This book contains the successful invited submissions [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11] to a Special Issue of Energies on the subject area of “Forecasting Models of Electricity Prices”.

The importance of neural network (NN) modelling is evident from its performance benefits in a myriad of applications, where, unlike conventional techniques, NN modeling provides superior performance without relying on complex filtering and/or time-consuming parameter tuning specific to applications and their wider ranges of conditions. In this paper, we employ NN modelling with training data generation based on sensitivity analysis for the prediction of building energy consumption to improve performance and reliability. Unlike our previous work, where insignificant input variables are successively screened out based on their mean impact values (MIVs) during the training process, we use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot to generate reliable data with a conservative or progressive point of view, which overcomes the issue of data insufficiency of the MIV method: By properly setting boundaries for input variables based on the ROC plot and their statistics, instead of complet... [more]

To overcome the difficulty of accurately determining the load state of a wet ball mill during the grinding process, a method of mill load identification based on improved empirical wavelet transform (EWT), multiscale fuzzy entropy (MFE), and adaptive evolution particle swarm optimization probabilistic neural network (AEPSO_PNN) classification is proposed. First, the concept of a sliding frequency window is introduced based on EWT, and the adaptive frequency window EWT algorithm, which is used to decompose the vibration signals recorded under different load states to obtain the intrinsic mode components, is proposed. Second, a correlation coefficient threshold is used to select the sensitive mode components that characterize the state of the original signal for signal reconstruction. Finally, the MFE of the reconstructed signal is used as the characteristic vector to characterize the load state of the mill, and the partial mean value of MFE is calculated. The results show that the mean... [more]

Conventional indoor climate design and control approaches are based on static thermal comfort/sensation models that view the building occupants as passive recipients of their thermal environment. Recent advances in wearable sensing technologies and their generated streaming data are providing a unique opportunity to understand the user’s behaviour and to predict future needs. Estimation of thermal comfort is a challenging task given the subjectivity of human perception; this subjectivity is reflected in the statistical nature of comfort models, as well as the plethora of comfort models available. Additionally, such models are using not-easily or invasively measured variables (e.g., core temperatures and metabolic rate), which are often not practical and undesirable measurements. The main goal of this paper was to develop dynamic model-based monitoring system of the occupant’s thermal state and their thermoregulation responses under two different activity levels. In total, 25 participan... [more]

The marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) technique is an application of electromagnetic (EM) waves to image the electrical resistivity of the subsurface underneath the seabed. The modeling of marine CSEM is a crucial and time-consuming task due to the complexity of its mathematical equations. Hence, high computational cost is incurred to solve the linear systems, especially for high-dimensional models. Addressing these problems, we propose Gaussian process (GP) calibrated with computer experiment outputs to estimate multi-frequency marine CSEM profiles at various hydrocarbon depths. This methodology utilizes prior information to provide beneficial EM profiles with uncertainty quantification in terms of variance (95% confidence interval). In this paper, prior marine CSEM information was generated through Computer Simulation Technology (CST) software at various observed hydrocarbon depths (250−2750 m with an increment of 250 m each) and different transmission frequencies (0.12... [more]

Chemical−biological systems, such as bioreactors, contain stochastic and non-linear interactions which are difficult to characterize. The highly complex interactions between microbial species and communities may not be sufficiently captured using first-principles, stationary, or low-dimensional models. This paper compares and contrasts multiple data analysis strategies, which include three predictive models (random forests, support vector machines, and neural networks), three clustering models (hierarchical, Gaussian mixtures, and Dirichlet mixtures), and two feature selection approaches (mean decrease in accuracy and its conditional variant). These methods not only predict the bioreactor outcome with sufficient accuracy, but the important features correlated with said outcome are also identified. The novelty of this work lies in the extensive exploration and critique of a wide arsenal of methods instead of single methods, as observed in many papers of similar nature. The results show... [more]

The Eclat algorithm is a typical frequent pattern mining algorithm using vertical data. This study proposes an improved Eclat algorithm called ETPAM, based on the tissue-like P system with active membranes. The active membranes are used to run evolution rules, i.e., object rewriting rules, in parallel. Moreover, ETPAM utilizes subsume indices and an early pruning strategy to reduce the number of frequent pattern candidates and subsumes. The time complexity of ETPAM is decreased from O(t2) to O(t) as compared with the original Eclat algorithm through the parallelism of the P system. The experimental results using two databases indicate that ETPAM performs very well in mining frequent patterns, and the experimental results using four databases prove that ETPAM is computationally very efficient as compared with three other existing frequent pattern mining algorithms.

