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Showing records 425 to 449 of 1408. [First] Page: 1 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Last
Non-Strategic Capacity Withholding from Distributed Energy Storage within Microgrids Providing Energy and Reserve Services
Fernando J. Lanas, Francisco J. Martínez-Conde, Diego Alvarado, Rodrigo Moreno, Patricio Mendoza-Araya, Guillermo Jiménez-Estévez.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ancillary services, battery energy storage systems, capacity degradation, capacity withholding, microgrids, power system economics, power system reliability.
Microgrids have the potential to provide security and flexibility to power systems through the integration of a wide range of resources, including distributed energy storage, usually in the form of batteries. An aggregation of microgrids can enable the participation of these resources in the main system’s energy and ancillary services market. The traditional minimum-cost operation, however, can undermine microgrid’s ability to hold reserve capacity for operation in islanded mode and can rapidly degrade distributed batteries. This paper studies the impacts of various operational strategies from distributed energy storage plants on their revenues and on market prices, considering an array of microgrids that act in a synchronized fashion. The operational model minimizes the entire electric power system cost, considering transmission-connected and distributed energy resources, and capturing capacity degradation of batteries as part of the cost function. Additionally, microgrid-based, distr... [more]
Dynamic Response of an Inverted Pendulum System in Water under Parametric Excitations for Energy Harvesting: A Conceptual Approach
Saqib Hasnain, Karam Dad Kallu, Muhammad Haq Nawaz, Naseem Abbas, Catalin Iulin Pruncu.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy harvesting, hydrodynamics forces, parametric excitations, stability border, underwater inverted pendulum.
In this paper, we have investigated the dynamic response, vibration control technique, and upright stability of an inverted pendulum system in an underwater environment in view point of a conceptual future wave energy harvesting system. The pendulum system is subjected to a parametrically excited input (used as a water wave) at its pivot point in the vertical direction for stabilization purposes. For the first time, a mathematical model for investigating the underwater dynamic response of an inverted pendulum system has been developed, considering the effect of hydrodynamic forces (like the drag force and the buoyancy force) acting on the system. The mathematical model of the system has been derived by applying the standard Lagrange equation. To obtain the approximate solution of the system, the averaging technique has been utilized. An open loop parametric excitation technique has been applied to stabilize the pendulum system at its upright unstable equilibrium position. Both (like th... [more]
Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Self-Adaptive Decomposition and Heterogeneous Ensemble Learning
Matheus Henrique Dal Molin Ribeiro, Stéfano Frizzo Stefenon, José Donizetti de Lima, Ademir Nied, Viviana Cocco Mariani, Leandro dos Santos Coelho.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, electricity price forecasting, ensemble learning models, exogenous variables, short-term forecasting.
Electricity price forecasting plays a vital role in the financial markets. This paper proposes a self-adaptive, decomposed, heterogeneous, and ensemble learning model for short-term electricity price forecasting one, two, and three-months-ahead in the Brazilian market. Exogenous variables, such as supply, lagged prices and demand are considered as inputs signals of the forecasting model. Firstly, the coyote optimization algorithm is adopted to tune the hyperparameters of complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition in the pre-processing phase. Next, three machine learning models, including extreme learning machine, gradient boosting machine, and support vector regression models, as well as Gaussian process, are designed with the intent of handling the components obtained through the signal decomposition approach with focus on time series forecasting. The individual forecasting models are directly integrated in order to obtain the final forecasting prices one to three-months-ahea... [more]
Islanding Detection Using a Micro-Synchrophasor for Distribution Systems with Distributed Generation
Karthikeyan Subramanian, Ashok Kumar Loganathan.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distributed generation, islanding detection, micro-synchrophasor, power distribution systems, smart grid.
Distributed Generation (DG) has changed the power generation system to small-scale instead of large-scale generation. The demanding issue with the interconnection of DG is the detection of unintended islanding in a network. Several methods proposed in the literature show drawbacks such as high non-detection zones (NDZ) and higher tripping time. In this paper, the IEEE 13 bus distribution network with DGs like wind and solar power plants is integrated at two buses. Islanding is detected by utilizing data from a micro-synchrophasor located at the distribution grid and the DG. The micro-synchrophasor-based unintended islanding detection algorithm is based on parameters such as voltage, rate of change of voltage, frequency, rate of change of frequency, voltage phase angle difference and the rate of change of the voltage phase angle difference between the utility and the islanded grid. The proposed islanding detection algorithm discriminates between islanding and non-islanding conditions an... [more]
Smart Grid State Estimation with PMUs Time Synchronization Errors
Marco Todescato, Ruggero Carli, Luca Schenato, Grazia Barchi.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Kalman filter, phasor measurement units, smart grids, state estimation, time synchronization.
