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Showing records 2329 to 2353 of 36336. [First] Page: 1 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Last
Stability Metric Based on Sensitivity Analysis Applied to Electrical Repowering System
João R. B. Paiva, Alana S. Magalhães, Pedro H. F. Moraes, Júnio S. Bulhões, Wesley P. Calixto.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: electric repowering, parameter suppression, sensitivity analysis, stability metric.
Stability metrics are used to quantify a system’s ability to maintain equilibrium under disturbances. We did not identify the proposition of a stability metric using sensitivity analysis within the literature. This work proposes a system stability metric and its application to an electrical repowering system. The methodology for applying the proposed metric comprises: (i) system parameters sensitivity analysis and spider diagram construction, (ii) determining the array containing the line segments inclination angles of each spider diagram curve, and (iii) stability calculation using the array mean and maximum inclination value of a line segment. After simulating the model built for the electrical repowering system and applying the methodology, we obtain results regarding the sensitivity indices and stability values of system inputs relative to their outputs, considering the original system and with reduced parameters. Using the stability study, it was possible to determine different st... [more]
Experimental Quantification of the Lateral Mixing of Binary Solids in Bubbling Fluidized Beds
Huanan Li, Jikai Huang, Zhigang Liu, Mingming Lv, Can Ji.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: binary mixtures, capacitance probe, fluidized bed, lateral solids mixing.
A novel experimental method for the lateral mixing of binary solids in bubbling fluidized beds was developed based on the capacitance probe technique. The evolutions of local mixing ratios in a fluidized bed which can be assumed as one mixing cell were analyzed in detail. The solids mixing within one mixing cell was resolved and the effect of convection and diffusion mechanism on lateral mixing was evaluated individually. The results show that at lower part of the fluidized bed, convection plays a more important role in the mixing process near the wall; meanwhile, diffusion is very important for the mixing around the center line. This is opposite with that at the higher part. A lateral micro dispersion coefficient was proposed to characterize the lateral mixing within the mixing cell and the value is generally between 0.005 and 0.025 m/s. A new mixing index was proposed to evaluate the lateral mixing quality of binary solids. It was found that at the lower part of the fluidized bed, th... [more]
Automatic Detection of Subsidence Troughs in SAR Interferograms Using Mathematical Morphology
Maciej Dwornik, Stanisława Porzycka-Strzelczyk, Jacek Strzelczyk, Hubert Malik, Radosław Murdzek, Anna Franczyk, Justyna Bała.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: automatic detection, mathematical morphology, radar interferometry, subsidence trough.
In this paper, an automatic algorithm for the detection of subsidence areas in SAR interferograms is proposed. It is based on the analysis of spatial distribution of the interferogram phase, and its coherence and entropy. The developed method was tested for differential interferograms generated on the basis of Sentinel-1 SAR images covering mining areas in South Poland. The obtained results were compared with those achieved using a method based on circular Gabor filters. Performed analysis revealed that the detection rate for the proposed method varied from 34% to 83%. It is an improved method based on Gabor filters that achieved a detection rate from 30% to 53%.
Non-Coaxially Rotating Motion in Casson Martial along with Temperature and Concentration Gradients via First-Order Chemical Reaction
Noman Jabbar, Muhammad Bilal Hafeez, Sameh Askar, Umar Nazir.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: chemical reaction, non-coaxial rotation, Nusselt number, Sherwood number, transportation.
The effect of non-coaxial rotation on the transport of mass subjected to first-order chemical reaction is studied analytically. The effects of thermal radiation, buoyancy, constructive and destructive chemical reactions along with Casson fluid in rotating frame are discussed. Time evolution of primary and secondary velocities, energy and solute particles are analyzed. The behavior of flow under the variation of intensity of magnetic field is also investigated. Evolutionary behavior of primary velocity is opposite to the evolutionary behavior of secondary velocity. The impact of buoyant force on primary velocity is opposite to the role of buoyant force on the secondary velocity. The evolutionary behavior of temperature is also examined and a remarkable enhancement in temperature is noticed. Thermal radiation causes the fluid to be cooled down as heat energy is escaped by thermal radiation. Evolutionary behavior of concentration is also analyzed and an increasing of concentration versus... [more]
Seismostratigraphic Interpretation of Upper Cretaceous Reservoir from the Carpathian Foreland, Southern Poland
Andrzej Urbaniec, Anna Łaba-Biel, Anna Kwietniak, Imoleayo Fashagba.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: seismic attributes, seismic sequence stratigraphy, Upper Cretaceous, Wheeler diagram.
