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Records with Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Showing records 3765 to 3789 of 5729. [First] Page: 1 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 Last
Research on Vehicle Aerodynamics and Thermal Management Based on 1D and 3D Coupling Simulation
Yingchao Zhang, Jiesong Jian, Guohua Wang, Yuhan Jia, Jintao Zhang.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: aerodynamic performance, coupling simulation, grille, priority, thermal management performance
In order to ensure the full heat dissipation of heat exchangers, the opening of the grille should be large, which increases the wind drag of the whole vehicle. Most of the research on the grille only focuses on its impact on the heat dissipation of the engine compartment; there is little research on its influence on the performance of the thermal management system, because it is difficult to solve the real-time data interaction of different dimensional models. So we established the 1D and 3D strong coupling model. The biggest difference from other 1D and 3D coupling models is that we can use the interfaces reserved by the two kinds of software to realize real-time data interaction, and simultaneously analyze the 1D thermal management performance and 3D flow field and temperature field of the engine components. The coupling model is used to study three heat balance conditions. The results show that the heat-sinking capability of the cooling system is the worst under the climbing conditi... [more]
Dynamic Modeling and Investigation of a Tunable Vortex Bladeless Wind Turbine
Issam Bahadur.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: bladeless wind turbine, electromagnetic, energy harvester, spring–pendulum system, tunable, vortex-induced vibration
This paper investigates the dynamics of an electromagnetic vortex bladeless wind turbine (VBWT) with a tunable mechanism. The tunable mechanism comprises a progressive-rate spring that is attached to an oscillating magnet inside an electromagnetic coil. The spring stiffness is progressively adjusted as the wind speed changes to tune the turbine fundamental frequency to match the shedding frequency of the vortex-induced vibration (VIV) due to the wind flow crossing over the oscillating mast. Coupled nonlinear equations of motion of the tunable turbine are developed using the lumped-mass representation and Lagrange formulation. Numerical results show that the tunable turbine performs effectively beyond a threshold wind speed. An analytical expression of the threshold speed is derived based on the mechanical fundamental frequency of the turbine. The analytical results are in reasonable agreement with the numerical evaluations. At a given wind speed past the threshold, the tunable turbine... [more]
Swirl-Bypass Nozzle for CO2 Two-Phase Ejectors: Numerical Design Exploration
Knut Emil Ringstad, Krzysztof Banasiak, Åsmund Ervik, Armin Hafner.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: bypass ejector, Carbon Dioxide, Computational Fluid Dynamics, swirl bypass, two-phase ejector
In this work, a novel ejector design concept of a swirl-bypass nozzle is proposed to improve off-design performance of CO2 two-phase ejectors. The swirl-bypass nozzle allows part of the flow to bypass into the ejector mixing chamber to generate swirl. The design of such a device is investigated using a 3D multiphase CFD model. An extensive experimental test campaign is conducted to validate the baseline homogeneous equilibrium CFD model. The model’s prediction motive mass flow rate within 2−12% error and suction mass flow rate was predicted with 3−50% error. Based on the tested ejector geometry, simulations of different ejector swirl-bypass inlets are conducted. The results show that, for the current design, total entrainment of the ejector is reduced by 2−20% with the swirl-bypass inlet. The axial position of the bypass inlet plays a primary role in the bypass inlet flow rate, and, consequently, in suction flow reduction. This is found to be due to the bypass flow blocking off the suc... [more]
Modeling of Fuel Cells Characteristics in Relation to Real Driving Conditions of FCHEV Vehicles
Ireneusz Pielecha.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: current–voltage characteristics, fuel cell losses, Fuel Cells, fuel cells modeling, road tests
Fuel cells are one of the zero-emission elements of modern automotive drive systems. This article presents theoretical identification of the component parameters of indicators for the fuel cell operating conditions. Activation, ohmic, and mass transport losses were identified. Current−voltage characteristics were provided along with an analysis of typical cell losses. The actual performance characteristics of fuel cells were analyzed for Toyota Mirai I and II generation vehicles. The fuel cells operating conditions were derived and analyzed in the context of real driving conditions. Therefore, urban, rural, and motorway conditions were used. The vehicles were equipped with PEM fuel cells supplying power equal to 114 kW (1st gen.) or 128 kW (2nd gen.). The average fuel cell stack power values depend on the driving conditions: urban (about 10 kW), rural (20 kW) and motorway (about 30−40 kW) driving modes. The different power ratings of fuel cells combined with different battery generatio... [more]
Heat Transfer Characteristics of an Aeroengine Turbine Casing Based on CFD and the Surrogate Model
