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Records with Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
1375. LAPSE:2023.13478
A Novel Data-Driven Estimation Method for State-of-Charge Estimation of Li-Ion Batteries
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: data-driven, fuzzy neural network, Li-ion batteries, state of charge
With the increasing proportion of Li-ion batteries in energy structures, studies on the estimation of the state of charge (SOC) of Li-ion batteries, which can effectively ensure the safety and stability of Li-ion batteries, have gained much attention. In this paper, a new data-driven method named the probabilistic threshold compensation fuzzy neural network (PTCFNN) is proposed to estimate the SOC of Li-ion batteries. Compared with other traditional methods that need to build complex battery models, the PTCFNN only needs data learning to obtain nonlinear mapping relationships inside Li-ion batteries. In order to avoid the local optimal value problem of traditional BP neural networks and the fixed reasoning mechanism of traditional fuzzy neural networks, the PTCFNN combines the advantages of a probabilistic fuzzy neural network and a compensation fuzzy neural network so as to improve the learning convergence speed and optimize the fuzzy reasoning mechanism. Finally, in order to verify t... [more]
1376. LAPSE:2023.13477
Experimental and Numerical Study on the Effect of Hydrogen Addition on Laminar Burning Velocity of Ethanol−Air Mixtures
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
To understand the effect of hydrogen addition on the laminar burning velocity (LBV) of ethanol−air mixtures, experiments were conducted in a constant volume combustion chamber with the high-speed schlieren photography technique. The experiments were carried out under the equivalence ratios (ERs) of 0.7−1.4, an initial temperature of 400 K, an initial pressure of 0.1 MPa, and hydrogen fractions of 30% and 90% by volume, respectively. The effects of ER, initial temperature, initial pressure, and hydrogen fractions on the LBV were investigated. Moreover, adiabatic flame temperature (AFT), heat release rate (HRR), flow rate sensitivity analysis, and ROP (rate of production) analysis were also performed. Results showed that LBV increased with increasing hydrogen addition and temperature but decreased with increasing pressure. The hydrogen addition significantly increased the HRR of ethanol−hydrogen−air flames. The sensitivity analysis showed that R5 (O2 + H = O + OH) significantly influence... [more]
1377. LAPSE:2023.13474
Displacement-Constrained Neural Network Control of Maglev Trains Based on a Multi-Mass-Point Model
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: maglev train, multi-mass points, radial-based neural network, restricted control
To address the safety displacement-constrained control problem of maglev trains during operation, this study applied the radial-based neural network control displacement-constrained method to maglev trains based on the multi-mass-point model, and strictly limited the output of maglev train displacement and speed values to keep the overshoot within a given range. Firstly, the dynamics and kinematics of the maglev train were modeled from the perspective of multi-mass modeling. Secondly, the basic structure of the radial-based neural network was determined according to the displacement-limited constraints of the maglev train during operation, and the stability was proven by applying the control rate and output-limited priming according to the limitations. Finally, based on the displacement-limited operation control of maglev trains, the system of the radial-based neural network was simulated. The simulation results show that this method can make the displacement and velocity signals of th... [more]
1378. LAPSE:2023.13468
Forecasting Daily Electricity Consumption in Thailand Using Regression, Artificial Neural Network, Support Vector Machine, and Hybrid Models
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: artificial neural network, daily electricity consumption, ensemble model, forecasting, hybrid model, multiple linear regression, sequential grid search, support vector machine
This article involves forecasting daily electricity consumption in Thailand. Electricity consumption data are provided by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the leading power utility state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. Five forecasting techniques, including multiple linear regression, artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine, hybrid models, and ensemble models, are implemented. The article proposes a hyperparameter tuning technique, called sequential grid search, which is based on the widely used grid search, for ANN and hybrid models. Auxiliary variables and indicator variables that can improve the models’ forecasting performance are included. From the computational experiment, the hybrid model of a multiple regression model to forecast the expected daily consumption and ANNs from the sequential grid search to forecast the error term, along with additional indicator variables for some national holidays, provides the best mean absolution percent... [more]
