LAPSE:2023.13400
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.13400
A New Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks
March 1, 2023
Abstract
In this study, we present a new approach for load forecasting (LF) using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) for Kermanshah City. Imagine if there is a need for electricity in a region in the coming years, we will have to build a power plant or reinforce transmission lines, so this will be resolved if accurate forecasts are made at the right time. Furthermore, suppose that by building distributed generation plants, and predicting future consumption, we can conclude that production will be more than consumption, so we will seek to export energy to other countries and make decisions on this. In this paper, a novel combination of neural networks (NNs) and type-2 fuzzy systems (T2FSs) is used for load forecasting. Adding feedback to the fuzzy neural network can also benefit from past moments. This feedback structure is called a recurrent fuzzy neural network. In this paper, Kermanshah urban electrical load data is used. The simulation results prove the efficiency of this method for forecasting the electrical load. We found that we can accurately predict the electrical load of the city for the next day with 98% accuracy. The accuracy index is the evaluation of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The main contributions are: (1) Introducing a new fuzzy neural network. (2) Improving and increasing the accuracy of forecasting using the proposed fuzzy neural network. (3) Taking data from a specific area (Kermanshah City) and forecasting the electrical load for that area. (4) The ability to enter new data without calculations from the beginning.
In this study, we present a new approach for load forecasting (LF) using a recurrent fuzzy neural network (RFNN) for Kermanshah City. Imagine if there is a need for electricity in a region in the coming years, we will have to build a power plant or reinforce transmission lines, so this will be resolved if accurate forecasts are made at the right time. Furthermore, suppose that by building distributed generation plants, and predicting future consumption, we can conclude that production will be more than consumption, so we will seek to export energy to other countries and make decisions on this. In this paper, a novel combination of neural networks (NNs) and type-2 fuzzy systems (T2FSs) is used for load forecasting. Adding feedback to the fuzzy neural network can also benefit from past moments. This feedback structure is called a recurrent fuzzy neural network. In this paper, Kermanshah urban electrical load data is used. The simulation results prove the efficiency of this method for forecasting the electrical load. We found that we can accurately predict the electrical load of the city for the next day with 98% accuracy. The accuracy index is the evaluation of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The main contributions are: (1) Introducing a new fuzzy neural network. (2) Improving and increasing the accuracy of forecasting using the proposed fuzzy neural network. (3) Taking data from a specific area (Kermanshah City) and forecasting the electrical load for that area. (4) The ability to enter new data without calculations from the beginning.
Record ID
Keywords
electrical load forecasting, Machine Learning, recurrent fuzzy neural network, time series
Suggested Citation
Tian MW, Alattas K, El-Sousy F, Alanazi A, Mohammadzadeh A, Tavoosi J, Mobayen S, Skruch P. A New Short Term Electrical Load Forecasting by Type-2 Fuzzy Neural Networks. (2023). LAPSE:2023.13400
Author Affiliations
Tian MW: National Key Project Laboratory, Jiangxi University of Engineering, Xinyu 338000, China
Alattas K: Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, College of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Jeddah, Jeddah 22254, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
El-Sousy F: Department of Electrical Engineering, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia
Alanazi A: Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
Mohammadzadeh A: Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam; School of Engineering and Technology, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam [ORCID]
Tavoosi J: Department of the Electronic System, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark [ORCID]
Mobayen S: Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliu 64002, Taiwan [ORCID]
Skruch P: Department of Automatic Control and Robotics, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Alattas K: Department of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence, College of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Jeddah, Jeddah 22254, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
El-Sousy F: Department of Electrical Engineering, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, Al Kharj 11942, Saudi Arabia
Alanazi A: Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Taif University, P.O. Box 11099, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia [ORCID]
Mohammadzadeh A: Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam; School of Engineering and Technology, Duy Tan University, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam [ORCID]
Tavoosi J: Department of the Electronic System, Aalborg University, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark [ORCID]
Mobayen S: Future Technology Research Center, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, Douliu 64002, Taiwan [ORCID]
Skruch P: Department of Automatic Control and Robotics, AGH University of Science and Technology, 30-059 Kraków, Poland [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
9
First Page
3034
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-04-21
ISSN
1996-1073
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Original Submission
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PII: en15093034, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.13400
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https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093034
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