The Upper Cretaceous complex in the central part of the Carpathian Foreland (southern Poland) is relatively poorly recognized and described. Its formations can be classified as unconventional reservoir due to poor reservoir properties as well as a low recovery factor. The main aim of the article is to expand knowledge with conclusions resulting from the analysis of the latest seismic data with the application of seismic sequence stratigraphy. Moreover, the seismic attributes analysis was utilized. The depositional architecture recognition based on both chronostratigraphic horizons and Wheeler diagram interpretations was of paramount importance. A further result was the possibility of using the chronostratigraphic image for tectonostratigraphic interpretation. Two distinguished tectonostratigraphic units corresponding to megasequences were recognized. A tectonic setting of the analyzed interval is associated with global processes noticed by other authors in other parts of the central Eu... [more]
Study on the Mechanical Extended-Reach Limit Prediction Model of Horizontal Drilling with Dual-Channel Drillpipes
Tianyi Tan, Hui Zhang.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: dual-channel drillpipe, horizontal well drilling, mechanical extended-reach limit, torque and drag.
Extended-reach horizontal wells are critical for the development of unconventional reservoirs. Dual-channel drill pipe drilling has a great advantage in improving the horizontal section length, while the research on its mechanical extended-reach limit prediction model is insufficient. In this paper, the torque and drag model is built considering the additional axial force of the sliding piston on the dual-channel drillpipe. Based on the torque and drag model, the mechanical extended-reach limit model for dual-channel drilling is established. A case study including a comparison to the conventional drilling method and sensitivity analysis is conducted. The result shows that under the same conditions, the mechanical extended-reach limit of the dual-channel drilling method is 10,592.2 m, while it is 9030.6 m of the conventional drilling method. The dual-channel drilling method achieves a further mechanical extended-reach limit than the conventional drilling method. To improve the mechanica... [more]
Effects of Air Temperature and Humidity on the Kinetics of Sludge Drying at Low Temperatures
Zhenyu Wang, Lin Xu, Dong Liu, Qing Zhang, Anjie Hu, Ruheng Wang, Yongcan Chen.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: drying characteristics, relative humidity, sludge, temperature.
In this study, a low-air temperature sludge drying system was constructed and the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the characteristics of the system were investigated. The results showed that the drying rate of sludge increased with an increase in air temperature and a decrease in the air’s relative humidity. The influence of temperature on the average drying rate exhibited an approximate quadratic distribution, while the influence of relative humidity on the average drying rate exhibited an almost linear distribution. The relationship equations of the average drying rate, temperature, and humidity were summarized and compared with the experimental results, and the maximum relative error was 7.6375%. By comparing the experimental results with the commonly used thin-layer drying models, it was found that the sludge drying characteristics were more consistent with the Midilli model. Based on the relevant parameters of the Midilli model, the relationship between the segment... [more]
Field Test of Superheater Pipes Vibration Caused by Sound Energy in the 235 MWe Circulating Fluidized Bed Boiler
Paweł Mirek.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ash deposits, circulating fluidized bed, sonic soot blowers, superheaters, vibration.
This paper presents the results of measurements of vibrations of the pipes of the steam superheater installed in the convection pass of the 235 MWe Circulating Fluidized Bed boiler (CFB) induced using sonic soot blowers of the Nirafon NI-100 type. The measurements were made using two ICP Triaxial 356A16 accelerometers allowing the analysis of accelerations in the maximum range of ±490 m/s2. Simultaneously with vibration measurements, the sound pressure level was recorded using the G.R.A.S. 40BH high-pressure microphone. The measurements and spectral analysis of the recorded signals showed that the acoustic wave of 148 dB is safe for the steam superheater pipes causing vibrations of maximum amplitude not exceeding 1 mm. The field tests confirmed the supposition that the dominant mechanism for cleaning the surfaces of the superheater’s heating pipes are not pipe vibrations, but the breakage of cohesion forces between dust particles.
