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Records with Subject: Numerical Methods and Statistics
Showing records 422 to 446 of 2221. [First] Page: 1 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Last
Optimized Hierarchical Tree Deep Convolutional Neural Network of a Tree-Based Workload Prediction Scheme for Enhancing Power Efficiency in Cloud Computing
Thirumalai Selvan Chenni Chetty, Vadim Bolshev, Siva Shankar Subramanian, Tulika Chakrabarti, Prasun Chakrabarti, Vladimir Panchenko, Igor Yudaev, Yuliia Daus
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: cloud computing, cloud data center, convolutional neural network, kernel correlation, sheep flock optimization, workload prediction
Workload prediction is essential in cloud data centers (CDCs) for establishing scalability and resource elasticity. However, the workload prediction accuracy in the cloud data center could be better due to noise, redundancy, and low performance for workload prediction. This paper designs a hierarchical tree-based deep convolutional neural network (T-CNN) model with sheep flock optimization (SFO) to enhance CDCs’ power efficiency and workload prediction. The kernel method is used to preprocess historical information from the CDCs. Additionally, T-CNN model weight parameters are optimized using SFO. The suggested TCNN-SFO technology has successfully reduced excessive power consumption while correctly forecasting the incoming demand. Further, the proposed model is assessed using two benchmark datasets: Saskatchewan HTTP traces and NASA. The developed model is executed in a Java tool. Therefore, associated with existing methods, the developed technique has achieved higher accuracy of 20.75... [more]
A Comprehensive Examination of Vector-Controlled Induction Motor Drive Techniques
Ahmed G. Mahmoud A. Aziz, Almoataz Y. Abdelaziz, Ziad M. Ali, Ahmed A. Zaki Diab
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: core loss, fuzzy logic, induction motor, intelligent control, magnetic saturation, microprocessor control, model reference, neural networks, observer, sliding mode, vector control
This paper introduces a comprehensive examination of vector-controlled- (VC-) based techniques intended for induction motor (IM) drives. In addition, the evaluation and critique of modern control techniques that improve the performance of IM drives are discussed by considering a systematic literature survey. Detailed research on variable-speed drive control, for instance, VC and scalar control (SCC), was conducted. The SCC-based systems’ speed and V/f control purposes are clarified in closed and open loops of IM drives. The operations, benefits, and drawbacks of the direct and indirect field-oriented control systems are illustrated. Furthermore, the direct torque control (DTC) method for IMs is reviewed. Numerous VC methods established along with microprocessor/digital control, model reference adaptive control (MRAC), sliding mode control (SMC), and intelligent control (in terms of fuzzy logic (FL) and artificial neural networks (ANNs)) are described and examined. Uncertainties in the... [more]
A Novel Energy Accounting Model Using Fuzzy Restricted Boltzmann Machine—Recurrent Neural Network
Sarhang Sorguli, Husam Rjoub
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: adaptive fuzzy Adam optimization algorithm (AFAOA), energy accounting, fuzzy restricted Boltzmann machine, linear-scaling normalization, recurrent neural network (FRBM-RNN)
Energy accounting is a system for regularly measuring, analyzing, and reporting the energy use of various activities. This is done to increase energy efficiency and monitor the impact of energy usage on the environment. Primary energy accounting is now done by determining the amount of fossil fuel energy required to generate it. However, if fossil fuels become scarcer, this strategy becomes less viable. Instead, a new energy accounting approach will be required, one that takes into consideration the intermittent character of the two most prevalent renewable energy sources, wind and solar power. Furthermore, estimation of the energy consumption data collected from household surveys, whether using a recall-based approach or a meter-based one, remains a difficult task. Hence, this paper proposes a novel energy accounting model using Fuzzy Restricted Boltzmann Machine-Recurrent Neural Network (FRBM-RNN). The energy consumption dataset is preprocessed using linear-scaling normalization. The... [more]
Excess Anisotropy: A Method to Predict Frequency of Resistive Fractures in the Wolfcamp Shale
Joanna M. Walker, John P. Castagna
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: anisotropy, fracture prediction, linear regression, resistive fractures
