Browse
Subjects
Records with Subject: Optimization
639. LAPSE:2023.22310
Quantifying Electricity Supply Resilience of Countries with Robust Efficiency Analysis
March 24, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: data envelopment analysis, electricity supply, energy security, ratio-based efficiency model, resilience, robustness analysis
The interest in studying energy systems’ resilience is increasing due to a rising awareness of the importance of having a secure energy supply. This growing trend is a result of a series of recent disruptions, among others also affecting electricity systems. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for policymakers to determine whether their country has a resilient electricity supply. Starting from a set of 12 indicators, this paper uses data envelopment analysis (DEA) to comprehensively evaluate the electricity supply resilience of 140 countries worldwide. Two DEA models are applied: (1) the original ratio-based Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) model and (2) a novel hybrid framework for robust efficiency analysis incorporating linear programming and Monte Carlo simulations. Results show that the CCR model deems 31 countries as efficient and hence lacks the capability to differentiate them. Furthermore, the CCR model considers only the best weight vectors for each country, which are not... [more]
640. LAPSE:2023.22294
Pre-Drilling Production Forecasting of Parent and Child Wells Using a 2-Segment Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) Method Based on an Analytical Flow-Cell Model Scaled by a Single Type Well
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: Cluster Spacing Optimization, Decline Curve Analysis, Estimated Ultimate Recovery, Flow-Cell Model, Fracture Treatment Design, Parent and Child Wells, Well Spacing Optimization
This paper advances a practical tool for production forecasting, using a 2-segment Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) method, based on an analytical flow-cell model for multi-stage fractured shale wells. The flow-cell model uses a type well and can forecast the production rate and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of newly planned wells, accounting for changes in completion design (fracture spacing, height, half-length), total well length, and well spacing. The basic equations for the flow-cell model have been derived in two earlier papers, the first one dedicated to well forecasts with fracture down-spacing, the second one to well performance forecasts when inter-well spacing changes (and for wells drilled at different times, to account for parent-child well interaction). The present paper provides a practical workflow, introduces correction parameters to account for acreage quality and fracture treatment quality. Further adjustments to the flow-cell model based 2-segment DCA method are mad... [more]
641. LAPSE:2023.22292
Coal Demand and Environmental Regulations: A Case Study of the Polish Power Sector
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: coal consumption, environmental regulations, linear programming, mathematical modeling, power generation
The impact of environmental regulations implemented in the power industry that affect the consumption of solid fuels is of key importance to coal-based power generation systems, such as that in Poland. In this context, the main purpose of the paper was to determine the future demand for hard coal and brown coal in the Polish power sector by 2050 with reference to the environmental regulations implemented in the power sector. To achieve these goals, a mathematical model was developed using the linear programming approach, which reflected the key relationships between the hard and brown coal mining sector and the power sector in the context of the environmental regulations discussed. The environmental regulations selected had a great influence on the future demand for hard and brown coal in the power generation sector. The scope of this influence depended on particular regulations. The prices of CO2 emission allowances and stricter emissions standards stemming from the Industrial Emissio... [more]
642. LAPSE:2023.22278
Optimal Management of the Energy Flows of Interconnected Residential Users
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: dynamic programming, micro-CHP, Optimization, residential user
In recent years, residential users have begun to be equipped with micro-CHP (combined heat and power) generation technologies with the aim of decreasing primary energy consumption and reducing environmental impact. In these systems, the prime mover supplies both thermal and electrical energy, and an auxiliary boiler and the national electrical grid are employed as supplementary systems. In this paper, a simulation model, which accounts for component efficiency and energy balance, was developed to replicate the interaction between the users and the energy systems in order to minimize primary energy consumption. The simulation model identified the optimal operation strategy of two residential users by investigating different energy system configurations by means of a dynamic programming algorithm. The reference scenario was compared to three different scenarios by considering independent energy systems, shared thermal and electrical energy storage and also the shared prime mover. Such a... [more]
643. LAPSE:2023.22252
Preparation and Application of Magnetic Nano-Solid Acid Catalyst Fe3O4-PDA-SO3H
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: esterification, levulinic acid, magnetic nano-catalyst
A magnetic nano-solid acid catalyst Fe3O4-PDA-SO3H was synthetized through an efficient method, as an eco-friendly and more efficient catalyst. The obtained catalyst has uniform core-shell structure, appropriate particle size, and high acid density. Fe3O4-PDA-SO3H was applied to catalyze the esterification of levulinic acid (LA) with alcohols of different chain length to produce the levulinate esters. The catalytic effect was optimized from the aspects of catalyst dosage, reaction temperature, and acid-alcohol molar ratio. Furthermore, the response surface optimization method was used to obtain the optimal conditions. Verified under these conditions, the experimental results showed that the conversion rate of LA can reach 95.87%, which was much higher than common cationic exchange resin Amberlyst 36 and Amberlyst 46. Furthermore, the recovery and reuse of the Fe3O4-PDA-SO3H was demonstrated six times without obvious loss in the activity.