1379. LAPSE:2023.13455
Optimal Data Reduction of Training Data in Machine Learning-Based Modelling: A Multidimensional Bin Packing Approach
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Big Data, discretization, histogram, neural network, numerosity reduction, regression, training data
In these days, when complex, IT-controlled systems have found their way into many areas, models and the data on which they are based are playing an increasingly important role. Due to the constantly growing possibilities of collecting data through sensor technology, extensive data sets are created that need to be mastered. In concrete terms, this means extracting the information required for a specific problem from the data in a high quality. For example, in the field of condition monitoring, this includes relevant system states. Especially in the application field of machine learning, the quality of the data is of significant importance. Here, different methods already exist to reduce the size of data sets without reducing the information value. In this paper, the multidimensional binned reduction (MdBR) method is presented as an approach that has a much lower complexity in comparison on the one hand and deals with regression, instead of classification as most other approaches do, on... [more]
1380. LAPSE:2023.13449
Velocity Sensor Fault-Tolerant Controller for Induction Machine Using Intelligent Voting Algorithm
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: back-stepping controller, extended kalman filter, fault-tolerant control, fuzzy logic, induction machine, mechanical sensor failure, neural networks, performance, reliability, sensorless control, sliding mode observer, voting algorithms
Nowadays, induction machines (IMs) are widely used in industrial and transportation applications (electric or hybrid ground vehicle or aerospace actuators) thanks to their significant advantages in comparison to other technologies. Indeed, there is a large demand for IMs because of their reliability, robustness, and cost-effectiveness. The objective of this paper is to improve the reliability and performance of the three-phase induction machine in case of mechanical sensor failure. Moreover, this paper will discuss the development and proposal of a fault-tolerant controller (FTC), based on the combination of a vector controller, two virtual sensors (an extended Kalman filter, or EKF, and a sliding mode observer, or SMO) and a neural voting algorithm. In this approach, the vector controller is based on a new structure of a back-stepping sliding mode controller, which incorporates a double integral sliding surface to improve the performance of the induction machine in faulty operation mo... [more]
1381. LAPSE:2023.13432
A Novel Type of Wave Energy Converter with Five Degrees of Freedom and Preliminary Investigations on Power-Generating Capacity
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: array, five degrees of freedom, semi-analytical method, wave energy converter
In order to further improve the power-generating capacity of the wave energy converter (WEC) of oscillating buoy type, this paper puts forward a novel type where the WEC can move and extract power in five degrees of freedom. We make a detailed hydrodynamic analysis of such WECs. Each buoy is modeled as a floating truncated cylinder with five degrees of freedom: surge, sway, heave, roll, and pitch, and there are relative motions among buoys in the array. Linear power take-off (PTO) characteristics are considered for simplicity. Under the linear wave theory, a semi-analytical method based on the eigenfunction expansion and Graf’s addition theorem for Bessel functions is proposed to analyze the hydrodynamic interactions among the WEC array under the action of incident waves, and the amplitude response and power extraction of the WEC array are then solved. After verifying the accuracy of hydrodynamic analysis and calculation, we make preliminary case studies, successively investigating the... [more]
1382. LAPSE:2023.13403
Deep Neural Network Prediction of Mechanical Drilling Speed
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: deep neural network, Liushagang formation, ROP prediction, Wushi 17-2 oilfield
Rate of penetration (ROP) prediction is critical for the optimization of drilling parameters and ROP improvement during drilling. However, it is still challenging to accurately predict ROP based on traditional empirical formula methods. This is usually the case for the development of the Wushi 17-2 oilfield block in the South China Sea. The Liushagang Formation is complex and the ROP is relatively low and difficult to increase. Ordinary data-driven ROP prediction models are not applicable because they do not take into account the complexity of formation conditions. In this work, we characterize the formation with acoustic transit time and build a data-driven ROP prediction model based on a deep neural network approach. By using the exploratory well data of the Wushi 17-2 oilfield for training and testing, the matching degree of the established model with the real data can reach 82%. In addition, we have developed a drilling parameter optimization process based on the ROP prediction mod... [more]