A horizontal well in the Wolfcamp Formation within the Delaware Basin exhibits cross-dipole sonic log anisotropy varying from 0.0% to 29.7% over the reservoir interval. Massive limestones exhibit little anisotropy while shales and intervals with high fracture counts have high anisotropy. Integrated analysis of acoustic, image and triple combo open-hole log data indicates that the computed volume of shale log is a strong predictor of anisotropy with a simple linear relationship. However, there is much anisotropy that is not accounted for by this lithologically related linear relationship. We refer to the residual obtained by subtracting the predicted anisotropy using this relationship from the measured anisotropy from a cross-dipole sonic tool as the excess anisotropy. The excess anisotropy is the remaining anisotropy that is not accounted for by linear regression between the volume of shale log and the measured anisotropy. We find that the excess anisotropy is linearly correlated to th... [more]
Automated Quantification of Wind Turbine Blade Leading Edge Erosion from Field Images
Jeanie A. Aird, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Sara C. Pryor
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: convolutional neural network, image processing, image segmentation, leading edge erosion, Machine Learning, wind energy, wind turbines
Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion is a major source of power production loss and early detection benefits optimization of repair strategies. Two machine learning (ML) models are developed and evaluated for automated quantification of the areal extent, morphology and nature (deep, shallow) of damage from field images. The supervised ML model employs convolutional neural networks (CNN) and learns features (specific types of damage) present in an annotated set of training images. The unsupervised approach aggregates pixel intensity thresholding with calculation of pixel-by-pixel shadow ratio (PTS) to independently identify features within images. The models are developed and tested using a dataset of 140 field images. The images sample across a range of blade orientation, aspect ratio, lighting and resolution. Each model (CNN v PTS) is applied to quantify the percent area of the visible blade that is damaged and classifies the damage into deep or shallow using only the images as inp... [more]
Algorithm for Energy Resource Selection Using Priority Degree-Based Aggregation Operators with Generalized Orthopair Fuzzy Information and Aczel−Alsina Aggregation Operators
Maria Akram, Kifayat Ullah, Goran Ćirović, Dragan Pamucar
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Aczel–Alsina t-norm t-conorm, aggregation operators, energy resource management, multi-criteria group decision making, prioritization, q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets
Many aggregation operators are studied to deal with multi-criteria group decision-making problems. Whenever information has two aspects, intuitionistic fuzzy sets and Pythagorean fuzzy sets are employed to handle the information. However, q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets are more flexible and suitable because they cover information widely. The current paper primarily focuses on the multi-criteria group decision-making technique based on prioritization and two robust aggregation operators based on Aczel−Alsina t-norm and t-conorm. This paper suggests two new aggregation operators based on q-rung orthopair fuzzy information and Aczel−Alsina t-norm and t-conorm, respectively. Firstly, novel q-rung orthopair fuzzy prioritized Aczel−Alsina averaging and q-rung orthopair fuzzy prioritized Aczel−Alsina geometric operators are proposed, involving priority weights of the information. Several related results of the proposed aggregation operators are investigated to see their diversity. A multi-criter... [more]
Bayesian Regularization Neural Network-Based Machine Learning Approach on Optimization of CRDI-Split Injection with Waste Cooking Oil Biodiesel to Improve Diesel Engine Performance
Babu Dharmalingam, Santhoshkumar Annamalai, Sukunya Areeya, Kittipong Rattanaporn, Keerthi Katam, Pau-Loke Show, Malinee Sriariyanun
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Bayesian regularization neural network, central composite design, common rail direct injection diesel engine, mixed waste cooking oil methyl ester, split injection strategy
The present study utilized response surface methodology (RSM) and Bayesian neural network (BNN) to predict the characteristics of a diesel engine powered by a blend of biodiesel and diesel fuel. The biodiesel was produced from waste cooking oil using a biocatalyst synthesized from vegetable waste through the wet impregnation technique. A multilevel central composite design was utilized to predict engine characteristics, including brake thermal efficiency (BTE), nitric oxide (NO), unburned hydrocarbons (UBHC), smoke emissions, heat release rate (HRR), and cylinder peak pressure (CGPP). BNN and the logistic−sigmoid activation function were used to train the experimental data in the artificial neural network (ANN) model, and the errors and correlations of the predicted models were calculated. The study revealed that the biocatalyst was capable of producing a maximum yield of 93% at 55 °C under specific reaction conditions, namely a reaction time of 120 min, a stirrer speed of 900 rpm, a c... [more]
