In this paper, a maintenance cost study of transformers based on the Markov Model (MM) utilizing the Health Index (HI) is presented. In total, 120 distribution transformers of oil type (33/11 kV and 30 MVA) are examined. The HI is computed based on condition assessment data. Based on the HI, the transformers are arranged according to its corresponding states, and the transition probabilities are determined based on frequency of a transition approach utilizing the transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. The future states of transformers are determined based on the MM chain algorithm. Finally, the maintenance costs are estimated based on future-state distribution probabilities according to the proposed maintenance policy model. The study shows that the deterioration states of the transformer population for the year 2015 can be predicted by MM based on the transformer transition states for the year 2013/2014 and 2012/2013. Analysis on the relationship between t... [more]

Demographic shift is a worldwide phenomenon, which is mainly common among industrialized nations. However, in the age of fast technology transfer and globalization policy makers cannot undervalue population aging in developing countries, like Pakistan. The relationship between population aging, combined with joint family system, and energy demand has gained importance in Pakistan during the recent times. On the basis of a detailed analysis of micro data spanning over period of 16 years, this study explores the role of generational behavior towards energy consumption, while considering the effects of cohort and age, along with other determinants of energy demand. The decomposition of energy consumption exhibits significant differences in cohort and age effects. The study concludes that, in addition to aging effects, policy makers cannot ignore the recent generation’s trends of spending increasingly more on energy than previous generations.

Implementing energy-efficient solutions in a built environment is important for reaching international energy reduction targets. For advanced energy efficiency-related solutions, computer-based decision support systems are proposed and rapidly used in a variety of spheres relevant to a built environment. Present research proposes a novel artificial neural network-based decision support system for development of an energy-efficient built environment. The system was developed by integrating methods of the multiple criteria evaluation and multivariant design, determination of project utility and market value, and visual data mining by artificial neural networks. It enables a user to compose up to 100,000,000 combinations of the energy-efficient solutions, analyze strengths and weaknesses of a built environment projects, provide advice for stakeholders, and calculate market value and utility degree of the projects. For visual data mining, self-organizing maps (type neural networks) are use... [more]

The period of industrialization and modernization has increased energy demands around the world. As with other countries, the Taiwanese government is trying to increase the proportion of renewable energy, especially solar energy resources. Thus, there are many solar power plants built in Taiwan. One of the most important components of a solar power plant is the solar panel. The solar panel supplier selection process is a complex and multi-faceted decision that can reduce the cost of purchasing equipment and supply this equipment on time. In this research, we propose fuzzy MCDM approach that includes fuzzy analytical hierarchy process model (FAHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) for evaluation and selection of solar panel supplier for a photovoltaic system design in Taiwan. The main objective of this work is to design a fuzzy MCDM approach for solar panel supplier selection based on qualitative and quantitative factors. In the first step of this research, FAHP is applied to define t... [more]

Distributed PV power generation necessitates both intra-hour and day-ahead forecasting of solar irradiance. The UTSA SkyImager is an inexpensive all-sky imaging system built using a Raspberry Pi computer with camera. Reconfigurable for different operational environments, it has been deployed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Joint Base San Antonio, and two locations in the Canary Islands. The original design used optical flow to extrapolate cloud positions, followed by ray-tracing to predict shadow locations on solar panels. The latter problem is mathematically ill-posed. This paper details an alternative strategy that uses artificial intelligence (AI) to forecast irradiance directly from an extracted subimage surrounding the sun. Several different AI models are compared including Deep Learning and Gradient Boosted Trees. Results and error metrics are presented for a total of 147 days of NREL data collected during the period from October 2015 to May 2016.

Accurate generation prediction at multiple time-steps is of paramount importance for reliable and economical operation of wind farms. This study proposed a novel algorithmic solution using various forms of machine learning techniques in a hybrid manner, including phase space reconstruction (PSR), input variable selection (IVS), K-means clustering and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The PSR technique transforms the historical time series into a set of phase-space variables combining with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) data to prepare candidate inputs. A minimal redundancy maximal relevance (mRMR) criterion based filtering approach is used to automatically select the optimal input variables for the multi-step ahead prediction. Then, the input instances are divided into a set of subsets using the K-means clustering to train the ANFIS. The ANFIS parameters are further optimized to improve the prediction performance by the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) algo... [more]

Wind energy is a commonly utilized renewable energy source, due to its merits of extensive distribution and rich reserves. However, as wind speed fluctuates violently and uncertainly at all times, wind power integration may affect the security and stability of power system. In this study, we propose an ensemble model for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. It consists of wavelet threshold denoising (WTD), recurrent neural network (RNN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Firstly, WTD smooths the wind speed series in order to better capture its variation trend. Secondly, RNNs with different architectures are trained on the denoising datasets, operating as sub-models for point wind speed forecasting. Thirdly, ANFIS is innovatively established as the top layer of the entire ensemble model to compute the final point prediction result, in order to take full advantages of a limited number of deep-learning-based sub-models. Lastly, variances are obtained from sub-models and t... [more]

Medical data classification is an important factor in improving diagnosis and treatment and can assist physicians in making decisions about serious diseases by collecting symptoms and medical analyses. In this work, hybrid classification optimization methods such as Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swam Optimization (PSO), and Fireworks Algorithm (FWA), are proposed for enhancing the classification accuracy of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The enhancement process is tested through two experiments. First, the proposed algorithms are applied on five benchmark medical data sets from the repository of the University of California in Irvine (UCI). The model with the best results is then used in the second experiment, which focuses on tuning the parameters of the selected algorithm by choosing a different number of iterations in ANNs with different numbers of hidden layers. Enhanced ANN with the three optimization algorithms are tested on biological gene sequence big dataset obtained... [more]

A phenomenological model was developed to describe the dynamic evolution of the batch suspension polymerization of methyl methacrylate in terms of reactor temperature, pressure, concentrations and molecular properties of the final polymer. Then, the phenomenological model was used as a process constraint in dynamic data reconciliation procedures, which allowed for the successful monitoring of reaction variables in real-time and on-line. The obtained results indicate that heat transfer coefficients change significantly during the reaction time and from batch to batch, exerting a tremendous impact on the process operation. Obtained results also indicate that it can be difficult to attain thermodynamic equilibrium conditions in this system, because of the continuous condensation of evaporated monomer and the large mass transfer resistance offered by the viscous suspended droplets.

Energy optimization in buildings by controlling the Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system is being researched extensively. In this paper, a model-free actor-critic Reinforcement Learning (RL) controller is designed using a variant of artificial recurrent neural networks called Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. Optimization of thermal comfort alongside energy consumption is the goal in tuning this RL controller. The test platform, our office space, is designed using SketchUp. Using OpenStudio, the HVAC system is installed in the office. The control schemes (ideal thermal comfort, a traditional control and the RL control) are implemented in MATLAB. Using the Building Control Virtual Test Bed (BCVTB), the control of the thermostat schedule during each sample time is implemented for the office in EnergyPlus alongside local weather data. Results from training and validation indicate that the RL controller improves thermal comfort by an average of 15% and energy effici... [more]