Geochemical Investigation of CO2 Injection in Oil and Gas Reservoirs of Middle East to Estimate the Formation Damage and Related Oil Recovery
Ilyas Khurshid, Imran Afgan.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: CO2 sequestration, formation damage, geochemical reactions, oil recovery.
The injection performance of carbon dioxide (CO2) for oil recovery depends upon its injection capability and the actual injection rate. The CO2−rock−water interaction could cause severe formation damage by plugging the reservoir pores and reducing the permeability of the reservoir. In this study, a simulator was developed to model the reactivity of injected CO2 at various reservoir depths, under different temperature and pressure conditions. Through the estimation of location and magnitude of the chemical reactions, the simulator is able to predict the effects of change in the reservoir porosity, permeability (due to the formation/dissolution) and transport/deposition of dissoluted particles. The paper also presents the effect of asphaltene on the shift of relative permeability curve and the related oil recovery. Finally, the effect of CO2 injection rate is analyzed to demonstrate the effect of CO2 miscibility on oil recovery from a reservoir. The developed model is validated against t... [more]
Fundamental Responsiveness in European Electricity Prices
Michail I. Seitaridis, Nikolaos S. Thomaidis, Pandelis N. Biskas.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: common latent effects, day-ahead electricity markets, fundamental valuation, long memory, panel data econometrics.
We estimate fundamental pricing relationships in selected European day-ahead electricity markets. Using a fractionally integrated panel data model with unobserved common effects, we quantify the responsiveness of hourly electricity prices to two fundamental leading indicators of day-ahead markets: the predicted load and renewable generation. The application of fractional cointegration analysis techniques gives further insight into the pricing mechanism of power delivery contracts, enabling us to measure the persistence of fundamental shocks.
A New Anelasticity Model for Wave Propagation in Partially Saturated Rocks
Chunfang Wu, Jing Ba, Xiaoqin Zhong, José M. Carcione, Lin Zhang, Chuantong Ruan.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: anelasticity, P-wave velocity dispersion and attenuation, partial saturation, patchy saturation, squirt flow, ultrasonic measurements.
Elastic wave propagation in partially saturated reservoir rocks induces fluid flow in multi-scale pore spaces, leading to wave anelasticity (velocity dispersion and attenuation). The propagation characteristics cannot be described by a single-scale flow-induced dissipation mechanism. To overcome this problem, we combine the White patchy-saturation theory and the squirt flow model to obtain a new anelasticity theory for wave propagation. We consider a tight sandstone Qingyang area, Ordos Basin, and perform ultrasonic measurements at partial saturation and different confining pressures, where the rock properties are obtained at full-gas saturation. The comparison between the experimental data and the theoretical results yields a fairly good agreement, indicating the efficacy of the new theory.
Comparison of Baseline Load Forecasting Methodologies for Active and Reactive Power Demand
Edgar Segovia, Vladimir Vukovic, Tommaso Bragatto.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: active and reactive power demand, baseline load forecasting, electricity consumption, X of Y.
Forecasting the electricity consumption is an essential activity to keep the grid stable and avoid problems in the devices connected to the grid. Equaling consumption to electricity production is crucial in the electricity market. The grids worldwide use different methodologies to predict the demand, in order to keep the grid stable, but is there any difference between making a short time prediction of active power and reactive power into the grid? The current paper analyzes the most usual forecasting algorithms used in the electrical grids: ‘X of Y’, weighted average, comparable day, and regression. The subjects of the study were 36 different buildings in Terni, Italy. The data supplied for Terni buildings was split into active and reactive power demand to the grid. The presented approach gives the possibility to apply the forecasting algorithm in order to predict the active and reactive power and then compare the discrepancy (error) associated with forecasting methodologies. In this... [more]
Formation of Characteristic Polynomials on the Basis of Fractional Powers j of Dynamic Systems and Stability Problems of Such Systems
Orest Lozynskyy, Damian Mazur, Yaroslav Marushchak, Bogdan Kwiatkowski, Andriy Lozynskyy, Tadeusz Kwater, Bohdan Kopchak, Przemysław Hawro, Lidiia Kasha, Robert Pękala, Robert Ziemba, Bogusław Twaróg.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: dynamic system, fractional order derivatives, system stability.
