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Records Added in 2023
Records added in 2023
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6051. LAPSE:2023.30860
iMAGINE—Visions, Missions, and Steps for Successfully Delivering the Nuclear System of the 21st Century
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: iMAGINE, mission development, Nuclear, nuclear energy, nuclear reactors, nuclear waste management, strategic development, vision development
Nuclear technologies have the potential to play a major role in the transition to a global net-zero society. Their primary advantage is the capability to deliver controllable 24/7 energy on demand. However, as a prerequisite for successful worldwide application, significant innovation will be required to create the nuclear systems of the 21st century, the need of the hour. The pros (low harmful emissions, high reliability, low operational expenses, and high energy density) and cons (environmental damage, fuel waste disposal concerns, limited uranium reserves, and long construction time-frame) of nuclear are discussed and analysed at different levels—the societal and public recognition and concerns (accidents, weapons, mining, and waste) as well as the scientific/engineering and economic level—to assure a demand-driven development. Based on the analysis of the different challenges, a vision for the nuclear system of the 21st century is synthesised consisting of three pillars—unlimited n... [more]
6052. LAPSE:2023.30859
Experimental Study of the Shear Characteristics of Fault Filled with Different Types of Gouge in Underground Gas Storage
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: 3D fractal dimension of roughness, depleted gas storage, fault gouge, filled fault, shear failure, underground gas storage
In the current international situation, energy storage is an important means for countries to stabilize their energy supply, of which underground storage of natural gas is an important part. Depleted gas reservoir type underground gas storage (UGS) has become the key type of gas storage to be built by virtue of safety and environmental protection and low cost. The multi-cycle high injection and production rate of natural gas in the depleted gas reservoir type UGS will cause the in-situ stress disturbance. The slip risk of fault in the geological system increases greatly compared with that before the construction of the storage engineering, which becomes a great threat to the sealing of the gas storage. Reasonable injection and production strategy depend on the reliable assessment of the shear behavior of the fault belt, which can guarantee the sealing characteristics of the UGS geological system and the efficient operation of the UGS. Therefore, the shear behavior of the fault is studi... [more]
6053. LAPSE:2023.30858
Different Control Techniques of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor with Fuzzy Logic for Electric Vehicles: Analysis, Modelling, and Comparison
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: direct torque control, electric vehicle, fuzzy direct torque control, Li-ion-battery, model predictive direct torque control, permanent magnet synchronous motor
This paper presents a detailed analysis and comparative study of three torque control methodologies with fuzzy logic, namely direct torque control (DTC), fuzzy direct torque control (FDTC), and model predictive direct torque control (MPDTC), for PMSM control applied to an electric vehicle. The three control strategies are designed and developed to control torque in order to achieve vehicle requirements, such as minimum torque and flux ripples, fast dynamic response, and maximum efficiency. To enhance the performance and efficiency of the overall drive, a bidirectional DC/DC buck-boost converter is connected to the Li-ion battery. In addition, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) is used in the outer loop to control the speed of the PMSM. As a result, the tuning difficulty of the conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller is avoided and the dynamic speed response is improved. Simulation results obtained from the three control techniques establish that the proposed system via the MPDTC... [more]
6054. LAPSE:2023.30857
Optimal Configuration of User-Side Energy Storage for Multi-Transformer Integrated Industrial Park Microgrid
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: Energy Storage, industrial park microgrid, multi-transformer, optimal configuration, user-side
Under a two-part tariff, the user-side installation of photovoltaic and energy storage systems can simultaneously lower the electricity charge and demand charge. How to plan the energy storage capacity and location against the backdrop of a fully installed photovoltaic system is a critical element in determining the economic benefits of users. In view of this, we propose an optimal configuration of user-side energy storage for a multi-transformer-integrated industrial park microgrid. First, the objective function of user-side energy storage planning is built with the income and cost of energy storage in the whole life cycle as the core elements. This is conducted by taking into consideration the time-of-use electricity price, demand price, on-grid electricity price, and energy storage operation and maintenance costs. Then, considering the load characteristics and bidirectional energy interaction of different nodes, a user-side decentralized energy storage configuration model is develop... [more]
