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Records with Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Showing records 1772 to 1796 of 5729. [First] Page: 1 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 Last
Localization Method and Finite Element Modelling of the Mid-Point Anchor of High-Speed Railway Distributed in Long Straight Line with Large Slope
Xiuhua Wang, Kun Yang, Yongzhi Min, Yongliang Wang.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: FEM, location method, long and steep grade, mid-point anchor, railway catenary, tension difference.
In order to ensure the safe and reliable operation of a high-speed railway, the precise positioning of the mid-point anchor in the catenary is very important. In view of the two problems in the calculation of the mid-point anchor position of the catenary in a long ramp section, the calculation accuracy is low, and the calculation of the central anchor clamp position is lacking. In this study, the predetermined location of the mid-point anchor is chosen based on the mid-point anchor location principle and the line condition, and the range of the allowable error of the mid-point anchor setting is determined according to the predetermined position of the mid-point anchor. Secondly, by considering the impact of the line ramp and using the measured span length, the tension difference of the clue in the direction of the line is calculated. Then, the theoretical location of the mid-point anchor clamp is determined using the downhill component and the tension difference. Finally, the theoretic... [more]
Ultra-Lean Premixed Turbulent Combustion: Challenges of RANS Modelling
Lorenzo Sforza, Suliman Abdelwahid, Tommaso Lucchini, Angelo Onorati.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: CFM, Computational Fluid Dynamics, FAM, flamelet, premixed turbulent combustion, RANS, ultra-lean combustion.
The main challenge of improving spark ignition (SI) engines to achieve ever increasing thermal efficiencies and near-zero pollutant emissions today concerns developing turbulent combustion under homogeneous ultra-lean premixed mixtures (HULP). This continuous shift of the lean operation limit entails questions on the applicability limits of the combustion models used to date for SI engine design and optimization. In this work, an assessment of flamelet-based models, widely used in RANS SI engines simulations of premixed turbulent combustion, is carried out using an open-source 3D-CFD platform to clarify the applicability limits on HULP mixtures. Two different consolidated approaches are selected: the Coherent Flame Model (CFM) and the Flame Area Model (FAM). Both methodologies are embedded by the authors into the same numerical structure and compared against measurements over a simplified and controlled flame configuration, which is representative of engine-like conditions. The experim... [more]
Numerical Investigation of the Adsorption Process of Zeolite/Water in a Thermochemical Reactor for Seasonal Heat Storage
Elham Abohamzeh, Georg Frey.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: adsorption process, Computational Fluid Dynamics, energy storage density, thermochemical heat storage, zeolite.
Zeolite 13X molecular sieve with high sorption capacity and significant sorption rate has been considered a promising candidate for seasonal heat storage. In this study, a code is developed to simulate the adsorption process between zeolite and water in all ranges of partial pressures, temperatures, and sorbate loadings. The results from the proposed code were compared with experiments and good agreement was observed. After validation, the developed model was used to study the effective parameters involved in the adsorption process of binder-free Zeolite 13X. A parametric study considering various temperatures and water content in the inflow air was conducted and the influence of different factors on the outlet temperature and adsorption enthalpy has been studied. This parametric study gives a good insight into the measures which can be taken for achieving the desired released energy or having the outlet temperature in the preferred range. The simulations have been conducted in a varie... [more]
Modeling and Analysis of Voltage Harmonic for Three-Level Neutral-Point-Clamped H-Bridge Inverter Considering Dead-Time
Wen-Jie Wu, Liang-Deng Hu, Zi-Yue Xin, Cheng Guo.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: 3L-NPC H-bridge, analytical modelling, dead-time, voltage harmonic.
