The challenges of the modern world require transformations in the energy market towards the possible reduction of consumption and greater use of renewable sources. The conducted research of consumers of this market confirms that the behaviour in the field of increased use of renewable energy is burdened with cognitive errors and motivational factors, which makes it difficult to conduct quantitative research. Electricity demand forecasting can be modelled using selected quantitative methods. In this way, not so much the behaviour, but the result of the consumer’s behaviour is predicted. The research presented in the article has been divided into two parts. The aim of the first one is to study the prospects of a greater share of renewable sources in obtaining energy in Poland, based on the attitudes and opinions of consumers on the retail energy market, legal regulations and the energy balance. The aim of the second part is to build forecasts of daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly elect... [more]

Interest in alternative and renewable energy sources has risen significantly in recent years. Biogas is a prime example of a promising, alternative fuel that might be a possible replacement for fossil fuels. It is a mixture consisting mainly of CH4 and CO2 with various additions. Biogas is easily storable and as such is a more reliable and stable source of energy than solar and wind sources, which suffer from unreliability due to their dependence on weather conditions. In this paper, the authors report experimental results of detonation of a biogas-oxygen mixture. The composition of the biogas was 70% CH4 + 30% CO2 and the experiments were carried out for a range of equivalence ratios (Φ = 0.5 ÷ 1.5) and initial pressures (0.6 ÷ 1.6 bar). The aim of the research was to analyze the cellular structure of detonation. The soot foil technique was used to determine the width of the detonation cells (λ). The conducted experiments and subsequent analysis of the detonation cell size confirm tha... [more]

The real-time application research on the Fuzzy Logic Systems (FLSs) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is vast and, in this paper, a technique for a photovoltaic failure analysis using the type 2 FLS and ANN is proposed. The method is proposed to build T2 FLS with a guaranteed value equal to or lower than T2 and ANN. Several explanations are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodologies. It is found that both the type 2 Fuzzy and ANN can be configured for productive actions in applications for a PV fault analysis, and choice is typically applied. The methods discussed in this paper lay the groundwork for developing FLSs and ANNs with durable characteristics that will be extremely useful in many functional applications. The result demonstrates that specific fault categories can be detected using the fault identification method, such as damaged PV modules and partial PV unit shades. The average detection performance is similar in both ANN and fuzzy techniques. In comp... [more]

This study presents a novel approach for discovering actionable knowledge and exploring data-based models from data recorded by household smart meters. The proposed framework is supported by a machine learning architecture based on the application of data mining methods and spatial analysis to extract temporal and spatial restricted clusters of characteristic monthly electricity load profiles. In addition, it uses these clusters to perform short-term load forecasting (1 week) using recurrent neural networks. The approach analyses a database with measurements of 1000 smart meters gathered during 4 years in Guayaquil, Ecuador. Results of the proposed methodology led us to obtain a precise and efficient stratification of typical consumption patterns and to extract neighbour information to improve the performance of residential energy consumption forecasting.

Finding a numerical method to model solute transport in porous media with high heterogeneity is crucial, especially when chemical reactions are involved. The phase space formulation termed the multi-advective water mixing approach (MAWMA) was proposed to address this issue. The water parcel method (WP) may be obtained by discretizing MAWMA in space, time, and velocity. WP needs two transition matrices of velocity to reproduce advection (Markovian in space) and mixing (Markovian in time), separately. The matrices express the transition probability of water instead of individual solute concentration. This entails a change in concept, since the entire transport phenomenon is defined by the water phase. Concentration is reduced to a chemical attribute. The water transition matrix is obtained and is demonstrated to be constant in time. Moreover, the WP method is compared with the classic random walk method (RW) in a high heterogeneous domain. Results show that the WP adequately reproduces a... [more]

In order to improve the accuracy of the multiple load forecasting of a regional integrated energy system, a short-term multiple load forecasting model based on the quantum weighted GRU and multi-task learning framework is proposed in this paper. Firstly, correlation analysis is carried out using a maximum information coefficient to select the input of the model. Then, a multi-task learning architecture is constructed based on the quantum weighted GRU neural network, and the coupling information among multiple loads is learned through the sharing layer in order to improve the prediction accuracy of multiple loads. Finally, the PSO algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the quantum weighted GRU. The simulation data of a regional integrated energy system in northern China are used to predict the power and cooling loads on summer weekdays and rest days, and the results show that, compared with the LSTM, GRU and single task learning QWGRU models, the proposed model is more effectiv... [more]

