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Records with Subject: Energy Policy
721. LAPSE:2023.14112
Analysis of the Potential Management of the Low-Carbon Energy Transformation by 2050
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: analysis, energy pillars, energy policy, energy transformation, management.
Establishing conditions that meet climate requirements should be one of the most important goals of the whole world in order to protect against the negative effects of climate change. Without cooperation and considerable commitment from everyone, it is possible that these negative effects will worsen. The implementation of the Energy Policy from now until 2050 should facilitate the transformation of the coal-based power system toward a more sustainable and diversified mix of energy sources. Financial investments in the countries analyzed in this paper create real opportunities and changes for the transition toward renewable energy sources (RES), but there is criticism concerning the insufficient speed of change and the costs of the transformation for society. The dominant emphasis on the optimum selection of energy sources creates conflicts, especially in democratic decision-making. Resource management is both incremental and participatory, and while decisions are strongly based on sci... [more]
722. LAPSE:2023.14102
Smart Metering Roll-Out in Europe: Where Do We Stand? Cost Benefit Analyses in the Clean Energy Package and Research Trends in the Green Deal
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: cost–benefit analysis, smart grid, smart metering.
2020 was a key year for several targets in European energy and climate policy, including the requirement for European countries to deploy smart metering for at least 80% of electricity consumers. This target was set to ease the transition towards a consumer-centered and digitalized energy system. In fact, there are numerous applications that are facilitated or are directly linked to smart meters. Among others: demand response programs that enable consumers to be active in the energy market, and remote grid monitoring by the Distribution System Operator. In this paper, we analyze the initial provisions of the Third Energy Package and those of the Clean Energy Package, with particular focus on the recently approved directive on common rules for the internal market for electricity and the newly introduced smart meters specifications. We present the highlights of the national cost−benefit analyses for smart metering roll-out, focusing on the decisions made by the Member States with respect... [more]
723. LAPSE:2023.14068
Law and Policy Review on Green Hydrogen Potential in ECOWAS Countries
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: ECOWAS, green economy, green hydrogen, laws and policies, Renewable and Sustainable Energy.
This paper aims to review existing energy-sector and hydrogen-energy-related legal, policy, and strategy documents in the ECOWAS region. To achieve this aim, current renewable-energy-related laws, acts of parliament, executive orders, presidential decrees, administrative orders, and memoranda were analyzed. The study shows that ECOWAS countries have strived to design consistent legal instruments regarding renewable energy in developing comprehensive legislation and bylaws to consolidate it and to encourage investments in renewable energy. Despite all these countries having a legislative basis for regulating renewable energy, there are still weaknesses that revolve around the law and policy regarding its possible application in green hydrogen production and use. The central conclusion of this review paper is that ECOWAS member states presently have no official hydrogen policies nor bylaws in place. The hydrogen rise presents a challenge and opportunity for members to play an important r... [more]
724. LAPSE:2023.13985
Oil and Gas Markets and COVID-19: A Critical Rumination on Drivers, Triggers, and Volatility
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: COVID-19, crude price, futures, OPEC, shale, storage crisis, volatility.
The paper endeavours to explore and analyse some critical issues in the oil and gas market that cropped up around the spread of COVID-19 and tries to identify the key drivers and triggers pertaining therewith. The spread of the first wave that began in March 2020 is crucial because of the global economic downturn that ensued due to lockdown and imposed restrictions coupled with a protracted oil price war that began between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The paper tries to address some key research questions to understand the triggers and drivers around the pandemic. These are: (1) whether the behaviour of OPEC or its key players around the pandemic could be considered uniquely different; (2) what could the triggers be for the increased volatilities that cropped up in both physical and financial markets during the pandemic; (3) what was really different about the oil market crisis around the pandemic that transformed it to an unprecedented storage crisis; (4) what really went wrong with the m... [more]
725. LAPSE:2023.13928
The Casual Nexus between Income and Energy Poverty in EU Member States
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: energy poverty, EU member states, GMM estimator, income poverty, panel causality test, PVAR model.
