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Records with Subject: Modelling and Simulations
2349. LAPSE:2023.20478
Numerical Investigation of the Enhanced Stirring Characteristics of a Multi-Lance Top-Blowing Continuous Converting Furnace for Lance Arrangement and Variable-Velocity Blowing
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: computational fluid dynamics (CFD), continuous copper–smelting process, lance arrangement, top–blowing converter, variable–velocity blowing.
Oxygen lances are key equipment for copper converters. The effect of the lance arrangement on the mixing of a gas−slag two−phase is discussed using numerical simulation and experimental verification with a water model, and the stirring characteristics enhanced by variable−velocity blowing are explored. The results showed that the single−row lance arrangement (SA) increased the average velocity in the slag phase by 17.93% and reduced the disturbance to the metal phase by 27.78% compared to the double−row lance arrangement (DA). Compared to the constant−velocity blowing system (CSB), the sine−wave blowing system (SWB) and rectangular−wave blowing system (RWB) increased the average velocity in the slag phase by 24.03% and 13.96%, respectively, and reduced the proportion of the low−velocity area by more than 46.2%. The velocity imbalance in the SA local area enhances the mixing of the gas−slag two−phase. The variable−speed blowing improves the mass transfer and mixing effect.
2350. LAPSE:2023.20477
Real-Time Pricing-Enabled Demand Response Using Long Short-Time Memory Deep Learning
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Australian energy market operator (AEMO), demand response, LSTM, real-time pricing.
Sustainable energy development requires environment-friendly energy-generating methods. Pricing system constraints influence the efficient use of energy resources. Real-Time Pricing (RTP) is theoretically superior to previous pricing systems for allowing demand response (DR) activities. The DR approach has been useful for correcting supply−demand imbalances as technology has evolved. There are several systems for determining and controlling the DR. However, most of these solutions are unable to control rising demand or forecast prices for future time slots. This research provides a Real-Time Pricing DR model for energy management based on deep learning, where the learning framework is trained on demand response and real-time pricing. The study data in this article were taken from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), and the learning framework was trained over 17 years of data to forecast the real future energy price and demand. To investigate the suggested deep learning-based... [more]
2351. LAPSE:2023.20476
Flow Field Investigation of a Single Engine Valve Using PIV, POD, and LES
March 20, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), cycle-to-cycle variations, engine, Large Eddy Simulation (LES), Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), turbulence.
Due to stringent emission regulations, it is of practical significance to understand cycle-to-cycle variations in the combustion of fossil or renewable fuels to reach future emission regulations. The present study aims to conduct a parametric investigation to analyse the influence of the valve lift and different mass flows of an inlet valve of the test engine “Flex-OeCoS” on the flow structures. To gain a deeper understanding of the flow behaviour, an optical test bench for 2D Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) are used. Turbulence phenomena are investigated using Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) with a quadruple decomposition and the Reynolds stress transport equation. The results show good agreement between the PIV and LES. Moreover, the main flow structures are primarily affected by valve lift while being unaffected by mass flow variation. The turbulent kinetic energy within the flow field increases quadratically to the mass flow and to the decre... [more]
2352. LAPSE:2023.20464
Temperature Calculation, Test and Structure Improvement of Magnetic Coupling under High Slip
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: fluid-thermal coupling, heat dissipation structure, magnetic coupling, temperature rise, three-dimensional transient magnetic field.
The temperature effect caused by high slip has an important influence on the operation performance and reliability of magnetic coupling. Taking the self-developed single disk asynchronous magnetic coupling as the research object, the heat loss equation of the magnetic coupling is established. Based on the three-dimensional transient magnetic field simulation model of the magnetic coupling, the eddy current loss, torque, and eddy current distribution law of the magnetic coupling are obtained through simulation. The space flow field and structure temperature field distribution of the magnetic coupling are analyzed by using the fluid-thermal coupling simulation method, and the heat dissipation coefficient and temperature distribution law of the structure surfaces such as copper disk, the back lining yoke iron disk, and the aluminum disk are obtained. The test platform was built to test the torque and temperature of the magnetic coupling. The results show that the error between the test an... [more]
2353. LAPSE:2023.20453
Effects of Inorganic Minerals and Kerogen on the Adsorption of Crude Oil in Shale
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: adsorption experiment, inorganic minerals, kerogen, oil, thermal simulation of adsorption.
