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Records with Keyword: Artificial Intelligence
101. LAPSE:2023.23055
A Novel Protection Scheme for Solar Photovoltaic Generator Connected Networks Using Hybrid Harmony Search Algorithm-Bollinger Bands Approach
March 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Bollinger Bands, directional overcurrent relay, Harmony Search Algorithm, microgrid protection, optimum relay coordination, power system protection, solar photovoltaic generator, statistical test, voltage restrained overcurrent relay
This paper introduces a new protection system for solar photovoltaic generator (SPVG)-connected networks. The system is a combination of voltage-restrained overcurrent relays (VROCRs) and directional overcurrent relays (DOCRs). The DOCRs are implemented to sense high fault current on the grid side, and VROCRs are deployed to sense low fault current supplied by the SPVG. Furthermore, a novel challenge for the optimal coordination of DOCRs-DOCRs and DOCRs-VROCRs is formulated. Due to the inclusion of additional constraints of VROCR, the relay coordination problem becomes more complicated. To solve this complex problem, a hybrid Harmony Search Algorithm-Bollinger Bands (HSA-BB) method is proposed. Also, the lower and upper bands in BB are dynamically adjusted with the generation number to assist the HSA in the exploration and exploitation stages. The proposed method is implemented on three different SPVG-connected networks. To exhibit the effectiveness of the proposed method, the obtained... [more]
102. LAPSE:2023.22752
Combining Artificial Intelligence with Physics-Based Methods for Probabilistic Renewable Energy Forecasting
March 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, renewable energy forecasting, solar energy, wind energy
A modern renewable energy forecasting system blends physical models with artificial intelligence to aid in system operation and grid integration. This paper describes such a system being developed for the Shagaya Renewable Energy Park, which is being developed by the State of Kuwait. The park contains wind turbines, photovoltaic panels, and concentrated solar renewable energy technologies with storage capabilities. The fully operational Kuwait Renewable Energy Prediction System (KREPS) employs artificial intelligence (AI) in multiple portions of the forecasting structure and processes, both for short-range forecasting (i.e., the next six hours) as well as for forecasts several days out. These AI methods work synergistically with the dynamical/physical models employed. This paper briefly describes the methodology used for each of the AI methods, how they are blended, and provides a preliminary assessment of their relative value to the prediction system. Each operational AI component add... [more]
103. LAPSE:2023.22444
Examining the Potential of a Random Forest Derived Cloud Mask from GOES-R Satellites to Improve Solar Irradiance Forecasting
March 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, random forests, remote sensing, solar power forecasting, supervised learning
In order for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to correctly predict solar irradiance reaching the earth’s surface for more accurate solar power forecasting, it is important to initialize the NWP model with accurate cloud information. Knowing where the clouds are located is the first step. Using data from geostationary satellites is an attractive possibility given the low latencies and high spatio-temporal resolution provided nowadays. Here, we explore the potential of utilizing the random forest machine learning method to generate the cloud mask from GOES-16 radiances. We first perform a predictor selection process to determine the optimal predictor set for the random forest predictions of the horizontal cloud fraction and then determine the appropriate threshold to generate the cloud mask prediction. The results show that the random forest method performs as well as the GOES-16 level 2 clear sky mask product with the ability to customize the threshold for under or over predict... [more]
104. LAPSE:2023.21753
Energetic Map Data Imputation: A Machine Learning Approach
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, classification, electric mobility, missing data imputation, regression, supervised machine learning
Despite a rapid increase of public interest for electric mobility, several factors still impede Battery Electric Vehicles’ (BEVs) acceptance. These factors include their limited range and inconvenient charging. For mitigating these limitations to users, certain BEV-specific services are required. Therefore, such services provide a reliable range prediction and routing, including charging-stop planning. The basis of these services is a precise and reliable Energy Demand (ED) prediction. For that matter, aggregated fleet-vehicle data combined with map-specific data (e.g., road slope) form an energetic map, which can serve for precise ED predictions. However, data coverage is paramount for these predictions, more specifically regarding gapless energetic maps. This work aims to eliminate the energetic map’s gaps using two Machine Learning (ML) approaches: regression and classification. The proposed ML solution builds upon the synergy between map-information and crowdsourced driving profile... [more]
