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Records with Subject: Modelling and Simulations
2521. LAPSE:2023.19052
SPICE-Aided Modeling of Daily and Seasonal Changes in Properties of the Actual Photovoltaic Installation
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Modelling, photovoltaic installation, SPICE, thermal phenomena, weather parameters
This article proposes a model of an actual photovoltaic installation situated in the Gdynia Maritime University, Poland. This model is formulated in the form of a SPICE network. In the presented model, the influence of selected weather parameters and thermal phenomena on the properties of the components of this installation are taken into account. The structure of the analyzed installation and the form of the formulated model are both presented. By means of this model, values of the power produced by the installation considered in different seasons and different times of the day are computed. The obtained computation results are compared to the measurement results. Good agreement between the results of measurements and computations is obtained. The obtained results of the investigations confirm the considerable influence of weather conditions, as well as daily and seasonal changes in solar irradiation and the ambient temperature, on the electrical energy produced. In the summer months,... [more]
2522. LAPSE:2023.19038
Numerical Modeling of Combustion and Detonation in Aqueous Foams
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: combustion, detonation, flame acceleration, microfoam, numerical analysis
Combustible aqueous foams and foamed emulsions represent prospective energy carriers. This paper is devoted to the overview of model assumptions required for numerical simulations of combustion and detonation processes in aqueous foams. The basic mathematical model is proposed and used for the analysis of the combustion development in the wet aqueous foam containing bubbles filled with reactive gas. The numerical results agree with the recent experimental data on combustion and detonation in aqueous foams containing premixed hydrogen−oxygen. The obtained results allowed for distinguishing the mechanisms of flame acceleration, transition to detonation, detonation propagation, and decay.
2523. LAPSE:2023.19031
Assessment of Riverbed Clogging in Reservoirs by Analysis of Periodic Oscillation of Reservoir Level and Groundwater Level
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: alluvial aquifer recharge, analytical modelling, riverbed clogging, time series
In the area of the the Krško alluvial field, the Brežice hydroelectric power plant (BHPP), with its surface water reservoir, was completed in 2017. The new BHPP reservoir dam is located approximately 7 km air distance downstream of the old Krško nuclear power plant (NEK) reservoir dam. The NEK dam was built in the 1970s. The primary purpose of the NEK reservoir is to provide fresh water for cooling the NEK nuclear reactor. To assess the impact of the newly built surface water reservoir on groundwater, we performed a series of data analyses prior to its construction. One part of the analysis relating to data from the monitoring facility of the NEK showed an interesting correspondence between the water level oscillation in the NEK reservoir and the groundwater oscillation in the nearby observation well. Based on measurements taken in 2000, we sought to estimate the clogging of the Sava riverbed sediments in the area of the old NEK surface water reservoir. To determine the permeability of... [more]
2524. LAPSE:2023.19019
Cascaded Voltage and Current Control for a Dual Active Bridge Converter with Current Filters
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: controller tuning, current filter, Dual Active Bridge (DAB), dynamic model, Single Phase Shift (SPS) modulation
The paper describes the cascaded voltage and current control for a bidirectional DC/DC converter in Dual Active Bridge (DAB) topology. The typical DAB converter circuit was extended by additional current filters, which allow it to operate in application fields with high requirements on current ripples. The core concept of the presented solution is usage of the modified Single Phase Shift (SPS) modulation, which allows to compensate for the DC-bias current occurring in dynamic states and provides a settling time of half switching cycle during transients. Its features were utilized to build a simplified dynamic model of the converter. The linear Proportional-Integral (PI) controllers are used in both voltage and current control loops. Based on the developed dynamic models, the tuning rules for both controllers were derived. In both cases, a number of the tuned parameters were reduced from two to one (which can present a great practical value for application engineers). The proposed solut... [more]
2525. LAPSE:2023.19002
Influence of the Variability of Compressed Air Temperature on Selected Parameters of the Deformation-Stress State of the Rock Mass Around a CAES Salt Cavern
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES), salt cavern, thermo-mechanical effects
