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Records with Type: Published Article
7335. LAPSE:2023.31802
Performance Evaluation Concept for Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion toward Standardization and Intelligent Design
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Design
Keywords: Exergy, finite-time thermodynamics, normalized efficiency, OTEC, transferable energy.
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) uses a very simple process to convert the thermal energy stored mainly in tropical oceans into electricity. In designs, operations, and evaluations, we need to consider the unique characteristics of OTEC to achieve the best performance or lower the electricity cost of projects. The concept and design constraints of OTEC power generation differ from those of conventional thermal power plants due to the utilization of a low temperature difference. This research theoretically recognizes the unique characteristics of the energy conversion system and summarizes the appropriate performance evaluation methods for OTEC based on finite-time thermodynamics and the equilibrium condition of the heat source. In addition, it presents the concept of normalization of thermal efficiency for OTEC and exergy efficiency based on the available thermal energy in the ocean defined as the transferable thermal energy from the ocean and the equilibrium condition as the dea... [more]
7336. LAPSE:2023.31801
Stationary, Second Use Battery Energy Storage Systems and Their Applications: A Research Review
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: barriers, battery applications, hybrid storage, low-carbon society, outlook, second use, stationary energy storage system, trends.
The global demand for electricity is rising due to the increased electrification of multiple sectors of economic activity and an increased focus on sustainable consumption. Simultaneously, the share of cleaner electricity generated by transient, renewable sources such as wind and solar energy is increasing. This has made additional buffer capacities for electrical grids necessary. Battery energy storage systems have been investigated as storage solutions due to their responsiveness, efficiency, and scalability. Storage systems based on the second use of discarded electric vehicle batteries have been identified as cost-efficient and sustainable alternatives to first use battery storage systems. Large quantities of such batteries with a variety of capacities and chemistries are expected to be available in the future, as electric vehicles are more widely adopted. These batteries usually still possess about 80% of their initial capacity and can be used in storage solutions for high-energy... [more]
7337. LAPSE:2023.31800
Performance Assessment of District Energy Systems with Common Elements for Heating and Cooling
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: benchmarking, district cooling, district heating, key performance indicator, Renewable and Sustainable Energy.
District energy systems, especially those integrating renewables or low exergy sources, have multiple elements for generating heating and cooling. Some of these elements might be used for both purposes: heating and cooling, either simultaneously or alternatively. This makes it more complex to separate the assessment and have a clear picture on performance of cooling service on one side, and heating services on the other, in terms of energy, environmental, and economic results. However, a correct comparison between different district energy configurations or among district energy and conventional solutions requires split assessment of each service. The paper presents a methodology for calculating different district heating and cooling system key performance indicators (KPIs), distinguishing between heating and cooling ones. A total of eleven indicators are organized under four categories: energy, environment, economy and socio-economy. Each KPI is defined for heating service and for coo... [more]
7338. LAPSE:2023.31799
Development of Methodological Bases of the Processes of Steam Formation in Coil Type Boilers Using Solar Concentrators
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: boiler installation, coaxial cylinders, coil pipe, heat transfer, solar concentrators.
A mathematical model of the vaporization process in the coil is developed, taking into account the experimental data. To investigate and visualize the evaporation procedure in the coil, a mathematical pattern of the vapor-liquid mixture motion is compiled and reproduced. In the methodology of the study of the movement of the steam-water mixture, correction coefficients are proposed for calculating the velocities of the coolant in non-standard coaxial coils. The parameters were calculated using data sensitivity analysis and data validation was performed by repeated tests; uncertainty was detected when using the instruments, as well as the total extended uncertainty, the upper and lower limit of uncertainty for each measured parameter. In addition, as part of the steam generator set, solar collectors operate in the summer mode. Using the example of the studied steam generator operating in the conditions of an oil and gas field in the subarctic climate, it is shown that it is possible to... [more]
7339. LAPSE:2023.31798
Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Keywords: artificial neural network, prediction, random forest, solar irradiation, vector support machine.
Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.
7340. LAPSE:2023.31797
Identification of Efficient Sampling Techniques for Probabilistic Voltage Stability Analysis of Renewable-Rich Power Systems
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: probabilistic techniques, uncertainty modelling, voltage stability, wind power generation.
This paper presents a comparative analysis of six sampling techniques to identify an efficient and accurate sampling technique to be applied to probabilistic voltage stability assessment in large-scale power systems. In this study, six different sampling techniques are investigated and compared to each other in terms of their accuracy and efficiency, including Monte Carlo (MC), three versions of Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC), i.e., Sobol, Halton, and Latin Hypercube, Markov Chain MC (MCMC), and importance sampling (IS) technique, to evaluate their suitability for application with probabilistic voltage stability analysis in large-scale uncertain power systems. The coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) are calculated to measure the accuracy and the efficiency of the sampling techniques compared to each other. All the six sampling techniques provide more than 99% accuracy by producing a large number of wind speed random samples (8760 samples). In terms of efficienc... [more]
7341. LAPSE:2023.31796
Forecasting of Heat Production in Combined Heat and Power Plants Using Generalized Additive Models
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: combined heat and power plant, district heating network, generalized additive model, heat demand prediction, heat production.
The paper presents a developed methodology of short-term forecasting for heat production in combined heat and power (CHP) plants using a big data-driven model. An accurate prediction of an hourly heat load in the day-ahead horizon allows a better planning and optimization of energy and heat production by cogeneration units. The method of training and testing the predictive model with the use of generalized additive model (GAM) was developed and presented. The weather data as an input variables of the model were discussed to show the impact of weather conditions on the quality of predicted heat load. The new approach focuses on an application of the moving window with the learning data set from the last several days in order to adaptively train the model. The influence of the training window size on the accuracy of forecasts was evaluated. Different versions of the model, depending on the set of input variables and GAM parameters were compared. The results presented in the paper were ob... [more]
7342. LAPSE:2023.31795
Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Aperiodic Phenomena on the Energy Balance of Propulsion Engines in Vehicle Electromobility Systems for Given Areas
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: charging stations, clustering, data analysis, efficiency engines, electric vehicle, electromobility, energy balance, sustainable development.
The article presents the methodology of isolating aperiodic phenomena constituting the basis of the energy balance of vehicles for the analysis of electromobility system indicators. The symptom observation matrix (SOM) and experimental input data are used to analyze periodic phenomena symptoms. The multidimensional nature of the engine efficiency shortage has been well defined and analyzed in terms of errors in the general model using neural networks, singular value decomposition, and principal component analysis. A more difficult task is the analysis of a multidimensional decision-making process. The research used a data fusion method and the concept of symptom reliability, which is applied to the generalized failure symptom obtained by applying the singular value decomposition (SVD). The model research has been based on the gray system theory (GST) and GM forecasting models (1,1). Input data were obtained from the assessment of driving cycles and analysis of the failure frequency for... [more]
7343. LAPSE:2023.31794
The Role of Flexibility in Photovoltaic and Battery Optimal Sizing towards a Decarbonized Residential Sector
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: decarbonization of energy demand, energy-flexible building, energy-flexible district, prosumers, self-consumption.
The ambitious environmental goals set by the 2030 Climate Target Plan can be reached with a strong contribution coming from the residential sector and the exploitation of its flexibility, intended as the capacity of a building to shift its consumption to maximize the use of renewable energy. In the literature, the impact of flexibility has been mainly studied for the optimization of the control logic, assuming that the photovoltaic system and the electric storage have already been installed. Conversely, in this work, we adopt a different perspective that analyses the system from the designer point of view. Different scenarios with a variable degree of flexibility have been created and tested in a residential district considering various demand profiles (i.e., home appliances, heat pumps, and electric vehicles consumption). The profiles have been then used as input for an optimization tool that can design the optimal system according to a specific target function. Firstly, the system ha... [more]
7344. LAPSE:2023.31793
Assessing the Sustainable Development and Renewable Energy Sources Relationship in EU Countries
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: EU countries, European Green Deal, RES, SDG 7, sustainable development.