Shale oil stored in the shale system occurs mainly in adsorbed and free states, and ascertaining the amount of adsorbed crude oil in shale is a method of ascertaining its free oil content, which determines the accuracy of shale oil resource evaluation. Both inorganic minerals and kerogen have the ability to adsorb crude oil, but there is controversy surrounding which plays the greatest part in doing so; clarifying this would be of great significance to shale oil resource evaluation. Therefore, in this study, the evolution states of inorganic minerals and kerogen in shale were changed using pyrolysis, and the adsorbents were prepared for crude oil adsorption experiments, to explore the effects of inorganic minerals and kerogen on the crude oil adsorption of shale. The results showed that the differences in kerogen’s structural units and content in organic-rich shale (TOC = 1.60−4.52%) had no obvious effects on its crude oil adsorption properties. On the contrary, inorganic minerals, as... [more]
2354. LAPSE:2023.20449
Deep Learning-Based Transformer Moisture Diagnostics Using Long Short-Term Memory Networks
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: long short-term memory, moisture forecasting, oil-immersed insulation, power transformer.
Power transformers play a crucial role in maintaining the stability and reliability of energy systems. Accurate moisture assessment of transformer oil-paper insulation is critical for ensuring safe operating conditions and power transformers’ longevity in large interconnected electrical grids. The moisture can be predicted and quantified by extracting moisture-sensitive dielectric feature parameters. This article suggests a deep learning technique for transformer moisture diagnostics based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks. The proposed method was tested using a dataset of transformer oil moisture readings, and the analysis revealed that the LSTM network performed well in diagnosing oil insulation moisture. The method’s performance was assessed using various metrics, such as R-squared, mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean squared error, and mean signed difference. The performance of the proposed model was also compared with linear regression and random forest (RF)... [more]
2355. LAPSE:2023.20416
Hydrogen Storage on Porous Carbon Adsorbents: Rediscovery by Nature-Derived Algorithms in Random Forest Machine Learning Model
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: hydrogen storage, Machine Learning, nature-based algorithms, random forest.
Porous carbons as solid adsorbent materials possess effective porosity characteristics that are the most important factors for gas storage. The chemical activating routes facilitate hydrogen storage by adsorbing on the high surface area and microporous features of porous carbon-based adsorbents. The present research proposed to predict H2 storage using four nature-inspired algorithms applied in the random forest (RF) model. Various carbon-based adsorbents, chemical activating agents, ratios, micro-structural features, and operational parameters as input variables are applied in the ML model to predict H2 uptake (wt%). Particle swarm and gray wolf optimizations (PSO and GWO) in the RF model display accuracy in the train and test phases, with an R2 of ~0.98 and 0.91, respectively. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated the ranks for temperature, total pore volume, specific surface area, and micropore volume in first to fourth, with relevancy scores of 1 and 0.48. The feasibility of algorithms... [more]
2356. LAPSE:2023.20407
Thermohydraulic and Economic Evaluation of a New Design for Printed Circuit Heat Exchangers in Supercritical CO2 Brayton Cycle
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, cost design analysis, printed circuit heat exchanger, thermal hydraulic performance.
The present study focused on the analysis of a new geometrical modification of the conventional zig-zag channel for Printed Circuit Heat Exchangers. The research was carried out using OpenFOAM and Salome software, which were used for the CFD analysis and the construction of the computational domain. For the development of the study, three types of channel geometries were defined: a modified zig-zag channel, a conventional zig-zag channel, and a straight channel. The results show that the modified zig-zag channel achieves better thermal hydraulic performance compared to that of the conventional zig-zag channel, evidenced by a 7.6% increase in the thermal performance factor. The modified zig-zag channel proposed in the research caused a 1.5% reduction of the power consumption of supercritical Brayton cycle compressors. Additionally, the modified zig-zag channel achieves a maximum efficiency of 49.1%, which is 1.5% higher compared to that of the conventional zig-zag channel. The above res... [more]
2357. LAPSE:2023.20399
Numerical Simulation and Optimization of Inorganic Lead-Free Cs3Bi2I9-Based Perovskite Photovoltaic Cell: Impact of Various Design Parameters
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Cs3Bi2I9, defect density, ETL, fill factor (FF), HTL, PCE, perovskite solar cell.