This paper investigates the presence of a causal relationship between energy poverty and income poverty in the EU Member States through a Panel Vector Autoregressive specification, and controlled with a set of explanatory variables collected from the Eurostat energy database and the OECD environment database for 2007−2018. Deepening the nexus between energy poverty and income poverty is a relevant issue for tailoring policies to tackle poverty and improve the well-being of citizens, supporting the policy makers in the allocation of planned funds provided by the Recovery plan, “Next Generation EU”. The results of the panel VAR model estimation and Dumitrescu and Hurlin test suggest that there will be no change in the long-run equilibrium when income poverty remains constant. Moreover, the reduction in energy poverty is expected to have a positive effect in terms of overall economic poverty reduction. Finally, there is evidence that substituting fossil fuels with renewables helps to redu... [more]
726. LAPSE:2023.13921
Performance Analysis of a Geothermal Radiant Cooling System Supported by Dehumidification
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: dehumidification, Energy Efficiency, Exergy, radiant cooling, thermal comfort.
Space cooling demand is increasing globally due to climate change. Cooling has also been linked to all 17 sustainable development goals of the United Nations. Adequate cooling improves productivity and thermal comfort and can also prevent health risks. Meanwhile, policy initiatives such as the European Union’s Green Deal require participants to cut greenhouse gas emissions and reduce energy use. Therefore, novel cooling systems that are capable of efficiently producing high levels of thermal comfort are needed. Radiant cooling systems provide a design capable of fulfilling these goals, but their application in hot and humid climates is limited due to the risk of condensation. In this study, we compare the performances of radiant cooling systems with and without dehumidification. The studied systems are supplied by geothermal energy. The study is conducted using building energy models of a small office building belonging to a three-building school complex located in Sant Cugat near Barc... [more]
727. LAPSE:2023.13788
Energy Prices Impact on Inflationary Spiral
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: electricity, energy prices, expectations, inflation, monetary policy.
Energy constitutes an essential share of costs across any economy. The percentage of electricity in the overall energy consumption is steadily increasing. This increase, however, is not reflected correctly in the consumption basket relevant for measuring inflation and, therefore, for monetary policy formulation. We argue that the energy mix reflected in inflation should be revised in favour of electricity. We present an analysis of inflationary pressures across Europe and decompose the impact of energy categories on headline inflation. Building on the inflation expectations framework, this study examines the characteristics and magnitude of the current energy price dynamics and quantifies its share in the countries’ effective inflation. Our research also confirms a compelling insight into the country’s energy structure and inflationary pressures when a larger share of renewable electricity sources proves to be associated with lower inflation. Finally, we argue that the energy price sho... [more]
728. LAPSE:2023.13673
Ready for the Road? A Socio-Technical Investigation of Fire Safety Improvement Options for Lithium-Ion Traction Batteries
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: battery safety, development pathways, electrical vehicles, policy, rapid prototyping, socio-technical system, stakeholders.
Battery technology is crucial in the transition towards electric mobility. Lithium-ion batteries are conquering the market but are facing fire safety risks that might threaten further applications. In this study, we address the problem and potential solutions for traction batteries in the European Union area. We do so by taking a unique socio-technical system perspective. Therefore, a novel, mixed-method approach is applied, combining literature review; stakeholder interviews; Failure Mode, Mechanisms, and Event Analysis (FMMEA); and rapid prototyping. Our findings confirm that fire safety is an upcoming concern. Still, most stakeholders lack a full understanding of the problem. Improving safety is a shared responsibility among supply chain and societal stakeholders. For automotive applications, voluntary standard-setting on safety risks is an appropriate tool to improve fire safety, whereas for niche applications, a top-down approach setting regulations seems more suited. For both gro... [more]
729. LAPSE:2023.13636
A Feasibility Study of Developing eLCV Shared Architecture in Taiwan
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: bass diffusion model, eLCV, shared architecture, vehicle electrification.
