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Records Added in March 2023
Records added in March 2023
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10444. LAPSE:2023.15751
A New Design of MP-HDCCB Topology Based on Hybrid Switching Device
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: fault isolation, HVDC transmission, multiport hybrid DC circuit breaker (MP-HDCCB), thyristor
Since each branch of the multiterminal DC circuit system relies on the DC circuit breaker for breaking and fault isolation, the prohibitive cost and huge volume of the Hybrid DC Circuit Breaker (HCB) limit its development and broad application in multiterminal flexible DC systems. Multiport hybrid DC circuit breaker (MP-HDCCB) based on device and branch sharing reduces the configuration cost of the circuit breaker to a certain extent. In order to further reduce the cost of MP-HDCCB, a novel MP-HDCCB topology based on hybrid switching devices is proposed, adopting full controlled switching devices to achieve rapidity of breaking fault current, and using semi-controlled switching devices in series to withstand the transient interruption voltage (TIV), so as to reduce the construction cost and technical difficulty. In this paper, the working principle and fault breaking strategy of the topology are introduced in detail, then the parameters of the major circuit are analyzed theoretically,... [more]
10445. LAPSE:2023.15750
Can Agents Model Hydrocarbon Migration for Petroleum System Analysis? A Fast Screening Tool to De-Risk Hydrocarbon Prospects
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: agent-based modelling, conceptual modelling, decision making, Go with the Flow, hydrocarbon migration, petroleum system modelling, uncertainty quantification
Understanding subsurface hydrocarbon migration is a crucial task for petroleum geoscientists. Hydrocarbons are released from deeply buried and heated source rocks, such as shales with a high organic content. They then migrate upwards through the overlying lithologies. Some hydrocarbon becomes trapped in suitable geological structures that, over a geological timescale, produce viable hydrocarbon reservoirs. This work investigates how intelligent agent models can mimic these complex natural subsurface processes and account for geological uncertainty. Physics-based approaches are commonly used in petroleum system modelling and flow simulation software to identify migration pathways from source rocks to traps. However, the problem with these simulations is that they are computationally demanding, making them infeasible for extensive uncertainty quantification. In this work, we present a novel dynamic screening tool for secondary hydrocarbon migration that relies on agent-based modelling. I... [more]
10446. LAPSE:2023.15749
Internal Induced Voltage Modification for Current Limitation in Virtual Synchronous Machine
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: current limitation, grid-following, grid-forming, internal induced voltage, virtual synchronous machine
Virtual inertia control is a methodology to make inverter-based resources (IBR) behave like a synchronous machine. However, an IBR cannot fully emulate the response of synchronous machine because of its low-current capacity. When the inertial response of an IBR is affected by the current limitation, the synchronization of the synchronous machine simulated virtually inside the IBR controller with the other synchronous generators in the grid is affected, which may cause step-out of the simulated generator. We propose a methodology which can keep the synchronization by modifying internal induced voltage of the simulated generator to follow the system voltage change. The proposal is validated by the simulation using a nine-bus transmission system model including two synchronous generators and a large-scale IBR. The result of the generator trip simulation shows that the proposed method suppresses the phase angle variation while the current is limited, and avoids the instability regarding th... [more]
10447. LAPSE:2023.15748
Numerical Modeling of Energy Systems Based on Micro Gas Turbine: A Review
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: distributed energy system, EFMGT, humid air turbine, hybrid energy systems, MGT-ORC, micro gas turbine, numerical modeling, SOFC-MGT
In the context of the great research pulse on clean energy transition, distributed energy systems have a key role, especially in the case of integration of both renewable and traditional energy sources. The stable interest in small-scale gas turbines can further increase owing to their flexibility in both operation and fuel supply. Since their not-excellent electrical efficiency, research activities on micro gas turbine (MGT) are focused on the performance improvements that are achievable in several ways, like modifying the Brayton cycle, integrating two or more plants, using cleaner fuels. Hence, during the last decades, the growing interest in MGT-based energy systems encouraged the development of many numerical approaches aimed to provide a reliable and effective prediction of the energy systems’ behavior. Indeed, numerical modeling can help to individuate potentialities and issues of each enhanced layout or hybrid energy system, and this review aims to discuss the various layout so... [more]