644. LAPSE:2023.22242
A Framework for Flexible and Cost-Efficient Retrofit Measures of Heat Exchanger Networks
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: critical points, flexibility, heat exchanger network (HEN), multi-period, Optimization, retrofit
Retrofitting of industrial heat recovery systems can contribute significantly to meeting energy efficiency targets for industrial plants. One issue to consider when screening retrofit design proposals is that industrial heat recovery systems must be able to handle variations, e.g., in inlet temperatures or heat capacity flow rates, in such a way that operational targets are reached. Consequently, there is a need for systematic retrofitting methodologies that are applicable to multi-period heat exchanger networks (HENs). In this study, a framework was developed to achieve flexible and cost-efficient retrofit measures of (industrial) HENs. The main idea is to split the retrofitting processes into several sub-steps. This splitting allows well-proven (single period) retrofit methodologies to be used to generate different design proposals, which are collected in a superstructure. By means of structural feasibility assessment, structurally infeasible design proposals can be discarded from fu... [more]
645. LAPSE:2023.22204
Effectiveness of Scenedesmus sp. Biomass Grow and Nutrients Removal from Liquid Phase of Digestates
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: anaerobic digestion, liquid digestate, microalgae, photobioreactor
One of the most important factors in determining the profitable production of microalgae biomass is the use of a cost effective growth medium that is rich in nutrients. The objective of the study was to determine the possibility of using digestates from anaerobic digestion of different feedstock mixtures as the media for Scenedesmus sp. cultivation. A different liquid digestate composition was obtained in terms of organic compounds, phosphorus, and nitrogen concentrations, depending on the substrates used in the anaerobic digestion. It was found that the highest biomass production was obtained when using digestate from anaerobic digestion of the feedstock mainly composed of microalgae biomass, which was characterized by low organic compounds concentration. In this case, the average biomass concentration reached 2382 mg total solids/L. A lower Scenedesmus sp. biomass yield was obtained using digestate from anaerobic digester processing feedstock based on maize silage and cattle menure.... [more]
646. LAPSE:2023.22194
Efficiency Optimization for All-Silicon Carbide (SiC) PWM Rectifier Considering the Impact of Gate-Source Voltage Interference
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: converter efficiency, Kelvin package, loss distribution, silicon carbide semiconductors
Compared with conventional silicon (Si)-based Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) rectifiers, PWM rectifiers based on silicon carbide (SiC) Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor Field-Effect Transistors (MOSFETs) have significant technical advantages and broad application prospects in terms of efficiency and power density, inherited from the high-speed switching feature. However, high-speed switching also induces gate-source voltage interference, which impacts the overall character of the conversion system. This paper considered the impact of gate-source voltage interference on loss, revealing an efficiency optimization for all-SiC PWM rectifiers. Firstly, this paper theoretically investigated the mechanism of improving the conversion system efficiency by using the 4-pin Kelvin packaged SiC MOSFETs. Then, based on the industrial product case study, loss distribution, using different package styles, was quantitatively analyzed. Finally, experiment test results verified the efficiency improvement of the PW... [more]
647. LAPSE:2023.22193
Development of Algorithms for Effective Resource Allocation among Highway−Rail Grade Crossings: A Case Study for the State of Florida
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: crossing hazard, heuristics, highway–rail grade crossings, Optimization, resource allocation, smart cities
Smart cities directly rely on a variety of elements, including water, gas, electricity, buildings, services, transportation networks, and others. Lack of properly designed transportation networks may cause different economic and safety concerns. Highway−rail grade crossings are known to be a hazardous point in the transportation network, considering a remarkable number of accidents recorded annually between highway users and trains, and even solely between highway users at highway−rail grade crossings. Hence, safety improvement at highway−rail grade crossings is a challenging issue for smart city authorities, given limitations in monetary resources. In this study, two optimization models are developed for resource allocation among highway−rail grade crossings to minimize the overall hazard and the overall hazard severity, taking into account the available budget limitations. The optimization models are solved by CPLEX to the global optimality. Moreover, some heuristic algorithms are pr... [more]