The advantages of three-level neutral-point-clamped (NPC) H-bridge inverters, such as simple topological structure, low device voltage stress, high equivalent switching frequency, and highly expansible capacity, have made them the preferred choice for inverters matching with medium voltage high-capacity multi-phase open-end winding vessel propulsion motors. To quantitatively evaluate the propulsion motors’ harmonics, electromagnetic vibration, and noise caused by pulse-width modulation (PWM) and device dead-time, it is necessary to research the mathematical modeling of pulse-width modulated output voltage harmonics in consideration of dead-time. In this paper, the principle of the phase-disposition PWM method of the 3L-NPC H-bridge inverters was firstly introduced. Then, the analytical models of output voltage harmonics with and without considering the effect of dead-time were established based on the double Fourier series approach and the harmonic distribution of the dead-time effect... [more]
Numerical Analysis on Impact of Thickness of PEM and GDL with and without MPL on Coupling Phenomena in PEFC Operated at Higher Temperature Such as 363 K and 373 K
Akira Nishimura, Kyohei Toyoda, Daiki Mishima, Syogo Ito, Eric Hu.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: current density distribution, higher temperature, MPL, numerical simulation, PEFC, relative humidity, thickness of PEM and GDL.
The aim of this study is to clarify the impact of the thickness of a gas diffusion layer (GDL) and a micro porous layer (MPL) on the distributions of gas, H2O, and current density in a polymer electrolyte fuel cell (PEFC) which is operated at 363 K and 373 K and with various thicknesses of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) as well as a relative humidity (RH) of supply gas. These investigations are carried out by numerical simulation using the 3D model with COMSOL Multiphysics. In the case of Nafion 115, which is the thicker PEM, the change in the molar concentration of H2O from the inlet to the outlet with MPL is larger than that without MPL irrespective of the thickness of GDL, Tini and RH condition. In the case of Nafion NRE-212, which is the thinner PEM, the change in the molar concentration of H2O from the inlet to the outlet is larger with MPL than that without MPL in the case of TGP-H-060 (the thicker commercial GDL), while that is smaller with MPL than that without MPL in the c... [more]
Modelling and Simulation of Heat Pumps for Simultaneous Heating and Cooling, a Special Issue
Paul Byrne.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Refrigeration and heat pump systems are used as cooling and heating devices, but each one can also carry out both cooling and heating [...]
Comprehensive CFD Aerodynamic Simulation of a Sport Motorcycle
Krzysztof Wiński, Adam Piechna.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), DDES, hybrid models, motorcycle aerodynamics, RANS, SAS, turbulence modelling.
Nowadays, aerodynamics is a key focal point in the vehicle design process. Beyond its direct impact on the performance of a vehicle, it also has significant effects on economics and safety. In the last decade numerical methods, mainly Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), have established themselves as a reliable tool that assists in the design process and complements classical tunnel tests. However, questions remain about the possible obtained accuracy, best practices and applied turbulence models. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study of motorcycle aerodynamics using CFD methods which, compared to the most common car aerodynamics analysis, has many specific features. The motorcycle, along with its rider, constitutes a shape with very complex aerodynamic properties. A detailed insight into the flow features is presented with detailed commentary. The front fairing, the front wheel and its suspension were identified as the main contributors to the aerodynamic drag of the motorcy... [more]
Simulation Analysis of Issues with Grid Disturbance for a Photovoltaic Powered Virtual Synchronous Machine
Takahiro Takamatsu, Takashi Oozeki, Dai Orihara, Hiroshi Kikusato, Jun Hashimoto, Kenji Otani, Takahiro Matsuura, Satoshi Miyazaki, Hiromu Hamada, Teru Miyazaki.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: current limitation, de-loading, grid-forming, photovoltaic, virtual synchronous machine.
The increase in inverter-based resources associated with the increased installation of PV sources is a concern because it reduces the inertia of the power system during peak PV generation periods. As a countermeasure to reduce grid inertia, the addition of pseudo-inertia using virtual synchronous machines can be selected, and PV generation can cooperatively contribute to the stable operation of the power system by using the suppressed output as reserve power. However, few studies have analyzed VSMs that do not use batteries and use PV as a resource (PV-VSM) in simulations, including grid interconnection and solar radiation fluctuations, and it is necessary to clarify the issues and discuss countermeasures. In this study, electromagnetic transient response analysis was applied to a VSM connected to a two-generator system, simulations were performed, and the following findings were reported and countermeasure methods for the problem were proposed. When the PV capacity is insufficient for... [more]
Numerical Simulation for Redundant Electro-Hydrostatic Servo-Actuators under Certain Special Conditions
Liviu Dinca, Radu Bogateanu, Jenica-Ileana Corcau, Alexandru Dumitrache, Bogdan Suatean.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: AMESim software, electro-hydrostatic, numerical simulation, servo-actuators.