The article presents the creation of characteristic polynomials on the basis of fractional powers j of dynamic systems and problems related to the determination of the stability intervals of such systems.
Aerial Thermographic Image-Based Assessment of Thermal Bridges Using Representative Classifications and Calculations
Zoe Mayer, Julia Heuer, Rebekka Volk, Frank Schultmann.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: buildings, drones, energy assessment, energy retrofits, thermal bridges, thermography, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV).
Since the middle of the 20th century many any buildings were built without any energy standards and still have a comparably poor energy quality. To obtain an overview of the current thermal quality of buildings in a whole city district, it may be promising to work with thermographic images obtained by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Aerial thermography represents a fast and cost-efficient approach compared to traditional terrestrial thermography. In this paper, we describe an approach to finding thermal bridges on aerial thermographic images and characterizing them in terms of their risk of mold formation, energy losses, retrofit costs, and retrofit benefits. To identify thermal bridge types that can be detected reliably on aerial thermographic images, we use a dataset collected with a UAV in an urban district of the German city of Karlsruhe. We classify and characterize 14 relevant thermal bridge types for the German building cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s. Concerning the criterion of... [more]
On the Quality of Street Lighting in Pedestrian Crossings
Malgorzata Zalesinska, Krzysztof Wandachowicz.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: luminance contras, pedestrian crossings lighting, pedestrian safety, pedestrian visibility, street lighting.
The pedestrian is the least protected road user. A large number of accidents involving pedestrians occur at pedestrian crossings. Bad lighting or a complete lack of it is one of the causes of accidents in these places. Currently, there are no uniform requirements in Europe for the lighting of pedestrian crossings. Each country is trying to create its system of requirements and assessment of lighting of pedestrian crossings. Measurement procedures and required lighting parameter values often vary significantly across countries. This paper discusses the results of measurements carried out at selected pedestrian crossings using two different measurement grids. The lighting quality at the tested crossings has been assessed based on the lighting requirements in force in two EU countries. In addition, we present the results for the illuminance contrast of a measurement board, representing the silhouette of a pedestrian on a crossing, with the background. Based on the determined contrast, we... [more]
Localization of Disconnection Faults in PV Installations Using the Multiple Frequencies Injection Method
Jae-Sub Ko, Dae-Kyong Kim.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: disconnection failure, failure detecting, multiple frequency injection, PV system.
This paper proposes a method to detect disconnection faults and their exact location in PV systems. The proposed method injects multiple frequencies into a PV system with a transmitter and detects the injected signal using a receiver. The signal detected by the receiver exhibits different frequency characteristics on a disconnection failure. Based on this characteristic, a disconnection failure can be detected. In addition, by detecting the frequency radiated through the disconnection point, the exact disconnection point can be detected.
Egalitarian Kinetic Models: Concepts and Results
Denis Constales, Gregory Yablonsky, Yiming Xi, Guy Marin.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: acyclic and cyclic mechanisms, egalitarian kinetics, hierarchical kinetics.
In this paper, two main ideas of chemical kinetics are distinguished, i.e., a hierarchy and commensuration. A new class of chemical kinetic models is proposed and defined, i.e., egalitarian kinetic models (EKM). Contrary to hierarchical kinetic models (HKM), for the models of the EKM class, all kinetic coefficients are equal. Analysis of EKM models for some complex chemical reactions is performed for sequences of irreversible reactions. Analytic expressions for acyclic and cyclic mechanisms of egalitarian kinetics are obtained. Perspectives on the application of egalitarian models for reversible reactions are discussed. All analytical results are illustrated by examples.
Microcrack Porosity Estimation Based on Rock Physics Templates: A Case Study in Sichuan Basin, China
Chuantong Ruan, Jing Ba, José M. Carcione, Tiansheng Chen, Runfa He.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: Biot–Rayleigh theory, microcrack porosity, rock-physics template, tight sandstone gas reservoirs, total porosity.