105. LAPSE:2023.21448
Review of Computational Intelligence Methods for Local Energy Markets at the Power Distribution Level to Facilitate the Integration of Distributed Energy Resources: State-of-the-art and Future Research
March 22, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: aggregator, Artificial Intelligence, computational intelligence, distributed energy resources, distributed generation, distribution systems operation, local energy markets, smart distribution system, transactive energy
The massive integration of distributed energy resources in power distribution systems in combination with the active network management that is implemented thanks to innovative information and communication technologies has created the smart distribution systems of the new era. This new environment introduces challenges for the optimal operation of the smart distribution network. Local energy markets at power distribution level are highly investigated in recent years. The aim of local energy markets is to optimize the objectives of market participants, e.g., to minimize the network operation cost for the distribution network operator, to maximize the profit of the private distributed energy resources, and to minimize the electricity cost for the consumers. Several models and methods have been suggested for the design and optimal operation of local energy markets. This paper introduces an overview of the state-of-the-art computational intelligence methods applied to the optimal operatio... [more]
106. LAPSE:2023.20807
Forecasting Energy Consumption of a Public Building Using Transformer and Support Vector Regression
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, building energy performance, building physics, CO2 emissions, energy consumption, Machine Learning, net zero energy building, transformer
Most of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) models currently used in energy forecasting are traditional and deterministic. Recently, a novel deep learning paradigm, called ‘transformer’, has been developed, which adopts the mechanism of self-attention. Transformers are designed to better process and predict sequential data sets (i.e., historical time records) as well as to track any relationship in the sequential data. So far, a few transformer-based applications have been established, but no industry-scale application exists to build energy forecasts. Accordingly, this study is the world’s first to establish a transformer-based model to estimate the energy consumption of a real-scale university library and benchmark with a baseline model (Support Vector Regression) SVR. With a large dataset from 1 September 2017 to 13 November 2021 with 30 min granularity, the results using four historical electricity readings to estimate one future reading demonstrate that the SVR (an R2 of 0.92) presen... [more]
107. LAPSE:2023.20791
Gear Wear Detection Based on Statistic Features and Heuristic Scheme by Using Data Fusion of Current and Vibration Signals
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, diagnosis, electrical machine, faults detection, industrial motors
Kinematic chains are ensembles of elements that integrate, among other components, with the induction motors, the mechanical couplings, and the loads to provide support to the industrial processes that require motion interchange. In this same line, the induction motor justifies its importance because this machine is the core that provides the power and generates the motion of the industrial process. However, also, it is possible to diagnose other types of faults that occur in other elements in the kinematic chain, which are reflected as problems in the motor operation. With this purpose, the coupling between the motor and the final load in the chain requires, in many situations, the use of a gearbox that balances the torque−velocity relationship. Thus, the gear wear in this component is addressed in many works, but the study of gradual wear has not been completely covered yet at different operating frequencies. Therefore, in this work, a methodology is proposed based on statistical fea... [more]
108. LAPSE:2023.20708
Parallel Automatic History Matching Algorithm Using Reinforcement Learning
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, history matching, parallel actor–critic, reinforcement learning, reservoir simulation
Reformulating the history matching problem from a least-square mathematical optimization problem into a Markov Decision Process introduces a method in which reinforcement learning can be utilized to solve the problem. This method provides a mechanism where an artificial deep neural network agent can interact with the reservoir simulator and find multiple different solutions to the problem. Such a formulation allows for solving the problem in parallel by launching multiple concurrent environments enabling the agent to learn simultaneously from all the environments at once, achieving significant speed up.