In the context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, by adopting the EU Renewable Energy Directive and the European Green Deal, the European Union aims at an extremely ambitious goal to become climate neutral by 2050. This goal involves a massive investment plan to support this initiative, but also to reduce disparities between Member States, in order to transform the Union into a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the sustainable development and renewable energy sources relationship in EU countries from a new perspective. Based on Eurostat available data and with the help of hierarchical clustering analysis, the Member States were divided in 2019 into five clusters, highlighting the key characteristics of the selected variables. The results of this research revealed high-performing groups of countries, as well as countries that need increased attention and additional support to become more efficient in achi... [more]
7345. LAPSE:2023.31792
The Use of a Real-Time Simulator for Analysis of Power Grid Operation States with a Wind Turbine
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: average voltages in the integration step method, mathematical modeling of power systems, power network simulation, real-time simulation.
The main issue in this paper is the real-time simulator of a part of a power grid with a wind turbine. The simulator is constructed on the basis of a classic PC running under a classic operating system. The proposed solution is expected and desired by users who intend to manage power microgrids as separate (but not autonomous) areas of common national power systems. The main reason for the decreased interest in real-time simulators solutions built on the basis of PC is the simulation instability. The instability of the simulation is due to not keeping with accurate results when using small integration steps and loss of accuracy or loss of stability when using large integration steps. The second obstacle was due to the lack of a method for integrating differential equations, which gives accurate results with a large integration step. This is the scientific problem that is solved in this paper. A new solution is the use of a new method for integrating differential equations based on aver... [more]
7346. LAPSE:2023.31791
Model-Free Neural Network-Based Predictive Control for Robust Operation of Power Converters
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: identification, model predictive control (MPC), model-free predictive control, power converter, robust performance, state-space neural network with particle swarm optimization (ssNN-PSO).
An accurate definition of a system model significantly affects the performance of model-based control strategies, for example, model predictive control (MPC). In this paper, a model-free predictive control strategy is presented to mitigate all ramifications of the model’s uncertainties and parameter mismatch between the plant and controller for the control of power electronic converters in applications such as microgrids. A specific recurrent neural network structure called state-space neural network (ssNN) is proposed as a model-free current predictive control for a three-phase power converter. In this approach, NN weights are updated through particle swarm optimization (PSO) for faster convergence. After the training process, the proposed ssNN-PSO combined with the predictive controller using a performance criterion overcomes parameter variations in the physical system. A comparison has been carried out between the conventional MPC and the proposed model-free predictive control in di... [more]
7347. LAPSE:2023.31790
Assessment of Demand Side Flexibility in European Electricity Markets: A Country Level Review
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: demand side flexibility, demand side management, distribution system operators, flexibility services, power systems, regulatory principles.
Power systems in many countries have recently undergone a significant transition towards renewable and carbon-free generation sources. Those sources pose new challenges to the grid operation due to their intermittency and uncertainty. Consequently, advanced policy strategies and technologies offering new flexibility solutions on the inelastic demand side are required to maintain the reliability of power systems. Given the diversity of situations, legislation and needs across European countries and the varying nature of distribution system operators, this article reviews the deployment of demand side flexibility at national level to identify best practices and main barriers. The analysis concerns European countries of different progress in solutions that leverage flexibility towards offering electricity grid services. The scope is to explore the operation principles of European electricity markets, to assess the participation of emerging flexible resources, and to propose new approaches... [more]
7348. LAPSE:2023.31789
The Effects of Ultra-Low Viscosity Engine Oil on Mechanical Efficiency and Fuel Economy
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: friction loss, fuel economy, high efficiency engine, low viscosity oil.