1383. LAPSE:2023.13400
A New Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: electrical load forecasting, Machine Learning, recurrent fuzzy neural network, time series
In this study, we present a new approach for load forecasting (LF) using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) for Kermanshah City. Imagine if there is a need for electricity in a region in the coming years, we will have to build a power plant or reinforce transmission lines, so this will be resolved if accurate forecasts are made at the right time. Furthermore, suppose that by building distributed generation plants, and predicting future consumption, we can conclude that production will be more than consumption, so we will seek to export energy to other countries and make decisions on this. In this paper, a novel combination of neural networks (NNs) and type-2 fuzzy systems (T2FSs) is used for load forecasting. Adding feedback to the fuzzy neural network can also benefit from past moments. This feedback structure is called a recurrent fuzzy neural network. In this paper, Kermanshah urban electrical load data is used. The simulation results prove the efficiency of this method for for... [more]
1384. LAPSE:2023.13345
Information System for Diagnosing the Condition of the Complex Structures Based on Neural Networks
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: diagnosing, information system, lining, neural network, software, steel ladle
In this paper, we describe the relevance of diagnosing the lining condition of steel ladles in metallurgical facilities. Accidents with steel ladles lead to losses and different types of damage in iron and steel works. We developed an algorithm for recognizing thermograms of steel ladles to identify burnout zones in the lining based on the technology and design of neural networks. A diagnostic system structure for automated evaluating of the technical conditions of steel ladles without taking them out of service has been developed and described.
1385. LAPSE:2023.13343
Numerical Investigations of Combustion—An Overview
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
With the recent advancements in computational capacities and the widespread applications of machine learning in engineering problems, the role of numerical methods has been becoming more and more important to improve existing models or develop new models that can help researchers to better understand the underlying physics of combustion, their interaction with other physical phenomena such as turbulence, and their impacts on the performance of the related applications at both fundamental and practical levels [...]
1386. LAPSE:2023.13326
Design of Intelligent Solar PV Power Generation Forecasting Mechanism Combined with Weather Information under Lack of Real-Time Power Generation Data
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: data fitting, deep neural network (DNN), long short-term memory neural network (LSTM), solar photovoltaic (PV), solar PV power generation forecast
In order to reduce the cost of data transmission, the meter data management system (MDMS) of the power operator usually delays time to obtain the power generation information of a solar photovoltaic (PV) power generation system. Although this approach solves the problem of data transmission cost, it brings more challenges to the solar PV power generation forecast. Because power operators usually need real-time solar PV power generation as a basis for the power dispatch, but considering the cost of communication, they cannot always provide corresponding historical power generation data in real time. In this study, an intelligent solar PV power generation forecasting mechanism combined with weather information is designed to cope with the issue of the absence of real-time power generation data. Firstly, the Pearson correlation coefficient analysis is used to find major factors with a high correlation in relation to solar PV power generation to reduce the computational burden of data fitt... [more]
1387. LAPSE:2023.13322
Design of a Non-Linear Observer for SOC of Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Neural Network
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: electrochemical impedance model, fraction order, lithium-ion batteries, non-linear observer based on RBF neural network, state of charge