A fuel market is an important sector of the economy and fuel prices influence the prices of numerous products and services. This paper focuses on the analysis of the interrelationships between markets of fuels in the Visegrad Group (V4) countries. The research is based on weekly prices of Pb95 gasoline and diesel in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia observed from January 2016 through December 2020. After performing the preliminary statistical analysis, the long-term relationships between the prices of fuels are investigated through application of the cointegrated regression Durbin−Watson (CRDW) test. Next, Granger causality is tested to answer the question of whether changes in prices of fuels in separate V4 countries Granger-cause changes in prices of fuels in other V4 countries. The cointegration research uses logarithmic prices, whereas causality investigation is based on their first differences. The results reveal long-term relationships between the prices of Pb95 g... [more]

Online detection of partial discharges (PD) is imperative for condition monitoring of high voltage equipment as well as power cables. However, heavily contaminated sites often burden the signals with various types of noise that can be challenging to remove (denoise). This paper proposes an algorithm based on the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) to denoise PD signals originating from defects in power cables contaminated with various levels of noises. The three most common noise types, namely, Gaussian white noise (GWN), discrete spectral interference (DSI), and stochastic pulse shaped interference (SPI) are considered. The algorithm is applied to an experimentally acquired void-produced partial discharge in a power cable. The MODWT-based algorithm achieved a good improvement in the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and in the normalized correlation coefficient (NCC) for the three types of noises. The MODWT-based algorithm performance was also compared to that of the empirica... [more]

A neural network-based global fast terminal sliding mode control method with non-linear differentiator (NNFTSMC) is proposed in this paper to design the dynamic control system for three-axis stabilized platform. The dynamic model of the three-axis stabilized platform is established with various uncertainties and unknown external disturbances. To overcome the external disturbance and reduce the output chatter of the classical sliding mode control (SMC) system, the improved global fast terminal sliding mode control method using the nonlinear differentiator and neural network techniques is proposed and implemented in the three-axis stabilized platform system. The global fast terminal sliding mode controller can make the controlled state approach to the sliding surface in a finite time. To eliminate the system output chatter, the nonlinear differentiator is employed to obtain the differentiation of the signal. The neural network is introduced to estimate the uncertainties disturbances to i... [more]

Refracturing technology can effectively improve the EUR of horizontal wells in tight reservoirs, and the determination of refracturing time is the key to ensuring the effects of refracturing measures. In view of different types of tight oil reservoirs in the Songliao Basin, a library of 1896 sets of learning samples, with 11 geological and engineering parameters and corresponding refracturing times as characteristic variables, was constructed by combining numerical simulation with field statistics. After a performance comparison and analysis of an artificial neural network, support vector machine and XGBoost algorithm, the support vector machine and XGBoost algorithm were chosen as the base model and fused by the stacking method of integrated learning. Then, a prediction method of refracturing timing of tight oil horizontal wells was established on the basis of an ensemble learning algorithm. Through the prediction and analysis of the refracturing timing corresponding to 257 groups of... [more]

The rapid growth of wind and solar energy penetration has created critical issues, such as fluctuation, uncertainty, and intermittence, that influence the power system stability, grid operation, and the balance of the power supply. Improving the reliability and accuracy of wind and solar energy predictions can enhance the power system stability. This study aims to contribute to the issues of wind and solar energy fluctuation and intermittence by proposing a high-quality prediction model based on neural networks (NNs). The most efficient technology for analyzing the future performance of wind speed and solar irradiance is recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Bidirectional RNNs (BRNNs) have the advantages of manipulating the information in two opposing directions and providing feedback to the same outputs via two different hidden layers. A BRNN’s output layer concurrently receives information from both the backward layers and the forward layers. The bidirectional long short-term memory (BI-... [more]

Accurate and timely wind power forecasting is essential for achieving large-scale wind power grid integration and ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system. For overcoming the inaccuracy of wind power forecasting caused by randomness and volatility, this study proposes a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) model (GA−PSO−CNN) integrating genetic algorithm (GA) and a particle swarm optimization (PSO). The model can establish feature maps between factors affecting wind power such as wind speed, wind direction, and temperature. Moreover, a mix-encoding GA−PSO algorithm is introduced to optimize the network hyperparameters and weights collaboratively, which solves the problem of subjective determination of the optimal network in the CNN and effectively prevents local optimization in the training process. The prediction effectiveness of the proposed model is verified using data from a wind farm in Ningxia, China. The results show that the MAE, MSE, and MAPE of the prop... [more]

The chiller is the major energy consuming HVAC component in a building. Currently, huge chiller data is easy to obtain due to Internet of Things (IoT) technology development. In order to optimize the chiller system, this study presents a data mining technique that utilizes the available chiller data. The data mining techniques used are prediction model, clustering analysis, and association rules mining (ARM) analysis. The dataset was collected every minute for a year from a water-cooled chiller at an institutional building in Taiwan and from meteorological data. The power consumption prediction model was built using deep neural networks with 0.955 of R2, 4.470 of MAE, and 6.716 of RMSE. Clustering analysis was performed using the k-means algorithm and ARM analysis was performed using Apriori algorithm. Each cluster identifies those operational parameters that have strong association rules with high performance. The operational parameters from ARM were simulated using the prediction mod... [more]

