This study presents an innovative framework for leveraging the potential of AI in energy systems through a multidimensional approach. Despite the increasing importance of sustainable energy systems in addressing global climate change, comprehensive frameworks for effectively integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques into these systems are lacking. The challenge is to develop an innovative, multidimensional approach that evaluates the feasibility of integrating AI and ML into the energy landscape, to identify the most promising AI and ML techniques for energy systems, and to provide actionable insights for performance enhancements while remaining accessible to a varied audience across disciplines. This study also covers the domains where AI can augment contemporary and future energy systems. It also offers a novel framework without echoing established literature by employing a flexible and multicriteria methodology to rank energy systems based on thei... [more]

Time-of-use (TOU) electricity tariffs are a demand side measure to ease balancing of demand and supply to cope with a rising share of renewables in a country’s electricity mix. In general, consumers require compensation for accepting these tariffs. This study analyzes how attitudes drive consumers’ willingness to choose a TOU tariff in Germany. To identify attitudinal profiles, I use an exploratory factor analysis on items capturing positive and negative attitudes towards TOU tariffs, climate change awareness, and belief in energy saving measures. I use these factors as predictors in an ordered logit specification to estimate consumers’ stated willingness to choose a TOU tariff. Three factors are significant: positive and negative attitudes towards TOU tariffs, and climate change awareness. These findings highlight that decision makers who aim at balancing demand and supply through the use of TOU tariffs should focus on informing consumers about the positive impacts of these tariffs on... [more]

Hydrocarbon exploration and production activities are basic to the functioning of the oil and gas industry, while concession contracts and fees are central concepts in the aforementioned activities. The authors consider several questions regarding these concepts, such as: what is the legislative, institutional, and fiscal framework in certain European countries regarding hydrocarbon exploration and production? What are the major differences between them? Finally, is there room for improvement of the framework in the Republic of Croatia? To answer these questions, the authors contacted some of the relevant institutions and accessed official government gazettes, institution websites, legal aggregators, journal articles, books, and different legal publications regarding the oil and gas industry for several European countries, namely the Kingdom of Norway, the Russian Federation, the Republic of Austria, and the Republic of Croatia. As a result, this paper presents an overview of legislati... [more]

Based on the DY spillover index model, we explore the static and dynamic risk spillover relationships between the Chinese carbon and stock markets from the perspective of the entire market and different industry levels. Furthermore, we examine the impact of diverse types of exogenous events on the risk spillover effects. The empirical results of the sectoral stock market show that the carbon market is the primary risk taker, and the risk spillover to the carbon market is mainly from high-carbon-emitting industries, such as the oil and electricity industries. However, the risk spillover relationship will be reversed under the shocks from exogenous events. The shocks from different types of exogenous events enhance the risk spillover from the carbon market to the stock market, specifically to the oil sector. The Sino−U.S. trade war and the COVID-19 outbreak are more impactful than government policies. These findings help investors to understand the risk conduct patterns among different f... [more]

Access to energy resources and broadly understood energy security are some of the critical factors influencing the economic development of countries. This article deals with the problem of assessing the energy security of countries, considering this problem in various periods of time, examining the past, present and forecasted future conditions at the same time. For this purpose, the Dynamic Multi-Criteria Decision Making (DMCDM) methodology was developed and applied, based on the classic and fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods and the International Energy Security Risk Index (IESRI). In particular, the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW)/Fuzzy SAW and New Easy Approach to Fuzzy PROMETHEE II (NEAT F-PROMETHEE) methods were used. These methods are significantly different from each other in the calculation procedures used. The study showed that methodological differences between these methods cause large differences in the results of the assessment of energy security of count... [more]

Energy security, as one of the most important components of state security, is a permanent element of academic debates and political discussions. Owing to the multidimensional and multifaceted nature of energy security, defining it is a complex process, requiring the consideration of a wide range of factors straddling economics, geology, ecology and geopolitics which decide whether we are dealing with the state of energy security or the lack of it. Energy security is usually equated with the security of supply. Another group of definitions of energy security focuses on the concept of security of services. A different approach to energy security issues is presented by energy exporting countries, whose objective is to ensure sufficiently high and stable income from sales of energy resource exports (security of demand). The subject of this paper is an analysis of the energy security of hydropower-producing countries—Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Energy security has been analyzed in the conte... [more]