6055. LAPSE:2023.30856
A WGAN-GP-Based Scenarios Generation Method for Wind and Solar Power Complementary Study
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: complementary characteristic, renewable energy curtailment, scenario generation, wind-solar hybrid system
The issue of renewable energy curtailment poses a crucial challenge to its effective utilization. To address this challenge, mitigating the impact of the intermittency and volatility of wind and solar energy is essential. In this context, this paper employs scenario analysis to examine the complementary features of wind and solar hybrid systems. Firstly, the study defines two types of complementary indicators that distinguish between output smoothing and source-load matching. Secondly, a novel method for generating wind and solar output scenarios based on improved Generative Adversarial Networks is presented and compared against the conventional Monte Carlo and Copula function methods. Lastly, the generated wind and solar scenarios are employed to furnish complementary features. The testing results across eight regions indicate the proposed scenario generation method proficiently depicts the historical relevance as well as future uncertainties. This study found that compared to the Cop... [more]
6056. LAPSE:2023.30855
An EV Charging Guidance Strategy Based on the Hierarchical Comprehensive Evaluation Method
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, charging guidance strategy, electric vehicles, fast charging station, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the entropy weight method
With the increasing number of electric vehicles (EVs), the randomness of the charging load will have an increasing impact on the distribution network (DN) and road network. Different guidance strategies lead to different network-related capabilities of fast charging stations (FCSs). In this paper, a hierarchical and comprehensive evaluation method is proposed for the network-related capability of FCSs. Based on the comprehensive evaluation method, a charging guidance strategy is proposed to improve the network-related capability of FCSs. Finally, the network connection capability of FCSs under four strategies is comprehensively evaluated to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
6057. LAPSE:2023.30854
Improving the Efficiency of Hedge Trading Using Higher-Order Standardized Weather Derivatives for Wind Power
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: efficient frontier, generalized additive model, LASSO regression, optimal hedging, weather derivatives, wind power
Since the future output of wind power generation is uncertain due to weather conditions, there is an increasing need to manage the risks associated with wind power businesses, which have been increasingly implemented in recent years. This study introduces multiple weather derivatives of wind speed and temperature and examines their effectiveness in reducing (hedging) the fluctuation risk of future cash flows attributed to wind power generation. Given the diversification of hedgers and hedging needs, we propose new standardized derivatives with higher-order monomial payoff functions, such as “wind speed cubic derivatives” and “wind speed and temperature cross-derivatives,” to minimize the cash flow variance and develop a market-trading scheme to practically use these derivatives in wind power businesses. In particular, while demonstrating the importance of standardizing weather derivatives regarding market liquidity and efficiency, we propose a strategy to narrow down the required numbe... [more]
6058. LAPSE:2023.30853
Improving Energy Access in Low-Income Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Case Study of Malawi
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: electricity, energy access, low-income countries, Malawi, power generation, renewable energy systems, Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)
The inaccessibility of modern energy in low-income countries (LIC), especially in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region, continues to be a problem in the 21st century. The lack of access to modern energy has led to an inability to implement developmental structures and initiatives. While considerable progress and successes have been realised in the last three decades with increased activities and global commitments from international governments and multinational agencies through electrification projects in the SSA region, SSA countries remain off-track in their efforts to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 7. This is mainly demonstrated in sparsely populated rural regions where the high cost of centralised power generation, poor transmission and distribution infrastructures and economic factors have been a major barrier to electricity expansion. Although the use of RES (i.e., decentralised or stand-alone systems) have been acknowledged by the International Energy Agency... [more]
6059. LAPSE:2023.30852
A Critical Review of Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Systems for Automotive Applications: Components, Materials, and Comparative Assessment
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: comparative analysis, cost assessment, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen supply chain, internal combustion engines, Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell system