Wenlei Lian, Yunfei Jiang, Hao Chen, Yi Li, Xianglei Liu.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: aeroengine turbine casing, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), experiment, radiation heat transfer, Surrogate Model
A good turbine casing cooling design should control the thermal stress and maintain a reasonable tip clearance between the turbine blade and the casing. Since the turbine inlet temperature has been increased yearly, the influence of thermal radiation on the temperature of a turbine casing has become more significant. Therefore, the heat transfer characteristics of a turbine casing considering the radiation effect need to be precisely predicted. In this study, a theoretical model is established for describing the heat transfer characteristics of a turbofan casing, and the model’s effectiveness is verified by comparing the numerical and experimental results. Based on the validated model, the effects of single changes of the wall temperature, cooling air temperature, Reynolds number, and surface emissivity on the heat transfer of the casing are discussed. The results show that the increment of cooling air temperature and surface emissivity leads to the enhancement of the average radiative... [more]
Methodologies for Synthetic Spatial Building Stock Modelling: Data-Availability-Adapted Approaches for the Spatial Analysis of Building Stock Energy Demand
Claudio Nägeli, Liane Thuvander, Holger Wallbaum, Rebecca Cachia, Sebastian Stortecky, Ali Hainoun.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: bottom-up model, building stock modelling, spatial building stock modelling, synthetic building stock
Buildings are responsible for around 30 to 40% of the energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in European countries. Building stock energy models (BSEMs) are an established method to assess the energy demand and environmental impact of building stocks. Spatial analysis of building stock energy demand has so far been limited to cases where detailed, building specific data is available. This paper introduces two approaches of using synthetic building stock energy modelling (SBSEM) to model spatially distributed synthetic building stocks based on aggregate data. The two approaches build on different types of data that are implemented and validated for two separate case studies in Ireland and Austria. The results demonstrate the feasibility of both approaches to accurately reproduce the spatial distribution of the building stocks of the two cases. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that by using a SBSEM approach, a spatial analysis for building stock energy demand can be carried... [more]
Valuation of the Extension Option in Time Charter Contracts in the LNG Market
Sangseop Lim, Chang-hee Lee, Won-Ju Lee, Junghwan Choi, Dongho Jung, Younghun Jeon.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Black–Scholes, LNG market, Machine Learning, option valuation, period extension option, time charter
A rapid transition toward a decarbonized economy is underway, following the Paris Agreement and the International Maritime Organization 2030 decarbonization goals. However, due to the high cost of the rapid transition to eco-friendly energy and the geopolitical conflict in eastern Europe, liquefied natural gas (LNG), which emits less carbon than other fossil fuels, is gaining popularity. As the spot market grows due to increased LNG demand, the usage of period extension options in time charter (T/C) contracts is increasing; however, these options are generally provided free of charge in practice, without economic evaluation; this is because some shipowners want to make their time charter contracts more attractive to the more credible charterers. Essentially, the reason for why this option has not been evaluated is because there is no reliable evaluation model currently used in practice. That is, research on the evaluation model for the T/C extension option has been insufficient. Theref... [more]
The Forced Convection Analysis of Water Alumina Nanofluid Flow through a 3D Annulus with Rotating Cylinders via κ−ε Turbulence Model
Marei Saeed Alqarni, Abid Ali Memon, Haris Anwaar, Usman, Taseer Muhammad.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: annular, COMSOL, rotation, three-dimensional, turbulence
We investigated the dynamics of nanofluid and heat transfer in a three-dimensional circular annular using the κ−ε turbulence model and energy equations. The pipe contained two concentric and rotating cylinders with a constant speed in the tangential direction. A heat flux boundary condition was executed at the inner cylinder of the annular. The pipe was settled vertically, and water alumina nanofluid was allowed to enter, with the initial velocity depending on the Reynolds number, ranging from 30,000 to 60,000. The volume fraction of the solid particles was tested from 0.001 to 0.1. The speed of the rotation of the cylinders was tested in the range from 0.5 to 3.5. The simulations were developed using COMSOL Multiphysics 5.6, adopting the finite element procedure for governing equations. The results were validated using the mesh independent study and the average Nusselt number correlations. We found that the average Nusselt number in the middle of the channel decreases linearly with th... [more]
A Review of Auto-Regressive Methods Applications to Short-Term Demand Forecasting in Power Systems