The lead halide-based perovskite solar cells have attracted much attention in the photovoltaic industry due to their high efficiency, easy manufacturing, lightweight, and low cost. However, these lead halide-based perovskite solar cells are not manufactured commercially due to lead-based toxicity. To investigate lead-free inorganic perovskite solar cells (PSCs), we investigated a novel Cs3Bi2I9-based perovskite configuration in SCAPS-1D software using different hole transport layers (HTLs). At the same time, WS2 is applied as an electron transport layer (ETL). Comparative analysis of the various design configurations reveals that ITO/WS2/Cs3Bi2I9/PEDOT:PSS/Au offers the best performance with 20.12% of power conversion efficiency (PCE). After optimizing the thickness, bandgap, defect density, and carrier density, the efficiency of the configuration is increased from 20.12 to 24.91%. Improvement in other performance parameters such as short circuit current (17.325 mA/cm2), open circuit v... [more]
2358. LAPSE:2023.20394
Characteristics of Porosity Distribution and Gas Migration in Different Layers of Comprehensive Working Face Goaf
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: fracture field distribution, fracture zone, gas mass fraction, gas migration and storage, growth characteristics, permeability distribution model.
The fracture field and permeability distribution model of comprehensive working face goaf was integrated upon the theoretical examination to investigate the fracture field distribution law of goaf and gas migration and accumulation characteristics, and this model has been applied to the mathematical model of gas migration and accumulation in goaf. The ANSYS FLUENT numerical simulation software was used to obtain the characteristics of gas migration and accumulation in goaf and its influencing factors and analyze the applicability of solving the features of gas migration and proliferation using the porosity model of layer division in goaf. The results were as follows: the porosity around the caving zone was a little big, whereas the porosity in the middle was a little small. The porosity was almost equal along the inclination and strike in a symmetrical distribution. The porosity occurred at the fracture zone with an “O” shape. As the gob layer height increased, the porosity tended to b... [more]
2359. LAPSE:2023.20391
Advanced Techniques for the Modeling and Simulation of Energy Networks
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
The need for a “smarter” energy grid infrastructure, with the large-scale integration of renewables and a better demand−response mechanism, is leading to an ever-increasing complexity of next-generation energy networks [...]
2360. LAPSE:2023.20385
A Bayesian Optimization-Based LSTM Model for Wind Power Forecasting in the Adama District, Ethiopia
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Bayesian optimization, deep learning, forecasting, LSTM, time series.
Renewable energies, such as solar and wind power, have become promising sources of energy to address the increase in greenhouse gases caused by the use of fossil fuels and to resolve the current energy crisis. Integrating wind energy into a large-scale electric grid presents a significant challenge due to the high intermittency and nonlinear behavior of wind power. Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for safe and efficient integration into the grid system. Many prediction models have been developed to predict the uncertain and nonlinear time series of wind power, but most neglect the use of Bayesian optimization to optimize the hyperparameters while training deep learning algorithms. The efficiency of grid search strategies decreases as the number of hyperparameters increases, and computation time complexity becomes an issue. This paper presents a robust and optimized long-short term memory network for forecasting wind power generation in the day ahead in the context of Ethiop... [more]
2361. LAPSE:2023.20377
Dynamic Simulation of MFT and BT Processes on a 660 MW Ultra-Supercritical Circulating Fluidized Bed Boiler
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: 660 MW ultra-supercritical CFB boiler, boiler trip, main fuel trip.