Vehicle electrification has become an important strategy adopted worldwide, including in Taiwan, as a means to achieving net zero emissions. Taiwan is capable of building a whole light commercial vehicle and has technological strength in producing critical EV parts. This study applies the Bass diffusion model to assess the feasibility of developing eLCV shared architecture in Taiwan and estimates that the annual replacement demand for eLCVs could reach 20,221 units. This exceeds the threshold number of 5000 units, which could motivate the automakers to develop eLCV shared architecture. The simulation result shows that achieving full market penetration would take at least 13 years and would be highly correlated with policy support, the vehicle selling price and the battery pack price. The B2B model is a suitable way of introducing eLCVs into the logistics fleets. In the initial promotion phase, policy support and complementary measures would be needed, e.g., public sectors’ purchases, f... [more]
730. LAPSE:2023.13623
The Current Status and Lost Biogas Production Potential of Kazakhstan from Anaerobic Digestion of Livestock and Poultry Manure
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas, livestock manure, methane, organic matter.
Kazakhstan has large reserves of natural resources, including coal, oil, and natural gas. We hope to replace fossil fuels with renewable sources of energy—particularly renewable natural gas. Thus, Kazakhstan, like other countries, should cut its dependency on coal, oil, and natural gas so as to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. This study, given that Kazakhstan is an agricultural country with a large amount of organic matter, analyzes the potential of biogas production as a source of electricity and heat. Manure from livestock and poultry was chosen as a source of organic matter. The climate of Kazakhstan in most of its territory is sharply continental, with large temperature differences, which affect the process of anaerobic digestion. Consequently, the features of biogas production in cold regions were analyzed, and the calculation shows that the equivalent of 27,723,802 kWh of calorific energy could be obtained from the anaerobic digestion of livestock and poultry manure, whi... [more]
731. LAPSE:2023.13588
Wind Power in Iran: Technical, Policy, and Financial Aspects for Better Energy Resource Management
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: energy policy, feed-in-tariff, financial analysis, Iran, wind power.
Iran is situated in a wind belt. However, the installed wind capacity in Iran is around 300 MW, which is minuscule compared with the global 651 GW capacity as of 2021. Using novel data from wind trackers across Iran, the paper’s findings show immense potential for wind energy in Iran from a technical perspective. While attractive policies are already in place to incentivize wind energy development in Iran, the feed-in tariff (FiT) for wind energy has dropped to around 3 cents per kWh because of the sharp depreciation of the Iranian rial between 2018 and 2020. This paper shows that there is no economic justification for the development of wind farms in Iran at such low FiTs. A minimum FiT of 12 cents per kWh is required to reinvigorate Iran’s wind energy industry investments. Given the extremely tight fiscal space of the Iranian government due to the sanctions and consequently reduced oil exports, the paper argues that a mere 2.14% of Iran’s wasteful fossil fuel subsidies are sufficient... [more]
732. LAPSE:2023.13518
A Semantically Data-Driven Classification Framework for Energy Consumption in Buildings
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: Energy Efficiency, energy performance certificates, energy performance certification, knowledge graphs, near-zero energy buildings, semantic technology.
Encouraged by the European Union, all European countries need to enforce solutions to reduce non-renewable energy consumption in buildings. The reduction of energy (heating, domestic hot water, and appliances consumption) aims for the vision of near-zero energy consumption as a requirement goal for constructing buildings. In this paper, we review the available standards, tools and frameworks on the energy performance of buildings. Additionally, this work investigates if energy performance ratings can be obtained with energy consumption data from IoT devices and if the floor size and energy consumption values are enough to determine a dwellings’ energy performance rating. The essential outcome of this work is a data-driven prediction tool for energy performance labels that can run automatically. The tool is based on the cutting edge kNN classification algorithm and trained on open datasets with actual building data such as those coming from the IoT paradigm. Additionally, it assesses th... [more]
733. LAPSE:2023.13439
Determinants of Electric Cars Purchase Intention in Poland: Personal Attitudes v. Economic Arguments
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: consumer decision making, consumers preferences, cultural factors, delay discounting, e-mobility, economic factors, electric vehicles, electric vehicles market and policy, machine learning methods, purchase intention, social values, Sustainability.