State Estimation (SE) is one of the essential tasks to monitor and control the smart power grid. This paper presents a method to estimate the state variables combining the measurement of power demand at each bus with the data collected from a limited number of Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Although PMU data are usually assumed to be perfectly synchronized with the Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), this work explicitly considers the presence of time-synchronization errors due, for instance, to the actual performance of GPS receivers and the limited stability of the internal oscillator. The proposed algorithm is a recursive Kalman filter which not only estimates the state variables of the power system, but also the frequency deviations causing clock offsets which eventually affect the timestamps of the measures returned by different PMUs. The proposed solution was tested and compared with alternative approaches using both synthetic data applied to the IEEE 123 bus distribution feeder... [more]
A Novel Fault Location Method of a 35-kV High-Reliability Distribution Network Using Wavelet Filter-S Transform
Shuyu Guo, Shihong Miao, Haipeng Zhao, Haoran Yin, Zixin Wang.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: 35-kV high reliability distribution network, distributed multi-point fault location, noise and analog-digital conversion, wavelet filter-S transform.
Timely and accurate fault location for a 35-kVhigh-reliability distribution network is one of the key technologies to improve the safety and efficiency of distribution network operations. A novel fault location method of 35-kV high-reliability distribution network is proposed in this paper. First, the distributed multipoint fault location model is established based on the power structure of a 35-kV high-reliability distribution network. The distribution of voltage and current traveling waves along the lines is comprehensively considered in this model. Secondly, we analyze the influence of noise interference, analog-digital conversion frequency, and conversion bits on the location accuracy. The simulation method of noise and analog-digital conversion is proposed based on simulated samples. Then, a wavelet filter is used to reduce the influence of noise on the calibration of the traveling wave arrival time, and matrix modulus of S transform is used to identify the arrival time for the wa... [more]
An Approach to Detecting Cyber Attacks against Smart Power Grids Based on the Analysis of Network Traffic Self-Similarity
Igor Kotenko, Igor Saenko, Oleg Lauta, Aleksander Kribel.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: anomaly detection, cyber attacks, cyber security, fractal analysis, Hurst metric, scaling metric, smart grid, time series.
The paper discusses an approach for detecting cyber attacks against smart power supply networks, based on identifying anomalies in network traffic by assessing its self-similarity property. Methods for identifying long-term dependence in fractal Brownian motion and real network traffic of smart grid systems are considered. It is shown that the traffic of a telecommunication network is a self-similar structure, and its behavior is close to fractal Brownian motion. Fractal analysis and mathematical statistics are used as tools in the development of this approach. The issues of a software implementation of the proposed approach and the formation of a dataset containing network packets of smart grid systems are considered. The experimental results obtained using the generated dataset have demonstrated the existence of self-similarity in the network traffic of smart grid systems and confirmed the fair efficiency of the proposed approach. The proposed approach can be used to quickly detect t... [more]
Traveling-Wave Based Fault Location for Phase-to-Ground Fault in Non-Effectively Earthed Distribution Networks
Yani Wang, Tao Zheng, Chang Yang, Li Yu.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distribution network, fault location, non-effectively earthed system, traveling wave.
This paper presents a multi-terminal traveling-wave-based fault location method for phase-to-ground fault in non-effectively earthed distribution systems. To improve the accuracy of fault location, a two-terminal approach is used to identify the faulty branch and a single-ended approach is followed to determine the fault distance based on the arrival time of reflected traveling waves. Wavelet decomposition is employed to extract the time-frequency component of the aerial-mode traveling waves. Magnitude and polarity of the wavelet coefficients are used to estimate the fault distance starting from the propagation fault point to the branch terminal. In addition, the network is divided into several sub-networks in order to reduce the number of measurement units. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated by simulations considering the phase-to-ground fault that happens at different positions in the distribution network.