The development of innovative technologies based on employing green energy carriers, such as hydrogen, is becoming high in demand, especially in the automotive sector, as a result of the challenges associated with sustainable mobility. In the present review, a detailed overview of the entire hydrogen supply chain is proposed, spanning from its production to storage and final use in cars. Notably, the main focus is on Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC) as the fuel-cell type most typically used in fuel cell electric vehicles. The analysis also includes a cost assessment of the various systems involved; specifically, the materials commonly employed to manufacture fuel cells, stacks, and hydrogen storage systems are considered, emphasizing the strengths and weaknesses of the selected strategies, together with assessing the solutions to current problems. Moreover, as a sought-after parallelism, a comparison is also proposed and discussed between traditional diesel or gasoline c... [more]
6060. LAPSE:2023.30851
Adaptive Band-Pass Filter and VMD-Esprit Based Multi-Mode Monitoring Method for Broadband Electromagnetic Oscillation in “Double High” Power Systems
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: “double high” power system, adaptive band-pass filtering, broadband electromagnetic oscillation, multi-mode monitoring, VMD-Esprit
With the development of new power systems with high proportions of renewable energy and high proportions of power electronics equipment, the influence of broadband electromagnetic oscillations in power systems is becoming more and more significant. In order to better grasp the dynamic characteristics of broadband oscillations, a new adaptive band-pass filter and VMD-Esprit based multi-modal monitoring method is proposed for broadband electromagnetic oscillation in “double high” power systems. First, based on the mode frequency and amplitude information provided by FFT mode detection, the proposed adaptive band-pass filter adaptively sets the center frequency, bandwidth, and other parameters and extracts or separates the voltage/current signal in each frequency band. Second, the filtered signals are corrected and compensated, and then the VMD modal decomposition of each frequency band signal is combined with Esprit for parameter identification so as to obtain the waveform and parameter... [more]
6061. LAPSE:2023.30850
Investigation on High-Viscosity Chemical Waste Liquid Atomizer Based on VOF-DPM
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: AMR, atomizer, DPM, high-viscosity, VOF
The viscosity of adiponitrile waste liquid is as high as 1000 cp. It is challenging to spray and atomize the waste liquid normally. Based on the coaxial three-channel pneumatic atomizer, a two-stage supersonic steam atomizer is proposed in this paper, and the atomization process is simulated by Fluent software. Compared with the traditional atomization simulation method, the Volume-of-Fluid to Discrete-Phase-Model (VOF-DPM) bi-directional coupling model and Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) technology can save mesh and improve the computational efficiency. The atomization processes of primary breakup and secondary breakup are entirely captured and analyzed. The results show that the Sauter Mean Diameter (SMD) is about 116−180 μm, the SMD decreases with the increase of steam inlet absolute pressure, and the atomization quality can meet the combustion requirements. This study can be used for the performance optimization of the high-viscosity liquid atomizers in the chemical and aerospace in... [more]
6062. LAPSE:2023.30849
The Double Lanes Cell Transmission Model of Mixed Traffic Flow in Urban Intelligent Network
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: cell transmission model, lane-changing judgment mechanism, mixed-traffic flow fundamental diagram, the random utility theory, vehicle driving characteristics
The connected and autonomous vehicle (CAV) is promised to ease congestion in the future with the rapid development of related technologies in recent years. To explore the characteristics of mixed-traffic flow and the dynamic transmission mechanism, this paper firstly detailed the car-following model of different vehicle types, establishing the fundamental diagram of the mixed-traffic flow through considering the different penetration rates and fleet size of CAV. Secondly, this paper constructed the lane-changing judgment mechanism based on the random utility theory. Finally, the paper proposed a lane-level dynamic cell transmission process, combined with a lane-changing strategy and cell transmission model. The effectiveness and feasibility of the model are verified using simulation analysis. This model makes a systematic, theoretical analysis from the perspective of the internal operation mechanism of traffic flow, and the lane-level traffic strategy provides a theoretical basis for b... [more]
6063. LAPSE:2023.30848
A Critical Review on the Status and Progress of Microalgae Cultivation in Outdoor Photobioreactors Conducted over 35 Years (1986−2021)
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: cultivation strategy, environmental impact, growth factors, microalgae, outdoor cultivation, photobioreactor (PBR), temperature control