Clustering techniques can group genes based on similarity in biological functions. However, the drawback of using clustering techniques is the inability to identify an optimal number of potential clusters beforehand. Several existing optimization techniques can address the issue. Besides, clustering validation can predict the possible number of potential clusters and hence increase the chances of identifying biologically informative genes. This paper reviews and provides examples of existing methods for clustering genes, optimization of the objective function, and clustering validation. Clustering techniques can be categorized into partitioning, hierarchical, grid-based, and density-based techniques. We also highlight the advantages and the disadvantages of each category. To optimize the objective function, here we introduce the swarm intelligence technique and compare the performances of other methods. Moreover, we discuss the differences of measurements between internal and external... [more]

Accurately predicting the reheater steam temperature over both short and medium time periods is crucial for the efficiency and safety of operations. With regard to the diverse temporal effects of influential factors, the accurate identification of delay orders allows effective temperature predictions for the reheater system. In this paper, a deep neural network (DNN) and a genetic algorithm (GA)-based optimal multi-step temporal feature selection model for reheater temperature is proposed. In the proposed model, DNN is used to establish a steam temperature predictor for future time steps, and GA is used to find the optimal delay orders, while fully considering the balance between modeling accuracy and computational complexity. The experimental results for two ultra-super-critical 1000 MW power plants show that the optimal delay orders calculated using this method achieve high forecasting accuracy and low computational overhead. Moreover, it is argued that the similarities of the two re... [more]

In order to solve the problem of the inaccuracy of the traditional online operation risk assessment model based on a physical mechanism and the inability to adapt to the actual operation of massive online operation monitoring data, this paper proposes an online operation risk assessment of the wind power system of the convolution neural network (CNN) considering multiple random factors. This paper analyzes multiple random factors of the wind power system, including uncertain wind power output, load fluctuations, frequent changes in operation patterns, and the electrical equipment failure rate, and generates the sample data based on multi-random factors. It uses the CNN algorithm network, offline training to obtain the risk assessment model, and online application to obtain the real-time online operation risk state of the wind power system. Finally, the online operation risk assessment model is verified by simulation using the standard network of 39 nodes of 10 machines New England syst... [more]

The difficulty in precisely detecting and locating an ear within an image is the first step to tackle in an ear-based biometric recognition system, a challenge which increases in difficulty when working with variable photographic conditions. This is in part due to the irregular shapes of human ears, but also because of variable lighting conditions and the ever changing profile shape of an ear’s projection when photographed. An ear detection system involving multiple convolutional neural networks and a detection grouping algorithm is proposed to identify the presence and location of an ear in a given input image. The proposed method matches the performance of other methods when analyzed against clean and purpose-shot photographs, reaching an accuracy of upwards of 98%, but clearly outperforms them with a rate of over 86% when the system is subjected to non-cooperative natural images where the subject appears in challenging orientations and photographic conditions.

In biopharmaceutical manufacturing, a new single-use technology using disposable equipment is available for reducing the work of change-over operations compared to conventional multi-use technology that use stainless steel equipment. The choice of equipment technologies has been researched and evaluation models have been developed, however, software that can extend model exposure to reach industrial users is yet to be developed. In this work, we develop and demonstrate a prototype of an online decision-support tool for the multi-objective evaluation of equipment technologies in sterile filling of biopharmaceutical manufacturing processes. Multi-objective evaluation models of equipment technologies and equipment technology alternative generation algorithms are implemented in the tool to support users in choosing their preferred technology according to their input of specific production scenarios. The use of the tool for analysis and decision-support was demonstrated using four productio... [more]

Predictive analytics is usually cited as one of the most important pillars of the digital transformation. For the oil industry, specifically, it is a common belief that issues like integrity and maintenance could benefit from predictive analytics. This paper presents the development and the application of a process-monitoring tool in a real process facility. The PMA (Predictive Maintenance Application) system is a data-driven application that uses a multivariate analysis in order to predict the system behavior. Results show that the use of a multivariate approach for process monitoring could not only detect an early failure at a metering system days before the operation crew, but could also successfully identify, among hundreds of variables, the root cause of the abnormal situation. By applying such an approach, a better performance of the monitored equipment is expected, decreasing its downtime.

