exponential smoothing, petroleum companies, publicly traded companies, stock price forecasting, time series forecasting
In recent years, time series forecasting has become an essential tool for stock market analysts to make informed decisions regarding stock prices. The present research makes use of various exponential smoothing forecasting methods. These include exponential smoothing with multiplicative errors and additive trend (MAN), exponential smoothing with multiplicative errors (MNN), and simple exponential smoothing with additive errors (ANN) for the forecasting of the stock prices of six different companies in the petroleum, electricity, and gas industries that are listed in the IBEX35 index. The database employed for this research contained the IBEX35 index values and stock closing prices from 3 January 2000 to 30 December 2022. The models trained with this data were employed in order to forecast the index value and the closing prices of the stocks under study from 2 January 2023 to 24 March 2023. The results obtained confirmed that although none of the proposed models outperformed the rest fo... [more]
Realistic μPMU Data Generation for Different Real-Time Events in an Unbalanced Distribution Network
Abdul Haleem Medattil Ibrahim, Madhu Sharma, Vetrivel Subramaniam Rajkumar
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: data generation, distribution network, fault events, load flow analysis, modeling and simulation, real-time events, RMS simulation, situational awareness, μPMUs
Monitoring, protection, and control processes are becoming more complex as distributed energy resources (DERs) penetrate distribution networks (DNs). This is due to the inherent nature of power DNs and the bi-directional flow of current from various sources to the loads. To improve the system’s situational awareness, the grid dynamics of the entire DER integration processes must be carefully monitored using synchronized high-resolution real-time measurement data from physical devices installed in the DN. μPMUs have been introduced into the DN to help with this. In comparison to traditional measurement devices, μPMUs can measure voltage, current, and their phasors, in addition to frequency and rate of frequency change (ROCOF). In this study, an approach to generating realistic event data for a real utility DN utilizing strategically installed μPMUs is proposed. The method employs an IEEE 34 test feeder with 12 μPMUs installed in strategic locations to generate real-time events-based rea... [more]
Wind Retrieval from Constellations of Small SAR Satellites: Potential for Offshore Wind Resource Assessment
Merete Badger, Aito Fujita, Krzysztof Orzel, Daniel Hatfield, Mark Kelly
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: FINO3, North Sea, offshore, resource assessment, sampling, satellite, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), wind energy, wind retrieval
The planning of offshore wind energy projects requires wind observations over long periods for the establishment of wind speed distributions. In the marine environment, high-quality in situ observations are sparse and restricted to point locations. Numerical modeling is typically used to determine the spatial variability of the wind resource. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations from satellites can be used for retrieval of wind fields over the ocean at a high spatial resolution. The recent launch of constellations of small SAR satellites by private companies will improve the sampling of SAR scenes significantly over the coming years compared with the current sampling rates offered by multi-purpose SAR missions operated by public space agencies. For the first time, wind fields are retrieved from a series of StriX SAR scenes delivered by Synspective (Japan) and also from Sentinel-1 scenes delivered by the European Space Agency. The satellite winds are compared with wind speed obse... [more]
Predicting Energy Consumption in Residential Buildings Using Advanced Machine Learning Algorithms
Fateme Dinmohammadi, Yuxuan Han, Mahmood Shafiee
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy consumption, Machine Learning, Net-Zero, prediction, residential building
The share of residential building energy consumption in global energy consumption has rapidly increased after the COVID-19 crisis. The accurate prediction of energy consumption under different indoor and outdoor conditions is an essential step towards improving energy efficiency and reducing carbon footprints in the residential building sector. In this paper, a PSO-optimized random forest classification algorithm is proposed to identify the most important factors contributing to residential heating energy consumption. A self-organizing map (SOM) approach is applied for feature dimensionality reduction, and an ensemble classification model based on the stacking method is trained on the dimensionality-reduced data. The results show that the stacking model outperforms the other models with an accuracy of 95.4% in energy consumption prediction. Finally, a causal inference method is introduced in addition to Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) to explore and analyze the factors influencing... [more]
The Evolution of Energy Management Maturity in Organizations Subject to Mandatory Energy Audits: Findings from Italy
Annalisa Santolamazza, Vito Introna, Vittorio Cesarotti, Fabrizio Martini
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy audit, Energy Efficiency, energy efficiency directive, energy management, maturity model
Promoting energy efficiency is a key element of the strategic commitment of the European Community. Prominent among the binding measures established by the 2012 Energy Efficiency Directive to further this vision is the requirement for large companies to conduct energy audits every four years. After receiving the second cycle of energy audit reports in December 2019, a new description of the energy situation of Italian companies was made available. This presented the previously inaccessible possibility of comparing the two situations reported in 2015 and 2019 to assess the development of energy efficiency practices in organizations subject to the legislative obligation of energy audits in the country. To this end, in collaboration with the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), a project was initiated with the aim of developing the tools and methodologies necessary to assess in more detail the evolution that has occurred in the... [more]
