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Records Added in February 2023
Records added in February 2023
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76. LAPSE:2023.13151
Recent Progress in Conjugated Conducting and Semiconducting Polymers for Energy Devices
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: conducting polymers, energy device, nanostructure, PEDOT
Advanced conductors (such as conducting and semiconducting polymers) are vital building blocks for modern technologies and biocompatible devices as faster computing and smaller device sizes are demanded. Conjugated conducting and semiconducting polymers (including poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT), polyaniline (PANI), polythiophene (PTh), and polypyrrole (PPy)) provide the mechanical flexibility required for the next generation of energy and electronic devices. Electrical conductivity, ionic conductivity, and optoelectronic characteristics of advanced conductors are governed by their texture and constituent nanostructures. Thus, precise textural and nanostructural engineering of advanced conjugated conducting and semiconducting polymers provide an outstanding pathway to facilitate their adoption in various technological applications, including but not limited to energy storage and harvesting devices, flexible optoelectronics, bio-functional materials, and wearable electronics. T... [more]
77. LAPSE:2023.13150
Assessing the Potential of Implementing a Solar-Based Distributed Energy System for a University Using the Campus Bus Stops
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: decarbonisation, distributed energy system, energy retrofit, solar energy, university
Large educational facilities hold great potential for the implementation of solar-based distributed energy systems. The aim of this paper is to present a prototype and an assessment of a solar-based bus shelter photovoltaic system intended to be implemented at a campus scale that serves as an energy-distributed system. The National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), a campus with an area of 7.3 km2 and bus stops’ roof area availability of around 1100 m2 was selected as a case study. The proposed system, apart from considering on-site generation, also considers an increase in end-use services such as the installation of television screens for information, charging docks, surveillance cameras, internet service, and lighting. For the assessment, a load facility survey and an estimation of the baseline energy use was conducted based on two demand use conditions, corresponding to 12 and 24 h for different archetypical stations. It was found that the baseline annual energy consumption f... [more]
78. LAPSE:2023.13149
Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on the CEEMDAN-Sample Entropy-BPNN-Transformer
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: BPNN, CEEMDAN, load forecasting, sample entropy, transformer
Aiming at the problem that power load data are stochastic and that it is difficult to obtain accurate forecasting results by a single algorithm, in this paper, a combined forecasting method for short-term power load was proposed based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN)-sample entropy (SE), the BP neural network (BPNN), and the Transformer model. Firstly, the power load data were decomposed into several power load subsequences with obvious complexity differences by using the CEEMDAN-SE. Then, BPNN and Transformer model were used to forecast the subsequences with low complexity and the subsequences with high complexity, respectively. Finally, the forecasting results of each subsequence were superimposed to obtain the final forecasting result. The simulation was taken from our proposed model and six forecasting models by using the load dataset from a certain area of Spain. The results showed that the MAPE of our proposed CEEMDAN-SE-BPNN-Tra... [more]
79. LAPSE:2023.13148
Design of a Smart Distribution Panelboard Using IoT Connectivity and Machine Learning Techniques
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: distribution panelboard, ICT, IoT, Machine Learning, smart grid, smart meters
Electric load management through continuous monitoring and intelligent controlling has become a pressing requirement, particularly in light of rising electrical energy costs. The main purpose of this work is to realize a low-voltage electrical distribution panelboard that allows for real-time load monitoring and that provides a load forecasting feature at the household level. In this regard, we demonstrate the design and the implementation details of an IoT-enabled panelboard with smart features. An IoT dashboard was used to display the most significant information in terms of voltage, current, real power, reactive power, apparent power, power factor, and energy consumption. Additionally, the panel system offers visualization capabilities that were integrated into a cloud-based machine learning modeling. Among several algorithms used, the Gaussian SVM regression exhibited the best training and validation results for the load forecasting feature. It is possible for the proposed design t... [more]
80. LAPSE:2023.13147
Disturbance Observer-Based Model Predictive Super-Twisting Control for Soft Open Point
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: model predictive control (MPC), parameter mismatch, sliding-mode observer, Soft Open Point (SOP), super-twisting algorithm
