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Records with Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Showing records 1107 to 1131 of 2174. [First] Page: 1 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 Last
Key Performance Indicators for Evaluation of Commercial Building Retrofits: Shortlisting via an Industry Survey
Man Ying (Annie) Ho, Joseph H. K. Lai, Huiying (Cynthia) Hou, Dadi Zhang
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: facility management, KPI, refurbishment, renovation, retrofit, survey
Key performance indicators (KPIs) are quintessentially useful for performance evaluation, but a set of pragmatic KPIs for holistic evaluation of retrofits for commercial buildings is hitherto unavailable. This study was conducted to address this issue. Built upon the findings of a systematic literature review and a focus group meeting in the earlier stages of the study, a questionnaire survey covering 19 KPIs for environmental (embracing energy), economic, health and safety, and users’ perspective evaluations of building retrofits was developed. Data of the survey, collected from facility management (FM) practitioners in Hong Kong, underwent a series of statistical analyses, including Kruskal−Wallis H test, Mann−Whitney U test, and Spearman Rank Correlation. The analysis results revealed the levels of importance of KPIs perceived by different groups of FM practitioners and the rankings of KPIs. Based upon these results, eight KPIs were shortlisted, which are energy savings, payback per... [more]
Numerical Investigation on the Flame Structure and CO/NO Formations of the Laminar Premixed Biogas−Hydrogen Impinging Flame in the Wall Vicinity
Zhilong Wei, Lei Wang, Hu Liu, Zihao Liu, Haisheng Zhen
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: biogas–hydrogen blends, CO and NO formations, impinging flame, near-wall flame structure
The near-wall flame structure and pollutant emissions of the laminar premixed biogas-hydrogen impinging flame were simulated with a detailed chemical mechanism. The spatial distributions of the temperature, critical species, and pollutant emissions near the wall of the laminar premixed biogas−hydrogen impinging flame were obtained and investigated quantitatively. The results show that the cold wall can influence the premixed combustion process in the flame front, which is close to the wall but does not touch the wall, and results in the obviously declined concentrations of OH, H, and O radicals in the premixed combustion zone. After flame quenching, a high CO concentration can be observed near the wall at equivalence ratios (φ) of both 0.8 and 1.2. Compared with that at φ = 1.0, more unburned fuel is allowed to pass through the quenching zone and generate CO after flame quenching near the wall thanks to the suppressed fuel consumption rate near the wall and the excess fuel in the unbur... [more]
A Class of Reduced-Order Regenerator Models
Raphael Paul, Karl Heinz Hoffmann
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: endoreversible thermodynamics, irreversibility, numerical model, regenerator, stirling, vuilleumier
We present a novel class of reduced-order regenerator models that is based on Endoreversible Thermodynamics. The models rest upon the idea of an internally reversible (perfect) regenerator, even though they are not limited to the reversible description. In these models, the temperatures of the working gas that alternately streams out on the regenerator’s hot and cold sides are defined as functions of the state of the regenerator matrix. The matrix is assumed to feature a linear spatial temperature distribution. Thus, the matrix has only two degrees of freedom that can, for example, be identified with its energy and entropy content. The dynamics of the regenerator is correspondingly expressed in terms of balance equations for energy and entropy. Internal irreversibilities of the regenerator can be accounted for by introducing source terms to the entropy balance equation. Compared to continuum or nodal regenerator models, the number of degrees of freedom and numerical effort are reduced... [more]
Fault Detection in PV Tracking Systems Using an Image Processing Algorithm Based on PCA
Tito G. Amaral, Vitor Fernão Pires, Armando J. Pires
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Fault Detection, image processing, photovoltaic systems (pv), principal component analysis (PCA), tracking system, two-axis
Photovoltaic power plants nowadays play an important role in the context of energy generation based on renewable sources. With the purpose of obtaining maximum efficiency, the PV modules of these power plants are installed in trackers. However, the mobile structure of the trackers is subject to faults, which can compromise the desired perpendicular position between the PV modules and the brightest point in the sky. So, the diagnosis of a fault in the trackers is fundamental to ensure the maximum energy production. Approaches based on sensors and statistical methods have been researched but they are expensive and time consuming. To overcome these problems, a new method is proposed for the fault diagnosis in the trackers of the PV systems based on a machine learning approach. In this type of approach the developed method can be classified into two major categories: supervised and unsupervised. In accordance with this, to implement the desired fault diagnosis, an unsupervised method based... [more]
Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Image Reconstruction Using the LSTM Classifier in Industrial Electrical Tomography
Grzegorz Kłosowski, Tomasz Rymarczyk, Konrad Niderla, Magdalena Rzemieniak, Artur Dmowski, Michał Maj
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: electrical tomography, industrial tomography, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, Machine Learning, neural networks
Electrical tomography is a non-invasive method of monitoring the interior of objects, which is used in various industries. In particular, it is possible to monitor industrial processes inside reactors and tanks using tomography. Tomography enables real-time observation of crystals or gas bubbles growing in a liquid. However, obtaining high-resolution tomographic images is problematic because it involves solving the so-called ill-posed inverse problem. Noisy input data cause problems, too. Therefore, the use of appropriate hardware solutions to eliminate this phenomenon is necessary. An important cause of obtaining accurate tomographic images may also be the incorrect selection of algorithmic methods used to convert the measurements into the output images. In a dynamically changing environment of a tank reactor, selecting the optimal algorithmic method used to create a tomographic image becomes an optimization problem. This article presents the machine learning method’s original concept... [more]
Hybrid Forecast and Control Chain for Operation of Flexibility Assets in Micro-Grids
Hamidreza Mirtaheri, Piero Macaluso, Maurizio Fantino, Marily Efstratiadi, Sotiris Tsakanikas, Panagiotis Papadopoulos, Andrea Mazza
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ant colony optimization, Artificial Intelligence, convolutional neural network, energy management system, forecast, microgrids, neural networks, recurrent neural networks
Studies on forecasting and optimal exploitation of renewable resources (especially within microgrids) were already introduced in the past. However, in several research papers, the constraints regarding integration within real applications were relaxed, i.e., this kind of research provides impractical solutions, although they are very complex. In this paper, the computational components (such as photovoltaic and load forecasting, and resource scheduling and optimization) are brought together into a practical implementation, introducing an automated system through a chain of independent services aiming to allow forecasting, optimization, and control. Encountered challenges may provide a valuable indication to make ground with this design, especially in cases for which the trade-off between sophistication and available resources should be rather considered. The research work was conducted to identify the requirements for controlling a set of flexibility assets—namely, electrochemical batt... [more]
A Critical Review of Data-Driven Transient Stability Assessment of Power Systems: Principles, Prospects and Challenges
Shitu Zhang, Zhixun Zhu, Yang Li
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: data-driven approach, feature extraction and selection, model construction, power systems, review, transient stability assessment
Transient stability assessment (TSA) has always been a fundamental means for ensuring the secure and stable operation of power systems. Due to the integration of new elements such as power electronics, electric vehicles and renewable power generations, dynamic characteristics of power systems are becoming more and more complex, which makes TSA an increasingly urgent task. Since traditional time-domain simulations and direct method cannot meet the actual operation requirements of power systems, data-driven TSA has attracted growing attention from both academia and industry. This paper makes a comprehensive review from the following four aspects: feature extraction and selection, model construction, online learning and rule extraction; and then, summarizes the challenges and prospects for future research; finally, draws the conclusions of this review. This review will be beneficial for relevant researchers to better understand the research status, key technologies, and existing challenge... [more]
Employer Expectations Regarding the Competencies of Employees on the Energy Market in Poland
Robert Szydło, Sylwia Wiśniewska, Małgorzata Tyrańska, Anna Dolot, Urszula Bukowska, Marek Koczyński
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: competence, competency, energy market, hard skills, labor demand, labor market, Poland, soft skills
It is because of competencies that there is a possibility of ensuring the strategic safety of each country when it comes to energy security. With the vast development of IT and teamwork, there are various competencies needed in the whole energy sector. The aim of this study is to assess the needs of competencies in the Polish energy labor market as well as the trends among hard ad soft skills also in the context of renewable energy sources. Within an exploratory approach, 245 job advertisements were analyzed using various tools, including general descriptive statistics, Shapiro-Wilk, Kruskal−Wallis H and Mann−Whitney U tests, as well as Spearman’s Rho. The research confirmed that teamwork and MS Office are crucial demands of employers. It is also important that the market is diverse when it comes to competence demands, but soft skills are needed in every position, even purely technical ones.