This work presents some numerical simulations, performed using AMESim software, for a system composed by two redundant servo-actuators. Certain operating conditions are taken into account for these two electro-hydrostatic servo-actuators, which are coupled to the command surface (aileron) of a transport aircraft. We first considered the situation of slight asymmetries in the construction of the servo-actuators, then a situation in which one servo-actuator fails at maximum flight speed, and then at a medium flight speed, and finally we considered the effect of gusts upon the system. Small differences in the construction of the servo-actuators were taken into consideration by modifying each of the pump displacements, one by +2% and one by −2%, from the nominal value. It is possible that many other asymmetries exist in the construction of servo-actuators, such as different liquid leakages in the cylinders or pumps, small differences in the controller coefficients, and so on. These differe... [more]
Numerical Simulation of Ventilation Performance in Mushroom Solar Greenhouse Design
Yiming Li, Fujun Sun, Wenbin Shi, Xingan Liu, Tianlai Li.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: numerical simulation, solar greenhouse, system design, ventilation.
Numerical simulation is an effective tool for the thermal management of propulsion systems. Moreover, it contributes to the design and performance assessment of solar greenhouses for mushroom ventilation. Because the planning and design of the clustered solar greenhouse are still undiscovered, this study has developed a 3-D mathematical model suitable for a large-scale park of mushroom solar greenhouses based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) theory. The effects of the orientation arrangement, horizontal spacing, vertical spacing of the cultivation racks, and the building distance between adjacent greenhouses on the ventilation performance were analyzed. The numerical simulation showed good agreement with the experimental measurement. The CFD results indicated that the reasonable layout of cultivation racks in mushroom solar greenhouses is a north-south arrangement. The horizontal spacing of cultivation racks has a significant influence on the wind speed and cooling rate, and the o... [more]
Sensitivity Analysis of Fluid−Fluid Interfacial Area, Phase Saturation and Phase Connectivity on Relative Permeability Estimation Using Machine Learning Algorithms
Sanchay Mukherjee, Russell T. Johns.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: fluid–fluid interfacial area, out-of-bag predictor importance, phase connectivity, relative permeability, saturation, sensitivity analysis, state function.
Recent studies have shown that relative permeability can be modeled as a state function which is independent of flow direction and dependent upon phase saturation (S), phase connectivity (X), and fluid−fluid interfacial area (A). This study evaluates the impact of each of the three state parameters (S, X, and A) in the estimation of relative permeability. The relative importance of the three state parameters in four separate quadrants of S-X-A space was evaluated using a machine learning algorithm (out-of-bag predictor importance method). The results show that relative permeability is sensitive to all the three parameters, S, X, and A, with varying magnitudes in each of the four quadrants at a constant value of wettability. We observe that the wetting-phase relative permeability is most sensitive to saturation, while the non-wetting phase is most sensitive to phase connectivity. Although the least important, fluid−fluid interfacial area is still important to make the relative permeabil... [more]
An Exponential Solvent Chamber Geometry for Modeling the VAPEX Process
Ali Cheperli, Farshid Torabi, Morteza Sabeti, Aria Rahimbakhsh.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: exponential model, oil production prediction, solvent chamber propagation, transition region thickness, VAPEX process.
Accurate simulation of the VAPEX process relies heavily on precise modeling of the solvent chamber propagation. In the previously developed models, the solvent chamber possesses either a linear, circular, or parabolic shape. In this study, an exponential solvent chamber model was considered to represent the propagation of the chamber throughout the spreading and falling stages of the VAPEX process. The tuning parameters of the proposed model include the exponential function coefficient and the transition region thickness. These parameters are altered by employing a MATLAB-based Genetic Algorithm (GA) to minimize the error between determined and measured cumulative produced oil in four experimental case studies presented in the literature. According to the outcomes, the proposed method can accurately adjust the cumulative produced oil to the measured values in both spreading and falling stages. Additionally, the thickness of the transition region obtained by this model is in reasonable... [more]
Influence of Temperature on the Adsorption and Diffusion of Heavy Oil in Quartz Nanopore: A Molecular Dynamics Study
Dongsheng Chen, Wei Zheng, Taichao Wang, Fan Liu, Tong Cheng, Hengyuan Chen, Tingting Miao.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Adsorption, diffusion, heavy oil, molecular dynamics simulation, nanopore.