This paper presents a disturbance observer-based model predictive of super-twisting control for Soft Open Point (SOP). First, with the consideration of the disturbances caused by parameter mismatches and unmodelled dynamics, a super-twisting sliding-mode observer (STO) is proposed to observe the disturbances, and the observed disturbances are introduced into the inner-loop as the compensation to improve the anti-disturbance of SOP system. Second, the outer-loop controller is designed by applying the super-twisting sliding-mode control (STC) approach to improve the dynamic performance and robustness. Third, to deal with large current harmonics by traditional model predictive control (MPC), a Three-Vector-based MPC (TV-MPC) is proposed to increase the number of voltage vectors in a sampling time. Finally, it is verified by simulations that the proposed method can reduce current harmonics, DC-side voltage setting time and improve the dynamic performance of SOP system effectively. In case... [more]
81. LAPSE:2023.13146
A Holistic Consideration of Megawatt Electrolysis as a Key Component of Sector Coupling
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: coupling of energy-related technologies, large-scale test facility, living lab, megawatt electrolysis system, PEM electrolyzers, renewable electricity, simulation platform, water splitting
In the future, hydrogen (H2) will play a significant role in the sustainable supply of energy and raw materials to various sectors. Therefore, the electrolysis of water required for industrial-scale H2 production represents a key component in the generation of renewable electricity. Within the scope of fundamental research work on cell components for polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzers and application-oriented living labs, an MW electrolysis system was used to further improve industrial-scale electrolysis technology in terms of its basic structure and systems-related integration. The planning of this work, as well as the analytical and technical approaches taken, along with the essential results of research and development are presented herein. The focus of this study is the test facility for a megawatt PEM electrolysis stack with the presentation of the design, processing, and assembly of the main components of the facility and stack.
82. LAPSE:2023.13145
Luenberger Observer-Based Microgrid Control Strategy for Mixed Load Conditions
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: droop control, harmonic power-sharing, low-voltage microgrid, Luenberger observer, power quality, virtual impedance
In this paper, a Luenberger observer-based microgrid control strategy is proposed to enhance the power quality of microgrids, when the grid loads are mixed and strongly non-linear. To improve performance under this condition, a Luenberger observer is designed for three phase power grids. On the basis of the observer, the components of different frequencies and sequences of voltages and currents are obtained accurately. The virtual impedance of different frequencies and sequences is designed, which makes the equivalent line impedance meet the power-sharing condition, reducing the fundamental negative sequence voltages and harmonic voltages. The active power droop equation, meanwhile, is proposed, where the bus voltage is modified. The value range of virtual impedance is discussed in the complex frequency domain. The proposed control strategy does not require any communication lines, so the hardware structure is simplified. The simulations and experiments are provided to verify the effec... [more]
83. LAPSE:2023.13144
Reactive Power and Voltage Optimization of New-Energy Grid Based on the Improved Flower Pollination Algorithm
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: dynamic reactive power margin, improved FPA, new-energy grid, reactive power voltage control, tournament selection mechanism
In order to solve the reactive power and voltage control problem caused by the high proportion of new energy connected to the power grid, this paper takes the minimum voltage deviation, minimum network loss and maximum dynamic reactive power margin of the whole system as the comprehensive optimization objectives and establishes a reactive power and voltage optimization model by considering the reactive power regulation ability of SVC (Static Var Compensator) and new energy units. In view of the continuous and discrete variables in the model, the traditional continuous FPA (Flower Pollination Algorithm) is discretized to form an improved continuous-discrete hybrid FPA, and the tournament selection mechanism is adopted to speed up the convergence. Through the example analysis of the IEEE-39 bus system, the feasibility of the proposed reactive power and voltage optimal control method in the new energy grid is verified. Compared with GA (Genetic Algorithm), the results show that the improv... [more]
84. LAPSE:2023.13143
A Comparative Assessment on Different Aspects of the Non-Linear Instability Dynamics of Supercritical Fluid in Parallel Channel Systems
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Hopf bifurcation, Ledinegg instability, non-linear stability analysis, nuclear reactor, supercritical fluid