109. LAPSE:2023.20521
Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, artificial neural networks, ensemble prediction, wind speed forecasting
Wind energy production has had accelerated growth in recent years, reaching an annual increase of 17% in 2021. Wind speed plays a crucial role in the stability required for power grid operation. However, wind intermittency makes accurate forecasting a complicated process. Implementing new technologies has allowed the development of hybrid models and techniques, improving wind speed forecasting accuracy. Additionally, statistical and artificial intelligence methods, especially artificial neural networks, have been applied to enhance the results. However, there is a concern about identifying the main factors influencing the forecasting process and providing a basis for estimation with artificial neural network models. This paper reviews and classifies the forecasting models used in recent years according to the input model type, the pre-processing and post-processing technique, the artificial neural network model, the prediction horizon, the steps ahead number, and the evaluation metric.... [more]
110. LAPSE:2023.20348
Fault Location for Distribution Smart Grids: Literature Overview, Challenges, Solutions, and Future Trends
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Monitoring
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, fault classification, fault location, local measurement-based techniques, low-voltage and DC smart grids, microgrids, resiliency of smart grids, smart grids
Thanks to smart grids, more intelligent devices may now be integrated into the electric grid, which increases the robustness and resilience of the system. The integration of distributed energy resources is expected to require extensive use of communication systems as well as a variety of interconnected technologies for monitoring, protection, and control. The fault location and diagnosis are essential for the security and well-coordinated operation of these systems since there is also greater risk and different paths for a fault or contingency in the system. Considering smart distribution systems, microgrids, and smart automation substations, a full investigation of fault location in SGs over the distribution domain is still not enough, and this study proposes to analyze the fault location issues and common types of power failures in most of their physical components and communication infrastructure. In addition, we explore several fault location techniques in the smart grid’s distribu... [more]
111. LAPSE:2023.20338
Manufacturing Energy Efficiency and Industry 4.0
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Information Management
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, big data management in manufacturing, green manufacturing, industrial internet of things, industrial sustainability, industry 4.0 industrial cyber-physical systems (ICPS), machine learning for energy-efficient manufacturing
This Special Issue of Energies was devoted to the topic of “Manufacturing Energy Efficiency and Industry 4.0”. To a great extent, this issue follows the successful previous Special Issue on “Energy Efficiency of Manufacturing Processes and Systems”, which attracted some significant attention from scholars, practitioners, and policy-makers from all over the world. In total, six papers were published. The main topics included energy efficiency improvement in both the manufacturing process and system levels, as well as how this can be facilitated through the use of Industry 4.0.
112. LAPSE:2023.20317
Artificial Intelligence for Electric Vehicle Infrastructure: Demand Profiling, Data Augmentation, Demand Forecasting, Demand Explainability and Charge Optimisation
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, charge optimisation, demand explainability, demand forecasting, demand profiling, electric vehicles, EV data augmentation
Electric vehicles (EVs) are advancing the transport sector towards a robust and reliable carbon-neutral future. Given this increasing uptake of EVs, electrical grids and power networks are faced with the challenges of distributed energy resources, specifically the charge and discharge requirements of the electric vehicle infrastructure (EVI). Simultaneously, the rapid digitalisation of electrical grids and EVs has led to the generation of large volumes of data on the supply, distribution and consumption of energy. Artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms can be leveraged to draw insights and decisions from these datasets. Despite several recent work in this space, a comprehensive study of the practical value of AI in charge-demand profiling, data augmentation, demand forecasting, demand explainability and charge optimisation of the EVI has not been formally investigated. The objective of this study was to design, develop and evaluate a comprehensive AI framework that addresses this gap... [more]
113. LAPSE:2023.20182
AI and Energy Justice
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, energy justice, energy law, Machine Learning, PV curtailment, smart grids
Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are increasingly used to address problems in electricity systems that result from the growing supply of energy from dynamic renewable sources. Researchers have started experimenting with data-driven AI technologies to, amongst other uses, forecast energy usage, optimize cost-efficiency, monitor system health, and manage network congestion. These technologies are said to, on the one hand, empower consumers, increase transparency in pricing, and help maintain the affordability of electricity in the energy transition, while, on the other hand, they may decrease transparency, infringe on privacy, or lead to discrimination, to name a few concerns. One key concern is how AI will affect energy justice. Energy justice is a concept that has emerged predominantly in social science research to highlight that energy related decisions—in particular, as part of the energy transition—should produce just outcomes. The concept has been around for more than a deca... [more]
114. LAPSE:2023.20152
Predicting the Parameters of Vortex Bladeless Wind Turbine Using Deep Learning Method of Long Short-Term Memory
March 10, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Computational Fluid Dynamics, data science, deep learning, Energy, Energy Conversion, long short-term memory, Machine Learning, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, wind turbine
From conventional turbines to cutting-edge bladeless turbines, energy harvesting from wind has been well explored by researchers for more than a century. The vortex bladeless wind turbine (VBT) is considered an advanced design that alternatively harvests energy from oscillation. This research investigates enhancing the output electrical power of VBT through simulation of the fluid−solid interactions (FSI), leading to a comprehensive dataset for predicting procedure and optimal design. Hence, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method, due to its time-series prediction accuracy, is proposed to model the power of VBT from the collected data. To find the relationship between the parameters and the variables used in this research, a correlation matrix is further presented. According to the value of 0.3 for the root mean square error (RMSE), a comparative analysis between the simulation results and their predictions indicates that the LSTM method is suitable for modeling. Furthermore, the LST... [more]
115. LAPSE:2023.20003
A Simulation Environment for Training a Reinforcement Learning Agent Trading a Battery Storage
March 10, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, battery, electricity market, frequency containment reserve, frequency reserve, real-time, reinforcement learning, Simulation, timescale
Battery storages are an essential element of the emerging smart grid. Compared to other distributed intelligent energy resources, batteries have the advantage of being able to rapidly react to events such as renewable generation fluctuations or grid disturbances. There is a lack of research on ways to profitably exploit this ability. Any solution needs to consider rapid electrical phenomena as well as the much slower dynamics of relevant electricity markets. Reinforcement learning is a branch of artificial intelligence that has shown promise in optimizing complex problems involving uncertainty. This article applies reinforcement learning to the problem of trading batteries. The problem involves two timescales, both of which are important for profitability. Firstly, trading the battery capacity must occur on the timescale of the chosen electricity markets. Secondly, the real-time operation of the battery must ensure that no financial penalties are incurred from failing to meet the techn... [more]
116. LAPSE:2023.19573
Digital Twin in Electrical Machine Control and Predictive Maintenance: State-of-the-Art and Future Prospects
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, data handling, digital twin, electrical machines, Industry 4.0, life cycle, predictive maintenance
State-of-the-art Predictive Maintenance (PM) of Electrical Machines (EMs) focuses on employing Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods with well-established measurement and processing techniques while exploring new combinations, to further establish itself a profitable venture in industry. The latest trend in industrial manufacturing and monitoring is the Digital Twin (DT) which is just now being defined and explored, showing promising results in facilitating the realization of the Industry 4.0 concept. While PM efforts closely resemble suggested DT methodologies and would greatly benefit from improved data handling and availability, a lack of combination regarding the two concepts is detected in literature. In addition, the next-generation-Digital-Twin (nexDT) definition is yet ambiguous. Existing DT reviews discuss broader definitions and include citations often irrelevant to PM. This work aims to redefine the nexDT concept by reviewing latest descriptions in broader literature while es... [more]