Urban e-mobility, seen as a part of complex and multidimensional European Green Deal plan, is essential for cities. However, it cannot be implemented without a common social commitment accompanied by a shared, strong belief in its advantages. Even if urban authorities and central governments would encourage their citizens to buy or share an electric vehicle (EV), the shift to EV will not be significant without people convinced that the idea of becoming zero-emission is economically viable and rational to them privately. This is especially true and important in countries like Poland—which is classified as an “EV readiness straggler”. The main purpose of this study is to develop a robust forecasting model with the aid of advanced machine learning methods. Based on the survey conducted, we identified factors useful for predicting consumer behaviour in terms of willingness to purchase an EV. The proposed machine-learning tool (specifically, the Random Forest algorithm) will allow automotiv... [more]
734. LAPSE:2023.13426
Grey Correlation Analysis of Transportation Carbon Emissions under the Background of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: 3D grey correlation degree, carbon peak and carbon neutrality (double carbon), low carbon pilot provinces, transportation carbon emissions (abbreviated as TCE).
Transportation carbon emission reduction has become an important driving point for China to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Based on the three-dimensional grey correlation analysis model, taking the five factors affecting transportation carbon emissions, namely, population, GDP, tertiary industry, energy structure and logistics scale, as the research object, the transportation carbon emissions of China’s low-carbon pilot and nonpilot provinces from 2010 to 2019 are calculated based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission accounting method. The time series grey correlation degree and regional grey correlation degree of each influencing factor and traffic carbon emission are obtained using the provincial data, so as to provide policy suggestions for China to achieve the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutrality” in the field of transportation. The results show that the descending order of the five influencing factors on transportation carbon em... [more]
735. LAPSE:2023.13413
Reflection of the EU Climate Policy Strategic Narrative in the Programmes of Latvian Political Parties—External Convergence and Influence on Shaping Public Opinion
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: climate change, climate policy, narrative of political parties, shaping public opinion, strategic narrative.
Climate change, as well as the challenges that come with it, is one of the main issues in international and national politics today. Addressing the threats posed by climate change requires close cooperation at the international level and within each country, creating a dialogue between the political elite and society, thus promoting a common understanding and action across the European Union (EU). The aim of this research is to (1) identify what climate policy narratives are projected to the Latvian electorate (public) and (2) assess how these narratives are aligned with the EU-defined strategic climate policy narrative. The theoretical basis and methodological approach of the study is based on the concept of strategic narrative. It is assumed that the viability and impact of a strategic narrative is enhanced when there is coherence between all stages of the narrative life cycle (i.e., the EU level and the national policy level). The empirical basis of the study is based on the identif... [more]
736. LAPSE:2023.13404
The Impact of Training on Beef Cattle Farmers’ Installation of Biogas Digesters
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: beef cattle, biogas digesters, manure management, training.
Anaerobic digestion is one of the leading ways to manage livestock manure for energy production and move towards the target of carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector. Based on field survey data from China, a binary probit model and the propensity score matching method are employed to empirically examine the impact of agricultural training on livestock farmers’ installation of biogas digesters to manage livestock manure. The survey results show that beef cattle farmers in our study area are reluctant to install biogas digesters and the actual installation ratio of farmers is much lower than that that is willing to install. On the contrary, the beef cattle farmers are enthusiastic to participate in training (e.g., policy-oriented, technology-oriented, and field-based) related to sustainable farming practices. Regression results suggest that training can effectively promote the installation of biogas digesters, and with the increase of training intensity, the probability to install... [more]
737. LAPSE:2023.13386
The Effect of the Swiss CO2 Levy on Heating Fuel Demand of Private Real Estate Owners
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: carbon tax, energy consumption, Fossil Fuel, household panel, policy evaluation, price elasticity, pseudo-panel, Switzerland, tax elasticity.
To effectively mitigate climate change, it is crucial to better understand the reaction of fossil-fuel demand to price and tax changes, and more precisely to climate policy instruments such as a carbon levy. The Swiss CO2 levy on heating fuels was introduced in 2008 at CHF 12/tCO2eq, and was increased steadily up to CHF 84/tCO2eq during the period of 2016/2017. This paper investigated the effectiveness of the levy as an instrument to reduce heating fuel demand, and hence carbon emissions, of private real estate owners. The Swiss Household Budget Survey 2006−2017 constituted the main data source. Before−after and pseudo-panel regressions were used to capture the CO2 levy’s effects, and a large set of household characteristics, as well as climatic conditions, were controlled for. No significant effects in the first two policy periods of 2008−2013 were found. Over the period of 2014−2017, a significant reduction in house owners’ heating fuel demand of up to 14% with respect to 2006−2007 w... [more]
738. LAPSE:2023.13354
Domestic Energy Efficiency Scenarios for Northern Ireland
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: building fabric, domestic, Energy Efficiency, Northern Ireland, retrofit.
