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Records with Type: Published Article
22840. LAPSE:2023.16294
Evaluation of the Cost-Optimal Method Applied to Existing Schools Considering PV System Optimization
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: cost-optimal method, energy saving, renewables, school retrofitting, sustainable schools.
In Italy in 2020, only 15.5% of school building heritage was retrofitted from an energy and environmental point of view. In this paper, the cost-optimal method was applied to two different school buildings belonging to the same Italian cold climate zone but characterized by different structural and technological solutions. The research aims at defining the cost-effective redevelopment solution among several ones proposed to apply to this building type. At the same time, this paper provides a critical analysis of the methodology applied, highlighting deficiencies related to a not proper evaluation of environmentally friendly retrofitting measures. In a cost-effective context, the main results show that the intervention on the heating system is more convenient than the retrofitting of the envelope. The energy saving is equal to about 35% for both considered schools. Among the different proposed requalification configurations, the adoption of PV (photovoltaic) electric generation is inclu... [more]
22841. LAPSE:2023.16293
Non-Isolated Interleaved Hybrid Boost Converter for Renewable Energy Applications
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: DC-DC converter, high gain, interleaved, Renewable and Sustainable Energy, voltage lift capacitor.
DC-DC boost converters are necessary to extract power from solar panels. The output voltage from these panels is far lower than the utility voltage levels. One of the main functions of the boost converter is to provide a considerable step-up gain to interface the panel to the utility lines. There are several techniques used to boost the low panel voltage. Some of the issues faced by these topologies are a high duty ratio operation, complex design with multiple active switches and discontinuous input current that affects the power drawn from the panel. This paper presents a boost converter topology that combines the advantages of an interleaved structure, a voltage lift capacitor and a passive voltage multiplier network. A mathematical analysis of the proposed converter during its various modes of operation is presented. A 100 W prototype of the proposed converter is designed and tested. The prototype is controlled by a PIC16F18455 microcontroller. The converter is capable of achieving... [more]
22842. LAPSE:2023.16292
Strategies of European Energy Producers: Directions of Evolution
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: energetics, energy producers, management, network organization, planning approach, positional school, regulated sector, resource-based approach to strategy, schools of management, strategy, the innovative and entrepreneurial approach.
The article presents an innovative method of analyzing energy companies’ strategies, which aims to identify the strategic orientation of the entities subject to the research and, thus, to initially define the directions of strategic changes in the analyzed sector. The aim of the research, the results of which were used in this publication, was to identify the features of energy sector companies’ strategies in the European Union in the period of sector transformation caused by the new climate policy. The analysis area is the energy sector, i.e., the sector whose fundamental strategic goal is energy production. The research used a critical analysis of the subject literature and desk research method with the use of the researchers’ own analytical equipment, developed for the needs of this analysis. It was assumed in the conducted research that the primary source of information in the empirical study, the information subject to subsequent analysis, was the analysis of official documents (s... [more]
22843. LAPSE:2023.16291
Enhancement of Sensorless Control for Non-Sinusoidal Multiphase Drives-Part I: Operation in Medium and High-Speed Range
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: back EMF observer, integrated motor drive, multiphase machine, sensorless control, seven-phase permanent magnet synchronous machine, Sliding Mode Observer.
This two-part study proposes a new sensorless control strategy for non-sinusoidal multiphase permanent magnet synchronous machines (PMSMs), especially integrated motor drives (IMDs). Based on the Sliding Mode Observer (SMO), the proposed sensorless control strategy uses the signals (currents and voltages) of all fictitious machines of the multiphase PMSMs. It can estimate the high-accuracy rotor positions that are required in vector control. This proposed strategy is compared to the conventional sensorless control strategy that applies only current and voltage signals of the main fictitious machine, including the fundamental component of back electromotive force (back EMF) of non-sinusoidal multiphase PMSMs. Therefore, in order to choose an appropriate sensorless control strategy for the non-sinusoidal multiphase PMSMs, these two sensorless control strategies will be highlighted in terms of precision with respect to rotor position and speed estimation. Simulations and the experimental... [more]
22844. LAPSE:2023.16290
Mathematical Model of Steam Reforming in the Anode Channel of a Molten Carbonate Fuel Cell
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: MCFC, molten carbonate fuel cell, Steam Reforming.