Microalgae, a renewable bio-resource, are considered a potential value-added commodity and a tool to combat climate change. Microalgal research has received worldwide attention recently. Different perspectives have been explored, but cultivation in outdoor photobioreactors (PBRs) is still a less explored field. This review summarizes the studies conducted on the microalgae cultivated in outdoor PBRs only. The locations, algal strains, PBRs, and cultivation media used in these studies were identified and tabulated. Different aspects of outdoor algal cultivation in PBRs, such as temperature control, light intensity control, photosynthetic efficiency (PE), the outdoor adaptation of strains, PBR designs, and algal growth and biochemical composition variation from the weather, were studied and reviewed. A brief review of downstream processes and environmental and economic impacts was also conducted. This review summarizes what has been carried out in this field so far and will help research... [more]
6064. LAPSE:2023.30847
Design and Analysis of the Inlet Valve for the CFETR Torus Cryopump
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: CFETR, finite element analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, torus cryopump
The China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR), a superconducting magnetic confinement tokamak fusion reactor, will develop a high-performance torus cryopump to pump torus plasma exhaust gas. The inlet valve is one of the key components of the cryopump, and it is used to isolate the cryopump from the plasma for regeneration, to control the pumping speed of the cryopump, and to operate as a pressure relief valve in case of a failure, such as the cryopipe breaking inside the cryopump chamber. This paper presents a novel inlet valve. Ensuring that the design of the inlet valve meets the above requirements will be a challenge. In order to verify the reliability of the inlet valve, its critical components are analyzed and optimized by the Finite Element Method. The effect of the stroke of the inlet valve on pumping performance is then estimated by the Monte Carlo Method, and the pressure profile in the whole flow field is studied to predict the cryopump’s behavior. Finally, the seismic c... [more]
6065. LAPSE:2023.30846
Performance Study on an Electrocaloric Heat Pump Based on Ga-Based Liquid Metal
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: COMSOL Multiphysics, electrocaloric heat pump, heat pump performance, liquid metal, temperature span
A solid-state heat pump using the electrocaloric effect (ECE) provides a new idea for the future development of heat pumps. However, most of the electrocaloric (EC) heat pumps presented in the literature are low in efficiency and use at least one moving part, which significantly reduces the reliability of the heat pump and adds to its complexities. In this context, combining the positive and negative ECEs, we proposed a plate-laminar non-mobile EC heat pump adopting Gallium-based liquid metal as an intermediate medium to guarantee highly efficient heat transfer. Numerical simulation in COMSOL Multiphysics has been performed to investigate the correlation between different operating parameters and the performance of the EC heat pump. Changing the temperature span only, a COP of 8.13 and a UVHP of 746.1 W·dm−3 were obtained at a temperature span of 7 K. It was also found that the UVHP increased by 28.45% and COP increased by 25.46% after adding one layer of EC material. The electric-indu... [more]
6066. LAPSE:2023.30845
Oil Price and Composite Risk Exposure within International Capital Asset Pricing Model: A Case of Saudi Arabia and Turkey
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: country risk, international CAPM, Markov-switching model, oil price risk
The aim of this study was to investigate and compare investment opportunities in the financial markets of Saudi Arabia, a net oil-exporting country, and Turkey, a net oil-importing country, in the Middle East. The international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) was extended by considering local factors proxied by country risk (CR) and oil price risk exposures of the excess returns of Saudi Arabia and Turkey. In this study, we employed the extended ICAPM in a two-state Markov-switching setting for the sample period of January 2005 to December 2018 to explore whether the risk premium is time-varying. The results suggested that systematic risk is time-varying depending on the state of the financial markets and is affected by both global and local factors. Saudi Arabia offered higher excess returns during the high-volatility regime compared to that of the World Index and enjoyed higher returns during the low-risk regime from oil price shocks. Turkey was negatively affected by oil price s... [more]
6067. LAPSE:2023.30844
Microseismic Monitoring Technology Developments and Prospects in CCUS Injection Engineering
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: CCUS injection project, domestic and foreign engineering cases, microseismic monitoring technology, observation system
CO2 geological storage projects are an essential tool for China to achieve the double carbon target of energy savings and emission reductions. In order to safely and effectively control the implementation of injection projects and monitor the dynamics of CO2 injection, multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary monitoring tools are required. Among them, microseismic monitoring is a key technology for predicting reservoir dynamics and reflecting reservoir geomechanical behavior. Such monitoring has been carried out previously for reservoirs in other countries, but experimental projects are also gradually being developed in China. In this paper, we focus on the research and analysis results of microseismic monitoring of carbon storage projects in various work areas. For different reservoir conditions, we explore combinations of the monitoring implementation methods in China, comparing the differences in each work area. We propose a joint well and ground microseismic monitoring method and a... [more]