Rafał Czapaj, Jacek Kamiński, Maciej Sołtysik.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial intelligence methods, autoregressive forecasting methods, Big Data, classical forecasting methods, Data Mining, electrical power demand, Machine Learning, power systems, short-term forecasting
The paper conducts a literature review of applications of autoregressive methods to short-term forecasting of power demand. This need is dictated by the advancement of modern forecasting methods and their achievement in good forecasting efficiency in particular. The annual effectiveness of forecasting power demand for the Polish National Power Grid for the next day is approx. 1%; therefore, the main objective of the review is to verify whether it is possible to improve efficiency while maintaining the minimum financial outlays and time-consuming efforts. The methods that fulfil these conditions are autoregressive methods; therefore, the paper focuses on autoregressive methods, which are less time-consuming and, as a result, cheaper in development and applications. The prepared review ranks the forecasting models in terms of the forecasting effectiveness achieved in the literature on the subject, which enables the selection of models that may improve the currently achieved effectiveness... [more]
Reliability Evaluation of Smart Substation Based on Time-Varying Probabilistic Hybrid Attack Graph
Zhiyong Li, Wubin Wen, Rende Dai, Wanting Xi.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cyber-physical attack, reliability evaluation, smart substation, TVHPAG
A substation is the portion of a power grid that forms a link between the cyber system and the physical system. Reliability evaluation of smart substations based on a time-varying probabilistic hybrid attack graph (TVPHAG) is studied in this paper. First, the topology network of the smart substation is established, whose attributes are represented by probability. Then, in order to solve the problem of asynchrony in the cyber-physical system and the hybrid caused by heterogeneity, time-varying state equation in topology and cuts in algebra are introduced to TVPHAG. Based on TVPHAG, the evaluation of the reliability of cyber-physical systems with multiple equipment and multiple timescales is established. On this basis, the influences of physical conditions, cyberattacks, physical attacks, and cyber-physical attacks on substations are analyzed, respectively. Finally, the simulation shows that the method is effective in evaluating the reliability of smart substations, providing a new metho... [more]
Economic Feasibility of Conventional and Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Implementation in Brazil
Gustavo Leite Gonçalves, Raphael Abrahão, Paulo Rotella Junior, Luiz Célio Souza Rocha.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: climate types, discounted cash flow, Monte Carlo simulation, NPV, solar energy
Economic feasibility analysis is essential in the decision-making process regarding investment in photovoltaic projects. Project profitability must be measured based not only on the costs and revenues, but also on the climatic particularities of the different locations. Therefore, performing simulations of technical and economic performance of photovoltaic models is fundamental. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze deterministic and stochastic models of investments in two types of photovoltaic systems, one incorporated into the enterprise’s architecture (a BIPV system) and the other, a conventional one, in different Brazilian locations, covering the predominant climatic factors in the country. The methodological proposal consisted of choosing a city in Brazil with each predominant climate type and compiling its data on irradiation, monthly sunshine hours, and tariffs of the electric power concessionaire, to simulate the electrical generation performance of the proposed phot... [more]
Reliability Evaluation of Standalone Microgrid Based on Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Method
Zhipeng Weng, Jinghua Zhou, Zhengdong Zhan.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy storage system, load shedding, microgrid, reliability evaluation, sequential Monte Carlo simulation
In order to analyze the influence of uncertainty and an operation strategy on the reliability of a standalone microgrid, a reliability evaluation method based on a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation was developed. Here, the duty cycles of a microturbine (MT), the stochastic performance of photovoltaics (PV), and wind turbine generators (WTG) were considered. Moreover, the time-varying load with random fluctuation was modeled. In this method, the available capacity of an energy storage system (ESS) was also comprehensively considered by the SMC simulation. Then, the reliability evaluation framework was established from the perspectives of probability, frequency, and duration, and reliability evaluation algorithms under different operation strategies were formulated. Lastly, the influence of WTG and PV penetration and equipment capacity on the reliability was evaluated in the test system. The results showed that the complementary characteristics of wind and solar and the enhancement... [more]
Analyzing Porpoising on High Downforce Race Cars: Causes and Possible Setup Adjustments to Avoid It