Advanced Optimisation and Forecasting Methods in Power Engineering—Introduction to the Special Issue
Paweł Pijarski, Piotr Kacejko, Piotr Miller
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Machine Learning, metaheuristics, optimisation, power engineering, probability, RES, statistics
Modern power engineering is struggling with various problems that have not been observed before or have occurred very rarely. The main cause of these problems results from the increasing number of connected distributed electricity sources, mainly renewable energy sources (RESs). Therefore, energy generation is becoming more and more diverse, both in terms of technology and location. Grids that have so far worked as receiving networks change their original function and become generation networks. The directions of power flow have changed. In the case of distribution networks, this is manifested by power flows towards transformer stations and further to the network with a higher voltage level. As a result of a large number of RESs, their total share in the total generation increases. This has a significant impact on various aspects of the operation of the power system. Voltage profiles, branch loads, power flows and directions of power flows between areas change. As a result of the rando... [more]
Bacterial Foraging Algorithm for a Neural Network Learning Improvement in an Automatic Generation Controller
Sadeq D. Al-Majidi, Hisham Dawood Salman Altai, Mohammed H. Lazim, Mohammed Kh. Al-Nussairi, Maysam F. Abbod, Hamed S. Al-Raweshidy
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: automatic generation controller, bacterial foraging algorithm, hybrid power system, neural network model, photovoltaic power generation
The frequency diversion in hybrid power systems is a major challenge due to the unpredictable power generation of renewable energies. An automatic generation controller (AGC) system is utilised in a hybrid power system to correct the frequency when the power generation of renewable energies and consumers’ load demand are changing rapidly. While a neural network (NN) model based on a back-propagation (BP) training algorithm is commonly used to design AGCs, it requires a complicated training methodology and a longer processing time. In this paper, a bacterial foraging algorithm (BF) was employed to enhance the learning of the NN model for AGCs based on adequately identifying the initial weights of the model. Hence, the training error of the NN model was addressed quickly when it was compared with the traditional NN model, resulting in an accurate signal prediction. To assess the proposed AGC, a power system with a photovoltaic (PV) generation test model was designed using MATLAB/Simulink... [more]
Quantitative Prediction of Braided Sandbodies Based on Probability Fusion and Multi-Point Geostatistics
Qiangqiang Kang, Jiagen Hou, Liqin Liu, Mingqiu Hou, Yuming Liu
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: Bohai Bay Basin, braided reservoir, multi-point geostatistics, Principal Component Analysis, probability fusion model, Shengli Oilfield
Predicting the spatial distribution of braided fluvial facies reservoirs is of paramount significance for oil and gas exploration and development. Given that seismic materials enjoy an advantage in dense spatial sampling, many methods have been proposed to predict the reservoir distribution based on different seismic attributes. Nevertheless, different seismic attributes have different sensitivities to the reservoirs, and informational redundancy between them makes it difficult to combine them effectively. Regarding reservoir modeling, multi-point geostatistics represents the distribution characteristics of the braided fluvial facies reservoirs effectively. Despite this, it is very difficult to build high-quality training images. Hence, this paper proposes a three-step method of predicting braided fluvial facies reservoirs based on probability fusion and multi-point geostatistics. Firstly, similar statistical data of modern sedimentation and field paleo-outcrops were processed under th... [more]
Mixed-Mode Ventilation Based on Adjustable Air Velocity for Energy Benefits in Residential Buildings
Lichen Su, Jinlong Ouyang, Li Yang
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: air-velocity adjustability, air-velocity adjustment interval, ASHRAE_db II database, envelope curve, mixed-mode ventilation, PMV model, SVM