The article presents the results of a numerical simulation of the deformation-stress state in the rock mass around a salt cavern which is a part of a CAES installation (Compressed Air Energy Storage). The model is based on the parameters of the Huntorf power plant installation. The influence of temperature and salt-creep speed on the stability of the storage cavern was determined on the basis of the three different stress criteria and the effort of the rock mass in three points of the cavern at different time intervals. The analysis includes two creep speeds, which represent two different types of salt. The solutions showed that the influence of temperature on the deformation-stress state around the CAES cavern is of importance when considering the stress state at a distance of less than 60 m from the cavern axis (at cavern diameter 30−35 m). With an increase in cavern diameter, it is possible that the impact range will be proportionately larger, but each case requires individual model... [more]
2526. LAPSE:2023.18992
Simulation and Experimental Analysis of Multi-Chamber Arc-Quenching Arresters (MCAA) for 10 kV Transmission Lines
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: arc, arc-quenching, high-speed airflow, lightning flashover, lightning protection, lightning tripping accidents
Since conventional lightning protection measures do not effectively extinguish subsequent arcs of electrical frequency after the passage of lightning, it is impossible to prevent lightning-related accidents on the distribution lines. To solve this problem, a 10 kV multi-chamber arc-quenching arrester (MCAA) applicable to transmission lines of different voltage levels is developed. In order to research the arc-quenching characteristics of the MCAA, COMSOL software was used to simulate and analyze the high-speed airflow coupled arc process. Under the action of a strong airflow at high speed, the arc is segmented, the temperature of the arc falls sharply, and eventually, the arc is extinguished. In the simulation process, the conductivity of the arc and the clouds of change of air speed were achieved. It may be concluded that arc segmentation time and airflow generation time are at a subtle level. Meanwhile, an experimental circuit was established to conduct the arc-quenching experiment.... [more]
2527. LAPSE:2023.18981
Optimizing TEG Dehydration Process under Metamodel Uncertainty
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: BONUS algorithm, BTEX mitigation, metamodeling uncertainty, support vector regression (SVR), TEG dehydration process, Value of Stochastic Solution (VSS)
Natural gas processing requires the removal of acidic gases and dehydration using absorption, mainly conducted in tri-ethylene glycol (TEG). The dehydration process is accompanied by the emission of volatile organic compounds, including BTEX. In our previous work, multi-objective optimization was undertaken to determine the optimal operating conditions in terms of the process parameters that can mitigate BTEX emission using data-driven metamodeling and metaheuristic optimization. Data obtained from a process simulation conducted using the ProMax® process simulator were used to develop a metamodel with machine learning techniques to reduce the computational time of the iterations in a robust process simulation. The metamodels were created using limited samples and some underlying phenomena must therefore be excluded. This introduces the so-called metamodeling uncertainty. Thus, the performance of the resulting optimized process variables may be compromised by the lack of adequately acco... [more]
2528. LAPSE:2023.18980
A CFD Design Approach for Industrial Size Tubular Reactors for SNG Production from Biogas (CO2 Methanation)
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: CO2 methanation, Computational Fluid Dynamics, multi-tubular reactor
A tubular reactor based on the disk and doughnut concept was designed as an engineering solution for biogas upgrading via CO2 methanation. CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) benchmarks agreed well with experimental and empirical (correlation) data, giving a maximum error of 8.5% and 20% for the chemical reaction and heat transfer models, respectively. Likewise, hot spot position was accurately predicted, with a 5% error. The methodology was used to investigate the effect of two commercially available coolants (thermal oil and molten salts) on overall reactor performance through a parametric study involving four coolant flow rates. Although molten salts did show higher heat transfer coefficients at lower coolant rates, 82% superior, it also increases, by five times, the pumping power. A critical coolant flow rate (3.5 m3/h) was found, which allows both a stable thermal operation and optimum pumping energy consumption. The adopted coolant flow range remains critical to guarantee thermal... [more]
2529. LAPSE:2023.18961
Quasi-Boundary Method for Design Consideration of Resonant DC-DC Converters
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: design consideration, modeling and simulation, resonant circuits, resonant DC-DC converters
