Weather variables are an important driver of power generation from renewable energy sources. However, accurately predicting such variables is a challenging task, which has a significant impact on the accuracy of the power generation forecasts. In this study, we explore the impact of imperfect weather forecasts on two classes of forecasting methods (statistical and machine learning) for the case of wind power generation. We perform a stress test analysis to measure the robustness of different methods on the imperfect weather input, focusing on both the point forecasts and the 95% prediction intervals. The results indicate that different methods should be considered according to the uncertainty characterizing the weather forecasts.

With the global increase in demand for energy, energy conservation of research and development buildings has become of primary importance for building owners. Knowledge based on the patterns in energy consumption of previous years could be used to predict the near-future energy usage of buildings, to optimize and facilitate more effective energy consumption. Hence, this research aimed to develop a generic model for predicting energy consumption. Air-conditioning was used to exemplify the generic model for electricity consumption, as it is the process that often consumes the most energy in a public building. The purpose of this paper is to present this model and the related findings. After causative factors were determined, the methods of linear regression and various machine learning techniques—including the earlier machine learning techniques of support vector machine, random forest, and multilayer perceptron, and the later machine learning techniques of deep neural network, recurrent... [more]

Demand response (DR) is an integral component of smart grid operations that offers the necessary flexibility to support its decarbonisation. In incentive-based DR programs, deviations from the scheduled DR capacity affect the grid’s energy balance and result in revenue losses for the DR participants. This issue aggravates with increasing DR delivery from participants such as large consumer buildings who have limited standard methods to follow for DR capacity scheduling. Load curtailment based DR capacity availability from such consumers can be forecasted reliably with the help of supervised machine learning (ML) models. This study demonstrates the development of data-driven ML based total and flexible load forecast models for a retail building. The ML model development tasks such as data pre-processing, training-testing dataset preparation, cross-validation, algorithm selection, hyperparameter optimisation, feature ranking, model selection and model evaluation are guided by deployment-... [more]

Wind energy is the most used renewable energy worldwide second only to hydropower. However, the stochastic nature of wind speed makes it harder for wind farms to manage the future power production and maintenance schedules efficiently. Many wind speed prediction models exist that focus on advance neural networks and/or preprocessing techniques to improve the accuracy. Since most of these models require a large amount of historic wind data and are validated using the data split method, the application to real-world scenarios cannot be determined. In this paper, we present a multi-step univariate prediction model for wind speed data inspired by the residual U-net architecture of the convolutional neural network (CNN). We propose a residual dilated causal convolutional neural network (Res-DCCNN) with nonlinear attention for multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting. Our model can outperform long-term short-term memory networks (LSTM), gated recurrent units (GRU), and Res-DCCNN using sliding... [more]

This paper uses a two-layered soft voting-based ensemble model to predict the interfacial tension (IFT), as one of the transformer oil test parameters. The input feature vector is composed of acidity, water content, dissipation factor, color and breakdown voltage. To test the generalization of the model, the training data was obtained from one utility company and the testing data was obtained from another utility. The model results in an optimal accuracy of 0.87 and a F1-score of 0.89. Detailed studies were also carried out to find the conditions under which the model renders optimal results.

Prediction models in mobility and transportation maintenance systems have been dramatically improved by using machine learning methods. This paper proposes novel machine learning models for an intelligent road inspection. The traditional road inspection systems based on the pavement condition index (PCI) are often associated with the critical safety, energy and cost issues. Alternatively, the proposed models utilize surface deflection data from falling weight deflectometer (FWD) tests to predict the PCI. Machine learning methods are the single multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks as well as their hybrids, i.e., Levenberg−Marquardt (MLP-LM), scaled conjugate gradient (MLP-SCG), imperialist competitive (RBF-ICA), and genetic algorithms (RBF-GA). Furthermore, the committee machine intelligent systems (CMIS) method was adopted to combine the results and improve the accuracy of the modeling. The results of the analysis have been verified through using... [more]

In order for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to correctly predict solar irradiance reaching the earth’s surface for more accurate solar power forecasting, it is important to initialize the NWP model with accurate cloud information. Knowing where the clouds are located is the first step. Using data from geostationary satellites is an attractive possibility given the low latencies and high spatio-temporal resolution provided nowadays. Here, we explore the potential of utilizing the random forest machine learning method to generate the cloud mask from GOES-16 radiances. We first perform a predictor selection process to determine the optimal predictor set for the random forest predictions of the horizontal cloud fraction and then determine the appropriate threshold to generate the cloud mask prediction. The results show that the random forest method performs as well as the GOES-16 level 2 clear sky mask product with the ability to customize the threshold for under or over predict... [more]

