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Records with Subject: Modelling and Simulations
3857. LAPSE:2023.9177
A Working Fluid Assessment for a Biomass Organic Rankine Cycle under Different Conditions
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: biomass ORC system, working fluid investigation.
Many thermal resources are not reasonably used in the chemical industry’s production process. To recover the waste heat from organic waste residue-calcium carbonate (CaCO3), which is added to inhibit hydrogen production, an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) system is applied in this research. An ORC system can reuse the low-temperature waste heat that is not fully utilized. In this study, the mathematical model of the biomass ORC power generation system is constructed. Five organic working fluids, R11, R113, R123, R141b, and R245fa, were selected from the physical characteristics and safety of working fluids. The system application case is the low-temperature heat absorption in a chemical industry’s production process. The system is simulated by Aspen Plus V11 software, so as to study and analyze the influence of different working fluids and working conditions on the system performance and to obtain the preferred working fluids under different working conditions. At the same time, the econom... [more]
3858. LAPSE:2023.9162
Microscopic Mechanism for the Displacement of Shale Oil by CO2 in Organic Nanopores
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, displacement, molecular dynamics simulation, n-dodecane, shale oil.
The effective displacement of the shale oil from organic nanopores plays a significant role in development of the shale oil reservoirs. In order to deeply understand the microscopic displacement mechanism of alkane of shale oil by CO2 in organic nanopores, microscopic pore model of organic matter and molecular model of CO2 and n-dodecane were established to investigate the influences of key parameters on the displacement process by using the Monte Carlo and molecular dynamics simulation method. The instantaneous adsorption of molecules demonstrates that the displacement of n-dodecane and the adsorption of CO2 are proportional to the increase of the injection pressure of CO2 as well as the pore size. In addition, the results also show that the adsorption capacity of CO2 first increases and then decreases with the increase of the temperature, which indicates that the optimum temperature exists for the adsorption of CO2. This work can provide critical insights into understanding the micro... [more]
3859. LAPSE:2023.9160
Analysis of Requirements for Achieving Carbon Neutrality in a Cold Dense City Using GIS
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: carbon neutrality, GIS, orthographic image, PV, sky view factor, ZEB.
Photovoltaics (PV) can make a significant contribution to achieving carbon neutrality in buildings. Geographic information systems (GIS) make it easy to model cities and simulate PV with high accuracy. However, the computational burden from 3D urban models remains high. In this study, the complex geometry of a city was represented in 2D images, and we propose a method for performing multiple PV simulations in a short amount of time by using these 2D images. The ratio of electricity generation to primary energy consumption (EG/E) was calculated for 415 office buildings in Sapporo, Japan, and conditions for achieving carbon neutrality in these buildings were explored. For buildings with a small gross floor area, EG/E can be higher than one, and carbon neutrality can be achieved by improving the performance of the exterior walls and windows and by increasing the area of the PV installed. However, to improve EG/E in buildings with a large gross floor area, it is necessary to consider impro... [more]
3860. LAPSE:2023.9159
Capacitance Temperature Dependence Analysis of GaN-on-Si Power Transistors
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: capacitance, gallium nitride, power electronics, TCAD, traps, wide bandgap.
Many kinds of defects are present in the different layers of GaN-on-Si epitaxy. Their study is very important, especially because they play a significant role on the device characteristics. This paper investigates the cause of the temperature dependence of the output and Miller capacitance at three temperatures: 25 °C, 75 °C and 150 °C of GaN-on-Si power transistors. In particular, this study focuses on the temperature dependence of the depletion voltage seen in these characteristics due to the progressive depletion of the two-dimensional electron gas (2DEG) under the device field plates. First, variations of the epitaxial growth are studied, showing that the intrinsic carbon concentration does not play a significant role. Secondly, the deep acceptor trap origin of the temperature dependence is analyzed with a TCAD simulation study. Thirdly, by adjusting TCAD parameters and binding them with experimental concentrations to fit experimental data, trap properties were obtained. The compar... [more]
3861. LAPSE:2023.9157
Simulation Analysis of Ejector Optimization for High Mass Entrainment under the Influence of Multiple Structural Parameters
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: ejector, entrainment ratio, response surface method, structural optimization.
