Forecasting the electricity consumption is an essential activity to keep the grid stable and avoid problems in the devices connected to the grid. Equaling consumption to electricity production is crucial in the electricity market. The grids worldwide use different methodologies to predict the demand, in order to keep the grid stable, but is there any difference between making a short time prediction of active power and reactive power into the grid? The current paper analyzes the most usual forecasting algorithms used in the electrical grids: ‘X of Y’, weighted average, comparable day, and regression. The subjects of the study were 36 different buildings in Terni, Italy. The data supplied for Terni buildings was split into active and reactive power demand to the grid. The presented approach gives the possibility to apply the forecasting algorithm in order to predict the active and reactive power and then compare the discrepancy (error) associated with forecasting methodologies. In this... [more]

The article presents the creation of characteristic polynomials on the basis of fractional powers j of dynamic systems and problems related to the determination of the stability intervals of such systems.

Since the middle of the 20th century many any buildings were built without any energy standards and still have a comparably poor energy quality. To obtain an overview of the current thermal quality of buildings in a whole city district, it may be promising to work with thermographic images obtained by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Aerial thermography represents a fast and cost-efficient approach compared to traditional terrestrial thermography. In this paper, we describe an approach to finding thermal bridges on aerial thermographic images and characterizing them in terms of their risk of mold formation, energy losses, retrofit costs, and retrofit benefits. To identify thermal bridge types that can be detected reliably on aerial thermographic images, we use a dataset collected with a UAV in an urban district of the German city of Karlsruhe. We classify and characterize 14 relevant thermal bridge types for the German building cohorts of the 1950s and 1960s. Concerning the criterion of... [more]

The pedestrian is the least protected road user. A large number of accidents involving pedestrians occur at pedestrian crossings. Bad lighting or a complete lack of it is one of the causes of accidents in these places. Currently, there are no uniform requirements in Europe for the lighting of pedestrian crossings. Each country is trying to create its system of requirements and assessment of lighting of pedestrian crossings. Measurement procedures and required lighting parameter values often vary significantly across countries. This paper discusses the results of measurements carried out at selected pedestrian crossings using two different measurement grids. The lighting quality at the tested crossings has been assessed based on the lighting requirements in force in two EU countries. In addition, we present the results for the illuminance contrast of a measurement board, representing the silhouette of a pedestrian on a crossing, with the background. Based on the determined contrast, we... [more]

This paper proposes a method to detect disconnection faults and their exact location in PV systems. The proposed method injects multiple frequencies into a PV system with a transmitter and detects the injected signal using a receiver. The signal detected by the receiver exhibits different frequency characteristics on a disconnection failure. Based on this characteristic, a disconnection failure can be detected. In addition, by detecting the frequency radiated through the disconnection point, the exact disconnection point can be detected.

In this paper, two main ideas of chemical kinetics are distinguished, i.e., a hierarchy and commensuration. A new class of chemical kinetic models is proposed and defined, i.e., egalitarian kinetic models (EKM). Contrary to hierarchical kinetic models (HKM), for the models of the EKM class, all kinetic coefficients are equal. Analysis of EKM models for some complex chemical reactions is performed for sequences of irreversible reactions. Analytic expressions for acyclic and cyclic mechanisms of egalitarian kinetics are obtained. Perspectives on the application of egalitarian models for reversible reactions are discussed. All analytical results are illustrated by examples.

Low porosity-permeability structures and microcracks, where gas is produced, are the main characteristics of tight sandstone gas reservoirs in the Sichuan Basin, China. In this work, an analysis of amplitude variation with offset (AVO) is performed. Based on the experimental and log data, sensitivity analysis is performed to sort out the rock physics attributes sensitive to microcrack and total porosities. The Biot−Rayleigh poroelasticity theory describes the complexity of the rock and yields the seismic properties, such as Poisson’s ratio and P-wave impedance, which are used to build rock-physics templates calibrated with ultrasonic data at varying effective pressures. The templates are then applied to seismic data of the Xujiahe formation to estimate the total and microcrack porosities, indicating that the results are consistent with actual gas production reports.

