LAPSE:2023.18478
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.18478
A Hybrid GA−PSO−CNN Model for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting
Jie Liu, Quan Shi, Ruilian Han, Juan Yang
March 8, 2023
Accurate and timely wind power forecasting is essential for achieving large-scale wind power grid integration and ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power system. For overcoming the inaccuracy of wind power forecasting caused by randomness and volatility, this study proposes a hybrid convolutional neural network (CNN) model (GA−PSO−CNN) integrating genetic algorithm (GA) and a particle swarm optimization (PSO). The model can establish feature maps between factors affecting wind power such as wind speed, wind direction, and temperature. Moreover, a mix-encoding GA−PSO algorithm is introduced to optimize the network hyperparameters and weights collaboratively, which solves the problem of subjective determination of the optimal network in the CNN and effectively prevents local optimization in the training process. The prediction effectiveness of the proposed model is verified using data from a wind farm in Ningxia, China. The results show that the MAE, MSE, and MAPE of the proposed GA−PSO−CNN model decreased by 1.13−9.55%, 0.46−7.98%, and 3.28−19.29%, respectively, in different seasons, compared with Single−CNN, PSO−CNN, ISSO−CNN, and CHACNN models. The convolution kernel size and number in each convolution layer were reduced by 5−18.4% in the GA−PSO−CNN model.
Keywords
convolutional neural network, Genetic Algorithm, hybrid, Particle Swarm Optimization, ultra-short-term, wind power forecasting
Suggested Citation
Liu J, Shi Q, Han R, Yang J. A Hybrid GA−PSO−CNN Model for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting. (2023). LAPSE:2023.18478
Author Affiliations
Liu J: Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-Marking, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Shi Q: Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-Marking, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Han R: Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-Marking, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China
Yang J: Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-Marking, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
14
Issue
20
First Page
6500
Year
2021
Publication Date
2021-10-11
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en14206500, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.18478
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doi:10.3390/en14206500
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