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Showing records 27950 to 27974 of 43292. [First] Page: 1 1115 1116 1117 1118 1119 1120 1121 1122 1123 Last
Strategies of Energy Suppliers and Consumer Awareness in Green Energy Optics
Aleksandra Sus, Rafał Trzaska, Maciej Wilczyński, Joanna Hołub-Iwan
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: enterprise strategy, green energy, willingness to pay
This research aims to identify (1) whether consumers have an impact on the energy sector, (2) to what extent consumers have an impact on the energy sector, and (3) whether there is so-called energy communism. We understand this phenomenon as the process of energy suppliers imposing energy sources on which the end consumer has zero or very little influence. The research, therefore, focused on a B2C analysis, in five selected countries: the USA, Canada, Australia, the UK, and Poland (N = 500). The research subjects are a homogeneous group in terms of the sources of green energy, and the volume of production of this type of energy and its increments. The investigation was conducted using the procedure appropriate for the triangulation of research methods. Three hypotheses were verified. The first one was rejected, which aimed to determine whether individual consumers are guided by green energy in their choices. The second hypothesis—that energy suppliers do not take into account customer... [more]
Guest Editorial: Special Issue of ESREL2020 PSAM15
Piero Baraldi, Roozbeh Razavi-Far, Enrico Zio
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
This Special Issue includes seven extended works that have been selected from papers presented at the ESREL 2020 PSAM 15 Conference, the 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL 2020) and the 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference (PSAM 15), jointly held virtually on 1−5 November 2020 to discuss the second wave of the pandemic breakout [...]
Possibility Study in CO2 Free Hydrogen Production Using Dodecane (C12H26) from Plasma Reaction
Dong Kyoo Park, Ji-Hyeon Kim, Hyo-Sik Kim, Jin-Ho Kim, Jae-Hong Ryu
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: C2-olefin, dodecane, plasma thermal cracking, solid carbon, turquoise H2
Turquoise hydrogen refers to hydrogen produced through a fossil-fuel-based process in which carbon is separated into solid carbon and no carbon dioxide is produced. In this study, dodecane was selected as a simulated oil for waste plastic pyrolysis recovery oil, and the turquoise hydrogen production characteristics through the thermal cracking reaction using an arc plasma torch were investigated. The plasma was stably discharged at 2 to 4 kW. Hydrogen in the produced gas was analyzed through an online IR gas analyzer, and hydrocarbons from C1 to C5 were analyzed through GC-FID. As a result of the experiment, the hydrogen yield tended to increase as the plasma power increased, and a maximum of 11.5% based on mass was obtained. On the other hand, carbon oxides such as CO and CO2 were not generated. Along with hydrogen, the valuable by-products of this process are solid carbon and gaseous hydrocarbons. The solid carbon yields also increased up to 66% as the plasma power increased. On the... [more]
The Effects of Rising Energy Prices on Inflation in Croatia
Damira Keček
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: energy prices, inflation, input–output price model, sensitivity analysis
The estimation of the price change effects caused by the impact of external shocks on the national economy is extremely important. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of the increasing global energy prices on the stability of the Croatian economy. The effects of the increase in energy prices are compared with other exogenous shocks, i.e., with the effects of the increasing gross wages and salaries and the increasing prices of imported goods and services. The impact of the changes in the prices of primary inputs on the trends in the economic sector prices was quantified using the input−output price model. The intensity of the transmission of the change in price of a primary input to other sectors through intersectoral dependence was analyzed. The results of the analysis indicate that the Croatian economy is extremely sensitive to energy price shocks. The estimated effects of increases in the prices of certain primary inputs, especially energy, on various economic sectors and... [more]
Carbon Dioxide Storage Potential of Cenozoic Saline Aquifers in the South Yellow Sea Basin
Yong Yuan, Jianqiang Wang, Jianwen Chen, Ke Cao, Jie Liang, Tianyu Lan, Dongyu Lu, Xudong Guo
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: Carbon Dioxide, geological storage, saline aquifer, sequestration, South Yellow Sea Basin, storage capacity
Carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in underwater reservoirs is a valuable method of reducing carbon emissions. Saline aquifers such as those in the South Yellow Sea Basin (SYSB), China, have great potential for geological CO2 storage. Thus, we use the recommended calculation method of USDOE and a formation volume model to determine the geological conditions for CO2 storage and estimate the CO2 storage capacity of the Cenozoic saline aquifers in the SYSB (depth: 800−3200 m). Overall, the SYSB exhibits weak fault activity and seismicity, medium and low geothermal fields, four types of source sandstone reservoir, and four sets of carbon reservoir−caprock assemblages developed from the Cenozoic strata, providing relatively good geological conditions for CO2 storage. The estimated capacity of the Cenozoic strata ranges from 39.59 Gt to 426.94 Gt (average: 155.25 Gt), indicating an extensive storage capacity that can meet the carbon sequestration needs of Shandong and Jiangsu Provinces for approxi... [more]