This paper presents a method for use in estimating the state of charge (SOC) of lithium-ion batteries which is based on an electrochemical impedance equivalent circuit model with a controlled source. Considering that the open-circuit voltage of a battery varies with the SOC, an equivalent circuit model with a controlled source is proposed which the voltage source and current source interact with each other. On this basis, the radial basis function (RBF) neural network is adopted to estimate the uncertainty in the battery model online, and a non-linear observer based on the radial basis function of the RBF neural network is designed to estimate the SOC of batteries. It is proved that the SOC estimation error is ultimately bounded by Lyapunov stability analysis, and the error bound can be arbitrarily small. The high accuracy and validity of the non-linear observer based on the RBF neural network in SOC estimation are verified with experimental simulation results. The SOC estimation resul... [more]
1388. LAPSE:2023.13300
Experimental and Numerical Research on Temperature Evolution during the Fast-Filling Process of a Type III Hydrogen Tank
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: fast filling, HFCV, length of the injector, temperature distribution and evolution, thermal stratification
The temperature rises hydrogen tanks during the fast-filling process could threaten the safety of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. In this paper, a 2D axisymmetric model of a type III hydrogen for the bus was built to investigate the temperature evolution during the fast-filling process. A test rig was carried out to validate the numerical model with air. It was found significant temperature rise occurred during the filling process, despite the temperature of the filling air being cooled down due to the throttling effect. After verification, the 2D model of the hydrogen tank was employed to study the temperature distribution and evolution of hydrogen during the fast-filling process. Thermal stratification was observed along the axial direction of the tank. Then, the effects of filling parameters were examined, and a formula was fitted to predict the final temperature based on the simulated results. At last, an effort was paid on trying the improve the temperature distribution by increas... [more]
1389. LAPSE:2023.13287
Investigation and Stability Assessment of Three Sill Pillar Recovery Schemes in a Hard Rock Mine
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: burst potential index (BPI), ground settlement, hard rock mine, sill pillar recovery, tangential stress criteria, upper bench level
In Canada, many mines have adopted the sublevel stoping method, such a blasthole stoping (BHS), to extract steeply deposited minerals. Sill pillars are usually kept in place in this mining method to support the weight of the overburden in underground mining. To prolong the mine’s life, sill pillars will be recovered, and sill pillar recovery could cause failures, fatality, and equipment loss in the stopes. In this paper, three sill pillar recovery schemes—SBS, SS1, and SS2—were proposed and conducted to assess the feasibility of recovering two sill pillars in a hard rock mine by developing a full-sized three-dimensional (3D) analysis model employing the finite element method (FEM). The numerical model was calibrated by comparing the model computed ground settlement with the in situ monitored ground settlement data. The rockburst tendency of the stope accesses caused by the sill pillar recovery was assessed by employing the tangential stress (Ts) criterion and burst potential index (BPI... [more]
1390. LAPSE:2023.13248
Automatic Recognition of Faults in Mining Areas Based on Convolutional Neural Network
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: convolutional neural network, fault interpretation, model parameters, training set
Tectonic interpretation is critical to a coal mine’s safe production, and fault interpretation is an essential component of seismic tectonic interpretation. With the increasing necessity for accuracy in fault interpretation in coal mines, it is increasingly challenging to achieve greater accuracy only through traditional fault interpretation. The convolutional neural network (CNN) is a machine learning method established in recent years and it has been widely applied in coal mine fault interpretation because of its powerful feature-learning and classification capabilities. To improve the accuracy and efficiency of fault interpretation in coal mines, an automatic seismic fault identification method based on the convolutional neural network has been developed. Taking a mining area in eastern Yunnan province as an example, the CNN model realized automatic identification of faults with eight seismic attributes as feature inputs, and the model-training parameters were optimized and compared... [more]
1391. LAPSE:2023.13201
Improving the Physical, Mechanical and Energetic Characteristics of Pine Sawdust by the Addition of up to 40% Agave durangensis Gentry Pellets
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Agave durangensis, pellets, physical and energetic properties, Pinus spp.