Hot springs in the Alvord/Pueblo valleys in southeastern Oregon are analogous to Basin-and-Range hydrothermal systems where heat source and permeable pathways are met through crustal thinning. Silica sinter deposition at Mickey Springs, Alvord Valley, predates the late Pleistocene high stand of pluvial Lake Alvord. At Borax Lake, Pueblo Valley, sinter deposition occurred during the Holocene. This study examines the evolution of springs at Mickey Springs, where three morphologies of sinter are present: (1) basalt clasts surrounded by sinter in interbedded conglomerate and sandstone, (2) pool-edge and aprons of sinter surrounding depressions (12−32 m diameter), and (3) quaquaversal sinter mounds with pool-edge sinter. The oldest sinter occurs in silica-cemented conglomerate and sandstone, where deposition occurred prior to 30 kya. Deposition around broad depressions and mounds occurred after 30 kya but before water levels began to rise in pluvial Lake Alvord. Thermoluminescence dates sug... [more]

HVAF (High Velocity Air Flame) flame spraying can generate supersonic high-temperature gas jets, enabling thermal spraying at unprecedented speeds. However, there is a problem with the energy cost of this device. This study focused on combustors that used cheap liquid fuel (kerosene) as the fuel for HVAF. In this research, we have developed a compact combustor with a narrow channel as a heat source for the HVAF heat atomizer. Using this combustor, the stability of the flame formed in the combustor, the morphology of the flame, and the temperature behavior in the combustion chamber were investigated in detail. As a result, the magnitude of the swirling airflow had a great influence on the structure of the flame formed in the combustor, and the stable combustion range of the combustor could be determined. As the swirling air flow rate changes, the equivalent ratio of the entire combustor changes significantly, and the flame structure also transition from the premixed flame to the diffusi... [more]

In this work, a novel biomass, the extraction residue of Sapindus pericarp (SP), was torrefied by using an electronic oven under a wide range of temperature (i.e., 200−320 °C) and residence times (i.e., 0−60 min). From the results of the thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) of SP, a significant weight loss was observed in the temperature range of 200−400 °C, which can be divided into the decompositions of hemicellulose (major)/lignin (minor) (200−320 °C) and cellulose (major)/lignin (minor) (320−400 °C). Based on the fuel properties of the feedstock SP and SP-torrefied products, the optimal torrefaction conditions can be found at around 280 °C for holding 30 min, showing that the calorific value, enhancement factor and energy yield of the torrefied biomass were enhanced to be 28.60 MJ/kg, 1.36 and 82.04 wt%, respectively. Consistently, the values of the calorific value, carbon content and molar carbon/hydrogen (C/H) ratio indicated an increasing trend at higher torrefaction temperatures an... [more]

Most of the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) oil and gas (OG) installations have traditionally adopted in situ power generation, which is not only inefficient but also generating about 70% of the offshore CO2 emissions. The offshore wind and energy storage technologies for deep water are developing at a fast pace, enabling great opportunities for the OG installations located in the North Sea. In this paper, a pathway for the UKCS offshore OG installations electrification is introduced. The aim is to provide different power architectures that facilitate the OG installations’ electrification, while benefiting from the existing and planned UK offshore wind power. Four hypothetical case studies (based on real data) were created, along the UKCS, where the corresponding power architectures were proposed. The selection of each architecture power component (e.g., transformers, converters and cables), as well as the transmission and distribution technology (e.g., AC or DC), is also provided and just... [more]

The paper presents a description of the method and the results of calculating the leakage reactance of high-power synchronous generator end windings using the finite element method. This reactance is one of the components of the stator leakage reactance of synchronous generators. The calculations were carried out under the assumption of a three-dimensional field distribution in a synchronous generator. The thus calculated value of the leakage reactance of the end windings was compared with the calculation results obtained using traditional, analytical formulas known from the literature. The analysis of the influence of the reactance value of the end windings on the transient waveforms at a three-phase short-circuit of the stator windings was performed based on a two-dimensional field-circuit model.