In order to study the dynamic characteristics of the 660 MW ultra-supercritical circulating fluidized bed (CFB) boiler when the main fuel trip (MFT) and boiler trip (BT) are triggered, a dynamic simulation model of the 660 MW ultra-supercritical circulating fluidized bed boiler was established on the Apros simulation platform. The model dynamically simulated the MFT and BT processes at 100% BMCR, 75% THA, and 50% THA conditions, respectively. The steady-state simulation results showed a high accuracy compared with the designed parameters. The dynamic simulation results showed that after triggering the MFT and BT, owing to the huge thermal inertia, the bed temperature and steam temperature decreased lowly. For 100% BMCR and 75% THA conditions, the moisture separator always worked in dry state during the MFT and BT processes. For the 50% THA condition, the moisture separator quickly switched from dry to wet operation after the boiler triggers MFT and BT and gradually switched from wet to... [more]
2362. LAPSE:2023.20376
CFD Analysis of Solar Greenhouse Thermal and Humidity Environment Considering Soil−Crop−Back Wall Interactions
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, microclimate, solar greenhouse, thermal and humidity environment.
In the study of solar greenhouses, microclimate, soil, and back walls have an important influence on the greenhouse thermal environment because of their good heat storage and release characteristics. The transpiration of crops makes indoor humidity increase sharply, which is the main factor affecting indoor humidity distribution. Therefore, it is of great significance to grasp the microclimate change law of solar greenhouses and study the coupling effect of thermal and humidity environment. In this paper, based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD), a three-dimensional model of the thermal and humidity environment of a solar greenhouse is established, and the indoor temperature and humidity distribution under the influence of soil, crops, and back walls are considered. The CFD model initialization uses binary fitting functions to fit the temperature distribution of soil, back wall, and air. The distribution law of the temperature field and relative humidity field of the solar greenhous... [more]
2363. LAPSE:2023.20374
A Comprehensive Review of Shipboard Power Systems with New Energy Sources
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: digital twin, new energy, ship power scheduling, ship power system, spatio-temporal prediction.
A new energy ship is being developed to address energy shortages and greenhouse gas emissions. New energy ships feature low operational costs and zero emissions. This study discusses the characteristics and development of solar-powered ships, wind-powered ships, fuel cell-powered ships, and new energy hybrid ships. Three important technologies are used for the power system of the new energy ship: new-energy spatio-temporal prediction, ship power scheduling, and Digital Twin (DT). Research shows that new energy spatio-temporal prediction reduces the uncertainty for a ship power system. Ship power scheduling technology guarantees safety and low-carbon operation for the ship. DT simulates the navigational environment for the new energy ship to characterize the boundary of the shipboard’s new energy power generation. The future technical direction for new energy ship power systems is also being discussed.
2364. LAPSE:2023.20367
A Computational Scheme for Stochastic Non-Newtonian Mixed Convection Nanofluid Flow over Oscillatory Sheet
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: chemical reaction, mixed convective flow, non-Newtonian fluid, stability, stochastic scheme.
Stochastic simulations enable researchers to incorporate uncertainties beyond numerical discretization errors in computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Here, the authors provide examples of stochastic simulations of incompressible flows and numerical solutions for validating these newly emerging stochastic modeling methods. A numerical scheme is constructed for finding solutions to stochastic parabolic equations. The scheme is second-order accurate in time for the constant coefficient of the Wiener process term. The stability analysis of the scheme is also provided. The scheme is applied to the dimensionless heat and mass transfer model of mixed convective non-Newtonian nanofluid flow over oscillatory sheets. Both the deterministic and stochastic energy equations use temperature-dependent thermal conductivity. The stochastic model is more general than the deterministic model. The results are calculated for both flat and oscillatory plates. Casson parameter, mixed convective parameter, the... [more]
2365. LAPSE:2023.20357
Multi-Channel Assessment Policies for Energy-Efficient Data Transmission in Wireless Underground Sensor Networks
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: channel, distortion, Energy Efficiency, Machine Learning, quality assessment, reactive communication, wireless underground sensor networks.