Investigation of Degradation of Solar Photovoltaics: A Review of Aging Factors, Impacts, and Future Directions toward Sustainable Energy Management
Tuhibur Rahman, Ahmed Al Mansur, Molla Shahadat Hossain Lipu, Md. Siddikur Rahman, Ratil H. Ashique, Mohamad Abou Houran, Rajvikram Madurai Elavarasan, Eklas Hossain
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: aging factors, degradation, efficiency, lifespan, solar PV
The degradation of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules is caused by a number of factors that have an impact on their effectiveness, performance, and lifetime. One of the reasons contributing to the decline in solar PV performance is the aging issue. This study comprehensively examines the effects and difficulties associated with aging and degradation in solar PV applications. In light of this, this article examines and analyzes many aging factors, including temperature, humidity, dust, discoloration, cracks, and delamination. Additionally, the effects of aging factors on solar PV performance, including the lifetime, efficiency, material degradation, overheating, and mismatching, are critically investigated. Furthermore, the main drawbacks, issues, and challenges associated with solar PV aging are addressed to identify any unfulfilled research needs. Finally, this paper provides new directions for future research, best practices, and recommendations to overcome aging issues and achieve the... [more]
Virtual Power Plant with Renewable Energy Sources and Energy Storage Systems for Sustainable Power Grid-Formation, Control Techniques and Demand Response
Jiaqi Liu, Hongji Hu, Samson S. Yu, Hieu Trinh
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: demand-side frequency ancillary services, energy management systems, energy storage systems, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, sustainable power grids, virtual power plants
As the climate crisis worsens, power grids are gradually transforming into a more sustainable state through renewable energy sources (RESs), energy storage systems (ESSs), and smart loads. Virtual power plants (VPP) are an emerging concept that can flexibly integrate distributed energy resources (DERs), managing manage the power output of each DER unit, as well as the power consumption of loads, to balance electricity supply and demand in real time. VPPs can participate in energy markets, enable self-scheduling of RESs, facilitate energy trading and sharing, and provide demand-side frequency control ancillary services (D-FCAS) to enhance the stability of the system frequency. As a result, studies considering VPPs have become the focus of recent energy research, with the purpose of reducing the uncertainty resulting from RESs distributed in the power grid and improving technology related to energy management system (EMS). However, comprehensive reviews of VPPs considering their formatio... [more]
A Systematic Review of European Electricity Market Design Options
Samuli Honkapuro, Jasmin Jaanto, Salla Annala
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: electricity market design, electricity market design, electricity market mechanisms, electricity markets, European electricity market model, power markets
The European electricity market model continues to evolve in the face of new challenges. This systematic literature review aims to assess the status of research and discussion on the current model and its market mechanisms. In addition, it aims to ascertain the kinds of modelling tools that have been used to model market mechanisms or formulate proposals for changes to current practice. The results show that the challenges of individual market mechanisms have been identified quite extensively in the research sample. However, the number of papers identified for inclusion in the systematic literature review was quite small, from which it can be concluded that there are surprisingly few publications focusing on this particular topic. Nevertheless, the trend indicates a probable increase in research in the subject area in the future. The general standpoint among researchers seems to be that the goals set by the EU are, as it were, a law of nature that cannot be deviated from. Consequently,... [more]
Research on Multiple Load Short-Term Forecasting Model of Integrated Energy Distribution System Based on Mogrifier-Quantum Weighted MELSTM
Peng Song, Zhisheng Zhang
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: integrated energy distribution system, memory enhancement mechanism, mogrifier, multiple load forecasting, quantum weighted neuron
Accurate and efficient short-term forecasting of multiple loads is of great significance to the operation control and scheduling of integrated energy distribution systems. In order to improve the effect of load forecasting, a mogrifier-quantum weighted memory enhancement long short-term memory (Mogrifier-QWMELSTM) neural network forecasting model is proposed. Compared with the conventional LSTM neural network model, the model proposed in this paper has three improvements in model structure and model composition. First, the mogrifier is added to make the data fully interact with each other. This addition can help enhance the correlation between the front and rear data and improve generalization, which is the main disadvantage of LSTM neural network. Second, the memory enhancement mechanism is added on the forget gate to realize the extraction and recovery of forgotten information. The addition can help improve the gradient transmission ability in the learning process of the neural netwo... [more]
Unraveling the COVID-19 Pandemic’s Impact on South Korea’s Macroeconomy: Unearthing Novel Transmission Channels within the Energy Sector and Production Technologies
Yugang He
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Bayesian estimation, COVID-19 pandemic, impulse response functions, macroeconomic indicators, oil price, production technology