As an energy-saving technology, the ejector is widely used in the heating, aerospace, and chemical industry. The ejector performance is closely related to its structure, so the structure of the ejector needs to be optimized. In the present study, single-factor optimization is first carried out, and the main structural parameters affecting the ejector performance are screened out. Then, the response surface method is used to analyze the combined effect of the multiple structural parameters of the ejector, find out the optimal structure, and analyze the flow field inside the ejector. This study shows that, through numerical simulation, the ejector performance obtained by the response surface method is better than that obtained by the single-factor optimization method or theoretically designed ejector, and the ejector performance is 35.4% higher than that of the theoretically designed ejector. Moreover, the optimal structure of the ejector obtained by the response surface method has high... [more]
3862. LAPSE:2023.9156
A Comprehensive Framework for Direct Lightning-Structure-Human Interaction Modelling in Heritage Monuments and Safety Assessment
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Ground Potential Rise (GPR), Lightning Protection System (LPS), Rolling Sphere Method (RSM), Scientific and Cultural Organizations (UNESCO), United Nations Educational.
Lightning is a perilous and unavoidable event of nature that presents major deleterious consequences on humans, tall structures, electrical power systems, forests, etc. Though several research studies have been carried out to analyse the sufficiency of a Lightning Protection System (LPS), very few research findings have been reported to assess the extent of risk due to lightning-human interaction in the vicinity of tall structures. This research aims at carrying out detailed modelling and simulation studies of LPS for heritage structure. Several current waveshapes as stipulated in IEC 62305 are modelled appropriately and presented to the electrical equivalent circuit representation of a heritage monument in South India (Brihadisvara Temple) to ascertain the impact of lightning parameters on heritage monuments. In addition, to assess the effectiveness of the earthing system, detailed earthing models during lightning is developed to assess the role played by aspects such as soil resistiv... [more]
3863. LAPSE:2023.9155
Evaluation of Technical Solutions to Improve Transient Stability in Power Systems with Wind Power Generation
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: power system simulation, power system stability, static VAr compensators, wind power generation.
Reliability and safety must be carefully considered in today’s power systems, which are rapidly evolving toward ever higher penetration of renewable, inverter-based generation units. Power systems are constantly stressed by active power disturbances, which can be exacerbated by wind and solar systems that are subject to rapid fluctuations in primary energy. In this framework, a comparative technical analysis of solutions to improve transient stability, both rotor angle stability and frequency stability, is carried out. These solutions can be adopted by the transmission system operator (e.g., an additional parallel transmission line), by the generation companies (e.g., a fast excitation system), or by both, such as SVC (static VAR compensator) and STATCOM (static synchronous compensator). Sensitivity analyses were carried out to assess the impact of the location of the wind turbines in the buses of the grid on their rated power and level of production. On the basis of these analyses, th... [more]
3864. LAPSE:2023.9149
Solar Radiation Forecasting Using Machine Learning and Ensemble Feature Selection
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: ensemble feature selection, Machine Learning, photovoltaic generation, solar radiation forecasting.
Accurate solar radiation forecasting is essential to operate power systems safely under high shares of photovoltaic generation. This paper compares the performance of several machine learning algorithms for solar radiation forecasting using endogenous and exogenous inputs and proposes an ensemble feature selection method to choose not only the most related input parameters but also their past observations values. The machine learning algorithms used are: Support Vector Regression (SVR), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBT), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost) and Voting-Average (VOA), which integrates SVR, XGBT and CatBoost. The proposed ensemble feature selection is based on Pearson coefficient, random forest, mutual information and relief. Prediction accuracy is evaluated based on several metrics using a real database from Salvador, Brazil. Different prediction time-horizons are considered: 1 h, 2 h and 3 h ahead. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed ensemble feature selection app... [more]
3865. LAPSE:2023.9147
Application of a Fractional Transfer Function for Simulating the Eddy Currents Effect in Electrical Systems
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: computer simulation, eddy currents, FOTF Toolbox, fractional order transfer function, structural model.