10448. LAPSE:2023.15747
Numerical Study of the Erosion Process and Transport of Pulverized Coal−Air Mixture in the Mill-Duct System
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: erosion, failure, mill-duct system, pulverized coal
One of the main causes of damage to the elements of coal-fired boilers installations, leading to breakdowns and, consequently, a shutdown of the block, are erosive processes. Unfortunately, there is not much research conducted on dust erosion of the dust ducts supplying the air−dust mixture to the burners. The problem of erosion of the dust ducts supplying the pulverized coal−air mixture to the burners was presented in this paper. This study was performed for the preliminary feasibility design. The destruction of the material of the dust ducts results in a failure due to erosion, resulting in the mill being shut down from an operation, which in turn may lead to the shutdown of the power plant unit. Therefore, it is important to identify places exposed to pulverized coal erosion. In order to perform calculations, numerical modeling in the commercial program Ansys.Fluent (Ansys Fluent, Computational Fluid Dynamics, Ansys Inc., Pittsburgh, PA, USA) was used. The parameters obtained as a r... [more]
10449. LAPSE:2023.15746
Design and Implementation of the Bidirectional DC-DC Converter with Rapid Energy Conversion
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: bidirectional DC-DC converter, rapid energy conversion, smooth power transfer
The bidirectional DC-DC converters are widely used in the energy storage system (ESS) and DC distribution system. The power capacity is limited when the converter is operated with smooth power transfer. In addition, the directions of the inductor current and the capacitor voltage cannot change instantaneously. In this study, a rapid energy conversion technique for smoothing and accelerating the energy transfer under the same specification of the main components in steady state is proposed. Moreover, a bidirectional DC-DC converter with a high conversion ratio is proposed to overcome the commonly low voltage input from renewable energy sources. The operating principles of the proposed converter’s step-down and step-up modes are discussed in this study. Furthermore, to achieve rapid energy conversion, digital control is a crucial component in the converter system. A digital signal processor is used as the control platform, and a control strategy is formulated to achieve rapid energy conv... [more]
10450. LAPSE:2023.15745
Wind Speed Forecasts of a Mesoscale Ensemble for Large-Scale Wind Farms in Northern China: Downscaling Effect of Global Model Forecasts
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: diurnal variation, global forecast downscaling, mesoscale ensemble system, wind power prediction, wind speed
To facilitate wind power integration for the electric power grid operated by the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Corporation—a major electric power grid in China—a high-resolution (of 2.7 km grid intervals) mesoscale ensemble prediction system was developed that forecasts winds for 130 wind farms in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The ensemble system contains 39 forecasting members that are divided into 3 groups; each group is composed of the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) real-time four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting model (RTFDDA) with 13 physical perturbation members, but driven by the forecasts of the GFS (Global Forecast System), GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model), and GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System), respectively. The hub-height wind predictions of these three sub-ensemble groups at selected wind turbines across the region were verified against the hub-height wind measurements. The forecast performance and variations with lead ti... [more]
10451. LAPSE:2023.15744
Policy Effect on Clean Coal-Fired Power Development in China
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: clean coal-fired power, future challenges, policy driver, policy effects