Energy efficiency and air quality in residential buildings have aroused intensive interest. Generally speaking, the heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system is widely used to regulate indoor environmental spaces. Meanwhile, mixed-mode ventilation has been proven to reduce energy consumption and introduce fresh air effectively. This study aims to discuss the correlations between air velocity, temperature and indoor thermal comfort and establish corresponding statistical models based on the ASHRAE_db II database and the Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). On this basis, the air-velocity adjustment strategy, including determining adjustability and establishing adjustable intervals, is optimized based on support vector machine and envelope curve methods. The results show that the recognition accuracy of the adjustability determination model is over 98%, and the air-velocity adjustable interval in the envelope is increased, facilitating control of mixed-mode ventilation. The case show... [more]
Statistical Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Based on AC Slow Chargers
Dong Sik Kim, Young Mo Chung, Beom Jin Chung
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: charging fee, charging time, Class 3 kW charger, electric vehicle (EV), fuel efficiency
Regarding DC fast chargers, various studies, such as the charge scheduling, have been conducted. On the other hand, research on AC slow chargers has rarely been conducted due to the predictable and simple usage pattern. Despite the long charging times of AC slow chargers, which use the existing electric outlets with relatively low supplied power, these chargers are suitable for daily home charging of electric vehicles (EVs) during the night. Due to their low installation costs, they are likely to be the dominant type of charging equipment. In this paper, the EV charging process based on AC slow chargers, which supply a maximum power of 3 kW from an AC 220 V outlet, is analyzed by constructing a simple charging model. The charging time and fees are statistically derived and investigated. Furthermore, power load curves for charging EVs with the 3 kW charger are observed. From the statistical analyses, we conclude that daily charging of EVs can be an appropriate scenario in using the AC s... [more]
Application of an Artificial Neural Network for Detecting, Classifying, and Making Decisions about Asymmetric Short Circuits in a Synchronous Generator
Marinka Baghdasaryan, Azatuhi Ulikyan, Arusyak Arakelyan
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: asymmetric mode, classification, decision-making, neural network, short circuit, synchronous generator
Fast and accurate detection of emerging faults in synchronous generators, which have found wide application in power and transport systems, contributes to ensuring reliable operation of the entire system. This article presents a new approach to making accurate decisions on the continuation of the operation of damaged generators in accordance with the requirements of IEEE standards. The necessity of limiting the duration of operation of the generator in conditions of asymmetric short circuits in the stator windings is substantiated. The authors of the article, based on an artificial neural network in the Matlab software environment, have developed a model for detecting, classifying, and making quick and accurate decisions about the operation of the generator in the event of asymmetric short circuits in the stator windings of the generator. This makes it possible to simulate the operation of the generator at various parameters. Prior to training the neural network, the database formed by... [more]
Assessment of Selected Determinants Affecting the Acceptance of the Development of Electromobility by the Private and Business Sectors—A Case Study in Portugal
Henrique Ferreira, Susana Silva, Tiago Andrade, Erika Laranjeira, Isabel Soares
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: data analysis, development conditions, electromobility, market sectors, statistical methods
The energy transition requires widespread electrification of the transport sector. To promote the penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), it is essential to understand consumers’ perceptions and behavior, particularly regarding the main determinants of EV purchase and the acceptance of electric mobility (EM). With this aim, we focused on an industrialized city in Portugal, addressing the differences between the effective ownership of an EV and the acceptability of EM and between the domestic sector (DS) and the business sector (BS) through questionnaires. Our results indicate that sociodemographic variables are the main determinants of the purchase of EVs and the acceptance of EM in the DS. Men and higher income individuals are more likely to own an EV. On the other hand, younger generations are more likely to have high EM acceptance. Individuals who already own an EV are the ones that have the desire and economic means to do so, regardless of any incentives. Still, widespread market p... [more]
State of the Art in Designing Fish-Friendly Turbines: Concepts and Performance Indicators
Phoevos (Foivos) Koukouvinis, John Anagnostopoulos
