LAPSE:2023.34651
Published Article
LAPSE:2023.34651
Profitability and Revenue Uncertainty of Wind Farms in Western Europe in Present and Future Climate
Bastien Alonzo, Silvia Concettini, Anna Creti, Philippe Drobinski, Peter Tankov
April 27, 2023
Investments into wind power generation may be hampered by the uncertainty of future revenues caused by the natural variability of the wind resource, the impact of climate change on wind potential and future electricity prices, and the regulatory risks. We quantify the uncertainty of the economic value of wind farms in France, Germany, and Denmark, and evaluate the cost of support mechanisms needed to ensure the profitability of wind farms under present and future climates. To this end, we built a localised model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices. Our study reveals that support mechanisms are needed for current market conditions and the current climate, as well as under future climate conditions according to several scenarios for climate change and energy transition. The cost of support mechanisms during a 15-year period is evaluated to EUR 3.8 to EUR 11.5 billion per year in France, from EUR 15.5 to EUR 26.5 billion per year in Germany, and from EUR 1.2 to EUR 3.3 billion per year in Denmark, depending on the scenario considered and the level of penetration of wind energy.
Keywords
climate change, climate variability, demand uncertainty, net present value, wind energy
Suggested Citation
Alonzo B, Concettini S, Creti A, Drobinski P, Tankov P. Profitability and Revenue Uncertainty of Wind Farms in Western Europe in Present and Future Climate. (2023). LAPSE:2023.34651
Author Affiliations
Alonzo B: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS), Paris Sciences Lettres Research University, Sorbonne Université, Centre National de Recherche Sc
Concettini S: Climate Economics Chair, 75002 Paris, France; Energy and Prosperity Chair, 75002 Paris, France
Creti A: Climate Economics Chair, 75002 Paris, France; Centre de Géopolitique de L’énergie et des Matières Premières, Paris Dauphine-Paris Sciences Lettres University, 75016 Paris, France
Drobinski P: Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS), Paris Sciences Lettres Research University, Sorbonne Université, Centre National de Recherche Sc [ORCID]
Tankov P: Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique, Ecole Nationale de Statistique et Administration Economique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, 91120 Palaiseau, France
Journal Name
Energies
Volume
15
Issue
17
First Page
6446
Year
2022
Publication Date
2022-09-03
Published Version
ISSN
1996-1073
Version Comments
Original Submission
Other Meta
PII: en15176446, Publication Type: Journal Article
Record Map
Published Article

LAPSE:2023.34651
This Record
External Link

doi:10.3390/en15176446
Publisher Version
Download
Files
[Download 1v1.pdf] (4.1 MB)
Apr 27, 2023
Main Article
License
CC BY 4.0
Meta
Record Statistics
Record Views
81
Version History
[v1] (Original Submission)
Apr 27, 2023
 
Verified by curator on
Apr 27, 2023
This Version Number
v1
Citations
Most Recent
This Version
URL Here
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2023.34651
 
Original Submitter
Auto Uploader for LAPSE
Links to Related Works
Directly Related to This Work
Publisher Version