Marco Gadola, Daniel Chindamo, Paolo Magri, Giulia Sandrini.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: aerodynamic efficiency, aerodynamic stability, high-downforce race cars, vehicle dynamics simulations
The so-called porpoising is a well-known problem similar to bouncing that is affecting the dynamic behavior of basically all the field of 2022 Formula 1 racing cars. It is due to the extreme sensitivity of aerodynamic loads to ride height variations along a lap. Mid-way through the season race engineers are still struggling to cope with this phenomenon and its consequences, with regard to either physiological stress experienced by the drivers or to overall vehicle performance and stability. The paper introduces two kinds of models based on real-world chassis and aerodynamic data, where the above-mentioned downforce sensitivity has been arbitrarily recreated through the application of a decay function to aero maps. The first one is a quasi-static model, usually adopted as a trackside tool for controlling ride heights and aero balance, while the second, a fully dynamic model, recreates the interaction between oscillating aerodynamic loads and suspension dynamics resulting in a visible po... [more]
A Method for Evaluating the Rock Breaking Efficiency of Cutters and Optimizing the PDC Cutter Profile—A Study of Igneous Rock Formations in Shunbei Oilfield
Zhuoxin Dong, Hui Zhang, Jun Li, Kuangsheng Zhang, Yangyong Ou, Zongyu Lu, Jiangang Shi.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: mechanical specific energy, rock breaking effect, Shunbei Oilfield, special-shaped cutters
The Permian igneous rock in Shunbei Oilfield exhibits high rock strength, which results in a low rate of penetration (ROP) and shortens the cutter’s service life. It is necessary to analyze and evaluate the rock breaking effect of cutters. However, at this stage, the evaluation of the rock breaking effect has been limited to comparing the sizes of the mechanical specific energy (MSE), and the change in the rock breaking efficiency caused by the difference in the shape of the cutters’ surface has not been considered. Therefore, through the establishment of numerical simulation models of a circular cutter, bevel cutter, axe cutter, wedge cutter, and triangular cutter, the evaluation of the rock breaking efficiency of special-shaped cutters was completed. The results show that the triangular cutter and the wedge cutter are suitable for the front row cutter of the polycrystalline diamond compact bit (PDC); the triangular cutter is suitable for drilling into medium−hard formations, the wedg... [more]
A Pipe Ultrasonic Guided Wave Signal Generation Network Suitable for Data Enhancement in Deep Learning: US-WGAN
Lisha Peng, Shisong Li, Hongyu Sun, Songling Huang.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: data enhancement, deep learning, defect classification, EMAT, ultrasonic guided wave testing, Wasserstein generative adversarial network
A network ultrasonic Wasserstein generative adversarial network (US-WGAN), which can generate ultrasonic guided wave signals, is proposed herein to solve the problem of insufficient datasets for pipe ultrasonic nondestructive testing based on deep neural networks. This network was trained with pre-enhanced and US-WGAN-enhanced datasets with 3000 epochs; the ultrasound signals generated by the US-WGAN were proved to be of high quality (peak signal-to-noise ratio scores in the range of 30−50 dB) and belong to the same population distribution as the original dataset. To verify the effectiveness of the US-WGAN, a fully connected neural network with seven layers was established, and the performances of the network after data enhancement using the US-WGAN and popular virtual defects were verified for the same network parameters and structures. The results show that adoption of the US-WGAN effectively suppresses the overfitting phenomenon while training the network and increases the dataset s... [more]
Unsteady Effects of Wake on Downstream Rotor at Low Reynolds Numbers
Lin Li, Wei Tan, Jianshe Zhang, Ge Han, Yanfeng Zhang.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: low Reynolds number, numerical simulation, tip clearance vortex, unsteady effects, wake
In a compressor, the periodic wake is an inherently unsteady phenomenon that affects the downstream flow conditions and loading distribution. Thus, understanding the physical mechanisms of these unsteady effects is important for eliminating flow losses and improving compressor performance, particularly at low Reynolds numbers. To understand the influence of the upstream wake on the downstream flow field structure, this paper describes numerical simulations of a one-stage high-pressure compressor at altitudes of 10−20 km. The influence of the wake on rotor flow blockage at different Reynolds numbers is analyzed, and the unsteady interaction between the upstream wake and boundary layer or tip leakage flow is discussed. The results indicate that the wake has a beneficial effect on the efficiency of the rotor at high Reynolds numbers, but this weakens and becomes negative as the Reynolds number decreases. The wake can reduce the flow blockage in the mainflow region. Due to the wake, the le... [more]
The “D2P” Approach: Digitalisation, Production and Performance in the Standardised Sustainable Deep Renovation of Buildings