117. LAPSE:2023.19545
A Digitalized Design Risk Analysis Tool with Machine-Learning Algorithm for EPC Contractor’s Technical Specifications Assessment on Bidding
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, decision support, engineering procurement and construction (EPC), machine learning algorism, phrase matcher, risk phrase extraction, technical risk extraction, technical specifications, terms frequency, text and data mining
Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) projects span the entire cycle of industrial plants, from bidding to engineering, construction, and start-up operation and maintenance. Most EPC contractors do not have systematic decision-making tools when bidding for the project; therefore, they rely on manual analysis and experience in evaluating the bidding contract documents, including technical specifications. Oftentimes, they miss or underestimate the presence of technical risk clauses or risk severity, potentially create with a low bid price and tight construction schedule, and eventually experience severe cost overrun or/and completion delays. Through this study, two digital modules, Technical Risk Extraction and Design Parameter Extraction, were developed to extract and analyze risks in the project’s technical specifications based on machine learning and AI algorithms. In the Technical Risk Extraction module, technical risk keywords in the bidding technical specifications are c... [more]
118. LAPSE:2023.19504
Criticality Analysis and Maintenance of Solar Tower Power Plants by Integrating the Artificial Intelligence Approach
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, bayesian network, criticality analysis, maintenance, solar tower power plants
Maintenance of solar tower power plants (STPP) is very important to ensure production continuity. However, random and non-optimal maintenance can increase the intervention cost. In this paper, a new procedure, based on the criticality analysis, was proposed to improve the maintenance of the STPP. This procedure is the combination of three methods, which are failure mode effects and criticality analysis (FMECA), Bayesian network and artificial intelligence. The FMECA is used to estimate the criticality index of the different elements of STPP. Moreover, corrections and improvements were introduced on the criticality index values based on the expert advice method. The modeling and the simulation of the FMECA estimations incorporating the expert advice method corrections were performed using the Bayesian network. The artificial neural network is used to predicate the criticality index of the STPP exploiting the database obtained from the Bayesian network simulations. The results showed a g... [more]
119. LAPSE:2023.19359
Petroleum Reservoir Control Optimization with the Use of the Auto-Adaptive Decision Trees
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, auto-adaptive decision tree, CCS-EOR, Machine Learning, production optimization, sequential model-based algorithm configuration
The global increase in energy demand and the decreasing number of newly discovered hydrocarbon reservoirs caused by the relatively low oil price means that it is crucial to exploit existing reservoirs as efficiently as possible. Optimization of the reservoir control may increase the technical and economic efficiency of the production. In this paper, a novel algorithm that automatically determines the intelligent control maximizing the NPV of a given production process was developed. The idea is to build an auto-adaptive parameterized decision tree that replaces the arbitrarily selected limit values for the selected attributes of the decision tree with parameters. To select the optimal values of the decision tree parameters, an AI-based optimization tool called SMAC (Sequential Model-based Algorithm Configuration) was used. In each iteration, the generated control sequence is introduced into the reservoir simulator to compute the NVP, which is then utilized by the SMAC tool to vary the... [more]
120. LAPSE:2023.19284
An Efficient Method to Compute Thermal Parameters of the Comfort Map Using a Decreased Number of Measurements
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, comfort map, comfort theory, interpolation procedure
This paper presents an empirical approach to design ideal workplaces using the PMV-PPD (predicted mean vote−predicted percentage dissatisfied) method set in ISO 7730 in terms of thermal comfort. The key concept behind our method is that the overall employee satisfaction might be improved if they can select the most suitable desk based on their personal comfort preferences. To support desk sharing, we designed a comfort map toolkit, which can visualize the distribution of comfort parameters within office spaces. The article describes the steps to create comfort maps with methods already widely used, as well as a new one developed by our research team, including the measurement procedures and the theoretical background required.