Building fabric retrofitting is an important first step in improving building energy efficiency. The United Kingdom’s (UK) housing stock is one of the most inefficient in Europe, and Northern Ireland has the second-highest level of fuel poverty in the UK. This Northern Irish case study developed three fabric retrofit scenarios that estimate potential demand reductions, CO2 emissions removals and retrofit costs. The first scenario reduces domestic demand by 10% and removes 6% of domestic emissions. The second scenario is more ambitious than the first, and results in an 18% reduction in demand and 12% of emissions removed. The third scenario proposes fabric retrofitting to PassivHaus standard and results in a 42% reduction in demand and 27% of emissions removed. Furthermore, retrofit schemes can provide up to approximately 350,000 jobs annually between 2022 and 2050 for the Northern Irish population. This study demonstrates how fabric retrofit scenarios can be streamlined to the unique f... [more]
739. LAPSE:2023.13346
A Hybrid MCDM Model for Evaluating the Market-Oriented Business Regulatory Risk of Power Grid Enterprises Based on the Bayesian Best-Worst Method and MARCOS Approach
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: Bayesian best-worst method, MARCOS approach, market-oriented business, regulatory risk.
As a result of the deepening of China’s power system reform, the market-oriented business development of power grid enterprises is in full swing. However, most of the existing research has focused on the regulatory risks of the regulatory business for power grid enterprises, while ignoring the regulatory risks faced by market-oriented businesses. In order to promote the sustainable development of market-oriented business, a comprehensive regulatory risk assessment framework was constructed for the market business of power grid enterprises. First, the risk assessment index system was constructed from the perspectives of policy risk, business isolation risk, market risk, and safety risk. Then, a novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model based on the Bayesian best-worst method and the measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution approach, was adopted. Finally, eight market-oriented businesses were selected as case studies. The result indicates t... [more]
740. LAPSE:2023.13263
A Panel Data Approach towards the Effectiveness of Energy Policies in Fostering the Implementation of Solar Photovoltaic Technology: Empirical Evidence for Asia-Pacific
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: Asia-Pacific, policy effectiveness, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, Solar Photovoltaic.
Today, the growing Asia-Pacific population causes a dramatic growth in energy supply to meet energy demand. The rapid rise in energy demand is causing concern in the region. Thus, the present study scrutinizes the effect of energy policy involvement in steering-up renewable energy development by empirically assessing the role of policy instruments in encouraging residential-scale and commercial-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems. The analysis is performed using a fixed effects estimator on a selected range of policy approaches (market-pull policies and tax incentives) and a technology-push policy (capital grants) in selected Asia-Pacific countries between 1998 and 2015. The return on investment is estimated to measure the incentives of feed-in tariff (FIT) tariff policies for both residential-scale and commercial-scale PV systems. This study has shown the importance of a strategic combination between technology-push and market-pull policies as complementary to adopting technology and incr... [more]
741. LAPSE:2023.13260
The Impact of the Income Gap on Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: carbon emissions, carbon neutrality, economic growth, income gap.
The income gap and global warming have always been topics of common concern to scholars worldwide. Internationally, there is no consensus yet about the impact of the income gap on carbon emissions, and there are few studies about that in China. To explore the effect of the income gap on carbon emissions at the provincial level in China, this paper first theoretically and qualitatively analyzes the non-linear impact of the income gap on carbon emissions. Then, the Gini coefficient of the resident income of different regions in China from 2010 to 2019 is calculated. Finally, a threshold regression model is used to quantitatively test the existence of a threshold effect between the income gap and carbon emission intensity in China. The threshold value is the per capita disposable income of residents. The results show that the income gap is positively related to carbon emission intensity in poor regions. In high-income areas, the widening income gap inhibits the increase in carbon emission... [more]
742. LAPSE:2023.13251
Energy Transition Pathways for Deep Decarbonization of the Greater Montreal Region: An Energy Optimization Framework
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: bottom–up energy model, cities, deep decarbonization, energy policy, ETEM.