Solar-Powered Active Road Studs and Highway Infrastructure: Effect on Vehicle Speeds
Richard Llewellyn, Jonathan Cowie, Grigorios Fountas
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: active road studs, highway infrastructure, road features, road safety, vehicle speeds
Vehicle speeds have a direct relationship with the severity of road crashes and may influence their probability of occurrence. Solar-powered active road studs have been shown to have a positive effect on driver confidence, but their impact on vehicle speed in conjunction with other road features is little understood. This study aims to address this gap in knowledge through a case study of a 20 km section of a strategic major road featuring a variety of highway infrastructure features. Before-and-after surveys were undertaken at 21 locations along the route using manual radar speed measurement. Analysis of nearly 10,000 speed measurements showed no statistically significant change in mean speeds following the implementation of the road studs. Linear regression models are proposed for two different posted speed limits, associating road features with expected vehicle speed. The models suggest that vehicle speeds are chiefly influenced by merges, curves, gradients, and ambient light condit... [more]
Battery State-of-Health Estimation Using Machine Learning and Preprocessing with Relative State-of-Charge
Sungwoo Jo, Sunkyu Jung, Taemoon Roh
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: data preprocessing, data-driven approaches, lithium-ion battery, neural network, SOH estimation, state of charge
Because lithium-ion batteries are widely used for various purposes, it is important to estimate their state of health (SOH) to ensure their efficiency and safety. Despite the usefulness of model-based methods for SOH estimation, the difficulties of battery modeling have resulted in a greater emphasis on machine learning for SOH estimation. Furthermore, data preprocessing has received much attention because it is an important step in determining the efficiency of machine learning methods. In this paper, we propose a new preprocessing method for improving the efficiency of machine learning for SOH estimation. The proposed method consists of the relative state of charge (SOC) and data processing, which transforms time-domain data into SOC-domain data. According to the correlation analysis, SOC-domain data are more correlated with the usable capacity than time-domain data. Furthermore, we compare the estimation results of SOC-based data and time-based data in feedforward neural networks (F... [more]
State-of-the-Art Measurement Instrumentation and Most Recent Measurement Techniques for Parabolic Trough Collector Fields
Alex Brenner, Tobias Hirsch, Marc Röger, Robert Pitz-Paal
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: concentrating solar power, condition monitoring, measurement instrumentation, measurement uncertainties, parabolic trough, sensor
The presented review gives reliable information about the currently used measurement instrumentation in parabolic trough fields and recent monitoring approaches. The usually built-in measurement equipment in the solar field, clamp-on systems for flexible measurements of temperature and flow, solar irradiance measurements, standard meteorological equipment, laboratory devices for heat transfer fluid analyses and instruments related to the tracking of solar collector assemblies are presented in detail. The measurement systems are reported with their measurement uncertainty, approximate costs and usual installation location for the built-in instrumentation. Specific findings related to the installation and operation of the measurement devices are presented. The usually installed instrumentation delivers a lot of measurements all over the field at the expense of measurement accuracy, compared to special test facility equipment. Recently introduced measurement approaches can improve the sta... [more]
Economic Evaluation of the Production of Perennial Crops for Energy Purposes—A Review
Ewelina Olba-Zięty, Mariusz Jerzy Stolarski, Michał Krzyżaniak
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: bibliometric networks, bioenergy, economic analysis, Miscanthus, perennial crops, poplar, willow