The thermal-hydraulic behavior of supercritical water reactors with a parallel channel configuration was examined through a non-linear instability analysis. This analysis was performed under wide-ranging conditions and aspects, including different working supercritical fluids, varied heat-flux and flow-rate conditions, and channel inclinations. The supercritical fluid (SCFs) dynamics were captured using the density, enthalpy, and velocity analytical approximation functions. The major findings show that both SCFs (water and carbon dioxide) experienced density wave oscillations at a low pseudo-subcooling number. Static instability characteristics were observed for supercritical water, at a relatively high subcooling number. Further, it was found that at different heat flux, the hotter channel makes the overall system more unstable, whereas, at equal heat flux, parallel channels perform similar to a single-channel system. However, the effect of the inclination angle was found to be neglig... [more]
85. LAPSE:2023.13142
Stackelberg-Game-Based Demand Response for Voltage Regulation in Distribution Network with High Penetration of Electric Vehicles
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: demand response, flexible load, Genetic Algorithm, Stackelberg game, voltage control
With the development of the economy, electricity demand continues to increase, and the time for electricity consumption is concentrated, which leads to increasing pressure on the voltage regulation of the distribution network. For example, a large number of electric vehicles charging during a low-price period may cause the problem of under-voltage of the distribution network. On the other hand, the penetration of distributed power generation of renewable energy may cause over-voltage problems in the distribution network. This study proposes a Stackelberg game model between the distribution system operator and the load aggregator. In the Stackelberg game model, the distribution system operator affects the users’ electricity consumption time by issuing subsidies to decrease the frequency of voltage violations. As the representative of users, the load aggregator helps the users schedule the demand during the subsidized period to maximize profits. Case studies are carried out on the IEEE 3... [more]
86. LAPSE:2023.13141
Proposal of Multidimensional Data Driven Decomposition Method for Fault Identification of Large Turbomachinery
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: Differential Evolution, Genetic Algorithms, large turbomachinery, signal decomposition, vibration analysis
High-power turbomachines are equipped with flexible rotors and journal bearings and operate above their first and sometimes even second critical speed. The transient response of such a system is complex but can provide valuable information about the dynamic state and potential malfunctions. However, due to the high complexity of the signal and the nonlinearity of the system response, the analysis of transients is a highly complex process that requires expert knowledge in diagnostics, machine dynamics, and extensive experience. The article proposes the Multidimensional Data Driven Decomposition (MD3) method, which allows decomposing a complex transient into several simpler, easier to analyze functions. These functions have physical meaning. Thus, the method belongs to the Explainable Artificial Intelligence area. The MD3 method proposes three scenarios and chooses the best based on the MSE quality index. The approach was first verified on a test rig and then validated on data from a rea... [more]
87. LAPSE:2023.13140
Does the Responsibility System for Environmental Protection Targets Enhance Corporate High-Quality Development in China?
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: corporate high-quality development, difference-in-differences method, energy-intensive firms, environmental regulations, responsibility system for environmental protection targets
In 2017, China made an ambitious statement of high-quality development (HQD) with which to realize the goals of sustainability proposed by the United Nations. Our paper sheds new light on how the corporate high-quality development is affected by the responsibility system for environmental protection targets using a sample of energy-intensive firms from 2003 to 2018. We calculate the indexes for corporate high-quality development using entropy weighting for the five dimensions: efficiency, innovation, openness, greenness, and social responsibility. Then, we develop a difference-in-differences model to reveal that the responsibility system for environmental protection targets significantly dampens high-quality development of corporations, as the estimated coefficient is −0.0420 with a t-statistic of −2.9384. In contrast with private firms, the high-quality development of state-owned firms shows no significant correlation with environmental policy constraints. The efficiency of capital al... [more]
88. LAPSE:2023.13139
Combating Energy Poverty in the Face of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Global Economic Uncertainty
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: COVID-19, economic uncertainty, energy policy, energy poverty, policy measures
The effects of the global COVID-19 pandemic on the energy sector and the economy as a whole are being followed by the global energy crisis, which has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The situation is particularly difficult for European countries, which are heavily dependent on imported energy from Russia. In the face of such economic uncertainty, it is necessary to analyze and assess the energy poverty situation in the region. The article overviews the extent of energy poverty among European Union (EU) countries and determines regional differences by comparing the situation, trends and policy measures applied, followed by the challenges and opportunities to combat energy poverty among households during the global COVID-19 crisis and economic uncertainty. A scientific literature review was performed and the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the energy poverty of households was identified. Moreover, a set of indicators reflecting the extent of energy poverty in different EU count... [more]