The desorption of heavy oil is one of the important indicators affecting the development efficiency of the remaining oil in nanopores. However, the study of the adsorption and diffusion mechanisms of heavy oil molecules in nanopores remains scarce. In this work, the influences of temperature on the adsorption and diffusion properties of the heavy oil four-fractions in quartz nanopore have been investigated via molecular dynamics simulations. Our results show that the heavy oil molecules will form a denser multilayer adsorption oil layer on the nanopore surface, and high temperature can alter the adsorption behaviors of the heavy oil four-fractions. As the temperature increases, the saturate molecules are desorbed from the nanopore surfaces, but the aromatic, resin, and asphaltene molecules maintain a tendency to aggregate towards the nanopore surface. In particular, the agglomeration behaviors of most saturate, aromatic and asphaltene molecules in nanopore can be suppressed by the conf... [more]
Modeling of Turbulent Heat-Transfer Augmentation in Gas-Droplet Non-Boiling Flow in Diverging and Converging Axisymmetric Ducts with Sudden Expansion
Maksim A. Pakhomov, Viktor I. Terekhov.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: confuser, diffuser, droplet-laden flow, droplets evaporation, heat transfer, pipe, RANS, sudden expansion, turbulence.
The effect of positive (adverse) and negative (favorable) longitudinal pressure gradients on the structure and heat transfer of gas-droplet (air and water) flow in axisymmetric duct with sudden expansion are examined. The superimposed pressure gradient has a large influence on the flow structure and heat transfer in a two-phase mist flow in both a confuser and a diffuser. A narrowing of the confuser angle leads to significant suppression of flow turbulence (more than four times that of the gas-drop flow after sudden pipe expansion without a pressure gradient at φ = 0°). Recirculation zone length decreases significantly compared to the gas-droplet flow without a longitudinal pressure gradient (by up to 30%), and the locus of the heat-transfer maximum shifts slightly downstream, and roughly aligns with the reattachment point of the two-phase flow. Growth of the diffuser opening angle leads to additional production of kinetic energy of gas flow turbulence (almost twice as much as gas-drop... [more]
Thermal Performance Evaluation of Window Shutters for Residential Buildings: A Case Study of Abu Dhabi, UAE
Abdullah Khalid Abdullah, Abeer Darsaleh, Shaimaa Abdelbaqi, Maatouk Khoukhi.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: energy consumption, shading device, Simulation, window shutters.
The research is aimed at comparing residential building windows’ thermal performance with and without thermal shutters, and at examining thermal shutters’ performance upon being insulated with various types of insulation, glares, outside temperatures, and solar radiation. As an example, one case study based out of the UAE is chosen, covering the status of the housing typology and traits of building energy consumption. The study uses the primary tool of computer simulation software “DesignBuilder” to examine the impact of window shutters design on energy consumption and environmental impact. It was found that the usage of conventional insulating materials within the shutters is sufficient for the house to attain a reduction in heat gain of up to 50%. Furthermore, the application of the rolling shutters with analyzed control strategies recorded a potential reduction in equivalent CO2 emissions level, up to 15%, which would decrease the environmental burden on a national level. The simula... [more]
Optimization Research on Burner Arrangement of Landfill Leachate Concentrate Incinerator Based on “3T+E” Principle
Wangsong Wu, Jiajin Liu, Shuya Guo, Zhukai Zeng, Guangyao Cui, Zhongqing Yang.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: incinerator, landfill leachate, numerical simulation, waste liquid incineration.
At present, the treatment of landfill leachate is an unavoidable challenge facing environmental problems. Incineration is one of the effective methods to treat landfill leachate which meets the 3T+E principle and can avoid the production of dioxin in the process of treatment. Based on the 3T+E principle, this paper studied the influence of burner arrangement on the treatment of landfill leachate through the numerical simulation method. The research showed that the symmetrical arrangement of reverse swirl and same direction flow were more conducive to the combustion of landfill leachate concentrations in the incinerator so that the residence time of the flue gas in the second combustion chamber can also exceed 2 s. When the nozzle arrangement height is 0.9 m−0.8 m, the wall collision rate of concentrated liquid droplets can be reduced, and the burnout rate of landfill leachate was the highest, reaching more than 92%.