As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, Korea’s economy has experienced significant setbacks. Thus, this article examines the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic on Korea’s key macroeconomic indicators via the transmission channels of oil prices and production technology. Using Bayesian estimation and impulse response functions for empirical investigation, the results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the reduction in firm production, consumption of oil-based goods, employment, and investment. Increasingly, households rely on non-oil goods rather than oil-based ones. Similarly, the results suggest that the drop in production technology levels brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic has a stronger impact on business output and investment but a lesser influence on household employment. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a decline in household non-oil consumption as well as household and business consumption of oil-based goods. To sum up, the existing Korean literature on... [more]
Investigation of the Effect of Current Protections in Conditions of Single-Phase Ground Fault through Transient Resistance in the Electrical Networks of Mining Enterprises
Denis Ustinov, Aleksander Nazarychev, Denis Pelenev, Kirill Babyr, Andrey Pugachev
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distribution network, incomplete single-phase ground fault, relay protection and automation, sensitivity factor, transient resistance, zero-sequence current
The efficiency of electrical complexes depends directly on the level of power supply system reliability, which comprises extensive and branched distribution networks. A complex of single-phase ground fault (SPGF) relay protection and automation devices (RPA) is used to reduce the economic losses from the failure of the electrical receivers’ distribution networks. This paper presents a study of the protection sensitivity factor, taking into account the influence of the network capacity and the resistance during a fault. The results of this study determined the minimum permissible values of the sensitivity factor that ensures the stable operation of the protection device. This was achieved by taking into account the influence of the transient resistance at the point of short circuit. The practical significance of the study is as follows: the obtained characteristics will allow for the development of new functional logic circuits for SPGF protection. The practical implementation of the ob... [more]
Information Value of Individual and Consolidated Financial Statements for Indicative Liquidity Assessment of Polish Energy Groups in 2018−2021
Leszek Borowiec, Marzena Kacprzak, Agnieszka Król
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: consolidated financial statement of an energy group, financial information value, indicative analysis, individual financial statement, managing financial information, managing financial liquidity
Electricity is currently one of the most popular sources of energy. Considering such widespread use of electric energy, we may ask, what is the economic cost of producing and supplying it? The climate crisis and the social pressure associated with it have triggered the necessity to make further investments in renewable and low-emission energy sources, while the COVID-19 pandemic has abruptly limited electricity consumption in industry. All these factors can have an impact on disruptions or loss in the liquidity of companies responsible for supplying electricity to end users. Guaranteeing cash flow for energy sector entities is a prerequisite for energy supply continuity. In this context, the selection and application of reliable sources of information are vital for the management of the financial liquidity of energy sector entities. The aim of this article is to prove the value of the financial information of individual (IFR) and consolidated financial statements (CFR) essential for th... [more]
Sustainability Reporting in Energy Companies—Is There a Link between Social Disclosures, the Experience and Market Value?
Hanna E. Czaja-Cieszyńska, Dominika Kordela
May 23, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy sector, ESG reporting, non-financial reporting, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, responsibility, social disclosures, sustainability reporting
As a result of the dissemination of the sustainability concept, social disclosures have become an important area of non-financial reporting, and the energy sector is no exception. The purpose of our article is a multi-faceted evaluation of sustainability reports published by companies operating in the Polish energy sector, from the perspective of social disclosures. The study involved the Polish listed companies that made up the WIG-Energia index. The time scope of the study covers the 2017−2021 period. In total, 54 non-financial reports were analyzed. In the first place, a comparative analysis was carried out to assess the social disclosures made by the WIG-Energia companies against the background of the biggest and the most liquid (blue chip) WIG20 companies. All the applied tools: ESG rating, NFR_S index, and multidimensional data visualization, have confirmed that the energy companies year by year have been presenting larger and larger extents of social disclosures. At the same tim... [more]
Cenozoic Depositional Evolution and Stratal Patterns in the Western Pearl River Mouth Basin, South China Sea: Implications for Hydrocarbon Exploration
Entao Liu, Yong Deng, Xudong Lin, Detian Yan, Si Chen, Xianbin Shi
May 2, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: depositional system, hydrocarbon exploration, Pearl River Mouth Basin, sequence architecture, stacking pattern