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: experimental methods, fish injury assessment, fish-friendly hydropower, hydropower statistics, Numerical Methods, turbine design considerations
The expanding role of renewable energy sources in the electricity market share implies the increasing role of hydropower and the exploitation of unharnessed hydraulic potential, in the scope of sustainability and net zero emissions. Hydro-turbine design practices are expected to expand beyond achieving high efficiency goals, to multi-objective criteria ranging from efficient reversible operation to fish-friendly concepts. The present review paper outlines fundamental characteristics of hydropower, summarizing its potential impact toward aquatic life. Estimates of lethality for each damage mechanism are discussed, such as barotrauma, blunt impact and shearing, along with relevant advances in experimental techniques. Furthermore, numerical techniques are discussed, ranging from simple particle tracking to fully coupled six-degree-of-freedom tracking, which can be used to investigate candidate designs and their fish-friendly performance, presenting their advantages and disadvantages. Subs... [more]
Predicting the Health Status of a Pulp Press Based on Deep Neural Networks and Hidden Markov Models
Alexandre Martins, Balduíno Mateus, Inácio Fonseca, José Torres Farinha, João Rodrigues, Mateus Mendes, António Marques Cardoso
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: deep neural network, diagnosis, hidden Markov models, Machine Learning, maintenance, prognosis
The maintenance paradigm has evolved over the last few years and companies that want to remain competitive in the market need to provide condition-based maintenance (CBM). The diagnosis and prognosis of the health status of equipment, predictive maintenance (PdM), are fundamental strategies to perform informed maintenance, increasing the company’s profit. This article aims to present a diagnosis and prognosis methodology using a hidden Markov model (HMM) classifier to recognise the equipment status in real time and a deep neural network (DNN), specifically a gated recurrent unit (GRU), to determine this same status in a future of one week. The data collected by the sensors go through several phases, starting by cleaning them. After that, temporal windows are created in order to generate statistical features of the time domain to better understand the equipment’s behaviour. These features go through a normalisation to produce inputs for a feature extraction process, via a principal comp... [more]
Temperature-Based State-of-Charge Estimation Using Neural Networks, Gradient Boosting Machine and a Jetson Nano Device for Batteries
Donghun Wang, Jihwan Hwang, Jonghyun Lee, Minchan Kim, Insoo Lee
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: gated recurrent unit, gradient boosting machine, Jetson Nano device, lithium-ion battery, long short-term memory, multilayer neural network, real time, state of charge, vehicle-driving simulator
Lithium-ion batteries are commonly used in electric vehicles, mobile phones, and laptops because of their environmentally friendly nature, high energy density, and long lifespan. Despite these advantages, lithium-ion batteries may experience overcharging or discharging if they are not continuously monitored, leading to fire and explosion risks, in cases of overcharging, and decreased capacity and lifespan, in cases of overdischarging. Another factor that can decrease the capacity of these batteries is their internal resistance, which varies with temperature. This study proposes an estimation method for the state of charge (SOC) using a neural network (NN) model that is highly applicable to the external temperatures of batteries. Data from a vehicle-driving simulator were used to collect battery data at temperatures of 25 °C, 30 °C, 35 °C, and 40 °C, including voltage, current, temperature, and time data. These data were used as inputs to generate the NN models. The NNs used to generate... [more]
Application of Augmented Echo State Networks and Genetic Algorithm to Improve Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting
Hugo T. V. Gouveia, Murilo A. Souza, Aida A. Ferreira, Jonata C. de Albuquerque, Otoni Nóbrega Neto, Milde Maria da Silva Lira, Ronaldo R. B. de Aquino
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial neural networks, forecasting, genetic algorithms, time series analysis, wind energy