The development of a sustainable powertrain requires improved thermal efficiency. Reducing frictional power losses through the use of ultra-low viscosity oil is one of the most effective and economical ways. To assess the potential for efficiency enhancement in a new generation of future engines using low-viscosity oils, a technical analysis was conducted based on numerical simulation and theoretical analysis. This study proposes a numerical method coupling the whole multi-dynamics model and lubrication model under mixed lubrication regimes. Then, load distribution was calculated numerically and verified experimentally. Finally, this paper compares the bearing load and frictional energy loss of the main bearings when using The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) 15W40 and SAE 0W20 oil. The results indicate that the application of ultralow-viscosity lubricant can reduce the hydraulic friction loss up to 24%, but the asperity friction loss would increase due to the reduction in load ca... [more]
7349. LAPSE:2023.31788
A Novel Feature Extraction Method for the Condition Monitoring of Bearings
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Information Management
Keywords: bearing fault, empirical mode decomposition, feature extraction, Hilbert transform, signal processing, vibration analysis.
This paper presents an innovative approach to the extraction of an indicator for the monitoring of bearing degradation. This approach is based on the principles of the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the Hilbert transform (HT). The proposed approach extracts the temporal components of oscillating vibration signals called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). These components are classified locally from the highest frequencies to the lowest frequencies. By selecting the appropriate components, it is possible to construct a bank of self-adaptive and automatic filters. Combined with the HT, the EMD allows an estimate of the instantaneous frequency of each IMF. A health indicator called the Hilbert marginal spectrum density is then extracted in order to detect and diagnose the degradation of bearings. This approach was validated on two test benches with variable speeds and loads. The obtained results demonstrated the effectiveness of this approach for the monitoring of ball and roller be... [more]
7350. LAPSE:2023.31787
Experimental Validation of the Thermal Processes Modeling in a Solar Still
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: desalination, Distillation, mathematical modeling, solar still.
Passive solar distillation is cheap and energy-efficient technology but its main disadvantage is low productivity. Thus, there are many attempts to improve solar stills’ productivity, and one of them is changing the mass of the water. This paper presents the results of validation of the thermal processes modeling in a solar still (SS). In order to validate the model, the experimental studies were conducted in a laboratory to ensure uniform climatic conditions. The studies were carried out for 10 kg, 15 kg, and 20 kg of water under three different solar irradiance conditions. The results show that 10 kg and 20 kg of water ensure the highest and the lowest daily productivity, respectively, independently of solar irradiance. When the water mass is 10 kg, the solar still’s productivity is 800 mL/m2/day, 3732 mL/m2/day, and 9392 mL/m2/day for low, medium, and high solar irradiance, respectively. Additionally, it is found that reducing the water mass from 20 kg to 10 kg can improve solar sti... [more]
7351. LAPSE:2023.31786
Analysis of Wind Turbine Aging through Operation Data Calibrated by LiDAR Measurement
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: LiDAR, nacelle transfer function (NTF), normalized capacity factor, performance aging, Shinan wind farm.
This study analyzed the performance decline of wind turbine with age using the SCADA (Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition) data and the short-term in situ LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) measurements taken at the Shinan wind farm located on the coast of Bigeumdo Island in the southwestern sea of South Korea. Existing methods have generally attempted to estimate performance aging through long-term trend analysis of a normalized capacity factor in which wind speed variability is calibrated. However, this study proposes a new method using SCADA data for wind farms whose total operation period is short (less than a decade). That is, the trend of power output deficit between predicted and actual power generation was analyzed in order to estimate performance aging, wherein a theoretically predicted level of power generation was calculated by substituting a free stream wind speed projecting to a wind turbine into its power curve. To calibrate a distorted wind speed measurement in a n... [more]
7352. LAPSE:2023.31785
Physical Dimensions as a Design Objective in Heat Transfer Equipment: The Case of Plate and Fin Heat Exchangers
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: exchanger volume, plate and fin heat exchangers, secondary surfaces, surface engineering, thermo-hydraulic model, volume design region.