Jump Linear Quadratic Control for Microgrids with Commercial Loads
Maryam Khanbaghi, Aleksandar Zecevic.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy management, jump linear quadratic control, Markov chain, microgrids, stochastic hybrid systems, Stochastic Optimization.
Due to the aging power-grid infrastructure and increased usage of renewable energies, microgrids (μGrids) have emerged as a promising paradigm. It is reasonable to expect that they will become one of the fundamental building blocks of a smart grid, since effective energy transfer and coordination of μGrids could help maintain the stability and reliability of the regional large-scale power-grid. From the control perspective, one of the key objectives of μGrids is load management using local generation and storage for optimized performance. Accomplishing this task can be challenging, however, particularly in situations where local generation is unpredictable both in quality and in availability. This paper proposes to address that problem by developing a new optimal energy management scheme, which meets the requirements of supply and demand. The method that will be described in the following models μGrids as a stochastic hybrid dynamic system. Jump linear theory is used to maximize storag... [more]
Optimal Placement of IoT-Based Fault Indicator to Shorten Outage Time in Integrated Cyber-Physical Medium-Voltage Distribution Network
Jing Li, Jinrui Tang, Xinze Wang, Binyu Xiong, Shenjun Zhan, Zilong Zhao, Hui Hou, Wanying Qi, Zhenhai Li.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cyber-physical network, fault indicator, LoRa, NB-IoT, optimal placement.
Traditional fault indicators based on 3G and 4G cannot send out fault-generated information if the distribution lines are located in the system across remote mountainous or forest areas. Hence, power distribution systems in rural areas only rely on patrol to find faults currently, which wastes time and lacks efficiency. With the development of the Internet of things (IoT) technology, some studies have suggested combining the long-range (LoRa) and the narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) technologies to increase the data transmission distance and reduce the self-built communication system operating cost. In this paper, we propose an optimal configuration scheme for novel intelligent IoT-based fault indicators. The proposed fault indicator combines LoRa and NB-IoT communication technologies with a long communication distance to achieve minimum power consumption and high-efficiency maintenance. Under this given cyber network and physical power distribution network, the whole fault locat... [more]
Distributed Power Quality Conditioning System for Three-Phase Four-Wire Low Voltage Networks
Valery Dovgun, Sergei Temerbaev, Maxim Chernyshov, Viktor Novikov, Natalia Boyarskaya, Elena Gracheva.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: harmonics, hybrid power filter, neutral current attenuation, power quality.
This paper presents distributed power quality conditioning system to compensate current and voltage distortions in three-phase four-wire networks caused by unbalanced non-linear single-phase loads. The proposed conditioning system consists of several hybrid filter units installed in various nodes for compensation of excessive neutral currents and voltage distortions in a selected area of the distribution network. The system is open and it can be easily modified by installation of new filter units. A novel hybrid filter design procedure based on filter frequency characteristics optimization in the parameters of passive and active parts is presented. A digital system of control signal computation for active filters based on the use of modern methods of spectral analysis is considered. The proposed digital control system enables selective compensation of fundamental and harmonic components. The mathematical model of the proposed power quality conditioning system is developed in the MatLab... [more]
Optimal Selection and Location of Fixed-Step Capacitor Banks in Distribution Networks Using a Discrete Version of the Vortex Search Algorithm
Walter Gil-González, Oscar Danilo Montoya, Arul Rajagopalan, Luis Fernando Grisales-Noreña, Jesus C. Hernández.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: discrete vortex search algorithm, energy losses minimization, medium-voltage distribution levels, metaheuristic optimization, optimal location of capacitor banks, radial distribution networks.
This paper deals with the problem of the optimal selection of capacitor banks in electrical AC distribution systems for minimizing the costs of energy losses during a year of operation through a discrete version of the vortex search algorithm (DVSA). This algorithm works with a hypersphere with a variable radius defined by an exponential function where a Gaussian distribution is used to generate a set of candidate solutions uniformly distributed around the center of this hypersphere. This center corresponds to the best solution obtained at the iteration t, which is initialized at the center of the solution space at the iterative search beginning. The main advantage of combining the exponential function with the Gaussian distribution is the correct balance between the exploration and exploitation of the solution space, which allows reaching the global optimal solution of the optimization problem with a low standard deviation, i.e., guaranteeing repeatability at each simulation. Two clas... [more]
A Smart Grid AMI Intrusion Detection Strategy Based on Extreme Learning Machine
Ke Zhang, Zhi Hu, Yufei Zhan, Xiaofen Wang, Keyi Guo.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: advanced metering infrastructure (AMI), extreme learning machine (ELM), intrusion detection system (IDS), smart grid.