Fruit packaging is a time-consuming task due to its low automation level. The gentle handling required by some kinds of fruits and their natural variations complicates the implementation of automated quality controls and tray positioning for final packaging. In this article, we propose a method for the automatic localization and pose estimation of apples captured by a Red-Green-Blue (RGB) camera using convolutional neural networks. Our pose estimation algorithm uses a cascaded structure composed of two independent convolutional neural networks: one for the localization of apples within the images and a second for the estimation of the three-dimensional rotation of the localized and cropped image area containing an apple. We used a single shot multi-box detector to find the bounding boxes of the apples in the images. Lie algebra is used for the regression of the rotation, which represents an innovation in this kind of application. We compare the performances of four different network ar... [more]

Oxygen is one of the most important energies used in converter steelmaking processes of integrated iron and steel works. Precisely forecasting oxygen consumption before processing can benefit process control and energy optimization. This paper assumes there is a linear relationship between the oxygen consumption and input materials, and random noises are caused by other unmeasurable materials and unobserved reactions. Then, a novel hybrid prediction model integrating multiple linear regression (MLR) and Gaussian process regression (GPR) is introduced. In the hybrid model, the MLR method is developed to figure the global trend of the oxygen consumption, and the GPR method is applied to explore the local fluctuation caused by noise. Additionally, to accelerate the computational speed on the practical data set, a K-means clustering method is devised to respectively train a number of GPR models. The proposed hybrid model is validated with the actual data collected from an integrated iron a... [more]

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) is an effective method to optimize energy consumption patterns. Since the concept of NILM was proposed, extensive research has focused on energy disaggregation or load identification. The traditional method is to disaggregate mixed signals, and then identify the independent load. This paper proposes a multi-label classification method using Random Forest (RF) as a learning algorithm for non-intrusive load identification. Multi-label classification can be used to determine which categories data belong to. This classification can help to identify the operation states of independent loads from mixed signals without disaggregation. The experiments are conducted in real environment and public data set respectively. Several basic electrical features are selected as the classification feature to build the classification model. These features are also compared to select the most suitable features for classification by feature importance parameters. The clas... [more]

Improved-performance day-ahead electricity demand forecast is important to deliver necessary information for right decision of energy management of microgrids. It supports microgrid operators and stakeholders to have better decisions on microgrid flexibility, stability and control. The available conventional forecasting methods for electricity demand at national or regional level are not effective for electricity demand forecasting in microgrids. This is due to the fact that the electricity consumption in microgrids is many times less than the regional or national demands and it is highly volatile. In this paper, an integrated Artificial Intelligence (AI) based approach consisting of Wavelet Transform (WT), Simulated Annealing (SA) and Feedforward Artificial Neural Network (FFANN) is devised for day-ahead prediction of electric power consumption in microgrids. The FFANN is the basic forecasting engine of the proposed model. The WT is utilized to extract relevant features of the target... [more]

An accurate forecast of the electricity consumption is particularly important to both consumers and system operators. The purpose of this study is to develop a forecasting method that provides such an accurate forecast of the month-ahead hourly electricity consumption in the case of medium industrial consumers, therefore assuring an intelligent energy management and an efficient economic scheduling of their resources, having the possibility to negotiate in advance appropriate billing tariffs relying on accurate hourly forecasts, in the same time facilitating an optimal energy management for the dispatch operator. The forecasting method consists of developing first non-linear autoregressive, with exogenous inputs (NARX) artificial neural networks (ANNs) in order to forecast an initial daily electricity consumption, a forecast that is being further processed with custom developed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks with exogenous variables support in order to refine the daily f... [more]