The paper presents a new unified method for designing the two basic types of serial resonant DC-DC converters (series and with a parallel-loaded capacitor). The method is based on the use of a simplified generalized approach for the analysis of this type of power electronic devices. It is characterized by the fact that regardless of the specific operating mode, with a control frequency below or above the resonant of the series resonant circuit to determine the relationship between input and output voltage or current, it is assumed that the converter operates in resonance. In this sense, it is called a quasi-boundary method for analysis and design. The use of the quasi-boundary method significantly accelerates and facilitates the design of the considered power circuits, which is very useful for the purposes of engineering practice, as well as in the training of power electronics. The applicability of this approach is proven by the methods of mathematical modeling and computer simulation... [more]
2530. LAPSE:2023.18955
Modeling Dynamic Multifractal Efficiency of US Electricity Market
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: efficiency, electricity, MLM, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, multifractality, rolling window
The dramatic deregulatory reforms in US electricity markets increased competition, resulting in more complex prices compared to other commodities. This paper aims to investigate and compare the overall and time-varying multifractality and efficiency of four major US electricity regions: Mass Hub, Mid C, Palo Verde, and PJM West. Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) is employed to better quantify the intensity of self-similarity. Large daily data from 2001 to 2021 are taken in order to make a more conclusive analysis. The four electricity market returns showed strong multifractal features with PJM West having the highest multifractality (corresponding to lowest efficiency) and Mass Hub having the lowest multifractality (i.e., highest efficiency). Moreover, all series exhibited mean reverting (anti-persistent) behavior in the overall time period. The findings of MFDFA rolling window suggest Palo Verde as the most volatile index, while a significant upward trend in the effi... [more]
2531. LAPSE:2023.18953
Studies on Frequency Response Characteristics of High-Speed Railway Train End Relationship Test System with Flexible Bases
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: dynamic coupling, flexible reaction base, natural frequency, stewart parallel robot
A train end relationship test system was installed with a Stewart parallel robot on the reaction bases perpendicular to the ground, to test the fatigue and durability of train end relationship components, such as the transfixion way of a high-speed railway train. The flexibility of the reaction bases affected the test accuracy of the train end relationship components within a test frequency band range. In this paper, a coupling characteristic model was established between the flexible bases and the parallel robot. Then, the analytical relationship was analyzed between the natural frequency of the bases and the natural frequency of the parallel robot. Moreover, a design criterion was proposed for the natural frequency of the reaction bases. It was considered that when the natural frequency of the bases was not less than five times the natural frequency of the parallel robot, the influence of the flexibility of the bases on the test accuracy can be ignored. The validity of the design cri... [more]
2532. LAPSE:2023.18947
An Improved Fuzzy PID Control Method Considering Hydrogen Fuel Cell Voltage-Output Characteristics for a Hydrogen Vehicle Power System
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: electrochemical and dynamic model, hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, improved fuzzy PID control, voltage-output characteristics
The hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) vehicle is an important clean energy vehicle which has prospects for development. The behavior of the hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) vehicle power system, and in particular, the proton-exchange membrane fuel cell, has been extensively studied as of recent. The development of the dynamic system modeling technology is of paramount importance for HFC vehicle studies; however, it is hampered by the separation of the electrochemical properties and dynamic properties. In addition, the established model matching the follow-up control method lacks applicability. In attempts to counter these obstructions, we proposed an improved fuzzy (Proportional Integral Derivative) PID control method considering HFC voltage-output characteristics. By developing both the electrochemical and dynamic model for HFC vehicle, we can realize the coordinated control of HFC and power cell. The simulation results are in good agreement with the experimental results in the two models. The propose... [more]
2533. LAPSE:2023.18935
A Mapping Approach for Efficient CFD Simulation of Low-Speed Large-Bore Marine Engine with Pre-Chamber and Dual-Fuel Operation
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, dual fuel, marine engine, multi-regime combustion, pre-chamber
A natural-gas-diesel dual-fuel marine engine with a pre-chamber is a promising solution for ocean transportation to meet the International Maritime Organization (IMO) emission regulations. This engine system employs a pre-chamber with direct injection of diesel to ignite premixed natural gas due to its higher ignition energy, which can enable lower lean limit and higher thermal efficiency. The dual-fuel pre-chamber marine engine presents complex multi-regime combustion characteristics in- and outside the pre-chamber, thus posing challenges in its numerical simulation in a cost-effective manner. Therefore, this paper presents a three-dimensional modeling study for the multi-regime combustion in a large-bore two-stroke marine dual-fuel engine, proposing a novel mapping approach, which couples the well-stirred reactor (WSR) model with the G-equation model to achieve high computational accuracy and efficiency simultaneously. In-depth analysis is performed using representative exothermic re... [more]