The smart grid is vulnerable to network attacks, thus requiring a high detection rate and fast detection speed for intrusion detection systems. With a fast training speed and a strong model generalization ability, the extreme learning machine (ELM) perfectly meets the needs of intrusion detection of the smart grid. In this paper, the ELM is applied to the field of smart grid intrusion detection. Aiming at the problem that the randomness of input weights and hidden layer bias in the ELM cannot guarantee the optimal performance of the ELM intrusion detection model, a genetic algorithm (GA)-ELM algorithm based on a genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed. GA is used to optimize the input weight and hidden layer bias of the ELM. Firstly, the input weight and hidden layer bias of the ELM are mapped to the chromosome vector of a GA, and the test error of the ELM model is set as the fitness function of the GA. Then, the parameters of the ELM intrusion detection model are optimized by genetic opera... [more]
Design of Battery Storage System for Malaysia Low Voltage Distribution Network with the Presence of Residential Solar Photovoltaic System
Meysam Shamshiri, Chin Kim Gan, Junainah Sardi, Mau Teng Au, Wei Hown Tee.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: battery energy storage system, distribution network, grid-connected PV system.
The recent proliferation of residential solar photovoltaic systems has prompted several technical challenges to the operation of low voltage (LV) distribution networks. More specifically, the mismatch of the solar generation and demand profiles, particularly during the midday when the demand is low and solar generation is high, can lead to network overvoltages and increased network losses. In addition, the solar photovoltaic system is not able to reduce the system’s maximum demand, given the residential LV network would normally have an evening peak when the sun goes down. In this regard, this paper examines two different control strategies in designing the battery energy storage system. One aims to eliminate reverse flow caused by the surplus solar energy and the other aims for peak demand reduction.
A Multi-Stage Coordinated Volt-Var Optimization for Integrated and Unbalanced Radial Distribution Networks
Xiangjing Su, Jining Liu, Shuxin Tian, Ping Ling, Yang Fu, Shurong Wei, Chao SiMa.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: coordinated optimization, integrated distribution networks, unbalance, volt-var control.
The growing penetrations of rooftop photovoltaics (PVs) into low-voltage (LV) distribution networks are challenging voltage regulation. Developing an effective volt-var (VV) control has been the focus of many researchers with various approaches proposed so far. However, assuming a single voltage level and balanced network model, widely adopted in existing literatures, tends to cause inaccurate and even infeasible control solutions. Besides, existing distribution VV control studies are usually based on the day-ahead predictions of PV generations and loads, introducing inevitable and non-negligible errors. To address the challenges above, this paper proposes a VV co-optimization across unbalanced medium-voltage (MV) and LV networks, by traditional and emerging techniques, to ensure the network operation with the required power quality. Specifically, the operation of MV delta-connected switched capacitors and LV distributed PV inverters is coordinated, under a three-stage strategy that su... [more]
Load Management Strategies to Increase Electric Vehicle Penetration—Case Study on a Local Distribution Network in Stockholm
Monika Topel, Josefine Grundius.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distribution system, elecric vehicles, flexible demand, load management, smart charging.
As part of decarbonization efforts, countries are adapting their energy policies accordingly. Sweden has established ambitious energy goals, which include CO2 emissions reduction in the transport sector and high integration of renewables in the electricity sector. Coupling the two can be an enabling force towards fossil freedom. An increased share of electric vehicles is therefore a promising solution in this regard. However, there are challenges concerning the impact that a surge of electric vehicles would have on the electric infrastructure. Moreover, in Stockholm there is a shortage of power capacity due to limitations in the national transmission infrastructure, which further aggravates the situation. This paper develops a scenario-based simulation study to evaluate the impact of electric vehicle loads on the distribution grid of a Stockholm neighborhood. In this process, limiting factors and bottlenecks in the network were identified as being related to the peak power and transfor... [more]
Experimental Study of Macro Fiber Composite-Magnet Energy Harvester for Self-Powered Active Magnetic Bearing Rotor Vibration Sensor
Arkadiusz Mystkowski, Vytautas Ostasevicius.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: active magnetic bearing, energy harvesting, magnetic coupling, MFC-magnet, rotor vibration measurement, self-powered sensor.