The paper presents a mathematical model of a molten carbonate fuel cell with a catalyst in the anode channel. The modeled system is fueled by methane. The system includes a model of the steam reforming process occurring in the anode channel of the MCFC fuel cell and the model of the cell itself. A reduced order model was used to describe the operation of the molten carbonate fuel cell, whereas a kinetic model describes the methane steam reforming. The calculations of the reforming were done in Aspen HYSYS software. Four values of the steam-to-carbon ratio (2.0, 2.5, 3.0, and 3.5) were used to analyze the performance of the reforming process. In the first phase, the reaction kinetics model was based on data from the literature.
22845. LAPSE:2023.16289
Coupling a Chlor-Alkali Membrane Electrolyzer Cell to a Wind Energy Source: Dynamic Modeling and Simulations
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: chlor-alkali membrane electrolysis, Dynamic Modelling, Simulation, validation, wind energy source.
Renewable energy sources are becoming a greater component of the electrical mix, while being significantly more volatile than conventional energy sources. As a result, net stability and availability pose significant challenges. Energy-intensive processes, such as chlor-alkali electrolysis, can potentially adjust their consumption to the available power, which is known as demand side management or demand response. In this study, a dynamic model of a chlor-alkali membrane cell is developed to assess the flexible potential of the membrane cell. Several improvements to previously published models were made, making the model more representative of state-of-the-art CA plants. By coupling the model with a wind power profile, the current and potential level over the course of a day was simulated. The simulation results show that the required ramp rates are within the regular operating possibilities of the plant for most of the time and that the electrolyte concentrations in the cell can be kep... [more]
22846. LAPSE:2023.16288
Degradation Trend Prediction of Pumped Storage Unit Based on MIC-LGBM and VMD-GRU Combined Model
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: degradation trend prediction, gated recurrent unit, light gradient boosting machine, maximal information coefficient, pumped storage unit, variational mode decomposition.
The harsh operating environment aggravates the degradation of pumped storage units (PSUs). Degradation trend prediction (DTP) provides important support for the condition-based maintenance of PSUs. However, the complexity of the performance degradation index (PDI) sequence poses a severe challenge of the reliability of DTP. Additionally, the accuracy of healthy model is often ignored, resulting in an unconvincing PDI. To solve these problems, a combined DTP model that integrates the maximal information coefficient (MIC), light gradient boosting machine (LGBM), variational mode decomposition (VMD) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) is proposed. Firstly, MIC-LGBM is utilized to generate a high-precision healthy model. MIC is applied to select the working parameters with the most relevance, then the LGBM is utilized to construct the healthy model. Afterwards, a performance degradation index (PDI) is generated based on the LGBM healthy model and monitoring data. Finally, the VMD-GRU prediction... [more]
22847. LAPSE:2023.16287
Synchronization of Electrical Drives via EtherCAT Fieldbus Communication Modules
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: CiA402, communication network, distributed clocks, EtherCAT, fieldbus, motion control, multi-axis, synchronization.
Synchronization between devices (in particular drive systems) is paramount for multi-axis motion control systems used in Computerized Numerical Control (CNC) machines, robots, and specialized technology machines used in many areas of the manufacturing industry. EtherCAT is an Ethernet-based network that is one of the most popular industrial networks for multi-axis motion control systems. EtherCAT is standardized in the IEC 61158 and IEC 61784 standards. In the article, an EtherCAT communication network for electrical drives is presented. The article focuses on the synchronization in the EtherCAT network consisting of one master device and slave servo drive devices. Special attention is given to synchronization mechanisms in EtherCAT, such as distributed clocks in slave servo drives devices. For this purpose, a laboratory stand was built consisting of two prototype servo drive devices with BLDC motors equipped with EtherCAT communication modules. A description of the working developed E... [more]
22848. LAPSE:2023.16286
Development and Implementation of the Smart Village Concept as a Challenge for the Modern Power Industry on the Example of Poland
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: energy policy, modern energy solutions, smart village.