The coal power policy has been influencing the development of China’s coal power industry from the aspects of quantity control, technological progress, and market-oriented reform. Meanwhile, the strategic coal power policy of the mid- and long-term future is yet to be well-designed under the carbon peak and neutrality targets. Therefore, it is necessary to have a comprehensive overview of the coal power policy during the past and give targeted prospects for policy-makers. This paper discusses the policy effect on the development and technological progress of the coal power industry by giving an overview of the policy and reform processes of the coal power industry in China in the past 20 years. The results indicate that China’s coal power policy has promoted the progress of coal power generation technology, optimized the coal power structure, accelerated the diversified investment in the power industry, and alleviated the overcapacity problem of coal power generation. After discussion,... [more]
10452. LAPSE:2023.15743
Thermal Safety Analysis of On-Site Emulsion Explosives Mixed with Waste Engine Oil
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: emulsion explosives, non-isothermal kinetics, thermal safety, waste engine oil
The study of the thermal safety of emulsion explosives mixed with waste engine oil is very important for the safety of these types of explosives used in mine blasting. In order to study the thermal safety of emulsion explosives mixed with waste engine oil, thermal safety tests were carried out using a Differential Scanning Calorimeter (DSC), non-isothermal kinetics, and the Flynn−Wall−Ozawa method. The results show that the minor particle impurities in the filtered waste engine oil are mainly combustibles; after adding different amounts of waste engine oil, the activation energy of the emulsion matrix decreases from 110.33 kJ/mol to 75.39 kJ/mol, 74.50 kJ/mol, and 82.23 kJ/mol, and the critical temperature for thermal explosion changes from 194.16 °C to 169.73 °C, 227.47 °C, and 208.78 °C. The addition of waste engine oil reduces the activation energy of emulsion explosives. The waste engine oil is negatively correlated with the activation energy and the thermal explosion reaction temp... [more]
10453. LAPSE:2023.15742
Methods and Techniques for CO2 Capture: Review of Potential Solutions and Applications in Modern Energy Technologies
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: carbon capture and storage installation, CO2 capture methods, CO2 emission level assessment indicators
The paper presents and discusses modern methods and technologies of CO2 capture (pre-combustion capture, post-combustion capture, and oxy-combustion capture) along with the principles of these methods and examples of existing and operating installations. The primary differences of the selected methods and technologies, with the possibility to apply them in new low-emission energy technologies, were presented. The following CO2 capture methods: pre-combustion, post-combustion based on chemical absorption, physical separation, membrane separation, chemical looping combustion, calcium looping process, and oxy-combustion are discussed in the paper. Large-scale carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) facilities operating and under development are summarized. In 2021, 27 commercial CCUS facilities are currently under operation with a capture capacity of up to 40 Mt of CO2 per year. If all projects are launched, the global CO2 capture potential can be more than ca. 130−150 Mt/year of ca... [more]
10454. LAPSE:2023.15741
Editorial Note from the EiC
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
The material published in this “Discussion”—and the very reason for which we decided to publish it—requires a clarification on the part of the journal Management; therefore, I advise readers to peruse this foreword before embarking in the task of studying the often polemical statements and counter-statements contained in the Seibert and Rees paper, in the Diesendorf and Fthenakis et al [...]
10455. LAPSE:2023.15740
Numerical Study of Thermochemistry and Trace Element Behavior during the Co-Combustion of Coal and Sludge in Boiler
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: co-combustion, moisture content, numerical simulation, sludge, toxic element
Sludge is one of the main pollutants from sewage treatment and contains a high content of water and organic matter. The co-combustion of sludge and coal can bring about the energy conversion of sludge. However, the high moisture content in sludge and the inorganic pollutants generated by co-combustion have adverse effects on combustion and the environment. In this work, through experimentation, it was demonstrated that co-combustion does not release obvious toxic elements or create an environmental hazard. On the basis of the TG/DTG curves, the ignition points of sludge and coal and the temperature of each group were obtained, which provided boundary conditions for a numerical simulation. Co-combustion with various mixing ratios and moisture contents was studied via the numerical simulation of a 330 MW boiler. The numerical results show that a high mixing ratio reduced the boiler temperature and created more moisture and fuel NOx. When the mixing ratio reached 40%, the boiler temperatu... [more]