Study of Blockage Effects of Metro Train on Critical Velocity in Sloping Subway Tunnel Fires with Longitudinal Ventilation
Haitao Wang, Huanhuan Gao
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: critical velocity, train blockage, tunnel fire, tunnel slope
Critical velocity is very important for smoke control in longitudinally ventilated subway tunnel fires. Numerical investigations are conducted in this paper to study the impacts of metro train blockages on critical velocity in sloping subway tunnel fires by using fire dynamics simulator (FDS) tunnel models validated with the field-experiment data. Moreover, a global model of critical velocity is presented for the blocked zone of a metro train in subway tunnel fires including influencing factors of the blockage ratio and tunnel slope. The results show that the reduction ratio of critical velocity in the blocked zone is less than the metro-train blockage ratio. The correction factor between the critical velocity reduction ratio and metro-train blockage ratio is 0.545. The aerodynamic shadow zone downstream of a subway train blockage has important impacts on the critical velocity. The critical velocity in the unblocked zone of a metro train is higher than that in the blocked zone of a met... [more]
A Comparative Method for Assessment of Sustainable Energy Development across Regions: An Analysis of 30 Provinces in China
Jiayang Chen, Ying Kong, Shunyong Yin, Jianjun Xia
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Chinese provinces, energy indicators, sustainable energy development
Sustainable energy development (SED) has attracted the attention of the whole world. It has a wide range of concepts and rich connotations, which is difficult to be described with a single indicator. Therefore, scholars usually use multiple indicators to evaluate SED in multiple dimensions. Existing studies mostly took countries as the research objects, and there were fewer studies on sub-regions (provincial-level regions). In fact, due to factors such as resource endowment and industrial structure, there would be obvious differences in the energy system of different regions even within a country, such as China. This study took 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019 as the research object, and constructed a provincial-level SED evaluation system. Analytical methods of indicator contribution were also proposed to evaluate the improvement of specific indicators and their contribution to SED on both spatial and temporal scales. The findings could help identify where provinces are doing w... [more]
MILP-Based Profit Maximization of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Based on Solar and EV Arrival Forecasts
Andu Dukpa, Boguslaw Butrylo
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: electric vehicles, energy storage system, forecasting, mixed integer linear programming, profit maximization, Solar Photovoltaic
Electric vehicles (EVs) will be dominating the modes of transport in the future. Current limitations discouraging the use of EVs are mainly due to the characteristics of the EV battery and lack of easy access to charging stations. Charging schedules of EVs are usually uncoordinated, whereas coordinated charging offers several advantages, including grid stability. For a solar photovoltaic (PV)-based charging station (CS), optimal utilization of solar power results in an increased revenue and efficient utilization of related equipment. The solar PV and the arrival of EVs for charging are both highly stochastic. This work considers the solar PV forecast and the probability of EV arrival to optimize the operation of an off-grid, solar PV-based commercial CS with a battery energy storage system (BESS) to realize maximum profit. BESS supports the sale of power when the solar PV generation is low and subsequently captures energy from the solar PV when the generation is high. Due to contrastin... [more]
Review on Boiling Heat Transfer Enhancement Techniques
Chandan Swaroop Meena, Ashwani Kumar, Sanghati Roy, Alessandro Cannavale, Aritra Ghosh
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: boiling, droplets, heat transfer enhancement, nanofluids, pool boiling
Boiling is considered an important mode of heat transfer (HT) enhancement and has several industrial cooling applications. Boiling has the potential to minimize energy losses from HT devices, compared with other convection or conduction modes of HT enhancement. The purpose of this review article was to analyze, discuss, and compare existing research on boiling heat transfer enhancement techniques from the last few decades. We sought to understand the effect of nucleation sites on plain and curved surfaces and on HT enhancement, to suggest future guidelines for researchers to consider. This would help both research and industry communities to determine the best surface structure and surface manufacturing technique for a particular fluid. We discuss pool boiling HT enhancement, and present conclusions and recommendations for future research.