2534. LAPSE:2023.18930
A Study of Blockage Effects at the Wind Turbine and Wind Farm Scales
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: blockage effect, blockage interaction, Computational Fluid Dynamics, induction, wind farms
The paper provides novel insights into the physics behind the wind turbine and wind farm blockages as well as their effects on the energy yield based on the momentum and energy balance. The current work presents blockage effects at two scales: the local scale and the wind farm scale. We clarify the combined effect of local blockages when more than one turbine is present. The work demonstrates why two turbines, which are positioned one behind the other, induce a mutual decrease in energy yield. When the turbines are placed in a row, there is an increase of energy from the end to the middle of the row because of the restriction of the expansion flow. As in the case of two turbines placed behind each other, back rows induce a power decrease for the rows in front of them and the effect increases from the edge to the center. The work also elucidates for the first time how the power output of an isolated row has a maximum in the center, whereas, in a wind farm, wind turbines on the edge of t... [more]
2535. LAPSE:2023.18928
Sensitivity of Reservoir and Operational Parameters on the Energy Extraction Performance of Combined CO2-EGR−CPG Systems
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: CO2-plume geothermal (CPG), combined CO2-EGR–CPG system, enhanced gas recovery (EGR), geothermal power generation, reservoir simulation, sensitivity analysis
There is a potential for synergy effects in utilizing CO2 for both enhanced gas recovery (EGR) and geothermal energy extraction (CO2-plume geothermal, CPG) from natural gas reservoirs. In this study, we carried out reservoir simulations using TOUGH2 to evaluate the sensitivity of natural gas recovery, pressure buildup, and geothermal power generation performance of the combined CO2-EGR−CPG system to key reservoir and operational parameters. The reservoir parameters included horizontal permeability, permeability anisotropy, reservoir temperature, and pore-size-distribution index; while the operational parameters included wellbore diameter and ambient surface temperature. Using an example of a natural gas reservoir model, we also investigated the effects of different strategies of transitioning from the CO2-EGR stage to the CPG stage on the energy-recovery performance metrics and on the two-phase fluid-flow regime in the production well. The simulation results showed that overlapping the... [more]
2536. LAPSE:2023.18926
Economic Analysis and Generic Algorithm for Optimizing the Investments Decision-Making Process in Oil Field Development
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: costs, data analysis, decision making, economic model, forecast parameters, investments, Modelling, oil price, Optimization, Simulation
Due to the substantial amounts of money involved and the complex interactions of a number of different factors, managers of oil and gas companies are faced with significant challenges when making investment decisions that will increase business efficiency and achieve competitive advantages, especially through cost control. Due to the various uncertainties of the current period, optimal investment strategies are difficult to determine. Thus, through an economic analysis that includes data analysis, quantitative risk analysis scenarios, modelling and simulations, a work framework, in the form of a generic algorithm, is proposed with the aim of generating a complex procedure for optimizing investment decisions in oil field development. A complex set of elements is considered in the analysis: costs (operational expenditures (OPEX) and capital expenditures (CAPEX), daily drilling rig costs), prices (oil, gas, separation and water injection preparation), production profiles, different types... [more]
2537. LAPSE:2023.18906
A Pattern New in Every Moment: The Temporal Clustering of Markets for Crude Oil, Refined Fuels, and Other Commodities
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Brent, clustering, COVID-19 pandemic, energy commodities, financial crises, Gasoline, Machine Learning, t-SNE, WTI
The identification of critical periods and business cycles contributes significantly to the analysis of financial markets and the macroeconomy. Financialization and cointegration place a premium on the accurate recognition of time-varying volatility in commodity markets, especially those for crude oil and refined fuels. This article seeks to identify critical periods in the trading of energy-related commodities as a step toward understanding the temporal dynamics of those markets. This article proposes a novel application of unsupervised machine learning. A suite of clustering methods, applied to conditional volatility forecasts by trading days and individual assets or asset classes, can identify critical periods in energy-related commodity markets. Unsupervised machine learning achieves this task without rules-based or subjective definitions of crises. Five clustering methods—affinity propagation, mean-shift, spectral, k-means, and hierarchical agglomerative clustering—can identify an... [more]