Biomass is widely used for the production of renewable energy, which calls for an economic evaluation of its generation. The aim of the present work was to review the literature concerning the economic evaluation of the production of perennial crop biomass for energy use. Statistical analysis of the bibliographic data was carried out, as well as an assessment of methods and values of economic indicators of the production of perennial crops for bioenergy. Most of the papers selected for the review were published in the years 2015−2019, which was probably stimulated by the growing interest in sustainable development, particularly after 2015, when the United Nations declared 17 sustainable development goals. The earliest articles concerned the economic analysis of plantations of short rotation coppice; the subsequent ones included the analysis of feedstock production in terms of the net present value and policy. The latest references also investigated transport and sustainability issues.... [more]
Non-Destructive Diagnostic Methods for Fire-Side Corrosion Risk Assessment of Industrial Scale Boilers, Burning Low Quality Solid Biofuels—A Mini Review
Tomasz Hardy, Amit Arora, Halina Pawlak-Kruczek, Wojciech Rafajłowicz, Jerzy Wietrzych, Łukasz Niedźwiecki, Vishwajeet, Krzysztof Mościcki
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: boiler tube wastage, diagnostics, fire-side corrosion, industrial-scale boilers, non-destructive inspection, pipe inspection, wall thickness measurement
The use of low-emission combustion technologies in power boilers has contributed to a significant increase in the rate of high-temperature corrosion in boilers and increased risk of failure. The use of low quality biomass and waste, caused by the current policies pressing on the decarbonization of the energy generation sector, might exacerbate this problem. Additionally, all of the effects of the valorization techniques on the inorganic fraction of the solid fuel have become an additional uncertainty. As a result, fast and reliable corrosion diagnostic techniques are slowly becoming a necessity to maintain the security of the energy supply for the power grid. Non-destructive testing methods (NDT) are helpful in detecting these threats. The most important NDT methods, which can be used to assess the degree of corrosion of boiler tubes, detection of the tubes’ surface roughness and the internal structural defects, have been presented in the paper. The idea of the use of optical technique... [more]
Application of Gene Expression Programming (GEP) in Modeling Hydrocarbon Recovery in WAG Injection Process
Shokufe Afzali, Mohamad Mohamadi-Baghmolaei, Sohrab Zendehboudi
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: empirical correlation, gene expression programing, oil recovery, statistical analysis, WAG injection
Water alternating gas (WAG) injection has been successfully applied as a tertiary recovery technique. Forecasting WAG flooding performance using fast and robust models is of great importance to attain a better understanding of the process, optimize the operational conditions, and avoid high-cost blind tests in laboratory or pilot scales. In this study, we introduce a novel correlation to determine the performance of the near-miscible WAG flooding in strongly water-wet sandstones. We conduct dimensional analysis with Buckingham’s π theorem technique to generate dimensionless numbers using eight key parameters. Seven dimensionless numbers are employed as the input variables of the desired correlation for predicting the recovery factor of a near-miscible WAG injection. A verified mathematical model is used to generate the required training and testing data for the development of the correlation using a gene expression programming (GEP) algorithm. The provided data points are then separate... [more]
Implementation of ANN-Based Embedded Hybrid Power Filter Using HIL-Topology with Real-Time Data Visualization through Node-RED
Raffay Rizwan, Jehangir Arshad, Ahmad Almogren, Mujtaba Hussain Jaffery, Adnan Yousaf, Ayesha Khan, Ateeq Ur Rehman, Muhammad Shafiq
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: ANN-based algorithm, backpropagation, gradient descent, hardware in the loop (HIL), hybrid shunt active harmonic power filter (HSAHPF), Node-RED, serial socket TCP/IP, total harmonic distortion