121. LAPSE:2023.19252
Triboelectric Nanogenerators for Energy Harvesting in Ocean: A Review on Application and Hybridization
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, energy harvesting, ocean wave, structural health monitoring, triboelectric nanogenerators
With recent advancements in technology, energy storage for gadgets and sensors has become a challenging task. Among several alternatives, the triboelectric nanogenerators (TENG) have been recognized as one of the most reliable methods to cure conventional battery innovation’s inadequacies. A TENG transfers mechanical energy from the surrounding environment into power. Natural energy resources can empower TENGs to create a clean and conveyed energy network, which can finally facilitate the development of different remote gadgets. In this review paper, TENGs targeting various environmental energy resources are systematically summarized. First, a brief introduction is given to the ocean waves’ principles, as well as the conventional energy harvesting devices. Next, different TENG systems are discussed in details. Furthermore, hybridization of TENGs with other energy innovations such as solar cells, electromagnetic generators, piezoelectric nanogenerators and magnetic intensity are investi... [more]
122. LAPSE:2023.19216
Energy-Efficient IoT e-Health Using Artificial Intelligence Model with Homomorphic Secret Sharing
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Information Management
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, Energy Efficiency, health system, homomorphic secrets, inflectional diseases
Internet of Things (IoT) is a developing technology for supporting heterogeneous physical objects into smart things and improving the individuals living using wireless communication systems. Recently, many smart healthcare systems are based on the Internet of Medical Things (IoMT) to collect and analyze the data for infectious diseases, i.e., body fever, flu, COVID-19, shortness of breath, etc. with the least operation cost. However, the most important research challenges in such applications are storing the medical data on a secured cloud and make the disease diagnosis system more energy efficient. Additionally, the rapid explosion of IoMT technology has involved many cyber-criminals and continuous attempts to compromise medical devices with information loss and generating bogus certificates. Thus, the increase in modern technologies for healthcare applications based on IoMT, securing health data, and offering trusted communication against intruders is gaining much research attention.... [more]
123. LAPSE:2023.19055
Model Predictive Control of Internal Combustion Engines: A Review and Future Directions
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, combustion control, emissions, internal combustion engines, Machine Learning, Optimization, predictive control
An internal combustion engine (ICE) is a highly nonlinear dynamic and complex engineering system whose operation is constrained by operational limits, including emissions, noise, peak in-cylinder pressure, combustion stability, and actuator constraints. To optimize today’s ICEs, seven to ten control actuators and 10−20 feedback sensors are often used, depending on the engine applications and target emission regulations. This requires extensive engine experimentation to calibrate the engine control module (ECM), which is both cumbersome and costly. Despite these efforts, optimal operation, particularly during engine transients and to meet real driving emission (RDE) targets for broad engine speed and load conditions, has still not been obtained. Methods of model predictive control (MPC) have shown promising results for real-time multi-objective optimal control of constrained multi-variable nonlinear systems, including ICEs. This paper reviews the application of MPC for ICEs and analyzes... [more]
124. LAPSE:2023.18911
Recent Development in Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Computational Intelligence Techniques in Deregulated Power Market
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference, Artificial Intelligence, backtracking search algorithm, competitive market, electricity price forecasting, system feature selection
The development of artificial intelligence (AI) based techniques for electricity price forecasting (EPF) provides essential information to electricity market participants and managers because of its greater handling capability of complex input and output relationships. Therefore, this research investigates and analyzes the performance of different optimization methods in the training phase of artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for the accuracy enhancement of EPF. In this work, a multi-objective optimization-based feature selection technique with the capability of eliminating non-linear and interacting features is implemented to create an efficient day-ahead price forecasting. In the beginning, the multi-objective binary backtracking search algorithm (MOBBSA)-based feature selection technique is used to examine various combinations of input variables to choose the suitable feature subsets, which minimizes, simultaneously, both the number of... [more]
125. LAPSE:2023.18901
A Meta-Modeling Power Consumption Forecasting Approach Combining Client Similarity and Causality
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, data analysis, Energy, ensemble neural networks, feature engineering, Machine Learning, meta-modeling, neural networks, power forecasting
Power forecasting models offer valuable insights on the electricity consumption patterns of clients, enabling the development of advanced strategies and applications aimed at energy saving, increased energy efficiency, and smart energy pricing. The data collection process for client consumption models is not always ideal and the resulting datasets often lead to compromises in the implementation of forecasting models, as well as suboptimal performance, due to several challenges. Therefore, combinations of elements that highlight relationships between clients need to be investigated in order to achieve more accurate consumption predictions. In this study, we exploited the combined effects of client similarity and causality, and developed a power consumption forecasting model that utilizes ensembles of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. Our novel approach enables the derivation of different representations of the predicted consumption based on feature sets influenced by similarity an... [more]