2538. LAPSE:2023.18904
A Geothermal Plant from a Time-Scale Perspective
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: heat production, Sønderborg geothermal plant, time scale, water chemistry
In recent years, geothermal energy use from low-temperature sandstone reservoirs has sharply increased. Nonetheless, the injection of heat-depleted geothermal fluids has not been an easy task because of well/formation damage and operational/economic issues. Sønderborg geothermal plant is a case example of heat-mining from a low-temperature reservoir. It is in the northeast of Sønderborg towards Augustenborg Fjord. The present work takes into consideration the regional and local geology of the Sønderborg area, construction of the wells, field experience and water chemistry. The main issues of the geothermal plant appear to be related to the construction of the wells and reinjection of the heat-depleted brine. Our water chemistry analysis and PHREEQC simulations indicate that geothermal brine was saturated with respect to carbonate and barite minerals. The excess of Ca2+ and SO42− ions could have led to the formation and precipitation of carbonate and sulfate scales. Moreover, the increm... [more]
2539. LAPSE:2023.18896
Mapping of Fault and Hydrothermal System beneath the Seulawah Volcano Inferred from a Magnetotellurics Structure
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: geothermal, Indonesia, magnetotelluric, phase tensor, Seulawah Agam
Magnetotellurics (MT) is an important geophysical method for exploring geothermal systems, with the Earth resistivity obtained from the MT method proving to be useful for the hydrothermal imaging changes of the system. In this research, we applied the MT method to map the geothermal system of the Seulawah Agam volcano in northern Sumatra, a site intended for the construction of a geothermal power plant with an estimated energy of 230 Mwe. Herein, 3D MT measurements were carried out, covering the entire area of the volcano and the various intersecting local faults from the Seulimeum segment in the NW−SE direction. Based on Occam 2D inversion, a conductive anomaly (<10 ohm·m) near the surface was identified in response to specific manifestation areas, including the Heutsz crater on the northern side and the Cempaga crater on the southern side. A further conductive anomaly was also found at a depth of 1 km, which was presumably due to a clay cap layer covering the fluid in the reservoi... [more]
2540. LAPSE:2023.18880
Application Study in the Field of Solutions for the Monitoring Distribution Transformers of the Overhead Power Grid
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: distribution transformer sensing, edge-computing, hot-spot temperature, low voltage measurement, overhead transformer monitoring
This paper will present the development and application of overhead transformers of the distribution grid, as well as the different technologies used for the gathering of electrical quantities, in the field of a monitoring solution. The solution reports the values of the quantities and alarms of operation remotely and almost in real-time. The development of this solution seeks to provide an electrical grid with greater reliability, proposing the reduction of KPIs (Key Performance Indicator), such as SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index) and SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index), through more transparent monitoring of the behavior of the electrical distribution grid and its equipment. Through the research and development (R&D) project Urban Futurability, ENEL (Ente nazionale per l’energia elettrica) Distribution São Paulo seeks to apply the solution by implementing the concept of smart grids, an idea that has been growing each year by virtue of technological d... [more]
2541. LAPSE:2023.18873
Hydrodynamics of Liquid-Liquid Flows in Micro Channels and Its Influence on Transport Properties: A Review
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, flow patterns, high speed camera, microchannels, particle tracking velocimetry, pressure drop
Hydrodynamics plays a major role in transport of heat and mass transfer in microchannels. This includes flow patterns and flow regimes in which the micro-channels are operated. The flow patterns have a major impact the transport properties. Another important aspect is the pressure drop in micro-channels. In the present review, the experimental and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) studies covering all the above aspects have been covered. The effect of geometrical parameters like shape of channel, channel size, material of construction of channels; operating parameters like flow velocity, flow ratio and fluid properties have been presented and analyzed. Experimental and analytical work of different pressure drop models has also been presented. All the literature related to influence of flow patterns on transport properties like volumetric mass transfer coefficients (VMTC) and heat transfer coefficients (HTC) have been presented and analyzed. It is found that most works in Liquid-Liquid... [more]