Environmental and Energy Conditions in Sustainable Regional Development
Brygida Klemens, Brygida Solga, Krystian Heffner, Piotr Gibas
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: air pollution, energy policy, environmental conditions, region development, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Climate change is taking place on a global scale and it is substantially affected by human activity, including increasing greenhouse gas emissions. One of the thematic objectives of EU’s new financial objective is a more environmentally friendly low-emission Europe that promotes clean and fair energy transformation, green investments, and a circular economy, among others. The Polish economy is mainly based on energy production from conventional sources (fossil fuels). Considering that the demand for electricity in Poland is predicted to increase by as much as 50% until 2040, it is necessary to take action aimed at increasing the share of renewable energy sources. The subject of analysis is the Opolskie Voivodeship (a NUTS 2 type region), the capital of which features the biggest Polish coal power plant. In 2014−2019, it was expanded by two units with 1800 MW in total capacity, thereby indicating that investments in energy obtained from conventional sources are still implemented and to... [more]
Analysis of the Impact of Propanol-Gasoline Blends on Lubricant Oil Degradation and Spark-Ignition Engine Characteristics
Muhammad Kashif Jamil, Maaz Akhtar, Muhammad Farooq, Muhammad Mujtaba Abbas, Saad, Muhammad Khuzaima, Khurshid Ahmad, Md Abul Kalam, Anas Abdelrahman
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: coefficient of variance, lubricant degradation, metal particles, propanol, spark ignition engine
Alcoholic fuels have recently come to light as a sustainable source for powering today’s vehicles. Various studies have investigated the effects of alcoholic fuels on engine efficiency and emission characteristics. However, scarce literature is available for their effects on lubricant. Therefore, propanol-gasoline fuel mixtures, with concentrations of 9% (P9) and 18% (P18) propanol, were made to compare their engine characteristics and lubricating oil condition with that of pure gasoline (0 percent propanol (P0)). To determine the rate of deterioration, the characteristics of the lubricating oil were evaluated after 100 h of engine operation, as suggested by the manufacturer. When compared with unused lube oil, P18 showed reductions in flash point temperature and kinematic viscosity of 14% and 36%, respectively, at 100 °C. For P18, which contains Fe (27 PPM), Al (11 PPM), and Cu (14 PPM), the highest wear element concentrations in the lubricating oil were found. The moisture in the deg... [more]
Medium-Voltage Distribution Network Parameter Optimization Using a Thyristor Voltage Regulator
Elena Sosnina, Aleksey Kralin, Anatoly Asabin, Evgeny Kryukov
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: distribution network, electromagnetic processes, Modelling, power flows, power quality, thyristor voltage regulator
The article is devoted to the study of steady-state conditions of a distribution network containing a thyristor voltage regulator. The thyristor voltage regulator (TVR) is a new controlled semiconductor device developed at Nizhny Novgorod State Technical University n.a. R.E. Alekseev (NNSTU). The TVR allows the optimization of the parameters of 6−20 kV distribution networks (currents and voltages) by voltage regulation. An analytical calculation of electromagnetic processes of a distribution network with the TVR has been carried out. The verification of the obtained results has been made using a computer simulation. The dependences of the current and power on additional voltage introduced by the TVR under different voltage regulation modes have been obtained. It has been shown that the use of the TVR enables optimal flow distribution to be ensured over the power transmission lines in proportion to their transfer capability when changing load power and its power factor.