Fabrizio Cumo, Federica Giustini, Elisa Pennacchia, Carlo Romeo.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: BIM, building energy performance simulation, building envelope technologies, digitalisation, in situ measurement, innovative production, off-site construction, prefabrication, residential case study, standardisation process
The carbon neutrality of the built environment plays a key role in fighting the climate crisis and fully realising ecological transition. In this field, the aim of the paper is to promote a new production paradigm that enables an integrated process from the design phase to the production of high-performance building components, to their “tailor-made installation” for the efficiency enhancement of the national residential building stock, reducing resource consumptions, costs, construction time and the associated environmental impact. The methodological approach is based on three key elements: digitalisation, production and performance. Recent technologies make it possible to achieve important goals, through the creation of the digital cataloguing of existing buildings, advanced dynamic simulations, improved energy performance for building stock and industrial production chain optimisation of the construction sector according to off-site construction criteria. This strategy was tested on... [more]
Proposal for an Improvement of Hard Coal Enrichment Accuracy in Systems with Secondary Beneficiation
Joachim Pielot, Jarosław Joostberens, Aurelia Rybak, Anna Manowska.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: hard coal enrichment, method of digital modelling, two-product jigs
There are various ways to improve the accuracy of hard coal enrichment. This article discusses the possibility of improving the accuracy of beneficiation by using the same enrichment machines located in the processing plant, introducing only the multiple (secondary) enrichment of raw coal feed. Secondary enrichment is a technology that allows for an improvement of the accuracy of mineral separation. The main advantage of this solution compared to that currently used is the lack of the necessity of introducing the crushing process. Secondary enrichment without crushing is a simple solution, and at the same time beneficial from the point of view of obtaining a commercial product with specific quantitative and qualitative parameters. This article shows the effect of this type of enrichment on the improvement of the shape of partition curves in an example of systems with two-product jigs. On the basis of the results of simulation studies, it was shown that the use of secondary enrichment r... [more]
Modelling and Performance Analysis of Cyclic Hydro-Pneumatic Energy Storage System Considering the Thermodynamic Characteristics
Lulu Gao, Dongyue Wang, Chun Jin, Tong Yi.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy storage system (ESS), heavy mining dump trucks (HMDT), hydro-pneumatic, thermodynamics
The energy storage system of electric-drive heavy mining trucks takes on a critical significance in the characteristics including excellent load capacity, economy, and high efficiency. However, the existing battery-based system does not apply to harsh cold environments, which is the common working condition for the above trucks. A type of cycle hydro-pneumatic energy storage system for the trucks was proposed in this study. The dynamic model of the system, including the dynamic and thermodynamic models of hydraulic and pneumatic parts, was built to analyze the performance of the system. Subsequently, the thermodynamic characteristics were clarified during the energy storage and released through the real test condition-based simulation. The power and energy performances of the system were studied in practice based on the above characteristics. The analysis of the results showed that the system reduced 22.03% driving power at the optimal braking energy recovery rate, the energy density w... [more]
Deviation from Darcy Law in Porous Media Due to Reverse Osmosis: Pore-Scale Approach
Desmond Batsa Dorhjie, Roman Yusupov, Vladislav Krutko, Alexey Cheremisin.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: chemical potential gradient, Darcy law, limiting pressure, reverse osmosis, sub-micron pore
Shale and tight hydrocarbons are vital to global energy dynamics. The fluid flow in sub-micron pores of tight oil reservoirs varies from bulk fluid flow. The Darcy law is widely accepted to model creeping flow in petroleum reservoirs. However, traditional reservoir modeling approaches fail to account for the sub-micron mechanisms that govern fluid flow. The accuracy of tight oil reservoir simulators has been improved by incorporating the influence of sub-micron effects. However, there are still factors that affect sub-micron fluid mobility that need investigation. The influence of a chemical potential gradient on fluid flow in sub-micron pores was modeled by solving Darcy and the transport and diluted species equations. The findings indicate that when a chemical potential gradient acts in the opposite direction of a hydraulic pressure gradient (reverse osmosis), there exists a limiting pressure threshold below which a non-linear flow pattern deviating from the Darcy equation is observe... [more]
Artificial Intelligence Approaches for Energies
Gwanggil Jeon.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
In recent years, it has been noted that deep learning, machine learning, and artificial intelligence models are growing in popularity when applying big data for energy control and decision-making processes [...]