Investigating the deposition evolution and stratal stacking patterns in continental rift basins is critical not only to better understand the mechanism of basin fills but also to reveal the enrichment regularity of hydrocarbon reservoirs. The Pearl River Mouth Basin (PRMB) is a petroliferous continental rift basin located in the northern continental shelf of the South China Sea. In this study, the depositional evolution process and stacking pattern of the Zhu III Depression, western PRMB were studied through the integration of 3D seismic data, core data, and well logs. Five types of depositional systems formed from the Eocene to the Miocene, including the fan delta, meandering river delta, tidal flat, lacustrine system, and neritic shelf system. The representative depositional systems changed from the proximal fan delta and lacustrine system in the Eocene−early Oligocene, to the tidal flat and fan delta in the late Oligocene, and then the neritic shelf system in the Miocene. The statal... [more]
Semantic-Similarity-Based Schema Matching for Management of Building Energy Data
Zhiyu Pan, Guanchen Pan, Antonello Monti
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: active learning, schema matching, semantic similarity
The increase in heterogeneous data in the building energy domain creates a difficult challenge for data integration. Schema matching, which maps the raw data from the building energy domain to a generic data model, is the necessary step in data integration and provides a unique representation. Only a small amount of labeled data for schema matching exists and it is time-consuming and labor-intensive to manually label data. This paper applies semantic-similarity methods to the automatic schema-mapping process by combining knowledge from natural language processing, which reduces the manual effort in heterogeneous data integration. The active-learning method is applied to solve the lack-of-labeled-data problem in schema matching. The results of the schema matching with building-energy-domain data show the pre-trained language model provides a massive improvement in the accuracy of schema matching and the active-learning method greatly reduces the amount of labeled data required.
Energy Savings in Production Processes as a Key Component of the Global Energy Problem—The Introduction to the Special Issue of Energies
Wieslaw Urban
April 28, 2023 (v1)
It is critical to address energy issues as we move through the first half of the twenty-first century, as societies become firmly aware of the consequences of resource scarcity and the disastrous consequences of climate change from human activity (especially heavy industry) [...]
Green Energy Economies Are Continually On-Going
Jin-Li Hu
April 28, 2023 (v1)
The Special Issue on “Green Energy Economies” was open for submission on 30 March 2021 and closed on 30 March 2022 [...]
Will Oil Price Volatility Cause Market Panic?
Min Hong, Xiaolei Wang, Zhenghui Li
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: market panic, oil price volatility, VIX index
It is generally known that violent oil price volatility will cause market panic; however, the extent to which is worthy of empirical test. Firstly, this paper employs the TVP-VAR model to analyze the time-varying impacts of oil price volatility on the panic index using monthly data from January 1990 to November 2021. Then, after using the SVAR model to decompose the oil price volatility, this paper uses the PDL model to analyze the heterogeneous impacts of oil price volatility from different sources. Finally, based on the results of oil decomposition, this paper uses the TARCH model to analyze the asymmetric impacts of oil price volatility in different directions. The results show that: (1) oil price volatility can indeed cause market panic, and these impacts exhibit time-varying characteristics; (2) oil price volatility from different sources has different impacts on the panic index, and the order from high to low is oil-specific demand shocks, supply shocks, and aggregate demand shoc... [more]
Forecasting Regional Carbon Prices in China Based on Secondary Decomposition and a Hybrid Kernel-Based Extreme Learning Machine
Yunhe Cheng, Beibei Hu
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: forecasting carbon price, hybrid kernel-based extreme learning machine, secondary decomposition, sparrow search algorithm
Accurately forecasting carbon prices is key to managing associated risks in the financial market for carbon. To this end, the traditional strategy does not adequately decompose carbon prices, and the kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) with a single kernel function struggles to adapt to the nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and multiple frequencies of regional carbon prices in China. This study constructs a model, called the VMD-ICEEMDAN-RE-SSA-HKELM model, to forecast regional carbon prices in China based on the idea of ‘decomposition−reconstruction−integration’. The VMD is first used to decompose carbon prices and the ICEEMDAN is then used to decompose the residual term that contains complex information. To reduce the systematic error caused by increases in the mode components of carbon price, range entropy (RE) is used to reconstruct the results of its secondary decomposition. Following this, HKELM is optimized by the sparrow search algorithm and used to forecast each subseries of c... [more]
Trend- and Periodicity-Trait-Driven Gasoline Demand Forecasting
Jindai Zhang, Jinlou Zhao
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: decomposition-ensemble forecasting, gasoline demand prediction, periodicity trait, trend trait
In order to make reasonable production-sales-stock decision-making for gasoline production enterprises, it is necessary to make an accurate prediction of the gasoline demand. However, gasoline demand is often affected by many factors, which makes it very difficult to predict. Therefore, this paper tries to construct a trend- and periodicity-trait-driven decomposition-ensemble forecasting model in terms of trend and periodicity characteristics of gasoline demand data. In order to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, the demand data of a typical gasoline product-93# gasoline in China, is used. The empirical results show that the proposed trend- and periodicity-trait-driven decomposition-ensemble forecasting model can achieve better prediction results than the single models, indicating that the proposed methodology can be used as a feasible solution to predict the gasoline demand series with trend and periodicity traits.