To incorporate exchanger dimensions as a design objective in plate and fin heat exchangers, a variable that must be taken into consideration is the geometry of the finned surfaces to be used. In this work, a methodology to find the surface geometry that will produce the required heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop to achieve the design targets was developed. The geometry of secondary surfaces can be specified by the fin density, which represents the number of fins per unit length. All other geometrical features, as well as the thermo-hydraulic performance, can be derived from this parameter. This work showed the way finned surfaces are engineered employing generalised thermo-hydraulic correlations as a part of a design methodology. It also showed that there was a volume space referred to as volume design region (VDR) where heat duty, pressure drop, and dimensions could simultaneously be met. Such a volume design region was problem- and surface-specific; therefore, its limits we... [more]
7353. LAPSE:2023.31784
Support Vector Machine Based Fault Location Identification in Microgrids Using Interharmonic Injection
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: System Identification
Keywords: fault location, harmonics, Machine Learning, microgrid, power electronics, protection.
This paper proposes an algorithm for detection and identification of the location of short circuit faults in islanded AC microgrids (MGs) with meshed topology. Considering the low level of fault current and dependency of the current angle on the control strategies, the legacy overcurrent protection schemes are not effective in in islanded MGs. To overcome this issue, the proposed algorithm detects faults based on the rms voltages of the distributed energy resources (DERs) by means of support vector machine classifiers. Upon detection of a fault, the DER which is electrically closest to the fault injects three interharmonic currents. The faulty zone is identified by comparing the magnitude of the interharmonic currents flowing through each zone. Then, the second DER connected to the faulty zone injects distinctive interharmonic currents and the resulting interharmonic voltages are measured at the terminal of each of these DERs. Using the interharmonic voltages as its features, a multi-c... [more]
7354. LAPSE:2023.31783
The Use of the Fourier Series to Analyze the Shaping of Thermodynamic Processes in Heat Engines
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: ACC engine, Atkinson, Carnot, Fourier series, Otto, theoretical thermodynamic cycle, Vibe function.
The article presents the application of the Fourier series to theoretical considerations on the method of maximum temperature control in thermodynamic cycles of internal combustion engines equipped with an additional independent kinematic system. The analysis assumes that the processes are zero-dimensional and the gases consumed in the engine cycles are perfect, simplifying the considerations for temperature control as a function of the two variables, pressure and volume, of which the volume as a geometric quantity can be completely controlled. In view of this fact, a predetermined temperature curve was assumed, ultimately reducing the considerations of specific volume changes, that is to say a kinematic system that could implement these changes. Moreover, in the analysis of volume changes, a cycle not used so far in the description of internal combustion engines was used. In the next step, the cycle was modified using the popular Vibe function, which was replaced in the theoretical cy... [more]
7355. LAPSE:2023.31782
The Investigation into the Tribological Impact of Alternative Fuels on Engines Based on Acoustic Emission
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: acoustic emission, alternative fuel, asperity–asperity collision, fluid-asperities shearing, tribological impacts, wavelet packets transform.
The wide use of different alternative fuels (AL) has led to challenges to the internal combustion (IC) engine tribology. To avoid any unpredicted damages to lubrication joints by using AL fuels, this study aims to accurately evaluate the influences of alternative fuels on the tribological behavior of IC engines. Recent achievements of the acoustic emission (AE) mechanism in sliding friction provide an opportunity to explain the tribological AE responses on engines. The asperity−asperity−collision (AAC) and fluid−asperity−shearing (FAS) mechanisms were applied to explain the AE responses from the piston ring and cylinder liner system. A new adaptive threshold−wavelet packets transform (WPT) method was developed to extract tribological AE features. Experimental tests were conducted by fueling three fuels: pure diesel (PD), biodiesel (BD), and Fischer−Tropsch (F−T) diesel. The FAS−AE indicators of biodiesel and F−T diesel show a tiny difference compared to the baseline diesel using two ty... [more]
7356. LAPSE:2023.31781
Development of AI-Based Diagnostic Model for the Prediction of Hydrate in Gas Pipeline
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, diagnostic model, gas hydrate, greedy layer-wise, stacked auto-encoder.