The large-scale integration into electrical systems of intermittent power-generation sources, such as wind power plants, requires greater efforts and knowledge from operators to keep these systems operating efficiently. These sources require reliable output power forecasts to set up the optimal operating point of the electrical system. In previous research, the authors developed an evolutionary approach algorithm called RCDESIGN to optimize the hyperparameters and topology of Echo State Networks (ESN), and applied the model in different time series forecasting, including wind speed. In this paper, RCDESIGN was modified in some aspects of the genetic algorithm, and now it optimizes an ESN with augmented states (ESN-AS) and has been called RCDESIGN-AS. The evolutionary algorithm allows the search for the best parameters and topology of the recurrent neural network to be performed simultaneously. In addition, RCDESIGN-AS has the important characteristic of requiring little computational e... [more]
Comparative Risk Assessment of a Hydrogen Refueling Station Using Gaseous Hydrogen and Formic Acid as the Hydrogen Carrier
Changsoo Kim, Younggeun Lee, Kyeongsu Kim
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: formic acid, hydrogen carrier, hydrogen refueling station, liquefied hydrogen, quantitative risk assessment
To realize a hydrogen economy, many studies are being conducted regarding the development and analysis of hydrogen carriers. Recently, formic acid has been receiving attention as a potential hydrogen carrier due to its high volumetric energy density and relatively safe characteristics. However, hydrogen refueling systems using formic acid are very different from conventional hydrogen refueling stations, and quantitative risks assessments need to be conducted to verify their safe usage. In this study, a comparative safety analysis of a formic acid hydrogen refueling station (FAHRS) and a gaseous hydrogen refueling station (GHRS) was conducted. Since there is no FAHRS under operation, a process simulation model was developed and integrated with quantitative risk assessment techniques to perform safety analysis. Results of the analysis show that the FAHRS poses less risk than the GHRS, where the vapor cloud explosion occurring in the buffer tank is of greatest consequence. A GHRS poses a... [more]
Data-Driven Tools for Building Energy Consumption Prediction: A Review
Razak Olu-Ajayi, Hafiz Alaka, Hakeem Owolabi, Lukman Akanbi, Sikiru Ganiyu
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: building energy consumption prediction, data driven tools, energy conservation, Energy Efficiency, energy prediction, Machine Learning
The development of data-driven building energy consumption prediction models has gained more attention in research due to its relevance for energy planning and conservation. However, many studies have conducted the inappropriate application of data-driven tools for energy consumption prediction in the wrong conditions. For example, employing a data-driven tool to develop a model using a small sample size, despite the recognition of the tool for producing good results in large data conditions. This study delivers a review of 63 studies with a precise focus on evaluating the performance of data-driven tools based on certain conditions; i.e., data properties, the type of energy considered, and the type of building explored. This review identifies gaps in research and proposes future directions in the field of data-driven building energy consumption prediction. Based on the studies reviewed, the outcome of the evaluation of the data-driven tools performance shows that Support Vector Machin... [more]
Electric Vehicle Battery-Connected Parallel Distribution Generators for Intelligent Demand Management in Smart Microgrids
Ali M. Jasim, Basil H. Jasim, Bogdan-Constantin Neagu, Simo Attila
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial neural network, distribution generators, Genetic Algorithm, microgrid, power sharing, secondary control, virtual impedance
Renewable energy penetration increases Smart Grid (SG) instability. A power balance between consumption and production can mitigate this instability. For this, intelligent and optimizing techniques can be used to properly combine and manage storage devices like Electric Vehicle Batteries (EVBs) with Demand-Side Management (DSM) strategies. The EVB helps distribution networks with auxiliary services, backup power, reliability, demand response, peak shaving, lower renewable power production’s climate unpredictability, etc. In this paper, a new energy management system based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is developed to maximize the performance of islanded SG-connected EVBs. The proposed ANN controller can operate at specified periods based on the demand curve and EVB charge level to implement a peak load shaving (PLS) DSM strategy. The intelligent controller’s inputs include the time of day and the EVB’s State of Charge (SOC). After the controller detects a peak demand, it alerts... [more]
Wind Power Forecasts and Network Learning Process Optimization through Input Data Set Selection
Mateusz Dutka, Bogusław Świątek, Zbigniew Hanzelka
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: artificial neural network, meteorological parameters, numerical weather prediction improvement, optimization model, wind power forecasting