10456. LAPSE:2023.15739
Study of Induction Motor Inter-Turn Fault Part I: Development of Fault Models with Distorted Flux Representation
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: fault model, fault parameter, induction motor, inter-turn fault (ITF), negative sequence current, positive sequence current
An inter-turn fault (ITF) is one of the most frequent induction motor faults; thus, many previous works have studied its model and diagnosis. However, previous works, simplifying the specific distorted flux distribution by the ITF, presented induction motor fault models and focused on the fault signal analysis for diagnoses. Consequently, these results are only adequate for the pretested motor and sensitive to fault signal distortion. This paper presents an induction motor ITF model in the stationary DQ frame, for a model-based diagnosis. Furthermore, to describe the distorted flux distribution along the air gap by the ITF, the rotor flux linkages are described in the independent DQ frame of every pole, and the mutual flux linkages among the rotor, stator, and ITF windings are specifically modeled. Hence, the proposed full model has many current states and mutual inductances to describe the high pole number motor. A simplified model is also proposed for easier usage in the diagnosis, w... [more]
10457. LAPSE:2023.15738
Enhancing Efficiency of Industrial Centrifugal Fans Using Blade Adjustment Mechanism
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: adjustable fan blade, efficiency, lightweight
The paper presents research on increasing the efficiency of industrial centrifugal fans, which are the third highest energy-consuming group of devices. This problem is related to the frequent incompatibility of the fan characteristics with the flow conditions of the installation in which they are operated, which lowers efficiency and increases energy consumption. By ensuring high efficiency of these devices, it is possible to significantly reduce the operating costs of such industrial equipment. For this purpose, a unique concept of regulating the flow parameters of centrifugal fans was developed. The scientific basis of this idea is that a relatively small change in the impeller diameter of the fan significantly affects the flow rate and the pressure rise of the fan. Therefore, the idea uses variable length of the impeller blades by dividing them into a fixed and a movable part. It enables adjustment of the length of the blades, which allows extension of the range of effective and eff... [more]
10458. LAPSE:2023.15737
Definition of a Protocol for the Experimental Monitoring of Rising Damp in Three Different Masonry Models with Tuff, Carparo, and Lecce Stone
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: building stones, capillarity, carparo, evaporation, experimental data, Lecce stone, moisture, rising damp, thermography, tuff
This work presents a new protocol for monitoring rising damp, which is applied to three masonry models made of tuff, carparo, and Lecce stone. First, the physical characteristics of each stone were derived in the laboratory, which included porosity, imbibition, drying index, permeability, capillarity, and sorptivity. In this case, the protocol provided three columns, one for each material, consisting of five blocks. A layer of cotton tissue was interposed between columned blocks to simulate the hygroscopic behavior of a mortar, allowing a quick disassembly and reassembly of the multiblock columns for a quick weighing. The bottoms of the columns were immersed in water to a level of about three centimeters, providing a constant replenishment for the phenomena of evaporation and rising in the stone. The maximum height achieved by the rising damp depends on the characteristics of the building materials, i.e., the amount and size of pores, pore connectivity, etc. Since these materials have... [more]
10459. LAPSE:2023.15736
An Adaptive Building Skin Concept Resulting from a New Bioinspiration Process: Design, Prototyping, and Characterization
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: adaptive skin, bioinspiration, biological models, parametric, product design, regulation factors