Electrical power consumption and distribution and ensuring its quality are important for industries as the power sector mandates a clean and green process with the least possible carbon footprint and to avoid damage of expensive electrical components. The harmonics elimination has emerged as a topic of prime importance for researchers and industry to realize the maintenance of power quality in the light of the 7th Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This paper implements a Hybrid Shunt Active Harmonic Power Filter (HSAHPF) to reduce harmonic pollution. An ANN-based control algorithm has been used to implement Hardware in the Loop (HIL) configuration, and the network is trained on the model of pq0 theory. The HIL configuration is applied to integrate a physical processor with the designed filter. In this configuration, an external microprocessor (Raspberry PI 3B+) has been employed as a primary data server for the ANN-based algorithm to provide reference current signals for HSAHPF. Th... [more]
Benefit Evaluation Model of Prefabricated Buildings in Seasonally Frozen Regions
Qianqian Zhao, Junzhen Li, Roman Fediuk, Sergey Klyuev, Darya Nemova
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: analytic hierarchy process (AHP), numerical models, prefabricated building, whole life cycle
In order to effectively develop the benefit evaluation model of prefabricated houses in seasonal frozen soil areas, and improve the comprehensive benefits of prefabricated buildings, this paper proposes a life cycle benefit evaluation model for prefabricated buildings in seasonally frozen regions. According to the climatic characteristics of the area, the impact of the seasonally frozen regions is listed as an evaluation index in the construction stage for comprehensive analysis. The 16 indicators that affect the comprehensive benefits of prefabricated buildings are grouped by the nearest neighbor element analysis method. Fuzzy cluster analysis and analytic hierarchy process are used to filter out the most influential index group to calculate the index weight. Then the model proposed in this paper is compared with the existing model to test the validity of the model. The research results show that research and development costs weight is 0.23, design cost weight is 0.10, construction c... [more]
Doughnut-Shaped and Top Hat Solar Laser Beams Numerical Analysis
Miguel Catela, Dawei Liang, Cláudia R. Vistas, Dário Garcia, Bruno D. Tibúrcio, Hugo Costa, Joana Almeida
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: doughnut-shaped, Nd:YAG, solar laser, solar pumping, top hat, twisted light guide
Aside from the industry-standard Gaussian intensity profile, top hat and non-conventional laser beam shapes, such as doughnut-shaped profile, are ever more required. The top hat laser beam profile is well-known for uniformly irradiating the target material, significantly reducing the heat-affected zones, typical of Gaussian laser irradiation, whereas the doughnut-shaped laser beam has attracted much interest for its use in trapping particles at the nanoscale and improving mechanical performance during laser-based 3D metal printing. Solar-pumped lasers can be a cost-effective and more sustainable alternative to accomplish these useful laser beam distributions. The sunlight was collected and concentrated by six primary Fresnel lenses, six folding mirror collectors, further compressed with six secondary fused silica concentrators, and symmetrically distributed by six twisted light guides around a 5.5 mm diameter, 35 mm length Nd:YAG rod inside a cylindrical cavity. A top hat laser beam pr... [more]
Overview of the Tolerance Limit Calculations with Application to TSURFER
Hany Abdel-Khalik, Dongli Huang, Ugur Mertyurek, William Marshall, William Wieselquist
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, Bayesian inference, statistical tolerance limits
To establish confidence in the results of computerized physics models, a key regulatory requirement is to develop a scientifically defendable process. The methods employed for confidence, characterization, and consolidation, or C3, are statistically involved and are often accessible only to avid statisticians. This manuscript serves as a pedagogical presentation of the C3 process to all stakeholders—including researchers, industrial practitioners, and regulators—to impart an intuitive understanding of the key concepts and mathematical methods entailed by C3. The primary focus is on calculation of tolerance limits, which is the overall goal of the C3 process. Tolerance limits encode the confidence in the calculation results as communicated to the regulator. Understanding the C3 process is especially critical today, as the nuclear industry is considering more innovative ways to assess new technologies, including new reactor and fuel concepts, via an integrated approach that optimally com... [more]
Investigating the Behaviour of Air−Water Upward and Downward Flows: Are You Seeing What I Am Seeing?