Low porosity-permeability structures and microcracks, where gas is produced, are the main characteristics of tight sandstone gas reservoirs in the Sichuan Basin, China. In this work, an analysis of amplitude variation with offset (AVO) is performed. Based on the experimental and log data, sensitivity analysis is performed to sort out the rock physics attributes sensitive to microcrack and total porosities. The Biot−Rayleigh poroelasticity theory describes the complexity of the rock and yields the seismic properties, such as Poisson’s ratio and P-wave impedance, which are used to build rock-physics templates calibrated with ultrasonic data at varying effective pressures. The templates are then applied to seismic data of the Xujiahe formation to estimate the total and microcrack porosities, indicating that the results are consistent with actual gas production reports.
Silica Sinter and the Evolution of Hot Springs in the Alvord/Pueblo Valleys, Southeast Oregon, USA
Leslie Allen Mowbray, Michael L. Cummings.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: Alvord/Pueblo valleys, ground penetrating radar, northwestern Basin-and-Range Province, silica sinter, thermoluminescence dating.
Hot springs in the Alvord/Pueblo valleys in southeastern Oregon are analogous to Basin-and-Range hydrothermal systems where heat source and permeable pathways are met through crustal thinning. Silica sinter deposition at Mickey Springs, Alvord Valley, predates the late Pleistocene high stand of pluvial Lake Alvord. At Borax Lake, Pueblo Valley, sinter deposition occurred during the Holocene. This study examines the evolution of springs at Mickey Springs, where three morphologies of sinter are present: (1) basalt clasts surrounded by sinter in interbedded conglomerate and sandstone, (2) pool-edge and aprons of sinter surrounding depressions (12−32 m diameter), and (3) quaquaversal sinter mounds with pool-edge sinter. The oldest sinter occurs in silica-cemented conglomerate and sandstone, where deposition occurred prior to 30 kya. Deposition around broad depressions and mounds occurred after 30 kya but before water levels began to rise in pluvial Lake Alvord. Thermoluminescence dates sug... [more]
Experimental Study on the Stabilization Mechanism of Diffusion Flames in a Curved Impinging Spray Combustion Field in a Narrow Region
Hideo Kawahara, Konosuke Furukawa, Koichiro Ogata, Eiji Mitani, Koji Mitani.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: curved impinging jet combustion, diffusion flame, narrow region, stable combustion, temperature fluctuation.
HVAF (High Velocity Air Flame) flame spraying can generate supersonic high-temperature gas jets, enabling thermal spraying at unprecedented speeds. However, there is a problem with the energy cost of this device. This study focused on combustors that used cheap liquid fuel (kerosene) as the fuel for HVAF. In this research, we have developed a compact combustor with a narrow channel as a heat source for the HVAF heat atomizer. Using this combustor, the stability of the flame formed in the combustor, the morphology of the flame, and the temperature behavior in the combustion chamber were investigated in detail. As a result, the magnitude of the swirling airflow had a great influence on the structure of the flame formed in the combustor, and the stable combustion range of the combustor could be determined. As the swirling air flow rate changes, the equivalent ratio of the entire combustor changes significantly, and the flame structure also transition from the premixed flame to the diffusi... [more]
Fuel Properties of Torrefied Biomass from Sapindus Pericarp Extraction Residue under a Wide Range of Pyrolysis Conditions
Wen-Tien Tsai, Tasi-Jung Jiang, Yu-Quan Lin, Xiang Zhang, Kung-Sheng Yeh, Chi-Hung Tsai.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: fuel property, lignite-like biomass, Sapindus pericarp, solid fuel, torrefaction.
In this work, a novel biomass, the extraction residue of Sapindus pericarp (SP), was torrefied by using an electronic oven under a wide range of temperature (i.e., 200−320 °C) and residence times (i.e., 0−60 min). From the results of the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) of SP, a significant weight loss was observed in the temperature range of 200−400 °C, which can be divided into the decompositions of hemicellulose (major)/lignin (minor) (200−320 °C) and cellulose (major)/lignin (minor) (320−400 °C). Based on the fuel properties of the feedstock SP and SP-torrefied products, the optimal torrefaction conditions can be found at around 280 °C for holding 30 min, showing that the calorific value, enhancement factor and energy yield of the torrefied biomass were enhanced to be 28.60 MJ/kg, 1.36 and 82.04 wt%, respectively. Consistently, the values of the calorific value, carbon content and molar carbon/hydrogen (C/H) ratio indicated an increasing trend at higher torrefaction temperatures an... [more]
Unlocking the UK Continental Shelf Electrification Potential for Offshore Oil and Gas Installations: A Power Grid Architecture Perspective
Mohamed Elgenedy, Khaled Ahmed, Graeme Burt, Graeme Rogerson, Greg Jones.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: CapEx, CO2 emissions, HVDC, net-zero, offshore, oil and gas, UKCS, wind energy.