Some electrical devices contain a solid nonlaminated magnetic core as a component. In the case of variable magnetic flux, eddy currents arise in such a core, which should be taken into account for computer simulation if higher precision is needed. The fractional order transfer function (FOTF) based on the simple traditional model of excitation circuit of a DC machine is proposed for eddy current simulation. This model is illustrated by mathematical (based on differential equations and the Laplace operator) and structural approaches to the excitation circuit of a common DC generator with a solid core. The skin effect for more precise simulation of eddy currents is also considered by means of fractional order transfer functions in the computer models. Magnetic saturation and hysteresis were not taken into account in this case. The proposed model is simple and ensures adequate accuracy, confirmed experimentally using the FOTF Toolbox for MATLAB and Simulink. This model is distinct and pro... [more]
3866. LAPSE:2023.9142
Thermal and Electric Parameter Analysis of DC−DC Module Based on Resonant Switched Capacitor Converter
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: DC–DC boost converter, FEM simulations, high power density, high-temperature converter, low-volume converter, SiC-based converter, switched capacitor converter.
This elaboration presents the concept of the design, parameters, experimental investigation, and thermal numerical model solved using the finite element method of a high-power-density DC−DC converter. The analyzed unit can be utilized as a stand-alone converter or as a module for a scalable high-voltage gain system. The converter has a decreased bill of materials since it does not use typical chokes and heatsinks. It is based on switched capacitor circuits supported by a resonant choke which protects against inrush currents. A printed circuit board is utilized not only for the resonant inductance design but also for cooling transistor and diode devices. The paper demonstrates the design concept and the achieved parameters. Experimental results show heat distribution on the printed circuit board and components in a steady state and dynamical states as well. The converter parameters and their efficiency are measured as well. The convergence of experimental results and heating simulations... [more]
3867. LAPSE:2023.9129
Method to Estimate Thermal Transients in Reactors and Determine Their Parameter Sensitivities without a Forward Simulation
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: fast reactor, finite difference, thermal hydraulics, thermal transport, transient.
Thermal response time is an important parameter for the control of fast reactors. Modern thermal hydraulic codes allow for the modeling of transient responses and can also be used to understand the dominant factors that affect them. However, simulations can be computationally expensive, particularly for performing parametric analyses of how thermophysical properties affect transient behavior. Here, we present a method for using linear stability analysis to estimate thermal response time and determine the key parameters that affect transient behavior without performing a forward simulation. The approach can also be used to corroborate simulation results and is tested against simulation results produced with a 2D finite difference model. The results show that this approach produces time-dependent temperature profiles that are within 2 × 10−5−0.1% of the numerical results for a single node perturbation. Changes in temperature have the greatest effect on thermal response time, followed by... [more]
3868. LAPSE:2023.9127
Modeling and Evaluation of SiC Inverters for EV Applications
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: drive cycle, electric vehicle (EV), endurance mileage, Insulated-Gate-Bipolar-Transistor (IGBT), power module, Silicon–Carbide (SiC), traction inverter.
In this paper, the efficiency benefits of adopting Silicon−Carbide devices for electric vehicle applications are studied. A hybrid time and frequency domain-based simulation tool is developed for the Silicon−Carbide (SiC) traction inverter modeling. The tool provides steady-state results with comparable accuracy to standard time domain methods and achieves a factor of thousand reductions in time when simulating a large number of operating points. Especially, the impact of temperature-dependent device losses has been considered to ensure the simulation precision. Next, a vehicle-level modeling is developed to evaluate the impact of the inverter efficiency on the endurance mileage increase of vehicles. It is found that, by applying Silicon−Carbide devices, the energy consumption of the inverter can be greatly reduced by 3/4 under WLTC (World light light-duty vehicle test cycle) profile. It can be transformed into a mileage endurance increase of 3−5%. The impact of the drive cycle profile... [more]
3869. LAPSE:2023.9123
A Novel Method of Deep Learning for Shear Velocity Prediction in a Tight Sandstone Reservoir
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: deep feed neuro network, deep learning, rock physics modeling, shear velocity prediction, Sichuan Basin, tight sandstone.