Due to the low efficiency and high pollution of conventional internal combustion engine vehicles, the fuel cell hybrid electric vehicles are expected to play a key role in the future of clean energy transportation attributed to the long driving range, short hydrogen refueling time and environmental advantages. The development of energy management strategies has an important impact on the economy and durability, but most strategies ignore the aging of fuel cells and the corresponding impact on hydrogen consumption. In this paper, a rule-based fuzzy control strategy is proposed based on the constructed data-driven online estimation model of fuel cell health. Then, a genetic algorithm is used to optimize this fuzzy controller, where the objective function is designed to consider both the economy and durability by combining the hydrogen consumption cost and the degradation cost characterized by the fuel cell health status. Considering that the rule-based strategy is more sensitive to opera... [more]

Determining the reliable values of the filtration parameters of productive reservoirs is the most important task in monitoring the processes of reserve production. Hydrodynamic studies of wells by the pressure build-up method, as well as a modern method based on production curve analysis (Decline Curve Analysis (DCA)), are some of the effective methods for solving this problem. This paper is devoted to assessing the reliability of these two methods in determining the filtration parameters of terrigenous and carbonaceous productive deposits of oil fields in the Perm Krai. The materials of 150 conditioned and highly informative (obtained using high-precision depth instruments) studies of wells were used to solve this problem, including 100 studies conducted in terrigenous reservoirs (C1v) and 50 carried out in carbonate reservoirs (C2b). To solve the problem, an effective tool was used—multivariate regression analysis. This approach is new and has not been previously used to assess the r... [more]

In this paper, a novel neural network-based robust control method is presented for a vehicle-oriented problem, in which the main goal is to ensure stable motion of the vehicle under critical circumstances. The proposed method can be divided into two main steps. In the first step, the model matching algorithm is proposed, which can adjust the nonlinear dynamics of the controlled system to a nominal, linear model. The aim of model matching is to eliminate the effects of the nonlinearities and uncertainties of the system to increase the performances of the closed-loop system. The model matching process results in an additional control input, which is computed by a neural network during the operation of the control system. Furthermore, in the second step, a robust H∞ is designed, which has double purposes: to handle the fitting error of the neural network and ensure the accurate tracking of the reference signal. The operation and efficiency of the proposed control algorithm are investigate... [more]

Forecasting renewable energy sources is of critical importance to several practical applications in the energy field. However, due to the inherent volatile nature of these energy sources, doing so remains challenging. Numerous time-series methods have been explored in literature, which consider only one specific type of renewables (e.g., solar or wind), and are suited to small-scale (micro-level) deployments. In this paper, the different types of renewable energy sources are reflected, which are distributed at a national level (macro-level). To generate accurate predictions, a methodology is proposed, which consists of two main phases. In the first phase, the most relevant variables having impact on the generation of the renewables are identified using correlation analysis. The second phase consists of (1) estimating model parameters, (2) optimising and reducing the number of generated models, and (3) selecting the best model for the method under study. To this end, the three most-rele... [more]

Hydrographic surveys, in accordance with the International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) S-44 standard, can be carried out in the following five orders: Exclusive, Special, 1a, 1b and 2, for which minimum accuracy requirements for the applied positioning system have been set out. They are as follows, respectively: 1, 2, 5, 5 and 20 m, with a confidence level of 95% in two-dimensional space. The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) network solutions (accuracy: 2−3 cm (p = 0.95)) and the Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) (accuracy: 1−2 m (p = 0.95)) are now commonly used positioning methods in hydrography. Due to the fact that a new order of hydrographic surveys has appeared in the IHO S-44 standard from 2020—Exclusive, looking at the current positioning accuracy of the DGPS system, it is not known whether it can be used in it. The aim of this article is to determine the usefulness of GNSS/Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) for hydrographic surveys. During the research,... [more]

The central problems of some of the existing Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring (NILM) algorithms are indicated as: (1) higher required electrical device identification accuracy; (2) the fact that they enable training over a larger device count; and (3) their ability to be trained faster, limiting them from usage in industrial premises and external grids due to their sensitivity to various device types found in residential premises. The algorithm accuracy is higher compared to previous work and is capable of training over at least thirteen electrical devices collaboratively, a number that could be much higher if such a dataset is generated. The algorithm trains the data around 1.8×108 faster due to a higher sampling rate. These improvements potentially enable the algorithm to be suitable for future “grids and industrial premises load identification” systems. The algorithm builds on new principles: an electro-spectral features preprocessor, a faster waveform sampling sensor, a shorter requir... [more]

