LAPSE:2023.26201
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.26201
From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study
Richard Perez, Marc Perez, James Schlemmer, John Dise, Thomas E. Hoff, Agata Swierc, Patrick Keelin, Marco Pierro, Cristina Cornaro
April 3, 2023
We introduce firm solar forecasts as a strategy to operate optimally overbuilt solar power plants in conjunction with optimally sized storage systems so as to make up for any power prediction errors, and hence entirely remove load balancing uncertainty emanating from grid-connected solar fleets. A central part of this strategy is the plant overbuilding that we term implicit storage. We show that strategy, while economically justifiable on its own account, is an effective entry step to achieving least-cost ultra-high solar penetration where firm power generation will be a prerequisite. We demonstrate that in the absence of an implicit storage strategy, ultra-high solar penetration would be vastly more expensive. Using the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as a case study, we determine current and future costs of firm forecasts for a comprehensive set of scenarios in each ISO electrical region, comparing centralized vs. decentralized production and assessing load flexibility’s impact. We simulate the growth of the strategy from firm forecast to firm power generation. We conclude that ultra-high solar penetration enabled by the present strategy, whereby solar would firmly supply the entire NYISO load, could be achieved locally at electricity production costs comparable to current NYISO wholesale market prices.
Keywords
Energy Storage, firm power generation, grid integration, implicit storage, irradiance forecasts, ultra-high RE penetration
Suggested Citation
Perez R, Perez M, Schlemmer J, Dise J, Hoff TE, Swierc A, Keelin P, Pierro M, Cornaro C. From Firm Solar Power Forecasts to Firm Solar Power Generation an Effective Path to Ultra-High Renewable Penetration a New York Case Study. (2023). LAPSE:2023.26201
Author Affiliations
Perez R: ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA
Perez M: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Schlemmer J: ASRC, University at Albany, 151 Fuller Rd., Albany, NY 12203, USA
Dise J: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Hoff TE: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Swierc A: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Keelin P: Clean Power Research LLC, NE 38th Pl, Kirkland, WA 10604, USA
Pierro M: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy
Cornaro C: Department of Enterprise Engineering, University of Rome, Tor Vergata, via del Politecnico 1, 00133 Rome, Italy [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
13
Issue
17
Article Number
E4489
Year
2020
Publication Date
2020-08-31
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en13174489, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.26201
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doi:10.3390/en13174489
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