It is difficult to manually process and analyze large amounts of data. Therefore, to solve a given problem, it is easier to reach the solution by studying the data obtained from the environment of the problem with computational intelligence methods. In this study, pool boiling heat flux was estimated in the isolated bubble regime using two optimization methods (genetic and artificial bee colony algorithm) and three machine learning algorithms (decision tree, artificial neural network, and support vector machine). Six boiling mechanisms containing eighteen different parameters in the genetic and the artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithms were used to calculate overall heat flux of the isolated bubble regime. Support vector machine regression (SVMReg), alternating model tree (ADTree), and multilayer perceptron (MLP) regression only used the heat transfer equation input parameters without heat transfer equations for prediction of pool boiling heat transfer over a horizontal tube. The perf... [more]

(1) Background: Recommendation algorithms have played a vital role in the prediction of personalized recommendation for clinical decision support systems (CDSSs). Machine learning methods are powerful tools for disease diagnosis. Unfortunately, they must deal with missing data, as this will result in data error and limit the potential patterns and features associated with obtaining a clinical decision; (2) Methods: Recent years, collaborative filtering (CF) have proven to be a valuable means of coping with missing data prediction. In order to address the challenge of missing data prediction and latent feature extraction, neighbor-based and latent features-based CF methods are presented for clinical disease diagnosis. The novel discriminative restricted Boltzmann machine (DRBM) model is proposed to extract the latent features, where the deep learning technique is adopted to analyze the clinical data; (3) Results: Proposed methods were compared to machine learning models, using two diffe... [more]

As is well known, the correct diagnosis for cancer is critical to save patients’ lives. Support vector machine (SVM) has already made an important contribution to the field of cancer classification. However, different kernel function configurations and their parameters will significantly affect the performance of SVM classifier. To improve the classification accuracy of SVM classifier for cancer diagnosis, this paper proposed a novel cancer classification algorithm based on the dragonfly algorithm and SVM with a combined kernel function (DA-CKSVM) which was constructed from a radial basis function (RBF) kernel and a polynomial kernel. Experiments were performed on six cancer data sets from University of California, Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository and two cancer data sets from Cancer Program Legacy Publication Resources to evaluate the validity of the proposed algorithm. Compared with four well-known algorithms: dragonfly algorithm-SVM (DA-SVM), particle swarm optimization-SVM... [more]

Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas is a worldwide problem that needs to be solved urgently for sustainable development in the future. The solubility of CO2 in ionic liquids is one of the important basic data for capturing CO2. Considering the disadvantages of experimental measurements, e.g., time-consuming and expensive, the complex parameters of mechanism modeling and the poor stability of single data-driven modeling, a multi-model fusion modeling method is proposed in order to predict the solubility of CO2 in ionic liquids. The multiple sub-models are built by the training set. The sub-models with better performance are selected through the validation set. Then, linear fusion models are established by minimizing the sum of squares of the error and information entropy method respectively. Finally, the performance of the fusion model is verified by the test set. The results showed that the prediction effect of the linear fusion models is better than that of the other three optima... [more]

The present work investigated the use of an echo state network for a gas lift oil well. The main contribution is the evaluation of the network performance under conditions normally faced in a real production system: noisy measurements, unmeasurable disturbances, sluggish behavior and model mismatch. The main pursued objective was to verify if this tool is suitable to compose a predictive control scheme for the analyzed operation. A simpler model was used to train the neural network and a more accurate process model was used to generate time series for validation. The system performance was investigated with distinct sample sizes for training, test and validation procedures and prediction horizons. The performance of the designed ESN was characterized in terms of slugging, setpoint changes and unmeasurable disturbances. It was observed that the size and the dynamic content of the training set tightly affected the network performance. However, for data sets with reasonable information co... [more]

This paper presents a transient power quality (PQ) disturbance classification approach based on a generalized S-transform and probabilistic neural network (PNN). Specifically, the width factor used in the generalized S-transform is feature oriented. Depending on the specific feature to be extracted from the S-transform amplitude matrix, a favorable value is determined for the width factor, with which the S-transform is performed and the corresponding feature is extracted. Four features obtained this way are used as the inputs of a PNN trained for performing the classification of 8 disturbance signals and one normal sinusoidal signal. The key work of this research includes studying the influence of the width factor on the S-transform results, investigating the impacts of the width factor on the distribution behavior of features selected for disturbance classification, determining the favorable value for the width factor by evaluating the classification accuracy of PNN. Simulation result... [more]

Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM) and the Varying Weight Method (VWM), for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the p... [more]