6068. LAPSE:2023.30843
A Review of Experimental and Numerical Analyses of Solar Thermal Walls
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: nearly zero energy buildings, passive solar systems, solar air heaters, solar chimneys, solar energy, solar thermal walls
Nowadays, almost 30% of total energy consumption (130 EJ) is consumed for the operation of buildings, mainly by space heating/cooling and ventilation systems, hot water preparation systems, lighting, and other domestic appliances. To improve the energy efficiency of buildings, several countries are promoting the use of renewable energy. The most promising systems include active and passive solar installations. In passive systems, the solar energy is collected, stored, reflected, or distributed by the roof ponds, natural convective loops, and the most popular direct gain walls and thermal storage walls (known as Trombe walls). This paper reviews the experimental and numerical studies devoted to the different solutions of Trombe walls, including solar chimneys integrated on the vertical walls, classic Trombe walls, Trombe walls with incorporated phase change materials, and photovoltaic Trombe walls. The actual state of the art is presented in the context of reducing energy consumption an... [more]
6069. LAPSE:2023.30842
Application of Active Disturbance Rejection in a Bearingless Machine with Split-Winding
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: ADRC control, induction machine, radial position control
In this paper it is proposed the displacement control of a bearingless induction machine (BIM) with split winding and optimized drive structure using Active Disturbance Rejection Control (ADRC). Considering that the BIM is a multivariable, nonlinear, and time-varying system with coupled variables, advanced control techniques can be useful in order to make the system operate efficiently and with good dynamic performance. The ADRC considers the total disturbance, composed of unmodeled dynamics, nonlinearities, uncertainties, and load variations, as an extended state and estimates it in real-time through a state observer. This increases the overall robustness of the control system to disturbances of different natures. The application of the ADRC technique on the radial position control of the BIM used in this work showed that a Linear version of ADRC is not able to compensate for radial load disturbances but this drawback can be solved by the use of a nonlinear observer in the ADRC struct... [more]
6070. LAPSE:2023.30841
Recent Advances in Ball-Milling-Based Silicon Anodes for Lithium-Ion Batteries
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: ball mill, electric vehicle, electrochemistry, lithium-ion battery, Si anode
Having a high theoretical capacity density of 4200 mAh g−1, silicon has been highlighted as one of the most promising anode materials for lithium-ion batteries. Countless silicon-based materials have been proposed and reported in research articles, mostly synthesized using bottom-up methods. While the infamous volume expansion issue can be settled with the bottom-up processes, the complicated protocols and high cost leave a non-neglectable gap between laboratory-scale and mass production. The top-down ball-milling method is still favored by industrial suppliers because of its simplicity and cost-effectiveness, even with compromised electrochemical performances. This paper reviews the latest development of ball-milling-based silicon anode materials. Although the ball-milling process seems straightforward, the procedures and parameters influencing the product have hardly been discussed in research papers compared to the bottom-up ones. This paper reviews recent advances in ball-milling-b... [more]
6071. LAPSE:2023.30840
Machine Learning for Geothermal Resource Exploration in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: geothermal exploration, geothermal resource signatures, Machine Learning, play fairway analysis, Tularosa Basin
Geothermal energy is considered an essential renewable resource to generate flexible electricity. Geothermal resource assessments conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey showed that the southwestern basins in the U.S. have a significant geothermal potential for meeting domestic electricity demand. Within these southwestern basins, play fairway analysis (PFA), funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office, identified that the Tularosa Basin in New Mexico has significant geothermal potential. This short communication paper presents a machine learning (ML) methodology for curating and analyzing the PFA data from the DOE’s geothermal data repository. The proposed approach to identify potential geothermal sites in the Tularosa Basin is based on an unsupervised ML method called non-negative matrix factorization with custom k-means clustering. This methodology is available in our open-source ML framework, GeoThermalCloud (GTC). Using this GTC framework, we dis... [more]
6072. LAPSE:2023.30839
Multi-Factor Coupling Analysis and Optimization Method for High-Quality Electrical Machine Systems
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
As the global energy crisis and environmental pollution become increasingly prominent, the development of new energy resources has become a global consensus [...]