89. LAPSE:2023.13138
Determining the Optimal Directions of Investment in Regional Renewable Energy Development
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: household, investment, Optimization, preferential financing, region, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, sustainable development
The growth of renewable energy facilities worldwide creates new challenges for sustainable regional development. Unregulated investment flows in the green energy sector cause disparities in the deployment of various renewable energy technologies, worsen the ability to balance national energy systems, etc. This article is the first comprehensive study that offers a methodology for multifactor modeling of investment flows in regional green energy deployment considering the priorities of national, regional, and local authorities within the sustainable development concept. The proposed methodological approaches help (1) determine the types of renewable energy technologies for priority development in the region, (2) select specific green energy projects to receive budgetary support on territories, and (3) form the optimal mechanism for budget financing distribution on regional development of renewable energy technologies. The modeling factors include natural conditions and resource base of... [more]
90. LAPSE:2023.13137
An LPV-Based Online Reconfigurable Adaptive Semi-Active Suspension Control with MR Damper
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: adaptive control, adaptive semi-active suspension control, linear parameter varying (LPV), MR damper, reconfigurable control, semi-active suspension control
This study introduces an online reconfigurable road-adaptive semi-active suspension controller that reaches the performance objectives with satisfying the dissipativity constraint. The concept of the model is based on a nonlinear static model of the semi-active Magnetorheological (MR) damper with considering the bi-viscous and hysteretic behaviors of the damper. The input saturation problem has been solved by using the proposed method in the literature that allows the integration of the saturation actuator in the initial system to create a Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) system. The control input meets the saturation constraint; therewith, the dissipativity constraint is fulfilled. The online reconfiguration and adaptivity problem is solved by using an external scheduling variable that allows the trade-off between driving comfort and road holding/stability. The control design is based on the LPV framework. The proposed adaptive semi-active suspension controller is compared to passive su... [more]
91. LAPSE:2023.13136
Structural and Operating Features of the Creation of an Interstate Electric Power Interconnection in North-East Asia with Large-Scale Penetration of Renewables
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: carbon emission, optimization model, prospective power grid, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, tax
Transition to green energy is the dominant process in the electricity sector globally, including in North-East Asia (NEA). The interstate power grid expansion in the NEA will facilitate the large-scale development of intermittent and uncertain green generation. This paper is aimed at considering the structural and operating features and effectiveness of a potential NEA power grid with large-scale penetration of renewables. A computing and geo-information system provides collection, processing, storage, and geo-visualization of technical and economic data. It incorporates a mathematical model for the optimization of the expansion and operation of power systems. Benefits (including saving the capacity, investment, fuel cost, and total cost) of power interconnection have been estimated in the study. Transfer capability required for the interstate electric ties was calculated and proved quite significant. A tax on greenhouse gases emission from thermal power plants, including carbon dioxid... [more]
92. LAPSE:2023.13135
Predicting Electricity Imbalance Prices and Volumes: Capabilities and Opportunities
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Management
Keywords: balancing market, electricity price forecasting, imbalance, probabilistic forecasting, real-time market
Electricity imbalance pricing provides the ultimate incentive for generators and suppliers to contract with one another ahead of time and deliver against their obligations. As delivery time approaches, traders must judge whether to trade-out a position or settle it in the balancing market at the as-yet-unknown imbalance price. Forecasting the imbalance price (and related volumes) is therefore a necessity in short-term markets. However, this topic has received surprisingly little attention in the academic literature despite clear need by practitioners. Furthermore, the emergence of algorithmic trading demands automated forecasting and decision-making, with those best able to extract predictive information from available data gaining a competitive advantage. Here we present the case for developing imbalance price forecasting methods and provide motivating examples from the Great Britain’s balancing market, demonstrating forecast skill and value.