Implementation and Design of FREEDM System Differential Protection Method Based on Internet of Things
Ahmed Y. Hatata, Mohamed A. Essa, Bishoy E. Sedhom
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: differential protection scheme, Fault Detection, FREEDM system, microgrid
This paper introduces an enhancement of the protection and operation of the Future Renewable Electric Energy Delivery and Management (FREEDM) system. It uses the solid-state transformers to connect the residential A.C. and D.C. microgrids to the distribution system and fault isolation devices for faulty line isolation. In this paper, a current differential protection scheme has been proposed to detect faults in the FREEDM-based microgrid network. This method is based on the current measurement at the two-line terminals using phasor measurement units to ensure data synchronization and minimize the measuring error. Also, a communication scheme that is based on the Internet of things technology and Wi-Fi is constructed for data monitoring and interlinking between the relays, transducers, and the fault isolation devices in the two-terminals lines. A hypothetical FREEDM system has been used for the verification and testing of the proposed method. Different fault types at different locations... [more]
Experimental Study on the Sweep Law of CO2 Miscible Flooding in Heterogeneous Reservoir in Jilin
Wen Li, Hongwei Yu, Zhengming Yang, Jinlong Li, Xinliang Chen, Longfei Ma
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: 2D visual model, CO2 miscible flooding, gas absorption capacity, sweep law, vertical heterogeneity
It is very important to effectively describe the sweep characteristics of CO2 miscible flooding based on physical models for actual reservoir development. In this study, based on the geological characteristics of the Jilin ultra-low permeability reservoir, which has significant vertical heterogeneity, a two-dimensional double-layer heterogeneous visualization model with a permeability contrast of 10 and thickness contrast of 2 was designed to perform experimental research on the sweep law of CO2 miscible flooding with an injection-production mode of “united injection and single production”. With the goal of determining the obvious differences in the gas absorption capacity and displacement power of the two layers, the CO2 dynamic miscible flooding characteristics were comprehensively analyzed, and the sweep law of CO2 miscible flooding, including the oil and gas flow trend, migration direction of the oil−gas interface, and distribution characteristics of the miscible zone, was further... [more]
Tunnel Oxide Deposition Techniques and Their Parametric Influence on Nano-Scaled SiOx Layer of TOPCon Solar Cell: A Review
Hasnain Yousuf, Muhammad Quddamah Khokhar, Muhammad Aleem Zahid, Matheus Rabelo, Sungheon Kim, Duy Phong Pham, Youngkuk Kim, Junsin Yi
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: chemical and thermal oxidation, nano-scale SiOx, PECVD, TOPCon cell efficiency improvement, TOPCon solar cell fabrication methods, tunnel oxide deposition techniques
In addition to the different technologies of silicon solar cells in crystalline form, TOPCon solar cells have an exceptionally great efficiency of 26%, accomplished by the manufacturing scale technique for industrialization, and have inordinate cell values of 732.3 mV open-circuit voltage (Voc) and a fill factor (FF) of 84.3%. The thickness of tunnel oxide, which is less than 2 nm in the TOPCon cell, primarily affects the electrical properties and efficiency of the cell. In this review, various techniques of deposition were utilized for the layer of SiOx tunnel oxide, such as thermal oxidation, ozone oxidation, chemical oxidation, and plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD). To monitor the morphology of the surface, configuration of annealing, and rate of acceleration, a tunnel junction structure of oxide through a passivation quality of better Voc on a wafer of n-type cell might be accomplished. The passivation condition of experiments exposed to rapid thermal processing (RT... [more]
Editorial for the Special Issue “Verifying the Targets—Selected Papers from the 55th International Universities Power Engineering Conference (UPEC 2020)”
Gianfranco Chicco, Andrea Mazza, Salvatore Musumeci, Enrico Pons, Angela Russo
February 27, 2023 (v1)
The 55th International Universities Power Engineering Conference (UPEC 2020) has been held on 1−4 September 2020 in the Virtual Conference mode because of the limitations due to the pandemics, hosted by Politecnico di Torino, Torino, Italy [...]
Effect of Temperature Conditions in Arctic Offshore Oil Fields on the Rheological Properties of Various Based Drilling Muds
Ekaterina Leusheva, Valentin Morenov
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: barite-free muds, hydrocarbon-based muds, offshore drilling, rheological parameters, synthetic-based muds, water-based muds
During well drilling in offshore conditions beyond the North of the Arctic Circle, there are often problems associated with deviations in the rheological parameters of the drilling mud as the temperature changes. Mud temperature in the upper part of the well in most cases is in the range up to 20 °C, whereas in the productive formation it is up to 80 °C and more. For such conditions, it is necessary to estimate the influence of temperature on the rheological parameters of drilling fluids, which is done in this paper. Compositions of water-based and hydrocarbon-based muds that may be used in the conditions of the offshore hydrocarbon fields were considered. The paper presents the authors’ formula for a drilling mud that possesses more stable rheological parameters in the temperature conditions of the offshore oil field and is more environmentally friendly. The physical properties of the newly designed drilling mud were measured with laboratory equipment. Rheological investigations were... [more]
Energy in Smart Urban Transportation with Systemic Use of Electric Vehicles
Grzegorz Karoń
February 27, 2023 (v1)
In the progressive development of Electric Vehicles (EVs) and the transformation of transport towards electromobility and decarbonization of cities, many different problems are being faced related to energy management in transport in smart cities [...]