Aspects Regarding the Optimization of Cross Geometry in Traction Asynchronous Motors Using the Theory of Nonlinear Circuits
Sorin Enache, Ion Vlad, Monica Adela Enache.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: asynchronous motors for railway traction, optimal design, simulations
Modern electrical traction uses asynchronous motors for driving railway vehicles because these motors have a lot of advantages in comparison with the classical, direct current motors. Reducing active and reactive electrical energy consumption is a concern in the case of these motors, meaning a decrease in exploitation costs. The research carried out shows, by results and simulations, the effects of the geometry optimization for the stator and rotor lamination and emphasizes how much the total and exploitation costs. Cross geometry optimization means preserving constant electromagnetic stresses, using the same gauge dimensions, preserving the constant ampere-turn for a pole pair, having a maximum torque exceeding the imposed limit, and increasing the air-gap magnetic induction. The results obtained indicatea decrease in the total cost, by 42,600 € (12.31%), for a asynchronous tractionmotor in comparison with the existing variant.
Evaluating Performance Indices of Electrostatic Precipitators
Mohamed Badran, Abdallah Mahmoud Mansour.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: collection efficiency, electrohydrodynamics, electrostatic precipitation, Modelling, particle removal, review
Utilizing electrostatic precipitators (ESPs) is an efficient particle removal method that sees a wide usage in industrial environments. This is mainly because of the low drop of the pressure flow, while retaining high collection efficiency, alongside being cost-effective. This paper reviewed previous works concerning optimizing the performance of single- and multi-stage ESPs by changing several design parameters and evaluating the effects on different performance indices, such as the corona power ratio, current-voltage characteristics, and overall collection efficiency. The review then goes through several modelling methodologies, showcasing their shortcomings and developments, as well as the relationship between the electrohydrodynamic (EHD) flow and the precipitation performance. The performance effects of using different electrode configurations and designs in terms of the number of electrodes, relative dimensions, spacings, channel lengths, and overall design were also reviewed.
Design and Implementation of a Real-Time Hardware-in-the-Loop Platform for Prototyping and Testing Digital Twins of Distributed Energy Resources
Jiaxuan Han, Qiteng Hong, Zhiwang Feng, Mazheruddin H. Syed, Graeme M. Burt, Campbell D. Booth.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Digital Twin, Distributed Energy Resources, hardware-in-the-loop testing, real-time simulation
Power systems worldwide are experiencing rapid evolvements with a massive increase of renewable generation in order to meet the ambitious decarbonization targets. A significant amount of renewable generation is from Distributed Energy Resources (DERs), upon which the system operators often have limited visibility. This can bring significant challenges as the increasing DERs’ can lead to network constraints being violated, presenting critical risks for network security. Enhancing the visibility of DERs can be achieved via the provision of communication links, but this can be costly, particularly for real time applications. Digital Twin (DT) is an emerging technology that is considered as a promising solution for enhancing the visibility of a physical system, where only a limited set of data is required to be transmitted with the rest data of interest can be estimated via the DT. The development and demonstration of DTs requires realistic testing and validation enviorment in order to acc... [more]
Predicting Vehicle Refuelling Trips through Generalised Poisson Modelling
Nithin Isaac, Akshay Kumar Saha.
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Poisson probability, prediction model, refuelling, trip counts, weather
This paper presents a model to predict the number of refuelling trips by vehicles on any given day considering weather conditions and time of the year. The predicted refuelling trips were founded on count-based data, i.e., data that contain events that occur at a certain rate. The paper presents an algorithm developed using Python programming language and the statsmodels module to achieve this. The results indicate that the GP-1 model developed in this paper is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level as it was able to converge—however, precipitation and high ambient temperature conditions are considered statistically insignificant in this model. The viability of the model was further tested on the remaining 20% of the data. Sensitivity tests indicate that there is a good correlation between the actual trips and predicted trips when 70% of the data are used to train the model. Overall, the model presented can be used to predict the number of trips taken by vehicles to refu... [more]
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