93. LAPSE:2023.13134
Improving the Maximum Power Extraction from Wind Turbines Using a Second-Generation CRONE Controller
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: backstepping controller (BS), DFIG, fuzzy logic controller (FLC), MPPT, second-generation CRONE controller, sliding mode controller (SMC), WECS
Developing precise and robust algorithms that can help in obtaining maximum power yield in a variable speed wind turbine is an important area of research in wind engineering. The present manuscript proposes a technique that utilizes a second-generation CRONE controller for the maximum power tracking technique (MPPT) to maximize power generation in a wind energy conversion system (WECS) based on a double-fed induction generator (DFIG). The authors propose this novel method because the classical controllers cannot provide adequate performance in terms of extracting the maximum energy from variable speed wind turbines when applying a real wind profile and they cannot guarantee the high stability of the WECS. Moreover, this novel controller sufficiently handles problems related to the control effort level. The performance of the second-generation CRONE method was mathematically modeled using MATLAB/Simulink and compared with four other types of MPPT control techniques, which include a prop... [more]
94. LAPSE:2023.13133
Effects of Degradation in Textolite Elements of Damaged Surge Arresters
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: discharge (short circuit) current, EDS method, surge arrester, TSE glass textolite
The aim of this work was to investigate the effects of the currents flowing through surge arresters on the internal insulating textolite structure. The samples were removed from high-voltage arresters that were taken out of service due to malfunction or failure. Discharge (short-circuit) currents of diverse intensities and durations caused degradation effects of varying degrees of advancement in the material of the tested elements. The samples were examined using microscopic methods. The use of the microanalysis technique EDS (energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy) made it possible to register changes in the elemental composition of the surface layer of the textolite materials, along with the intensification of the degradation effects. It was found that the high discharge current flows were subject to melting, charring and even burning of the organic adhesive. These effects caused serious changes in the content of elements in the top layer of the textolite and were the cause of a reduct... [more]
95. LAPSE:2023.13132
A Bi-Objective Sustainable Supply Chain Redesign: What Effect Does Energy Availability Have on Redesign?
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: augmented ε-constraint, bi-objective, matheuristic, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, supply chain network redesign
During supply chain redesign processes, many environmental initiatives at facilities and their surrounding regions are affected by the closing, opening, or even broadening of facilities. These initiatives may be about the surplus renewable energies that the facility generates for its region, the renewable energy sources that are available in the area for the facility, or the ecological relationships between facilities and their surrounding regions in general. The implications of these ecological relationships for the supply chain redesign problem were considered in this study in order to minimize the negative outcomes while minimizing the process’s related expenses. Thus, to minimize the unwanted effects, an objective function is defined in addition to the cost objective, which results in a bi-objective problem. Although small cases can be solved by exact methods such as AUGMECON, for larger scales, a matheuristic algorithm needs to be developed. The efficiency of the developed algorit... [more]
96. LAPSE:2023.13131
Source-Load Coordinated Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Electric-Gas Integrated Energy System Based on Carbon Emission Flow Theory
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: carbon emission flow, demand response, integrated energy system, ladder-type carbon price, low-carbon economic dispatch, Shapley value
The development of emerging technologies has enhanced the demand response (DR) capability of conventional loads. To study the effect of DR on the reduction in carbon emissions in an integrated energy system (IES), a two-stage low-carbon economic dispatch model based on the carbon emission flow (CEF) theory was proposed in this study. In the first stage, the energy supply cost was taken as the objective function for economic dispatch, and the actual carbon emissions of each energy hub (EH) were calculated based on the CEF theory. In the second stage, a low-carbon DR optimization was performed with the objective function of the load-side carbon trading cost. Then, based on the modified IEEE 39-bus power system/Belgian 20-node natural gas system, MATLAB/Gurobi was used for the simulation analysis in three scenarios. The results showed that the proposed model could effectively promote the system to reduce the load peak-to-valley difference, enhance the ability to consume wind power, and re... [more]