Geochemical Characteristics and Environmental Implications of Trace Elements of the Paleocene in the West Lishui Sag, East China Sea Basin
Shuai Yang, Qiang Fu, Jinshui Liu, Wenrui Ma, Bing Yang, Zhiwei Zhu, Wen Teng
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: elemental geochemistry, Lishui Sag, paleocene, paleoenvironment, XRF
Analysis of the sedimentary environment during the clastic formation process is of great significance for reservoir evaluation and desert prediction. This paper focused on the Paleocene in the West Lishui Sag, East China Sea Basin. XRF fluorescence diffraction and carbon and oxygen isotope tests were carried out on core samples from four wells. Based on the geochemical characteristics of the samples and the changes in the elemental ratios, combined with the lithologic characteristics and sedimentary structure of the samples, the paleoclimate, paleosalinity, paleobathymetric, paleoredox, paleotemperature, and other paleoenvironmental characteristics were analyzed. The results show that the characteristics of major and trace elements were similar in the lower Mingyuefeng Formation (E1m2), Upper Lingfeng Formation (E1l1), Lower Lingfing Formation (E1l2), and Yueguifeng Formation (E1y). The Paleocene in the West Lishui Sag was mainly in the reducing environment of brackish-salt water with... [more]
Intelligent Action Planning for Well Construction Operations Demonstrated for Hole Cleaning Optimization and Automation
Gurtej Singh Saini, Parham Pournazari, Pradeepkumar Ashok, Eric van Oort
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: action planning, digital twinning, heuristic design, hole cleaning, Monte Carlo tree search, reinforcement learning, well construction
Reactive and biased human decision-making during well construction operations can result in problems ranging from minor inefficiencies to events that can have far-reaching negative consequences for safety, environmental compliance and cost. A system that can automatically generate an optimal action sequence from any given state to meet an operation’s objectives is therefore highly desirable. Moreover, an intelligent agent capable of self-learning can offset the computation and memory costs associated with evaluating the action space, which is often vast. This paper details the development of such action planning systems by utilizing reinforcement learning techniques. The concept of self-play used by game AI engines (such as AlphaGo and AlphaZero in Google’s DeepMind group) is adapted here for well construction tasks, wherein a drilling agent learns and improves from scenario simulations performed using digital twins. The first step in building such a system necessitates formulating the... [more]
Numerical Demonstration of Unsupervised-Learning-Based Noise Reduction in Two-Dimensional Rayleigh Imaging
Minnan Cai, Hua Jin, Beichen Lin, Wenjiang Xu, Yancheng You
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: noise reduction, Rayleigh imaging, unsupervised learning
The conventional denoising method in Rayleigh imaging in a general sense requires an additional hardware investment and the use of the underlying physics. This work demonstrates an alternative image denoising reconstruction model based on unsupervised learning that aims to remove Mie scattering and shot noise interference from two-dimensional (2D) Rayleigh images. The model has two generators and two discriminators whose parameters can be trained with either feature-paired or feature-unpaired data independently. The proposed network was extensively evaluated with a qualitative examination and quantitative metrics, such as PSNR, ER, and SSIM. The results demonstrate that the feature-paired training network exhibits a better performance compared with several other networks reported in the literature. Moreover, when the flame features are not paired, the feature-unpaired training network still yields a good agreement with ground truth data. Specific indicators of the quantitative evaluati... [more]
Volume-of-Fluid Based Finite-Volume Computational Simulations of Three-Phase Nanoparticle-Liquid-Gas Boiling Problems in Vertical Rectangular Channels
Anele Mavi, Tiri Chinyoka
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: boiling, finite volume methods, multi-phase flow, nanofluid, OpenFOAM, three-phase flow, variable-thermal-conductivity, volume-of-fluid