The paper presents the design, fabrication, and characterization of an energy harvester for an active magnetic bearing (AMB) rotor vibration using a macro fiber composite (MFC) with magnetic coupling. The MFC cantilevers configuration, together with neodymium magnets, is used for the contact-free rotor radial vibration self-powered sensor. The permanent magnets attached to the rotor and to the four MFC element beams ensure the mechanical energy transfer and the MFC cantilever vibration excitation. In the proposed prototype, the MFC transducer output voltage depends on the air-gap between two magnets. This paper investigates the optimum conditions to harvest as much as possible electric energy at different clearances and rotational speeds. Furthermore, to assess the rotor vibration sensitivity, the experimental results of the MFC-magnet self-powered sensor are compared with measurements obtained using a fiber optic sensor. The maximal obtained harvesting power equals 673.47 µW for the r... [more]
Quantifying Topological Flexibility of Active Distribution Networks Based on Community Detection
Huizi Gu, Xiaodong Chu.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: active distribution networks, affinity propagation, community structure, sectionalizing switch, spectral clustering, tie switch, topological flexibility.
Active distribution networks (ADNs) provide a flexible platform to integrate various distributed generation sources, among which the intermittent renewable sources impose high operating uncertainty. Topological flexibility of ADNs should be exploited to counter the stochastic operating conditions by modifying the topologies of ADNs. Quantifying the topological flexibility is a vital step to utilize it, which is lacking in previous studies. A quantification method is proposed to measure the topological flexibility of ADNs in this paper. First, the community structures of ADNs are detected to achieve spatial partitions of the networks. Second, an improved spectral clustering algorithm is employed to significantly reduce the dimensionality of the partition space, in which the ADNs are further partitioned using the affinity propagation algorithm. Finally, a topological flexibility metric is defined based on the guiding role of sectionalizing and tie switches within and between communities.... [more]
Review on the PV Hosting Capacity in Distribution Networks
Samar Fatima, Verner Püvi, Matti Lehtonen.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distribution network, power quality, PV hosting capacity.
The increasing penetration of Photovoltaic (PV) generation results in challenges regarding network operation, management and planning. Correspondingly, Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) are in the need of totally new understanding. The establishment of comprehensive standards for maximum PV integration into the network, without adversely impacting the normal operating conditions, is also needed. This review article provides an extensive review of the Hosting Capacity (HC) definitions based on different references and estimated HC with actual figures in different geographical areas and network conditions. Moreover, a comprehensive review of limiting factors and improvement methods for HC is presented along with voltage rise limits of different countries under PV integration. Peak load is the major reference used for HC definition and the prime limiting constraint for PV HC is the voltage violations. However, the varying definitions in different references lead to the conclusion that... [more]
Non-Directional Earth Fault Passage Indication in Isolated Neutral Distribution Networks
Amir Farughian, Lauri Kumpulainen, Kimmo Kauhaniemi.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: fault location, fault passage indication, symmetrical sequence currents.
In this paper, two new methods for locating single-phase to ground faults in isolated neutral distribution networks are proposed. The methods are based on the analysis of symmetrical sequence currents. They are solely based on currents, not requiring voltage measurement. The first method employs only the zero sequence current and the second one utilizes the negative sequence current in combination with the zero sequence current. It is revealed why using only zero sequence current with a simple threshold is insufficient and may lead to false results. Using the proposed methods, earth faults with high resistances can be located in isolated neutral distribution networks with overhead lines or cables.
Probabilistic Spatial Load Forecasting Based on Hierarchical Trending Method
Vasileios Evangelopoulos, Panagiotis Karafotis, Pavlos Georgilakis.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distribution networks, hierarchical trending method, prediction interval, probabilistic forecasting, spatial load forecasting.