Gentry biomass, as a residue from the mezcal production process, may be an interesting bioenergy alternative; however, its high ash content limits its application. In this study, pellets were generated with agave fiber mixed with Pinus species sawdust in the following six proportions (%): 100−0 (control), 80−20, 60−40, 40−60, 20−80 and 0−100 (control). The physical, chemical and energetic properties of the pellets were evaluated according to the UNE-EN ISO 17225-6, UNE EN ISO 17827-2, UNE-EN ISO 17828, UNE-EN ISO 18122, UNE-EN ISO 18123, UNE-EN ISO 18125, and UNE-EN ISO 18134-1 standards. The results showed significant statistical differences (p < 0.05) among the treatments tested. The percentage of volatile material and fixed carbon ranged from 86.53 to 89.96% and 4.17 to 8.16%, respectively; the ash content ranged from 0.27 to 10.06%, and the calorific value ranged from 17.33 to 18.03 MJ/kg. Bulk density ranged from 725.76 to 737.37 kg/m3 and the impact-strength index was in the r... [more]
1392. LAPSE:2023.13200
A Novel Phase Difference Measurement Method for Coriolis Mass Flowmeter Based on Correlation Theory
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: adaptive notch filter, Coriolis mass flowmeter, correlation method, Hilbert transformation, phase difference
Aiming at the poor precision problem in phase difference measurements with unknown frequencies in engineering practice, a new phase difference measurement method is proposed for Coriolis mass flowmeter based on correlation theories. Firstly, the signal frequency was estimated by using an adaptive notch filter, which was applied to filter the waves and determined the integer period of the sampling signals, and the non-integer period sampling signals needed to be extended. Then, the Hilbert transformation was conducted relative to the extended signals, and the correlation functions of these extended signals with the transformed signals can be computed. Finally, the formula of phase difference can be obtained by utilizing the sinusoidal function. Compared to traditional methods, such as the correlation method, the Hilbert transformation method, and sliding Goertzel algorithm, the proposed method is suitable for both integer period and non-integer period sampling signals, and its accuracy,... [more]
1393. LAPSE:2023.13195
High Activity Earthquake Swarm Event Monitoring and Impact Analysis on Underground High Energy Physics Research Facilities
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: condition monitoring, earthquake swarm, ground motion, LHC, monitoring systems, seismic station
A seismic swarm is a series of earthquakes that occur in a small area over a short period of time. A sequence of earthquakes of this magnitude is unusual in Switzerland, and it is impossible to anticipate how it may unfold in the future.The seismic activity of such an event usually fades after a few days or weeks. Significantly greater earthquakes are likely to occur during the next several days, with up to a chance of 5 to 10%. For these reasons, the underground research facilities need tools to provide data on the impact of these events on their experiments. The paper presents the techniques implemented at The European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) to allow the tracking and monitoring of these unusual events. Additionally, the real effect of such an unusual event is presented together with the statistical approach to monitoring and effect evaluation. Considering the collision energy of the beams at 14 TeV, the energy stored in the magnets at 10 GJ (2400 kg of TNT), and the... [more]
1394. LAPSE:2023.13187
Impact and Potential of Sustainable Development Goals in Dimension of the Technological Revolution Industry 4.0 within the Analysis of Industrial Enterprises
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: industrial enterprises, Industry 4.0 innovation, Industry 5.0, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, statistical methods, sustainable development goals, sustainable technologies
Sustainable technologies, including clean energy in manufacturing and green and reverse logistics, generate conditions for industry development and future growth with the implementation of Industry 4.0 technologies and innovations in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). The objective of the article is to identify and analyse the potential of sustainable technologies in synergy with Industry 4.0 innovations and renewable energy initiatives in manufacturing and logistics in the context of SDGs. Qualitative analysis was performed on 105 enterprises of various business sizes, in several regions of Slovakia, within various industry sectors, and within geographical coverage. Based on the summarised results, we can state that more than 82% of surveyed enterprises implement the SDGs. Currently, more than 70% of enterprises prefer environmental aspects in business management. Based on the results, we find a significant relationship between the environmental management of the ent... [more]
1395. LAPSE:2023.13149
Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the CEEMDAN-Sample Entropy-BPNN-Transformer
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: BPNN, CEEMDAN, load forecasting, sample entropy, transformer