This study develops robust numerical algorithms for the simulation of three-phase (solid-liquid-gas) boiling and bubble formation problems in rectangular channels. The numerical algorithms are based on the Finite Volume Methods (FVM) and implement both the volume-of-fluid (VOF) methods for liquid-gas interface tracking as well as the volume-fraction methods to account for the concentration of embedded solid nano-particles in the liquid phase. Water is used as the base-liquid and the solid phase is modelled via metallic nano-particles (both aluminium oxide and titanium oxide nano-particles are considered) that are homogeneously mixed within the liquid phase. The gas phase is considered as a vapour arising from the bolling processes of the liquid-phase. The finite volume methodology is implemented on the OpenFOAM software platform, specifically by careful modification and manipulation of existing OpenFOAM solvers. The governing fluid dynamical equations, for the three-phase boiling probl... [more]
A Novel Virtual Sensor Modeling Method Based on Deep Learning and Its Application in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning System
Delin Wang, Xiangshun Li
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: HVAC, long short-term memory (LSTM), maximal information coefficient (MIC), spatio-temporal, virtual sensor
Realizing the dynamic redundancy of sensors is of great significance to ensure the energy saving and normal operation of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system. Building a virtual sensor model is an effective method of redundancy and fault tolerance for hardware sensors. In this paper, a virtual sensor modeling method combining the maximum information coefficient (MIC) and the spatial−temporal attention long short-term memory (STA-LSTM) is proposed, which is named MIC-STALSTM, to achieve the dynamic and nonlinear modeling of the supply and return water temperature at both ends of the chiller. First, MIC can extract the influencing factors highly related to the target variables. Then, the extracted impact factors via MIC are used as the input variables of the STA-LSTM algorithm in order to construct an accurate virtual sensor model. The STA-LSTM algorithm not only makes full use of the LSTM algorithm’s advantages in handling historical data series information, but... [more]
DC-DC High-Step-Up Quasi-Resonant Converter to Drive Acoustic Transmitters
Emad Roshandel, Amin Mahmoudi, Solmaz Kahourzade, Hamid Davazdah-Emami
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: acoustic transmitters, DC-DC power supply, high power density converter, high power step-up converter, PIEZO-electric drive, PIEZO-electric transmitters, resonant converter
This paper proposes a quasi-resonant step-up DC-DC converter to provide the DC-link voltage for piezoelectric transmitters (PZETs). The resonance not only provides a soft-switching condition for the converter switches, but also helps to decrease the converter element sizes for marine applications. Operation modes of the proposed converter are discussed. The current and voltage of the converter components are derived analytically, and hence the converter gain is obtained. The performance of the proposed high-step-up, high-power density converter is examined through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulation results demonstrate the soft-switching operation and short transient time required for the converter to reach the reference output voltage. The converter output voltage remains unchanged when an inverter with a passive filter is placed at its output while supplying the PZET. The proposed DC-DC converter is prototyped to validate the converter gain and soft-switching operation e... [more]
Does Uncertainty Forecast Crude Oil Volatility before and during the COVID-19 Outbreak? Fresh Evidence Using Machine Learning Models
Kais Tissaoui, Taha Zaghdoudi, Abdelaziz Hakimi, Ousama Ben-Salha, Lamia Ben Amor
February 27, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: complex relationship, crude oil volatility index, eXtreme Gradient Boosting, Shapley Additive Explanation Method, Support Vector Machine, uncertainty indexes
This paper uses two competing machine learning models, namely the Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) against the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMAX (p,d,q) model to identify their predictive performance of the crude oil volatility index before and during COVID-19. In terms of accuracy, forecasting results reveal that the SVR model dominates the XGBoost and ARIMAX models in predicting the crude oil volatility index before COVID-19. However, the XGBoost model provides more accurate predictions of the crude oil volatility index than the SVR and ARIMAX models during the pandemic. The inverse cumulative distribution of residuals suggests that both ML models produce good results in terms of convergence. Findings also indicate that there is a fast convergence to the optimal solution when using the XGBoost model. When analyzing the feature importance, the Shapley Additive Explanation Method reveals that the SVR performs significantly better... [more]
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