648. LAPSE:2023.22171
PV System Predictive Maintenance: Challenges, Current Approaches, and Opportunities
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: degradation, grid-tied, net-metering, Optimization, quality assurance, responsive, ROI, solar energy, system-level, third party evaluation
Within the United States solar energy industry, there is a general motto of “set it and forget it” with solar energy. This notion is derived from much of the research and reliability studies around the photovoltaic (PV) panels themselves, not necessarily the PV system as a whole (including the inverter and other components). This implies that maintenance and regular monitoring is not needed. Yet many things can go wrong to cause the actual performance to deviate from the expected performance. If failures and/or unanticipated degradation issues go undetected, they will lead to reduced energy generation (and associated electricity credits) and/or potential loss of component warranty because of manufacturer turnover. Given the size of the problem and gaps with current solutions, the authors propose that PV system owners need an unbiased third-party off-the-shelf system-level predictive maintenance tool to optimize return-on-investment and minimize time to warranty claim in PV installation... [more]
649. LAPSE:2023.22153
A Novel Energy Management Strategy for a Ship’s Hybrid Solar Energy Generation System Using a Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: energy management strategy, hybrid solar energy generation system, multi-objective optimization, partial swarm optimization algorithm, solar energy
Due to the pressures caused by the energy crisis, environmental pollution, and international regulations, the largest ship-producing nations are exploring renewable resources, such as wind power, solar energy, and fuel cells to save energy and develop more environmentally-friendly ships. Solar energy has recently attracted a great deal of attention from both academics and practitioners; furthermore, the optimization of energy management has become a research topic of great interest. This paper takes a solar-diesel hybrid ship with 5000 car spaces as its research object. Then, following testing on this ship, experimental data were obtained, a multi-objective optimization model related to the ship’s fuel economy and diesel generator’s efficiency was established, and a partial swarm optimization algorithm was used to solve a multi-objective problem. The results show that the optimized energy management strategy for a hybrid energy system should be tested under different electrical loads.... [more]
650. LAPSE:2023.22142
Improved Particle Swarm Optimization for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: local search, Particle Swarm Optimization, sea surface temperature, sea surface temperature prediction, similarity measure, support vector machine
The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is one of the key factors affecting ocean climate change. Hence, Sea Surface Temperature Prediction (SSTP) is of great significance to the study of navigation and meteorology. However, SST data is well-known to suffer from high levels of redundant information, which makes it very difficult to realize accurate predictions, for instance when using time-series regression. This paper constructs a simple yet effective SSTP model, dubbed DSL (given its origination from methods known as DTW, SVM and LSPSO). DSL is based on time-series similarity measure, multiple pattern learning and parameter optimization. It consists of three parts: (1) using Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) to mine the similarities in historical SST series; (2) training a Support Vector Machine (SVM) using the top-k similar patterns, deriving a robust SSTP model that offers a 5-day prediction window based on multiple SST input sequences; and (3) developing an improved Particle Swarm Optimization... [more]
651. LAPSE:2023.22082
Conditional-Robust-Profit-Based Optimization Model for Electricity Retailers with Shiftable Demand
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: conditional robust profit, electricity procurement, risk management, risk-averse retailer, shiftable load
This paper investigates the problem of how to deploy customers’ shiftable load (SL) for electricity retailers’ risk management under uncertainty of the day-ahead (DA) wholesale market price. The robust profit (RP) and the conditional robust profit (CRP) are introduced for a risk-averse retailer’s risk-reward trade-off analysis in its decision-making of electricity procurement from various options. A CRP-based bi-level optimization model is proposed for the risk-averse retailer to determine its electricity procurement strategy taking into consideration customers’ shiftable load. In the upper problem, the retailer decides its electricity procurement from various options and the SL incentive prices to maximize its CRP under a given confidence level, and in the lower problem, the customers shift their load according to the SL incentive prices to minimize their comprehensive costs including the discomfort cost caused by rescheduling electricity consumption. Finally, a case study is used to... [more]