2542. LAPSE:2023.18866
Fuel Reactor CFD Multiscale Modelling in Syngas-Based Chemical Looping Combustion with Ilmenite
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: 3D particle, carbon capture and storage, chemical looping combustion, Computational Fluid Dynamics, ilmenite oxygen carrier, Multiscale Modelling, reaction chamber, Syngas
As global power generation is currently relying on fossil fuel-based power plants, more anthropogenic CO2 is being released into the atmosphere. During the transition period to alternative energy sources, carbon capture and storage seems to be a promising solution. Chemical-looping combustion (CLC) is an energy conversion technology designed for combustion of fossil fuel with advantageous carbon capture capabilities. In this work, a 1D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) multiscale model was developed to study the reduction step in a syngas-based CLC system and was validated using literature data (R=0.99). In order to investigate mass transfer effects, flow rate and particle dimension studies were carried out. Sharper mass transfer rates were seen at lower flow rates and smaller granule sizes due to suppression of diffusion limitations. In addition, a 3D CFD particle model was developed to investigate in depth the reduction within an ilmenite particle, with focus on heat transfer effect... [more]
2543. LAPSE:2023.18856
Smart Building Energy Inefficiencies Detection through Time Series Analysis and Unsupervised Machine Learning
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: clustering, Energy Efficiency, IoT, LEED building, smart building, time series, unsupervised learning
The climate of Houston, classified as a humid subtropical climate with tropical influences, makes the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems the largest electricity consumers in buildings. HVAC systems in commercial buildings are usually operated by a centralized control system and/or an energy management system based on a fixed schedule and scheduled control of a zone setpoint, which is not appropriate for many buildings with changing occupancy rates. Lately, as part of energy efficiency analysis, attention has focused on collecting and analyzing smart meters and building-related data, as well as applying supervised learning techniques, to propose new strategies to operate HVAC systems and reduce energy consumption. On the other hand, unsupervised learning techniques have been used to study the consumption information and profile characterization of different buildings after cluster analysis is performed. This paper adopts a different approach by revealing the power... [more]
2544. LAPSE:2023.18851
Design and Modelling of 3D Bionic Cathode Flow Field for Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: bionic design, flow field, mass transfer, numerical modelling, proton exchange membrane fuel cell
Proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) have been utilized as a promising power source for new energy vehicles. Their performances are greatly affected by the structural design of the flow field in the bipolar plate. In this paper, we present a novel three-dimensional (3D) bionic cathode flow field, inspired by the small intestinal villi. The structural design and working principle of the 3D bionic flow field units are first described. A 3D numerical model is developed to study the mass transfer and distribution of the reactants and products, as well as the polarization performances of the PEMFC with the 3D bionic cathode flow field. The simulation results indicate that the proposed 3D bionic flow field can significantly improve the reaction gas supply from the flow field to porous electrodes, and thus would be beneficial for the removal of liquid water in the cathode. The mass transfer of gas in the PEMFC can be enhanced due to the increasing contact areas between the gas diffusi... [more]
2545. LAPSE:2023.18850
Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence and Forecasting
March 9, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: crude oil prices, exchange rates, forecasting, Machine Learning, nonlinear causality, support vector regression
The relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates have always been of interest to academics and policy analysts. There are theoretical transmission channels that justify such links; however, the empirical evidence is not clear. Most of the studies on causal relationships in this area have been restricted to a linear framework, which can omit important properties of the investigated dependencies that could be exploited for forecasting purposes. Based on the nonlinear Granger causality tests, we found strong bidirectional causal relations between crude oil prices and two currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and weaker between crude oil prices and JPY/USD. We showed that the significance of these relations has changed in recent years. We also made an attempt to find an effective strategy to forecast crude oil prices using the investigated exchange rates as regressors and vice versa. To this aim, we applied Support Vector Regression (SVR)—the machine learning method of time series... [more]
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