For the stable supply of oil and gas resources, industry is pushing for various attempts and technology development to produce not only existing land fields but also deep-sea, where production is difficult. The development of flow assurance technology is necessary because hydrate is aggregated in the pipeline and prevent stable production. This study established a system that enables hydrate diagnosis in the gas pipeline from a flow assurance perspective. Learning data were generated using an OLGA simulator, and temperature, pressure, and hydrate volume at each time step were generated. Stacked auto-encoder (SAE) was used as the AI model after analyzing training loss. Hyper-parameter matching and structure optimization were carried out using the greedy layer-wise technique. Through time-series forecast, we determined that AI diagnostic model enables depiction of the growth of hydrate volume. In addition, the average R-square for the maximum hydrate volume was 97%, and that for the form... [more]
7357. LAPSE:2023.31780
Assessing the Effectiveness of the Energy Storage Rule-Based Control in Reducing the Power Flow Uncertainties Caused by Distributed Photovoltaic Systems
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: Energy Storage, net power flows, photovoltaic, rule-based control, uncertainty.
Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are increasingly adopted to mitigate the negative effects caused by the intermittent generation of photovoltaic (PV) systems. The majority of commercial BESSs implement the self-consumption, rule-based approach, which aims at storing the excess of PV production, and then reusing it when the power demand of the loads exceeds the PV power generation. Even though this approach proved to be a valid solution to increase the self-consumption of distributed generators, its ability to reduce the power flow uncertainties caused by PV systems is still debatable. To fill this gap, this study aims at answering this question by proposing a dedicated set of key performance indicators (KPIs). These KPIs are used to evaluate the performance of a 13.8 kWp/25.2 kWh Lithium-Ion BESS coupled with a 64 kWp PV system. The results of the study revealed that the impact of the storage system had almost negligible effects on the uncertainty of the net power flows, while sh... [more]
7358. LAPSE:2023.31779
Design and Analysis of a Dual Airgap Radial Flux Permanent Magnet Vernier Machine with Yokeless Rotor
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: dual airgap PMVM, finite element analysis, radial type, torque per magnet volume, yokeless rotor.
This paper presents a novel topology of dual airgap radial flux permanent magnet vernier machine (PMVM) in order to obtain a higher torque per magnet volume and similar average torque compared to a conventional PMVM machine. The proposed machine contains two stators and a sandwiched yokeless rotor. The yokeless rotor helps to reduce the magnet volume by providing an effective flux linkage in the stator windings. This effective flux linkage improved the average torque of the proposed machine. The competitiveness of the proposed vernier machine was validated using 2D finite element analysis under the same machine volume as that of conventional vernier machine. Moreover, cogging torque, torque ripples, torque density, losses, and efficiency performances also favored the proposed topology.
7359. LAPSE:2023.31778
Hourly Variation of Wind Speeds in the Philippines and Its Potential Impact on the Stability of the Power System
April 19, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: land-sea breeze, system stability, topography, wind energy, wind ramp, wind variability.
Wind energy development has been limited by concerns associated to the varying features in wind speed which tends to destabilize the power system. This study aims to clarify the variability of winds within a day in the Philippines, specifically the hourly changes of onshore horizontal winds at 100-m hub-heights. A whole one-year experiment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model shows that onshore wind speeds decrease during the transitional hours between land breeze and sea breeze. The decreases in wind speed are most significant over coastal regions with high sloping topography. The extreme decreases in wind speed during morning hours, due to the natural processes, are found to often occur at the same time as the extreme electricity undersupply caused by the morning increase in energy demand. This result warns that the power system stability in the Philippines may become more sensitive to the variability of wind as the share of wind energy generation increases in the future.... [more]
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