652. LAPSE:2023.22066
Cost Optimization of a Stand-Alone Hybrid Energy System with Fuel Cell and PV
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Renewable energy has become very popular in recent years. The amount of renewable generation has increased in both grid-connected and stand-alone systems. This is because it can provide clean energy in a cost-effective and environmentally friendly fashion. Among all varieties, photovoltaic (PV) is the ultimate rising star. Integration of other technologies with solar is enhancing the efficiency and reliability of the system. In this paper a fuel cell−solar photovoltaic (FC-PV)-based hybrid energy system has been proposed to meet the electrical load demand of a small community center in India. The system is developed with PV panels, fuel cell, an electrolyzer and hydrogen storage tank. Detailed mathematical modeling of this system as well as its operation algorithm have been presented. Furthermore, cost optimization has been performed to determine ratings of PV and Hydrogen system components. The objective is to minimize the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of this standalone system... [more]
653. LAPSE:2023.22027
Optimization Design of an Axial Split-Phase Bearingless Flywheel Machine with Magnetic Sleeve and Pole-Shoe Tooth by RSM and DE Algorithm
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: axial split-phase, bearingless flywheel machine, differential evolution algorithm, parameter optimization, response surface methodology
In order to improve the suspension and torque performance of a bearingless flywheel machine, a new type of axial split-phase bearingless flywheel machine with a magnetic sleeve and pole-shoe tooth is analyzed and optimized as described in this paper. Based on the basic structure and working characteristics of the machine, the response surface methodology (RSM) and differential evolution (DE) algorithm are adopted to further optimize the parameters of the stator teeth of the machine to improve the radial space utilization and motor output performance. Firstly, the Box−Behnken design (BBD) and finite element analysis (FEA) are combined to select the representative optimization parameter combinations to establish the sample data space, and the response surface models of machine torque and suspension force are established using the least square method. Besides this, the DE algorithm is employed to obtain the optimal tooth profile parameter configuration for the multi-objective optimization... [more]
654. LAPSE:2023.22026
Stochastic Optimization of Microgrid Participating Day-Ahead Market Operation Strategy with Consideration of Energy Storage System and Demand Response
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: day-ahead market, demand response, energy storage system, microgrid operation, Stochastic Optimization
More and more attention has been paid to the development of renewable energy in the world. Microgrids with flexible regulation abilities provide an effective way to solve the problem of renewable energy connected to power grids. In this article, an optimization strategy of a microgrid participating in day-ahead market operations considering demand responses is proposed, where the uncertainties of distributed renewable energy generation, electrical load, and day-ahead market prices are taken into account. The results show that, when the microgrid implements the demand response, the operation cost of the microgrid decreases by 4.17%. Meanwhile, the demand response program can transfer the peak load of the high-price period to the low-price period, which reduces the peak valley difference of the load and stabilizes the load curve. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of three factors is carried out, finding that, with the increase of the demand response adjustable ratio or the maximum capacity... [more]
655. LAPSE:2023.22024
Maximum Power Point Tracking Technology of Photovoltaic Array under Partial Shading Based On Adaptive Improved Differential Evolution Algorithm
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: DC-DC converter, differential evolution algorithm, MPPT, photovoltaic array
In the case of partial shading conditions, there will be more than one maximum power point (MPP) in photovoltaic (PV) array. The traditional maximum power point tracking (MPPT) methods are easy to get in the local maximum power point (LMPP) and fail. Based on the standard differential evolution (DE) algorithm, the mutation strategy, scaling factor F, and cross factor CR of the algorithm are optimized. Also, the population position variance δ 2 is used to prevent falling into LMPP. Finally, the conditions for algorithm termination and restart are set. It is verified by simulation that the method has fast convergence speed, high accuracy, and can adapt well to changes in the external environment. The improved DE algorithm has a great advantage in MPPT.
