LAPSE:2023.13202
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.13202
Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: Empirical Evidence from Multivariate DCC-GARCH Models
Salim Hamza Ringim, Abdulkareem Alhassan, Hasan Güngör, Festus Victor Bekun
February 28, 2023
Crude oil and natural gas are crucial to the Russian economy. Therefore, this study examined the interconnections between crude oil price, natural gas price, and Russian economic policy uncertainty (EPU) over the period 1994−2019 using multivariate DCC-MGARCH models. The findings show that there are strong interconnections (co-movement) between the energy prices and EPU in Russia, and that it might be misleading to assume independence or neutrality between the variables. Although Russia is also a crucial player in both the natural gas and the crude oil markets, this study reveals that there is a stronger co-movement of the EPU with gas price than with the oil price. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest producer; it is plausible that the natural gas price correlates with EPU more than the crude oil price. Further, the correlation between gas price and EPU and the correlation between crude oil price and EPU have similar patterns. Each declines almost in the same period and, equally, increases concurrently. In addition, the results revealed that significant global shocks and crises, such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2014−2017 Russian financial crisis, the 9/11 terrorist attack, and the Russo−Ukrainian conflicts, influence the interconnections between the energy prices and Russian EPU.
Keywords
crude oil price, economic policy uncertainty, multivariate DCC-GARCH models, natural gas price
Suggested Citation
Ringim SH, Alhassan A, Güngör H, Bekun FV. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Energy Prices: Empirical Evidence from Multivariate DCC-GARCH Models. (2023). LAPSE:2023.13202
Author Affiliations
Ringim SH: Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Via Mersin 10, Famagusta 99628, Turkey
Alhassan A: Department of Economics, Federal University of Lafia, Lafia 950101, Nigeria [ORCID]
Güngör H: Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University, Via Mersin 10, Famagusta 99628, Turkey
Bekun FV: Faculty of Economics Administrative and Social Sciences, Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul 34310, Turkey; Department of Economic Security, South Ural State University, 76, Lenin Aven., 454080 Chelyabinsk, Russia; Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The [ORCID]
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
10
First Page
3712
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-05-18
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
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PII: en15103712, Publication Type: Journal Article
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LAPSE:2023.13202
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doi:10.3390/en15103712
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Feb 28, 2023
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