Energy policies of the European Union, the United States, China, and many other countries are focused on the growth in the number of and output from renewable energy sources (RES). That is because RES has become increasingly more competitive when compared to conventional sources, such as coal, nuclear energy, oil, or gas. In addition, there is still a lot of untapped wind energy potential in Europe and worldwide. That is bound to result in continuous growth in the share of sources that demonstrate significant production variability in the overall energy mix, as they depend on the weather. To ensure efficient energy management, both its production and grid flow, it is necessary to employ forecasting models for renewable energy source-based power plants. That will allow us to estimate the production volume well in advance and take the necessary remedial actions. The article discusses in detail the development of forecasting models for RES, dedicated, among others, to wind power plants. D... [more]
Evaluation of Empirical Daily Solar Radiation Models for the Northeast Coast of the Iberian Peninsula
Anton Vernet, Alexandre Fabregat
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: empirical models, Mediterranean area, regression, solar radiation
The ability to accurately predict daily solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface is essential in applications such as solar power generation. Given their ease of use, many empirical models have been proposed based on different dependent variables such as cloud cover, daily temperature range, etc. In this study we evaluate 23 of these models for the prediction of daily solar radiation in the northern coastal zone of the Iberian Peninsula. Daily measurements during the period 2000−2018 from 16 meteorological stations spread over this area are used to adjust the parameters of each model, whose predictive capacity is then evaluated using measurements made between 2019 and 2022. Using different statistical metrics to assess their predictive performance, it was found that models based on hours of sunshine and level of cloudiness are significantly more accurate than those based on maximum and minimum daily temperature and day of the year. Specifically, the sunshine-based model by SBM3 obt... [more]
Understanding the Influence of Biochar Augmentation in Anaerobic Digestion by Principal Component Analysis
Jessica Quintana-Najera, A. John Blacker, Louise A. Fletcher, Andrew B. Ross
April 18, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biochar, principal component analysis, pyrolysis
Biochar addition in anaerobic digestion has been repeatedly reported to improve methane production, however, this ability is not well understood. This work aims to understand and correlate the most important factors influencing anaerobic digestion performance using principal component analysis along with quantitative and qualitative descriptive analysis to evaluate the variations of methane production with the addition of biochar. Reports from the literature using biochar produced from several feedstocks under variable pyrolysis conditions and therefore different compositions were carefully gathered and compared with their own non-biochar controls. Woody-derived biochars, produced at 450−550 °C, containing an ash content of 3.1−6.3%, and an O:C ratio of 0.20, were responsible for having the greatest positive effect. The amount of biochar added to the digesters also influences anaerobic digestion performance. Increasing biochar loads favours the production rate, although this can be det... [more]
On the Summarization of Meteorological Data for Solar Thermal Power Generation Forecast
Icaro Figueiredo Vilasboas, Julio Augusto Mendes da Silva, Osvaldo José Venturini
April 17, 2023 (v1)
Keywords: concentrating solar thermal power, effective direct normal irradiance, Finkelstein–Schafer statistic, historical whether data representation, typical meteorological day
The establishment of the typical weather conditions of a given locality is of fundamental importance to determine the optimal configurations for solar thermal power plants and to calculate feasibility indicators in the power plant design phase. Therefore, this work proposes a summarization method to statistically represent historical weather data using typical meteorological days (TMDs) based on the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and hourly normalized root mean square difference (nRMSD). The proposed approach is compared with regular Sandia selection in forecasting the electricity produced by a solar thermal power plant in ten different Brazilian cities. Considering the determination of the annual generation of electricity, the results obtained show that when considering an overall average of weather characteristics, commonly used for analyzing solar thermal power plant designs, the normalized mean average error (nMAE) is 20.8 ± 4.8% relative to the use of historical data of 20... [more]
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