The aim of this paper is to analyze energy pathways for a fossil fuel rich developing country towards an energy transition considering national and international oil availability using Ecuador as a reference. An integrated assessment model has been developed to simulate energy transition scenarios considering constraints on oil availability at the national and global level. Results show that if current trends in energy demand and supply persist, energy scarcity would start around 2040 due to depletion of national oil reserves and restricted access to foreign oil. This would trigger a degrowth in economic activity in sectors with high dependency on petroleum products. Scenarios with conservative efforts might partially revert the increasing use of fossil fuels supported by policies for energy efficiency and substitution of liquid fuels with electricity mainly from renewables. However, energy shortages would still be foreseeable as well as a decay of the economy. Under a maximum efforts... [more]

The volatility of oil price as a key energy resource for modern economies has a significant impact on the macroeconomic situation. In addition to affecting aggregated production, consumption, employment and inflation, oil shocks can affect the economy in a more nuanced way. One consequence of the turmoil in the oil market may be a shift in the employment structure between the tradable and non-tradable sectors, which we investigate in this paper. The aim of this study is to test how oil price volatility affects the structure of employment in Central and Eastern European countries. Our main hypothesis is that oil price volatility causes a temporal employment reallocation between tradable and non-tradable sectors. To verify this assumption, we created Interacted Panel VAR (IPVAR), which showed that the shocks of oil price volatility affect the employment structure and this impact is conditioned by the level of dependence on energy imports and the exchange rate regime. The constructed impu... [more]

Energy transitions inherit complex processes full of surprises, unintended consequences, erroneous decisions, uncertainties, paradoxical situations, and sometimes sheer failures [...]

Investments into wind power generation may be hampered by the uncertainty of future revenues caused by the natural variability of the wind resource, the impact of climate change on wind potential and future electricity prices, and the regulatory risks. We quantify the uncertainty of the economic value of wind farms in France, Germany, and Denmark, and evaluate the cost of support mechanisms needed to ensure the profitability of wind farms under present and future climates. To this end, we built a localised model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices. Our study reveals that support mechanisms are needed for current market conditions and the current climate, as well as under future climate conditions according to several scenarios for climate change and energy transition. The cost of support mechanisms during a 15-year period is evaluated to EUR 3.8 to EUR 11.5 billion per year in France, from EUR 15.5 to EUR 26.5 billion per year in Germany, a... [more]

This paper examines 16 years (2004−2019) of research on energy in eleven Central and Eastern European countries. The findings are based on an analysis of 3534 academic articles indexed in the Web of Knowledge database. The paper presents a systematic overview of the authorship, journal of publication, countries covered, and article content. The main conclusion is that the discussion is fragmented, because most of the journals (800 were identified) published only one paper on energy in the region. About one-fourth of the research was published in a handful of major journals. Male researchers dominated our dataset and there has been a visible increase in the average number of authors per article. The country most often covered by the research was Poland and energy efficiency was the most-discussed issue and renewables the most-frequently researched energy source. Surprisingly, nuclear energy and energy security, considered to be the dominant features of the CEE region energy picture, wer... [more]

Carbon peaking and neutralization in the next 20 to 40 years are significant to limit the temperature increase to well below 2 °C and avoid the negative impacts of climate change caused by the sharp increase in carbon dioxide emissions [...]

The energy return on energy invested, EROI or EROEI, is the ratio of the energy produced by a system to the energy expended to build, maintain, and finally dismantle the system. It is an important parameter for evaluating the efficiency of energy-producing technologies. In this paper, we examine the concept of EROEI from the general viewpoint of dynamic dissipative systems, providing insights on a wider range of applications. In general, natural resources can be assimilated to energy stocks characterized by a potential that can be exploited by creating intermediate stocks. This transformation is typical of dissipative systems and for the first time, we report that the Lotka−Volterra model, usually confined to the study of the biology of populations, can represent a powerful tool to estimate the EROEI of dissipative systems and, in particular, those systems subjected to depletion. This assessment is important to evaluate the ongoing energy transition since it provides us with a model fo... [more]