Shear velocity is an important parameter in pre-stack seismic reservoir description. However, in the real study, the high cost of array acoustic logging leads to lacking a shear velocity curve. Thus, it is crucial to use conventional well-logging data to predict shear velocity. The shear velocity prediction methods mainly include empirical formulas and theoretical rock physics models. When using the empirical formula method, calibration should be performed to fit the local data, and its accuracy is low. When using rock physics modeling, many parameters about the pure mineral must be optimized simultaneously. We present a deep learning method to predict shear velocity from several conventional logging curves in tight sandstone of the Sichuan Basin. The XGBoost algorithm has been used to automatically select the feature curves as the model’s input after quality control and cleaning of the input data. Then, we construct a deep-feed neuro network model (DFNN) and decompose the whole model... [more]
3870. LAPSE:2023.9118
Longitudinal DC Discharge in a Supersonic Flow: Numerical Simulation and Experiment
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: arc discharge, DC discharge, experiment, numerical simulation, supersonic flow.
This work focuses on detailed descriptions of DC discharge properties in supersonic airflow and its applicability in combustion simulations. Due to the complexity of obtaining most of the data in the experiment, our experimental research was supplemented by a numerical simulation. Two packages, i.e., FlowVision (fast commercial CFD for 3D engineering) and Plasmaero (2D scientific code developed in JIHT RAS for MHD tasks), were used for modeling the arc DC discharge in a supersonic flow at Mach (M) = 2. Both will be considered for further use in plasma-assisted combustion modeling, so it is important to validate both codes using experimental data from the model configuration with discharge. Axisymmetric geometries of experiments with two coaxial electrodes located parallel to the flow were chosen to avoid the appearance of the current channel part perpendicular to the flow and the corresponding discharge pulsations. Such geometries allow performing numerical simulations in 2D formulatio... [more]
3871. LAPSE:2023.9117
A Point-Cloud Solar Radiation Tool
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: point-cloud data, software tool, solar-radiation modeling, urban greenery, vegetation-covered areas, voxel-based modeling.
Current software solutions for solar-radiation modeling in 3D focus on the urban environment. Most of the published tools do not implement methods to consider complex objects, such as urban greenery in their models or they expect a rather complex 3D mesh to represent such objects. Their use in an environment that is difficult to represent geometrically, such as vegetation-covered areas, is rather limited. In this paper, we present a newly developed solar-radiation tool focused on solar-radiation modeling in areas with complex objects, such as vegetation. The tool uses voxel representations of space based on point-cloud data to calculate the illumination and ESRA solar-radiation model to estimate the direct, diffuse, and global irradiation in a specified time range. We demonstrate the capabilities of this tool on a forested mountain area of Suchá valley in the Hight Tatra mountains (Slovakia) and also in the urban environment of Castle Hill in Bratislava (Slovakia) with urban greenery.... [more]
3872. LAPSE:2023.9105
Digital Twins’ Applications for Building Energy Efficiency: A Review
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: buildings, digital twin, Energy Efficiency, energy performance, occupants’ comfort.
Over the last few decades, energy efficiency has received increasing attention from the Architecture, Engineering, Construction and Operation (AECO) industry. Digital Twins have the potential to advance the Operation and Maintenance (O&M) phase in different application fields. With the increasing industry interest, there is a need to review the current status of research developments in Digital Twins for building energy efficiency. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of the applications of digital twins for building energy efficiency, analyze research trends and identify research gaps and potential future research directions. In this review, Sustainability and Energy and Buildings are among the most frequently cited sources of publications. Literature reviewed was classified into four different topics: topic 1. Optimization design; topic 2. Occupants’ comfort; topic 3. Building operation and maintenance; and topic 4. Energy consumption simulation.
3873. LAPSE:2023.9104
Errors Incurred in Local Convective Heat Transfer Coefficients Obtained through Transient One-Dimensional Semi-Infinite Conduction Modeling: A Computational Heat Transfer Study
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: conduction, convective heat transfer, infrared thermography, liquid crystal thermography.