656. LAPSE:2023.22002
PSO-Based Oscillatory Stability Assessment by Using the Torque Coefficients for SMIB
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: eigenvalues, least square method, oscillatory stability, Particle Swarm Optimization, synchronizing and damping torque coefficients
This study discusses the evaluation of oscillatory stability based on the synchronizing K s and damping K d torque coefficients for a single-machine system connected to an infinite bus (SMIB). Particle swarm optimization (PSO) technique is used to determine K s and K d values and subsequently identify the oscillatory stability conditions in the SMIB. The ability of PSO is compared with those of evolutionary programming (EP) techniques and artificial immune system (AIS). The least square (LS) method is selected as the benchmark for K s and K d values determined by PSO, EP, and AIS. Simulation results show that PSO successfully estimated K s and K d values closest to LS compared with EP and AIS. PSO also uses lower computational time compared with those of the two other techniques. The proposed technique is suitable for solving oscillatory stability problems based on the determination of eigenvalues and minimum damping ratio... [more]
657. LAPSE:2023.21990
A Reliability-Based Network Reconfiguration Model in Distribution System with DGs and ESSs Using Mixed-Integer Programming
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: customer interruption duration, distribution generation, distribution system reconfiguration, energy storage system, mixed-integer programming, switch
Widely used distribution generations (DGs) and energy storage systems (ESSs) enable a distribution system to have a more flexible fault reconfiguration capability. In order to enhance the service reliability and the benefit of distribution networks with DGs and ESSs, this paper proposes a novel distribution system reconfiguration (DSR) model including DGs and ESSs. Meanwhile, the impact of sectionalizing switches and tie switches on reliability is considered. The concept of “boundary switch” is introduced for quantifying the customer interruption duration. The DSR model is presented to minimize the sum of the customer interruption cost, the operation cost of switches, and the depreciation cost of DGs and ESSs. Furthermore, the proposed model is converted into a mixed-integer linear programming, which can be efficiently solved by commercial solvers. Finally, the validity and efficiency of the proposed DSR model are verified by a modified IEEE 33-bus system and a modified PG&E69-bus netw... [more]
658. LAPSE:2023.21960
Electric VehiclesEnergy Management with V2G/G2V Multifactor Optimization of Smart Grids
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: distributed generation, electric vehicles, energy management, Optimization, smart grid
Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and Distributed Generation (DG) are topics in a large number of recent research works. Moreover, given the increasing adoption of EVs, high capacity EV batteries can be used as ESS, as most vehicles remain idle for long periods during work or home parking. However, the high EV penetration introduces some issues related to the charging power requirements, thereby increasing the peak demand for microgrids where EV chargers are installed. In addition, photovoltaic distributed generation is becoming another issue to deal with in EV charging microgrids. Therefore, this new scenario requires an Energy Management System (EMS) able to deal with charging demand, as well as with generation intermittency. This paper presents an EMS strategy for Microgrids that contain an EV parking lot (EVM), Photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and dynamic loads connected to the grid considering a Point of Common Coupling (PCC). The EVM-EMS utilizes the projections of future PV generation and f... [more]
659. LAPSE:2023.21927
Automated Design Optimization of a Mono Tiltrotor in Hovering and Cruising States
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: BEMT, figure of merit, mono tiltrotor (MTR), multi-objective optimization, propulsive efficiency
A mono tiltrotor (MTR) design which combines concepts of a tiltrotor and coaxial rotor is presented. The aerodynamic modeling of the MTR based on blade element momentum theory (BEMT) is conducted, and the method is fully validated with previous experimental data. An automated optimization approach integrating BEMT modeling and optimization algorithms is developed. Parameters such as inter-rotor spacing, blade twist, taper ratio and aspect ratio are chosen as design variables. Single-objective (in hovering or in cruising state) optimizations and multi-objective (both in hovering and cruising states) optimizations are studied at preset design points; i.e., hovering trim and cruising trim. Two single-objective optimizations result in different sets of parameter selections according to the different design objectives. The multi-objective optimization is applied to obtain an identical and compromised selection of design parameters. An optimal point is chosen from the Pareto front of the mul... [more]