The efficient spatial load forecasting (SLF) is of high interest for the planning of power distribution networks, mainly in areas with high rates of urbanization. The ever-present spatial error of SLF arises the need for probabilistic assessment of the long-term point forecasts. This paper introduces a probabilistic SLF framework with prediction intervals, which is based on a hierarchical trending method. More specifically, the proposed hierarchical trending method predicts the magnitude of future electric loads, while the planners’ knowledge is used to improve the allocation of future electric loads, as well as to define the year of introduction of new loads. Subsequently, the spatial error is calculated by means of root-mean-squared error along the service territory, based on which the construction of the prediction intervals of the probabilistic forecasting part takes place. The proposed probabilistic SLF is introduced to serve as a decision-making tool for regional planners and dis... [more]
Management of Radioactive Waste Containing Graphite: Overview of Methods
Leon Fuks, Irena Herdzik-Koniecko, Katarzyna Kiegiel, Grazyna Zakrzewska-Koltuniewicz.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: graphite, graphite processing, irradiated graphite, radioactive waste, spent TRISO fuel, waste disposal, waste management.
Since the beginning of the nuclear industry, graphite has been widely used as a moderator and reflector of neutrons in nuclear power reactors. Some reactors are relatively old and have already been shut down. As a result, a large amount of irradiated graphite has been generated. Although several thousand papers in the International Nuclear Information Service (INIS) database have discussed the management of radioactive waste containing graphite, knowledge of this problem is not common. The aim of the paper is to present the current status of the methods used in different countries to manage graphite-containing radioactive waste. Attention has been paid to the methods of handling spent TRISO fuel after its discharge from high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR) reactors.
A New Approach to Optimal Location and Sizing of DSTATCOM in Radial Distribution Networks Using Bio-Inspired Cuckoo Search Algorithm
Devabalaji Kaliaperumal Rukmani, Yuvaraj Thangaraj, Umashankar Subramaniam, Sitharthan Ramachandran, Rajvikram Madurai Elavarasan, Narottam Das, Luis Baringo, Mohamed Imran Abdul Rasheed.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cuckoo search algorithm, DSTATCOM, power loss minimization, radial distribution system, system power losses.
This article proposes a new approach based on a bio-inspired Cuckoo Search Algorithm (CSA) that can significantly envisage with several issues for optimal allocation of distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) in Radial Distribution System (RDS). In the proposed method, optimal locations of the DSTATCOM are calculated by using the Loss Sensitivity Factor (LSF). The optimal size of the DSTATCOM is simulated by using the newly developed CSA. In the proposed method, load flow calculations are performed by using a fast and efficient backward/forward sweep algorithm. Here, the mathematically formed objective function of the proposed method is to reduce the total system power losses. Standard 33-bus and 69-bus systems have been used to show the effectiveness of the proposed CSA-based optimization method in the RDS with different load models. The simulated results confirm that the optimal allocation of DSTATCOM plays a significant role in power loss minimization and enhanced voltage profile... [more]
Forecasting Electricity Prices Using Deep Neural Networks: A Robust Hyper-Parameter Selection Scheme
Grzegorz Marcjasz.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial neural network, deep learning, electricity price forecasting, hyper-parameter optimization, Machine Learning.
Deep neural networks are rapidly gaining popularity. However, their application requires setting multiple hyper-parameters, and the performance relies strongly on this choice. We address this issue and propose a robust ex-ante hyper-parameter selection procedure for the day-ahead electricity price forecasting that, when used jointly with a tested forecast averaging scheme, yields high performance throughout three-year long out-of-sample test periods in two distinct markets. Being based on a grid search with models evaluated on long samples, the methodology mitigates the noise induced by local optimization. Forecast averaging across calibration window lengths and hyper-parameter sets allows the proposed methodology to outperform a parameter-rich least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-estimated model and a deep neural network (DNN) with non-optimized hyper-parameters in terms of the mean absolute forecast error.
From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study
Richard Perez, Marc Perez, James Schlemmer, John Dise, Thomas E. Hoff, Agata Swierc, Patrick Keelin, Marco Pierro, Cristina Cornaro.
April 3, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Energy Storage, firm power generation, grid integration, implicit storage, irradiance forecasts, ultra-high RE penetration.
We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s... [more]
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