Building envelopes can manage light, heat gains or losses, and ventilation and, as such, play a key role in the overall building performance. Research has been focusing on increasing their efficiency by proposing dynamic and adaptive systems, meaning that they evolve to best meet the internal and external varying conditions. Living organisms are relevant examples of adaptability as they have evolved, facing extreme conditions while maintaining stable internal conditions for survival. From a framework based on the inspiration of living envelopes such as animal constructions or biological skins, the concept of an adaptive envelope inspired by the Morpho butterfly was proposed. The system can manage heat, air, and light transfers going through the building and includes adaptive elements with absorption coefficients varying with temperature. This paper presents the developed framework that led to the final concept as well as the concept implementation and assessment. A prototype for heat a... [more]
10460. LAPSE:2023.15735
Using Wood-Based Waste from Grapevine Cultivation for Energy Purposes
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: biowaste managment, emission factors, energy properties, grapevine shoots, LHV
This paper presents the possibility of the energetic utilization of biowaste in the form of lignified one-year shoots from the cultivation of grapevines of the Seyval Blanc (WSBL), Solaris (WSOL), Regent (WREG) and Rondo (WRON) varieties, grown in temperate climate zones. A technical analysis, an elemental analysis and the determination of the highest heat value and lowest heat value were performed to define the quality parameters of waste as fuel. In addition, the emission factors of SO2, NOx, CO, CO2 and dust were estimated to demonstrate the impact of potential biowaste from combustion. Based on the stoichiometric equations, the exhaust gas composition, the theoretical oxygen demand and the total flue gas volume were evaluated. The study showed that the material with the highest energy potential was WREG (LHV-16.19 MJ·kg−1), with an ash content of 3.68%, while the lowest potential was found for WRON (LHV-15.88 MJ·kg−1), with an ash content of 4.21%. The study showed that the use of... [more]
10461. LAPSE:2023.15734
Assessment of Waterfront Office Redevelopment Plan on Optimal Building Arrangements with Rooftop Photovoltaics: A Case Study for Shinagawa, Tokyo
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: building, CO2 emission, electricity demand, photovoltaics, Technoeconomic Analysis, urban decarbonization
Designing waterfront redevelopment generally focuses on attractiveness, leisure, and beauty, resulting in various types of building and block shapes with limited considerations on environmental aspects. However, increasing climate change impacts necessitate these buildings to be sustainable, resilient, and zero CO2 emissions. By producing five scenarios (plus existing buildings) with constant floor areas, we investigated how buildings and district forms with building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) affect energy consumption and production, self-sufficiency, CO2 emission, and energy costs in the context of waterfront redevelopment in Tokyo. From estimated hourly electricity demands of the buildings, techno-economic analyses were conducted for rooftop PV systems for 2018 and 2030 with declining costs of rooftop PV systems. We found that environmental building designs with rooftop PV system are increasingly economical in Tokyo with CO2 emission reduction of 2−9% that depends on rooftop si... [more]
10462. LAPSE:2023.15733
A Self-Validating Method via the Unification of Multiple Models for Consistent Parameter Identification in PEM Fuel Cells
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: macro-homogeneous model, semi-empirical model, SP-RCD model, UMDAG
Mathematical models are used for simulating the electrochemical phenomena of proton-exchange-membrane (PEM) fuel cells. They differ in the scale, modeling variables, precision in specific features, and the required parameters. Often, the input parameters are not measurable and need to be estimated by minimizing the error between the model output and experimental data; however, the estimated parameters could differ from one model to another, hence provoking uncertainty about the correct values and the model’s suitability for simulating the real phenomenon. To address these issues, we introduced a self-validating methodology using three different mathematical models: The first set of parameters was estimated with a semi-empirical (SE) model; then, it was used for computing several points of the polarization curve (PC). The SE parameters and points were used to estimate a second set of parameters and to compute a single point of the PC with a macro-homogeneous (MH) model. The parameters a... [more]
10463. LAPSE:2023.15732
Research on Hybrid Solar Photovoltaic/Thermal (PV/T) System
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Modern-day buildings have become the third-largest consumer of energy, after industry and agriculture, and energy consumption in buildings contributes up to 40% of the total energy use in developed countries [...]