Environmental and economic needs drive the increased penetration of intermittent renewable energy in electricity grids, enhancing uncertainty in the prediction of market conditions and network constraints. Thereafter, the importance of energy systems with flexible dispatch is reinforced, ensuring energy storage as an essential asset for these systems to be able to balance production and demand. In order to do so, such systems should participate in wholesale energy markets, enabling competition among all players, including conventional power plants. Consequently, an effective dispatch schedule considering market and resource uncertainties is crucial. In this context, an innovative dispatch optimization strategy for schedule planning of renewable systems with storage is presented. Based on an optimization algorithm combined with a machine-learning approach, the proposed method develops a financial optimal schedule with the incorporation of uncertainty information. Simulations performed w... [more]

As the world is aware, the trend of generating energy sources has been changing from conventional fossil fuels to sustainable energy. In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the ratio of renewable energy sources should be increased, and solar and wind power, typically, are driving this energy change. However, renewable energy sources highly depend on weather conditions and have intermittent generation characteristics, thus embedding uncertainty and variability. As a result, it can cause variability and uncertainty in the power system, and accurate prediction of renewable energy output is essential to address this. To solve this issue, much research has studied prediction models, and machine learning is one of the typical methods. In this paper, we used a bagging model to predict solar energy output. Bagging generally uses a decision tree as a base learner. However, to improve forecasting accuracy, we proposed a bagging model using an ensemble model as a base learner and adding pas... [more]

The prediction of electricity generation is one of the most important tasks in the management of modern energy systems. Improving the assertiveness of this prediction can support government agencies, electric companies, and power suppliers in minimizing the electricity cost to the end consumer. In this study, the problem of forecasting the energy demand in the Brazilian Interconnected Power Grid was addressed, by gathering different energy-related datasets taken from public Brazilian agencies into a unified and open database, used to tune three machine learning models. In contrast to several works in the Brazilian context, which provide only annual/monthly load estimations, the learning approaches Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machines were trained and optimized as new ensemble-based predictors with parameter tuning to reach accurate daily/monthly forecasts. Moreover, a detailed and in-depth exploration of energy-related data as obtained from the Brazilian power... [more]

Rotating machines are pivotal to the achievement of core operational objectives within various industries. Recent drives for developing smart systems coupled with the significant advancements in computational technologies have immensely increased the complexity of this group of critical physical industrial assets (PIAs). Vibration-based techniques have contributed significantly towards understanding the failure modes of rotating machines and their associated components. However, the very large data requirements attributable to routine vibration-based fault diagnosis at multiple measurement locations has led to the quest for alternative approaches that possess the capability to reduce faults diagnosis downtime. Initiatives aimed at rationalising vibration-based condition monitoring data in order to just retain information that offer maximum variability includes the combination of coherent composite spectrum (CCS) and principal components analysis (PCA) for rotor-related faults diagnosis... [more]

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) recently updated the comprehensive wind power forecasting system in collaboration with Xcel Energy addressing users’ needs and requirements by enhancing and expanding integration between numerical weather prediction and machine-learning methods. While the original system was designed with the primary focus on day-ahead power prediction in support of power trading, the enhanced system provides short-term forecasting for unit commitment and economic dispatch, uncertainty quantification in wind speed prediction with probabilistic forecasting, and prediction of extreme events such as icing. Furthermore, the empirical power conversion machine-learning algorithms now use a quantile approach to data quality control that has improved the accuracy of the methods. Forecast uncertainty is quantified using an analog ensemble approach. Two methods of providing short-range ramp forecasts are blended: the variational doppler radar analysis system an... [more]

The main purpose of this paper is to present a novel algorithmic reinforcement learning (RL) method for damping the voltage and frequency oscillations in a micro-grid (MG) with penetration of wind turbine generators (WTG). First, the continuous-time environment of the system is discretized to a definite number of states to form the Markov decision process (MDP). To solve the modeled discrete RL-based problem, Q-learning method, which is a model-free and simple iterative solution mechanism is used. Therefore, the presented control strategy is adaptive and it is suitable for the realistic power systems with high nonlinearities. The proposed adaptive RL controller has a supervisory nature that can improve the performance of any kind of controllers by adding an offset signal to the output control signal of them. Here, a part of Denmark distribution system is considered and the dynamic performance of the suggested control mechanism is evaluated and compared with fuzzy-proportional integral... [more]