Nowadays, while cities are often subject to research in terms of their development, especially smart development, studies on rural areas are rare. However, the development of the latter is very important. It is important that rural areas develop economically and socially. Smart villages are a challenge for the modern energy sector. The authors of the article try to answer the question: What are the challenges for the modern energy sector in the context of rural development? The aim of this article is to identify challenges for the modern power industry in the concept of smart countryside development. The article begins with the presentation of the essence of smart villages and the essence of energy policy. The research facilitated the identification of basic challenges that prevent or slow down the development of the smart villages in terms of modern energy solutions, as perceived by experts and residents, and farmers and entrepreneurs operating in rural areas. The article identifies a... [more]
22849. LAPSE:2023.16285
Geological and Engineering Integrated Shale Gas Sweet Spots Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method: A Case Study of Z Shale Gas Field HB Block
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: comprehensive sweet spot, engineering sweet spot, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, geological sweet spot, shale gas.
As an emerging unconventional energy resource, shale gas has great resource potential and developmental prospects. The effective evaluation of geological sweet spots (GSS), engineering sweet spots (ESS) and comprehensive sweet spots (CSS) is one of the main factors for a high-yield scale and economic production of shale gas. Sweet spot evaluation involves a comprehensive analysis based on multiple parameters. Conventional evaluation methods consider relatively simple or single factors. Although the main influencing factors are understood, the influence of different factors is as of yet unknown, and a comprehensive consideration may strongly affect the evaluation results. In this paper, the fuzzy mathematics method is introduced for shale gas sweet spot evaluation. With the help of fuzzy mathematics tools, such as membership function, the objective of comprehensive sweet spots evaluation based on multiple parameters is realized. Additionally, the reliability of the evaluation of sweet s... [more]
22850. LAPSE:2023.16284
An Automatic Procedure for Overheated Idler Detection in Belt Conveyors Using Fusion of Infrared and RGB Images Acquired during UGV Robot Inspection
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: belt conveyor, hot spot detection, image analysis, image fusion, inspection robotics.
Complex mechanical systems used in the mining industry for efficient raw materials extraction require proper maintenance. Especially in a deep underground mine, the regular inspection of machines operating in extremely harsh conditions is challenging, thus, monitoring systems and autonomous inspection robots are becoming more and more popular. In the paper, it is proposed to use a mobile unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) platform equipped with various data acquisition systems for supporting inspection procedures. Although maintenance staff with appropriate experience are able to identify problems almost immediately, due to mentioned harsh conditions such as temperature, humidity, poisonous gas risk, etc., their presence in dangerous areas is limited. Thus, it is recommended to use inspection robots collecting data and appropriate algorithms for their processing. In this paper, the authors propose red-green-blue (RGB) and infrared (IR) image fusion to detect overheated idlers. An original p... [more]
22851. LAPSE:2023.16283
A Study of Control Methodologies for the Trade-Off between Battery Aging and Energy Consumption on Electric Vehicles with Hybrid Energy Storage Systems
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: battery aging, electric vehicle, energy management, hybrid vehicle, lithium ion, ultracapacitor.
Hybrid and electric vehicle batteries deteriorate from use due to irreversible internal chemical and mechanical changes, resulting in decreased capacity and efficiency of the energy storage system. This article investigates the modeling and control of a lithium-ion battery and ultracapacitor hybrid energy storage system for an electric vehicle for improved battery lifespan and energy consumption. By developing a control-oriented aging model for the energy storage components and integrating the aging models into an energy management system, the trade-off between battery degradation and energy consumption can be minimized. This article produces an optimal aging-aware energy management strategy that controls both battery and ultracapacitor aging and compares these results to strategies that control only battery aging, strategies that control battery aging factors but not aging itself, and non-optimal benchmark strategies. A case study on an electric bus with variously-sized hybrid energy... [more]
22852. LAPSE:2023.16282
Influence of Optic Cable Construction Parts on Recovery Process after Gamma Irradiation
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: attenuation, fibre optic, irradiation, nuclear power plants, recovery process.