Evaluation of attractive areas of high- and ultra-high voltage power transmission lines to direct lightning strokes is based on modeling of propagating progress of the lightning leader approaching the transmission line. The aim of the modeling is to determine the effectiveness of lightning protection for a given line design. The statistical models are currently being developed to extend the conventional deterministic models by embracing the randomness of the discharge channel in space and hence to reproduce the statistical distribution of the striking points. These models require experimental data for understanding of the lightning leader development process and to validate the model across the measurement data. This paper reports on the measured trajectories of discharge channels of long laboratory sparks in various high voltage laboratory arrangements. The sparks were initiated by switching and lightning impulses with peak values ranging from 1200 kV to 3364 kV of positive and negati... [more]

Battery Management System (BMS) design for Lithium-ion batteries State of Charge (SoC) prediction has a crucial role in Electric Vehicles (EVs) and smart grids development. The need to design compact, light and fast devices requires finding a suitable trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency. In the literature, it is well emphasized that the application of electrochemical-based methods such as the Pseudo-Two-Dimensional (P2D) model is computationally prohibitive and requires significant simplifications. Conversely, plain Equivalent Circuit Models (ECM) are too simple and unable to represent the cell dynamics. The application of an Ensemble Neural Network (ENN) as Equivalent Neural Network Circuit (ENNC) emerged as a promising solution able to synthesize expressive and computationally efficient models. Indeed, with the support of a suitable dataset, an ENN can be configured to represent a given ECM, modeling each lumped parameter through an assigned Neural Network (NN). Accordingl... [more]

Short-Term Load Forecasting is critical for reliable power system operation, and the search for enhanced methodologies has been a constant field of investigation, particularly in an increasingly competitive environment where the market operator and its participants need to better inform their decisions. Hence, it is important to continue advancing in terms of forecasting accuracy and consistency. This paper presents a new deep learning-based ensemble methodology for 24 h ahead load forecasting, where an automatic framework is proposed to select the best Box-Jenkins models (ARIMA Forecasters), from a wide-range of combinations. The method is distinct in its parameters but more importantly in considering different batches of historical (training) data, thus benefiting from prediction models focused on recent and longer load trends. Afterwards, these accurate predictions, mainly the linear components of the load time-series, are fed to the ensemble Deep Forward Neural Network. This flexib... [more]

The focus of this work is to computationally obtain an optimized neural network (NN) model to predict battery average Nusselt number (Nuavg) data using four activations functions. The battery Nuavg is highly nonlinear as reported in the literature, which depends mainly on flow velocity, coolant type, heat generation, thermal conductivity, battery length to width ratio, and space between the parallel battery packs. Nuavg is modeled at first using only one hidden layer in the network (NN1). The neurons in NN1 are experimented from 1 to 10 with activation functions: Sigmoidal, Gaussian, Tanh, and Linear functions to get the optimized NN1. Similarly, deep NN (NND) was also analyzed with neurons and activations functions to find an optimized number of hidden layers to predict the Nuavg. RSME (root mean square error) and R-Squared (R2) is accessed to conclude the optimized NN model. From this computational experiment, it is found that NN1 and NND both accurately predict the battery data. Six... [more]

Optimal operation of hydropower plants (HP) is a crucial task for the control of several variables involved in the power generation process, including hydraulic level and power generation rate. In general, there are three main problems that an optimal operation approach must address: (i) maintaining a hydraulic head level which satisfies the energy demand at a given time, (ii) regulating operation to match with certain established conditions, even in the presence of system’s parametric variations, and (iii) managing external disturbances at the system’s input. To address these problems, in this paper we propose an approach for optimal hydraulic level tracking based on an Inverse Optimal Controller (IOC), devised with the purpose of regulating power generation rates on a specific HP infrastructure. The Closed−Loop System (CLS) has been simulated using data collected from the HP through a whole year of operation as a tracking reference. Furthermore, to combat parametric variations, an ac... [more]

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors are becoming increasingly relevant for banks as entities that play an essential role in supporting the development of enterprises, individuals and the whole economy. The paper aims to evaluate the impact of the ESC directive on banks’ energy behavior disclosures, explicitly relating to behaviors towards energy use and its impact on banks’ performance. We developed a methodology to provide the objective characteristic of banks’ energy behavior. In the paper, the banks’ energy behavior (BEB) index is calculated using sixteen indicators, followed by further analysis of its relationship with banks’ performance measured by indexes referring to banks’ characteristics, efficiency, and solvency. Our results are based on an analysis of the disclosures in nonfinancial reports. We find correlations that indicate that banks that are more likely to demonstrate energy behaviors (with a high BEB index) are those that better manage their costs and ar... [more]