Aiming at the problem that power load data are stochastic and that it is difficult to obtain accurate forecasting results by a single algorithm, in this paper, a combined forecasting method for short-term power load was proposed based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN)-sample entropy (SE), the BP neural network (BPNN), and the Transformer model. Firstly, the power load data were decomposed into several power load subsequences with obvious complexity differences by using the CEEMDAN-SE. Then, BPNN and Transformer model were used to forecast the subsequences with low complexity and the subsequences with high complexity, respectively. Finally, the forecasting results of each subsequence were superimposed to obtain the final forecasting result. The simulation was taken from our proposed model and six forecasting models by using the load dataset from a certain area of Spain. The results showed that the MAPE of our proposed CEEMDAN-SE-BPNN-Tra... [more]
1396. LAPSE:2023.13127
ReNFuzz-LF: A Recurrent Neurofuzzy System for Short-Term Load Forecasting
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: electric load forecasting, internal feedback, neurofuzzy model, recurrent neural network
A neurofuzzy system is proposed for short-term electric load forecasting. The fuzzy rule base of ReNFuzz-LF consists of rules with dynamic consequent parts that are small-scale recurrent neural networks with one hidden layer, whose neurons have local output feedback. The particular representation maintains the local learning nature of the typical static fuzzy model, since the dynamic consequent parts of the fuzzy rules can be considered as subsystems operating at the subspaces defined by the fuzzy premise parts, and they are interconnected through the defuzzification part. The Greek power system is examined, and hourly based predictions are extracted for the whole year. The recurrent nature of the forecaster leads to the use of a minimal set of inputs, since the temporal relations of the electric load time-series are identified without any prior knowledge of the appropriate past load values being necessary. An extensive simulation analysis is conducted, and the forecaster’s performance... [more]
1397. LAPSE:2023.13114
Capital Structure, Corporate Governance, Equity Ownership and Their Impact on Firms’ Profitability and Effectiveness in the Energy Sector
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: capital structure, capital structure theories, corporate governance, energy sector, equity ownership, firm performance, profitability, regression analysis (panel data method)
This paper aimed to research the interrelation between capital structure, corporate governance, equity ownership, and how they affect firm performance. The sample used consisted of 10 leading-energy-sector companies traded in the NYSE, most of which rank among the largest companies in the world by market capitalization, while the US-based ones are also Fortune 500 companies. Over the eleven-year period examined, from 2009 to 2019, a sampling frame of 110 data series was gathered and analyzed using panel data methodologies. The impact of the key parameters of capital structure, corporate governance, and equity ownership was tested using regression analysis (panel data method) on firm performance, measured by profitability. Our results support a significant relation among major capital structure and corporate governance parameters and firm performance, whereas no evidence was found to support a significant impact of equity ownership on the dependent variable found ascertained. Furthermor... [more]
1398. LAPSE:2023.13101
Research on Prediction Method of Volcanic Rock Shear Wave Velocity Based on Improved Xu−White Model
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Bayesian inversion, conventional logging, shear wave velocity prediction, statistical model, volcanic reservoir, Xu–White model
Volcanic rock reservoirs have received extensive attention from scholars all over the world because of their geothermal, mineral, and oil and gas resources. Shear wave velocity is the essential information for AVO (amplitude variation with offset) analysis and the reservoir description of volcanic rocks. However, due to factors such as cost, technical reasons, and so on, shear wave velocity is not provided in many logging data. This paper proposes a shear wave velocity prediction method suitable for the conventional logging of volcanic rocks. Firstly, the Xu−White model is improved. The probability distributions formed by the prior information of the logging area are used to initialize the key petrophysical parameters in the model instead of the fixed parameter value to establish the statistical petrophysical model between the logging curve and shear wave velocity. Then, based on the Bayesian inversion method, the simulated P-wave velocity is matched with the actual P-wave logging data... [more]
1399. LAPSE:2023.13029
Bayesian Workflow and Hidden Markov Energy-Signature Model for Measurement and Verification
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: Bayesian inference, energy signature, hidden Markov model, measurement and verification
A Bayesian data analysis workflow offers great advantages to the process of measurement and verification, including the estimation of savings uncertainty regardless of the chosen numerical model. However, it is still rarely used in practice, perhaps because practitioners are less familiar with the required tools. The present work documents a Bayesian methodology for the assessment of energy savings at the scale of a whole facility, following an energy-conservation measure. The first model, an energy signature commonly used in practice, demonstrates the steps of the Bayesian workflow and illustrates its advantages. The posterior distributions obtained by training this first model are used as prior distributions for a second, more complex model. This so-called “hidden Markov energy signature” model combines the energy signature with a hidden Markov model at an hourly resolution, and allows detection of occupancy. It has a large number of parameters and would likely not be identifiable wi... [more]
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