Fibre optic cables are widely used as communication cables in Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems. In the case of nuclear power plants (NPPs), using optic cables in mild environments outside of containment areas are very common. However, at present, there is a need for fibre optic cables to be used in containment areas, i.e., with radiation. An optical fibre consists of a highly transparent core that possesses a higher refractive index than the surrounding transparent cladding, which possesses a lower refractive index. Most optical fibres are manufactured from glass (silica with required dopants) which is created at high temperatures from the reaction between gasses. The glass used in optical fibres is sensitive; it becomes dark during exposure to radiation, which compromises the optic functions. That is why there has been a slow infiltration of optic cable in NPP containment areas. Radiation resistant optic fibres have been developed. Although these fibres are called “radiation... [more]
22853. LAPSE:2023.16281
Measurement of Infrasound Components Contained in the Noise Emitted during a Working Wind Turbine
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: data analysis, frequency component estimation, infrasound measuring system, low-level frequency, wind turbine.
The research reported in this paper involves the development and refinement of methods applicable to the measurement and analysis of infrasound signals generated by the operation of wind turbines. In particular, the presentation focuses on the use of a new system that is applied for simultaneous recording of acoustic signals in the low-frequency range emitted by wind farms in three independent and identical measurement setups. A comparative analysis of the proposed new system was made with the Brüel & Kjaer measurement, a commonly used methodology, which meets the requirements of the IEC 61400-11 standard. The paper focuses on the results of frequency and time-frequency analysis of infrasound signals recorded throughout the operation of a wind turbine with a rated capacity of 2 MW. The use of a correlated system with three simultaneous measurement systems can be a new and alternative measurement method that will eliminate the drawbacks of previous approaches.
22854. LAPSE:2023.16280
Numerical and Experimental Study of a Novel Additively Manufactured Metal-Polymer Composite Heat-Exchanger for Liquid Cooling Electronics
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Modelling and Simulations
Keywords: 3D CFD modeling, additive manufacturing, air-to-water HX, cross-media, ellipsoidal tube banks, experiment.
In order to meet increasing power-dissipation requirements of the electronics industry, compact, low-cost, and lightweight heat exchangers (HXs) are desired. With proper design, materials, and manufacture, polymer composite heat exchangers could meet these requirements. This paper presents a novel crossflow air-to-water, low-cost, and lightweight metal-polymer composite HX. This HX, which is entirely additively manufactured, utilizes a novel cross-media approach that provides direct heat exchange between air and liquid sides by using connecting fins. A robust numerical model was developed, which includes the dimensional effects of additive manufacturing. The study consists of a simplified 3D CFD model based on ellipsoidal-shaped staggered tube banks for the laminar range. It then uses an analytical approach to compute entire HX performance. The model is validated experimentally within 8% for thermal performance, 12% for air-side impedance, and 18% for water-side impedance. Finally, HX... [more]
22855. LAPSE:2023.16279
The Development and Issues of Energy-ICT: A Review of Literature with Economic and Managerial Viewpoints
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Policy
Keywords: cost and benefit, cybersecurity, energy-ICT, fair competition, promotion policy.
This paper reviews the economic and managerial literature on the relationship between energy-ICT and the development of the green energy economy. It is summarized that there are four lines of existing literature on energy-ICT: cost and benefit analysis, fair competition issues, cybersecurity issues, and promotion policy issues. Even though ICT is energy-consuming, most of the existing empirical studies support the idea that energy-ICT has net positive effects on energy savings, energy efficiency improvement, emission reduction, and economic growth at both enterprise and economy-wide levels. Energy-ICT equips the platform operator with higher bargaining power, such that a governance mechanism to assure the fair access right of each entitled participant is required. A smarter energy-ICT network also becomes riskier, and hence the cybersecurity protection is more important than before. Future research and development opportunities remain on these issues of the fair competition, cybersecur... [more]
22856. LAPSE:2023.16278
Communicating the Values and Benefits of Home Solar Prosumerism
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: economic assessment, marketing, multimodal discourse analysis, photovoltaics, prosumerism, self-consumption, time series.