97. LAPSE:2023.13130
Physicochemical Characterization of Phase Change Materials for Industrial Waste Heat Recovery Applications
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: corrosion, industrial waste heat, phase change materials, thermal characterization
The recovery and storage of process heat in industrial applications are some of the key factors to improve the sustainability and reliability of high temperature applications. In this sense, one of the main drawbacks is focused on the selection of proper thermal energy storage (TES) materials. This paper performs a full characterization of four phase change storage materials (PCM), KOH, LiOH, NaNO3 and KNO3, which are proposed for storage applications between 270 and 500 °C, according to the results obtained through differential scanning calorimeter and thermogravimetric analysis. One of the main innovations includes the corrosive evaluation of these materials in a promising alumina forming alloy (OC4), close to their corresponding phase change temperature during 500 h. The physicochemical properties obtained confirm the optimal use of NaNO3 and KNO3 and recommend the use, with caution, of KOH, due to its higher corrosive potential. FeCr2O4, NiCr2O4 and FeAl2O4 were the main protective... [more]
98. LAPSE:2023.13129
Flexibility Quantification and the Potential for Its Usage in the Case of Electric Bus Depots with Unidirectional Charging
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Operations
Keywords: centralized depot charging, charging management, electric buses, flexibility quantification, flexibility usage
One of the crucial steps for a successful integration of electric bus fleets into the existing electric power systems is the active and intelligent usage of their flexibility. This is important not only for reducing the eventual negative effects on the power grid but also for reducing energy and infrastructure costs. The first step in the optimal usage of flexibility is its quantification, which allows the maximum provision of flexibility without any negative effects for the fleet operation. This paper explores the available flexibility of large-scale electric bus fleets with a concept of centralized and unidirectional depot charging. An assessment of available positive and negative flexibility was conducted based on the data from two real bus depots in the city of Hamburg, Germany. The analysis shows the biggest flexibility potential was in the period from 16:00 h to 24:00 h, and the smallest one was in the periods from 08:00 h to 16:00 h, as well as from 02:00 h to 08:00 h. The paper... [more]
99. LAPSE:2023.13128
Marine Exhaust Gas Treatment Systems for Compliance with the IMO 2020 Global Sulfur Cap and Tier III NOx Limits: A Review
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: exhaust gas treatment systems, IMO 2020 global sulfur cap: IMO NOx Tier II/III limits, scrubbers, selective catalytic reduction (SCR)
In the present work, the contemporary exhaust gas treatment systems (EGTS) used for SOx, PM, and NOx emission mitigation from shipping are reviewed. Specifically, after-treatment technologies such as wet scrubbers with seawater and freshwater solution with NaOH, hybrid wet scrubbers, wet scrubbers integrated in exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) installations, dry scrubbers, inert gas wet scrubbers and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) systems are analyzed. The operational principles and the construction specifications, the performance characteristics and the investment and operation of the reviewed shipping EGTS are thoroughly elaborated. The SCR technology is comparatively evaluated with alternative techniques such as LNG, internal engine modifications (IEM), direct water injection (DWI) and humid air motor (HAM) to assess the individual NOx emission reduction potential of each technology. Detailed real data for the time several cargo vessels spent in shipyards for seawater scrubber i... [more]
100. LAPSE:2023.13127
ReNFuzz-LF: A Recurrent Neurofuzzy System for Short-Term Load Forecasting
February 28, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: electric load forecasting, internal feedback, neurofuzzy model, recurrent neural network
A neurofuzzy system is proposed for short-term electric load forecasting. The fuzzy rule base of ReNFuzz-LF consists of rules with dynamic consequent parts that are small-scale recurrent neural networks with one hidden layer, whose neurons have local output feedback. The particular representation maintains the local learning nature of the typical static fuzzy model, since the dynamic consequent parts of the fuzzy rules can be considered as subsystems operating at the subspaces defined by the fuzzy premise parts, and they are interconnected through the defuzzification part. The Greek power system is examined, and hourly based predictions are extracted for the whole year. The recurrent nature of the forecaster leads to the use of a minimal set of inputs, since the temporal relations of the electric load time-series are identified without any prior knowledge of the appropriate past load values being necessary. An extensive simulation analysis is conducted, and the forecaster’s performance... [more]