In the EU 28, the installed heating appliance stock is quite old, with an actual replacement rate of 4%. This is directly reflected in the average efficiency of the installed heating systems, where around 60% of the stock is rated with an energy class of C or D (the lowest classes of the energy label scale). The European project HARP aims at raising consumers’ awareness of the planned replacement of their old and inefficient heating appliances with more efficient and renewable solutions. In this direction, an energy labeling methodology for old appliances has been developed to rate the installed stock before the introduction of the EU energy label. The methodology has been developed for space heating appliances and water heaters, targeting two types of users: end consumers and professional users. The validation considered about 4600 space heating appliances and 800 water heaters built between 1972 and 2019. Three heating appliances and two water heaters were tested in the laboratory, c... [more]

COVID-19 disease shocked global economic activity and affected the electricity markets due to lockdown and work-from-home policies. Therefore, this study proposes an empirical analysis to identify the electricity spot price response during the preventive and mandatory insulation in Colombia, where the economic contraction caused the largest decrease in the electricity demand, especially in the industrial sector. The methodology applied was quantile regression to quantify the non-linear effect on the spot price returns, and two sample periods were selected to contrast the results: 2018 and 2019. The main findings showed that regulated demand variation caused the highest variability on the spot price dynamic during the strict quarantine. However, the price could not fully capture the effects of the demand change due to the short duration of the shock and, also, the price variability in 2019 was higher than 2020 by an El Niño shock.

A consignment auction aims to increase political feasibility by reducing the financial burden of initial permits allocation and to do the role of price discovery. However, previous analytical models presented contradictory results for the price discovery function of a consignment auction. Thus, this study reexamines whether a consignment auction can perform its price discovery function. The study uses a simple game model with several assumptions differentiated from previous analytical models: explicit consideration of the secondary market and firms as price-takers with various behaviors to respond to uncertainty about the price in the secondary market. Firms are classified into three types: speculators who seek arbitrage, doctrinarians who determine a permit demand based on an estimation of their marginal abatement cost, and neutralists who keep a permit demand the same as initial emission endowments. The results reveal that when a consignment auction was introduced, the expected equil... [more]

This paper proposes a methodology for plant root system and soil moisture analysis through the geoelectrical prospecting method. Overall, bench and field experiments are implemented to analyze the behavior of electrical conductivity of the soil in relation to moisture content and plant root system growth. Specifically, Wenner array and lateral profiling technique are used to stratify the soil in horizontal layers, performing in-depth analysis. Millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) and sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) are used to analyze the root system behavior. Results show that the soil water dynamics can be observed through soil stratification in horizontal layers and the plant root system is correlated with apparent electrical conductivity of the soil. Thus, geoelectric prospecting methods can be used as an analysis tool, both of soil moisture dynamics and of plant roots, to support decision making regarding soil and crop management.

The energy efficiency gap is known as the difference between optimal level of energy efficiency and the actual level of achieved energy efficiency. Energy management has proven to further close the energy efficiency gap. Energy management may differ depending on whether it concerns a large, energy-intensive company or small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are of high interest since they form a large share of the economy today. For SMEs, a lighter form of energy management, in the form of energy efficiency network participation, has proven to deliver sound energy efficiency impact, while for larger, energy-intensive firms, a certified energy management system may be more suitable. However, various barriers inhibit adoption of energy efficiency measures. While there is an array of research on barriers to and driving forces for energy efficiency in general, research on barriers to, and driving forces for, energy management is rare, one exception being a study of energy-intensive... [more]

The behavior of convective boundary conditions is studied to delineate their role in heat and mass relegation in the presence of radiation, chemical reaction, and hydro-magnetic forces in three-dimensional Powell−Eyring nanofluids. Implications concerning non-Fourier’s heat flux and non-Fick’s mass flux with respect to temperature nanoparticle concentration were examined to discuss the graphical attributes of the principal parameters. An efficient optimal homotopy analysis method is used to solve the transformed partial differential equations. Tables and graphs are physically interpreted for significant parameters.

Shunbei Oilfield is characterized by substantial heterogeneity and a complex oil−water relationship. The water-oil interface is dynamically changing, and it is a crucial parameter for reserve calculation and evaluation. The main purpose is to analyze the effect of fluid flow in multi-scale media on the water-oil interface. It is well known that the fracture-cavity reservoirs have well-developed fractures and karst caves, and their distribution is complex in Shunbei Oilfield. This paper presents a way to simplify the fracture-cavity system first, then uses a unit of oil wells as a system to study the water-oil interface, which avoids impact on the water-oil interface due to oil production. A detailed step by step procedure for solving the semi-analytical solution of water-oil interface in a fracture-cavity reservoir by using an explicit algorithm and a successive steady-state method is presented. The solution can be used to investigate water-oil interface behavior. In this paper, we val... [more]