In typical turbulent flow problems, detailed heat transfer coefficient (h) maps obtained through short-duration experiments are based on inverse heat transfer methods that take the wall temperatures measured via liquid crystals or infrared thermography as input, and an error minimization routine is adopted to determine the best value of h that satisfies the wall temperature temporal evolution under a certain change in fluid temperature. A common practice involves modeling the solid as a one-dimensional semi-infinite medium by selecting the solid material that has low thermal conductivity and low thermal diffusivity. However, in certain flow scenarios, the neglection of the lateral heat diffusion may lead to significant errors in the deduced h values. It is imperative to understand the reasons behind large errors that may be incurred by using the 1D heat conduction assumption in order to accurately determine high-resolution h maps for better heat exchanger designs in a wide range of the... [more]
3874. LAPSE:2023.9097
A Lagrangian Description of Buoyancy Effects on Aircraft Wake Vortices from Wing Tips near a Heated Ground Plane
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: aircraft wake, buoyancy forces, crosswind, numerical simulation using parallel processing, preheating effects, vortex and temperature particles.
The present paper introduces the key ideas of a purely Lagrangian temperature particle method, which includes preheating effects on fluid flow nearest a heated wall. The numerical approach is then applied for the study of mixed heat transfer on aircraft wake vortices from wing tips in the vicinity of a heated ground plane, a situation commonly found during landing or takeoff operations at airports around the world. It was found in the literature experimental results of an investigation without the effects of heat transfer and crosswind, which were useful for a comparison with some present numerical results. Other numerical results are also discussed, focusing on the physics of the effects of mixed convection heat transfer and crosswind. As a contribution, the Richardson number is defined in terms of both aircraft wingspan and constant ground plane temperature, being the most important dimensionless group to capture the effects of laminar ascending mixed convection flow. The present met... [more]
3875. LAPSE:2023.9087
Study on Two-Phase Permeation of Oxygen and Electrolyte in Lithium Air Battery Electrode Based on Digital Twin
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: digital twin, lithium air battery, saturation, X-ray micro-computed tomography.
In this paper, the saturation of electrolytes on the mass transfer property of porous electrodes in non-aqueous lithium air batteries has been studied based on digital twin. Herein, we reconstruct the porous cathode based on X-ray micro-computed tomography (μct) and quantitatively analyze the pore size distribution, specific surface area, triple-phase interface area, conductivity and diffusion coefficient of reactants at varying filling degrees of the electrolyte. The results derived from digital twin provide insight into the gas−liquid two-phase mass transfer performance in the porous cathode with various degrees of electrolyte saturation and demonstrate that the optimum electrolyte saturation is 60%.
3876. LAPSE:2023.9077
Liquid−Gas Jet Pump: A Review
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: application, centrifugal jet vacuum pump, gas–liquid two-phase flow, jet vacuum pump, liquid–gas jet pump, pulsed liquid–gas jet pump.
To promote the development and application of the liquid−gas jet pump (LGJP), the research status of its design theory, internal flow mechanism, structural optimization and practical application are reviewed. The development history of the LGJP is briefly reviewed, the latest research and application progress of the LGJP is introduced, and the pulse-type of LGJP, especially the centrifugal jet vacuum pump (CJVP), is emphatically discussed. The research and development direction of the LGJP is analyzed and proposed: CFD will be more deeply applied to the mechanism research and performance improvement of the LGJP; the diversity and heterogeneity of the fluid medium and its influence on the internal flow mechanism are the research highlights of the LGJP; it is urgent to study the gas−liquid two-phase flow and pumping mechanism inside the pulsed liquid−gas jet pump (PLGJP), especially the CJVP.
3877. LAPSE:2023.9076
Research and Application of Waterflooding Mechanism at the Bottom of Ultra-Low Permeability Shallow Reservoir with Horizontal Fractures
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: field practice, horizontal fractures, shallow oil reservoir, ultra-low permeability, waterflooding at the bottom.
The Yanchang Eastern Oilfield of Ordos Basin is a typical ultra-low permeability shallow reservoir. Because of the relatively low vertical pressure, horizontal artificial fractures are prone to take place in the case of oil well fracturing. Given the bigger contact surface between the horizontal fracture and the waterflood front of the water injection well, the oil well may be flooded fast in a short time, leading to a low mobilization degree of the reservoir. According to the characteristics of waterflooding of horizontal fractures, the development mode of waterflooding at the bottom of oil reservoirs was proposed. Through core sample displacement experiments and nuclear magnetic resonance online tests, combined with numerical simulation of reservoirs, field tracer test, and other comprehensive methods, the heterogeneity of reservoirs and the limit of waterflooding parameters were optimized. The research results show that the waterflooding effect is the best when the variation coeffic... [more]
3878. LAPSE:2023.9062
Effect of Nano-MgO Doping in XLPE on Charge Transport and Electric Field Distribution in Composite Insulation of HVDC Cable Joint
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: charge transport, electric field distribution, HVDC cable joint, nano-MgO, trap density, trap depth.