Most of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) oil and gas (OG) installations have traditionally adopted in situ power generation, which is not only inefficient but also generating about 70% of the offshore CO2 emissions. The offshore wind and energy storage technologies for deep water are developing at a fast pace, enabling great opportunities for the OG installations located in the North Sea. In this paper, a pathway for the UKCS offshore OG installations electrification is introduced. The aim is to provide different power architectures that facilitate the OG installations’ electrification, while benefiting from the existing and planned UK offshore wind power. Four hypothetical case studies (based on real data) were created, along the UKCS, where the corresponding power architectures were proposed. The selection of each architecture power component (e.g., transformers, converters and cables), as well as the transmission and distribution technology (e.g., AC or DC), is also provided and just... [more]
Determination of the Leakage Reactance of End Windings of a High-Power Synchronous Generator Stator Winding Using the Finite Element Method
Sebastian Berhausen, Stefan Paszek.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: finite element method, leakage reactance of end windings, model of synchronous generator, three- and two- dimensional distribution of electromagnetic field in synchronous generator end region.
The paper presents a description of the method and the results of calculating the leakage reactance of high-power synchronous generator end windings using the finite element method. This reactance is one of the components of the stator leakage reactance of synchronous generators. The calculations were carried out under the assumption of a three-dimensional field distribution in a synchronous generator. The thus calculated value of the leakage reactance of the end windings was compared with the calculation results obtained using traditional, analytical formulas known from the literature. The analysis of the influence of the reactance value of the end windings on the transient waveforms at a three-phase short-circuit of the stator windings was performed based on a two-dimensional field-circuit model.
Labeling of Installed Heating Appliances in Residential Buildings: An Energy Labeling Methodology for Improving Consumers’ Awareness
Diego Menegon, Daniela Lobosco, Leopoldo Micò, Joana Fernandes.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: consumers’ awareness, energy label, ERP, heating appliances, water heater appliances.
In the EU 28, the installed heating appliance stock is quite old, with an actual replacement rate of 4%. This is directly reflected in the average efficiency of the installed heating systems, where around 60% of the stock is rated with an energy class of C or D (the lowest classes of the energy label scale). The European project HARP aims at raising consumers’ awareness of the planned replacement of their old and inefficient heating appliances with more efficient and renewable solutions. In this direction, an energy labeling methodology for old appliances has been developed to rate the installed stock before the introduction of the EU energy label. The methodology has been developed for space heating appliances and water heaters, targeting two types of users: end consumers and professional users. The validation considered about 4600 space heating appliances and 800 water heaters built between 1972 and 2019. Three heating appliances and two water heaters were tested in the laboratory, c... [more]
Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Spot Price of Colombian Electricity
Andrés Oviedo-Gómez, Sandra Milena Londoño-Hernández, Diego Fernando Manotas-Duque.
April 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: COVID-19, electricity demand, electricity market, electricity prices, lockdown, pandemic, quantile regression approach.
COVID-19 disease shocked global economic activity and affected the electricity markets due to lockdown and work-from-home policies. Therefore, this study proposes an empirical analysis to identify the electricity spot price response during the preventive and mandatory insulation in Colombia, where the economic contraction caused the largest decrease in the electricity demand, especially in the industrial sector. The methodology applied was quantile regression to quantify the non-linear effect on the spot price returns, and two sample periods were selected to contrast the results: 2018 and 2019. The main findings showed that regulated demand variation caused the highest variability on the spot price dynamic during the strict quarantine. However, the price could not fully capture the effects of the demand change due to the short duration of the shock and, also, the price variability in 2019 was higher than 2020 by an El Niño shock.
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