10464. LAPSE:2023.15731
How Environmental Regulation, Digital Development and Technological Innovation Affect China’s Green Economy Performance: Evidence from Dynamic Thresholds and System GMM Panel Data Approaches
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: digital development, dynamic panel threshold model, environmental regulations, green economic performance, system GMM
Based on the background of China’s “carbon neutral” policy and the booming digitalization, how does environmental regulation affect green economy performance? The existing literature has studied the impact of energy consumption on green economic performance. However, the literature has ignored the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on China’s green economy performance. In this regard, this research uses the non-radial distance function (NDDF) to calculate the green economic performance of China’s prefecture-level cities, and uses the dynamic panel threshold model and the systematic GMM method to study the nonlinear impacts and mechanisms of environmental regulation, digital development, technological innovation, and industrial structure upgrade on green economic performance. The panel data set contains 228 Chinese cities from 2003 to 2019. The following findings are established: first, after adding carbon dioxide emissions to China’s green economy performance, the environmental perform... [more]
10465. LAPSE:2023.15730
Research on the Application Performance of the Helmholtz High-Efficiency Wave-Elimination Chamber in Gas Wave Tubes
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: gas wave tube, Helmholtz chamber, refrigeration efficiency, wave-eliminating chamber
A gas wave refrigerator is a device that uses gas pressure to expand and refrigerate; the moving shock wave in the gas wave tube is the key to cooling. If the shock wave is reflected to the open mouth of the gas wave tube, it will heat the expanded refrigeration gas at the open end, severely reducing the refrigeration efficiency. In order to reduce this effect, a Helmholtz middle wave chamber-type gas wave tube is presented here. This study describes the performance of this structure in the gas wave refrigeration process. The refrigeration performance of the structure’s gas wave tube use was evaluated experimentally and numerically using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The function of the middle wave elimination chamber was studied and explained: the chamber turns the reflected shock wave back to the end section of the tube and converts part of the incoming shock wave to an expansion wave, which may counteract the reflected shock wave by escaping from wave elimination chamber. The... [more]
10466. LAPSE:2023.15729
The Vision of Self-Management in Cognitive Organic Power Distribution Systems
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: cognitive energy systems, distribution management system, home energy management system, organic computing, power system, self-configuration, self-healing, self-optimisation, self-organisation
Due to the ongoing trend towards a decarbonisation of energy use, the power system is expected to become the backbone of all energy sectors and thus the fundamental critical infrastructure. High penetration with distributed energy resources demands the coordination of a large number of prosumers, partly controlled by home energy management systems (HEMS), to be designed in such a way that the power system’s operational limits are not violated. On the grid level, distribution management systems (DMS) seek to keep the power system in the normal operational state. On the prosumer level, distributed HEMS optimise the internal power flows by setpoint specification of batteries, photovoltaic generators, or flexible loads. The vision of the ODiS (Organic Distribution System) initiative is to develop an architecture to operate a distribution grid reliably, with high resiliency, and fully autonomously by developing “organic” HEMS and DMS which possess multiple self-x capabilities, collectively... [more]
10467. LAPSE:2023.15728
Contribution of Road Transport to the Attainment of Ghana’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) through Biofuel Integration
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: arable land requirement, biofuel integration, energy demand model, Ghana road transport, greenhouse gas emissions
Since the Paris Agreement in COP21, many countries around the world, including Ghana and Thailand, have established a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with first update recently in COP26. With Ghana’s ongoing effort at COP26 to change its baseline to 2019, this study established a detailed Ghana vehicle ownership model with necessary transport parameters to construct an energy demand model to provide insight for reducing GHG emission contributions from road transport through biofuel (both bioethanol and biodiesel) potential by recourse to a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP), with two scenarios of development from Thailand’s best practice for policy recommendation, which are alternative (ALT), with up to E20/B20, and extreme (EXT), with up to E85/B50, for new vehicles. In each case, energy demand and GHG emissions were analyzed from detailed data on Ghana’s transport sector to show potential benefit from biofuel usages. From Ghana’s... [more]
10468. LAPSE:2023.15727
Using the Data of Geocryological Monitoring and Geocryological Forecast for Risk Assessment and Adaptation to Climate Change
March 2, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: climate change adaptation, geohazards, infrastructure stability, permafrost dynamics, permafrost state
Permafrost monitoring should be organized in different ways within undisturbed landscapes and in areas with technogenic impacts. The state and dynamics of permafrost are described by special indicators. It helps to characterize seasonal and long-term tendencies and link them with permafrost hazards estimation. The risk is determined by the hazard probability and the vulnerability of infrastructure elements. The hazard does not have integral indicators, but is determined by separate spatial and temporal characteristics. The spatial characteristics include the ground’s physical and cryolithological features that are linked with the history of the permafrost. The temporal characteristics are associated with the future evolution of the climate and anthropogenic pressures. The geocryological monitoring content and geocryological forecasting are interdependent and should be implemented together. The adaptation recommendations are based on the analytical algorithms and use the results of perm... [more]
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