The aim of the article is to present the complexity of social mechanisms related to the systemic energy transformation from the perspective of the classical social exchange theory. Considering the direction of actions taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere as obvious, the author of the article analyses the issue through the prism of social and economic dilemmas of the process, focusing on the mechanisms of energy transition in relation to Peter Blau’s exchange theory. The dilemmas of the systemic energy transition are presented in relation to the diverse games of interest that mark the social playing field around the analysed issue. The article outlines the social playing field of energy transition using the example of an economically strong country seeking to strengthen its position and a developing country interested in gaining energy independence. The analysis of the systemic conditions and the political activities carried out made it possible to define possibl... [more]

Capacity remuneration mechanisms operate in many European countries. In 2018, Poland implemented a centralized capacity market to ensure appropriate funding for the existing and new power generation units to improve long-term energy security. One of the declarations made while the mechanism was deployed was its beneficial influence on incentives for investments in new units. In this context, this paper aims to analyze the effects of the capacity mechanism adopted for investments in new power generation units that may be financed under the capacity market mechanism in Poland. The analysis is conducted for four types of capacity market units, the existing, refurbishing, planned, and demand-side response types, and includes the final results of capacity auctions. The results prove that the primary beneficiaries of the capacity market in Poland have been the existing units (including the refurbishing ones) responsible for more than 80% of capacity obligation volumes contracted for 2021−202... [more]

In the EU 28, the installed heating appliance stock is quite old, with an actual replacement rate of 4%. This is directly reflected in the average efficiency of the installed heating systems, where around 60% of the stock is rated with an energy class of C or D (the lowest classes of the energy label scale). The European project HARP aims at raising consumers’ awareness of the planned replacement of their old and inefficient heating appliances with more efficient and renewable solutions. In this direction, an energy labeling methodology for old appliances has been developed to rate the installed stock before the introduction of the EU energy label. The methodology has been developed for space heating appliances and water heaters, targeting two types of users: end consumers and professional users. The validation considered about 4600 space heating appliances and 800 water heaters built between 1972 and 2019. Three heating appliances and two water heaters were tested in the laboratory, c... [more]

A consignment auction aims to increase political feasibility by reducing the financial burden of initial permits allocation and to do the role of price discovery. However, previous analytical models presented contradictory results for the price discovery function of a consignment auction. Thus, this study reexamines whether a consignment auction can perform its price discovery function. The study uses a simple game model with several assumptions differentiated from previous analytical models: explicit consideration of the secondary market and firms as price-takers with various behaviors to respond to uncertainty about the price in the secondary market. Firms are classified into three types: speculators who seek arbitrage, doctrinarians who determine a permit demand based on an estimation of their marginal abatement cost, and neutralists who keep a permit demand the same as initial emission endowments. The results reveal that when a consignment auction was introduced, the expected equil... [more]

This paper poses the question: ‘can energy innovation initiatives in Innovation Playgrounds foster a new ‘energy urbanity’ through active citizen participation in the energy transition?’ The concept of ‘Innovation Playgrounds’ and an accompanying Framework are described and linked to implementation evidence of the EU H2020 positive energy research and innovation project +CityxChange, related to emergent active citizen participation in two cities: Limerick, Ireland and Trondheim, Norway. The purpose of the study is to demonstrate that spatially clustered energy innovation initiatives in urban areas involving active citizen participation contribute to a new ‘energy urbanity’ for the energy transition. The research methods are based on a comparative case study approach and close observation of two case sites, with a focus on the ‘Innovation Playground’ area of each city. The article’s three main conclusions are: that a Framework approach to active citizen participation in energy innovatio... [more]

The new energy industry (NEI) is key to achieving a clean and low-carbon economy. Improving its technical efficiency, a factor reflecting the ability of an enterprise or industry to produce maximum economic outputs from a given set of inputs and production technologies, is vital for the healthy development of the NEI. Nevertheless, due to the fragmentation of industry data, it is still difficult to accurately measure the technical efficiency of China’s NEI and understand the driving factors behind it. Based on the panel data derived from 17,457 observations on new energy enterprises in 29 Chinese provinces during 1998 and 2013 (latest data available), this paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) for the first time to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors of the technical efficiency of China’s NEI. The results show that the technical efficiency of China’s NEI was relatively low and increased mod... [more]