Tourism development in ecologically vulnerable areas like the lake Baikal region in Eastern Siberia is a challenging problem. To this end, the dynamical models of AC/DC hybrid isolated power system consisting of four power grids with renewable generation units and energy storage systems are proposed using the advanced methods based on deep reinforcement learning and integral equations. First, the wind and solar irradiance potential of several sites on the lake Baikal’s banks is analyzed as well as the electric load as a function of the climatic conditions. The optimal selection of the energy storage system components is supported in online mode. The approach is justified using the retrospective meteorological datasets. Such a formulation will allow us to develop a number of valuable recommendations related to the optimal control of several autonomous AC/DC hybrid power systems with different structures, equipment composition and kind of AC or DC current. Developed approach provides the... [more]

In most cases, the benchmarking models of energy use in houses are developed based on current and past data, and they continue to be used without any update. This paper proposes the method of retraining of benchmarking models by applying machine learning techniques when new measurements are made available. The method uses as a case study the measurements of heating energy demand from two semi-detached houses of Northern Canada. The results of the prediction of heating energy demand using static or augmented window techniques are compared with measurements. The daily energy signature is used as a benchmarking model due to its simplicity and performance. However, the proposed retraining method can be applied to any form of benchmarking model. The method should be applied in all possible situations, and be an integral part of intelligent building automation and control systems (BACS) for the ongoing commissioning for building energy-related applications.

Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, and associated uncertainty, for wind turbines (WTs) is a significant burden for wind farm operators. Many wind turbine failures are unpredictable while causing loss of energy production, and may also cause loss of asset. This study utilized 753 O&M event data from 21 wind turbines operating in Germany, to improve the prediction of failure frequency and associated costs. We applied Bayesian updating to predict wind turbine failure frequency and time-to-repair (TTR), in conjunction to machine learning techniques for assessing costs associated with failures. We found that time-to-failure (TTF), time-to-repair and the cost of failures depend on operational and environmental conditions. High elevation (>100 m) of the wind turbine installation was found to increase both the probability of failures and probability of delayed repairs. Furthermore, it was determined that direct-drive turbines are more favorable at locations with high capacity factor (more... [more]

Energy efficiency has aroused great interest in research worldwide, because energy consumption has increased in recent years, especially in the residential sector. The advances in energy conversion, along with new forms of communication, and information technologies have paved the way for what is now known as smart homes. The Internet of Things (IoT) is the convergence of various heterogeneous technologies from different application domains that are used to interconnect things through the Internet, thus allowing for the detection, monitoring, and remote control of multiple devices. Home automation systems (HAS) combined with IoT, big data technologies, and machine learning are alternatives that promise to contribute to greater energy efficiency. This work presents HEMS-IoT, a big data and machine learning-based smart home energy management system for home comfort, safety, and energy saving. We used the J48 machine learning algorithm and Weka API to learn user behaviors and energy consu... [more]

The usage of machine learning techniques is widely spread and has also been implemented in the wind industry in the last years. Many of these techniques have shown great success but need to constantly prove the expectation of functionality. This paper describes a new method to monitor the health of a wind turbine using an undercomplete autoencoder. To evaluate the health monitoring quality of the autoencoder, the number of anomalies before an event has happened are to be considered. The results show that around 35% of all historical events that have resulted into a failure show many anomalies. Furthermore, the wind turbine subsystems which are subject to good detectability are the rotor system and the control system. If only one third of the service duties can be planned in advance, and thereby the scheduling time can be reduced, huge cost saving potentials can be seen.

Currently, thanks to the rapid development of wireless sensor networks and network traffic monitoring, the data stream is gradually becoming one of the most popular data generating processes. The data stream is different from traditional static data. Cluster analysis is an important technology for data mining, which is why many researchers pay attention to grouping streaming data. In the literature, there are many data stream clustering techniques, unfortunately, very few of them try to solve the problem of clustering data streams coming from multiple sources. In this article, we present an algorithm with a tree structure for grouping data streams (in the form of a time series) that have similar properties and behaviors. We have evaluated our algorithm over real multivariate data streams generated by smart meter sensors—the Irish Commission for Energy Regulation data set. There were several measures used to analyze the various characteristics of a tree-like clustering structure (comput... [more]