More than half of the world’s population live in cities, and by 2050, it is expected that this proportion will reach almost 68%. These densely populated cities consume more than 75% of the world’s primary energy and are responsible for the emission of around 70% of anthropogenic carbon. Providing sustainable energy for the growing demand in cities requires multifaceted planning approach. In this study, we modeled the energy system of the Greater Montreal region to evaluate the impact of different environmental mitigation policies on the energy system of this region over a long-term period (2020−2050). In doing so, we have used the open-source optimization-based model called the Energy−Technology−Environment Model (ETEM). The ETEM is a long-term bottom−up energy model that provides insight into the best options for cities to procure energy, and satisfies useful demands while reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Results show that, under a deep decarbonization scenario, the transporta... [more]
743. LAPSE:2023.13245
Expectations for Coal Demand in Response to Evolving Carbon Policy and Climate Change Awareness
March 1, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: carbon capture and storage, Coal, decarbonization, energy matrix, fossil fuels, greenhouse gas emissions.
Increasing awareness of climate change has induced demand for action most notably. As public demand for action on climate change increases, conversion to energy sources with lower greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity will accelerate. Experience during the COVID-19 pandemic provided insight into how atmospheric conditions will respond to lower GHG emissions. A low-carbon future will require decarbonization of the energy supply mix for electrical production and industrial processes. Coal demand likely will decrease more rapidly than other fossil energy sources, replaced by natural gas and renewable energy sources that have lower GHG intensity and that will be available readily and economically. This decline will accelerate as China focuses on its carbon neutrality goals, the U.S. re-engages in the Paris Agreement, and India moves to a lower carbon future. However, perturbations in the decline will inevitably occur in response to global issues (e.g., pandemic, military conflict). Carbon capture... [more]
744. LAPSE:2023.13210
ADRC Control System of PMLSM Based on Novel Non-Singular Terminal Sliding Mode Observer
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: active disturbance rejection control policy, non-singular terminal sliding mode observer, permanent magnet synchronous linear motor, tracking differentiator.
In an attempt to solve the problem of the many parameters of the traditional active disturbance rejection controller (ADRC) and to accurately estimate the mover position and speed required by a permanent magnet synchronous linear motor (PMLSM) system, an improved ADRC and a novel nonsingular fast terminal sliding mode observer (NFTSMO) are proposed. Firstly, the traditional first-order ADRC is simplified, the tracking differentiator (TD) module is removed, and the direct error is used to replace the nonlinear function in the extended state observer (ESO) and nonlinear state error feedback (NLSEF) module. Based on the traditional NFTSMO, the smooth back electromotive force (EMF) is obtained by adding the TD to reduce the phase delay caused by the low-pass filter in the traditional sliding mode observer (SMO), and the actuator position and speed information are modulated from the observed back EMF based on the principle of a phase-locked loop (PLL). Simulation and experiments show that t... [more]
745. LAPSE:2023.13202
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: Empirical Evidence from Multivariate DCC-GARCH Models
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: crude oil price, economic policy uncertainty, multivariate DCC-GARCH models, natural gas price.
Crude oil and natural gas are crucial to the Russian economy. Therefore, this study examined the interconnections between crude oil price, natural gas price, and Russian economic policy uncertainty (EPU) over the period 1994−2019 using multivariate DCC-MGARCH models. The findings show that there are strong interconnections (co-movement) between the energy prices and EPU in Russia, and that it might be misleading to assume independence or neutrality between the variables. Although Russia is also a crucial player in both the natural gas and the crude oil markets, this study reveals that there is a stronger co-movement of the EPU with gas price than with the oil price. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest producer; it is plausible that the natural gas price correlates with EPU more than the crude oil price. Further, the correlation between gas price and EPU and the correlation between crude oil price and EPU have similar patterns. Each declines almost in th... [more]
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