The improved discrete ordinates method (IDOM) developed in our previous paper is extended to solve radiative transfer in three-dimensional radiative systems with anisotropic scattering medium. In IDOM, radiative intensities in a large number of new discrete directions are calculated by direct integration of the conventional discrete ordinates method (DOM) results, and radiative heat flux is obtained by integrating radiative intensities in these new discrete directions. Ray effects and false scattering, which tend to compensate each other, are investigated together in IDOM. Results show that IDOM can mitigate both of them effectively with high computation efficiency. Finally, the effect of scattering phase function on radiative transfer is studied. Results of radiative heat flux at boundaries containing media with different scattering phase functions are compared and analyzed. This paper indicates that the IDOM can overcome the shortages of the conventional DOM well while inheriting its... [more]

This paper investigates the impact of parameter variation between parallel connected SiC MOSFETs on short circuit (SC) performance. SC tests are performed on parallel connected devices with different switching rates, junction temperatures and threshold voltages (VTH). The results show that VTH variation is the most critical factor affecting reduced robustness of parallel devices under SC. The SC current conducted per device is shown to increase under parallel connection compared to single device measurements. VTH shift from bias−temperature−instability (BTI) is known to occur in SiC MOSFETs, hence this paper combines BTI and SC tests. The results show that a positive VGS stress on the gate before the SC measurement reduces the peak SC current by a magnitude that is proportional to VGS stress time. Repeating the measurements at elevated temperatures reduces the time dependency of the VTH shift, thereby indicating thermal acceleration of negative charge trapping. VTH recovery is also obs... [more]

Human factor plays an important role in the implementation of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0). The concept of Industry 4.0 is poorly researched, particularly the social aspect. The authors have conducted a study to determine the level of preparation of employees for the introduction of technological changes. This study involved conducting a survey on a sample of 453 employees based in four organizations within the automotive industry. The respondents were thereafter divided into groups based on age and positions held. The employees’ knowledge of the Industry 4.0 technology was examined, and their openness to change and readiness to increase competence was determined. A causal relationship was found between knowledge and trust in technology. Employees’ fears associated with production automation were discussed. A group of production workers was found to be the least prepared to implement technology changes. Actions to improve the situation and potential consequences of i... [more]

It is important to predict extreme electricity demand in power utilities as the uncertainties in the future of electricity demand distribution have to be taken into consideration to achieve the desired goals. The study focused on the prediction of extremely high conditional quantiles (between 0.95 and 0.9999) and extremely low quantiles (between 0.001 and 0.05) of electricity demand using South African data. The paper discusses a comparative analysis of the additive quantile regression model with an extremal mixture model and a nonlinear quantile regression model. The estimated quantiles at each level were then combined using the median approach. The comparisons were carried out using daily peak electricity demand data ranging from January 1997 to May 2014. Proper scoring rules were used to compare the three models, and the model with the smallest score was preferred. The results could be useful to system operators including decision-makers in power utility companies by giving insights... [more]

This paper deals with the problem of managing the surplus that arises during the seasonal production of pellets, which will be sold in the period of increased demand. Dijkstra’s algorithm is used in issues connected with finding a new storage place with a view of the optimisation of the transport costs of pellets produced by a company in 18 different towns in the Lubelskie Voivodeship in Poland. The most optimal location for the new pellet storage site has been determined, for which the total length of the traveled routes is the shortest, taking into account the actual shares of individual plants in the total production. The construction of the graph with the shortest paths was made on the basis of the existing network of available transport roads, and the nodes of the graph were their intersections. The most advantageous storage location of pellets was identified by the calculation the total transport cost using a minimum-cost tree of shortest paths. Based on the estimated transport a... [more]

The successful deployment of the solar water heater (SWH) in the residential sector relies on the household’s bounded rational decision-makers to accept this system. The decision is shaped by a wide spectrum of predictors that form heterogeneous behaviour. Over the past years, research has employed a wide range of these predictors to understand their role in the decision and predict the behaviour and diffusion rate of SWHs. This review primarily identifies economic and technical predictors of 100 quantitative and qualitative studies on the residential SWH adoption decision. For the identified predictors, their characteristics and popularity are explored in a structured and coherent framework. The review further investigates the correlation between the identified predictors and the adoption decision from 97 of the 100 initially reviewed studies. The outcome of the research revealed 123 (56 economic and 67 technical) predictors that were classified into seven categories. ‘Financial incen... [more]