Reynolds-stress closure modeling is critical to Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) analysis, and it remains a challenging issue in reducing both structural and parametric inaccuracies. This study first proposes a novel algebraic stress model named as tensorial quadratic eddy-viscosity model (TQEVM), in which nonlinear terms improve previous model-form failure due to neglection of nonlocal effects. Then a data-driven regression model based on a fully-connected deep neural network is designed to determine the TQEVM coefficients. The well-trained data-driven model using high-fidelity direct numerical simulation (DNS) data successfully learned the underlying input-output relationships, further obtaining spatial-dependent optimal values of these coefficients. Finally, detailed validations are made in wall-bounded flows where nonlocal effects are expected to be significant. Comparative results indicate that TQEVM provides improvements both for the stress-strain misalignment and stress an... [more]

Germany has experienced rapid growth in onshore wind capacities over the past two decades. Substantial capacities of offshore wind turbines have been added since 2013. On a local, highly-resolved level, this analysis evaluated if differences in wind speed forecast errors exist for offshore and onshore locations regarding magnitude and variation. A model based on the Extra Trees algorithm is proposed and found to be a viable method to transform local wind speeds and capacities into aggregated wind energy feed-in. This model was used to analyze if offshore and onshore wind power expansion lead to different distributions of day-ahead wind energy forecast errors in Germany. The Extra Trees model results indicate that offshore wind capacity expansion entails an energy forecast error distribution with more frequent medium to high deviations, stemming from larger and more variable wind speed deviations of offshore locations combined with greater geographical concentration of offshore wind tur... [more]

This paper examines the recent advances made in the field of Deep Learning (DL) methods for the automated identification of Partial Discharges (PD). PD activity is an indication of the state and operational conditions of electrical equipment systems. There are several techniques for on-line PD measurements, but the typical classification and recognition method is made off-line and involves an expert manually extracting appropriate features from raw data and then using these to diagnose PD type and severity. Many methods have been developed over the years, so that the appropriate features expertly extracted are used as input for Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. More recently, with the developments in computation and data storage, DL methods have been used for automated features extraction and classification. Several contributions have demonstrated that Deep Neural Networks (DNN) have better accuracy than the typical ML methods providing more efficient automated identification technique... [more]

Driver perception, decision, and control behaviors are easily affected by traffic conditions and driving style, showing the tendency of randomness and personalization. Brake intention and intensity are integrated and control-oriented parameters that are crucial to the development of an intelligent braking system. In this paper, a composite machine learning approach was proposed to predict driver brake intention and intensity with a proper prediction horizon. Various driving data were collected from Controller Area Network (CAN) bus under a real driving condition, which mainly contained urban and rural road types. ReliefF and RReliefF (they don’t have abbreviations) algorithms were employed as feature subset selection methods and applied in a prepossessing step before the training. The rank importance of selected predictors exhibited different trends or even negative trends when predicting brake intention and intensity. A soft clustering algorithm, Fuzzy C-means, was adopted to label th... [more]

Solar energy is considered the most abundant form of energy available on earth. However, the efficiency of photovoltaic (PV) panels is greatly reduced due to the accumulation of dust particles on the surface of PV panels. The optimization of the cleaning cycles of a PV power plant through condition monitoring of PV panels is crucial for its optimal performance. Specialized equipment and weather stations are deployed for large-scale PV plants to monitor the amount of soil accumulated on panel surface. However, not much focus is given to small- and medium-scale PV plants, where the costs associated with specialized weather stations cannot be justified. To overcome this hurdle, a cost-effective and scalable solution is required. Therefore, a new centralized cloud-based solar conversion recovery system (SCRS) is proposed in this research work. The proposed system utilizes the Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud-based centralized architecture, which allows users to remotely monitor the amoun... [more]

Most of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) models currently used in energy forecasting are traditional and deterministic. Recently, a novel deep learning paradigm, called ‘transformer’, has been developed, which adopts the mechanism of self-attention. Transformers are designed to better process and predict sequential data sets (i.e., historical time records) as well as to track any relationship in the sequential data. So far, a few transformer-based applications have been established, but no industry-scale application exists to build energy forecasts. Accordingly, this study is the world’s first to establish a transformer-based model to estimate the energy consumption of a real-scale university library and benchmark with a baseline model (Support Vector Regression) SVR. With a large dataset from 1 September 2017 to 13 November 2021 with 30 min granularity, the results using four historical electricity readings to estimate one future reading demonstrate that the SVR (an R2 of 0.92) presen... [more]