Running Dynamics of Rail Vehicles
Jan Kalivoda, Larysa Neduzha.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
The importance of simulation calculations in developing railway vehicles and their subsystems is consistently growing compared to physical experiments and track tests [...]
Karlovitz Numbers and Premixed Turbulent Combustion Regimes for Complex-Chemistry Flames
Andrei N. Lipatnikov, Vladimir A. Sabelnikov.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: combustion regime diagram, complex chemistry, Karlovitz number, turbulent flame.
The structure of premixed turbulent flames and governing physical mechanisms of the influence of turbulence on premixed burning are often discussed by invoking combustion regime diagrams. In the majority of such diagrams, boundaries of three combustion regimes associated with (i) flame preheat zones broadened locally by turbulent eddies, (ii) reaction zones broadened locally by turbulent eddies, and (iii) local extinction are based on a Karlovitz number Ka, with differently defined Ka being used to demarcate different combustion regimes. The present paper aims to overview different definitions of Ka, comparing them, and suggesting the most appropriate choice of Ka for each combustion regime boundary. Moreover, since certain Karlovitz numbers involve a laminar flame thickness, the influence of complex combustion chemistry on the thickness and, hence, on various Ka and relations between them is explored based on results of complex-chemistry simulations of unperturbed (stationary, planar,... [more]
The Use of Singular Spectrum Analysis and K-Means Clustering-Based Bootstrap to Improve Multistep Ahead Load Forecasting
Winita Sulandari, Yudho Yudhanto, Paulo Canas Rodrigues.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: bootstrap aggregating, calendar variation, electricity load forecasting, singular spectrum analysis, time series forecasting.
In general, studies on short-term hourly electricity load modeling and forecasting do not investigate in detail the sources of uncertainty in forecasting. This study aims to evaluate the impact and benefits of applying bootstrap aggregation in overcoming the uncertainty in time series forecasting, thereby increasing the accuracy of multistep ahead point forecasts. We implemented the existing and proposed clustering-based bootstrapping methods to generate new electricity load time series. In the proposed method, we use singular spectrum analysis to decompose the series between signal and noise to reduce the variance of the bootstrapped series. The noise is then bootstrapped by K-means clustering-based generation of Gaussian normal distribution (KM.N) before adding it back to the signal, resulting in the bootstrapped series. We apply the benchmark models for electricity load forecasting, SARIMA, NNAR, TBATS, and DSHW, to model all new bootstrapped series and determine the multistep ahead... [more]
Influence of a Type of Rock Mass on the Stability of Headings in Polish Underground Copper Mines Based on Boundary Element Method
Karolina Adach-Pawelus, Natalia Szyry.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: copper ore mining, numerical modeling, rock mass stability.
This paper presents the results of a numerical analysis of the impact of rock mass geomechanical parameters on the stability of preparatory headings located within the Legnica-Glogow Copper District. The paper shows the results of numerical calculations prepared for headings driven in two rock mass types with different strength and deformation parameters, which allow illustrating their influence on the safety of mining performed in underground copper ore mines. Numerical modeling was performed using the Examine2D 7.0 software, in the plane strain state. Numerical simulations were performed for an isotropic and for a homogenous medium. The rock medium was described with an elastic model. The parameters of the rock mass for numerical modeling were calculated using the Hoek−Brown classification. The Coulomb−Mohr strength criterion was adopted as a measure for assessing the rock mass effort. Numerical simulations confirmed the dependance between the stability of the analyzed excavations an... [more]
The Stress Evolution of Adjacent Working Faces Passing through an Abandoned Roadway and the Damage Depth of the Floor
Song Shi, Yichen Miao, Haikuan Wu, Zhipeng Xu, Changwu Liu.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: abandoned roadway, adjacent working face, field monitoring, numerical simulation, stress evolution.