Wireless Underground Sensor Networks (WUGSNs) transmit data collected from underground objects such as water substances, oil substances, soil contents, and others. In addition, the underground sensor nodes transmit the data to the surface nodes regarding underground irregularities, earthquake, landslides, military border surveillance, and other issues. The channel difficulties of WUGSNs create uncertain communication barriers. Recent research works have proposed different types of channel assessment techniques and security approaches. Moreover, the existing techniques are inadequate to learn the real-time channel attributes in order to build reactive data transmission models. The proposed system implements Deep Learning-based Multi-Channel Learning and Protection Model (DMCAP) using the optimal set of channel attribute classification techniques. The proposed model uses Multi-Channel Ensemble Model, Ensemble Multi-Layer Perceptron (EMLP) Classifiers, Nonlinear Channel Regression models... [more]
2366. LAPSE:2023.20352
Electrical Load Forecasting Using LSTM, GRU, and RNN Algorithms
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: deep learning models, electric power system, load forecasting, Machine Learning, short-term load forecasting.
Forecasting the electrical load is essential in power system design and growth. It is critical from both a technical and a financial standpoint as it improves the power system performance, reliability, safety, and stability as well as lowers operating costs. The main aim of this paper is to make forecasting models to accurately estimate the electrical load based on the measurements of current electrical loads of the electricity company. The importance of having forecasting models is in predicting the future electrical loads, which will lead to reducing costs and resources, as well as better electric load distribution for electric companies. In this paper, deep learning algorithms are used to forecast the electrical loads; namely: (1) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), (2) Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), and (3) Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). The models were tested, and the GRU model achieved the best performance in terms of accuracy and the lowest error. Results show that the GRU model achi... [more]
2367. LAPSE:2023.20333
Clustering Method for Load Demand to Shorten the Time of Annual Simulation
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: clustering, DBSCAN, RLC, unit commitment.
UC (unit commitment) for grid operation has been attracting increasing attention due to the growing interest in global warming. Compared to other methods, MILP, which is one of the calculation methods for UC, has the disadvantage of a long calculation time, although it is more accurate in considering constraints and in finding solutions. However, RLCs (representative load curves) require a more accurate clustering method to select representative dates because the calculation results vary greatly depending on the clustering method. DBSCAN, one of the clustering methods, has the feature that the clustering accuracy varies depending on two parameters. Therefore, this paper proposes two algorithms to automatically determine the two parameters of DBSCAN to perform RLCs using DBSCAN. In addition, since DBSCAN has the feature of being able to represent different data as two-dimensional elements, a survey of the data to be used as clustering was conducted. As a result, the proposed algorithms... [more]
2368. LAPSE:2023.20318
Design of an Algorithm for Modeling Multiple Thermal Zones Using a Lumped-Parameter Model
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: algorithm, buildings, experimental tests, lumped parameters, mathematical model, reduced-scale models.
The generation of mathematical models for the analysis of buildings with multiple thermal zones is a large and complex task. Furthermore, the order and complexity of the dynamical model are increased by the number of included thermal zones. To overcome this problem, this paper presents an algorithm to define the mathematical model automatically, using the geometric and physics parameters as inputs. Additionally, the spatial position of each thermal zone must be recorded in an arrangement called a contact matrix. The algorithm for modeling systems with multiple thermal zones is the main contribution of this work. This algorithm is presented in pseudocode format and as an annex, an implementation in MATLAB software. One of the advantages of this methodology is that it allows us to work with parallelepipeds and not necessarily cubic thermal zones. The algorithm allows us to generate mathematical models with symbolic variables, starting from the knowledge of how many thermal zones compose... [more]
2369. LAPSE:2023.20316
Design of a Test Section for the Experimental Investigation of the WCLL Manifold Hydraulic Features
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics, experiments, manifold, thermal hydraulics, water technology for DEMO, WCLL.
A scaled-down test section representative of an Outboard Segment manifold of the Water-Cooled Lithium Lead Breeding Blanket for the European DEMO has been designed for installation and test in a high- mass flow branch of the W-HYDRA facility, under construction at the premises of ENEA Brasimone Research Center. The test section should confirm the flow repartition recently computed in the different breeding units on the full-scale manifold, validating at the same time the computational tools used for the design and analysis. The detailed objectives and requirements of the test section, as well as the scaling rationale and procedure adopted for its design, are presented in the paper. The final design of the test section is discussed. The preliminary analyses of the developed design are also presented and show that it is compliant with the initial objectives.