The space charge characteristics of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) can be improved to some extent by doping the appropriate amount of nano-MgO. In this study, in order to explore the influence of nano-MgO on the space charge and electric field distributions of the composite insulation of high voltage direct current (HVDC) cable joints, the effect of nano-MgO concentration on the depth and density of the deep traps in MgO/XLPE was first analyzed. On this basis, the charge transport simulation model of a 320 kV HVDC cable joint was established with MgO/XLPE as the cable insulation, and the space charge and electric field distributions of the cable joint under different temperature conditions were simulated. It was found that the radial charge distribution in the joint shows different trends with the change of nano-MgO concentration. There is a significant difference in the charge density on both sides of the (MgO/XLPE)/EPDM interface, and the difference first decreased and then increas... [more]
3879. LAPSE:2023.9053
Study on Harmonic Impedance Estimation Based on Gaussian Mixture Regression Using Railway Power Supply Loads
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Gaussian distribution, Gaussian mixture regression, harmonic impedance, railway traction power supply loads, robustness, uniform distribution.
There are a huge number of harmonics in the railway power supply system. Accurately estimating the harmonic impedance of the system is the key to evaluating the harmonic emission level of the power supply system. A harmonic impedance estimation method is proposed in this paper, which takes the Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) as the main idea, and is dedicated to calculating the harmonic impedance when the load changes or the background harmonic changes in the traction power supply system. First, the harmonic voltages and currents are measured at the point of common coupling (PCC); secondly, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is established and optimized parameters are obtained through the EM algorithm; finally, a Gaussian mixture regression is performed to obtain the utility side harmonic impedance. In the simulation study, different harmonic impedance estimation models with uniform distribution and Gaussian distribution are established, respectively, and the harmonic impedance changes c... [more]
3880. LAPSE:2023.9051
Heat Transfer and Structural Characteristics of Dissimilar Joints Joining Ti-64 and NiTi via Laser Welding
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: dissimilar metals, FEA, laser welding, thermal simulation.
This study investigates the thermal-stress characteristics of a bi-metallic Ti-6Al-4V-Nitinol butt joints manufactured via laser welding. Particularly, the thermal profile along the weld interface and the deformation profile of the finished welded workpiece. A decoupled transient thermomechanical simulation model was constructed to recreate the welding process. This decoupled thermomechanical simulation model consisted of two transient simulation models. A transient thermal simulation model and a transient structural simulation model, with the thermal history of the transient thermal model being fed into the transient structural model. Both the thermal and structural portions of the model utilized temperature-dependent thermal and structural properties of Ti-6Al-4V and Nitinol. The temperature profile of the transient thermal-stress model aligns with the experimental thermal profile within 5% error. The deformation profile also matches the experimental results within 5% error. This app... [more]
3881. LAPSE:2023.9047
A Novel Hybrid Machine Learning Model for Wind Speed Probabilistic Forecasting
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: hybrid model, Machine Learning, probabilistic forecasting, uncertainty quantification, wind speed.
Accurately capturing wind speed fluctuations and quantifying the uncertainties has important implications for energy planning and management. This paper proposes a novel hybrid machine learning model to solve the problem of probabilistic prediction of wind speed. The model couples the light gradient boosting machine (LGB) model with the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, where the LGB model can provide high-precision deterministic wind speed prediction results, and the GPR model can provide reliable probabilistic prediction results. The proposed model was applied to predict wind speeds for a real wind farm in the United States. The eight contrasting models are compared in terms of deterministic prediction and probabilistic prediction, respectively. The experimental results show that the LGB-GPR model improves the point forecast accuracy (RMSE) by up to 20.0% and improves the probabilistic forecast reliability (CRPS) by up to 21.5% compared to a single GPR model. This research is... [more]
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