Selection of Smart Grids Projects of Common Interest—Past Experiences and Future Perspectives
Julija Vasiljevska, Tilemahos Efthimiadis
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, electricity, investment, regulation, smart grids
This paper discusses the authors’ experience gained with the selection of Projects of Common Interest (PCIs) in the thematic area of smart grids deployment, in the context of the TEN-E Regulation. It presents the framework for assessing candidate electricity smart grids for inclusion in the European Union list of PCIs, in view of the TEN-E Regulation and the existing literature on assessment methodologies for energy infrastructure projects. It also provides an overview of smart grid projects included in the PCI lists, with the aim to shed light on the types of projects and their contribution to accelerating the development of European cross-border energy infrastructure projects to respond to EU energy and climate targets. The paper concludes with discussion of recent regulatory initiatives and their potential implications on the presented methodology.
A Static and Dynamic Analysis of Photovoltaic Penetration into MV Distribution Network
Mohammad Reza Maghami, Jagadeesh Pasupuleti, Chee Mei Ling
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: dynamic simulation, power loss, solar energy, static simulation, voltage violations
Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming increasingly prevalent worldwide, particularly in power distribution networks. However, their intermittency and integration into distribution networks can have adverse effects. This study investigates the impact of large-scale solar integration into a typical Malaysian power grid network, focusing on voltage stability, short circuits, and power loss under peak and no-load conditions. Using Digsilent Power Factory software, static and dynamic power flow analyses were performed on a network consisting of two 132/11 kV transformers, an 11 kV busbar, and 112 loads served through eight feeders. Solar PV of 100 kW was integrated into each node, and the maximum allowable solar grid connection level was determined. The static results show that there were no violations in no-load conditions at 100 kW PV penetration. However, during peak load, there were violations at 0% PV penetration, but by increasing the level of solar grid connection to 60% (60 kW), th... [more]
Power and Energy Management Strategies for a Microgrid with the Presence of Electric Vehicles and CAES Considering the Uncertainty of Resources
Reza Doosti, Alireza Rezazadeh, Mostafa Sedighizadeh
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Compressed Air Energy Storage, energy management, microgrid, uncertainty of resources, V2G
We are witnessing the growth of microgrid technology and the development of electric vehicles (EVs) in the world. These microgrids seek demand response (DR) and energy storage for better management of their resources. In this research, microgrids, including wind turbines, photovoltaics, battery charging/discharging, and compressed air energy storage (CAES), are considered. We will consider two scenarios under uncertainty: (a) planning a microgrid and DR without considering CAES, and (b) planning a microgrid and DR considering CAES. The cost of charging the battery in the second study decreased by $0.66 compared to the first study. The battery is charged with a difference of $0.7 compared to the case of the first study. We will also pay for unsupplied energy and excess energy in this microgrid. Then, we test the scheduling of vehicles to the grid (V2G) in the IEEE 33-bus network. The first framework for increasing network flexibility is the use of EVs as active loads. The scheduling of... [more]
Predicting Post-Production Biomass Prices
Aleksandra Górna, Alicja Szabelska-Beręsewicz, Marek Wieruszewski, Monika Starosta-Grala, Zygmunt Stanula, Anna Kożuch, Krzysztof Adamowicz
April 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ARIMA, bark, cyclicality, prediction, sawdust, seasonality of supply, timber market, Winters-Holt, wood biomass prices, woodchips
This paper presents the application of prediction in the analysis of market price volatility in Polish conditions of wood processing by-products in the form of biomass. The ARIMA model, which takes into account cyclical, seasonal, irregular fluctuations of historical data on the basis of which the forecast and long-term trends of selected wood products were made, was used in predicting prices. Comparisons were made between the ARIMA prediction method and the multiplicative Winters−Holt model. During the period studied (2017−2022), the changes in the market price of biomass were characterized by a wide spread of values. On average, the price of these products increased from 2017 to the end of 2022 by 125%. The price prediction analysis showed seasonal fluctuations in the case of wood chips. The uncertainty in price prediction is due to changes in supply resulting from the influence of global factors. The Diebold−Mariano test of matching accuracy confirms that the price prediction of the... [more]
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