2370. LAPSE:2023.20307
The Effective Field in the T(x) Hysteresis Model
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: electrical steel, geometric interpretation, Modelling, T(x) model.
Hysteresis loops constitute the source of important information for the designers of magnetic circuits in power transformers. The paper focused on the possibility to interpret the phenomenological T(x) model in terms of effective field vs. magnetization dependence. The interdependence of anhysteretic curve and hysteresis loops was emphasized. The concept of the anhysteretic plane introduced at the end of the last century by Sablik and Langman was subject to a tangible interpretation within the hyperbolic model framework. A novel geometric interpretation of the “effective field” related to the concept of affine transformation was introduced. It was shown in the paper that minor hysteresis loops of grain-oriented electrical steel may be described with the proposed formalism.
2371. LAPSE:2023.20304
Study of the Aerodynamic Performance of Pantograph Bowhead with Serrated Lower Surface in the Thermal Management Systems of the High-Speed Train Electrical Devices
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: aerodynamic characteristics, pantograph bowhead, serrated structure, thermal management.
The thermal management problems of traction drive systems for high-speed trains are of great importance for the operation reliability of high-speed trains. The thermal performance of transformer and traction rectifier are mainly affected by the aerodynamic performance of pantograph. Nine bowheads with different sawtooth structures on the lower surface are proposed and a CFD numerical model is built with Transition SST turbulence model. The influence of the number and height of sawteeth on the aerodynamic characteristics of the bowhead flow field are investigated. The results show that compared with the rectangular bowhead, the aerodynamic drag of the 5w3h-shaped bowhead is reduced by 8.6%, 8.7%, and 9.9% at train speeds of 250 km/h, 300 km/h, and 350 km/h, respectively. The promotion of aerodynamic performance of pantograph is beneficial to improve the thermal characteristics of traction drive systems for high-speed trains.
2372. LAPSE:2023.20284
Reconstruction of Lake-Level Changes by Sedimentary Noise Modeling (Dongying Depression, Late Eocene, East China)
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: cyclostratigraphy, Dongying Depression, lake level, sedimentary noise modeling.
The late Eocene succession of the Dongying Depression forms a highly productive hydrocarbon source. However, due to lack of an unambiguous fine chronostratigraphic framework for the late Eocene stratigraphy, it is challenging to understand the paleolake’s evolution and the driven mechanism of lake-level variation, a limitation which hinders hydrocarbon exploration. In this work, high-resolution gamma-ray logging data were analyzed to carry out the cyclostratigraphic analysis of the third member (Es3) of the Shahejie Formation in the Dongying Depression. Significant 405-kyr eccentricity cycles were recognized based on time series analysis and statistical modeling of estimated sedimentation rates. We abstracted ~57 m cycles of the GR data in the Es3 member, which were comparable with the long eccentricity cycles (~405-kyr) of the La2004 astronomical solution, yielding a 6.43 Myr long astronomical time scale (ATS) for the whole Es3 member. The calibrated astronomical age of the third/four... [more]
2373. LAPSE:2023.20281
Modelling the Operation Process of Light Utility Vehicles in Transport Systems Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Semi-Markov Approach
March 17, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: maintenance, Monte Carlo algorithm, reliability analysis, semi-Markov process, simulation approach, transport system.
This research paper presents studies on the operation process of the Honker 2000 light utility vehicles that are part of the Polish Armed Forces transport system. The phase space of the process was identified based on the assumption that at any given moment the vehicle remains in one of four states, namely, task execution, awaiting a transport task, periodic maintenance, or repair. Vehicle functional readiness and technical suitability indices were adopted as performance measures for the technical system. A simulation model based on Monte Carlo methods was developed to determine the changes in the operational states. The occurrence of the periodic maintenance state is strictly determined by a planned and preventive strategy of operation applied within the analysed system. Other states are implementations of stochastic processes. The original source code was developed in the MATLAB environment to implement the model. Based on estimated probabilistic characteristics, the authors validate... [more]
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