Clearly and accurately communicating the economic, environmental, and social benefits of solar PV prosumerism poses significant challenges. Previous research shows that government policies and public engagement campaigns can positively impact solar prosumerism; however, little is known about the quality and accuracy of information exchanged between rooftop solar installers and potential prosumers. This study addresses part of this gap with a mixed methods approach. First, a multimodal discourse analysis of installation proposals from seven home solar installers in Madrid shows accurate and reasonable financial benefits alongside incongruent social and environmental benefits. Second, the calculated efficiency of the seven proposed solar installations is compared with the efficiency of four different PVSC solar arrays using actual load and generation profiles. The results show that (i) the high variability of actual household demand on the minute-by- minute level significantly decreases... [more]
22857. LAPSE:2023.16277
The Role of Large Cities in the Development of Low-Carbon Economy—The Example of Poland
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: cities, EU funds, local investment, low-carbon economy, metropolises, Poland, renewable energy sources, sustainable development.
The main objective of the article is to evaluate the investment activity of large cities in Poland in the area of developing a low-carbon economy in 2014−2020, co-financed by European Union funds. This article poses several research questions, namely: Do large cities with environmental problems actively obtain EU funding to develop a low-carbon economy? What are the main socio-economic and environmental determinants of the level of the EU funding absorption among large cities in the research area? The empirical research was conducted on the basis of the data from the Ministry of Investment and Economic Development in Poland, which is responsible for the implementation of cohesion policy funds and from the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland. Under the 2014−2020 perspective, 223 such projects have been implemented for a total of PLN 21 billion (EUR 4.74 billion). The projects focused on: transportation, electricity, gaseous fuels, steam, hot water and air for air conditioning systems,... [more]
22858. LAPSE:2023.16276
Thermal Analysis and Optimization of the Phase Diagram of the Cu-Ag Sulfide System
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Materials
Keywords: copper, inorganic materials, phase diagram, silver, sulfide, thermal analysis, thermal energy, thermochemistry.
Thermal stabilities of selected ternary phases of industrial interest in the Ag-Cu-S system have been studied by the calorimetric and electromotive force techniques. The ternary compounds Ag1.2Cu0.8S (mineral mackinstryite) and AgCuS (mineral stromeyerite) were equilibrated through high-temperature reaction of the pure Cu2S and Ag2S in an inert atmosphere. The synthesized single solid sample constituting the two ternary phases was ground into fine powders and lightly pressed into pellets before calorimetric measurements. An electrochemical cell incorporating the two equilibrated phase and additional CuS as a cathode material was employed. The measurement results obtained with both techniques were analyzed and thermodynamic properties in the system have been determined and compared with the available literature values. Enthalpy of fusion data of the Ag-richer solid solution (Ag,Cu)2S have also been determined directly from the experimental data for the first time. The thermodynamic quan... [more]
22859. LAPSE:2023.16275
Variable Speed Diesel Generators: Performance and Characteristic Comparison
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: diesel engine, Energy Efficiency, environmental impact, fuel optimization, low load regime, remote area, variable speed generator.
Diesel generators (DGs) are set to work as a backup during power outages or support the load in remote areas not connected to the national grid. These DGs are working at a constant speed to produce reliable AC power, while electrical energy demand fluctuates according to instantaneous needs. High electric loads occur only for a few hours a day in remote areas, resulting in oversizing DGs. During a low load operation, DGs face poor fuel efficiency and condensation of fuel residues on the walls of engine cylinders that increase friction and premature wear. One solution to increase combustion efficiency at low electric loads is to reduce diesel engine (DE) speed to its ideal regime according to the mechanical torque required by the electrical generator. Therefore, Variable Speed Diesel Generators (VSDGs) allow the operation of the diesel engine at an optimal speed according to the electrical load but require additional electrical equipment and control to maintain the power output to elect... [more]
22860. LAPSE:2023.16274
Using Machine Learning to Identify the Potential Marginal Land Suitable for Giant Silvergrass (Miscanthus × giganteus)
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Environment
Keywords: boosting regression tree, environmental suitability, giant silvergrass, marginal land.
Developing biomass energy, seen as the most important renewable energy, is becoming a prospective solution in attempting to deal with the world’s sustainability-related challenges, such as climate change, energy crisis, and carbon emission reduction. As one of the most promising second-generation energy crops, giant silvergrass (Miscanthus × giganteus) is highly valued for its high potential for biomass production and low maintenance requirements. Mapping the potential global distribution of marginal land suitable for giant silvergrass is an essential prerequisite for the development of giant silvergrass-based biomass energy. In this study, a boosting regression tree was used to identify the marginal land resources for giant silvergrass cultivation using influencing factors, which include climate conditions, soil conditions, topography conditions, and land use. The results indicate that there are 3068.25 million hectares of land resources worldwide suitable for giant silvergrass cultiv... [more]
22861. LAPSE:2023.16273
Determinants of Demand Response Program Participation: Contingent Valuation Evidence from a Smart Thermostat Program
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Process Control
Keywords: contingent valuation, demand response, direct load control, incentive-based, willingness to accept.