Mukhtar Abdulkadir, Olumayowa T. Kajero, Fawziyah O. Olarinoye, Dickson O. Udebhulu, Donglin Zhao, Aliyu M. Aliyu, Abdelsalam Al-Sarkhi
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: air–water system, conductance ring probes, downward flow, large-diameter, liquid fraction, upward flow
Understanding the behaviour of gas−liquid flows in upward and downward pipe configurations in chemical, petroleum, and nuclear industries is vital when optimal design, operation, production, and safety are of paramount concern. Unfortunately, the information concerning the behaviour of such flows in large pipe diameters is rare. This article aims to bridge that gap by reporting air−water upward and downward flows in 127 mm internal diameter pipes using advanced conductance ring probes located at two measurement locations. The liquid and gas flow rates are 0.021 to 0.33 m/s and 3.52 to 16.1 m/s, correspondingly, covering churn and annular flows. To achieve the desired objectives, several parameters, probability density function (PDF), power spectral density (PSD), Slippage Number (SN), drift velocity (Ugd), and distribution coefficient (C0) were employed. The flow regimes encountered in the two pipe configurations were distinguished employing a flow regime map available in the literatur... [more]
Chemostratigraphic Analysis of Wufeng and Longmaxi Formation in Changning, Sichuan, China: Achieved by Principal Component and Constrained Clustering Analysis
Zhifeng Zhang, Yongjian Huang, Bo Ran, Wei Liu, Xiang Li, Chengshan Wang
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: chemofacies, chemozones, geochemistry, sweet-spot layers, Wufeng-Longmaxi Formation
The increasing proportion of unconventional worldwide energy demands have consistently promoted the necessity for exploring a precise, high-resolution, objective, and quantitative stratigraphic division method for macroscopically homogeneous mudstone successions. The chemostratigraphy can resolve this problem well, although it has been applied successfully in North America, but not systematically studied in China for shale gas exploration and development. This work has conducted a chemostratigraphic analysis of Wufeng and Longmaxi Formation on the Changning section of Sichuan Province, southwestern China, to testify its applicability for shale gas exploration in China. Principal component analysis (PCA) was first employed to reduce the dimensionality of datasets. Three chemofacies, including detrital (K, Ti, Fe, Al, Na, Mg, Cr, Zr, Rb), authigenic (Ca, Sr, Mn, Si, S, Ba), and redox-organic (P, V, Ni, Zn, Cu, TOC), were found. Subsequently, constrained clustering analysis was utilized f... [more]
From Two- to Three-Dimensional Model of Heat Flow in Edge-Emitting Laser: Theory, Experiment and Numerical Tools
Michał Szymański, Anna Kozłowska, Jens Tomm, Roman Huk, Andrzej Maląg, Marian Rusek
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: catastrophic optical damage, edge-emitting laser, heat conduction equation, mirror temperature, temperature distribution, thermal analysis
Mathematical modeling of thermal behavior of edge-emitting lasers requires the usage of sophisticated time-consuming numerical methods like FEM (Finite Element Method) or very complicated 3D analytical approaches. In this work, we present an approach, which is based on a relatively simple 2D analytical solution of heat conduction equation. Our method enables extremely fast calculation of two crucial physical quantities; namely, junction and mirror temperature. As an example subject of research, we chose self-made p-side-down mounted InGaAs/GaAs/AlGaAs laser. Purpose-designed axial heat source function was introduced to take into account various mirror heating mechanisms, namely, surface recombination, reabsorption of radiation, Joule, and bulk heating. Our theoretical investigations were accompanied by experiments. We used micro-Raman spectroscopy for measuring the temperature of the laser front facet. We show excellent convergence of calculated and experimental results. In addition, w... [more]
A Double-Bridge Channel Shape of a Membraneless Microfluidic Fuel Cell
Ji-Hyun Oh, Muhammad Tanveer, Kwang-Yong Kim
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: double-bridge channel, mass transport losses, membraneless microfluidic fuel cell (MMFC), mixing region, numerical model