An advanced break or a vast region of pressurisation may occur when the working face passes through an abandoned roadway, resulting in a roof falling or water inrush. The stress evolution of the working face passing through an abandoned roadway in a coal mine was comprehensively discussed using theoretical analysis, numerical simulation, and field monitoring. In this study, the calculated critical width of the abandoned roadway where the main roof was bound to an advanced break was 5.4 m. Reducing the suspended length of the main roof is beneficial to the stability of the working face’s passage across the abandoned roadway. The maximum abutment stress on the roof occurred at the working face through a semi-abandoned roadway, reaching 44.3 MPa. Subsequently, it decreased sharply until the working face completely passed and returned to the normal level. The damage depths of the floor strata from the field monitoring were 15 and 20 m, which showed that the use of hydraulic fracturing tech... [more]
3D Fracture Propagation Simulation and Pressure Decline Analysis Research for I-Shaped Fracture of Coalbed
Chengwang Wang, Zixi Guo, Lifeng Zhang, Yunwei Kang, Zhenjiang You, Shuguang Li, Yubin Wang, Huaibin Zhen.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: coupling conditions, fracture propagation model, I-shaped fracture, numerical method, pressure decline analysis.
After hydraulic fracturing, some treatments intended for production enhancement fail to yield predetermined effects. The main reason is the insufficient research about the fracture propagation mechanism. There is compelling evidence that I-shaped fracture, two horizontal fractures at the junction of coalbed and cover/bottom layer, and one vertical fracture in the coalbed have formed in part of the coalbed after hydraulic fracturing. Therefore, this paper aims at I-shaped fracture propagation simulation. A novel propagation model is derived on the basis of a three-dimensional (3D) model, and the coupling conditions of vertical fracture and horizontal fractures are established based on the flow rate distribution and the bottom-hole pressure equality, respectively. Moreover, an associated PDA (pressure decline analysis of post-fracturing) model is established. Both models complement with each other and work together to guide fracturing treatment. Finally, a field case is studied to show t... [more]
Accident Modeling and Analysis of Nuclear Reactors
Jianhui Wu, Jingen Chen, Chunyan Zou, Xiaoxiao Li.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Nuclear energy has played and will continue playing a key role in the fight against climate change due to its extremely low green-house gas emissions, and high energy density and reliability [...]
The Fault Effects on the Oil Migration in the Ultra-Deep Fuman Oilfield of the Tarim Basin, NW China
Yongfeng Zhu, Yintao Zhang, Xingxing Zhao, Zhou Xie, Guanghui Wu, Ting Li, Shuai Yang, Pengfei Kang.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: carbonate reservoir, migration, segmentation, strike-slip fault, Tarim Basin, ultra-deep.
A giant, ultra-deep (>7000 m) strike-slip fault-related oilfield has been found in the central depression of the Tarim Basin. However, little research has addressed this discovery to understand the fault effects on the oil migration, which constrains the oil exploitation deployment and well optimization. Based on fault modeling and fluid analysis, we present the effects of fault segment on the oil segmentation and migration in the ultra-deep Fuman Oilfield. The results show a distinct fault segmentation and also subsequent variable fault architecture and non-connected fracture network other than a through-going fault zone. There are fault segment-related isolated fractured reservoirs and fluid variation along the fault strike, which indicates that a large oilfield comprises a series of unconnected small oil reservoirs along the fault segments. The fluid segmentation and molecular indicator of dibenzothiophenes reveal that there is a variable petroleum lateral migration along the strike... [more]
Assessing China’s Investment Risk of the Maritime Silk Road: A Model Based on Multiple Machine Learning Methods
Jing Xu, Ren Zhang, Yangjun Wang, Hengqian Yan, Quanhong Liu, Yutong Guo, Yongcun Ren.
March 28, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: deep learning, international country risk guide, investment risk prediction and assessment, K-nearest neighbor, Machine Learning.
The maritime silk road policy of China brings opportunities to companies relating to overseas investment. Despite the investment potentials, the risks cannot be ignored and have still not been well assessed. Considering the fact that ICRG comprehensive risk has certain subjectivity, it is not completely applicable to China’s overseas investment. Therefore, based on the data of the China Statistical Yearbook and International Statistical Yearbook, a new indictor is adopted to better capture the Chinese investment risk and to make our prediction more objective. In order to acquire the ability to predict the investment risk in the future which is essential to stakeholders, machine learning techniques are applied by training the ICRG data of the previous year and Outward Foreign Direct Investment (OFDI) data of the next year together. Finally, a relative reliable link has been built between the OFDI indicator in the next year and the left ICRG indicators in the last year with both the best... [more]
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