As renewable electricity generation continues to increase in the United States (US), considerable effort goes into matching heterogeneous supply to demand at a subhour time-step. As a result, some electric providers offer incentive-based programs for residential consumers that aim to reduce electric demand during high-demand periods. There is little research into determinants of consumer response to incentive-based programs beyond typical sociodemographic characteristics. To add to this body of literature, this paper presents the findings of a dichotomous choice contingent valuation (CV) survey targeting US ratepayers’ participation in a direct-load-control scheme utilizing a smart thermostat designed to reallocate consumer electricity demand on summer days when grid stress is high. Our results show approximately 50% of respondents are willing to participate at a median willingness-to-accept (WTA) figure of USD 9.50 (95% CI: 3.74, 15.25) per month that lasts for one summer (June throug... [more]
22862. LAPSE:2023.16272
State Feedback Speed Control with Periodic Disturbances Attenuation for PMSM Drive
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Other
Keywords: nature-inspired tuning procedure, permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM), state feedback controller (SFC).
This paper proposes an auto-tuned constrained state-feedback controller (SFC) to attenuate periodic disturbances present in permanent magnet synchronous (PMSM) motor drives. An online auto-tuning process of SFC has been made using a powerful nature-inspired optimization algorithm—artificial bee colony (ABC)—to achieve high-performance operation of the drive. A novel performance index is proposed to minimize the impact of pulsating torque and obtain smooth-velocity of the drive. The proposed approach is a practical application of classic control theory with novel engineering-tools for improving the operational quality of a PMSM drive system. The obtained results are compared with a classical cascade control structure (CCS) based on proportional-integral (PI) regulators and disturbance observer-based control (DOBC). A detailed time- and frequency-domain analysis has been conducted in respect to periodic disturbances present in a PMSM drive system. Moreover, the robustness of SFC against... [more]
22863. LAPSE:2023.16271
Utilization of Electric Vehicles for Vehicle-to-Grid Services: Progress and Perspectives
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Energy Systems
Keywords: aggregation, ancillary service, electric vehicle, vehicle-to-grid.
With every passing second, we witness the effect of the global environmental impact of fossil fuels and carbon emissions, to which nations across the globe respond by coming up with ambitious goals to become carbon-free and energy-efficient. At the same time, electric vehicles (EVs) are developed as a possible solution to reach this ambitious goal of making a cleaner environment and facilitating smarter transportation modes. This excellent idea of shifting towards an entirely EV-based mobility industry and economy results in a range of issues that need to be addressed. The issues range from ramping up the electricity generation for the projected increase in consumption to developing an infrastructure that is large enough to support the higher demand for electricity that arises due to the market penetration of EVs. Vehicle to grid (V2G) is a concept that is largely in a testing phase in the current scenario. However, it appears to offer a solution to the issues created by a mobility sec... [more]
22864. LAPSE:2023.16270
Statistical and Artificial Neural Networks Models for Electricity Consumption Forecasting in the Brazilian Industrial Sector
March 3, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Planning & Scheduling
Keywords: artificial neural networks, energy planning, forecasting, industrial electricity consumption.
Forecasting the industry’s electricity consumption is essential for energy planning in a given country or region. Thus, this study aims to apply time-series forecasting models (statistical approach and artificial neural network approach) to the industrial electricity consumption in the Brazilian system. For the statistical approach, the Holt−Winters, SARIMA, Dynamic Linear Model, and TBATS (Trigonometric Box−Cox transform, ARMA errors, Trend, and Seasonal components) models were considered. For the approach of artificial neural networks, the NNAR (neural network autoregression) and MLP (multilayer perceptron) models were considered. The results indicate that the MLP model was the one that obtained the best forecasting performance for the electricity consumption of the Brazilian industry under analysis.
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