6073. LAPSE:2023.30838
Remaining-Useful-Life Prediction for Li-Ion Batteries
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: lithium-ion battery, predictive maintenance, remaining useful life
This paper aims to establish a predictive model for battery lifetime using data analysis. The procedure of model establishment is illustrated in detail, including the data pre-processing, modeling, and prediction. The characteristics of lithium-ion batteries are introduced. In this study, data analysis is performed with MATLAB, and the open-source battery data are provided by NASA. The addressed models include the decision tree, nonlinear autoregression, recurrent neural network, and long short-term memory network. In the part of model training, the root-mean-square error, integral of the squared error, and integral of the absolute error are considered for the cost functions. Based on the defined health indicator, the remaining useful life of lithium-ion batteries can be predicted. The confidence interval can be used to describe the level of confidence for each prediction. According to the test results, the long short-term memory network provides the best performance among all addresse... [more]
6074. LAPSE:2023.30837
Exploring the Driving Factors and Their Spatial Effects on Carbon Emissions in the Building Sector
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: building sector, carbon emissions, driving factors, spatial autocorrelation, spatial spillover effect
This study measured the lifecycle carbon emissions of buildings in 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020 and decomposed the drivers of carbon emissions in the materialization stage and operation stage of building, respectively, using the Stochastic Impacts with the Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model in order to investigate the drivers of carbon emissions and their spatial influence effects in the building sector. The spatial Durbin model (SDM) was used to thoroughly investigate the spatial effects of carbon emissions and their drivers in the building sector under geographic and economic distances. According to the findings, China’s building sector has a high concentration of carbon emissions in the east and a low concentration in the west. There is also a sizable spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial spillover effects in the materialization and operation stages shift in opposite directions. To help the building sector to achieve the carbon peaking a... [more]
6075. LAPSE:2023.30836
An Ultra-Short-Term PV Power Forecasting Method for Changeable Weather Based on Clustering and Signal Decomposition
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: deep learning model, hybrid models, photovoltaic power forecasting, signal decomposition, weather classification
Photovoltaic (PV) power shows different fluctuation characteristics under different weather types as well as strong randomness and uncertainty in changeable weather such as sunny to cloudy, cloudy to rain, and so on, resulting in low forecasting accuracy. For the changeable type of weather, an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting method is proposed based on affinity propagation (AP) clustering, complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with an adaptive noise algorithm (CEEMDAN), and bi-directional long and short-term memory network (BiLSTM). First, the PV power output curve of the standard clear-sky day was extracted monthly from the historical data, and the photovoltaic power was normalized according to it. Second, the changeable days were extracted from various weather types based on the AP clustering algorithm and the Euclidean distance by considering the mean and variance of the clear-sky power coefficient (CSPC). Third, the CEEMDAN algorithm was further used to dec... [more]
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