The main objective of the research is to analyze the impact of financial sector development indicators and financial institutions access on primary energy use based on a sample of European Union transition members over 20 years period (1996−2017) through panel cointegration and causality tests that allow for cross-section dependence. The causality analysis revealed that the direction of the causality among financial development indicators, financial institutions access, and primary energy use varied among the countries. On the other side, panel cointegration coefficients disclosed that the financial development index positively affected the primary energy use, but private credit did not have a significant effect on the primary energy use. Furthermore, financial institutions’ access had a significant negative impact on primary energy use. However, country-level cointegration coefficients indicated that the financial development index positively affected the primary energy use in Bulgari... [more]

This study investigates the influence of oil price shocks on GDP per capita, exchange rate, and total trade turnover in Azerbaijan using the Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) method to data collected from 1992 to 2019. The estimation results of the SVAR method conclude that oil price shocks (rise in oil prices) affect GDP per capita and total trade turnover positively, whereas its influence on the exchange rate is negative in the case of Azerbaijan. According to results of this study, Azerbaijan and similar oil-exporting countries should reduce the dependence of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and total trade turnover from oil resources and its prices in the global market. Therefore, these countries should attempt to the diversification of GDP per capita, the exchange rate, and other sources of total trade turnover.

Accurate and timely macro forecasting requires new and powerful predictors. Carbon emissions data with high trading frequency and short releasing lag could play such a role under the framework of mixed data sampling regression techniques. This paper explores the China case in this regard. We find that our multiple autoregressive distributed lag model with mixed data sampling method setup outperforms either the auto-regressive or autoregressive distributed lag benchmark in both in-sample and out-of-sample nowcasting for not only the monthly changes of the purchasing managers’ index in China but also the Chinese quarterly GDP growth. Moreover, it is demonstrated that such capability operates better in nowcasting than h-step ahead forecasting, and remains prominent even after we account for commonly-used macroeconomic predictive factors. The underlying mechanism lies in the critical connection between the demand for carbon emission in excess of the expected quota and the production expans... [more]

The theft of electrical energy is one of the main problems faced by electricity distribution utilities, especially in developing countries. Aware of the difficulties in combating non-technical losses (NTLs) in Brazil, the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) established tolerable limits for the percentage of non-technical losses to each Brazilian distribution utility. Despite the notable progress made by ANEEL, when comparing public utility NTLs and their regulatory targets in the last decade, it was observed that the goals defined by this agency were not able to lead to a general reduction in NTLs in the country. Thus, the search for alternative methodologies to deal with the topic is necessary. A more attractive alternative to the ANEEL’s model is an efficient frontier model. This paper describes a stochastic frontier cost model for panel data whose equation is specified to provide the tolerable limits for the percentage of NTLs. The proposed model was applied to a panel of data c... [more]

With the deregulation of the retail electricity market and the increase of the types of electricity price packages, electricity retail companies provide the recommended service of price packages for users, so as to improve the market competitiveness and user stickiness of enterprises. The existing research does not fully consider the impact of user characteristics and package attributes on recommendation results. This paper proposes a hybrid recommendation method of retail electricity price package based on the characteristics of power users and the multi-attribute utility of price package. Firstly, the hierarchical model of hybrid characteristics of power users in retail electricity market is constructed based on the tree structure, and all characteristics are analyzed quantitatively by proximity measurement method. Then, based on the multi-attribute utility theory, the utility model of retail electricity price package to users is constructed. Secondly, the accurate recommendation of... [more]

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate within the structural break detection context. Based on monthly data from January 1996 to April 2019, this paper identifies structural breaks in movements of oil price and examines the dynamic relationship between crude oil prices and the U.S. exchange rate movement by introducing the economic policy uncertainty and using the TVP-VAR (Time-Varying Parameter-Vector Auto Regression ) model. Empirical results indicate that shocks to crude oil prices have immediate and short-term impacts on movements in the exchange rate which are emphasized during the confidence intervals of structural breaks. Oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are interrelated and influence movements in the U.S. exchange rate. Since the U.S. dollar is the main currency of the international oil market and the U.S. has become a major exporter of crude oil, the transmission of price shocks to the U.S. exchange rate... [more]