A double-bridge shape is proposed as a novel flow channel cross-sectional shape of a membraneless microfluidic fuel cell, and its electrochemical performance was analyzed with a numerical model. A membraneless microfluidic fuel cell (MMFC) is a micro/nano-scale fuel cell with better economic and commercial viability with the elimination of the polymer electrolyte membrane. The numerical model involves the Navier−Stokes, Butler−Volmer, and mass transport equations. The results from the numerical model were validated with the experimental results for a single-bridge channel. The proposed MMFC with double-bridge flow channel shape performed better in comparison to the single-bridge channel shape. A parametric study for the double-bridge channel was performed using three sub-channel widths with the fixed total channel width and the bridge height. The performance of the MMFC varied most significantly with the variation in the width of the inner channel among the sub-channel widths, and the... [more]
Analysis for Non-Residential Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Statistical Methods with Financial Impact on the Power Market
Stefan Ungureanu, Vasile Topa, Andrei Cristinel Cziker
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: forecast evaluation, load forecasting, Machine Learning, power market
Short-term load forecasting predetermines how power systems operate because electricity production needs to sustain demand at all times and costs. Most load forecasts for the non-residential consumers are empirically done either by a customer’s employee or supplier personnel based on experience and historical data, which is frequently not consistent. Our objective is to develop viable and market-oriented machine learning models for short-term forecasting for non-residential consumers. Multiple algorithms were implemented and compared to identify the best model for a cluster of industrial and commercial consumers. The article concludes that the sliding window approach for supervised learning with recurrent neural networks can learn short and long-term dependencies in time series. The best method implemented for the 24 h forecast is a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) applied for aggregated loads over three months of testing data resulted in 5.28% MAPE and minimized the cost with 5326.17 € comp... [more]
Comparing LSTM and GRU Models to Predict the Condition of a Pulp Paper Press
Balduíno César Mateus, Mateus Mendes, José Torres Farinha, Rui Assis, António Marques Cardoso
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: GRU, LSTM, paper press, predictive maintenance, recurrent neural network
The accuracy of a predictive system is critical for predictive maintenance and to support the right decisions at the right times. Statistical models, such as ARIMA and SARIMA, are unable to describe the stochastic nature of the data. Neural networks, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) and the gated recurrent unit (GRU), are good predictors for univariate and multivariate data. The present paper describes a case study where the performances of long short-term memory and gated recurrent units are compared, based on different hyperparameters. In general, gated recurrent units exhibit better performance, based on a case study on pulp paper presses. The final result demonstrates that, to maximize the equipment availability, gated recurrent units, as demonstrated in the paper, are the best options.
Natural Convection over Two Superellipse Shapes with a Porous Cavity Populated by Nanofluid
Noura Alsedais
March 7, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: nanofluid, natural convection, non-Darcy porous cavity, porous media, superellipse shape cavity, thermal conductivity
The influences of superellipse shapes on natural convection in a horizontally subdivided non-Darcy porous cavity populated by Cu-water nanofluid are inspected in this paper. The impacts of the inner geometries (n=0.5,1,1.5,4), Rayleigh number (103≤Ra≤106), Darcy number (10−5≤Da≤10−2), porosity (0.2≤ϵ≤0.8), and solid volume fraction (0.01≤∅≤0.05) on nanofluid heat transport and streamlines were examined. The hot superellipse shapes were placed in the cavity’s bottom and top, while the adiabatic boundaries on the flat walls of the cavity were considered. The governing equations were numerically solved using the finite volume method (FVM). It was found that the movement of the nanofluid upsurged as Ra boosted. The temperature distributions in the cavity’s core had an inverse relationship with increasing Rayleigh number. An extra porous resistance at lower Darcy numbers limited the nanofluid’s movement within the porous layers. The mean Nusselt number decreased as the porous resistance inc... [more]
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