660. LAPSE:2023.21902
Multi-Objective Optimization and Matching of Power Source for PHEV Based on Genetic Algorithm
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: fuel economy, Genetic Algorithm, lightweight, matching, Optimization, PHEV
Power system parameter matching is one of the key technologies in the development of hybrid electric vehicles. The power source is the key component of the power system which composed of engine, motor, and battery. Reasonable power source parameters are conducive to improve the power, fuel economy, and emission performance of vehicles. In this paper, regarding the problem that the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) parameter matching needs to weigh different design objectives, a multi-objective optimization and matching method based on a genetic algorithm is proposed. The vehicle dynamic model is established based on MATLAB/Simulink (Mathworks in Natick, Massachusetts, USA), and the feasibility of the model is verified by simulation. The main performance parameters of the power source are matched by theoretical analysis, and the PHEV integrated optimization simulation platform is established based on Isight(Dassault Systemes in Paris, France) and MALTAB/Simulink. Power source compo... [more]
661. LAPSE:2023.21890
Optimizing Energy Consumption in Transportation: Literature Review, Insights, and Research Opportunities
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: efficient energy consumption, intelligent algorithms, optimization problems, Sustainability, transportation systems
From airplanes to electric vehicles and trains, modern transportation systems require large quantities of energy. These vast amounts of energy have to be produced somewhere—ideally by using sustainable sources—and then brought to the transportation system. Energy is a scarce and costly resource, which cannot always be produced from renewable sources. Therefore, it is critical to consume energy as efficiently as possible, that is, transportation activities need to be carried out with an optimal intake of energetic means. This paper reviews existing work on the optimization of energy consumption in the area of transportation, including road freight, passenger rail, maritime, and air transportation modes. The paper also analyzes how optimization methods—of both exact and approximate nature—have been used to deal with these energy-optimization problems. Finally, it provides insights and discusses open research opportunities regarding the use of new intelligent algorithms—combining metaheur... [more]
662. LAPSE:2023.21833
Analysis and Design of Damping Circuit Parameters for LCC Valves Based on Broadband Model
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: broadband model, converter valve, damping circuit, parameter optimization
Damping circuits are installed inside the converter valve to limit commutation overshoots. They have significant effects on the valve’s turn-off performances, which should be carefully considered in parameter design. First, the calculation models for the turn-off process are discussed, including the conventional low frequency model and the broadband model. Then, it is found that high-frequency equipment parameters have significant effects on the transient valve voltage, which means that the conventional analytical methods based on low-frequency models is not suitable for damping circuit parameter design. The relationships between the turn-off performances and damping circuit parameters have also been analyzed in detail with the broadband model. To achieve better economic efficiency, this paper proposes a novel method for damping circuit parameter optimization, which combines the electromagnetic transient (EMT) calculation and the numerical optimization. Last, the case study is carried... [more]
663. LAPSE:2023.21820
Optimization of Electric Energy Sales Strategy Based on Probabilistic Forecasts
March 23, 2023 (v1)
Subject: Optimization
Keywords: electricity market, probabilistic forecast, quantile regression, strategy optimization, value at risk
In this paper we propose an optimization scheme for a selling strategy of an electricity producer who in advance decides on the share of electricity sold on the day-ahead market. The remaining part is sold on the complementary (intraday/balancing) market. To this end, we use probabilistic forecasts of the future selling price distribution. Next, we find an optimal share of electricity sold on the day-ahead market using one of the three objectives: maximization of the overall profit, minimization of the sellers risk, or maximization of the median of portfolio values. Using data from the Polish day-ahead and balancing markets, we show that the assumed objective is achieved, as compared to the naive strategy of selling the whole produced electricity only on the day-ahead market. However, an increase of the profit is associated with a significant increase of the risk.
[Show All Subjects]

